Having tried it once, I’m continuing with this live blogging malarkey for the first proper run-through of the second semi-final. Quick impressions of each act after they have performed will appear below. Update the page for the latest.
I can’t help but be impressed by Rybak’s certainty on stage, and I’m tapping my toes too. It looks very polished, and there’s not even an audience watching yet. Romania’s Humans now have face paint, and lead singer Cristina is very strong hitting the middle-eight big notes into a gale force wind.
There’s plenty of conviction in the Serbian performance, but gosh it feels like a long three minutes to these non-Balkan ears. The San Marino dancers and rapper are now wearing rain macs; the robot sign isn’t so witty; and the Swedish journalist on our table who arrived yesterday is laughing manically throughout.
Denmark’s Viking hoard have extra make-up – they look like Conchita after six months in the wilderness. There’s more snow now – not as much as Ireland, but enough to paralyse the British rail network. Russia have polished their weak song both visually and vocally. It no longer looks like they are actively trying not to qualify. There’s a break afterwards, and Rybak is the first green room interviewee.
I didn’t think the Moldovan staging could be any more polished and perfectly timed, but the Doredos trio have just proved me wrong. Great stuff. There was a delay before and after the Netherlands, presumably getting his podiums on and off stage. Waylon is attempting to be the first person to take leopard-print to Eurovision victory. The camera angles are tighter on his krumping outlaws.
Australia’s Jessica is looking and sounding more comfortable on stage today, if not quite totally there. There’s backing vocals in more parts of the song now, and she’s not aiming for every single big note. I’d love a repeat of Georgia’s surprise 2016 qualification. The Iriao boys sound lovely, even if it’s better suited to a lazy Sunday morning than a late Saturday night.
The TV feed failed intermittently during the Polish rehearsal, which meant we were deprived of at least ten Gromee wave-hands moments. Gutted. Actually, Lukas is selling this well to the camera even if he’s not perfect on every falsetto note. The TV feed problems continued for Malta – showing static and cutting out. As if there wasn’t enough of the performance that already looked like interference. A break follows.
If anything’s going to turn me on to screaming metal, it’s ‘Taboo’, so this running order works out well for Hungary. I imagine a moshing audience is going to help too. Latvia’s Laura is as before, and her weakest moment vocally still comes when she returns to the mic about two-thirds through.
There were problems with the Swedish prop which meant we switched to Montenegro instead. I feel like an eight-year-old who’s been promised a Scalextric for Christmas, and gets a yo-yo. This is as it’s always been, and so is Slovenia, unfortunately. Why you’d ruin a strong performance of a contemporary song with a desperate technical “fail” is beyond me.
Things are looking up for Ukraine’s Melovin, after the failure of his gothic brother from another mother Alekseev and the other bloc countries yesterday. This feels like one of the stronger efforts in this semi. Still no sign of Benjamin’s big prop, by the way – those Swedes will do anything to get the pimp slot.
Finally, Sweden. Benjamin’s in fine voice and looking at the camera like the pop star he is. Did you expect anything else? The reprise features San Marino’s Jessica earnestly singing at her mini-robot.
Slovenia never get it right do they? Remember the sodding headphones in 2015? A good song and in with a chance. Idiots.
Do you think Sweden can win? They just won 2 times in last 5 years. I don’t think Sweden will win 3rd time in 6 years, we can’t go stockholm everytime.
As another poster put it so eloquently, if all the other contenders go tits up, Sweden can win it. Never bet against Sweden has been my rule for many years, but I’m talking top 5, top 10 market. Some here think that Sweden this year will be lucky to get top ten. Possibly the same people who said Frans wouldn’t have even qualified if Mans hadn’t gained an automatic qualification by winning the previous year, and thought that Mans had no chance..
Taking the mood in Lisbon people are polarised on Dance You Off. They either love it or hate it. The other thing I’m hearing is that people are “sick of Sweden.”
My personal feeling is it’s just a little too un-authentic to win. It’s a bit too “Music by Numbers.”
BTW the Swedish journalist might be laughing because he knows something. Try to pump him for information please.
Sweden is very professionally produced plastic and Norway is fanwank that is far too poor and dated. I wonder if meaty Moldova could take the semi win?
How would you describe Moldova if those are plastic and fanwank?
