X Factor 2013 Pre-Lives 1-12 Prediction: Home in on Barrett

Here we go again: our speculative attempt at second-guessing the public and producers for the X Factor live shows. The fortunes of the acts are liable to turn in directions we could never have predicted. So at this stage, a full finishing order prediction represents a fun exercise in pretending to have a crystal ball.

Read it and feel free to fully disagree. As long as you provide your own in the comments, of course (as Andy, Ben Cook, Dan, stoney, AlisonR and Highlighted already did in the comments to the last post). There are bragging rights up for grabs after all.

12th place: Miss Dynamix
After the new girlgroup made it into the live shows, lead singer SeSe told show bosses she was pregnant. She’s now nearly six months gone. That’s further down the road than Charley from 2 Shoes, who made the same revelation after getting to the live shows two years ago, only to see her group unceremoniously dumped in the 2011 week 1 twist. She had her baby a week after the final.

At a logistical level, it’s clearly something the show’s bosses would rather avoid. And if they’re going to throw them under a bus, why not do it straight away, before the frankenband have had any chance to build up a following? It’s a chance worth taking at their current best odds of 10-1 in first elimination market, still available with several firms.

11th place: Lorna Simpson
Lorna is favourite in that first elimination market, and rightly so. A lack of screentime before bootcamp marks her down as the gamma Over. She’s the epitome of the big-voiced black girl who never lasts more than a couple of weeks. Couple that with some damaging press earlier this week, and only a demolition job on Miss Dynamix may save her from going home this coming weekend.

10th place: Luke Friend
Luke was the first auditionee we saw this season. That was a promising start but it’s been downhill ever since. His arena audition was held over until the following week, he failed to impress at bootcamp and got a gamma Boy edit at Judges’ Houses. Considering the preferential treatment given to the Girls category, that puts Luke in line for being the first young soloist out.

9th place: Abi Alton
Abi is single figures in the win market with most bookmakers, so I guess this counts as our shock early exit. Abi was shown plenty of producer love at the audition stage, but it wasn’t followed up at bootcamp nor Judges’ Houses, where her edit was particularly cursory. She thus goes into the shows with far less momentum than that other guitar-playing singer/songwriter Lucy Spraggan, who ultimately struggled to pull in votes last year.

8th place: Kingsland Road
Dug has a soft spot for the band he describes at the “acid-trip hipster quintet of doom”. They’re certainly fun, but I fear that the combination of slightly dodgy vocals, cheesy dance moves and looks that may just be a little old for the tween market will limit how far they go in the competition. At any rate, they should stick around long enough to justify a place on the tour.

7th place: Shelley Smith
Shelley is allotted the Katie Waissel / Kitty Brucknell memorial position of seventh based on the hypothesis that she will be this year’s figure of fun. As with those characters, it may involve a “controversial” singoff save along the way. It’s hard to imagine a series of X Factor without it, right?

6th place: Sam Callahan
Sam is this year’s Lloyd Daniels, a young lad whose looks rather than vocal capabilities will propel him towards the later stages of the competition. To be fair to Sam, he’s a confident performer with more Twitter followers than any other contestant at the time of going to press.

Quite how producers will handle his “confidence” will be intriguing. Do they put a positive or negative spin on it? Either way, the reasoning behind placing him sixth is that he’s interesting enough to make it this far until the public and bosses feel that better vocalists deserve a shot at the final.

5th place: Rough Copy
The decent edit that Rough Copy received at Judges’ Houses, and the willingness of producers to have them enter the live shows despite two years of legal wranglings over Kazeem’s visa, indicate that they might well be the alpha Group. They bring personality and half-decent vocals to the live shows.

Quite how Middle England takes to them is open to question. As with Tamera, it’s probably for the best that damaging stories, in this case about Kazeem’s criminal record, come out sooner rather than later. But it can go one of two ways: it can be a journey of redemption or the bad press can keep coming.

4th place: Tamera Foster
We have the ante-post favourite just missing out on the final. Producers likely see Tamera as their most marketable act in this year’s line-up. They’ve certainly given her the most chances during the audition stage: a specious storyline starting off in a duo, a super-long edit after appearing to forget her words in her arena audition, and then a chance to seek redemption for the bullying stories that followed her audition – without overtly referencing them – in a chat with Nicole at Judges’ Houses.

This indicates something in itself. Producers are already aware that Tamera is not an easy sell. She looks the part but whilst her vocals are not brilliant, it’s her inability to “connect” that may hold her back most, especially when it comes down to the public vote alone, as it usually does at the semi-final stage. Hence placing Tamera in the finishing position of other divisive girls such as Cher Lloyd and Diana Vickers.

3rd place: Sam Bailey
We have Sam Bailey breaking the glass ceiling for female Overs, previously hit by Mary Byrne and Niki Evans, and making the final. Why? She’s a more interesting vocalist who has been given much greater billing at the audition stage. She’s a feelgood contestant with a feelgood returning judge. This all should have her at or near the head of affairs in the early weeks, where she will presumably be pushed as the alpha Over.

In the later stages, she may become more vulnerable to the storyline that did for the likes of Tesco Mary. The one that “you’ve already done enough to change your life”. She doesn’t have the commercial edge of some, and her demographic may not be broad-based enough to win the competition outright. But she represents much of what this show tries to promote as its positive side, and we think that can get her to the final.

2nd place: Nicholas McDonald
We do not underestimate Wee Nic at all. Not with his nice voice, his regional advantage, his obvious role as the alpha Boy and his wide demographic appeal. All that seems to add up to a place in the final, and producers must be aware of it too. As with Sam B, he seems likely to be at or near the top of the phone vote in the early weeks, especially as Scotland will surely relish the chance to vote for their own again in a Simon Cowell-produced TV show.

That can take him very far indeed, maybe even help him win the contest. Our reason for not choosing him to do so right now is the feeling that producers will do their best to help someone else over the line when it matters most, someone more credible, commerical and modern – in the Girls’ category they have pushed hardest of all throughout the audition process.

1st place: Hannah Barrett
Hannah offers that blend of credible, commercial, modern….and female. She combines the authenticity of James Arthur with the powerful backstory of Jahmene Douglas. She’s been the standout performer at both bootcamp and Judges’ Houses. Her strong voice, genuine passion for music and compelling personal story should make her standout to neutrals once more come the later stages.

