A lack of entries that scream ‘winner!’ creates interesting betting activity in the early-doors Eurovision market on Betfair. In 2011, a small bit of 200 was available about eventual 3.5 favourite ‘Sognu’ as it premiered on French television, one of the last songs to be shown.
The revelation of Armenia’s song last night saw a smaller but still significant price crash from 17 to around 5, where it challenges for favouritism. Actually, a few poor-quality videos of Aram MP3 performing ‘You’re Not Alone’ in a late January concert existed on YouTube. As a result, some shrewdies were taking prices in the high teens and above in expectation of what happened.
This price crash may not be the only one in a feverish last weekend of Eurovision selections. The Norwegian final is tonight and we’re waiting to hear the Russian and Azeri entries too. Those who like to trade will be keeping their fingers close to the trigger. But what are the chances for those sitting on double-figure prices of an Armenian win?
The song is not typical Eurovision fare. It starts off as a ballad whose instrumentation builds with piano, strings, percussion and wind. Nearly two-thirds of the way through, the dubstep kicks in, providing an epic contrast with the other instrumentation, until the final few seconds brings us back down again.
It’s a big tune: structurally daring, contemporary and cinematic in feel. There’s tension during the build and power in the way it breaks. The question is whether that will satisfy a Saturday night audience who like their Eurovision songs more mainstream, with a traditional structure of two choruses, a bridge and a climax.
This is a potential stumbling block. But in its favour, ‘You’re Not Alone’ is arguably more exciting than any other song on offer so far. If performed well, I think it will stand out. For these reasons, I reckon it’s a possible winner if they get the staging right.
What are my thoughts on presentation? The instrumentation plays a key part in the song throughout, so that needs to be represented effectively on stage. It is from here that we’ll have to see some movement, perhaps with each musician stepping forward as their instrument is introduced and interacting with each other as they continue over the dubstep beat.
There’s nearly a minute of repetition of the main refrain at this point. There is some variation in this line but not much – and there’ll have to be greater visual variation instead to maintain the sense of build and change. But the potential is there for a concert feel to be recreated in the arena.
Aram is a popular television personality as well as singer in Armenia, so there is hope that he understands the importance of getting the song across visually. But the annals of Eurovision show that when staging is important, it’s just as likely to disappoint. There’s no doubt which first rehearsal I’m most looking forward to seeing.
Looking at other factors in its chances, Armenia is a big hitter given that it represents the large ex-USSR bloc and has diaspora in places like Spain, France, Belgium and Netherlands. It’s lost traditional voting allies Cyprus and Bulgaria this year, though Poland’s return is a smaller positive. It’s thus very well placed to pick up points from many countries if the staging is successful.
There is a debate about how much certain big hitters have been unduly punished in the jury vote in those countries where a large televote is guaranteed. I used the example of Romania’s treatment by the Spanish jury for an article on this subject.
But arguably, those songs that were punished – you could use examples such as Russia 2011 and Turkey 2012 alongside Romania 2013 – were not jury-friendly anyway. Some of those countries have occasionally performed better than expected in the jury vote – the Russian grannies in 2012 and Hadise for Turkey in 2009 spring to mind.
I’m not unduly worried therefore by Armenia’s rather disappointing record over the last few years under the increasing power of the juries. I think this has largely reflected the songs they have sent. In ‘You’re Not Alone’, we potentially have something very jury-friendly: original, ultra-contemporary and dynamic. Given Armenia’s televote strength, it’s in a very good relative position overall.
What do you think of ‘You’re not Alone’: potential winner or possible fanwank? The market is not all-knowing – let’s remember, France 2011 ended up flopping as much as Amaury Vassili’s hair. Let us know how you think Armenia will get on below.
Strong competent entry in a weak year + jury love + televote big-hitter in years with above average entries + strong singer + song offering potential for great stage presentation + motivation to do as well as opening years after couple of out-of-form years = at the very least dangerous.
