I’m A Celebrity, Strictly and Off-Topic Discussion Thread

Sofabet’s main writing team won’t be covering I’m A Celebrity (though any commenter interested in guest-posting is always welcome to email us). Here’s a thread for anyone who fancies discussing it. Heisenberg got the ball rolling by describing Joey Essex as the result of “a secret experiment which was devised in 1990 to create the consummate reality television show participant”. Travis is on, too.

Please also feel free to use this as a continuation of the last off-topic discussion thread for sharing thoughts on Strictly and anything else.

295 comments to I’m A Celebrity, Strictly and Off-Topic Discussion Thread

  • AlisonR

    Value in next Strictly elimination nxt weekend? Do you think Mark will bounce?

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Alison,

    Am swerving the Saturday Strictly markets so as to concentrate on the outright. Haven’t strongly fancied anyone to to be golden heeled all series long until now: have been happy having that 2/1 for Susanna.

    Time doesn’t permit an Ashes preview from this keyboard so I’ll keep to detailing my selections:

    Top Batsman (Series)

    Ian Bell – 8/1

    Top Australian Batsman (Series)

    Steven Smith – !0/1

    Top Bowler (Series)

    James Anderson – 9/2

    Team with Highest Scoring Innings (Series)

    Australia – 10/11

    Also an MMA canvas bounce for this strong fancy:


    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Revisiting the weekend Strictly markets.

      Last week on Strictly, Bruno commented thus: ‘For a non-dancer in this time you’ve had to do something like this is un-be-liev-a-ble!’ He said this to Abbey.

      It could have been in reaction to this:


      …and / or could be also interpreted as a subtle, implied dig at Natalie.

      Probably the former intention, I should say, though the latter result would also make a small mark (intended or not).

      If Mark is in the B2, SCD may be interested in how they could optimise any agenda they may have, from trying to arrange for their competitor of choice to be saved over Mark in a B2 dance off (Surely to God any of the rest of the field would be saved over Mark).

      The waning Sophie at 6/1 for B2 is probably worth a second look and even Nataie at 10/1, with tied leader-board scores becoming (inevitably) more frequent, is worth consideration. The craziness of her being in a dance-off versus Mark might be an inviting scenario?

      Now, Susanna has that sensation of being everyone’s new favourite Strictly dancer and she may now be crushing the vote and thus taking votes away from the other girls. Sophie star has faded considerably back from that so-long-ago-now Charleston and that’s why the 6/1 is interesting.

      Calling Daniel Gould!
      I say ‘everyone’s new favourite Strictly dancer’…but that’s not strictly true, is it?!

      Abbey at 3/1 is of less appeal as she was only recently a B2er and her voting base will still be motivated.

      *Please note I haven’t been monitoring the training room footage and am speculating without that knowledge.

      • Guildo Horn Forever


        Early days in SCD, but here’s an opportunity for you to mention at what point in the Strictly series you pegged Susanna as the probable winner… !

        • Daniel

          Hey Guildo, sorry I missed this post. Susanna has been a personal favourite since after the first proper dance, as you know, but I haven’t had a penny on, so there’s nothing to boast about. Hope you are on at a nice price though.

  • Henry VIII

    Daniel, Andrew, Dugg you should have a forum on this site. Forums usually increase site traffic dramatically.

    Pick a nice off-the-shelf one. The one Digital Spy uses is clear and easy to use. Then rather than having comments after your articles, which are difficult for readers to keep track of, you could start new threads with each new article title.

    The Betfair forum hasn’t allowed new members for a while and their intention is to close it. Silly, from a business sense, but so are many of their decisions.

    • Thanks for the thought, Henry, I agree it’s definitely worth thinking about now given that there is clearly interest in discussing events that we don’t feel expert enough to write articles about. Will look into what WordPress plugins are available and how we could integrate them (unfortunately, none of us are especially tech-savvy here, so it may take us a while to figure it out).

  • Jessica Hamby

    In I’m A Celerbrity I’m looking at Rebecca Adlington and Steve Davis. Will aso be interesting to see how Vincente Simeone comes across. Kisn also looks good. Amy’s response to her trial tonight could enf her but won’t make her. She needs to bond with the other girls or else be attacked by them to have a chance. Kian is interesting and will come into it if it gets nasty in there because he is very steady. I don’t think Joey Essex will win. He’s peaked too soon and his Peter Pan, holy fool, man-child act is going to become increasingly wearing imo.

    • Dean

      I may be wrong but after last night can’t see Becca winning it. She came across as very bitchy with the whole Amy good looking thing. As I read from several on twitter it’s Amy’s job and life and it felt almost like bullying a bit. She can redeem herself. I think Steve Davis has a chance only if Joey mucks it up somehow.

      • Jessica Hamby

        Time will tell. As I say, I think Joey has peaked too soon and his “what does that mean?” schtick is going to get tired before long. I’m bored of it already. He remids me of David Haye in that he is seen as the guy who can do all the trials and gets all the attention – but this is the wrong time for that. Steve and Kian are definitely there for the long haul and will emerge from the pack toeards the end. Vincente is going to challenge Joey for the title of “clown” and Vincente also has the dancer’sbody and is very heterosexual. He will challenge Joey for Amy’s attention.

        Rebecca v Amy is interesting. Amy is not a girl who likes girls. Becca has issues about her looks and sees Amy fishing for, and getting, a lot of attention and is jealous. Depends on how it plays out over the next few days and who has the most redemptive journey.

      • Jessica Hamby

        It will also be interesting to see the effect Annabel Giles has. The space is open for her to become alpha female of the camp if she plays it smart. So far the women all seem suspicious of one another. It will be interesting to see if she unifies them or becomes an additional point of contention. I don’t think she can win though. Vincente might.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Brilliant! Is Vincente in the jungle now?

          I backed him EW at 16/1 a few weeks ago. I see he is currently trading at the same price. I love the guy. If Flavia (his pro dance partner) can come across as a little bit ultra-competitive, then Vincente comes across as having the sweetest, self-deprecating, quietly funny personality.

          I think of him as being an equally funny, but sweeter and younger and much more handsome version of Steve Davis (to compare him to a competitor who is third in the betting).

          I made a mistake with my early championing of Louis Spence for CBB, as became clear as he revealed himself to be a spiteful (though sometimes v funny) bitch.

          Vincente is obviously a genuine, lovely guy, will doubtless be teaching (or trying to teach) the female celebs (and maybe the blokes) how to dance and will thus guarantee himself good airtime and attract the female voters.

          Another mistake I made with CBB was underestimating the fanbase strength of current reality TV show stars (with huge Twitter followings), a la GS’s Piss-the-Bed Charlotte…

          But I think I’ll definitely be topping up on Vincente EW.

          Did he feature on the programme tonight?

          I also note that Gino D’Acampo won this programme a few years back.

          Also, how did Matthew Wright’s Myleene impersonation play?

          (I haven’t seen any IACGMOH yet).

        • Jessica Hamby

          Matthew Wright looked like a prat. It appeared contrived and grotesque where I suspect he was looking for spontaneous and charming. MW’s problem is that although he has done well in the trials he’s faced he comes across as bitter and a bit nasty.

          Vincente featured last night. He was interesting but not as easy to like as his VT suggested. 16-1 EW sounds like a good price though and he will certainly get some sympathy for being a latecomer.

          Amy did well in her trial and if she keeps up her affable demeanour could do well. I wiuldn’t count her out on the EW market or even as a dark horse to win, given the beauty contest arguements from the previous night. If Rebecca continues to be whiny or fluffs a trial it will make Amy seem stronger and put her in a good position.

          I still like the look of Kian. He’s coming across as a very steady, decent person.

          Joey hardly featured in the show last night and imo it was better for that.

          I think the camp is waiting for a row but I’m not sure where it’s going to come from. Vincente and Annabel turning up may prove the catalyst. There’s a lot of undercurrents of resentment in there

          • Boki

            I’ve never watched the show and have no idea what are you talking about. However, did a quick look at the odds and saw Amy as a second favorite for elimination, why is that?

          • Jessica Hamby

            Miss Universe contestant who got into a bit of a spat with Becky Adlington. I think it’s too early to call elims yet. I’m not betting so I haven’t followe odds that closely. I also don’t know if it’s vote to evict or vote to save. If it’s vote to save then I think a dead wood contestant is more likely to go.

            Lalia, Alfonso and Davidaren’t getting a lot of airtime and Alfonso, sadly, is nothing like Carlton.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Hi Jessica,

            Still ain’t seen any of the programme, but am intrigued that you like Kian. I’ve been considering backing him EW just because of his age, looks, profile and amenable-seeming personality.

            Are the female celebs a likeable group? Just from reading the comments on this thread, a truly likeable jungle woman at this stage hasn’t emerged. And the first 4 in the jungle crown outright betting are blokes. The favourite in the top woman market, Rebecca at 5/4 – is she a bit of a false favourite, do you think?

            Btw, Katy Perry form the ‘Roar’ video would be idea of the winner!

          • Jessica Hamby

            Hi Guido

            I would normally think that Becky stood a good chance. She seems very genuine and emotionally honest. Very everywoman. This year, the more I read and see, the more I think the Joey Essex effect is distorting everything.

            Here’s an article from the Mirror on why Amy Willets is favourite to be first out.


            Essex is getting pimped onlots of other ITV shows, Jonathan Ross, Sunday Brunch etc. His particular brand of contrived stupidity seems to have found faviur not only with itv but with the wider media. Joey Essex is the story in print and on-line even though in the last couple of shows he has barely featured – and tonight he’s doing another trial.

            As I said in another comment there is also an “anyone but Essex” campaign but it won’t make a substantial impact until the last two or three contestants, if it has any impact at all.

            As for Kian, he’s not getting much coverage at the moment and the danger for him is that he could be seen as boring. Vincente has come in and taken the spotlight. He’s fun and flirty and everyone seems to like him.

            Annabel may be interesting. She did a couple of trials in which she totally went to pieces and screamed her head off so she has potential for a “journey”. In a normal year she’d have been put in the trial tonight but this is the year of Essex.

            Kian is a team player and would show at his best if there was an obviously obnoxious campmate he could stand up to but right now I would back Steve, Vincente and Matthew to stay longer than him. I lile him but I don’t think he’ll win. Mind you I’m not betting so please don’t take my views as in any way definitive. I’m just having fun making wild speculation.

        • Jessica Hamby

          One thing about Matthew is his lack of self awareness. I expect him to stay a while because he doesn’t apprar to know when he is being rude and short tempered. He thinks he is being perfectly reasonable when he is in fact behaving obnoxiously.

          That’s good entertainment.

  • Jessica Hamby

    I’ve noticed Joey Essex is a real Marmite contestant. He’s getting a lot of love on Twitter apparently, but he’s also getting “anyone but Joey Essex” and “I hate Joey Essex” as well.

    It will be interesting to see which side comes out on top.

  • Jessica Hamby

    It’s vote to save so the contestants with the least airtime / profile are in trouble.

    Lalia, Alfonso and David have had the least and David, apart from a possible friendship with Steve Davis, seems to have the least to offer. Still v early days though.

  • Jessica Hamby

    So to my profound disappointment Joey gets to do another trial. Obviously there is a lot of love out there for the permatanned, disingenuous doofus.

    Past winners have tended to be the most sincere and genuine so that would normally point to Becky, Amy, Steve, Vincente or Annabel. Whether that will hold true for this year or instead the Essex express cannot be derailed, only time will tell.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Apparently there’s double page spread on Joey Essex in the Sun today, his ex-fiancé says he’s a tiger in bed.

    Pass the mind bleach….

  • Jessica Hamby

    Joey Essex gets the live trial.


    I’m not sure how much more I’ll be watching this show because I’m bored to tears by Joey.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Probably my last post on this.

    Looking at past winners, the public tend to like people who are modest, genuine and kind. Joey is trying to go for that but I’m not sure he’s convincing enough. My suspicion is that, like Mark Wright from Towie a few years ago he will make it through to the final but will be pipped by the combined voting power of the “anyone but Joey” camp.