There are some things to overcome: her voice and looks are not necessarily the stuff of conventional X Factor winners. But we think that will be spun to her advantage. She’s the one the show could be most proud of taking the prize; producers seemed to have realised this over the last few weeks. You can expect to see that reflected in judges comments throughout the live shows (“you can represent our country around the world” etc).

That can take her all the way. And while the fancier prices available after Judges’ Houses have disappeared, at a general 11/2 in the win market – twice the price of Tamera, and marginally longer than Wee Nic – she’s still the one that appeals most at current odds.

What do you think? Which of the placings do you most disagree with, or does our list seem reasonably realistic? Do let us know below, and if you haven’t done so already, join the fun by giving us your own finishing order.

86 comments to X Factor 2013 Pre-Lives 1-12 Prediction: Home in on Barrett

  • This is almost exactly the same as mine 😀

    1. Hannah Barrett
    2. Nicholas McDonald
    3. Sam Bailey
    4. Tamera Foster
    5. Rough Copy
    6. Sam Callahan
    7. Kingsland Road
    8. Shelley Smith
    9. Abi Alton
    10. Miss Dynamix
    11. Luke Friend
    12. Lorna Simpson

  • Natasha

    Great post and I completley agree with your justifications for finishing positions. I hope the latter part unfolds to your predictions. I think we will all be very happy with that result 🙂 BTW, if DS is correct in song choices for this week (of which I posted in the previous thread), this would seem to confirm that TPTB have Hannah in their sights as potential winner. Although, I am aware of how unreliable DS can be!

    • stoney

      Considering the spoiler lists came out yesterday I very much doubt they are credible seeing as last year we still didn’t know most of the songs til they actually sang them!
      Also while I don’t agree with hannah winning I’m getting stuck into the 11/4 available for top girl

  • Phil

    I just don’t get Hannah. We’ve seen similar acts over the years who haven’t made the final and I don’t see what’s different this time. You don’t hear her style of music on the radio. Whilst all could change come Saturday night, at the moment I’m still torn between Tamera and Nicholas.

    But this is why I love this stage of the competition 🙂 for all we know, we could all be miles off.

  • Ben Cook

    I think you’re spot on with the top 2 and I agree mostly with the rest of your predictions too. I do wonder though whether they will try to get Sam out before the final if there is a risk she will take votes away from Hannah and end up with a Nicholas win.

  • tpfkar

    Oh dear. I’ll post my 12-1 (scribbled down a couple of days ago so it was independent of yours.) But we are miles apart, and my book is a disaster area if your finishing order is correct.

    [b]12th: LUKE FRIEND[/b]
    As I posted the other day, I can’t see who would vote for him, or why he’d be worth saving in a sing-off. Producers seem keen on him, but he doesn’t seem to be getting any interest.

    [b]11th: LORNA SIMPSON[/b]
    Producers have invested precious little in her to date. Unless she wows us week 1, looks like an early bath.

    [b]10th: ROUGH COPY[/b]
    Fishing in the same waters as MK1 last year, who were gone by week 3. There are simply no votes in their style of music.

    [b]9th: MISS DYNAMIX[/b]
    I don’t think they will be bumped off first as it would be very obvious that it was about the preganncy, and there’s a journey to mine. However one VT about how over-rehearsing isn’t good for the baby and they are toast. I maintain they would have been alpha group otherwise.

    [b]8th: HANNAH BARRETT[/b]
    Week 5 gives us the shock and here’s mine: more Tracy Cohen than Alexandra Burke. Visually an agressive black female, no star quality – with Tamera settled in it make no sense to keep Hannah around. Tears every week will get tiresome. Possibly heading to 4th Misha B style, but that’s the best I can see.

    [b]7th: SAM CALLAHAN[/b]
    [b]6th: SHELLEY SMITH[/b]
    This is the only area we agree, albeit the other way round. I agree with your reasoning here.

    [b]5th: ABI ALTON[/b]
    The risk is that as Abi gets to the end of the competition, we’ll gradually lose interest in the flowery girl plays piano schtick.

    [b] 4th: KINGSLAND ROAD [/b]
    Impromptu alpha group thanks to Sese, and heading down the same path as Union J did last year.

    [b]3rd: NICHOLAS McDONALD[/b]
    They’ll want him in the final but not winning the thing. Having seen the long game they played with Christopher Maloney I can see the same strategy again here. May not have the star quality of the other two.

    [b]2nd place: TAMERA FOSTER[/b]
    I’m unsure of the order of my last two. However I think Tamera is less feelgood than my #1, and she doesn’t need to win to have a big career, unlike

    [b]WINNER: SAM BAILEY [/b]
    Plan A always closes the opening audition show. Don’t overestimate a weak girls’ category. Mrs O wants to win. Sam looks spectacular in her makeover and has been shown producer love again and again through the auditions. She’s after the mumsnet vote. And I’m not about to bet against mumsnet.

    • Phew – thanks, tpfkar. Great to read your slightly different take, because a large degree of consensus, such as we’ve had so far, always worries me – are we all missing something?

      I’ll be even happier that we’re avoiding groupthink if someone would care to make the case for a final of Luke, Lorna and Miss Dymanix live by satellite from the maternity ward.

    • Henry VIII

      Tpfkar do you have any other reason for thinking Sam is TCO? Several of them have had producer love. Sam is an unmarketable cruise ship singer imo.

  • Notice how 1st live show running order slots 1-3 (*2nd live show for 2011 due to the twist) have been inhabited by gama-over (Melanie Masson/Sami/John Adeleye) + gama-group (District3/Nu Vibe/F.Y.D.) + boy TPTB are confident in (James Arthur/Craig Colton/Matt Cardle). Are we heading for a 1.Dynamix 2.Nicholas 3.Lorna??

  • Nissl

    As far as trends this season, I predict the producers, if they’re up to it, will shift to a slightly more patient flaying of certain undesirable acts instead of their old sledgehammer tactics. If I disagree with anything in your list, it’s that I think you’re granting the producers a bit more power than they now have over the audience and I question how much commercial potential producers think Hannah will have after the winner’s halo fades.

