The latest Strictly season got started last weekend with the first full routine from each celebrity. It’s a competitive year with plenty of able dancers and attractive pairings. Frankie Bridge topped the initial leaderboard, closely followed by Pixie Lott, Simon Webbe and Caroline Flack. Eliminations start this coming week, giving punters even more reason to give it a twirl. Do feel free to share your thoughts below.
Simon Webbe showed the most talent, seems likeable enough, and should be favourite atm. Agree/disagree?
I think Simon actually came across a bit cocky, so he needs to be careful of that. Out of the two pop girls, I don’t see Frankie Bridge as the winner. She’s too bland personality wise and her group’s popularity is at an all time low. So she can’t even rely on a fanbase to carry her through. I think Pixie will get further, as she’s got a bit more spark to her. However, I think she’ll do a Holly Valance and leave just before the final. The stage school background will count against her.
Just like his run in I’m a Celebrity 2008 I see Simon Webbe finishing short of the final. He should initially impress and I expect him to be up there in the top male, if not the win market during early stages. However, as proven in the jungle, he does have a dull personality and if Strictly has shown us anything over the years it’s that you can’t succeed on dancing ability alone.
I’ll be tracking his odds looking to oppose his chances at the right moment.
Trust me, he will be nowhere near the finishing line.
http://goo.gl/p7jWWl
ive backed caroline to win, have no idea why, shes just very lieable, to both sexes i guess, and im sure she can dance, will start watching when it gets to the nitty gritty
Ditto, Caroline was my 1st wager a week or so ago, I remembered when she was shaking her booty with Joe Swash in let’s dance for comic relief a few years ago and did a great job of it. I thought she was under-marked on Friday. she will be topping the leader board shortly.
Found it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQYmhWsfUlc
For some reason Pixie Lott irritates the bejesus out of me. It seems really unfair because I don’t know why. I think it’s something to do with her mouth. I just don’t believe in her smile. I wonder, has she got some sort of inner tyrant making believe that she’s so happy? Anyway… does anyone else feel the same or am I just warped about her?
Personally I’ve got an eye on Mark Wright for top 3. He’s full of character, he’s fit and determined and he’s with Karen.
Greg Wallace is out after a dance ofg with Jennifer. Judy Murray must have some rehional support because she was dreadful.
*** SPOILER *** Tim and Mark were in the dance off. Mark was saved. Tim goes home.
Is anyone else still filling their boots with the 5’s available for caroline?
Scott out tonight.
I had the double with Jack. Great night for favorite backers
Caroline and Alison bottom 2
Alison out
Judy out at last.
Steve out
Sunetra out.
I had written off my Caroline bet but after last night she is back in the game
Anyone got any idea why Caroline is still an outsider to win? She just got the highest score last weekend and seems to poll highest online. I’ve had a little top up at 7’s
I think she topped the polls because she topped the leader board and she deserved it this week but she hasn’t been as consistent as Frankie or Pixie who are now receiving 9s or 10s most weeks, I sense that Pixie is not as well liked as Frankie and I’m sitting on Frankie as my only Green now.
Most likely she goes home this weekend if my run of luck continues.
What Andy said. Also I get the impression Jake is quite popular with the public and Simon is consistently very good although he doesn’t have the same level of public support.
With the right dances Caroline is great but she’s not an all rounder like some of the others.
Major surprise.
Simon v Pixie
Pixie out
Get in. Caroline wins now surely
Stoney I have been backing Caroline all week at 9/4 with my Im a celeb winnings.
Again, I should have listened to you when you backed our flacky at 7’s ages ago lol
Fingers crossed eh
Hope you don’t jinx me 😉
You concerned about the threat of frankie tash? Ive put a cover on at 2/1 which covers my caroline stake. Will top up the cover at the end of the week
My gut said Abbi would win last year early on in the series when she was priced at 7/1 and didn’t take it and it was the same this year with our flacky and again, I didn’t take the 7’s. No cover on frankie for me. Like Abbi last year, Flacky is leading all the online polls by far so would say i’m pretty confident. I used the profits I made on my final 2 combo for I’m a celeb which was a good one for me so won’t be gutted if she doesn’t make it.