    For me, Kian is the best fit for the “modest, kind, genuine” requirements. So far he’s not shown a lot but he’s there enough to have made an impression. He also has the Westlife factor. He will already have a lot of fans. Mark Wright, also from TOWIE was beaten by Dougie Somebody from McFly – who also came across as fundamentally decent – modest, genuine and kind.

    Other possibles include Rebecca Adlington although she has had several medical exemptions from being considered for trials which will work against her and she also has the handicap of being considered a little unstable after her debate / arguement with Amy about beauty. While Becky has is genuine and modest she has not shown the same altruism and empathy that Kian has. Becky might be a good bet for top girl.

    Annabel is interesting. A strong and entertaining personality but absolutely terrified of the outside. Reality TV loves a journey. If Annabel gets the opportunity to do a trial or two (something that sadly looks unlikely – Joey is monopolising the viewer vote and in a few days the campmates will be choosing trialists and they will not choose Annabel) then she has the opportunity for a journey of redemption. She screamed like a beaten child during her first two attempts. I honestly thought she was either going to puke, faint or just explode. Sadly she didn’t do any of them. If there is a God, please give her another chance. If she makes it to the later stages of the show she is certainly in with a chance of top girl and may even sneak into the final. She is certainly modest and genuine and empathetic. However she does need to overcome her cowardy-custard nature and show a little altruism / make a kind gesture or two to really give herself a chance.

    Other than that I think the cupboard is pretty bare.

    Steve Davis is holding up in the betting but unless he has a moment – probably a row or something where he is clearly in the right – I think he’ll last a while but not to the end.

    Matthew Wright is controversial and a stirrer. Again, he’ll stay towards the end but could never win a popularity contest.

    First out? I’m moving towards David Emanuel or Lalia / Mo. Alfonso was a consideration for me but his tears and then his performance in the live trial with Joey last night, plus a hint of the Carlton dance, should see him safe for a bit.

    Vincent is proving popular with both campmates and viewers and is very entertaining and likeable but modesty is not a quality anyone could associate with him.

    Lucy doesn’t seem to feature much since her part in the beauty discussion with Amy and Becky. Unless she gets involved she could also be a candidate for early elimination.

    Amy is current favourite for first elimination due to her unpopularity with Joey’s female fans. I don’t take this seriously for the simple reason that it’s vote to save, not vote to evict, so Joey’s fans can’t get rid of her. She is coming across as smart and friendly as well as beautiful but I don’t think she has those magic three qualities in the necessary proportions to make a serious challenge. She may well last to the final week though.

    A quick footnote for people who wonder why I choose modesty, genuineness and kindness – here’s a list of recent winners and runners up.

    2012 Charley Brooks (W), Ashley Roberts (RU)
    2011 Dougie Poynter (W), Mark Wright (RU)
    2010 Stacey Solomon (W), Shaun Ryder (RU)

    I’m sure you can go back and find all sorts of arguements against everything I’ve written here but this is just my opinion and comments.

    No-one else seems very interested but I’ll keep an eye out for a few days and if anyone does reply I’ll be happy to keep talking about it. If not – sayonaraa.

    • Boki

      Hi Jessica, I’m not watching it (and never will) but I enjoyed your post since I like to place some small random blind bets on such events. David is favorite for the elimination with Amy/Laila/Lucy following with much bigger odds. Which day is the first elimination btw and what’s the duration of the vote window?

    • Heisenberg

      Hi Jessica, thanks for the report – interesting stuff. I’ve been watching from a distance and haven’t got involved until now.

      Queen of the jungle looks like a pretty level playing field and Annabel Giles has been backed throughout today down to 7/2. Ladbrokes are being slow to respond and are now the only bookie offering 7/1 which is what I have taken.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Hi guys.
    First elimination voting opens on Wednesday I think and finishes during the Thursday show (to be confirmed).

    I think Annabel Giles is a solid choice. Becky Adlington has been exempt from three trials because of her asthma and that has made her unpopular with some viewers. She has also been in 3 disputes now – with Amy about beauty contests, with Alfonso about washing up and with Matthew about tasks around the camp. Matthew ended up pointing his finger in her face and shouting. That final one seems to have divided people, with more being sympathetic to her than not. Regardless, to have one arguement may be considered a misfortune – to have three begins to look like carelessness.

    Interestingly she was also last to be picked when the camp was divided into teams for a challenge. An gold medal winning Olympian, last to be picked for a competitive challenge!!!! That suggests to me that she is not particularly popular with her campmates.

    Kian was voted by the public to do the next trial. Sadly it’s football tonight so we won’t get to see it until tomorrow. I think it’s a good for him to get one under his belt. Assuming he doesn’t turn into a screaming Jesse it can only do him good. Also, after Wednesday the public will be voting for eliminations and the campmates will be deciding who to send for the trials. This can often be a cause of conflict. Some campmates want to get the screentime but others want to send people they think will bring them food. If Kian has just done one then he will be able to gracefully bow out of that for a few days.

    Matthew’s role is clearly that of villain and he’s playing it well. I think Lucy Pargeter of Emmerdale was set up to be the female villain but that role may end up going to Becky Adlington. Lucy certainly isn’t doing it although her part in the beauty debate may have influenced some people agin her.

    David actually had a good edit and a lot of screen time yesterday. His team sucked rotten fruit and offal out of cocktail glasses faster than their opponents (I honestly don’t know why they stopped us from paying a penny to see the lunatics in Bedlam) and he came across well. He also had Vincente trying to teach him the foxtrot. Will that be enough to save him? I don’t know.

    I do think Lucy has been short on screen time and I don’t think she will be around very long unless she gets a bit more of it.

    As I said in a post above I think Amy’s status as one of the faviourites to get evicted is due at least in part to Joey’s fans but as it is vote to save rather than vote to evict I think she is safe for the time being.

    I don’t really know who Lalia’s demographic is. She has come out of her shell a lot since Vincente arrived though. He would flirt with a hole in the ground and he’s certainly put a smile on her face.

    Vincente walks around in his pants a lot and preens himself like a comedy sex god. I find myself wondering how long it will stay amusing but it’s certainly workiing for now. In a year without Joey I could see him as a candidate for top two.

    I’ve not seen anything yet to change my view of Kian and Joey as the two finalists.

    Steve Davis probably had the least screen time last night. I can’t remember anything particularly significant that he did or said.

    One thing that’s made this series a bit of a slow burn is that they’ve not really gone hungry so they’re not too irritable. That’s why Becky’s disagreements stand out. It’s a lot easier to predict public likes and dislikes when there are rows and (though I feel dirty when I say it) they can be very entertaining to watch.

  • Jessica Hamby

    ***NOTE TO THE MODS***

    Can this thread be pushed up the board so it doesn’t fall off the front page?

    • Hi Jessica, Good question, not sure how to do that – WordPress automatically orders all posts by date, there’s no obvious way to change the order.

      As a quick fix, if you click on “Strictly” in that block of colour under Daniel’s photo at the top of the page, it brings this thread (as it’s tagged with Strictly) up to the top.

      Not ideal, I know. Will look into finding a better solution.

      • Heisenberg

        Hi Andrew,

        Go to Plugins/Add New and search for ‘Intuitive Custom Post Order’ – this allows you to drag and drop posts in the list in any order you need. New posts will still default to the top as the most recent.

        Alternatively, in a post’s edit screen click the ‘edit’ button next to where it says ‘Visibilty: Public’ and tick the box that says ‘stick this post to the front page’ (http://goo.gl/PVKoZq).

  • Jessica Hamby

    Correction: Rebecca’s exemption from some trials is due to claustrophobia, not asthma.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Kian takes 9 stars out of 9 in the challenge then wins the challenge to go to a spa..

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Funny old Strictly markets this weekend.

    Mark looks a cast-iron certainty to B2 yet again, but the TP of 1/8 doesn’t lure my fancy.

    Who’s down their to keep him company?
    Well, the key is what strategy SCD are employing for this week.
    It might be seen as the last perfect opportunity to bounce someone. Candidates would include Patrick, Natalie, Sophie and Abbey (probably in that order of preference and need).

    Patrick could be a strong candidate for B2, as much as he could be argued to be one for highest scorer!

    The 20/1 for Ashley for elimination is tempting but surely to dance heaven they wouldn’t keep Mark over Ashley! I just couldn’t see the justification.

    Personally, I think Ashley will be steered away from B2 this week (yet not marked higher than Patrick) and will be eliminated next week. I could see that…

    Plus, I think some of Ben’s vote will have migrated to support for Ashley this week, making him a harder target for now.

    Given Natalie seems to be highest or co-highest scorer every week she dances, I am not tempted by the 12s for her to B2 (although it’s not impossible).

    I think I’ll keep my powder dry until next week.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Eventually, took the 20/1 for Ashley to be eliminated. Still can’t see it panning out, as SCD would be eroding their credibility, but perhaps SCD feel they can’t afford to wait.

      Also had a nibble at the 20s for Ashley in the lowest score market, in case they follow the same strategy as last week and mark him lower than Mark – meaning I’ve a 20/1 winner, even if public support boosts him clear of B2.

  • AlisonR

    Mark has to go now I think as I can’t see anyone now who would dance worse than him in a dance off. Sophie is the next weakest dancer left so I expect it to be her as the public have generally been voting with the scores the last couple of weeks.
    I do think Ashley could make the final. 15/2 for an Ashley win seems better value to me than Sophie at 5/1.

  • AlisonR

    Just as interesting is the “next permanent presenter” market. Beyond Claudia Winkleman (doesn’t she count as a permanent presenter already as she does the results show?), Anton Du Beke is maybe an obvious candidate (6/1 looks good value) but Matt Baker at 16/1 also looks a great shout.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Kian and Joey are voted to be “camp saviours”. Kian also has an arguelent with Matthew in which even Ant & Dec are on Kian’s side. Kian is picking up fans betond his Wedtlife base. I see nothing to change my mind about Kian as winner and Joey as runner up.

    Top girl is an interesting one. Becca won’t win it but Lucy took 10 stars today, Amy is having a feud with Lucy that makes them both unsympathetic and Annabel is coming over wishy-washy. I wonder if Lalia, who is quiet but a strong character, might sneak up on the inside.

    Another interesting question is who will be third. Villans often make third or fourth so Matthew is up there, Alfonso is brewing up for a tantrum with Matthew and one of the girls may sneak in just for gebder balance.

    I’m not seeing much from any of the others. David is sweet but inconsequential. Steve is, oh dear, boring. Vincente is a flirt but a lightweight.

  • Travis Baines

    Regardless of the footage, it’s easy to underestimate the voting power of Joey Essex’s fan-base. Come the finale some of these kids will have voted in excess of 50 times for their guy. My belief in the popularity of these reality stars served me well in the CBB just gone where I backed Charlotte and I believe Joey will appeal a lot more to the general public than the ‘Geordie slag’. The movement of odds after tonight’s episode do seem to point to a 2 horse race between Joey and Kian.

    • Andy

      On the flip side to Joey Essex fan base is the fan base of westlife, 50 million records sold world wide, 26 top 10 singles over a 14 year period. Kian coming across as a genuine, honest, educated gentleman and viewers will adore him, I think we also need to take into account that CBB gets a audience of around 2 million where as IACGMOOH gets around 10 million,
      IAC viewers will be more mature than CBB and Kian likely to appeal to the majority.
      I expect the pair to go head to head in the final but my money is down on Kian. it could be very close.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Joey does nothing in the camp if he’s not doing a trial. He’s non-entity. Kian engages with people and is the only one who stood up to Matthew which has earned him a lot of respect.

    As I posted in an earlier comment, there is also a quite strong “anyone but Essex” feeling among some people. That won’t matter much for now but when it gets to the final two it will matter. Look back to the year Mark Wright of TOWIE was in it. He also sailed through to the final and was beaten by Dougie Poynter of McFly, all round decent, modest and personable guy.

    As Andy points out, the audience for IAC is different from the audience for CBB. If I were a betting I would be laying Joey.

  • Jessica Hamby

    A thought on top girl. Rebecca Adlington is doing a trial tonight. It’s a swimming-based trial. If she does well it could push her back into contention for that, depending on the effect it has on her morale. Right now I think Lucy and Amy are in pole position. Annabel talks a good game but she’s terrified of the jungle critters and not as strong as she at first appeared. Lucy took 10 stars in her trial and I got the impressions the critters were scared of her.

