An enjoyable series comes to a climax this weekend with the final it deserves. Rak-Su and Grace have been the big names since the very first audition show, often singing their own songs, and have had a noticeable impact on the iTunes charts. Kevin Davy White, whose musicality brings something different to proceedings, is the surprise package.
We completely missed Kevin in our just-for-fun pre-lives prediction six weeks ago, but plumped for Rak-Su to win and nothing that’s happened since has changed our minds. The manband have had most momentum in the lives, and we took it as a sign of confidence that producers put them on second in the running order for the double elimination semi-final. ‘I’m Feeling You’ duly gave them another #1 on iTunes. They return to their hits from weeks 1 and 2 tonight – ‘Mamacita’ and ‘Dimelo’ – if it ain’t broke, why fix it?
We believe Grace Davies represents their biggest threat. She too is at her best when showcasing her own material, and returns to ‘Roots’ – her room audition breakout song – tonight. We’re not so enamoured with her other choice: 70s Bond theme ‘Live and Let Die’, which landed Kitty Brucknell in the bottom two in its previous outing on this show. Presumably she’ll be singing it more like Duffy than Kitty (and with less fire), but it’s a song that doesn’t need to be slowed down because it has no emotional resonance.
Kevin Davy White will no doubt be using his electric guitar to good effect on ‘Whole Lotta Love’ – which keeps him in the same lane as last Sunday’s ‘Voodoo Child’, a track soon to be featured on Rak-Su’s ‘Driving Anthems’ compilation.
Kevin will then be returning to the piano for his week 3 version of ‘Fastlove’. That song won him the night’s vote, but only marginally – Dermot mentioned there was under 1% in it – and after a heavy pimping.
The Frenchman is behind the other two on all recent social media stats, which suggests he would need a helping hand from producers to get him above third place. And it’s not obvious why producers would want to give him more help than the others tonight – Kevin adds a feelgood element and musical credibility to the show, but in a year when above all else they have been pushing acts performing their own material, Kevin has been kept to covers in the lives.
One bright spot in the ratings this year has been the show’s take-up by the 18-34 age bracket, and Simon admitted in today’s Sun that Rak-Su represent the shoring up of that market. It’s suggestive that each of their rivals has been given one new song that pre-dates when any of this age bracket were born.
As always, it’ll be fascinating to see how skewed the coverage will be. There’s usually no overt negativity in the final – and if producers are happy with the state of the vote, they may simply give each of the three acts even-handedly positive treatment in confidence of getting the result they want. That was our interpretation of last Sunday’s show, and it would be a fitting end to this year’s kinder, gentler series. But there are always little ways in which producers can look to nudge the vote without any overt negativity, by reinforcing stereotypes.
If you’re not betting tonight, but still want the true Sofabet experience, we can suggest a drinking game based on every allusion that Kevin is French, that Myles Rak-Su is a hit with the ladies, and that Grace writes “depressing love songs”.
At the time of writing there’s still no confirmation about how the duets will work tonight, who will be involved, or if they will involve one of the already announced song choices – we can only presume so. Nicole has a record of appearing to take these things very seriously, having memorably grabbed Jahmene’s microphone in 2012, and there’s a case that she made the difference for Matt Terry in a close-run affair last year. If she appears with Kevin, that will give his prospects a boost. BGT winner Tokio Myers has told Twitter that he will be duetting, and if that’s the case, Kevin’s guitar skills would be the most obvious foil for his keyboarding. We await confirmation.
Last year’s final turned out to have hinged on vote transfers: Saara won the Saturday, but Matt overtook her on Sunday as more of 5AM’s voters switched to him. The question of whether something similar might happen this time has been a live issue in our comments section. We’d be surprised if it’s so emphatic this year, given what’s on offer – Rak-Su’s appeal is no more niche than Grace’s or Kevin’s in our opinion – though we recognise that some disagree with us on that.
