X Factor Week 2 Post Mortem: Shell Out

We had worried that the flash vote might lead to some dull Sundays, if an obvious target hit the bottom on the Saturday. That may yet happen, but today saw one of the most fascinating Sunday debates in the Sofabet comments. All shades of opinion were represented on who would be saved if Kingsland Road found themselves up against Shelley, Abi or Luke, the three considered most likely to join them in the bottom two.

Having rewatched the show this afternoon, my instinct was that Kingsland Road had surely been set up for a bottom two appearance – the Strictly bus and big-name sandwich will hardly have been accidents – but that the positivity of comments and staging suggested this was with a view to bouncing them into the tour.

I continued to believe that producers had no interest in Abi – an impression reinforced by her lack of screentime in the Sunday show’s opening montage and group song – but had more doubts about what their intentions would be towards Shelley, given her role as the show’s only fun act for the year.

The market considered that the boyband would be more likely saved against Shelley than Abi – Shelley’s odds to be eliminated were barely longer than her odds to be bottom two, whereas Abi’s elimination odds were double those to appear in the bottom two. I would, conversely, have been much more confident getting stuck into Abi to go had she been in the bottom two.

The staging of the singoff certainly pointed towards Shelley going – she got red-and-blacked, as Lorna had last week, while Kingsland Road got more positive blue lighting, help from the backing track and a song with a lyrical message of positivity compared to Shelley’s ‘Stop!’

However, with Shelley trading as low as 1.15 on Betfair, I decided that on this occasion discretion would be the better part of valour. With, objectively, a perfectly reasonable case to be made for the show keeping Shelley around – they have never been shy of controversy, or without a novelty act this early in the series, and they did seem to be doing their very best last night to help Shelley bounce – I decided I’d keep my powder dry for 1.15 shots I have fewer doubts about.

It’s hard to avoid the sense that SeSe’s hospitalisation – which she attributed in a tweet today to a panic attack rather than anything pregnancy-related – blew a hole in producers’ plans for last night. Surely the outcome they’d hoped for was being able to save the boyband over Miss Dynamix.

Where they go from here with Miss Dynamix will be fascinating to watch.

If you were more confident in the result than I was tonight, I hope your confidence was in the right direction. And if you’re feeling annoyed at that result, imagine what Joseph Whelan is thinking.

As ever, do keep the conversation going below.

35 comments to X Factor Week 2 Post Mortem: Shell Out

  • Boki

    Yes, to put it shortly 1.15 was a no go.

  • Stephen

    I agree with you daniel, I had a small bet at 1.18 but just for the sake of it. Was not going to pile in on it. I also would have been much more confident having a bigger bet on Abi and im sure the odds would have been quite good.

  • Dean

    Yep I certainly feel bad for Abi but she will not be on the show much longer. She is possibly the casualty after MD next week. I still think Sam C is struggling in the votes too. Sam and Nic topping votes IMO

  • I overestimated the bounce.. but I think Shelley not bouncing enough has a lot to do with the new flash vote. The public probably thought she was safe on Saturday night and didn’t bother voting for her on Sunday (or probably forgot about her performance, it was pretty forgetful).
    I think we’re going to discover a few surprises during the rest of the series with this “flash vote”

  • Tim B

    Although not a disaster, Miss Dynamix not performing messed up my week. I’m sure many others are the same.

    • stoney

      Exactly this, them exiting would have been profit on several bets while opening doors on others. Instead I Ended up rushing on the next elimination market which was a mistake. Only minor losses though so will be happy to long as they go next week

  • eurovicious

    Two female overs gone first just like last year. Though it feels funny describing Lorna as an Over when she’s a few years younger than me and I don’t exactly feel geriatric. Come to think of it, Joseph Whelan is too and he’s a DILF. Christ on a stick.

    Everything will be done next week to get MD off now that their unreliability from a production perspective has been demonstrated. Sese probably had a panic attack when they realised they were being stitched up.

  • Horrible week for me, Novelty act not bouncing, then not being saved.

    Called this one wrong for sure. Who knows what would of happened should MD not been ill.

    On to next week

    • eurovicious

      Didn’t bet but I share your pain mate. There’s no-one else who can carry the “fun/novelty” flag either – what are they gonna do, make Hannah go all M People? Kingsland Rd are the closest remaining thing to a fun act and they’re damaged goods.

  • Dan

    Ah, Luke is still with us…never mind, it was only a small bet. I noted the very positive comments from the judges, particularly Sharon and Gary. Out of him and Sam C, surely he is their favourite.

    Poor Abi though. She knew she was in trouble and looked like she was going to throw up when they were announcing who was safe. In fact she looked resigned to going. It’s very obvious that she’s struggling but I wonder if TPTB will give her some help next week.

    And speaking of next week…we’re going to get to know Kingsmill very well. Think the Little Mix treatment, names on t-shirts during their performance, etc. As for Miss Dynorod, pregnancy isn’t a disability but the last thing my missus would have done at six months pregnant is spend hours in grueling rehearsals dancing and singing. They are goners, the questions are when and how? With Abi, Luke, and Sam C all being weak, I get the feeling that Dynorod are more likely to get put on “maternity leave” rather than get eliminated through the public vote.