    Rebecca will need to get more positive air time in camp to get back into contention but this might help. Of course if she mucks it up then it’ll be pretty much all over for her in terms of being a competitor.

  • Andy

    So Joey claims he cannot tell the time and has never learned how to blow his nose, yet the lad has a great memory in the latest trial when he had to remember 25 items
    he remembers 22.
    You must have a certain level of intelligence to be able to do
    this so how has he never learned to tell the time ?????
    Possible porky’s I feel.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Oh Joey’s clearly chock full of shit. People seem to like it though. They want to believe it. He has some quite ugly microexpressions though. He shows a distinct smugness, arrogance and even contempt sometimes, just for split seconds, when he’s doing his act. You can see it particularly in his eyes and the skin around them. Totally contradicting the things coming out of his mouth.

    It’s his act I suppose, just like Matthew’s is to be contrary and argumentative and Amy’s is to be a sweet, helpess, feak and weeble woman who needs to be rescued and looked after.

    Having said that, it appears to be working for her. I think she’s now in with a good shout of top girl because the other women do appear to be bullying her and she’s dealing with it with dignity.

    • Gamblebot

      I agree with Joey just playing the “dumb act.” I remember reading an interview of him (in GQ’s special style issue thing, I think) where he gave answers that were not “idiot material.”

      That said, I don’t know much about the show, but I can’t see him winning. People have probably made up their mind with him at this stage.

  • I don’t really buy into this ‘anyone but Joey’ logic when there are people in the camp actively being nasty versus Joey’s far less condemnable playing dumb. Besides, which celebrities in there other than Matthew and Mo aren’t playing up to certain roles.

    • jessica Hamby

      As ai said above, anyone but Joey isn’t going to be significant untol the final. By then the bitchy / unpopular contestants will have left.

  • stoney

    Good to see joey shortening and kian easing out at last, I think Joey is starting to win some of the anti-joey brigade over and I would imagine itv will help that happen even more over the next week or so

  • Travis Baines

    There are chimpanzees which have superhuman memory skills but which can’t tell the time. Different parts of the brain ya see. I bet they understand the mechanics of blowing their nose though… :p

  • jessica Hamby

    First eviction tonight.

    I think Lucy, Annabel, Alfonso or Steve are most likely with the girls in pole because of their bitching.

    Camp seems to be going bonkers with bitching as a few of the older people seem to be going mad. What a thoroughly nasty bunch they appear to be.

  • jessica Hamby

    So it’s between Lucy, Annabel, Amy, Kian, Joey, Steve and Alfonso.

    Steve has probably had leasr airtime but should have a solid following from his snooker days.

    Alfonso has had more airtime but is not well known as Alfonso, only as Fresh Prince Carlton.

    Annabel has been nastily bitchy but turned to jelly during tonight’s trial which may provoke sympathy or amusement.

    Lucy has been a bitch and not much airtime otherwise so imo she is the person who has least motivated voters, but we’ll find out in 45 minutes.

  • jessica Hamby

    Annabel is the first out.

    • Boki

      Well, it seems I earned a tenner there lol. Annabel was the last one I added just for cover, total mess of a bet, the market was extremely volatile and I’m not doing it anymore – you really need to follow the show closely.

      • jessica Hamby

        Agreed. And because contestants have reputations and fans before the show starts it’s still not enough. What happens on the show is not the only factor. I don’t watch Emmerdale and I don’t have any idea whether Lucy Pargeter is popular or not, for example. Matthew Wright has a morning show on Channel 5 that looks to me like it’s made for morons. It’s not going to have a big audience but are they loyal? Do they vote? These are just two examples of people I don’t know about. I certainly don’t know what the voters think of them. I think I’m just going to watch it from now on and give up speculating.

  • Chatterbox5200

    Nice result for me tonight. 25/1 for Laila to go seemed way too high for someone that had openly admitted that she wanted to go (and didn’t want immunity), considering the public vote for who they want to stay.

  • Andy

    Joey will be winning the vote in these early rounds but as contestants are eliminated their votes will surely go to Kian.
    I don’t anyone who votes for Steve Davis transferring their votes to Joey, same goes for Vincent, David, Rebecca etc, etc etc.

  • Chatterbox5200

    Is it just coincidence that 3 out of the first 4 contestants eliminated have been accused of bullying Amy? (I don’t watch it religiously, so I’m not sure if Vincent was also involved in any way).

    Does this mean that Lucy is due to be the next out?

  • There may be some truth to that to be fair, though you vote to save not to eliminate.

    Vincent didn’t get involved at all from what I saw.

    I see Al getting the boot tonight as he did the Carlton dance yesterday meaning we’ve seen what we wanted to see from him.

  • stoney

    I’ve had a punt on Steve davis at 10’s shortening fast

  • stoney

    I thought itv would be all over that to help king joey

  • Travis Baines

    Also thoughts on the W/O Joey Essex market with David @ 7s?

  • stoney

    Nothing is gonna stop joey glad I got in early with him

  • stoney

    I take it a few people have jumped on the Rebecca tip. 4/1 now with ladbrokes

  • Travis Baines

    Do they still honour the bet if its a double departure?

    • stoney

      Hmmm still waiting to find out. The bet is next eviction and seeing as they were both evicted at the same time I would expect to get half odds. The bookies decide this sort of thing as they go along. Won’t be Suprised if I get sod all on the basis that alfonso finished lower

  • stoney

    1 bookie has just paid out on half odds waiting on the other

  • Travis Baines

    IMO they should announce one and then the other. That way you know where they both placed and there’s no mixups with the bookies.

  • Travis Baines

    Either way congrats on another good call with Rebecca

  • stoney

    Yeh I agree. I would have been fuming if rebecca was lower placed and I lost half my odds Lol. Lucy goes tomorrow no 2 ways about it

  • Andy

    When the celebs sat down Dek said
    Alfonzo you finished in 7th place.
    I took Bet Fred’s 7/2 so hope they settle as a winner.

  • Andy

    Settled as a winner.
    Calling himself the most popular celeb last night was his downfall.
    In the outright market I have Kian at 8/1, 5/1, 4/1, 11/4, & 5/2.
    He has the Irish vote, the Westlife vote, the anti Joey vote and the common sense vote and that should out poll the Towie vote and the kiddy vote. Hopefully.

  • jessica Hamby

    I think Amy goes tomorrow.

    • jessica Hamby

      I’d prefer it to be Lucy though. What kind of person travels half way actoss the world for a once in a lifetime experience in the Australian rainforest and the spends her time complaining about who did or didn’t wash the dishes?

    • Amy’s twitter traffic has been going mental the last few nights, with more mentions that Joey and Kian. I think she stays.

  • stoney

    With no sign of my ladbrokes bet being settled as of 7 oclock this morning I was fearing the worst. I checked just now and to my amazement they have paid out my full bet on rebecca going last night. Perfect start to the weekend

    • Heisenberg

      Good old Ladbrokes. Almost as generous as Hills paying out on both Denise and Kimberley as Top Woman after last year’s Strictly when 2nd/3rd position wasn’t announced.

      Speaking of Ladbrokes – my Oscars bet from August just became a very interesting back to lay proposition (now 5/1) – every cloud…


  • Jessica Hamby

    Good. I’d prefer if she stayed.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Apparently Lucy’s been getting the dog’s abuse on Twitter up to and including death threats.

    Social media really does bring out the worst kind of Billy Bullshit doesn’t it?

  • Travis Baines

    Joey’s odds drifting, Kian’s odds shortening. GULP. Interestingly Joey is less popular on twitter in terms of #TeamJoey/#JoeyToWin/#JoeyOfTheJungle tweets VS #TeamKian/KianToWin tweets…

  • Chatterbox5200

    I think Kian has shown himself to be incredible self-less and more concerned about the welfare of his colleagues – especially in the latest Bushtucker Trial, when he looked like Superman dragging Amy and Lucy to their positions. Then add to that, how he reacted at not receiving his phone call, when he has made it clear how much he is missing his wife. Listening to the latest evictees yesterday, they both said that they wanted Kian to win, and how much it would mean to him.

    • Travis Baines

      It would be pretty rich if Kian reacted badly to not getting his call considering he saw his wife halfway through.

      I’m pretty nervous about my Joey bets now though. Dipped as low as 4/11 and I was laughing but now I feel like the momentum has shifted to Kian. Don’t really wan’t to hedge on him at even money though…

  • Chatterbox5200

    Joey’s out!! I’m sure that shocked a LOT of people.

  • jessica Hamby

    Hate to say I told you so but I did suggest y’all lay Joey weeks ago and that Amy was going tonight.


  • jessica Hamby

    Well… a week ago maybe.

  • stoney

    Joey was still available at 66 minutes before eviction. No one saw that coming

  • Stevie4

    Ah well, true to form, the favourite never wins on this show. Glad I layed Joey

  • Travis Baines

    I think for his contribution to camp Joey deserved a top 3 finish. Oh well. Sort of want David to win now as a fan though I’ll be cheering for Kian for the sake of your guy’s bank balances.

    • jessica Hamby

      I don’t see how his cobtribution was any greater than anyone else’s.

      I’m surprised Lucy best Amy. It’s a reality show, not real life. I don’t get the fuss about “contraband” unless Lucy is jealous of the attention Amy gets. I must admit I didn’t like Lucy at all. She seems like the sort of woman who thinks the world will end if she isn’t there to boss it about.

    • Andy

      Thanks for the support Travis.
      Joey’s exit was a major shock for me also.
      I did consider putting a saver on him due to the weakness in his price yesterday as I was sure he would make the final.
      David is the obvious danger but at 6/1 on betfair the saver is painless.

      • Andy

        Email from San James telling me my account has been closed due to betting patterns.
        Phoned to ask why and was informed its because I only gamble on reality and because I am pretty savvy.
        I have taken £3k off them since I opened the account in 2001.
        Thank heaven for betfair.

        • stoney

          lol, im pretty much limited to small bets with most bookies now, sky bet is terrible, i struggle to get 10 pound on with them

          • Heisenberg

            Me too with Paddy Power – after years of successful Oscar, Golden Globe and SAG awards betting my bet limits are now comical. Last time I tried it was some randomly low amount like £2.69 for odds of 10/1.

            You said it Andy – spineless!

  • Andy

    They are getting worse Stoney, Only Ladbrokes will accept a decent stake from me now
    pathetic limits from most and SJ is now the 3rd to close my account after Boyle and VC.

    • stoney

      cant you go in store to place bigger bets? makes you laugh there happy too take everyones money down to the last penny if they have too without a worry about if a man is going to starve, yet when they start losing a bit too much to someone that restrict his odds. Robbing Cnuts in my opinion

  • Andy

    I can and will visit shops Stoney, There are new ones opening up everywhere in the West Midlands where I live. I did visit one of their shops earlier this year to put a Richard and Adam in BGT but was restricted to £20. Thankfully.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Will be ecstatic if Ashley is eliminated from Strictly tonight. Have backed him for elimination tonight. But that’s nothing compared to the top male bets I have on Patrick.

    Ashley eliminated tonight is the dream result for me.

    Sofabet community – pray for Guildo!

    • stoney

      Lol i desperately need the opposite tonight, after last nights shock im a celebrity. Im hoping ashley benefits from the rebound vote, his dance looks to be better suited than patricks. The bookies cant seperate them for next eviction, its very close for top male too.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Ashley as top male does provide a not awful return for me, and I have considered backing Ashley for top male again – but thought ‘sod it’, I fancy Ashley to go tonight, he’s a bit of value at the price and I’ll continue to hitch my star to Patrick.

        You think your desperate need is more desperate than my desperate need.

        Wanna bet?! 🙂

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Pray for Guildo; not for stoney!

        • stoney

          I have nothing left to bet with 🙁 if ashley and nicholas both go out this weekend it will be my worst nightmare, if they both go through however ill be a very happy and relieved man. My family could be unwrapping apples and oranges this christmas haha

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            But my family could be unwrapping pips and rind 🙁

            Have had a nibble at Natalie for B2 at 5s.