It’s a vote magnet.
Aside from the Kirkorov connections who are guaranteed to bring 12p from Russia, it looks too cheesy to win a semifinal. Q? sure. top 10 place? pretty confident. SF winner? Not quite there.
What about Ukraine? Plenty of support, in the pimp slot, memorable staging and apparently improved vocals?
Russia are currently 2.2 on Betfair to qualify. Surely way too long given their friends
I do wonder if the diaspora will turn out for Yulia. It’s undeniably essential they do for this to qualify but Russian’s really don’t seem impressed with her selection. Maybe when push comes to shove those outside will pick up the phone? Even then, I can’t see a huge amount of jury votes here. Their neighbours baring Moldova here pretty much hate them.
Do you guys know the efffect of the jewish community living across Europe and ex Soviet countries?
The Jewish diaspora is really spread out. In addition it’s not axiomatic that they will vote for Israel. I think it’s more the other way round, that Israeli voters will have a preference for those countries or individuals that are seen as sympathetic. We’ve had this discussion before on this site and I think the general consensus was that the factors more or less cancelled each other out. The countries that have the most links to Russia are Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Moldova, Latvia etc. Finland has quite a sizeable Russian population too. That’s why even though the song is rubbish, I wouldn’t bet on a NQ. It’s worth remembering that the UK has 150,000 Russian residents and a similar number of Latvians, about 40% of whom are ethnic Russians and identify with Russia because of what they see as discrimination in Latvia. It’s all a bit of a hornet’s nest. However it’s pretty certain that Poland will get more televotes from us than it deserves.
In the ex-Soviet pecking order, all the others in my opinion have more of a reason to vote for them than Russia’s does. Moldova: duh. Ukraine: catchier song and has a draw advantage. Latvia: questionable televote but has a bigger jury appeal. And of course you have Rybak ready to sweep up those Eastern votes.
Not all of them are going to qualify I don’t think.
Germany: this escnation live blog review from today exquisitely sums up how I feel about the German song:
“Germany – the staging for this is incredible! The screen starts with the words of the lyrics in animation, then childhood stills of him and his Dad (I think). His vocals are superb, he’s connecting with the camera for every second of this and there are very few “wasted” wide shots. The staging/shooting/lighting/sound of this are as close to perfect as I could imagine, and can see this lapping up votes from everywhere. How this isn’t in contention for a win in the odds is beyond me.”
Lithuania is in the same half. They aim for the exact same audience. They might cancel each other out.
Diasgree Dan. One song is about timeless in-love with your partner; the other is about coping with and reflection of the bereavement of a parent. A girl and a guy performers. Very different staging and song styles.
They’re similar in that they both strum the heart strings.
This is underwritten (and under-researched) as I don’t have the time to expand it as I should, or at least could.
This Eurovision, more than others, I feel I’m noticing a Dance Crew battle developing.
There’s 7 crews that come to mind. (In current betting market order of importance) Those representing Cyprus (@3.4), Norway (@6), Israel (@7.6), (at a stretch) Moldova (@32), Czech Republic (@60), Finland (@100) and the Netherlands (@270). Ireland (@100) could possibly be included, too. Thinking through why Ireland might not come under the classification of “dance crew” is instructive, in of itself. As dance-based as anything, Sweden (@23) is in its own unique category.
My question is: if pushed, which one would you like to join? Other questions could include: which one do you like the most? Which one do you respect the most?
Thoughts on Cyprus.
I have a lot of respect for Eleni. She’s dancing at a heck of a lick, with body gyrating and bending this, that and every angle, while delivering an excellent (if not understandably perfect) vocal. Dancer-singers prefer to keep their upper body still, on an upright plane, so as to limit any disruptive effect on their breath control. None of that with Eleni. She’s going full tilt. I can imagine juries will be impressed and make certain allowances (to a degree) for any vocal shakiness (though not for any evidence of being out of tune). Her very, very noticeably breathy “thank you everyone” etc piece at song’s end is a savvy move.