“If performed well, I think it will stand out. For these reasons, I reckon it’s a possible winner if they get the staging right.”
Can’t formulate it better than this.
It does kinda feel like a 5 minute song they’ve had to hack to pieces to fit into 3 minutes. It takes ages to get going and then they run out of time. However It’s a refreshingly different entry and it’s clearly going to do well. Right now I’d say shoo-in for top 5 but not convinced it has enough widespread appeal to win.
I think the structure of ‘Not Alone’ has impact – it won’t be an accident that it’s been structured the way it has, with one verse, and a looooong chorus, winding up to a quiet ending. My feeling is that succinct songs always come across better on the Eurovision stage – ultimately audiences are fickle and might quickly get bored if a song feels like it’s going on for too long (I think San Marino is definitely guilty of this waffliness this year) whereas a song with ‘oomph’ that is over in a flash makes you sit up and say “Whoa that was good”, before you really have time to think about it and make a negative decision about it. I don’t know enough about juries’ habits to decide if it would go down well with them or not, but ‘Not Alone’ feels like a good short 3 minutes, which, in a show where the audience is trawling through 26 songs, is a blessing. The fact it’s so bombastic and epic helps it all the more, I feel.
This is where the semi final helps those countries that go through it (and disadvantages the big 5). Because it helps to know what’s coming I think with this. I find the first 1 min 26 seconds tired and dull and then the woodwind starts and it starts to hot up leading to a very powerful second half which I enjoy. Can anybody think of an ESC winner like that? (I’m not saying that would prevent a win.)
I agree that the staging should highlight the instrumentation and not have them in the shadows. Even the music video focuses at some point on each of the instruments – woodwind, drums, brass, piano. The music video incidentally features two classic British cars.
I don’t mean woodwind starts at 1.26, I mean string instruments of course. (It’s been a long day).
I don’t have much to add to the comprehensive comments above.
It offers something a bit unique, it builds slowly but its dramatic nature holds the viewers interest, its structure comes over as interesting and unique as opposed to user-unfriendly, and Aram is easy on the eye.
However I agree entirely that the staging/live performance will make or break. If they get it right and manage to convey the drama I think it could be challenging for the win.
Fat boy Axel wins the Belgian final with a homage to his mother.
Leave him alone.
🙂 Well he is fat.
Yes, he is, but you don’t have to be a dick about it.
Well it goes well with his song. If some Johnny Handsome would sing about his mother like this nobody would pay attention.
It does, it’s the overall package. It’s a bit too oedipal for me though.
“Yes, he is, but you don’t have to be a dick about it.”
Oh, I thought you were being jovial. I’m fat. I’m sure he won’t take it personally.
Let we assume Aram’s rehearsal goes well and he remains one of the bookie favorites. I’m of course not sure if televoters are going to like or not but I’m pretty certain nobody will go to the toilet during that first minute.
I’m not going to argue if the songs holds interest or not but there is a simple reason for “one minute test” not to be applicable in that case: he will be announced as one of the pre-contest favorites. Commentators during semis/final always give some background info about performers and always mention when someone is a favorite. I can imagine that people will sit through the whole song to see why.
That’s an excellent point.
Well, that rather shows how people are influenced by commentators and media. Such influencers skew the results and make the contest less interesting, in my opinion.
If Georgia can have an average to decent score with the jury with a standard ballad in 2013, I think this song can even do better. It is more original in sound and buildup and I am sure the diaspora will have a big influence in the televote. It will definitely be a top 10 in the final when the votes are combined. But I am not seeing it as a winner, more a top 5 finish. It stands out and I think people will support it. Boom Boom had a decent televote score in 2011 and it was a dreadful song and I knew they would go to the final in 2013 after the unexpected 2011 result and missing the 2012 contest. I think people really wanna see Armenia back in the top again and this song really surprised me. It also is one of the few guys singing a ballad. Unfortunately it is not a very memorable song but with effective staging I think it can have a decent score like Safura.
It’s rubbish.