            Best result for me is a B2 of Natalie and Ashley, with Ashley getting the boot.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            And have added a little saver on Susanna at 10/1 to be eliminated.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            And a dab at the 3s for her to B2.

        • Andy

          I’m in at 5/1 on Natalie bottom 2.
          seems a value bet at this stage.
          Leaving XF alone until we know if there is a sing off or not.

  • stoney

    hmmm lets hope they are as critical with the others as they were for ashley, isee him doing well on the phone vote for that dance though

  • stoney

    ooooh your natalie shout could be good

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Was there a bit of reverse psychology going on there with the verbal assault on Nat and Artem? Were they trying to build a bit of sympathy for the smug one?

      Have to laugh that after all that they still marked her the same as Ashley! Listening to the comments alone you would have thought Natalie would have been scoring 31 or 32.

  • stoney

    thats a disgrace, guildo your in poll position due to strctlys biased scoring

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Susanna’s dancing has really improved all season,come to think of it. 32 was a slight under-mark, but near enough.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Abbey’s top at the moment but that was a weird undermark of a 37. It was like they’re leaving room for last-up Sophie and Brendan to come over the top, maybe?

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Strangely, I was bored by the performance. Sophie just wasn’t crisp enough with her movements. Her head snap wasn’t there, for instance. Same areas for improvement as usual.

      What odds Ashley is out first or second in the Swingathon?

  • stoney

    a full score of 10’s no doubt

  • stoney

    wow, could be a shock tonight

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Sophie could be polling very highly, to be given that score.

      • stoney

        yeah i read somewhere that she is polling the most week in week out, oh well ashley is in big danger now

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Although that was a stitch-up of Ashley, it’s also true that his was probably the dance of the night. The public might save him yet.

          And has Susanna been thrown under the bus, tonight?

          It looks like SCD would be happy to lose both Ashley and Susanna.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Yes! Second out! Love it!

  • stoney

    Patrick polling lowest on DS by far, is his positionon the leaderboard enough to stop him being dragged into the bottom 2?

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Just been checking there myself – sense of doom is settling in…

      Preparing to wave farewell to my 18/1…


      • stoney

        how strong does the leader board stand up against the phone vote? just shows how manipulated the show is, lucky for you cos hed be a dead cert to go if he scored low tonight

  • jessica Hamby

    I still think Kian wins but I don’t know who goes tonight from David and Lucy.

  • stoney

    Ashley out against patrick in the dance of, well done guildo, disgusting decision, will forever hold this programme in the same light as the x factor now, my first and last involvement in watching/betting on it

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Sorry, stoney.

      Ashley second off in the fix-a-thon was nearly as blatant a pre-ordained and unmerited decision as Patrick second left standing (almost literally).

      (Will celebrate elsewhere on another post).

      • stoney

        You got lucky with the manipulation, he was top of the leader board yet bottom of the public vote, thats the way the cookie crumbles mate, in these shows its never about the best singer or the dancer, its getting the luck with TPTB’s decisions, im big enough to take it on the chin, all i need now is nick to go out tomorrow night and thats oranges all round!

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          The manipulation’s been more and more evident as the season progressed.

          I was worried about Patrick landing in the dance off with Abbey or Natalie.

          Against Ashley, Patrick was a virtual certainty to stay.

          That 1 point higher scoring from the judges for Patrick over Ashley got the judges’ justification in early and yet again signalled their intent.

          There’s a post of mine on this site (on the previous Strictly thread) dated October 28th, where I discuss the very scenario of Patrick versus and Ashley in a dance off – and predict the outcome and give the reasoning behind it.

          That was the time I took the 18s for Pat to be top male.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Thank God Lucy’s out. How nobody threw her in the dunny I will never know. That bloody corncrake voice makes me grit my teeth every time I hear it.

    Can’t bloody stand her.

  • Jessica Hamby

    The I’m A Celebrity result is imminent, gor those of you who had a punt…..

  • Jessica Hamby

    And it’s Kian.

    *smug grin*

    Well done to everyone who got on him or laid Joey.

  • Jessica Hamby

    No one got any good news from I’m A Celebrity?

    Surely someone got Kian…..

    • Chatterbox5200

      I backed Kian at the start, and topped up throughout the series, especially after the Celebrity Cyclone task. Nowhere near the winnings of some of the others on here though.

  • Andy

    I was on right from the start Jessica.
    I did a little bit of pimping but didn’t want to shout loud because i gave a loser out at the mercury awards and was worried i might do the same again.
    I guess Ladbrokes will ban me after this.
    3.5 k profit.
    I also took a loss on Luke but less than 4 figures so all in all had a great weekend.
    I would like to thank you for keeping the IAC thread going when no one seemed interested. Hats off to you.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Thanks – and well done. I wish I had the courage of my convictions and put some pennies on. I only discovered this site a few weeks ago, at the beginning of X-Factor live shows, and I decided to only bet imaginary money.

    Right now my X-Factor profits would have been hurt by Luke but my IAC book would be looking quite healthy. I think I’ll start playing with a little real money next year and see how I go. I’ve learned a lot from imaginary play.

  • Heisenberg

    11 weeks to Oscar.

    Keep an eye on the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) nominations announced later today. If Leonardo DiCaprio is shortlisted in best actor for ‘Wolf of Wall Street’ then the 25/1 for winning the Oscar looks big. The Golden Globe nominations will follow tomorrow where he is a lock to be nominated (and a favourite to win) in the best actor musical/comedy category.

    Although there is currently a review embargo on the film, early reaction is overwhelmingly positive with all the talk focusing on a ‘career best’ performance for DiCaprio. He’s also overdue some Oscar recognition after missing out several times over the years, notably last year for ‘Django Unchained’.

    I snapped up the 33/1 available 2 weeks ago.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Heisenberg,

      Best to grab any value going in any market before the “Golden Age” of novelty market value betting is finished.

      Here’s an ahead-of-the-curve, ahead-of-it’s time, iconic sofabet thread from 2010:


      It received 3 comments (and counting…)!

      This was back in the day when most betting shop punters still considered backing on reality TV as unmanly (if they even knew it existed)!

      I think it was Chris Bells and I who a few months ago had a discussion about the internet and it’s tipping services, about how the internet is like a giant value mining machine that goes from one unexploited field to the next, sucking the value out of any market.

      Tourism destroys tourism is the obvious analogy.

      I remember when money could be made on 1st round leader betting in golf; man of the match awards in football; and when X Factor value was a lot easier to find then it is now.

      Horse Racing is analysed to within an inch of it’s life and (with two or three exceptions) there has long been virtually no value left to be had in backing the ponies.

      I wasn’t able to commit the time to following this year’s I’m a Celebrity, but I noticed a number of sofabet commentators were savvy enough to grab some amazing value, some great winners.

      Next year will be harder, the year after that will be harder yet etc.

      The ever-excellent Rob tipped Greece to win semi-final 1 at ESC 2011 at 50-1. I doubt in future ESC markets if a country with a similar chance to what Greece had will be priced up at 50/1. Think 10/1 to 16/1.

      There’s value to be had in tennis…but that’s been made harder by that the tennis tipster in the Racing Post. I remember going to the bookies one morning to pop a tenner on the yummy Elena Vesnina to win Eastbourne. I could only get 66s though. Had a glance at the Post and saw that their said tipster fancied her for the outright as well. He’d moved the market. The incredible Steve Palmer has an enormous effect on the golf outrights each Wednesday. Anyway, Elena won Eastbourne, returning me £670…but it still feels to me like I lost out on an extra £140. I should have had an 80/1 winner, returning me £810.

      Looking at the proliferation of reality market tipsters springing up on the net, I predict that in about 4 years time betting on novelty markets won’t be worth the investment of time, as the days of they’re being relatively easy value bets to be had will be a distant memory.

      So yes, everybody should fill their boots while they still can.

      Btw, Chris Bells – was it you and I, on this site, who had that discussion about the internet and it’s effect on obtaining value? I recall it took place sometime during Big Brother, but I’ve found it difficult to track down.

    • Heisenberg

      Guildo, agreed – awards markets (for me that’s film/tv awards) remain possibly one of the last areas of true value, in that a well researched prospect can position you several steps ahead of the bookies who are notoriously slow to react to precursor awards results. I remember the year Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) won the DGA (always a very reliable indicator of Best Director Oscar hopes) which was a genuine shock because everyone thought David Fincher (The Social Network) had it in the bag. I checked Ladbrokes the following morning and they still had Hooper available at 12/1 for the Best Director Oscar – needless to say I snapped it up and he did indeed go on to win.

      Good news in the just announced Golden Globe nominations – Leonardo DiCaprio nominated puts him firmly back in the race and best of all, Idris Elba nominated for Mandela – awesome! Go on, let me show it off again: http://goo.gl/NATYgw

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        A thought for you, Heisenberg.

        I know that we have at least one bookmaker reality market trader / oddsmaker who is a regular commentator on this site. It seems a fair guess that there are an increasing number of lurkers on this sites and the many others sites who are also going to be bookmaker novelty market traders / oddsmakers.

        I’m sure they’ll be delighted to read about the Hooper winnings and will be really pleased for you over the very generous odds you received from them for your Mandela bet.

        They’ll be similarly delighted to read that they are ‘notoriously slow’ and that punters are ‘several steps ahead’.

        Add to this, the number of people reading your advice who will be now be joining in and also ensuring that any value to be had will become a thing of the past in the not-too-distant future.

        But where will we all head next? Where will be the next value area to mine out of existence? The day will come when there’s nowt left.

        I mentioned about Steve Palmer, the well-known golf tipster in the Racing Post. Most golf tournaments start on a Thursday. Typically, his golf tips are featured in Wednesday’s post.

        You will often find him mentioning in passing that there were bigger prices available for his selections earlier in the week; and / or mentioning that he considered such and such a player for selection but decided against (by Wednesday) because the value prices had “gone” earlier in the week.

        What’s happening is this: there are umpteen very savvy golf tipster sites that have popped up over the last few years. These sites are increasing in traffic, and their tipsters outline their selections on Monday and Tuesday for the coming Thursday tourneys. Internet sites competing with each other to increase traffic, increase advertising revenue, give reason to their punter readers to use the “donate” button featured on their site’s home page. All these sites becoming ever more sophisticated in their analyses and fighting to give the very best value tips.

        There used to be easy value to be had in golf betting, but it’s rapidly disappearing.

        The same will inevitably happen with novelty market value. The rapidly increasing number of novelty betting sites will direct their punting readers to value areas, to value tips. You will soon be punting in fiercely competitive and heavily analysed novelty markets where the value will be squeezed and squeezed until there’s virtually none left.

        When I take a trip down to my local bookmakers I’m delighted that the majority of the punters laugh at me when I ask for the odds on a market for Strictly.

        Long may it continue!

        Long may it continue that they continue to race to the counters to put their greyhound bets on, study the horse-racing form, and play roulette on the Fixed Odds Betting Terminals.

        The day they start beating me to the counter to put bets on reality and novelty markets, I’ll brace myself for the coming ever-diminishing returns.

        As a side note: if it wasn’t for the FOBT players most of the bookmakers shops would be closed down, as financially unviable.

        If and when the internet bookmakers start limiting my novelty market stakes and closing down my accounts, I’ll be making more frequent trips to local shops.

        But only if they’re there, of course.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          ,,,and only if there’s any value bets left to be had.

        • I don’t share your concern for more punters betting on novelties Guildo – you won’t suddenly find lots of shrewd bettors (of which there are a very small population anyway – I’d wager that a lot of people on here are losing punters [not that there is anything wrong with that whatsoever, just to be clear], and the same will go for the majority of new tipping sites that might pop up, they won’t necessarily be run by smart people) suddenly taking an interest in these markets – they already have a long time ago or will have decided that it’s not something that interests them. If anything, there is a higher percentage of informed punters betting on novelties, but the overall stakes are far lower than any other mainstream sports so there’s less overall exposure. Case in point, a £10 bet on Elba at 100/1, which looking now (without knowing the situation at the time it was placed), is a great bet. But whilst its probably significant to Heisenberg, what’s £1k to Ladbrokes?