    12. Luke – Well, uh, he’s got a bit of a hippie thing going on that diversifies him a bit and his voice is serviceable by cute boy standards. But KL’s got the alternative boy thing covered, so I’ll guess they’ll try to bounce him first to smooth Nick’s flight path and make more a more interesting series opening headline than dumping Lorna.

    11. Lorna – Her voice and presence are strong enough to give me a bit of pause, but ultimately she doesn’t really stand out in any way given the wealth of female diva talent this year and limited interest online. Put her on early with minimal support once or twice and I think that’ll be it.

    10. Miss Dynamix – We don’t actually *know* 2 Shoes was bounced for the pregnancy, right? But it still seems unlikely the producers will risk it, and they’ll be mad they weren’t told in any event. However, they’d be wise to proceed gingerly rather than hitting MD with the bus in the first show. Manufactured groups don’t typically start with a base, but this one seems quite popular on fan forums and their judges’ house audition has garnered the most views of any on Youtube. A few VTs about the pregnancy that build the narrative “they’ve had a little run, but it’s clearly best for all parties concerned if they go” ought to see them off without engendering much ill will. Plus a few weeks of exposure might be enough to take a commercial shot next year, which was the original plan, no? The whole situation’s a real pity as they’d probably be my top group pick without the pregnancy.

    9. Shelley – Campy, fun presence but not really a full-on novelty act I see the public getting behind, nor is her voice great. Considering producers are looking to clear the overs for Sam and perhaps pretend they’re a bit more serious about the music this year, I think she’ll fall short of the typical controversy act finish.

    8. Abi – Folk hippie type with a decent but fairly thin, slightly nasal voice, moderate charisma, and a severe gamma girl edit. That said, the thing she does clearly appeals to a distinct, fixed subset of the audience and she already seems to have a base online in various forum polls. I was eyeing her up as a surprise first exit until I saw that. This is another act producers should plan carefully to take apart from day one. Hope you all enjoyed watching them grind down Janet Devlin.

    7. Sam C – Slightly more serviceable voice than I was expecting from internet comments, although it’s certainly not good, and he emotes well enough. Combine that with his ultra hunky body, confident personality, and existing following and in this field I think he’ll make it roughly halfway.

    6. Kingsland Road – They’re a less attractive, more flamboyant, slightly older 1D and I just don’t know how much teen girls are going to react to that given an increasingly saturated boyband market and a field that also contains Nick. They do have solid charisma and seem to have developed a small base – second to Sam on Twitter, if I’m not mistaken – but they have zero appeal outside their core demo and they might also be seen as threatening Nick past a certain point. I feel producers are approaching them as a flier act and looking to gauge audience response. Because of this, I’m really unsure about this placement and expect they will probably be pushed a spot or two lower or higher depending on early voting results.

    5. Rough Copy – This year’s urban marmite act and putative JLS replacement. They’re in considerable danger of going out much lower if KR catch on and get the final 4 push instead; I suspect the producers are giving them a good shot but aren’t married to them given their age and other nagging issues. I originally had given them the Cher Lloyd/Misha B urban marmite memorial slot but thinking about it more there’s probably no way the producers wouldn’t push Tamera through. (On a personal note, it’s weird watching them because I find them charming most of the time but incredibly grating when they try flirting, which comes across as highly aggressive and wildly out of line with mainstream US standards.)

    4. Tamera – The way I see it, the entire structure of the final depends on whether she can be steady, become more likable, and connect emotionally when she sings. Right now she’s got star looks, a good but not great voice, and alpha girl treatment going for her, and she’s not without fans, but far more people think she will win than want her to. That’s a recipe for a very vulnerable frontrunner, especially with Sam, Nick, and Hannah all having voices that connect easily. I’m betting that connection is a hard problem and not going to be solved by producer tricks or a concerted effort at learning to emote better. I suppose the producers will still push her ahead if she winds up in a pre-semi B2, so doubt she’ll go out lower than this.

    3. Hannah – Very good, engaging, powerful voice that draws me in much more than Tamera’s. Lots of narrative grist as well. I’m a bit concerned that she likes to cry at the start of performances instead of just afterwards. That will wear thin fast if it continues regularly into the live shows. At the end of the day she’s not *that* interesting and I doubt her commercial potential beyond the winner’s halo, but I expect one of the girls to make the final 3. Don’t see her going further against Nick or fellow beautiful-on-the-inside contender Sam, who has a better voice and looks to get more help. I also think she’ll go under the bus around 5th or 6th pretty easily if Tamera connects better than I expect her to.

    2. Sam B – Lots of predictions put her in the Mary Byrne slot, but I think that’s misguided given that she’s on a higher level in both vocals and charisma and seems to have major alpha help from the producers. Getting her to the finals will restore some luster to the overs and be a nice authenticity narrative for the show, and at her voice caliber producers may figure she’s got a solid shot at a Susan Boyle type career. Still, Nick’s voice keeps up with her in his better performances, so I expect him to beat her out in the end on youth and producer help.

    1. Nick – Seems to be a fairly complete package other than a mediocre physical look, which is much less important than voice and stage presence in any event. Expect some unevenness but should deliver enough standout performances to wind up on top with a bit of producer help. Commercially I’m sure his first album will sell well, but he seems a bit dull to sustain a long post-show solo career and I can’t help but wonder if he would have been better off serving as the core voice of the next 1D.

    • We don’t *know* about 2 Shoes, true, but given how full-frontally they unloaded on Nu Vibe a mere week later, there must be some reason they just didn’t ditch Nu Vibe in the twist and it does seem the most obvious explanation.

      Agreed about Rough Copy. Daniel and I were saying to each other that they need to be careful to avoid slipping into the Derry Mensah sleaziness zone.

      • Nissl

        Should have read the shotgun story before posting my 1-12. That sets Lorna up like nobody’s business. Would move her to 12th on my list if there were an edit function.

        With respect to 2 Shoes, keep in mind that they were intended as a camp novelty act rather than one of the commercial favorites. We also don’t know how a week 1 bus would have gone over with the audience voters, and I suspect producers have been sweating it as well, particularly given their failed assassinations in the early going last year which should have them reaching for subtlety.