Oh, sorry, thought you were referring to Georgia 2014…
it’s like someones taken two really mediocre but very different songs and stuck them together with superglue.
amazingly creating something with massive impact.
the whole is definitely greater than the sum of the parts…
How come no one’s talking about the Danish entry? Am I missing something? Arguably the most instant entry thus far, catchy, full of hooks, credible enough, contemporary, radio-friendly, crushed its competition in its NF with both televoters and juries, nicely middle-of-the-road, accessible, Saturday night sing-a-long friendly, telegenic enough singer, well sung and performed, nice gold lighting for the staging, doesn’t have to get through a semi-final, extremely high YouTube views from a short period, potential to catch on both before and during the contest in all parts of Europe…and now with a PERFECT draw of 23 as well. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m beginning to smell Copenhagen 2015. This should be challenging for favouritism in the market along with United Kingdom and Hungary imo. The only potential negative I can consider is, will it score highly enough with the juries when up against yr Azerbaijans and Armenias? It’s a very open year (not a crap one) and I don’t see why Denmark can’t win again.
With that draw, I think it will be top 10 – it’s a catchy, well-performed mainstream song, fun and telegenic – but I think it’s too generic to win. Bruno Mars album track. It won’t get enough jury to win either, though juries are unlikely to punish it either. I see it 6-10 in the final results.
I don’t even wanna contemplate Copenhagen 2015, I’m not going to CPH-Malmö three years running…
No one’s making you go to Copenhagen next year (or any year).
Thank you Tim, I wasn’t aware of that.
Hi Tim, I haven’t written about it at the moment, but I have every sympathy with your view on the Danish entry. More hooks than a coat stand and an engaging performer. Not only good staging but great movement also.
One thing I am interested in is the slight but highly effective autotune effect on his voice (something the Danes used brilliantly in their 2000 victory). Hopefully that will remain.
Tim, I wouldn’t be surprised if he tops the televote but agree with ev about juries. The only thing I don’t get is mentioning UK in any context.
I’m in agreement with EV. Top 10 but not a winner. It’s not that it isn’t an entertaining, accessible, well performed song, it’s just very typical of the Danes to send this sort of cheeky Jack-the-Lad song. It absolutely reeks of Bruno Mars, and if I were you Tim, I would be looking into what parts of Europe he charts in to give you a better idea of who’s likely to vote for it. I don’t think it’s broad enough, it’s very American, very “nu-60s retro” a bit like Serbia 2011, and it’s a style arguably rooted in music of black origin. Jackson 5 anyone? Race of performer isn’t the issue here, but the style is.
I think it’s just going to give off a really great “host country, yay celebrate, welcome to Denmark, thanks for voting for us last year” vibe. Stjernberg kinda had that too. Not a winner’s vibe.
Be daring then Ben. Who do you have as potential winner at this stage? Or three potential winners? You can always change your opinion during the upcoming days, weeks, if new videos or performances impress you more…or less.
Armenia or the UK. I have a couple of outsiders in mind too, but the market isn’t rating them very highly right now.
Yeah Tim, as you detail, it has a chock-a-bloc rainbow of good things going for it.
Cute singer and song, worthy of all the Bruno Mars and Olly Murs comparisons.
Bit too cute for its own good and slightly annoying, maybe? But then,I suppose the same could easily be said about last year’s Danish entry…
Also: just realised that the 3 songs you mention are probably the same 3 I rate as best so far.
Totally agree Tim. I was baffled when people said the Danish final was wide open when Basim clearly had the best entry by a country mile. It’s so damn catchy and very well performed. The Eurofans seem to hate it for some reason. It might be cheesy but how can they not see the appeal of it? Now with this draw they might be almost unstoppable.
Right from the very first moment I saw that performance, I had Denmark as the only country on 1st place. For me the staging of Basim’s entry was not just ‘slick’. It was pure, genuine happiness.