          You might not be able to find value on racing, but there are other people that do. Anywhere that is at all opinion based, or requires different interpretation of limited data, will always offer value opportunities. The biggest threat to profitable novelty betting is if voting figures start to get released during each series!

          The hardest thing about betting novelty markets is getting the money down without moving the price and the more overall volume there is, the easier that becomes. Of course, it becomes harder if you are the type of punter who either just wants to find ricks and have a tenner on them or who wants to be first in and take £50 at an obviously wrong price when the market first goes up with 1 bookmaker, but if you’re happy to wait for a market to form incorrectly and then get to work based on your opinion, it’s not a bad thing (please don’t suggest Betfair as a solution either, only on outrights are there ever reasonable volumes, until things like XF singoffs, and that’s only if you want to take under the true price). I would love those type of punters to start betting on this – but ideally they wouldn’t find tips in the comments on sites like this!

          I wouldn’t be tipping up any selections until I’d backed them myself , at which point if you tip them up and have people follow, you can contract the price and then open up value on other selections in the market or offer yourself the chance to hedge, if that’s your plan. Posting your logic behind it when it could repeat in future (for example, check the nominations for event W, and if X, bet on Y for event Z) is what shuts down future opportunities, not tipping up a selection when the cash is already down, when you should no longer care about value as you don’t want to bet on it any more.

          The only downside is that the higher volumes go, the more traders who are dedicated to novelties there will be, so they will have more time to spend on markets.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Luke,

    Thanks for engaging with me.

    I don’t think Ladbrokes imagine £1,000 is small change – as they’re a business. There’s no value for them in casually overpricing selections and markets. They want the business of punters who lose, not win. And yes, as the markets grow, the bookies will build up their trading teams (as you say) on these markets, meaning less errors, less value.

    From reading the comments on this site and others, there are a number of novelty punters who find it difficult “to get on” with various bookmakers. I think Heisenberg himself mentioned that one bookmaker has limited his stakes to piddling amounts.

    I agree that there is value to be found in horse-racing. But it’s one of the hardest areas in which to find it. You can be up against potentially hundreds of thousands (?) of other bettors and hundreds of vastly experienced oddsmakers; it’s a betting area subject to mountain chains of analysis. You need to find an edge that other’s haven’t. It’s difficult, comparatively speaking. And once you do spot the value, by golly do you have to be quick to snap it up.

    Years ago, I remember looking at a table of the profit/loss of newspaper horse racing tipster “experts” selections. The vast majority of the tipsters were losing, some really badly. I suspect that the vast majority of horse racing punters also lose.

    If there was an equivalent novelty market tipster expert table, I would speculate that the majority would be in profit. Look at Daniel, the co-founder of this site. He’s one of the ‘former editors of the Racing & Football Outlook’ (click on the ‘about us – meet the team’ tab) Yet, he doesn’t pass on horse-racing or football tips in the off-topic sections. He makes his living ‘betting six-figure sums on Eurovision’. I would infer that this is obviously the (type of) area where he is able to find value, find an edge. Yet, he must have had a wonderful knowledge base re horse racing and / or football?

    Very good point, I think, about ‘posting your logic behind it’ -or not. Inevitably, irresistibly, people do. It’s almost impossible not to. If the winner hits, you’ve proved it wasn’t a fluke!

    The day that it becomes as hard to find value in novelty markets as it does horse racing or other highly analysed betting markets might be the day that the profit does not justify the time investment.

    Obviously, this is just my personal view.

    • Chris Bellis

      As I’ve said before, my bookie relative made money on horse racing due to highly intelligent betting and laying, and being aware that the industry is largely bent. He never shared his views on the internet, as potentially that would make a dent in his profits, for obvious reasons. Most races are on small courses where it is easy for a knowledgeable person to piggy back on some scam or other perpetrated by owners and jockeys. The nice thing about novelty betting is that you can subvert this. Overall, I’m a winner, but not by much, due to misjudging how bent Eurovision was. I somehow thought it would rise above corruption and bribery as it was such a big event with a massive audience. I was wrong.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Here’s a link to the voting figures for I’m A Celebrity. As soon as the vote to save started (as opposed to voting for who did the trials) Kian was ahead of Joey and remained so for every vote. The only surprise was Amy who was top of the vote to save for the first two votes due to the bullying attitudes of the other women. If she had not been so self-centred she could have caused an upset.


  • Guildo Horn Forever

    My early bet on Strictly this week was on Natalie to B2 at 9/4.

    Am happy with that, but am sensing there’s bigger value to be had in the 8s for Sophie to be eliminated.

    It’s a big if, but IF she finds herself in the B2 dance-off against Patrick, I wouldn’t be too surprised if she was soon after waving her goodbyes to Strictly.

    I also think she would also be very likely to be sent home against judges’ pet project Abbey, or pro-in-all-but-name Natalie.

    BBC girl Susanna has probably massive support and is likely to be dancing better this Saturday than her frankly rubbish efforts over the last couple of weeks. Wouldn’t expect to see her in a dance-off and think she again would be someone who would survive against Sophie.

    Considered the 2/9 for Patrick to B2 (as it looks an absolute certainty) but the price didn’t tickle my fancy.

    So, I reckon Natalie is most likely to B2 with Paddy; and Sophie the most likely tonot survive a dance-off with Paddy.

    So, I’m hoping for one or both of:
    Natalie B2 (currently TP of 5/2).
    Sophie to be eliminated at a widely available 8/1.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Have added Natalie at 14s for elim.

      Craig fired a to-the-bone criticism at her last week. That use of the phrase ‘too slick’ to describe her dancing felt cutting, developing a wound that can be reopened as and when required. There’s no chemistry between her and Artem (as hinted at by Len, and arguably by Artem’s choreography).

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Been doing extra thinking around the SCD elimination markets and have come up with some more angles.
        Probably a few months ago now, on this site, I posted this link:


        …and wrongly concluded from it that Patrick might be earmarked for only a limited run in BBC’s Strictly season this year. As I watched my initial fancy Ash’s blatant under-marking,I realised the error of my ways.

        In fact, this background story might have been another reason why Patrick, a 50 year old black man,had to be saved over the dashing, white early 30s Ashley. Yes? Patrick has no grounds for discrimination now, does he?
        A month ago or so, a commentator on this site pointed out that the right-on BBC might like a black contestant in their SCD final.

        Well, there’s Patrick and there’s mixed-race Natalie who both provide the gleam of ethnic representation.
        Natalie and DVO (from last year) are often compared. But Natalie, unlike Denise, wasn’t a beloved celebrity entering into this competition, and she’s done absolutely nothing since her arrival to endear herself to the nation. I wonder if the judges find her a bit abrasive and glib, too?

        I thought earlier in SCD that Abbey was being protected solely because she had B2′d v early into the run and SCD wanted to protect the high quality women dancers.

        But given that she received the first (and so far only) 40 of the series and seems loved by the judges could it be that she is TCO?

        In which case, Natalie had better watch her step. The judges’ barbs for Natalie last week genuinely startled me.

        Awarding her the top mark of 6 in the Swingathon did her a favour in last week’s show but will not necessarily have done her favours for this week – from the behaviour of the voting public.

        Abbey is a technically excellent female dancer with terrific chemistry with her dance partner, and with a likeability factor.
        Natalie is a technically excellent female dancer, comes across as a person with no compassion, and with having no chemistry with her partner, Artem. I think Artem doesn’t like her…and then there’s another reason he may be keeping his distance:


        In last week’s separate-lives-like choreography for himself and Natalie, he seemed to be disassociating himself from her! The theme seemed to be that of a trail separation! ‘Look Kara, there’s nowt going on ‘tween me and Natalie!’ seemed to be the message. Not that such awareness of domestic concerns and impact seem to be inhibiting Aljaz’s routines with Abbey!

        Now if the right-on BBC want rid of Natalie (because she is just unremittingly unpopular – not because of any ethnic discrimination), what better opportunity to vote her off than in a dance-off against a black man? It would be a publicity-generating shock result, but there could be no accusations of bias about the all-white judging panel. Plus Patrick outscored her last week, while Natalie was deramped. It’s just, just, about a justifiable decision from a dance ability perspective.

        And who would pick up the votes from Natalie? I assert it would definitely be Abbey. The support for Natalie is from people who appreciate her dance skill; or from people who admire her go-get dedication. Either way: that support will mainly transfer to Abbey. Abbey has top-scored 4 times on the weekly leaderboard, and achieved the perfect score just two weeks ago.

        Why the SCD Abbey love?

        Looking over the list of Strictly winners, I see the last 4 have been Southerners. Tom Chambers was born in the East Midlands (which can sort of be considered Northern). The only two undisputedly Northern-raised winners have benn Darren Gough and Jill Halfpenny, back in 2005 and 2004 respectively.

        Do Strictly want a Scouse winner? Is that the North West representation on the programme’s winner’s list that they want to tick-box? Is this a related reason to the introduction of, and suitably monikered, ‘Kevin from Grimsby’ this season?

        Am wildly speculating -which I find fun and do for its own sake!- but wouldn’t it be lovely if Patrick, who’s served up that 18/1 winner last week, provides a 14/1 winner this week, courtesy of Natalie’s dismissal?

        Oh! and an extra thought:
        Saving the (in Craig’s words)’best male dancer’ Patrick over Natalie provides Strictly with the perfect cover / disguise / counter to any notion that this series has been geared to producing a female winner (Heaven forbid anyone from thinking that…):-

        A) There’s that [no hoper] Patrick competing in the final.

        B) The best dancer in the series, Natalie, had just been dumped out in favour of a bloke dancer.

        And the above would point to a scoreboard order of for instance:

        1st – Abbey
        2nd – Susanna
        3rd (joint) – Patrick
        3rd (joint) – Natalie
        5th – Sophie

        Based on what I’m theorising and with certain impressions of the brief training room footage:
        Highest score – Abbey (massive scores so as to be able to still mark Nat and Pat highly but keep them down the pecking order.

        Lowest score – Sophie – based on the training room footage.

        Patrick and Natalie – Patrick no lower than tied with Natalie, to allow room to justify sending Natalie home.

        Another factor that may intrude in the judgement of a dance-off is that Patrick is current BBC and Natalie is ex-ITV.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          From my guess at this evening’s eventual leaderboard standings, the 2s for Abbey to top score and 5s for Sophie to low score both appeal.

  • Jessica Hamby

    As a non-voting viewer I have to agree that Natalie and Artem don’t seem to have much chemistry although Natalie is, as you say, an excellent dancer. The chemistry between Abbey and Alijaz is, on the other hand, fizzing like the proverbial lithium stolen from the school chemistry lab and dumped in the fourth year boys’ toilets.

    I don’t find Natalie dislikeable. I just don’t find her likeable. I call robot.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Jess,

      What’s your impression of Abbey?

      From your likening of the chemistry ‘tween Abbey and Aljaz as over-brewing like a concoction found in a school toilets, I don’t know whether this means that you find their chemistry cheeky, sparkling and mischievous, or rather that you find if short-lived and skenky.

      Myself: I kind of like Abbey, despite her being a WAG, and married yet obviously lusting over another man. I like her more than dislike her, but do feel a bit sorry for her hubby.

  • Jessica Hamby

    I like Abbey. I meant explosive but on reflection slightly distasteful.

    A boy at my school actually stole some Sodium or Lithium or something from the Chemistry labs and dumped it in the lavatory and it pretty much exploded. It was a bit like a cartoon.

    The thing is, Abbey and Alijaz are both gorgeous. Peter Crouch, when asked what he would have been if he wasn’t a footballer replied “a virgin”. Even if he isn’t a cuckold he sort of looks like one and I find myself both sympathising with him and thinking I can’t blame Abbey or Alijaz because let’s face it – who wouldn’t. Personally I’d have a go on either of them and damn the consequences, and I quite like to think of myself as sensible.

    I think it’s one of those where if they are having an affair, the polite thing to do is go a bit French about it all and ignore it. If Peter can I think the audience will as well.

    As I said, I like her too, and with her accent that’s not easy.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Thanks. I would have made a tidy profit on him if I’d been betting. I would have done ok on a couple of evictions too. It’s times like this when I regret being sensible – but then hindsight is always 20:20 isn’t it….

