What a difference 12 months make. Last year, the final weekend was a feverish one in the Sofabet comments section and the betting markets, as opinion swung back and forth between Ben Haenow and Fleur East. This time, we have the strongest favourite ever in 1/5 chance Louisa Johnson, and the market has also decided who comes second – Reggie N Bollie being way out ahead of Ché Chesterman. Can anything disrupt the apparent pecking order?
I wouldn’t take too much notice of the YouGov poll in this morning’s Sun, which had the following basic figures: 39% Louisa Johnson, 20% Ché Chesterman, 12% Reggie N Bollie and 29% don’t know. Crucially, it didn’t ask those surveyed who they “intend to vote for”, as previous highly accurate YouGov surveys did (read our interview with YouGov’s Joe Twyman after 2012 for more on X Factor polling methodology). Previous YouGov surveys were based on polling throughout the series. We’ve had it confirmed from YouGov that this hasn’t been done this series, because viewer numbers are too low for them to feel confident of polling accurately, and the change in the question wording means these figures shouldn’t be seen as a prediction.
Louisa Johnson has the odds and producer favour behind her. Those odds may not reflect her performance in the phone vote in the early weeks of the live shows. But it’s encouraging for her supporters that her semi-final performance of Christina Aguilera’s version of ‘It’s a Man’s Man’s World’ has been chosen for a reprise on Sunday. It suggests producers were happy with the semi-final public poll.
Tonight we’ve been promised more angelic connotations (including perhaps, some wires and actual flight), for her rendition of ‘I Believe I Can Fly’. The song worked well for Rough Copy, helping them bounce in week 8 of 2013. Her other song is ‘Fighter’, clearly on the basis that if Christina can work once, it can work twice. With a 30-minute Strictly overlap, we’re expecting Louisa to get tonight’s pimp slot.
Reggie N Bollie don’t seem stymied by song choice. An upbeat medley involving The Spice Girls and Outhere Brothers, plus ‘Jump’ by Kriss Kross, seem firmly in their comfort zone. Expect huge productions for both; it’ll be interesting to see just how messy these will be, and whether vocals will be exposed early on in either number. Their Sunday reprise is the ‘What Makes You Beautiful’ / ‘Cheerleader’ medley from week 2 that first indicated serious producer favour. It looks like a good choice for them.
Ché Chesterman doesn’t appear quite so lucky. Phil Collins’ ‘In the Air Tonight’ feels like the most uninspired choice of Saturday night (although it’s worth noting it was the pimped semi-final song choice of Cyrus Villaneuva, who won X Factor Australia a couple of weeks ago). ‘Valerie’ keeps him on the Amy Winehouse trail, and it’s not promising that we’ve been told on Xtra Factor that it involves a 50s diner theme with dancing hamburgers. If he makes it to Sunday, his week 1 medley reprise wasn’t even in the top five of the vote if we believe the only Daily Star vote leak we’ve had this series.
Like our commenters, we love to speculate on the duet partners, and if any will be a gamechanger. But in truth, none have been since Alexandra Burke and Beyoncé in 2008. Some get bigger names than others, but how they are played on stage sometimes negates any apparent advantage this might give. Rita and Louisa, Reggie N Bollie with Craig David, Ché and Rod Stewart – nothing here screams gamechanger.
Given their expected treatment, we can’t be too hopeful of a surprise result, though nothing is ever certain in these shows. While we’re expecting obvious producer favour for Louisa, we’re looking forward to seeing how they may possibly deramp her two rivals (we’ve already written about how this may occur for the second favourites, at the end of our Reggie N Bollie journey piece), and whether they deramp them both equally or one more than the other. Ché’s challenge is that no act has reached second place after two singoff saves.
As such, it doesn’t feel like there have been too many opportunities in the betting markets this week. Things may change if there are any over-reactions in running, or indeed if the tone of the show indicates something different might be taking place. The Sofabet comments section is a great place to follow the final as it happens. Do please keep your thoughts coming below. Meanwhile, here’s our rather predictable final prediction.