        It’s also worth looking at coverage. MD seem to be getting pregnancy focused but highly positive stories right now, with a vague girl power vibe and light jokes coming from Barlow. If they were going for a quick bounce I’d expect more serious, worried articles. Perhaps bring a doctor in to focus on possible complications, or go into SeSe’s private life (unmarried, irresponsible mom narrative would be lethal in the US anyway). Heck, maybe leak a fight rumor, nothing does bands in like that.

        Nice to know it’s not just a US/UK cultural difference on Rough Copy. Was wondering.

        • Nissl

          By the way, I’d agree with you that MD is a risk worth taking at 10-1. I think there’s perhaps a 1/3 chance they’ll go for it, and 1/2 chance they’ll be successful if they do.

        • Don’t forget they’ve got a 30 minute overlap with Strictly to play with on Saturday’s show – probably enough for two acts. If those two acts were to be (as Panos suggests above) Miss Dynamix followed by Nicholas, they might not need any backlash-risking sledgehammer tactics.

          • Tim B

            I think enough for 3 acts! Or perhaps 2-and-a-bit.

          • Would Strictly fans be Miss Dynamix voters anyway? I think that’d hurt Nicholas far more.

          • Nissl

            Ah, well, when you put it that way…

            Nicholas third as the Strictly audience samples the live show for the first time this year (as much as to flush the first two acts) sounds like a good idea.

            MD, Lorna and Abi are all prime candidates for the first 2-3 slots. But will that be enough to dump MD out over Luke and Shelley? I’m looking at them topping the YT views and coming 4th/3rd in the two favorites polls on DS. They seem to have a remarkably strong following out of the gate for a frankengirlband.

            Eh, they could go home this week easily enough. Can’t resist playing devil’s advocate though.

          • Even if they get Miss Dynamix in the bottom two they have to avoid Lorna getting bottom two as well as she’s nailed on to go if she is b2. So I don’t think having both of them in the first 3 (unless MD given a good edit opening the show) is likely.

          • I’m all for devil’s advocacy 🙂

            Nicholas in third, for both the reasons you mention, makes a whole lot more sense – as Tim says, most probably the timings will work out so the third act will be on as people are switching over.

            They also really can’t afford to focus too exclusively on one act in the first show, anyway, given that this is the first test of voting strength – they need backups. So, yes – stick a couple of disposable acts in the Strictly zone, and let the chips fall as they may.

            Luke – surely if the pregnancy worries them, then Miss Dynamix would be gone in a B2 against anyone, including Lorna? And if the pregnancy doesn’t worry them, then this whole discussion is moot.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Yep, Nissi, me too. When I read that ‘shotgun story’ I had to back Lorna.

      • TommySauce

        I’ve gone for Miss Dynarod as first out – logic behind it was:

        They’ve obviously been created for a reason – as a credible and (short-term) commercially viable commodity off the back of a top 3/4 finish…at the very least something for the tour and perfect for the seedy nightspot appearances.

        Pregnancy throws huge baby-shaped spanner in the works. Can’t remember dates but appears it would be due close to, or before the final, which not only creates all sorts of logistical risks and problems during the lives and rules them out appearing in the final but also more or less rules out performing for at least first few weeks after final (even with a relatively straightforward and complication free birth and a mother who *really* wants to get back to work)

        What benefits do TPTB have for keeping them in – knowing they’re going to have to pull the plug on them sooner rather than later? Entertainment value? No – they’re clearly not intended as a novelty or to appeal to the “anti-Cowell”* demo

        There may be some mileage in the “pregnancy” journey, but I think it’s limited, they know they have to end it quickly anyway and I believe the risks outweigh the potential benefits (plus, I suspect they ran through the benefits of a pregnancy storyline when the Two Shoes thing came up and *even* with a disposable comedy act realised it wasn’t worth the risks)

        Risks to TPTB? Health and safety stuff – sure even they don’t see “X Factor miscarriage” as good PR, more difficult logistics, having to handle her with kid gloves and perhaps not being able to resort to usual bullying tactics to get acts to do what they’re meant to. Problematic rehearsals, more potential for fallings out with bandmates due to special treatment etc.

        They need to engineer a departure anyway** and risk for them will be that the pregnancy itself could gain the band some traction in the voting – sympathy/empathy. Currently the vast majority of XF viewers probably don’t know about her condition, allow them to go a few more shows and more people will be aware of it. If they’re expecting a backlash over chucking them out, better to do it sooner, than later when real sympathy and a fanbase has built up.

        Plus numerous other acts far more easy to dispose of as fodder later, without backlash risks and who don’t add to the burden of producing the shows like a pregnant girl does – so why waste Lorna or Luke in the first week?

        Fingers crossed I’m right on this! I’ll be shamefacedly trying to avoid eye contact in the comments section post-Sunday otherwise!

        *I know he’s not visible involved, but I still think people vote certain ways in the mistaken belief they’re somehow thumbing their nose at him

        **My worrying counter-theory, which I’m trying not to think too much about: they engineer a departure unconnected with the voting – lovely positive “isn’t it great news”, few weeks of lots of VT showing caring judges cooing over pregnant singer, establishing how loving the entire XF process is, then the band themselves announce week 3/4 (after using their positive perception to bounce a few fodder candidates off the programme) “we’ve gone as far as we can and we don’t want to risk ruining someone else’s chances when we know we can’t proceed to the end”

  • stoney

    Good to see miss dynamix first elimination odds are shortening now

  • Ronnie

    Just a quick one on Abi – interesting she’s already been labelled a ‘one-trick pony’ by Nicole. This was the weapon they used to get Janet Devlin out – samey, dull, boring, ect – could they be preparing the ground for an early exit? Who knows.

    • Ben Cook

      Weirdly the judges seemed to dismiss pretty much every act they put through, particularly Louis.

    • annie

      another quick note on Abi: in the digital spy interview she was asked if she ll perform any originals and she gave an akward but quite definite no as the answer. remember last year there were discussions that rights to he songs performed on the show are given up, and that maybe was the reason for lucy quitting. Maybe she is showing resistance already and that is the reason she was so pimped early on and not so much anymore.
      Oh and another thing. I am a bit surprised on how Luke s chances are so dismissed. Look him up on youtube, his singing material is quite decent. On top of it he has a cute face, endearing almost. I would be quite surprised to see him as first or second eliminated.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Lost track of XF goings-on as I became wrapped up in all things Strictly.