  • Jessica Hamby

    Can’t reply in line on this computer, but thanks for your Lol. 🙂

  • Jessica Hamby

    For me the thing about IAC is that it’s mainly won on traditional values. The IAC voters seem to like people who are decent – who stand up to the awful, crazy, manipulative people, who do the trials, who share, who add to the morale of the camp and who are, in that Billy Bunter / Enid Blyton way, good eggs. With Charley from last year (and to a certain extent Kian from this year), they almost seem to like their winners a bit bland and dull.

    I think Amy could have reached the final this year and maybe even won if she’d managed to keep her victim status and not started to be a bit selfish (asking for extra food was her biggest mistake in my opinion – no-one cares two hoots about her concealing a bit of make-up). Thing is that in that sort of intense environment, however strongly the charm offensive starts, sooner or later the habitual personality comes out and it seemed clear to me that Kian was both dynamic enough to do well at trials and decent and personable enough to win people over.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Four 10s for Natalie but no standing ovation. If this were X-Factor they’d be saying she doesn’t connect with the audience.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Rare football mention: crazy scoreline from the Etihad – Man City 6, Arsenal 3. Man City racking up the goals at home is no surprise this season…but for any team to beat this Arsenal side 6 – 3 is remarkable.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Thinking of this result in terms of Champion’s League prospects, I’m put off both teams.

      Arsenal have just had 6 goals put past them. Enough said.

      But Wenger was right in his post-match comments when he mentioned that his side could have had 6 goals themselves.

      Giroud’s goals-to-chances ratio must be woeful. It’s easy to imagine a sharper finisher would have secured a hat-trick against City.

      Dortmund at 14/1 look over-priced for the CL. Their best players get cherry-picked but Klopp keeps on putting out a v competitive team, year after year.

      PSG are a team who can beat anyone on their day, they were so, so close to edging past Barcelona into the CL Semis last year,and with that experience under their collective belt, it’s possible to envision Ibrahimovich and co upping their game in the knock-out stages. 16/1 is interesting.

      Of the Spanish sides near the top of the betting, Real look the better bet of the two. Bale is bedding in beautifully now, meaning that the heat the manager may have been feeling over the sale of Ozil will have faded and be forgotten.

      Messi seems to be struggling with injuries this season. It could be one of those year’s for him. Plus, Barcelona never seem to buy any defenders. Puyol is an old war-horse now prone to injuries, but they still haven’t bought a replacement. I think they spent this year’s transfer budget on Neymar, so quality defensive reinforcements probably won’t be incoming until next season.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Suzanna got so excited there that she was speakng in a voice only dogs could hear.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Jeez. Abbey and Alijaz…..

    I could have lit a fag off the screen….

  • Jessica Hamby

    Looks like Patrick’s in trouble.

    Possibly with Sophie?

  • Jessica Hamby

    Patrick and Natalie hit bottom two. Patrick goes home. Natalie is clearly not going to win next week.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Does anyone else think Brendan has a bit of an unrequited crush on Sophie? I’ve thought so for weeks, or else they’re doing it and she’s better at hiding it.

  • Jessica Hamby

    How did last night work out for you Guildo? You got the bottom 2 correct with Patrick and Natalie but Patrick was the one to go.

    It’s pretty clear that whatever she does Natalie won’t win next week. I don’t think sympathy bounces will make a lot of difference at this stage. The public thinks she’s a dalek and that’s that.

    My gut instinct is that it’s Abbey’s, with Suzanna pipping Sophie to second place (which is a shame as far as I’m concerned – I like Sophie). I’m not a Suzanna fan although I know she’s very popular with middle england. Which leads on to another question….

    What is the male obsession with female newsreaders about? Is it the female authority figure thing? Is it just a woman with a home counties accent in a suit? Most of them are very average looking and the bulk of their work appears to be reading aloud. When did that get to be sexy?

    I’ve read tons of stuff about Suzanna Reid, sex symbol but when she stands next to Abbey and Sophie (who are, admittedly, both very attractive women with fashionably willowy figures) she seems very ordinary – nice enough but no sex bomb.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Disappointed with last night’s result, Jessica. Made a small loss. The writing was writ large on the wall early when the judges rolled out a full set of 10s for Natalie’s opening dance.

      I think my speculation that SCD desire an Abbey victory is correct, yet I feel they may have damaged their chances of engineering that outcome, by voting to retain Natalie last night.

      Natalie’s loyal fan base will now be extra motivated.

      I believe I was right with this projection:

      ‘And who would pick up the votes from Natalie? I assert it would definitely be Abbey. The support for Natalie is from people who appreciate her dance skill; or from people who admire her go-get dedication. Either way: that support will mainly transfer to Abbey. Abbey has top-scored 4 times on the weekly leaderboard, and achieved the perfect score just two weeks ago.’

      If Natalie had been dispatched, I too would be favouring Abbey for the win. She’s nearly as good as Natalie but, unlike that rival, with virtually no prior training.

      I have Susanna at 5s (I think) and at 2s…but I find it difficult to see why she is top price of 5/4 to win the crown, and take no comfort in that evaluation of her chances. That’s a cramped price for the worst dancer of the 4 women left, the 4 competitors in the final next week.

      The GBP’s sense of fair play often strengthens near final’s time. An objective evaluation of the worthiness of the winner often seems to become a pervasive perspective.

      Despite her unpopularity (from the professional ringer label) Denise VO came 2nd last year. The fabulous Ricky Whittle posted a Strictly 2nd place the other year. Arguably, these were the best dancers in their respective competitions, undermined by other factors.

      But still, it took a dancer within reach of their level, with superior popular appeal, to beat them,in both cases. Only the 1 celebrity dancer finished above them.

      So, I struggle to see how Susanna can beat 3 better dancers on the way to prevailing. Certainly, I think there’s little to no value in the 5/4 being offered for her.

      My fave is also Sophie.
      I can’t stand Natalie.
      Abbey has grown on me a bit.
      Susanna is a bit marmite – I can tell this because I go from liking her to finding she’s getting on my tits within the space of an inhale and exhale.

      I suspect there’s value to be had in the 4/1 on offer for Abbey and for Sophie.

      But which one?

      • Jessica Hamby

        Bad luck with the loss. When I saw the four 10s I too thought your goose was cooked. There’s no way you can get rid of a dancer who’s just scored a maximum.

        I’ve always found La Reud a bit annoying but I’ve met a fair few middle-class, mifdle-aged professional types who thimk she’s a sex kitten. I don’t get it.

        I think Abbey’s got a slight edge on Sophie but to me it seems to close to call, and Suzanna’s populärity just from familiarity may yet have an influence. I can’t see Natalie winning though. I may put a few pretend pounds laying her and / or Susanna but that’s about all. I haven’t got involved in the SCD market until now.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      ‘What is the male obsession with female newsreaders about? Is it the female authority figure thing? Is it just a woman with a home counties accent in a suit? Most of them are very average looking and the bulk of their work appears to be reading aloud. When did that get to be sexy?’

      Intrigues me as well.

      I wonder if the Sexy Susanna appeal is strongest in blokes who were raised by a nanny? Or went to Public School? There’s a non-nonsense Mary Poppin’s ‘spit-spot’ strictness about certain newsreaders?

      I think the cultural style of reading aloud the news is to be reading highly emotive content with a non-judgemental, non-partial tone. This build a tension in the newsreader and then the viewer.

      And there’s a definite intimacy built in how the newsreader intentionally or unintentionally leaks about their own personal feelings and reactions to the news content they are parroting. That Sophie Raworth pause that’s a little too long. That Fiona Bruce raised eyebrow.

      Now, I’ve never understood women’s lustful obsession with Simon Cowell; or why a kind word from him should be received with fanfare and accorded uber esteem – just because most of the time he’s a rude pig man of a man.

      As for Gordon Ramsey…as sex symbol – my imagination fails me!

      Sean Bean as Oliver Mellors, I understand; but I wouldn’t even understand deaf or blind women worshiping Gordon Ramsey.

  • Paolobow

    Haha – I agree with you Jessica. Suzanna is over-rated and she’s actually quite geeky really. A bit annoying too. Sophie is my favourite too.

    • Jessica Hamby

      Green, cat like eyes, china doll features and alabaster complexion (I’d swear the woman doesn’t have any pores) posture that appears to have been honed by years of Alexander technique and a demeanour so self-possessed it teeters on the brink of aloof, I think she’s divine. She’s like the perfect 1940s femme fatale or heroine and she’s transplanted that style magically, perfectly, to the 21st century.

      To me it seems like Abbey is fire and Sophie is ice. I love Abbey’s passion and connection with Alijaz but I love Sophie too, especially when she allows that sense of passion and power behind the cool to emerge.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    On the power of a partnership (an edited version of something I posted last month).

    Rob’s mention of Abbey’s ‘north-west vote boost’ got me thinking of the power of the Susanna and Kevin combo. Not just any old Kevin – but ‘Kevin from Grimsby’.

    Susanna is the plummy-voiced Southerner getting along famously with the no-nonsense Northern lad. That’s some powerful vote pulling coverage there, yes?

    In a competition filled with East European and American professional dance partners suave English Anton’s appeal is a strong USP. Arguably, Kevin has no competition as the embodiment of the Northern half of England.

    Susanna and Kevin have the chalk-and-cheese-but-get-along-famously dynamic of many partnerships in TV cop shows down the years. It’s a abidingly popular relationship trope.

    There is a variation of this chalk-and-cheese relationship dynamic happening with plummy voiced, reserved English Rose, Sophie, and Antipodean cheeky-chappy Brendan.

    The couple who fail the charming-chalk-and-cheese combination test are Artem and Natalie. The Arteminator and alpha-male-in-disguise, Natalie.

    Guildo’s Charming-Chalk-And-Cheese-Combination test.

    • Jessica Hamby

      Good points. I know a few guys who would pay money to drink the bathwater of Aliona Vilani or Kristina Rhianoff but I don’t think they vote for them. There is something appealing when the couples are close and it must be motivating when you can identify with them too. If only Susanna and Kevin had a bit more passion in there you could add Mellors / Lady Chatterly to their appeal but I think Abbey / Alijaz are going to pick up the votes of the frustrated spinsters…

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Seriously, I think you’ve identified a new voting sector there, Jessica.

        The ‘frustrated spinster’ (and / or frustrated housewife?) voting “group”.

        Hadn’t considered that factor…and I can’t think of having read it anywhere else.

        Kristina – can’t stand her. Wouldn’t pay money to piss in her bath.

        Aliona – Now you’re talking 🙂

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    I was posting this link as a sign of Susanna journey looking to me as being of indicative of someone who’s apparently high and mighty…yet heading for a fall:


    …until while skim-reading, I alighted upon this report –

    ‘Programme insiders say she is pulling in an astonishing 40 per cent of all votes cast.’

    If that figure is correct, I see why she is TP of 5/4.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    And that’s from The Star…

    Combining the stats and other info from the Mirror and from the Star:

    ‘Programme insiders say she is pulling in an astonishing 40 per cent of all votes cast.’

    ‘We can reveal she is getting more than double the votes of her closest rival.’

    ‘Mum-of-one Abbey, who has scored a perfect 40 during the competition, is only marginally behind Sophie in the votes, with Natalie a close fourth.’

    This puts Susanna on 40% (obviously.

    If ‘marginal’ is translated as having a value of no more than 2%, and ‘close’ as having a value of no higher than 3%,then voting share could breakdown as follows:

    Susanna – 40% (& more than double the votes of closest rival)
    Sophie – 19%
    Abbey – 17%
    Natalie – 14%
    Patrick – 10%

    10% vote share seems a tad high for Paddy to have polled at, so revaluing ‘marginal’ as 1% and close as 2%:

    Susanna – 40%
    Sophie – 19%
    Abbey – 18%
    Natalie – 16%
    Patrick – 7%

    I imagine the majority of the share of quiet Patrick’s small vote might transfer, if anyone, to quiet Sophie.

    Abbey has had two maximum 40s in the last 3 weeks and viewers are warming to her.