And whereas the comparisons song-wise with “Fairytale” (Norway 2009) are a bit farfetched, I do see in both cases two very genuine ethnic boys, who can charm everyone.
So I completely agree here with Ben. All the Eurofan-polls…..goodbye and goodluck. I personally would love to see, finally after so many decades, a back-to-bak win :-D.
After so many decades? Have you forgotten Ireland in the 90s?
Same for me regarding Denmark. It pretty much ticks every one of my boxes for a winning song and performance, Tim pretty much covered them all in his post. An improvement in the messy camera work from the national final is required but apart from that its ready to go.
The issue is of course juries – there is just a little too much nonsense – shoob-be-dooby-dub in there – which concerns me. But overall its a highly competitive package.
Eurovision is also about emotions. An aspect we almost never discuss in here. It has been a fact ever since the Eurovision Song Contest started in 1956. Both televoters and judges need to get goosebumps from a particular element of a ballad (Estonia 2012)….or they need to feel ‘touched’ by some sincerely and genuinely performed happiness (Basim, Dansk Melodi Grand Prix)…..or get a cuddly feeling from a guy who’s barely looking into the camera (Hungary 2013)
And trust me, taking that part into account is still difficult for people who are placing bets. Because for placing a bet, you need to be cold-hearted, you need to take certain statistics into account. I could therefore understand that certain betters would not like to bet on Hungary entering the TOP 10 last year.
But for me, this is a very nice ánd important aspect of Eurovision. Taking that aspect of ’emotion’ into account, I still have the best ‘feelings’ when listening the entries from Denmark, Belgium, Malta and Netherlands. Off course, not all of them will do well. But it’s surely an indicator.
Having said so, I have made this TOP 15 ranking (based on: chanses, statistics, type of song, its uniqueness among the field, latest available performances, stunning vocals, ánd forecasting how ’emotions’ from the European televoter and judges could help the entry do well):
01 – DENMARK (pure, genuine, Danish happiness)
02 – BELGIUM (big man + angel voice + “Mother”)
03 – UKRAINE (new version)
04 – Norway (I don’t “feel” it yet to make victory possible)
05 – Armenia (I don’t “feel” victory here either)
06 – France (underestimated happiness)
07 – Estonia (underestimated “copycat”)
08 – Hungary (bit of a fanwank?)
09 – Malta (heart-felt bunch country singers)
10 – Netherlands (simplicity á-lá Ireland 1994)
11 – Azerbaijan (finally a result outside the TOP 10?)
12 – Spain (new version works, but tone down the voice)
13 – Moldova (great staging, but formulaic production)
14 – Israël (charismatic performer)
15 – Sweden (great staging, but does it “touch” me?)
Just missing out – United Kingdom (great song, but staging?), Poland (“Moja Stikla”, Croatia 2006) and Germany (wunderful “Amélie”-like song, but rehearsals are needed).
We are still waiting for Russia (not for another annexation-attempt) and Austria. I am curious what you guys think :-).
I agree with your observation Gert, but not with your ranking. It feels too much like your personal preferences, and these could be influenced by factors such as songs growing on you after multiple listens.
Hmmm, I tend to slightly disagree. It is actually the other way around for me. Songs that I actually don’t like at first I put straight away in the ranking. For instance France or Armenia. Not my cup of tea.
Yes, after more listenings, I learned to appreciate the “freshness” of France or the “uniqueness” of Armenia. But that doesn’t influence the ranking. At least, I try to do that. Once better performances become available, then that will influence the ranking. Based on all the info I have this is the ranking for the moment.
Perhaps the difference is that I only focus on the prediction of a near-perfect TOP 10 later on (right now TOP 15), whereas betters won’t lay a whole bet on a TOP 10-outcome….if that is possible in the first place.
It’s also difficult, because “emotions” are touching personal elements of taste. I know. But could I ask you then….what your ranking for the moment would be? Be daring. Try not to guide yourself by personal taste, but by the simple question…
“What would the final TOP 15 result be if the 59th Eurovision Song Contest was held today?”