    Remember,at the first audition stage, having misgivings ’bout Tamera’s ability to shake off her past; and commenting that I was simultaneously ‘moved and bored’ by Hannah.
    So, I was happy to read and take Daniel’s favouring of Hannah and, like stoney, took the 11/4 top girl.

    Know nothing about Miss Dynamix but decided, eventually, to get involved with the tip for them to be first out, at 9/1. I like the rational and precedent reference.

    Btw, what happened to that “over” with the hunky looks, rubbish croaky voice and omni-present kid?

    There isn’t a wildcard this year then? (Or have I missed that?).

    • stoney

      The only bet youve missed from my stable was my call for rough copy top group, the 5/2 on that has long since dwindled into evens territory

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        You are a stable in form, stoney, and one to follow, and we do seem to back many of the same selections (!) but as you say that 5/2 you took has long gone so I’ll need to look elsewhere for value in that sub-market.

        Think I agree with Dan’s thoughts (below). At current prices who do you think is the best value in top group section now?

  • Dan

    Mine again (posted on the last article):

    12. Lorna Simpson
    11. Luke Friend
    10. Shelley Smith
    9. Miss Dynamix
    8. Tamera Foster
    7. Sam Callahan
    6. Abi Alton
    5. Rough Copy
    4. Kingsland Road
    3. Sam Bailey
    2. Nicholas McDonald
    1. Hannah Barrett

    My take on it is thus:

    We’ve seen so little of Lorna and it’s highly unusual (if not the first time) to introduce a solo finalist at Boot Camp.

    I don’t see what demographic Luke is targeted at that isn’t covered by Sam C. He needs to wash or cut off that greasy mop.

    Shelley, as the semi-novelty act, will only get so far in the public vote but won’t be saved by the judges.

    Miss Dynamix, being this year’s Frankenband have had judge and producer input so they won’t let them go straight away. The pregnancy allows for a sensitive and positive send-off before SeSe is too far gone.

    In 2010 and 2011, the producers desperately wanted a young, urban female type to win. The public didn’t buy it but for both years, the acts were railroaded through by the judges. With the elimination process this year being more transparent, the programme will look ridiculous if it repeatedly saves the most unpopular act. Tamera is this year’s Cher Lloyd/Misha B and no doubt the drugs/bullying revelations will resurface.

    Sam C is there to keep the teenyboppers talking and tweeting about the show. That won’t translate into votes though.

    Abi may be good but she’s niche and may get samey after a few weeks. I get the feeling that the producers got bored of her hence the lack of Boot Camp/Judge’s House coverage, and suspect that the viewers will too.

    Tough one this but I think that Rough Copy will be the beta group. Good though they are, a young, black male group (one with multiple criminal convictions) may be perceived as a bit too “aggressive” and frighten the voters, especially when compared to…

    …Kingsland Road. I’m not sure what the viewers (and voters) will make of them but by default, I think they will be the highest ranking group. Expect them to trend on Twitter along with Sam C several times a week.

    Now it gets tough, and I’ve noticed that my top three placings match those of the Sofabet team…

    The voting demographic will identify with Sam B which will get her to the top three. But even after scrubbing up very well and belting out the classics week after week, I can’t see the producers wanting an over, especially an older one to win.

    Nicholas McDonald will be the housewives favourite, but I think it’s the year of the girls and therefore Hannah to win. She can sing, has the sob story, the personality, and the opportunity for a journey (reunited with mum during the competition?)

    However I could be wrong, and SeSe in Miss Dynamix is replaced by Melanie McCabe half way through the competition and they go on to smash it and win.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      ‘Tough one this but I think that Rough Copy will be the beta group. Good though they are, a young, black male group (one with multiple criminal convictions) may be perceived as a bit too “aggressive” and frighten the voters, especially when compared to…

      …Kingsland Road. I’m not sure what the viewers (and voters) will make of them but by default, I think they will be the highest ranking group. Expect them to trend on Twitter along with Sam C several times a week.’

      Yep, Dan, only just getting back into the swing of XF, but that sounds about right to me.

  • Henry VIII

    I just can’t see them wanting Hannah to win.

    They’ve invested great edits in her so they’re likely to make sure she’s around a while. But I agree with the comment, Boki I think, that they will eventually ditch her for someone cooler.

  • Andy

    Dan, I don’t see what demographic Luke is targeted at that isn’t covered by Sam C. He needs to wash or cut off that greasy mop.

    Don’t be surprised if he does.

    • TommySauce

      Suspect TPTB will keep the haircut in the bank as an assassination tactic.

      At some point – hopefully soon – a couple if judges will suggest he’d be much better with a cleaner image…

      Mop goes and a) whatever fanbase he had purely based on the greasy locks evaporates and b) they and everyone else realise beneath the dreadmocks is a pretty average looking chap with a pretty average voice.

  • Andy

    Cut his wash and cut his hair , That is.

  • Andy

    Cut and wash his hair. that is.
    sorry rushing again.

  • Mech

    Well, a couple of years ago I posted a little post-final analysis which compared some of the early predictions to random chance. In the spirit of that, my list is :
    12 Sam Bailey
    11 Hannah Barrett
    10 Kingsland Road
    9 Nicholas McDonald
    8 Sam Callahan
    7 Shelley Smith
    6 Miss Dynamix
    5 Tamera Foster
    4 Luke Friend
    3 Rough Copy
    2 Lorna Simpson
    1 Abi Alton
    While I admit it doesn’t add too much to the discussion at the present moment I’ll be intrigued to see how this compares to the way things pan out…

  • Andy

    William Hill match bets.