The dance show is perhaps a little over-sexualised for the tastes of a Saturday night peak-time audience, but many music videos are verging on soft porn anyway. Last week, I was round at a friend’s who happened to have a Lady Gaga playlist on in the background. Video after video seemed to follow the same pattern of Gaga strutting around in her knickers and bikini bra combo while dry-humping the bejesus out of one or more of her stud muffin dance crew. And there’s a tonne of male rapper led videos featuring the main man by the pool of his mansion, with the camera focusing on him and the bikini arses of the bevy of beach body ready talent all evidently eager to take a ride on the alpha male one-man bling showcase.
Still, Eleni is a very, very sexual performer. Which works well for the song. She has a touch of Shakira cuteness about her, too. Eleni is a super-sexualised Loreen selling lap-dance Fire rather than Tai Chi Euphoria?
On rewatch, I have to say that Cyprus is very impressive; more impressive on the revisit. Eleni is unquestionably the leader of the crew. Actually, I barely looked at her dance team. But I can see why this sexy party banger might not be everyone’s cup of Earl Grey.
Will add more thoughts and observations at another time.
If anyone wants to add their thoughts on this or any other act, please be my guest.
I get Ruslana (2004 winner) from Eleni. The song is also very on-trend for 2018 and stood out to me from the start as a near definite top 10.
I feel a lot will depend on running order and particularly what she comes next to on either side. If she gets bordered by two weaker slow songs, or perhaps one of the niche, rockier entries, she’d be a strong threat.
I still feel like Lithuania was the strongest Moment in the first semi though, so that would be my dark horse winner pick for now.
Don’t think I’ve ever said this this season (or last) but the market has it about right now. Cyprus vs Norway. The others are fighting for top 5 unless there’s some strange scoring with the way the televote/jury split turns out.
Cyprus is a decent pop song performed to the highest order which is why it will do well with the jury too.
The sexiness doesn’t kill it with the public and it’s not tacky or cheap either to be punished by the jury.
Would it win in a lot of years?, maybe not but things have lined up excellently and that must be respected. Norway is the strongest rival; capable of keeping pace on the televote and won’t be slaughtered by the juries either with an excellent performance with all the hallmarks of a winner. I want to see the running order and what momentum is picked up after the semi but atm I have
1. Cyprus
2. Norway
3. Czech Republic
4. Moldova
5. Sweden
@360, and Hippo
Chewing it over, I’m speculating that the vote constituencies that might feel reluctant to vote for Eleni will be populated by females.
I thinking with reference to different female reactions to the The Pussycat Dolls “Don’t You Wish Your Girlfriend Was Hot Like Me,” back to when that was a big, big hit.
I remember how popular it was in the clubs and how it was the most body-confident girls who were performing to it and loving it. I also remember other women’s reactions to that song, which were more muted.
Eleni is incredibly slim, toned and beautiful. She has a figure unobtainable to the vast majority of women. Turn down the volume, watch Eleni’s performance, and summarise it as her bragging about how damn sexy and beautiful she is.
I’m imagining a tall, muscly, super-handsome, snaked-hipped, greatest-dancer Adonis (I’m very fluid in my thinking!) performing the lead in the Fuego show.
Hmmm. Would (pre American Gods) Ricky Whittle fit the bill?
Would I feel inclined to vote for Ricky, telling me repeatedly what an impossible hottie he is?
Honestly? I think not.
It’s the start, and the way she struts on like Beyonce that gets me hooked.
An all-uptempo top five? I can’t see that happening
I think they’re different enough. Cyprus the female dance number, Norway the kiddy funk, Moldova the ethno former-ussr ‘novelty’, there’s only Czech and Sweden competing for the same votes.
Have Lithuania 6th for now. They’re very close to getting in there but they’re the only ‘slow’ entry that can make it I think.
I don’t think it’s OTT for Saturday night. If Beyonce (who she’s heavily modelled the staging on particularly the start) released Fuego not only would we have this year’s Despacito, but also if she was an X Factor interval act the staging wouldn’t be that different.
Am in an excellent yet annoying position on the bf outright. Funds are locked up in the outright market. Don’t have the money to lay. But think I do want to move away from Norway. But I don’t want to cash out as I would be cashing out also on Lithuania and Germany, and I definitely don’t want to be cashing out on Germany (yet).
Is there any way to individually cash out on a selection, while leaving other selections untouched?
I’m such a dummy! I know exactly what to do: that which I’ve been doing! A rookie brain-freeze revisited.