I enjoy your focus on emotional content, Gert, but then I’m a big Bruce Lee fan…so I would!
But I tend to agree with Ben also about the subjectivity of emotional response.
For example, as much as I like and appreciate the upbeat song and performance of the Denmark song, I also think eurovicious has a point when he describes it as ‘too generic’.
After listening to a raft of navel-gazing songs, it does strike as a breath of fresh air, but it is soooo determinedly, incessantly hook-packed that it does feel a bit contrived and calculated, for all its bounciness.
Its post-modern, ironic title ‘Cliché Love Song’ also doesn’t completely let if off the hook for featuring ‘Boom-Bang-A-Bang’ level lyrics throughout.
Still, I know its a “copy”, if you know what I mean, but it just has enough charm and variety to let me forgive it, accept it as a superior copy and judge it on its own terms, and go with its flow.
Hi again Gert,
Yours is a thought-provoking post that I find yet more interesting on each subsequent re-visit.
It would be great if you would expand further on the subject of emotion and songs.
To that end, and in that respect, what is your take on last year’s winner, Emmelie Charlotte-Victoria de Forest with Only Teardrops?
It wasn’t my favourite, but I understood why it won, and don’t consider it a markedly unworthy winner. All told, it was very good. But I’d be hard pressed to specify what emotion it generated in me or in the masses of voters for it.
What emotion did Only Teardrops work on?
I think emotion is always….yes, always part of our judgment. Even for the cold-hearted die-hard betters in here.Let’s not forget, Eurovision is still a pure ‘jury sport’. Artists in Eurovision are always dependent on the fate of others. Judge, televoter or better…it is impossible to shut off emotions. Look to Belgium this year. The reason why people -and sites like Oddchecker- place it so high, is because Axel is ‘touching’ certain feelings, but also because he’s cute the physical presence (call it the Chiara-factor)..
Same with Belgium last year. Roberto Bellarosa looked like a wunderful cutypie! The little sheer of happiness at the end of his performance was heart-felt. I wanna bet jurors and televoters were thinking something like “Aaaah gosh, look at that innocent cutypie! Goosebumpy hereee :-)!”.
I personally am not thatt good at predicting the winner. But I predicted last year’s outcome for my country completely correct: 9th. I think people also felt charmed by Hungary, Malta and to a lesser extent Lithuania. Those performances were pure, despite some flaws that we usually find killing for a good result. For those performances certain statistical ‘rules’, like ‘watching in the camera’, ‘close-ups’, ‘vocals’, ‘being nervous’, ‘the build-up of the song’ do not always apply. On the contrary, they can sometimes help a song….
And, as a sensitive person, I have a thing for those underappreciated ‘gems’ in Eurovision ;-). Those entries that will never win, but which can always do a nice TOP 15 placing (Which is always a great result in an Olympic-sized event with around 40 participants). Think about Estonia 2012, Germany 2011, Ukraine 2010, Germany 2012, Malta 2013 and Hungary 2013. And off courseeee Italy 2011.
For that reason, I think entries like Malta, France, Netherlands and to a lesser extent Denmark are completely overlooked in the most recent polls and on Oddschecker. Man, that Danish boy gives me goosebumps. And the climax with the Danish flag makes you bathe in pure utter happiness. For the same reason I know that Ilse and Waylon (The Common Linnets) have some very nice surprises for us in Copenhagen. I wanna bet the hall will be completely quiet for that entry.
Where is Greece? Even though they missed the top 15 in 2012, I don’t see them scoring lower than 15th place this year. Diaspora still have a lot of influence. But I see what you mean by emotion. I felt that with Hungary in 2013. It was such a happy song that stood out. But still I didn’t think it would have a top 10 finish performing so close to Denmark in the final. But it didn’t surprise me that it ended up in the top 10. Usually I only get the emotion feeling while on the night of the semi or final. Than you can really feel it. I liked the austrian entry last year and the performance in the national final. It gave me some kind of feeling. But the performance in the semifinal was very bad and though I still liked the song, the feeling was gone and then I knew it didn’t stand a chance. I wouldn’t count too much on your emtions this early. I had that with Estonia 2011 and look where Getter ended up 😛
Was searching for the Russian entry and laughed at myself when I realised why I couldn’t find the song ‘TBA’.