More to the point, we’ve got the impression all series that producers have been where they want to be with the vote. They’re now in their third year of getting rich data from the app votes, and we see no real reason to think they’ll struggle to get the result they want tonight. Simon’s aforementioned quotes about Rak-Su in this morning’s Sun – “I take it as a tremendous compliment that they trusted the show… It’s been great for them but it’s fantastic for us too” – are another piece of evidence for what that result might be. The Watford lads have already demonstrated their ability to make an impact in the charts, and have an album’s worth of material ready to go – we assume it would boost the franchise for them to become the first male group to win.
We look forward to hearing your own predictions, but we’re sticking with the following:
1. Rak-Su
2. Grace Davies
3. Kevin Davy White
Happy X Factor Final weekend to you all, and best of luck with your punting. Let us know your continued thoughts below.
Photos/video via ©ITV / @ThePixelFactor
Despite what Simon says, the number of 16-34s watching the show (as well as every other demographic) has still gone down this year. It used to *always* get more 16-34s that Strictly. I believe this year is the first time ever a couple of Strictly episodes got more than TXF.
Agree with your top 3 prediction, though not ruling out the possibility of Grace pulling it off.
Will repeat my prediction here.
1. Grace Davies
2. Rak-Su
3. Kevin Davy White
Rak Su will be ahead at the vote freeze. However Kevin vote transfer wins it for Grace.
If Grace somehow leaves in 3rd place, then Kevin could give Rak-Su a run for their money. However in that case I expect Rak-Su to win.
I don’t think anyone has won if they were number 1 in sofabet’s Pre-lives prediction, so maybe there is a curse? 😉
I agree with Tom above.
1. Grace Davies
2. Rak-Su
3. Kevin Davy White
Vote transfer winning it for Grace, with Rak-Su being ahead on Saturday night.
Yep that’s my prediction as well.
No doubt there were some fingers burned last year, and whilst it is wise to have history guiding us to prevent similar mistakes being made again, I think the potential vote transfer is being overstated by many.
I don’t see one set of voters shifting en masse in favour of one particular competitor, and would expect a more even distribution.
Given conditions in their favour I would expect Rak Su to take the lead over-night and to hold off any renewed challenge from their nearest rival, Grace.
So, a rather unoriginal and unsurprising 1-2-3 for me of:
1) Rak Su
2) Grace Davies
3) Kevin Davy White
Some interesting Final 3 data came out from @tvpolls this afternoon.
Please don’t shoot the messenger. Also, it’s not my data.
Who do you want to win The X Factor 2017?
Grace Davies 26%
Kevin Davy White 26%
Rak-Su 34%
DON’T KNOW/NOT WATCHING SHOW 15%
100%
Who’s your 2nd Favourite?
Grace Davies 26%
Kevin Davy White 34%
Rak-Su 18%
DON’T KNOW/NOT WATCHING SHOW 21%
100%
Who do you THINK will win X Factor 2017?
Grace Davies 21%
Kevin Davy White 8%
Rak-Su 55%
DON’T KNOW/NOT WATCHING SHOW 16%
100%
Below was their data from last week:
Who do you want to win The X Factor 2017?
Grace Davies 21%
Kevin Davy White 15%
Lloyd Macey 16%
Matt Linnen 5%
Rak-Su 22%
The CutKelvins 7%
DON’T KNOW/NOT WATCHING SHOW 14%
100.00%
Who’s your 2nd Favourite?
Grace Davies 10%
Kevin Davy White 14%
Lloyd Macey 19%
Matt Linnen 8%
Rak-Su 20%
The CutKelvins 15%
DON’T KNOW/NOT WATCHING SHOW 15%
100.00%
And here is their data from before last year’s final:
Who do you want to win The X Factor 2016?
Saara Aalto 35%
5 After Midnight 33%
Matt Terry 32%
100.00%
Who’s your 2nd Favourite?
Saara Aalto 13%
5 After Midnight 44%
Matt Terry 43%
100.00%
Grace has the same 1st and 2nd favourite percentage. If these are right and Grace is out today, Kevin might be able to pull it off. I hope so.
This one is interesting
Who do you THINK will win X Factor 2017?