  • Natasha

    Someone said in a pervious thread the TPTB have to some degree, control over what stories the press release on X Factor finalists. If thats the case and if Tamera is supposdley plan A, why would they allow the shoplifting story to be published? I’m 100% team Nicholas (such a little cutie and consistent with his performances) so am all for more bad press on Tamera, the worse the better!!

    • lolhart

      Well, there’s nothing to stop someone going to one of the tabloids and saying “Tamera beat me up” etc. Even if it’s one of the Cowell affiliated rags, they can choose to run with a story or not. The show needs the press after all to survive

  • Killer of a weekend, I was all set for Miss Dynamix to go and had them in a combination of bets.

    Will they be gone this week though?

    If prods make it too obvious then they could get the Chris effect from last year and hang around for even longer.

    If they don’t make it obvious enough then they could actually put in a decent performance and natrually get enough votes.

    or they get rid of see see, replace her with Lydia Lucy (who at auditons they said would be good in a group)

    All logic suggests they’ll be gone but at 6/4 is it really a chance worth taking?

    I’m expecting Kingsland and Abi to get a helping hand, which should be enough to see both of them through. Rough Copy are due an early slot, so what affect will that have on them? I’ve been underwhelmed by their two performaces so far. Who would be saved in a Rough Copy v Sam Callahan sing off?

    If the obvious, Miss Dynamix going, doesn’t happen this week then I haven’t got a clue where to start

  • eurovicious

    Abi should do Petula Clark next week.

    Work it out…

  • TommySauce

    Not sure if it will make any difference at all to voting patterns, but noticed my local Morrissons now has an A-board outside with a pic of Abi, in Morrisson’s uniform, with guitar and a ‘Proud of Abi” type message in it. Seems to be more material inside. Considering we’re several hundred miles away from her hometown, I’d guess this is a national campaign by the supermarket to help promote her?

    • stoney

      Im a regular customer at morrissons and unless they were offering me some free food and drink every week there is nothing that would make me vote for an act I have no interest in.

      • TommySauce

        I’m with you. Also suspect the “local lass/chap” is a much better motivation for those in their regions than an act might have replenished the baked bean aisle in a shop you sometimes buy milk in…but this site would be very dull if the strange voting behaviour of the X-Factor audience was simple to predict!

  • wow, first Sese and now Abi… Is every contestant planning to go to the hospital before being booted off the show?

  • lolhart

    Aren’t TPTB in an awkward position with Miss Dynamix now? If they try and get them to leave, they’ll be accused of bullying a pregnant woman. And if they fire all cylinders at them it will be too obvious they want them out. Their one live performance so far was mediocre so they might be better letting things run their course. There’s plenty of other fodder they can lose in the meantime

  • Kevin

    Still wondering how Abi got away with that performance but as someone suggested it was probably regional support. I will be curious to see percentages when released. I think that her price remained relatively steady on Sunday was a bad sign. Shelley was the one whose odds were shortening as were Leone’s on the Sunday of week 1.

    Abi is the one that got away. Did anyone throw an Abi voodoo doll down the stairs last night?

  • Ilivetowin

    Horrible week for me too! I’m new to all of this…but I have a great teacher! I’m also somewhat of an insider too – but sadly this year I haven’t been able to get any tips from the inner circle, although I’m working on it.

    I honestly was convinced Shelly would bounce – it seemed like a sure thing for a lay – TPTB did everything they could to keep her in. Had a little win with Kingsland being B2, but not enough to make a difference and was almost depleted by the end of the night!

    In all fairness – I’m really struggling to like this series. I was bored by Sat nights show and just couldn’t get into it. One thing I’m fairly sure of – there’s no way in hell they are going to let Sam B win. And Tamera isn’t going to either, too much of a loose cannon and she’s too pretty and confident to win over the teen vote.

    I think RC will make the final along with Nick…

    Just some thoughts. But majorly bummed out about sun result.

  • Nissl

    Bit late with this comment, but I’ve been wondering if bouncing is being looked at the right way. Is it more of an “uh oh, one of the 3-4 acts I like was B2, better support them next week” bounce than a sympathy bounce?

    That would explain Shelley’s lack of bounce. Reading forums, very few people seemed to have invested anything in her. Lots assumed she would stay in for another week due to camp fans or a bounce. Few planned to vote for her.

  • Shoulders

    I was convinced Shelly would stay as the only act that steered towards the fun silly part of the show, so another elimination bet lost for me, however I do have Tamera on a 20/1 EW bet right from the start, I’m not sure she can win though, I don’t think people will endear to her, but saying that the show can make whoever they choose when the show, anyway I’m thinking of doing a lay bet, anyone have a tips about the best time to do this, not an expert in this field by far!!

    • Boki

      I would say that now is a good moment to lay and get at least your stake back. For the rest, it depends how convinced you are that she can win, what your target profit is / how greedy you are etc.

  • Daniel

    Hi Shoulders, catching the best time to strike is always an art rather than a science. It’s worth bearing in mind that over the last few weeks, Tamera’s win price has lengthened (making her not as attractive a lay bet) when bad publicity hits the tabloid press. This seems to happen on a Saturday morning, helping to keep the programme in the headlines. Her price has tended to shorten (making her a better lay bet), during and after the show, given her great treatment on it. She’s now 2.66 on the lay side with Betfair – the shortest she has been so far.

  • Shoulders

    Thanks for the info

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