    Natalie will receive a small bounce from her B2 appearance and survival this weekend.

    Still big advantage Susanna then.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Is there value in laying Natalie? She seems the least likely to win just because of the “ringer” tag. If she can sing I predict a lucrative career in West End Musicals though.

  • Andy

    Any thoughts about Dancing on ice anyone ?
    Hayley at 9/2 is my initial instinst.
    Jai ho.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      That was a memorable routine. Could imagine her in the top 3.

      Very difficult to call, know who’s been brushing up on their skills, who’s busy in Panto etc. Bagging the right partner can be an influential as well. But being one of the choreographers’ favourites is often a bigger key.

      Of the top males, Ray looks a worthy warm favourite; I never liked Sam; and though I like him I worry that Kyran is knocking on a bit now.

      A fanciable strong skating male is tough to beat in DOI.

      Of the girls, I wonder if Suzanne Shaw might be being underestimated in the betting.

      I suppose at the prices I tentatively like Suzanne and possibly Kyran.

      I’m upset that they haven’t invited Vanilla Ice back – he’s got to be better value than watching what little Joe Pasquale has to offer.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Another angle could be:

        Perhaps Ray at 2/1 looks a better value win bet than Hayley at 9/2?

        I’ve only ever dipped in an out of series of DOI. I find it crumby fare compared to the Beeb’s Strictly.

        Thus all my speculations r v tentative.

        • Andy

          Thanks Guildo.
          I might watch a couple of episodes before getting too involved.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Heay! Andy, If you fancy her then there’s nothing wrong in tucking into a price (while it’s still there). Hayley was terrific.

            It is still true that there are a lot of unpredictable factors in this series.

            For instance, I kind of like Kyran, but I seem to (vaguely) remember reading stories of him criticising a number of the judges over the years; and I wonder if this has the potential to bite him on the bum.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Hi Andy,

            Took my own advice and backed Ray for the win at 2/1.

            Where is 2/1 available, you may enquire of me? At William Hills is the answer. On their website they are offering 13/8, yes…but in their shops they are still offering the old price of 2/1. 🙂 🙂

            My other bet was an EW one on Kyran at 10/1 at Laddies (1/4 the odds a place, the first 3).

            At this point I could launch into a verbose run-down of the field…but instead I’ll just mention in passing my doubt about Hayley.

            I’m a fan of Susanna Reid in Strictly but 3 months of her gurning and over-expressiveness is about my limit.

            I’m certain that much of the viewership of Strictly will fill their SCD hole by switching onto ITV1 to watch DOI. The prospect of another 3 months of watching another gurning, overexpressive dancer may be stretching to snapping point the GBP’s tolerance threshold.

            And Hayley -if her personality had a mother it would be Bonnie Langford- can get on my moobs.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            After tonight’s first heat:

            !0/1 Kyran: now 11/2
            2/1 Ray: now 10/11
            9/2 Suzanne, top femal: now 11/4

            Now looking v nice on ice

            Long may they shorten 🙂

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Plus the non-comedy skating turn provided by Joe Pasquale has melted away; and that Sylvian shyster has been given his skate-away orders too.

            Good results all round.

  • Natasha

    Now X Factor is over, onto Strictly! After catching up on the semi final, my money is on Susanna Reid. Almost went for Natalie weeks ago but glad I changed my mind. What is everyone elses thoughts on this years potential winner?

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      On this site, I’ve consistently excoriated (that’s a great pun, yeah?!) Natalie and Tamera for months.and considered them as a kind of great value “lay double” (if there is such a thing – answers on a bf postcard) for the respective premier Sat nite entertainment programmes of the two main channels.

      Have long respected abbey’s natural ability but have doubted her popular appeal. But she’s like that track on an album that you didn’t take to at first but over time wins you over; plus, her partnership with Aljaz is electric, and Jessica Hamby has outlined the appeal of such a hot bond of connection for many types of viewers.

      I see Abbey has already been backed into 3s (from 4/1). I’d feel more confident about Abbey contending for the win if there was no Natalie in the final, but perhaps she can actually do it.

      Then there’s the complication.of Sophie’s show-stopping Charleston reprise to factor into calculations.

      I feel there may be an element of anti-Susanna voting, but in a 4 dancer final, with good support for each of the other dancers, how can that support possibly coalesce around a principle rival? Who is Susanna’s principle rival?

  • Natasha McKenna

    I quite fancy Abbey for the win but I think it’s a really close call between her and Sophie. Susanna Cannot dance like the others and I really dont get the fascination for her – apart from her SCD viewer appeal. Also the fact that she is a BBC 1 breakfast presenter. These are the 2 reasons which are stopping me making a value bet on Abbey or Sophie. However, like X Factor, do viewers tend to leave it till the final before they vote for their favourite? I dont follow strictly as closely as X Factor so unsure if voting trends are similar? Is the show as manipulated as X Factor?

    • Jessica Hamby

      I have no way of knowing for sure but I suspect Susanna is popular with the office workers, the aspirers, the 30- and 40- somethings with kids, the people who find the news comforting and who like dad jokes. They can identify with her. If she can do it then so can they. I also suspect (though again have no proof) that that is a lot of people.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        A Sam Bailey – Susanna Reid everywoman double?

        I like it!

        • Natasha

          But Susanna is the worst dancer left by far whereas Sam B was exceptional, far far better than the rest on X Factor. The typical SCD voter i assume is completly different to the X Factor viewer

          • Jessica Hamby

            I imagine the typical SCD viewer,/ voter to be older and more white collar than the x-factor. Don’t know if that’s true but it’s what I’ve always assumed.

    • E J Thribb - age 17 3/4

      I don’t think the show is as manipulated as xfactor. The judges, for instance, seem to me to be independent as do the mentors. I don’t know how much input tptb have in song chpice but I think they do decide which dance each couple does and when, if only to ensure variety. I have no idea how far in advance this is decided or told to the mentor. Obviously tptb control VTs but I don’t know if they have a plan for who hey would like to win. I suspect what they’re really looking for is “a journey” from any contestant to create an ongoing narrative. If something like that occurs it immediately creates an emotional attachment and response and so it is given more screen time.

  • Natasha

    Yes me too Jessica which makes me think they would vote for talent rather than popularity

    • Jessica Hamby

      I’m not so sure. I think there can be a certain amount of parochialism and petit-bourgeois snobbishness amongst the british middle classes (and those who like to see themselves as middle class even though they’re not). It’s the same sort of mentality that has people declaring themselves for Oxford or Cambridge when the Boat Race comes around even though noone in their family has been anywhere near either institution.

      I think a lot of people vote for whomever confirms their image of who they would like to be and for a lot of people that’s Susanna.

      She’s sucessful and intelligent but she’s also “nice” and unthreatening. There’s no hint of sexual impropriety with her and Kevin the way there is with Abbey and Alijas. No hint of heartbreaker the way there is with Sophie, who at her best can probably break the hearts of strangers with a look. It’s more big sister and little brother.

      I think middle england is most comfortable with that.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    I think Susanna is very sexually suggestive and definitely hints at impropriety. It’s just that her ‘posh totty’ image makes this palatable to certain demograhics and sensibilities that otherwise would find it less palatable.


    If she had a less plummy accent, maybe an Essex accent, she might be viewed less favourably.

    I was surprised to learn she is married.I assumed she was single.

    But don’t get me wrong – I think she’s fab.

    • Andy

      I will 2nd that.
      She has made me smile every week since show 1.
      Probably the worst dancer left in the competition but definitely the most fun character.
      For the sake of my bank balance I hope she wins and I think she will.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        She is great fun, isn’t she?!

        Jessica describes Sophie as ‘Ice’
        And Abbey as ‘Fire’

        With the other contrasting elements being
        Susanna as ‘Bubbles’
        And Natalie as ‘Steel’.

        I’d be loving it if Susanna wins from a punting standpoint, too, (was checking my betting accounts before and found I had a nice EW bet on her at 8s. Yippee!) but as a keen dancer I’d be a bit horrified if she wins.

        In the final, she’ll easily be the worst dancer of the 4 ladies.
        In the semi, she was the worst dancer of the 5 competitors.
        In week 11, she was the worst dancer there (field comprised Abbey, Ashley, Natalie, Patrick, Sophie and Susanna herself).

        She’s been the 6th best dancer in the competition! And she’s odds-on fap to win the outright!

        I go further and say that if Rachel Riley, who was eliminated just as she was beginning to improve, was still dancing in this series, she would have improved past Susanna.

        Susanna leaden and very slow all-round movement, and joy of dancing, reminds me of Deborah Meaden. With a slight distinction – Deborah loved the dancing; Susanna loves the dancing and performing. Susanna would get a party started with ease – beyond the reach of Deborah’s serious personality.

        It intrigues me that Rachel Riley was so unpopular compared to Susanna.

        Rachel enjoyed a fairly strong profile, as presenter of 2 TV programmes, Countdown and The Gadget Show.

        White English Rose complexion, Southern-born, went to Oxford and yet was endearingly dizzy, smiley, positive and tom- boyish.and she was partnered with the ever-popular Pasha.

        I thought she would have been more popular.

        • Jessica Hamby

          One thimg about Susanna’s VTs is that she does seem to interact very well with the camera and the viewer (no surprise there, it’s her job) compared to the others. How much of that is down to tptb, editing, use of close-up etc and how much is her skill and experience to camera? I haven’t really looked but it’s something worth paying attention to if it gives insight for future series.

        • Jessica Hamby

          Rachel wasn’t a lot of fun though. Apparently her marriage was in trouble before SCD started and so perhaps she just couldn’t do bubbly / fun. She’s now split from hubby although there’s no suggestion she had an affair with her dance partner.

      • Natasha

        Yes Andy, for the sake of mine now too!! She HAS to win lol

    • Jessica Hamby

      Oh Susanna flirts, but I’m pretty sure she and Kevin aren’t doing it. With Abbey and Alijas I sometimes find myself thinking “poor Pete” and suspecting that they f**k like monkeys on the training room floor. That’s what I mean by secual impropriety.

    • Jessica Hamby


      Never seen that interview with Alex Turner before. Now THAT’s what I’m talking about when I say sexual impropriety. She might as well have been sitting on his lap.

    • Guildo Horn Forever


      I read that as the Coral’s spokesperson doing her best to add further whip to the backlash against Susanna.

      ‘And experts believe that by Saturday night her odds will be the shortest in Strictly history at 1/5…’

      ‘She now looks a shoo-in to land the glitter ball trophy…’

      I grow nervous when bookmaker mouth-pieces start promoting tips and encouraging you to back them before the price shortens!

      1/5 by Saturday? That’s funny. Susanna’s odds are slightly drifting. It’s to a large extent, Abbey, and to a smaller extent, Sophie, for whom the money’s been coming.

      I would love Susanna to win but I took the 3/1 for Abbey as a saver.

      Adrenaline will doubtless see Sophie overcome her knee injury on the night, but it’s in the training room this week, preparing for 3 dances, that her knee may prove a hinderance.

      • Jessica Hamby

        Interesting. I’ve not been follwing the market movement. I should have known better though. Always find out the source of a quote or a statistic.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    A forest of likely candidates yet Sherwood is handed the job. Am surprised.


  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Will be watching out for Weidman, Stokes, Adebayor, Rubi Ball, Crouch and Folidubh.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Doing my first ever on-line combination bets. (I’m a bit bored with the monotony of Win and EW singles). I’m on Sportingbet and want to pop in Crouch to be a first-goalscorer on Thursday.

    But guess what?They’ve no 1st goalscorer odds for the match!

    For crying out loud! Jeez…

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    I think every bookie bar sportingbet have tomorrow’s Lexus Chase at Leopardstown priced up.

    Apparently, they’ll have a market up around 9 or 10 tomorrow morning!

    Am irritated because I want to back a golf selection (available on sportingbet) in combo with Rubi Ball for the Lexus and Weidman (vs Silva).

    Imo, Rubi Ball has the look of one of those horses that bloody pricewise will tip in the the Post, with the inevitable price crash hot on its heels. So I don’t want to wait till 9am Saturday. (I fricking hate Tom Segal!)