Am actually tempted to go in for more once my x factor winnings clear if the odds drift back to evens
The same gut that told you Andrea would win? Lol. I have learnt the hard way that online polls don’t mean a lot in the real voting world. Im only covering 10 % of my total returns anyway so no big deal.
Yeh and I backed Andrea EW at 14/1 so not all bad
I swear earlier she drifted ever so slightly. Either way, may go in for the kill again
Caroline/frankie straight forecast 6/5 paddy power is probably the best value.
Nice on thanks, they don’t announce 1st 2nd and 3rd place though so how does that work? Also, by the time my XF winnings clear in my account those odds will be long gone lol
They must announce it at some point or they wouldn’t have a market on it. Caroline continues to shorten. Can’t get excited. This time last week I was sitting on a 1/3 shot that got trounced!
Ps your not gonna get evens. Shes shortening
Last 2 years they haven’t announced who as 2nd, bets placed on the forecast market have been settled as dead heats, more BBC rubbish.
I’ve gone in quite heavy on Caroline today, both Frankie and Caroline equal Greens, watched some of her recent dances again on you tube, she’s the one to beat I feel.
A male winner is going to be painful.
Cheers andy. Just out of interest when did you place money on frankie? Just wondering cosi don’t think I’ll put any more on her
Week 6.
After she danced her Tango to defying gravity.
As always with reality things changed again the week after.
Next year I am considering just laying early odds on favourites.
Another 3 over this period to add to a list of 11 this year that I posted earlier in XF column.
Laying Andrea at 10/11 was available early as was Jake 10/11 in SCJ.
Add 8/11 Jimmy in IAC and it would have been a very merry Christmas.
Should really keep that to myself though but I’m fond of all you guys.
And I hope Guildo makes a few appearances next year, I have really missed his humour.
A belated massive thank you to Daniel who gave me my biggest win of the year thanks to his coverage of Eurovision, a couple of lines he kept repeating made me stand up and take note of the 50/1 widely available.
Conchita nails her vocals again!
I owe you a pint or 3.
Thank you Daniel.
Karen’s tears could well put her and Mark into the final.
Well looks like caroline will be saving my Xmas if fleur can’t
JAKE OUT 🙂
Ok so can someone advise me I’m going to be a bit more cautious going into the final on this one.
I don’t follow strictly as much as x Factor. Is it safe to assume mark and simon having been bottom 2 a couple of times have no chance? I’m thinking I only need to cover against a frankie win?
Possible just to lay Caroline at short odds on Betfair and lock in a profit regardless.
Frankie and Caroline should be closer together in the betting IMO.
Guessing the final performances will be the clincher.
Don’t really understand the whole laying process. Isn’t it better to just put a couple of hundred on frankie rather than put the same amount against the Caroline win?
If we can safely rule out Simon and Mark then what you suggest would be more profitable, I feel confident Simon and Mark are not popular enough and only have money on Frankie & Caroline.
We’ll done for calling Fleur from a early stage, I honestly thought she would do it myself, and I think that she deserved it.
I was fortunate that I was watching the markets when the Ben news broke in the star and turned my book around, there was thousands won and lost because of that leak.
A good call counts for nothing when your frantically laying off a 3rd of your potential winnings on a 4/7 shot. Oh well no point dwelling on what might have been. I came out unscathed in the end.
Moving on to this weekend I think ill just put enough on frankie to ensure I have double my stakes returning no matter what. I think Caroline seems to be the more popular and in favour with the judges. She has all the momentum going into the final.
What is the format for the final. Is it all done on saturday or do they still have a Sunday show recorded/live? Is it public vote only? How are they eliminated?
I never manage to watch the finals of iacgmooh, X factor or strictly because I fly out for Christmas and new year. I only follow on digital spy, tellymix and of course sofabet, the time difference usually means I’m half asleep when the shows are in running. If I remember correctly the strictly final result is announced on the night of the dancing. One act leaves early then the lines reopen for a short time while the remaining acts dance once more. The judges do mark the contestants but the marks do not count towards the outcome which is public vote only. I agree with your Caroline motive but a little voice in the back of my head keeps telling me that Frankie is still in the running here. I would be happy for either of them to win but I have backed Frankie again this morning and she is now double the return of what Caroline would be.