Grace Davies 21%
Kevin Davy White 8%
Rak-Su 55%
DON’T KNOW/NOT WATCHING SHOW 16%
100%
I did a poll on twitter and my esteemed followers of gamblers and drinkers had at Rak-Su 56% for the same question
Interesting, between the Saturday and Sunday vote last year there was a 10% swing (from a 2% Saara lead to 8% Matt lead). Most polls put Rak Su with a 8-10% lead and they don’t seem to be as marmite as Saara was last year so the transfer unlikely to be as extreme. Rak Su probably have enough lead to hang on.
How many people took the survey? Tvpolls have 321 followers with a big chunk of those looking like fake accounts. Being hugely generous, let’s say that 100 people took the survey. It’s certainly not something you should be looking at to back up any betting strategy.
agreed… but does bring up interesting points of conversation.
I think it’s something like if 9% of a population of 1000, partake in a survey then you have an error range of 10%
What does everyone thing the voting breakdown will be like?
After tonight I think it’ll be
1. Rak-Su 43%
2. Grace 30%
3. Kevin 27%
Grace unable to make enough gains on Sunday, finishing
1. Rak-Su 45.5%
2. Grace 41%
Kevin’s votes making up the other 13.5%
I think if Rak-Su get 41% tonight and Grace 37% it’s basically neck-a-neck, if Grace is within 4% after tonight then I think she wins it
Its certainly a lot closer than the odds suggest. However I wouldn’t be surpised to see tptb pulling out a few tricks to seal the deal.
Grace is probably the value play, looking at it I think Kevin is too short in the betting…
Rak-Su are getting to that point where I’m considering laying of some of my bets
As an early Grace backer by last weekend I had almost given up hope. However I thought last weekends performances were much stronger, and perhaps extended appeal to a wider audience.
Based on song choice Rak-su seem to be aiming at their key market, which may be a good idea going forward, but perhaps slightly limits appeal across the range of voters. TPTB may think they’ve already done enough to win it.
However if Grace can extend her appeal with song choice again this weekend then I think she can at least make it a closer contest than the odds currently suggest.
Prediction – sitting on the fence – too close to call.
PS – as an old git I think Kevin has the best song but still think he’ll go out tonight.
Bye Kevin. Will be memoryholed by Grace. Rak-Su in pimp slot.
RO
1 Kevin
2 Grace
3 RakSu
4 Kevin
5 Grace
6 RakSu
Good luck to everyone and their acts (err, money)! I’m wary of surprises but outright I will stick to my prediction after last Sunday.
Rak-Su
Grace
Kevin
Kevin Davy White & TOKIO MYERS
Grace Davies & PALOMA FAITH
Rak-Su & NAUGHTY BOY
from TellyStats
Looking good for Grace.
Naughty Boy is a bit of a WTF, though might make sense when we see the show.
He is from Watford… but does seem strange on the face of it
However I did like La La La and he’s done some really good, imo, collab stuff in the past with the likes of Sheeran, Sam Smith, Emeli Sande
wow. I know it’s not Beyoncé or Rihanna but it’s more creative than I anticipated. Fair play to the show.
Feels like Good-Better-Best to me.
Here we go…kill it Grace! ….and Paloma 😉
Prediction:
1. Rak Su
2. Grace
3. Kevin
But all closer than the odds suggest.
The duets will the winners’ single, as per Tellymix?
The X Factor site have Rak-Su dueting with Wyclef Jean not Naughty Boy
So they’re doing a mashup of Dimelo and Hips Don’t Lie?
Maybe it’s both, didn’t Reggie N Bollie get multiple partners.
Oh look, it’s Rak-Su’s I’m Feeling You colour vomit background.
VOTE OPEN NOW. Kevin backers see a tiny glimmer of hope.
Embassy visit!
Subtitles too.
Red and Black as well.
All it needed was a rock version of La Vie En Rose
“You’re in for a shock tonight, Kevin”
I wonder if he was talking to us, put all your money on Kevin now, people! lol
Meanwhile they’ve started frenching him.
“You’re in with a shot”. Cloth ears. Lol
Oh, lol. When money is involved you hear what you want.
Well that’s what I heard. You’ve got me doubting myself now. Haha.
Grace wins the homecoming VT’s before Rak Su even perform.
Oh, red and black for Grace. Some white too.
She’s standing on a solar panel.