Hi Guildo. On betfair the figures to the right (in pink) are the offers from others on the exchange. There you can ‘sell’ your odds on an individual country eg if you had £1000 worth of Sweden in the outright market and someone wanted it at 20/1 you could take £50 worth of that (50 x 20 would reach the ‘amount’ you could sell of £1000 – if you went above amount then you would be ‘liable’ for the amount you went over).
Just click on the amount offered and then enter how much you want to ‘sell’ (lay).
No need to cash out entire field 😉
I know! I’ve partly already been doing that this season! I lost the plot, momentarily.
I blame my parents for providing one of the rare households in which to spend your childhood, back in the day, that didn’t have a computer! The TV didn’t even have a remote control.
Thanks for the fulsome answer, Showlad.
Appreciated.
I grew up in a house like that in the 90s. No microwave, no dishwasher, no tumbledryer, no computer (until 98), no remote on the TV. My parents never had a remote control until I got them a Freeview box in 2006, and even then they didn’t quite get away with it. They would leave the remote on top of the TV at all times and, if they needed to change channel, walk over to the TV, pick up the remote, change channel, put the remote back down on top of the TV then walk back to their seat.
This is what happens when you’re descended from (I’m told) “a long line of Cumbrian sheep farmers”.
Hi ev,
Mine was an urban council house upbringing. It was an odd experience to live in a city in a house with no home phone and with a TV that used a dial to turn the channel. Haha! Embarrassing times. My parents were less resistant to technology; rather unable to afford it!
@Showlad
Well, that was good timing! Writing the fledgling Dance Crew piece further up this thread helped me realise how strong Cyprus actually is.
I did indeed move away from Norway. The odds were just too low. I got the same warning feeling that I eventually felt with France.
The next crew I had in mind to chat about was Netta’s. The short version is that Israel’s show does not improve upon a rewatch and that I feel that its odds are still too low.
Esxtra press poll for the last night shows Hungary the winner of Semi 2. what’s going on? Are we going to witness a Second Lordi case ? unbelievable !!!
I have Hungary @660. The biggest price i have ever bet on!
We have a year that looks like 2011, has the winner of 2009 that could make the repeat and we have a metal band that could do a Lordie 2006 win.
This year is a madhouse!
I managed to catch 95 today with the intention to sell it tomorrow probably. I still don’t think it could do Lordi because it’s a little bit too heavy and they don’t have costumes haha
Lordi didn’t have any juries to beat, that’s the key point… No chance I think
My fun longshot of the year is Ireland @ 760. Just needs some media attention (or fake news), a great slot and who knows they could pull a Common Linnets 🙂
Plus fans of Eurovision, including juries, are not usually into metal (except for me) so I don’t see it winning. I could see a Nightwish style song winning, but the Hungarian performance is proper heavy, almost thrash metal. I would like it to qualify and then come in the top ten because I backed it at a good price ages ago. I’m not optimistic though.
True. I just hope that the viewers will have the ”This is like Lordi, i bet they can win as well” feeling and lay around 20’s. My profit will be amazing! I still have them @4.05 for the Top15.
GERMANY odds dropping all across the board. This is a (poor quality) fan video from the arena last night https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq3dUxW5kZA Sound goes up and down lol but crucially we can see the staging is amazing and YES I get the starkness and effectiveness of the staging vibes (including the road graphics) of Calm After The Storm.
Apart from a terrible positioning (which hopefully won’t happen) Showlad is calling it for a Germany win.
Jury bait – tick. Current and modern with hit potential – tick. Mass public appeal -tick. ‘X’ factor moment (all will be in tears) – tick. Great vocals – tick.
Watch this go single figures by Saturday 😉 🙂
Wasn’t this being talked about as a surefire last place bet on here only some days ago??? I bet on this at silly odds before the national final and had to rely on a vibrate whatsapp alert in a cinema to let me know that Michael had indeed won his national competition.
Showlad: I admire your boldness!
Positives: he has massively improved his vocals after a very shaky start and the staging is good, although all that “wording” is a little literal for me. The road graphic, as you say, has echoes of 2014 Netherlands,
Negatives: I don’t like the “LSD induced ” whirling effect at the end, which seems disjointed and out of kilter. Just when the song should be reaching an emotional climax, it doesn’t quite come off. Ed Sheeran copy? Well I’ve read this a million times and like, Ed Sheeran isn’t popular?!