I believe these two will be representing Mother Russia this year:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ5sIe4avIE
The opening of this song brings to mind (in a not unpleasant way) Sonia’s ‘You’ll Never Stop Me From Loving You’? (and thence popped into a mild mix machine).
Will the official Euro entry song-style be produced from a similar ilk?
Classy, gorgeous, blandly melancholic and a bit wallowy.
This is like the kind of track you discover as you sit back and listen to a singer-songwriter’s album play through late at night. Moodily enjoyable in that context.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ5sIe4avIE
If Eurovision were to have it’s own anthem this year I would suggest Elton’s Sad Songs (Say So Much).
N.B. The above video link is: Dilara Kazimova – Start A Fire (Azerbaijan).
Am surprised at the number of boring “3/4 songs” / of unfinished symphonies / moody counselling-session-transcript-for-lyrics entries at or near the head of the market.
Exactly Guildo. And does that sort of thing win Eurovision? Nae it doesnae.
Daniel could you do a review of the Ukraine? I’m interested in how you and commentators here think the political situation will change things.
5 out of the 6 top donor countries to the Ukraine are Russian diaspora countries. Russia itself is number 10. These expat Russians may not be happy with recent events in Ukraine, such as the attempt recently to abolish Russian as one of the official languages of Ukraine – there are large Russian speaking regions in Ukraine. We only get a one sided view from the western media.
However the indigenous peoples of these donor countries may now more supportive of Ukraine. But I think the ESC strength of these countries has been the Russian diaspora voting for each other. Will Ukraine now lose that?
* “donor” = ESC vote donor
I count on a ‘more than usual’ support from the west exactly because of that one sided media view.
Hi Henry, you make some great points. I find it hard to know how the political situation will impact how it scores (and we can’t be sure what the situation will be by May). Maybe Boki is right here.
Judging the song alone, I think it’s much improved after the revamp. I really enjoy the chorus and the whole package imitates Russia 2007. But it’s incredibly incoherent as a pop song, takes ages to get to the chorus, and would in normal circumstances be a likely example of a “jury drop” in the final. In other words – see its jury score drop a lot from the semi given the stronger competition the final offers.
Gavin asked me about this yesterday and I think Ukraine will get a perhaps not inconsiderable sympathy vote from the west and its sympathetic neighbours, including juries, plus the package we see on the night is of course likely to be very professional, as ever. As to Russia losing votes due to geopolitical events, I think ex-USSR countries without a large Russian minority (like Lithuania and Georgia) will turn their backs, but Russian allies (Armenia) and countries with large Russian minorities (Estonia, Latvia) won’t – but their juries will, mitigating the effect of the pro-Russian televote to a large extent under the new system.
Ain’t nobody like being invaded by Russia.
“we belong to each other, like a sister to a brother” thank God that lyric was dropped. I don’t like the Ukraine this year, it’s unlikely to hit the heights of last year for them. Denmark have the hook of the competition this year, and although I feel will do well on the televote, it’s very “textbook hook” for me and juries will score it mid-table I think. Getting back to Aram mp3, this has me in two minds, first mind is telling me, this song has won the jury vote no doubt at all, Daniel you mentioned that this could be won or lost by the staging. Well I can’t see how they will get this wrong, the song has a one minute build which I imagine will be dark staging rather like Loreen, but the first minute has a beautiful piano intro along with Aram’s very may I say “soulful voice” along with the violin strings and what I can only describe as “dope” drumming. The price drop on Armenia this year to favorite is the right market reaction, and I really can see this shorting up even still. Sweden shortened to 2.8 on betfair 2012, and Denmark last year were 1.89 come kick off. I can see this going off even shorter say 1/2 high street bookies, maybe 1.58 betfair. How ever my second mind reminds me about the draw, last year we had six of the top ten clumped together on the second half of the draw, a first half draw may have the televoters totally forgotten about it. but by the the time we see the staging and get the draw, price will no doubt be odds on, and all value gone. It’s a difficult to call it, but I say Armenia have it in the bag if they get a second half draw, I’m not laying Hungary just yet. But nothing in the top ten betting is saying out and out winner, but Aram mp3 gets the nod.