This song does her no favours at all.
Not too fussed on her either way really but that was awful.
I enjoyed that performance personally but I can’t imagine it’s very pleasing to her base. They’ve given Kevin a shot to leapfrog her with that I think.
First bit of the X Factor I’ve watched this season is Grace just now. She has a nice, accomplished voice but I really didn’t tune in to hear Live and Let Die. I remember last year Saara did her first performance in the final and we were all left a bit nonplussed. I feel pretty much the same right now.
Right now I’d struggle to vote for her unless I was already a fan and following her journey.
At Casa Hamby it was described as “a load of old tut”. At this rate we’ll be off Strictly before Rak Su perform.
A masterclsss on how to keep Grace below Rak-Su. Well played TPTB.
Rak-Su sound like they’re miming. I still think they will win today though. Crowd still cheering. Pimping in overdrive.
“You’re overlooked in the competition” this is worse than Louisa’s year.
I choked when Dermot said that, but as the master of the post-performance interview I trust that this will go down well with the voting public.
On the basis of those two performances Rak Su will finish above Grace (didn’t see Kevin). Personally I wouldn’t vote for either of them though.
Grace backers abandon all hope.
Rak-Su have been a tour de force in the Lives but what was that?
Rak-Su won that says Louis. What a suprising thing to say.
“prettymuch” miming
Oh dear, Digital Spy is leaking
Rak-Su return with disguises.
What are the odds of PRETTYMUCH being voted off tonight?
0. Rak-Su will win it. They’ve got the pimp slot and an extra performance.
PRETTYMUCH casting a shadow over Rak-Su there.
Don’t like the idea of the duet being the winners song.
Don’t understand this duet = winners single. What is rationale behind this?
The acts don’t have enough pulling power to do well in the charts outright? Feels like something they needed years ago, but surely Rak-Su can get a number 1 on their own at the back of the show.
It’s a bit of a weird decision, especially singing it on the Saturday instead of the Sunday. What are they going to do as the winner’s reprise?
PRETTYMUCH are good enough for Khalid and Lorde so haters can back off… oh sorry this isn’t Twitter.
On the performances, Rak-Su won the first round, hands down.
So they’ve got Wyclef Jean to perform Dimelo with Rak-Su
and Grace is sharing her ‘big’ song with Paloma Faith
:-/
They’re so relevant their songs on XF already have remixes that feature other artists. Bye Kevin.
I like them… bit of a coup for the show to get established artists to duet and perform sombodies else’s material
Honestly, it’s an upgrade from having Nicole sing over one of the contestants.
It’s also on brand (new emphasis on originals) and it reinforces the talent of this year’s lot by having current artists sign off on their credibility.
Kevin was almost drowned out by Tokio. Bye Kevin.
Only Nicole got to speak?
Grace doing Roots. Kevin is a goner. He gave up half way through his duet.
They don’t judge the duets. It would be disrespectful to the artists.
The big problem with that is that is was boring and forgettable imo. Fast Love? Not so much.
This shows setting is so important. A few weeks ago, Fastlove was a winning performance.
Rak-Su be like (press play) https://www.instagram.com/p/BcNlvEUDXD2/
so now Nicole can’t say “vote for your own!”. 😀
Grace is back in it.
Dermot: “That was your first song. It could be your last song…”
Cut him some slack. At least he didn’t reveal the act getting eliminated before he was supposed to.
To be fair he did do that last year.
I almost hope Grace doesn’t win now. Don’t want Paloma honking all over Roots! What a completely ridiculous idea. That’s a deeply personal song for Grace and she shouldn’t have had to share the moment with a guest artist. It’s her song.
“Honking” made me snort my green tea out of my nose just then. What a perfect way to describe her voice in those early low bits.
Totally agree. Felt like a de-ramp to me. How to lessen the impact of her big moment.
Can’t say Wycliffe is helping RakSu either.
read somewhere his earpiece fell off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9a69eRc8gYo
Given how polarising Paloma Faith is, I think Grace’s duet is a delight-the-demo performance. Grace fans will love it but neutrals may be turned off.