I see its odds falling, especially after a possible decent first half draw, buffeted by two average songs. Will it win? I haven’t your confidence Showlad, but this has always seemed a year in which a song could swoop from totally nowhere to win it and catch us all off guard.
My bank manager would very much like you to be right!!
It’s still 38-40 in Betfair. Can’t see it’s dropping somewhere. Staging good but nothing special about song. Boring, slow song. Most people will have toilet break during this song. It’s Cyprus or Norway for me.
2 slow songs won 2 in a row sounds unlikely to me. This year, it’s time for show and fireworks! Fuego will play all summer long. Germany’s song dont have winner vibes of eurovision winner, cyprus has.
France/Mercy will do much better then Germany..
When Jamala won in 2016, with its dark, brooding tone, there were many voices citing a “Eurovision pendulum effect” and asserted that the time was ripe in 2017 for a happy, upbeat winner: cue Occidentalis Karma favouritism! And what did we get? Salavdor.
It really isn’t that simple.
Hi Sawyer. Think you have completely misjudged the emotional impact of Michael and this song and the power of this staging. This will easily beat France in the public vote.
The fabulous diva glitz of Cyprus will be severly hampered by the juries and rightly so and it is not a winning song package overall.
Let’s see where Germany is on Saturday. A few days ago Germany was nearly 200/1 – today sees a massive drop already.
Isn’t it funny that 2 days ago we were searching for a single song with some emotional impact and suddenly we have to choose from Lithuania, Germany, Portugal, Spain and maybe France.
France is the better song by a mile but doesn’t look like the staging for it will get the message across in the same way as Germany. One of the ’emotional message’ songs is likely to break into the top 5 and for me Lithuania and Germany are the ones that have the best initial impact.
France is a brilliant grower but not necessarily impactful on first listen, Spain too cloying for mass appeal and Ireland not strong enough a song (but does have 2nd half draw)
I adore Portugal and it’s one of my favourites of the year but I think they missed a trick with the backing and staging. If they had beefed up the backing a little but and turned it into a London Grammar or XX type song, then it could have been a real contender. The swirling piano underneath is beautiful but too understated, so sadly I don’t think it will do too well.
Now the vocals seem to have improved I agree with showlad that Germany could surprise. Got at 150s on Betfair a few days ago and was still available at 120-1 e/w a couple of days ago online bookies. Whoever wins the Saturday emotional battle of 1st half could do very well. Still not convinced any if them can win but with the jury doubt over all the uptempo songs of 2nd half, it’s worth covering.
A problem for Germany is certainly the running order.
For as long as France leads the odds they’ll be prioritised above Germany for a 10-13, as will Lithuania and there’ll need to be some distance between the three of them (and Portugal)
It’s very likely Germany could be on 6th or earlier, just the way the first half is shaping up.
My predictions for tonight:
Norway
Romania
Denmark
Moldova
Netherlands
Australia
Hungary
Latvia
Sweden
Ukraine
Think Germany wil get anywhere between 9th to 13th Hippo.
Germany has some good drawings in the producers decide the order era
2013 – 11
2014- 12
2015- 17
2016- 10
2017- 21
Well, Germany was used as filler in the last couple of years. They were always sandwiched between two good songs. If Lithuania won the televote, I expect Germany to come before Portugal. If they decide to give a good draw to one of the BIG 5, it’ll most likely be France.
IIRC Bjorkman only gave a few points to “Mercy” in the French NF. I’m pretty sure he doesn’t want to be accused of sabotage or something like this.
Tentative predictions
Norway
Sweden
Moldova
Ukraine
Netherlands
Poland
Hungary
Russia
Romania
Malta
With all the surprise non qualifiers on Tuesday I’m picking Australia as the one tonight. Surely the juries can’t save it after her poor jury rehearsal? I don’t see the public going for it. Malta sneaks in ahead of Latvia and Denmark for me (more envelopes handed out) and I just can’t see Russia missing out. Surely??