Very best of luck on strictly, I think if you cover on Frankie you should guarantee a nice return.
Thanks mate. I prefer not to cover bets but must get at least one decent profit before xmas!
Hi Andy, you stated earlier:
”Last 2 years they haven’t announced who was 2nd, bets placed on the forecast market have been settled as dead heats, more BBC rubbish”
What do you mean by this? I placed a small straight forecast bet earlier Caroline/Frankie at 6/5. How would that get settled if Caroline comes 1st but they don’t announce who is 2nd (even if it is Frankie) ? Want to place a bigger bet tomorrow but won’t bother if it isn’t worth it?
Thanks
Natasha, if it’s any help to you, back in 2012 I also had a Strictly straight forecast – Dani finished in 4th place and Louis Smith won, however, 2nd and 3rd positions were not confirmed, Louis was simply announced as the winner from the final group of 3.
My bet was with William Hill and they did settle my straight forecast bet as a winner (part of a double), even though 2nd and 3rd positions were not announced.
If your bet is with the same bookmaker you might be okay, but do check their rules or submit a query.
http://goo.gl/4e9zIw
Paddy power are the only bookies offering the straight forecast this year. Thanks for your help 🙂
Hi Natasha
Strictly haven’t released who came 2nd and 3rd for the last 2 years, they just announced 2 contestants in joint 2nd place, I cannot remember who I placed my forecast with last year but the bet was settled as a dead heat meaning that half the stake is lost, the other half is settled as a winner, your 6/5 gamble would give you a little over your money back if this is what PP decide to do.
Best of luck
Thanks Andy, I think i’ll leave it then as doesn’t seem worth it
My boy’s still in play!
https://sofabet.com/2014/10/01/strictly-2014-discussion-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-41060
😀
Not sure he’ll manage to beat Simon though…..
That was great hindsight 10 weeks ago, most people couldn’t see past Jake and Simon for top male.
Did you place a wager ?
Sadly no. 🙁
I wish I’d looked out for the early Pixie exit because I thought that was going to happen too.
https://sofabet.com/2014/10/01/strictly-2014-discussion-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-41059
Caroline doing her Charleston in the final.
is this her best dance from the series? surely shed have been better doing the one that scored 40?
The Charleston was her biggest crowd pleaser. I don’t like Charlestons but they’re popular with the voting public and that’s what it’s about now, judges scores don’t count.
She couldn’t have chosen a more popular dance, and will most likely be given top marks along with Frankie’s paso and Simon’s AT, I’ve a feeling the judges will be throwing a few 40’s around in the final.
Since SCD has started Frankie has gone public about her long battle with anxiety and depression, not sure if it would make much difference on the night but thinking back to Beth Tweedle in 2013 DOI, any under marking on the night may lead to a sympathy vote, she is a lovely, genuine young lady who has become emotional already on a couple of occasions this series, watch out for any signs of tears on Saturday, it could be a game changer.
Please let me know if anything like this happens, I cannot watch on the night.
Caroline is now favourite. Will she suffer the curse of previous Strictly favourites like Susanna Reid? If she was Pixie Lott I’d be saying yes. In her favour she seems much more likeable than either of those two.
She has been favourite for over a week now. I don’t remember any favorite being this short last year. Shes hugely popular. Can’t see this one letting me down
I wish I’d backed Mark for top male back when I named him 3 weeks ago. I’d be wetting myself right now. He was long odds iirc.
As for you Stoney, I hope you get this one. After Jimmy and then Fleur it’d be rough on you if you miss out on Caroline as well.
I certainly don’t class jimmy as one that got away. He was a favourite from the start. But seeing as I was still backing caroline a few weeks ago at 7’s it will be harsh if she loses it from this position. She is smashing the polls to pieces. Way mpre clearly than fleur was. But anything can happen. If this comes in its been a successful month from the 3 reality programmes. If not its been a month to forget!