    I like sportingbet, and I love the colour scheme of their site, but boy oh boy are those guys slow at creating and offering markets.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Didn’t think the 14s at Hills would last long – now 10/1 there.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      3rd. Backed it to win – not EW. So, that’ll be another few months before I try backing horses again…

      • Chris bellis

        Chatting with my bookie relative over Christmas he shared a few thoughts. He’s always said and proved to me at any rate that horse racing in this country and Ireland is pretty bent. He prefers American races and dogs, because the bookies get the odds wrong often enough for it to be worth laying the non favourites or even backing all the dogs in the race. He explained the maths of it and it sounded reasonable, and I know he makes a steady income on this. Margins are small though so you have to be very careful and know what you are doing. More careful than I am anyway. I suppose if it was easy everybody would be doing it and there would be a computer program to help you, whereupon you’d have no chance.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Irritatingly v canny prices on the MMA card from Paddy Power.

    Still, took the respec.16s and 9s on Barnett and Browne for k.o. of the night; and the 8s for their bout to be awarded fight of the night.

    Can’t wait to see the Rousey fight. Another arm bar would be a judoka joke.Sick.

    I see I should have waited for the sportingbet oddsmaker to pixel up the Lexus Chase prices…but hey ho.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      There seems to be a lot of tips on the net for Silva to take out Weidman in this rematch. But I think they’re wrong and am sticking to my guns.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Daniel, Andrew, anyone…will there be anyone else watching the UFC over the weekend? Any thoughts or perspectives or predictions on the Weidman-Silva fight, or on any of the other bouts on the card?

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        All the money’s for Silva, in all markets, and he’s into 8/15 to win. I’m hoovering up the drifting prices for Weidman in a few markets.

        Feel a bit all-in on this fight. Nervous but excited.

        Feel certain I have the value; just need the result to go my way now!!

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Also: 9/1 winner landed! Yes 🙂 Browne won the knockout of the night bonus, for his dispatch of Barnett. Just checked one of my accounts…and realised. Sweet 🙂

  • Andy

    Best of luck Guildo
    fingers crossed for us.

  • Andy

    Happy days.
    Thats gonna take a while to heal.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Andy,

      Didn’t get to see the fight, but from what I hear Weidman was on top…yet again (yeah?), before the ‘ouch’ moment befell Silva.

      Am always happy to greet a nice winner, but that looks a beast of an injury…

      WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT (Finish your breakfast before looking at this).


      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Shocking comment for me to make but I’m also a bit disappointed that happened because I really wanted the fight to go the distance, with Weidman (absolutely inevitably) winning on decision. Managed to grab 7/1 for that. Dash and darn! Still,,,

        Rousey with another arm bar. Outrageous! Her opponents must be terrified to try to defend themselves. If she gets hold of a defensive arm the next thing: the elbow feels as though it’s about to snap and it’s game over.

  • Andy

    Fantastic tipping by Guildo.
    I was’nt heavily involved but did grab the 11/10 when you1st sent the message out last month.
    Hats off yet again.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    The tennis season is back in swing and am having a brief look at this ATP Brisbane tourney.

    I recall Heisenberg making a good case for Cilic a couple of months ago, and he does jump out here at a good price but I wonder if the value bet may be Kevin Anderson EW at 18s. Anderson is one of those under the radar / off to the side of the limelight players who tends to be underestimated. EW at 18/1 is interesting.

    Actually, the Australian Open, the opening Grand Slam, is only a couple of weeks away and am noticing that Cilic is available at 500/1. That’s a wild price. He’s currently 484/1 on betfair; and can be backed EW at 300/1. A few years ago it took Andy Murray 4 sets in a semi at the Aussie Open to stop Cilic, who had endured epic (draining) battles to advance to that semi match up (3 of his previous 4 matches had gone to 5 sets). Of course, Cilic could end up drawing Djokovic in the first round, but at the enormous odds on offer, I think he’s defo worth a nibble.

    At the WTA Brisbane tourney, I notice Heater Watson has made it through to the opening round. She’s 7/4 against Cibulkova’s 2/5 quote.

    I recall watching Heather’s opening match of the US Open a couple of months ago. I had a lot invested in Simona Halep in that Grand Slam (Lord! that was a painful near miss of a tournament, that one) and watched in slow-motion disbelief as Watson outplayed and (unbelievably) overpowered the heavy-hitting and in-peak-form Halep for the best part of two sets. It was only Watson’s ring rust that saved Halep from being dumped out in straight sets. In the 3rd set, Watson (understandably) faded, and Halep ran through the set with ease.

    If she’s fit and well, Watson can beat Cibulkova.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Watching Watson vs Cibulkova. Cibulkova’s struggling with her serve. But worryingly, Cibulkova is beginning to pick Watson’s 2nd serve. Am taking cover.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Phew! Glad I did. Cibulkova’s just broken Watson.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Am break-even with a Cibulkova win. 10% profit with a Watson win. Will leave it there, while Cibulkova runs away with the match.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            a) fortunate to be watching the match…
            b) fortunate that Watson had the leaderboard serving advantage in that 1st set…

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Early in the service game in which she was eventually broken, Watson dollied a serve over at what looked like 50mph! She got away with that one, but she’s clearly in the grip of nerves.

            I think if Watson does, somehow, get into a winning position in this match, I can well imagine those nerves rising to the forefront again.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    The Splash! odds are up.

    Was optimistically hoping for a workable price for Perri Kiely. Humph! He’s the red-hot 6/4 favourite.

    Anna Williamson, imo, has plenty of the likeability factor, but seems plenty short enough at 7/1 2nd favourite.

    Una Foden is nursing a broken toe and is out to 8s in the betting, but she’s still of big interest. Perri and Una were the 2 contestants I was looking for.

    Ricky Groves is the outsider at 50/1. Of all the contestants, why Ricky should be the rank outsider is beyond me. 50/1 is a surprising price to my eyes.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Lord knows what happened to the Splash market. It was up for the twinkle of an eye (a day and a half) and then gone, gone, gone. Answers on a postcard…

  • Natasha

    Guildo, Boylesports have given me a £20 free sports bet 🙂 haven’t got a clue what to use it on, any tips for a value bet on anything sportwise?

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Natasha,

      By ‘sports bet’ do they mean anything in the sportsbook, as distinct from for instance their casino section?

      It might be worth checking via Boylesport’s live chat (if they have that facility) or freephone or email etc what their idea of a sports bet includes.

      It might be that you can use that £20 bet on reality TV…and there’s plenty of those shows upcoming.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    The 3 bets I hold on the outright for Brisbane:

    Anderson EW 18/1
    Querrey EW 40/1
    And have just added Cilic EW 10/1

    Fingers crossed…

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Anderson withdrew ill without hitting a competitive ball, Querrey was justly beaten in a see-saw match by an inspired Matosevic, and Cilic lost in a v interesting match against Nishikori.

      About my only correct decision was to take on the even money favourite Federer, who lost in the final today to…Leyton Hewitt!! I doubt many predicted Hewitt winning this tournament.

      Federer now has to worry about the older generation having caught up with him! I did wonder about the logic behind inviting Stefan Edberg onto his coaching team, to help Federer with his volleying. A pointless step back in time.

      For the Australian Open I like the look of Nadal, Tsonga and Cilic.

      At the top of the betting you can have Djokovic at 11/10 of Nadal at 5/2. There’s a hair’s breadth between them, quality wise, so why there should be the disparity in their odds is difficult to account for.

      Tsonga is overpriced and Cilic, imo, is a 500/1 outsider to keep faith in a bit longer yet. I saw the first 2 sets of Cilic’s match against Nishikori. In the 1st, Nishikori was too quick, in every respect for him. In the 2nd, Cilic adapted and a la Klitschko started to engage and dominate with his strengths. I missed the 3rd set, were Nishikori ran out with the win – but still, Cilic had shown progression in that 2nd set and had given another glimpse of the further potential he has.

      If Goran could introduce a topspin forehand into Cilic’s weaponry, Cilic could become a nightmare to play against.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Happy New Year, everyone!

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Watched Van Gerwen beat Jackpot the other day. His finishing was unbelievable (and unbelievably quick); and so am looking favourably at the “over” 5/6 odds on Van Gerwen’s highest checkout (at 136.5), in the final tonight.

    Looks good to me.

    Wouldn’t be too surprised if he produces another 9 dart finish. Combine his quarter f performance with his semi f performance and that’s what you would almost expect tonight. (But the 11/1 odds on this eventuality are risible, I must say. Rubbish value.)

    Van Gerwen for most 180s at 1/5 looks a near certainty.

    But the “over” 5/6 bet looks the one.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Had a look at some of the Aussie Open results and was quadrupedally pleased with Janowicz.- a) he’s not injured! b), he has had and survived a (much-needed) tough 1st round contest, c) his serve is firing and d) he’s received one of the kinder quarters of the draw.

    I am chuckling to see he is 150/1 – in consideration of the number of bets I have on him at 100/1. I seem to have more money on him than I realised.

    If he beats the odds and makes it to the semis, he would likely face Djokovic. At that point I would be reduced to offering up the usual malevolent prayers!

    • Heisenberg

      Good luck with Janowicz, Guildo. I hope he comes good for you, although he’s not on my radar for this tournament.

      With Murray slowly working his way back and Federer seemingly vulnerable against any top 20 player, I took the huge 75/1 on Tsonga who could very realistically play Del Potro in the semis – now that’s a match up!

      On the women’s side I went for Na Li and am hoping for a Serena shock exit before the semis.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Backed Janowicz multiple times a while ago, which has resulted in a poor value price for me. Backed Tsonga last week at 50/1. Lol. It seems to be an odds-on shot that I secure motley odds!

        Agree with holding low hopes for Murray. Henman’s prognosis verdict of Murray, combined with Murray’s desperate and sudden capitulation against Mayer – does add up to little confidence in Andy winning 7 successive matches in Melbourne. This Grand Slam may transpire to in effect be part of his pre-season (to borrow from football-speak).

        Tomic has just retired injured at the end of the first set against Nadal. On EuroSport2, the analyst has noted that that’s now 8 injured players already at this Aussie Open. Cilic has just leveled at 2-2 against Granollers.

        Cilic was a bit passive in the first 2 sets and lost them both. Went for his winners in sets 3 and 4 and won both. Am reminded of Cilic’s match against Nishikori last week.

    • Boki

      Halep or JJ value bet for 3rd quarter winner? I took JJ thinking she will handle the heat better but have no idea actually what I’m doing.

  • lolhart

    Hi there, I know it’s a bit early for X-Factor but I was wondering if there are any thoughts on them lowering the age limit to 14 again. My initial thoughts are they have either (a) scouted a solo artist who is below 16 who they really want on the show; or (b) they are planning to cobble together a group with some younger members. It will probably be a boyband considering Union J failed to take off as a mini One Direction.

    • Nissl

      I’ll mention that there’s a 16 year old guy on DS who was asking for feedback and apparently was scouted by XF. Sounded like a competent boyband member to me.

      I kind of doubt the show would try for a 1D replacement this year. 1D itself hasn’t shown any signs of weakening yet, and the boyband market seems to be largely winner-take-all, so you’d probably just wind up with another Union J. (UJ, by the way, are apparently getting a second album, so the market is further saturated.) If I were Syco I’d be looking to stockpile assets. Liam got rejected at 14, then 1D was formed around him two years later. I’m sure 1D will become vulnerable in a year or two, so get some prospects in there, start building a relationship, and keep them from going to Voice or (next year) Rising Star.

      More generally I’m curious to see what they do with the groups next year. It’s become a very saturated market. Perhaps an urban-lite JLS replacement, sitting in between Rough Copy and 1D? Might they try something rockier (seems to be the new wave, 5SOS/Vamps/Rixton) or more laddish/EDM (Wanted/male Neon Jungle) instead?

      Is it even worth bothering with the girl groups? If so, is there any interest in finding a version of Miss Dynamix that actually works, sitting on the urban side of Little Mix and competing with up & coming group M.O? Or perhaps going to the glamour side and trying to replace the Sats (who are probably folding up shop after a Greatest Hits tour this fall)? Albeit this last approach is kind of what was tried several times before LM, resulting in repeated first-week exits.

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