Good to see one of the Cutkelvin brothers on stage supporting Rak Su.
Although I think we need to get used to hearing this song.
Grace back in it imo
Simon’s really rehashing an old feud. Naughty Boy on the show in the same weekend as Louis Tomlinson
http://metro.co.uk/2015/07/31/zayn-malik-vs-louis-tomlinson-vs-naughty-boy-a-timeline-of-the-never-ending-twitter-feud-that-had-directioners-in-tears-5319643/
and Sam Smith
http://metro.co.uk/2015/05/07/burn-sam-smith-stabs-naughty-boy-in-the-back-as-he-aligns-himself-with-louis-tomlinson-5186318/
Where’s Zayn?
Text from my mother just now “Bye bye Kevin. Au revoir.”
Reluctantly agree. He feels like a spare part tonight. Definitely the Grace and Rak Su show.
I thought Grace was massively deramped tonight.
Her cover wouldn’t get her extra votes & Roots, which should have been her moment, was hijacked her Paloma Faithless.
That should be “Adieu”. You won’t see him again unless he gets done for speeding or appears on one of those shows where the contestants have to guess why he was famous.
Or are you planning a stay in Centre Parcs next summer?
Or is the magic of 1D still so strong that we’re about to see a Kevin miracle? Most votes are probably already in so it won’t make a difference anyway.
He looked like he enjoyed that though. Definitely having a laugh.
Rak-Su to win. I’ve switched horses.
I bet Simon is delighted with these 2 going through to tomorrow. Songwriters with music ready to go.
Grace, Rak-Su are the final two. Coming into the lives, I didn’t think the show can carry both of them this far but here we are.
Even without the show’s pimping they wouldve done well. Head and shoulders better than the rest in my opinion. That is the reason why they have the producers blessing.
Agree that they’ve been incredible but the voting public have a track record of liking meh acts so I thought the show may need to pick one side and ditch the other before the final.
They had uptempo, contemporary songs. The other two were doing dirges.
Live and Let Die and Whole Lotta Rosie – these songs are 40+ years old. They never had a chance.
The votes are back open; it’s the first overnight vote of the series.
Well it’s win-win for TPTB. I expect Rak-Su to win with “Dimelo” going to #2 next week behind Ed Sheeran, and they’ll release Grace’s “Roots” in January.
Ed’s releasing a new single? I thought Perfect is already out
He’s released a’Perfect’ duet with Beyonce
I want to offer this to y’all as my tweet of the final so far.
https://twitter.com/carlroybird/status/937076448145354752
Do you know if I can watch the final online somewhere?
ITV.com with a VPN/Hola unblocker etc
Mobdro on Android
Thanks. Gonna watch X factor UK for the first time. I have a tiny bet on Rak-Su. Just for fun really as I haven’t followed this show professionally.
no probs, this is usually how I watch also. If you go with the VPN option you can also download the XFactor app and place your votes, if you so desire. Good luck with your bets.
One thing I noticed about Dimelo last night was that the backing track was exactly the same as it was when they performed it in Week 2.
Which means that either Naughty Boy’s involvement as guest producer was limited to him standing pretending to press a few buttons and lending his name to it to give it extra chart credibility…
OR
…he actually did produce the song, weeks ago at the start of the live shows, ready for this release.
I’d be surprised if it was the latter but it’s a very shrewd observation all the same. Let’s hope Whycliffs contribution in the studio was better than last night’s. He certainly wins the award for the most bizarre stage entrance ever. Actually thought he might be having a fit.
With the voting being open from the start and again overnight, do the performances even matter.
I’d assume at least 80% of votes are done on the app, with the very high majority done as soon as voting opens.
This talk of floating casual voters seems a bit weird now that there is an app, are people who only tune in for the final
a) actually spend their own money to phone vote
b) download the app just for that night to vote
The performances tonight are largely irrelevant now as most of the votes have been cast.
With all the begging for Grace votes last night I think it was more likely they were worried about her slipping below Kevin, then challenging Rak-Su for the win.
How far do you think Grace was behind (or ahead) after the first vote freeze?
Rak Su – Touche and Mona Lisa
Grace – Nothing but words and Too Young