    Abi 5/6 v Rough Copy 5/6
    Hannah 4/9 v Sam Bailey 13/8
    Miss D 4/5 v Sam C 10/11
    Tamera 8/13 v Nic 6/5

    Sam C tempting at 10/11

  • Manged to get some 9/1 earlier on Miss Dynamix to go, although only £45. TPTB surely see them as useless now and I’d rather back that then Lorna, who is a) a better singer b) will cause less issues and c) makes Tamera look like an angel

  • tpfkar

    Henry VIII – Sam B is the over who seems to have been taken the most seriously by producers in a long time. I see producers looking for another Susan Boyle who is anything but unmarketable. I also see the show and its audience growing up after 10 years and she is clearly tough and committed. I don’t see why they would have given her so much attention in the audition stages unless they had big plans for her.

  • Daniel


    Abi Alton – Livin On A Prayer

    Sam Bailey – Power of Love

    Hannah Barrett – What’s Love Got To Do With It

    Sam Callahan – Summer of ‘69

    Tamera Foster – Ain’t Nobody

    Luke Friend – Every Breath You Take

    Kingsland Road – I’m Your Man

    Nicholas McDonald – True

    Miss Dynamix – Jump

    Rough Copy – In The Air Tonight

    Lorna Simpson – So Emotional

    Shelley Smith – Alone

    • Daniel

      Initial thoughts. Sophie Habibis had to sing an awful slowed-down version of Livin On A Prayer. Shelley Smith is being Maloneyed. Every Breath You Take was a District 3 flop. I think Kingsland Road should be bringing some fun to proceedings.

  • I can easily see the judges telling Miss Dynamix that it’s the wrong song. Also, Lorna’s could be more like So Forgettable.

    Shelley’s was a big surprise!

  • As Tim suggests, Miss Dynamix have a strange song choice. It’s there a speeding bus hurtling towards them ready for Saturday night?

    Slightly worried by Luke’s song. The Police and U2 songs never seem to deliver the best performances.

    Lorna’s song will play to her strengths, but then she has to compete with big numbers from Shelley, Hannah, Tamera (expected a better song) and Sam B.

    It’s now solely down to the running order as to whether Lorna, Miss Dynamics or Luke make bottom two.

    • Chatterbox5200

      Don’t you think that Luke’s song choice will suit his voice?

      I wonder if the M!ss Dynam!x song will be Jump by Van Halen, or the more likely Jump (for my love) by The Pointer Sisters – covered by Girls Aloud.

      Wasn’t “Alone” one of the songs on the Bootcamp list that seemed to be done again and again by the auditionees?

  • Either Jump will be difficult for the girls to pull off.

    I do think EBYT will suit Luke’s voice, I just worry about the implications of him singing quite a dull, melancholy song.

  • Guess work at this stage
    12 Lorna Simpson
    11 Luke Friend
    10 Miss Dynamix
    9 Shelly Smith
    8 Rough Copy
    7 Sam Callahan
    6 Hannah Barrett
    5 Nicholas McDonald
    4 Tamera Foster
    3 Kingsland Road
    2 Sam Bailey
    1 Abi Alton

    Happy to swop 5 and 3 around, lots of guess work, only view is mainly on the first 3 to be eliminated and the top 2 to win, rest… no idea.

  • Chris Bellis

    I’m a novice in this company, but I note there’s a huge amount of publicity here, failure as a cruise ship singer or not:

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Miss Dynamix – will they jump before they are pushed?

    *Grabs coat and walks away in embarrassment*

  • stoney

    12. Lorna
    11. Luke Friend
    10. Shelly
    9. Miss Dynamix
    8. Abi Alton
    7. Kingsland Road
    6. Sam Callahan
    5. Tamara
    4. Sam Bailey
    3. Rough Copy
    2. Hannah
    1. Saint Nik

    (reposted in correct section)

    And im still sticking by this even though i took 12/1 on miss dynamix to get first elimination, i only fancied the value on that, i think they have got too much support to go first week, id expect them to last a couple of weeks

    Just placed a treble match bet on william hill, for nicholas to beat tamara, sam c to beat miss dynamix and rough copy to beat abi, unfortunately they only let me put 25 pound on, god damn!!!!

  • Andy

    Ladbrokes got half dozen match bets up.

    Sam Bailey 5/6 v Abi 5/6

    My moneys on Sam B.

  • Interested on other peoples views? Assuming that in the event of Deadlock, the act bottom on Saturday goes…

    I find it hard to see how they can remove Miss D, so easily on the basis as below.

    2 Shoes, there were more acts that year..and the pregnancy wasnt as publisized as Miss Dynamix has been? I dont seem to remember anywhere near as much comments about the pregancny in 2 Shoes. It was probably easier to dismiss 2 shoes because they were a novelty act and probably the worst of the 4 in Tulisa’s category at that time. Surely the fact that they have highlighted that one act is heavily pregnant repeatedly this week, makes it harder for the producers to eliminate them without making it too obvious, and receiving a negative response as a result? Miss Dynamix are better than a few acts.

    Now also these are not a 2 piece band, Miss D are a 3 piece, whats to say they cant remove SeSe should it be required? They could have a full VT dedicated to how hard it was for SeSe to leave temporarily, that will give them an extra week for sure. How can we rule this out so easily, 3 would still become 2, therefor a group. The producers do have options.

    I think the fact that the result of a deadlock is known in advance is a big negative here, I personally dont think they have any chance being stonewall last, its alot harder for them to get the boot via judges vote without Deadlock, it would look too obvious?

    I do agree that the song choice this week is poor, but this could be aimed to make sure that they dont gain any fans so that when they do decide to pull the trigger its alot easier, stops any momentum.

    They could easily get them out in week 2/3 without it looking too obvious.

    Anyway, I expect Lorna to go this weekend, with a bottom 2 v Miss D, then Miss D getting the bounce to go in week 3

  • Boki

    From tellymix:

    After voting lines have closed and the votes have been counted and verified, the contestant with the lowest number of votes will be revealed and told that they face the sing-off tomorrow night.

    Voting lines for the remaining contestants will then reopen until Sunday night’s show where the second contestant to face the sing off will be revealed.

    The two acts will sing off as usual before the judges decide who stays and goes.

    However, bosses have yet to confirm how a deadlock situation – where the judges cannot agree on who to send home – will be decided.

    Previously, the contestant with the fewest votes in the public poll has been sent home, but the new flash vote format will see two different polls.

  • Boki

    Is there another source which confirms that bottom vote on Saturday will leave on deadlock?