1. Louisa; 2. Reggie N Bollie; 3. Ché
There’s very little liquidity now. Only thing I’m waiting for is the Rita Top Mentor from August to come in. If all goes to plan then it’ll be a profitable season but the lowest XF/ESC ever for me.
So I’ll simply say thanks for another season of insight and see you for Eurovision!
Ah’m oot too. Can’t he bothered to watch this pile of bum biscuits.
Goodbye all. Maybe next year….
*tumbleweeds*
Well this is a rather boring final. Have there been any more obvious ones, other than 2006 and 2013?
And yes, the duets are genuinely embarrassing this year, I can’t remember anything like it. Even Season 6 wasn’t this bottom of the barrel.
Just remember peeps 1/2 for Louisa was the worst bet of the year
The maestro has gone quiet hasn’t he? No doubt spending his winnings.
The maestro was almost certainly a troll who doesn’t even bet. Why would you give a shit?
Wasnt you was it?
Oh do fuck off.
Pardon. What are you even doing here commenting? We’ve all heard a thousand times how you ain’t watching any more bla bla bla
So apart from constantly picking on one of the finalists what are you actually here for?
I say, would you mind awfully taking your little spats elsewhere? You’re spoiling things for the grown ups.
Just skip past the mush eh?
Lol maybe too busy looking into a career change.
I’m sure a few people have not forgotten my promise to retire from this board if RNB won. Too be honest I didn’t see them coming this close when I made that promise.
I’m still sitting on Louisa green, not worried able up ache
Reggie and Bollie are the fly in the ointment, it seems stupid to actually think they can win this thing… But they just could.
I want to see some signs of insider money however, before I even consider backing them
Good luck to all tonight, stick with it, keep Stoney tense 🙂 he has earned the win says he unravellling crumbled bet slips from August. It been a decent season, at early doors. Jesica they ‘scrope’ Rod and Craig for de final.
Watch the show first… they will not let them win even if they could, they will get seriously derampded, VT the lot.
I have nothing riding on tonight. My profit from the whole series amounts to…£3.40. Oh dear. There’s always next year. There’s always next year.
To those who do have something on tonight, good luck of course. I’ll be on the watch for something unexpected. A move in the betting market or a move by the producers. If one of those things happens, maybe I’ll risk my £3.40!
Only sniff of value for me would seem to be R n B at 8/15 to finish 2nd ..
If RnB actually manage to win tomorrow, I’ll see this series in a whole different light, I’d be genuinely shocked for once. I don’t *think* it’s possible, but I guess they haven’t been in the Bottom 2, so it’s potentially feasible they’ve had a huge vote.
Good luck tonight all – I wasn’t confident enough to bet massive amounts this series but I’ve made a small sum on eliminations – the final result makes next to no difference on my bank balance. That’s only part of the reason I’m here, I came here as a fan of the show and wouldn’t be watching without sofabet. Whatever happens, you’ve all brightened up what has been an otherwise awful series.
Amen to that. Maybe next year I’ll even get involved in the betting at an early enough stage to make something. If there is a next year!
Nice tweet from Cheryl saying Reggie n Bollie are going to set Wembley alight (and flame emoji’s).
Only problem here is fire is a big time negative during performance
I know – that’s what I was getting at.
Is this the right time to remind everyone of Austria’s burning piano in Vienna back in May?
Can’t decide what I thought of the entrance plus song thing- I think it worked to make the beginning drag less. and actually all the singers did alright, but a lot of rap for RnB (and also Rita had already been crowned a queen…).
Jesus what is Caroline wearing? Her stylist is the one who needs throwing under the bus. Has looked awful all series.
She’s known for her style as well so it’s very strange that her outfits haven’t quite worked this series. I think they’ve been trying to make her look more grown up & tailored which is not her natural style at all.
I think it was just to ham the whole thing up. I didn’t recognise the Reggie n Bollie song, and Louisa actually looked and sounded the most comfortable she’s ever been.
I’m not really a Louisa fan but thought the same thing.
This whole entrance thing is to drag the first part out so Louisa doesn’t sing while strictly is on and will be the first singer on after strictly
there is literally no reason to have those burgers there except for distraction. plus I love this song usually and really not a fan of this.