Just watched Aram and his performance and that song kicks serious ass. Really like his voice and his variation of tone and emphasis. Cuts through the spate of maudlin self-obsessed dirges littering this year’s contest like hot nunchucks through an ornate butter dish.
His message in the song seems to be, ‘I’m here with you, ok, I’m here with you – right: now WAKE THE F**K UP! WAKE UP! and here I am still with you’. Tender than forceful. Can imagine female viewers, in particular, finding themselves stirred to vote.
I wouldn’t say the song is perfect, though. The constant building and stepped layering of instrumentation and soundscapes is a terrific strength but did leave me feeling a touch unsatisfied at the end. But not to the extent of Carl or Sanna. Not Alone delivers its resolution to its own terms, and who would want to argue with this kick-ass song?!
Not Alone is like a dynamic, alpha, muscular older brother to the ineffectual Silent Storm. Silent Storm secretly longs to be Not Alone. The comic book geek who aspires to be the superhero.
Am looking forward to seeing how Not Alone is staged.
Tender then forceful then tender: is what I meant to write re Not Alone. In comparison, Silent Storm is weak then a blip of stirring to life then weakly fading again.
But there’s no way I’ll be backing it at odds of 9/5 (its current price on betfair). Think the value is long gone for it. Will be looking elsewhere.
I know some bookies as short as 11/8, and I’m sure it will shorten. but with no draw place yet. I wouldn’t recommend backing, because it could get beaten. Hungary is the only serious contender IMO. if Aram mp3 does go odds on I will become a layer.
Just watched Belgium’s entry.
Heartfelt (yet not cloying) performance. Nice, big vocal. Likeable singer.
Yet:
Where’s the melody?! Where’s the freaking melody?! Does it even have one?
Try humming along to the song. There’s nothing to hum to. It’s all about the vocal. In this sense Mother compares very poorly with a comparably themed song like say Bette Midler’s Wind Beneath My Wings.
A love letter to mummy set to the blandest most forgettable musical background. He should have just written her a letter.
I’m not touching this until I hear the song performed live. I think in ESC it’s all about how you deliver the song. The song itself is very important but even the best song can be ruined by unprofessional artists, choreographers, camera work, etc. I think everyone is overrating Armenia. No one heard the song performed live and choreography of performance in unknown. There are too many unknown variables. I thing true favourites for today are Sweden, UK and Denmark. These are the songs I can imagine winning. I don’t think Sweden’s song is old fashioned at least in ESC context. UK is very promising. eurovicious made so many educated comments about UK song and why it should win that I really started believing him. Denmark has very radio friendly, very catchy, full of hooks song that left me a very good impression when I first listened to it. Denmark also has perfect draw in the final. Ballads from Norway, Belgium and Azerbaijan can be easily forgotten and jury will not save them if televoters ignore them. Hungary is my fourth favourite. It’s very interesting song, good vocals and choreography but I don’t think most TV viewers will like drum and bass part.
agree with you on Hungary……last song with “running” in the title did rather well at ESC I recall,,,,,,def dark horse.
Just watched Not Alone performed live http://youtu.be/slQGMUMfEUI
This video justified Aram’s vocal strength. This live version sounded as good as studio version which is very good. Now there’s only performance that is unknown. However, I still don’t believe Aram could win. His song is a bit far way from the pop genre that usually win Eurovision but let’s wait see.