  • R

    If anyone hasn’t searched “Hannah Barrett” on Twitter yet, there seems to be a rumour that she was a troll sending homophobic abuse to Rylan & Union J.
    Jamie’s Union J has also tweeted this to his followers before deleting the tweet.
    Depending on how the show treat this will give a good indication of if she is TCO.

    • Tim B

      Christopher Maloney also tweeted this, I think the name was something like “Shanice” and he linked the account, where there was a photo, and it almost certainly wasn’t her.

  • Santa Giles

    I think Sam Bailey wins this. I think that the effect of the judge/mentor has been overlooked.

    We saw last year that Zinger smashed it with her connection with jahmane and james arthur – she seemed to really care. Just like Tulisa banging the table did for Little Mix.
    We all voted for Joe McElderry because we all liked Cheryl and so was really voting for her.
    Just the same with Cheryl and Alexandra burke.
    and we all thought that danni liked a bit of Matt cardle etc…and so now I think that Sharon will have the mentor status who will have the connection with Sam.

    Sam has had good airtime and makeover already and I can see a real storyline with her and Sharon bonding and she hold a note too. Shelley will be the joker act and likely last a few weeks and lorna is just forgettable with zero air time so far.

    Otherwise, I think Nicolas will have Louis proclaiming that all of Scotland have to vote for him – and grab second place. Sam and Luke are just a bit bland for now – either one could get momentum or easily just chucked and I can’t split either.

    I think Kingsland can grab top group as Gary keeps on saying how they remind him of a young Take That. I don’t think Gary has much of a connection with Rough Copy nor Miss Dynamix and a lot has already been written with the pregnancy / criminal past already of those two groups. Kingsland seems the easiest group for him to manage – if in doubt they will sing “back for good” and he will say how they sang it better than take that did- its all set up for a nice 4th place for them.

    which leaves Zinger – i can’t quite tell how she will treat Abi – she might well get Devlined. And Tamera might be too much work – as many have mentioned Hannah could be plan A but I think producers / Zinger can well swap them about depending on how things are progressing. But Zinger will get them all through the first few weeks safely enough.

    As for first elimination – obv running order is crucial with the strictly overlap and the new flash vote. I’m not sure how that will pan out but otherwise I think Lorna vs Miss Dynamix for me. i can’t see either act having any long term future here and so can be chucked out here at first opportunity.

    My order: 1st Sam Bailey
    2nd Nicolas
    3rd Hannah
    4th Kingsland
    5th Tamera
    6th Luke Friend
    7th Shelley
    8th Abi
    9th Sam Callahan
    10th Rough Copy
    11th Miss Dynamix
    12th Lorna

    Good luck all!

  • Highlighted

    Does anyone else not think Abi is not a huge price to get eliminated? She is good but not sure how well she has connected with tv audience and she’s definitely a disposable person at this stage. Could be way off mind.

    • stoney

      funny that a fair few on here were saying abi was going to be TCO, cant see her going first though, im sure she will have gained enough regional interest to survive the first month

      • Highlighted

        Abi and Nic are prob my 2 faves but when it comes to betting Brain has to rule the heart. Don’t think Abi will go but 33s is huge. Could see that dropping as Living in a prayer slowed down is just crap.

  • Cath

    12. Miss Dynamix
    11. Lorna
    10. Luke
    9. Rough Copy
    8. Abi
    7. Shelley
    6. Sam C
    5. Kingsland Road
    4. Tamera
    3. Nicholas
    2. Sam B.
    1. Hannah

    Compiled having viewed the above predictions, week 1 song choices and a bit of gut instinct. Though I am by no means confident. I think the argument for miss d going out first is quite compelling, I’m slightly hesitant based purely on how good they were at judges houses. But since when did talent play a big part in these things? 😉
    I think Rough Copy are too urban to make it far, Lorna has had so little air time and Luke feels like another Frankie C.
    Will be investing to see how it all plays out.

  • Highlighted

    Also any idea on running order?

  • Mech

    Ok, a more considered selection, not based on a random number generator.
    12 Shelley Smith
    11 Lorna Simpson
    10 Nicholas McDonald
    9 Sam Callaghan
    8 Kingsland Rd
    7 Abi Alton
    6 Rough Copy
    5 Luke Friend
    4 Miss Dynamix
    3 Sam Bailey
    2 Hannah Barrett
    Winner: Tamera Foster
    I’m not convinced of my own logic here (or even necessarily know what it is). I suspect I’m underestimating many of the various biases of the voting audience that have been discussed here over the years, but I’m feeling optimistic and giving them the benefit of the doubt.

    • stoney

      you could make decent amount of money backing nicholas to go out that early, hes evens to make the top 3, id be interested to hear you logic as to how he could possibly go out so early, although i have backed him to win, i know its not a dead cert, but given his air time alone without considering many other factors there isnt a cat in hells chance he is going to go out in the first few weeks

  • stoney

    Not even 1 week into the lives and Hannah is already on voice rest! Hope this isnt true, ive invested a decent sum of money on her being the top girl.

    • Natasha

      It’s worrying isn’t it. Maybe TPTB will have to revert to a plan C. Say Tamera doesn’t get backing from the public no matter how hard they push and they can’t have Hannah as TCO due to the problems with her voice, which, I can see happening quite a bit, will they have Nicholas or Sam B as plan C?

  • Natasha

    Just found this story on Mc Nick. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/x-factors-nicholas-mcdonald-opens-2360524
    Looks good doesnt it. I can not see any negative press ever coming about on Nicholas and only more good ones to come

    • stoney

      Great find tash, although my heart went when i first glimped at the link, thought he was gonna be opening the show tonight lol.
      Id expect this to be used in his VT at some point

  • Cath

    I think the strictly overlap might have an addition impact this year, other than just disadvantaging those on first. As the flash vote is taken after just 200 seconds of voting (as pointed out by Richard Betsfactor on his very fine podcast), those that have been watching strictly and recording xfactor may not have got to the end of the show before the flash vote closes, so their vote may not be taken account of in the flash vote. This could favor the acts with a younger demographic vs those who also watch strictly. So this weekend, watch out Shelley!