Now Cowell has the audacity to criticise the production…
Interesting that Cheryl used the dolphin reference which was used on Fourth Impact the week they went.
The dolphin deramp
Cheryl ‘i have to wish you the best for tomorrow ‘
Slip up of how tonight’s going to go or genuine accident?
All sounds a little bit end of journey.
They migh as well have rolled the bus over poor Che, even Dan Wootton tweeted “poor Che”
And Ché flushed straight away by Reggie ‘N’ Bollie, no ad break.
Reggie and Bollie and the empty bus of doom.
Parts of the RnB VT was a deramp but then parts very good for them
Enjoyed Cheryl’s fake tears in the VT there.
That spice girls bit was terrible
And Louisa drifted out to 2/7 on Will Hill. I’d imagine it’s only going to get worse from here if you want to bet on her!
Colour vomit galore. But what a reception in wembley
Bang there’s the deramp
Cruise ship!
The reaction was awesome
“I have a feeling you could win this show” Simon, then Rita just took out the cruise ship line to sinkthe boat lol..
And Caroline reminded everyone of both of those lines immediately after!
Keeping it nice and subtle. Good work from cowell
I bet they’re hoping that reaction from Wembley isn’t contagious.
Lord Sugar and Piers Morgan joining the slagging on twitter.
Considering people hate them may not be a goid thing as people vote to spite them
Will be VERY interested to see how the voting went. If Louisa hasn’t been topping, Simon’s comments to RnB could almost be read as reluctantly getting behind the winner as they did for Ben and Sam Bailey.
I don’t think that’s likely but there’s no denying their huge reaction from Wembley and social media support.
He’s only saying that in the knowledge that Louisa has it in the bag.
No vote leak showing this discounts this theory for me
I agree; I’d get behind the wild ‘RnB are winning the vote’ theory if Louisa wasn’t reprising Its a Mans World. That she is means she must have polled well last week.
omg … just how FLAT ???!!!!????
dreadful first half – which of course Simon just brushed aside
The apotheosis of Louisa…
This is so boring, I don’t think this is a great song choice for Louisa. I drifted off throughout.
An ‘angel’- well now they’ve just come out and said the way they’ve been pitching her the entire series. (Love grimmy just mocked it).
No reggae and bollie reaction from the crowd and the performance was very flat
‘every single bit of emotion’
Decent enough performance although i would say the pack has closed the gap a smidgen after round 1
2nd half of the song was much better for Louisa for sure thought first half was poor and a great ending though. Great reaction too for her. VT was excellent though basically showed every demographic supporting Louisa
Yeah, I was just typing how bad that performance was and then it was saved quite dramatically by a really good second half that also managed to move the Wembley crowd.
Wow, all the Louisa clichés. Every single one.
can you believe that 1000’s and 1000s of people applied for this show, and none of them had any chance whatsoever as you were invited!
Wow, they thew the book at Louisa. Shame the performance was dull.
Think the song choice was poor for Louisa. Fighter would have been a better choice as an actual performance
Rita sounded very confident that the best was yet to come. I have faith
You could literally create a drinking game around the Louisa treatment. Seventeen, check. Ballad, check. White outfit, check. Choir, check. Any reference to heaven, or Angels, check. Down all drinks any time anybody says ‘moment’.
Don’t forget “all my emotions” and “you want to win”
Round 1 rankings (based on how they might’ve changed voter opinion and motivated their base)
1) RNB
2) Louisa
distant 3) Ché
RnB have the Wembly crowd in palm of hand as they say and the natural social media buzz. Simon line could be seen as reluctantly taking sort of show of support. Cheryl even had to extra praise Louisa who I thought sang okay but that is an odd bad version of that song anf the “woo” was missing. Rita cruiseship line probably just about saved the day. Round one to RnB and not tptb and Louisa.
Strannge stuff but tptb bern effective all year. Where Che in all this..
If only they wasn’t singing with craig david lol
Very average night so far
RnB have the show sort of
Lets see what happens next
Rod Stewart lol how bad sounds like he just smoked 20 fags in the past half hour
Poor poor che
All I can say is Rod made Che sound good
Rod Stewart there – managing to both make Che look and sound amazing.