We’re in this together stoney my friend. Lets get another one before christmas 🙂
Ho ho ho 🙂
Lets ho ho hope its a cracker!! Shes smashing all online polls as abbi did last year and she was trading at 7/2 the day before the final. Everyone loves our flacky 🙂
And her show-dance is a stylish contemporary number like guest pro’s do. If she needed a clincher that’s it.
The Flacklash begins……
Is it too late to have an effect?
[a]http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2881285/Forget-lovers-Caroline-s-naughtiest-secret-s-actually-TRAINED-dancer.html[/a]
Sorry.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2881285/Forget-lovers-Caroline-s-naughtiest-secret-s-actually-TRAINED-dancer.html
I hate to say it but if this story is repeated in the other papers tomorrow morning then it could all be over for Caroline. People will think she’s a cheat.
Don’t worry Jessica it won’t be repeated because it’s a non story. Most finalists have always had training. Fortunately. It would be much duller if they were all novices.
It’s also worth pointing out that the kind of dance she learnt is very different from the kind of dancing you need to master on the show.
Drifting in the odds today. Obviously in relation to this story. Is this an x factor type tactic to deramp an act on final day?
it is drifting as a reaction to this story about vote leak:
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/strictly/416364/Strictly-s-final-Caroline-Flack-and-Frankie-Bridge
Can’t view it. I take it frankie is topping it. Is it credible?
thats ahat is ritten there:
Former Xtra Factor host Caroline is the bookies’ favourite to take the glitterball trophy.
But according to leaked votes it is Frankie, 25, from The Saturdays who has been pulling in the most support from viewers in recent weeks.
Tonight they will battle it out against fellow fi nalists ex-Towie hunk Mark Wright, 27, and Blue’s Simon Webbe, 36.
But all the signs are that it is going to be one of the girls who waltzes off as champion.
All four claim the contest has changed their lives for the better.
Caroline, 34, may have recently split from her music boss boyfriend Jack Street and been dropped from The Xtra Factor, but she says Strictly has opened her eyes to new possibilities.
She revealed: “I feel much more confident. It’s opened up my mind to doing other things in the future.” Frankie, who is married to football ace Wayne Bridge, 34, said: “It’s really helped to build up my confidence.”
Mark was desperate to learn some fancy steps so he could perform a decent fi rst dance at his wedding next year to ex Corrie babe Michelle Keegan, 27.
And Simon admits: “This experience has been a lifeline for me.”
Strictly: The Final is on BBC One tonight at 6.30pm and the winner is crowned in a second show starting at 8.50pm. Here we take a look at the runners and riders and how they stack up..
Doesn’t really give much information there. Seems like it’s all to play for.
But this does have a feeling of last weekend all over again 🙁
I am taking Frankie at 2.8 at Betfair at the moment and then wait until Caroline drifts to above 2 to place a savin bet.So lets say if you bet 1000 on Frankie at 2.8 and then 1000 on Caroline at 2 upards you ont loose either way.
And the odds on Caroline will drift out toards the evening as the casual punter reacts to the leak.It is only 9:28 in the morning in the UK and many people are sleeping.
Look what happened after that X Factor leak one week ago.I personally do not know who is going to win and only want to take opportunity of waking up early.
Lots of activity on Betfair while you lot was sleeping.
Frankie touched 11/10 at one stage, the leak came around 4am uk time.
Have laid a small amount of caroline winnings onto frankie at 2/1. I would say judging by the past few shows caroline is the favoured one and has massive online support. The rest will just be a case of how tonight goes
I’d like to say thanks to the Daily Star again. They look over us and give us a slap now and again.
Ooh is this the deathslot for frankie?
Wow that should do it for our flacky 🙂 amazing
Agreed my friend 🙂 x
who is winning with facebook likes? I know it doesnt mean a lot but Abbi had the most by far last year
Well done stoney 🙂
well done 🙂 I should have listened to you at the beginning and took 7’s but 9/4 was good enough for me. Good call and merry christmas 🙂
Merry xmas tash and to all at sofa bet yeeeeeeha 🙂
Can anyone tell me what odds Simon Webbe reached on Betfair during/after his final Argentine Tango? Was he anywhere near Frankie?
I think I saw Frankie go out to around 6 or 7 and Simon into about 9 or 10
Thanks, Paolobow.