I’d have said yes but if Azerbaijan can get sent home anything is possible…
pre-show predictions
Norway
Sweden
Ukraine
Hungary
Australia
Moldova
Denmark
Netherlands
Poland
Latvia
My prediction:
Norway
Romania
Russia
Moldova
Netherlands
Australia
Poland
Hungary
Sweden
Ukraine
I do hope Malta and Latvia make it. I would not be surprised if Montenegro is in.
My predictions for tonight:
Norway, Moldova, Sweden and Ukraine are easily through and they don’t deserve further commentary about it. Same for San Marino sinking down to the bottom.
Romania seems like a total struggle for televoters but I read many comments about yesterday’s performance and was easily one of the best of the SF. I’m not thinking about it as an Utopian Land but more as Lonely Planet (juries saving the song of an otherwise strong-in-the-televote country).
Serbia looks more competent but it’s not a jury-friendly package and it’s too early on the evening. Slovenia seems like the televote magnet of the ex-Yugo countries (at least is the only fun, likeable one). I’m gonna say no. As for Slovenia, the *technical failure* and the ending in Portuguese will leave lots of people confused – a shame because everyone raves about their camerawork. NQ.
Denmark’s performance was bad and the worst part came out in the recap. A strong televote would be needed to save this entry and as much as the viking gimmick might get them some free votes, overall it’s too dark to be loved. NQ.
Russia and Australia were perhaps the most widely panned performances of the evening. Russia is still likely to get many free televoting points (Russia-friendly countries and diaspora are present for this SF plus they never ended below 6th on the televote in any SF). Australia isn’t likely to get widely punished by the juries (Isaiah didn’t though his performance wasn’t completely over the place as Jessica’s apparently was) but they don’t seem to be pretty liked by the European televoters. If I have to choose one country to lose a perfect qualification record, I’d go with Australia. Russia would need to get many votes stolen by Norway and Moldova but it could happen.
The Netherlands have improved their act a lot but I still think it won’t be liked at all east of Berlin. They do seem to have one of the best vocals in this SF so this may score nicely with the juries (though not at all like last year). I have it as a marginal qualifier.
After many minutes of madness, Georgia comes as a soothing entry and Poland as a fun one. One appeals to the juries (though I’m not convinced by its chances with some of the Western juries and I’m not sure some of the Russia-friendly countries are into this either). Poland brought mixed reviews about their juries performance (some people say it was their best, others say it keeps sounding bad) but it’s likely to be well-regarded by televoters – I just don’t think they will be thoroughly liked outside their diaspora because similar entries like Greece’s Rise Up couldn’t manage to do so. Out of this two, I’d go with Poland.
On the other side of places in the running order, Latvia and Montenegro seem lost. Latvia is jury-friendly but will be lost in the sea of USP’s that Hungary and Sweden bring. Montenegro is competent, but getting sandwiched between the much, much modern proposals of both Sweden and Slovenia will cost them a lot.
In a rather clumsy SF, the Maltese jury power (never finished behind the 8th place with the juries and that 8th place belonged to last year’s Claudia – televoters’ poison in a way stronger semi) will probably be strong (I wouldn’t be shocked if this finishes in the top 5 for the juries). Hungary doesn’t seem to be jury-friendly (especially since many people agree that the last part of the song sounds flat) but they have managed to become some sort of press-faves with what is perhaps the least press-friendly song. This promises to bring a strong performance with the televoters.
So my picks are:
Norway
Romania
Russia
Moldova
Netherlands
Poland
Malta
Hungary
Sweden
Ukraine
Snap! The same 10 as myself. Hope you’re right.
I don’t think Australia will be left out. She was maybe off key last night but her song is modern. This is what juries are looking for in a weak semi such as this one.
But definitely no top 10 finish for them in the Grand Final this year.
Sweden
Moldova
Ukraine
Netherlands
Poland
Hungary
Australia
Romania
Denmark
Malta
Norway NQ? Something ain’t right…
Replace Malta by Norway and you have my picks.
I have Denmark as a NQ and layed at 1.3
I just don’t see how this motivates a televote, even it’s scandi friends won’t give it 12 points
I also don’t see the jury going for it
Any view on why it’s so short?
Before the rehearsals, I thought that Denmark was a sure NQ. But given the weak semi, I think they can get through. He’ll get enough points from Sweden and Norway. The public will save him.