Imagine if you had the voice of Rod Stewart and the charisma of Leona Lewis. Worst pop star ever.
Oh dear. It helps if your duet partner can sing! One rehearsal, I can believe that.
You’re hanging around Rod? Great, just great!
Wow, Craig David has changed A LOT…
I suspected the Craig David thing might be trolling…no they are actually doing it…
Great stuff for RnB in terms of their delighting the demo but really unsure how middle England takes to it even if Wembley loves it
Rod was hilarious, just fucked off before the chat was even finished.
Actually this is a bit of a mess now for me
started well, but went down hill a bit. why didn’t they just stick with fuse odg? It was so much better.
This will DELIGHT their demo like it has never been delighted before. Not sure it was universal enough though.
Are the demo sitting at home to watch XF? Meanwhile middle England says WTF.
probably not. They’re already being kicked out of Yates after too many Apple sourz
Lol mc reggie and mc bollie. That will not go down well with the general first time voters. Rap HEAVY.
I liked it though. But im onto garage
Craig who!
Craig David was pretty good though outshone RnB even in the rapping department but the whole thing was a mess
Craig david does a nicole sherzy lol
Well I’m scoring this round to Louisa before she performs. To be honest, we could’ve scored it to her before it began.
You could tell that was very last minute
My Twitter timeline is going insane for that – a radio one DJ (Clara Amfo) has called it on Beyonce Alexandra levels hahahaha!
I thought it was good, just to hear Rewind back on prime time tv and not on bo selecta. Outside of betting and sofabet for a minute, I loved it. It was rap heavy though, and wont win anybody over who was against them.
That was not good forRnB, red and black, dancers not really fun fun, all over in a minute.They got them.
What a VT this is ! Kitchen sink of aVT.
The question here then is not whether Louisa can sing this song – we know she can, and we’ve seen it. The question is can Rita sing this song?
Something tells me they had more than just the one rehearsal this afternoon…. Wouldn’t be X factor without someone murdering that song.
That was just amazing
What works for Sam Bailey works for Louisa then
That ladies and gentlemen is what you call a MOMENT
From the TV at home that was pretty special
or a shout-off
Wow, Rita Ora can sing. She kept that quiet.
Lol only the x factor would mess the recap up by putting louisa on over che singing ha ha
Haha bit of a mess from production there and even then they showed favouritism to Louisa lol
Well Louisa wins the night, and its as you were.
And there were massive effects on Rita’s voice for that song.
And oh my God the mess ups!
Louisa 1.13 on exchange. RnB 9
Anyone scoring round 2? I think Louisa might have narrowly edged that one?
Oooh very close. A coin toss lol
Get in there. Louisa superb ☺
You will sleep a little easier tonight my friend
I wonder if olly murs was producing the recaps tonight
Also well done to anyone who steamed into that 2/7 while it was available
Yes stoney i will reggie and bollie were awful again and we even got the judges rita and simon helping us out! The most one sided final in years it seems!
I’m not so sure rnb go through tonight either
Louisa and Rita pretty much nailed that one, tptb really made sure.. game set and just match to go,,
… and here is Rod Stewart again, thereby explaining why he did the duet with Che in the first place. It’s not as if this farce wasn’t long enough as it is…
Very hard on Che. I don’t think even Xtina was that off hand with Rebecca. And at least she can sing. Disgraceful really.
“How has it been working with Che?” “Oh, we only rehearsed this once this afternoon” – Rod off-script and Caroline and Olly hastily scrambling to spin that into a positive was priceless!
Funny what Rita said about Leona and Louisa being the two, and Olly standing right there. Could not make it up really.
Red and black and fire for Rod Stewart. The producers showing their intent here.
Is thar some boos at RnB chosen over Che or am I hearing things? I enjoy RnB to be fair
I only heard a lot of cheering, but I don’t know.
I heard the boos
I heard some boos.
So Che finished in the Luke Friend & Andrea Faustini memorial position of pointless 3rd finalist.
Do reggie and bollie have to sing the winners single tommorow?
Yes they do.
That should be a fun watch then