  • R

    My 1-12 based on Twitter followers and DS voting, then adjusted by how off-line voters would skew these figures plus current XF editing and song choice:

    12.Lorna – can sing but fishing in the same pond as stronger acts. Sings “So Emotional” with few close ups and a dark background. Louis tells us that there was a lack of emotion and he doesn’t think she connected with the viewers at home. Gary tells us a Whitney song in the first week was brave, but it didn’t work for him.
    Was surprised she only has 2.5k twitter followers compared to Sam Callahan’s 74k! 2.10% on the DS vote.

    11. Miss Dynamix – as Nicole likes to say “No baby no!” Jump is an upbeat song so may get them the few extra votes to keep them in. 6k twitter followers. They have 7.4% on the DS vote, which is good enough to save them this week (for me).

    10. Shelley – Hope they don’t kill off two overs in the first two weeks…so she gets the week three slot. Alone is one of those songs that can be over shouted will highlight the vocal weaknesses Sharon has previously mentioned. She is currently bottom of the DS vote with 1.64% but may get more of the older vote. 7.5k twitter followers.

    9. Luke Friend – set to be one of the also rans.
    Janet remained top of the votes singing the stalker song in week 4 & District 3 came 4th in week 4 with this song last year. While I feel this song won’t lose him any fans, it won’t gain any new ones. Only on 3.85% on the DS vote.

    8. Sam Callaghan – don’t remember much about him (I had the same problem with James Arthur). He has 74k twitter followers, which is 21% of the total contestant follows, but only 4.81% of the DS votes. So I’m guessing he’s in the same bracket as the boy groups from last year who had massive twitter follows but not the votes. Summer of 69 gives him the chance to be “Mr Sexy”.

    7. Rough Copy – Visa, no point. Prefer a polished original. They have a strong twitter following and are 4th on the DS vote with 11.73%. In The Air Tonight gives the judges the chance to comment on the strengths/weaknesses of their harmonies.

    6. Abi – the week she sings barefoot and reveals her 14 toes to the world will be the greatest sob story ever. I keep pushing her up into the top 3 but have to keep putting her back in the crowd due to the poor JHs VT. She has 33k twitter followers & 11% of the DS vote. I also see her appealing to a wider audience than other contestants. I don’t think Living on a Prayer will suit her voice. Done as a slow ballad will be a disaster.

    5. Hannah – very Jahmene, as mentioned previously. Currently top of the DS voting but only 16k twitter followers. Nicole has apparently told her girls to cry a lot and she is the best crier on the show. Or, to steal a great Fix Factor quote:
    Dermot: “Why are you crying?”
    Misha B: “For votes.”

    4. Tamera – saved three times, gets a contract, gets over-hyped in the US, gets dumped by the record label. 33k twitter followers & 2nd on the DS vote with 16.48% (behind Hannah). She may struggle to gain new fans.

    3. Kingsland Road – A slightly different style of boy group. Too Niche to gain a decent following unless they change their image. Will gain followers to add to their 49k twitter followers but 4th bottom of the DS vote on 4.65%. Marcus Collins sang I’m Your Man in week 8 and came 3rd, very close to Amelia & LM.

    Really confused by where to place them at the moment and they ended up in my top 3 by default.

    2. Sam Bailey – Gets the mum vote but won’t get the youth vote. Doesn’t have the local vote of a Maloney or Tesco Mary so may not make the top 3. However, Power of Love could be the strongest song choice this week and she’s had the strongest editing to date.

    24k twitter followers , 6.17% on DS vote.

    1. Nick McD – Some mum vote, the Scottish & Irish vote (Ireland like to back the Scots) and more of the youth vote than Sam. Has the 3rd highest twitter following on 45.5K (behind Sam C & Kingsland) & 3rd on the DS vote with 12.5% (behind Hannah & Tamera).

    His crowning glory will be being hoisted over the audience in a kilt for his final song.

    I kept swapping Hannah & Sam B. Hannah has a stronger on-line voting base but Sam will attract more of the older fans. Hannah may have issues with her voice in future weeks so dropped a few places.

  • Chatterbox5200

    Here are the votes from the Chatterbox5200 Jury…..

    12th – Lorna Simpson
    11th – Luke Friend
    10th – Miss Dynamix
    9th – Shelley Smith
    8th – Kingsland Road
    7th – Sam Callahan
    6th – Hannah Barrett
    5th – Abi Alton
    4th – Rough Copy
    3rd – Sam Bailey
    2nd – Tamera Foster
    1st – Nicholas McDonald

    I agree witha lot of the comments already made, and can see the first 4 acts eliminated not being a shock to anyone.

    Sam Callahan’s existing twitter following and general awareness amongst teen X Factor fans (having previously supported District3 and Union J) could be enough to see him last longer than some have initially thought.

    The amount of coverage given to Rough Copy, with their visa issues and the re-introduction of Kazeem, makes me feel that they are being lined up to fill gap in the market recently vacated JLS, without taking any attention away from the cash cow that is One Direction. I see them as top group, ahead of Kingland Road, who may be kept long enough to make the tour. THey have yet to be named individually, reducing the audience’s ability to relate to them, and seem as though they are trying too hard to be One Direction’s older brothers!

    I had originally placed Abi Alton lower, thinking that her style will not appeal to the wider audience, and that it would be very easy for her to be made to look boring/one trick pony, etc. However, I couldn’t ignore the regional split this year – with no Irish or Welsh representation, Nicholas representating Scotland, Abi (from a similar region to James Arthur and Amelia Lily) is the only other contestant from further north than Leicestershire (Sam Bailey).

    When picking the overall winner, there were question marks over each of my top 3:
    Sam – despite the make-over, do X Factor really want an Over to win, when a top 3 finish could be enough to sell albums?
    Tamera – will the public vote for her, especially outside the immediate demographic she appeals to, given the negative publicity, etc?
    Nicholas – does X Factor really need another Joe McElderry or Jai McDowell (BGT) that will vanish without a trace after the winner’s single and first album are out of the way?

    In the end, having swapped their places several times, I am tempted by the possibility that the pre-tournament favourite may once again be pipped at the post by the strong regional support?

  • Henry VIII

    My 12 plus reasons why none of them can win.

    12th place: Miss Dynamix
    Pregnant. Disabled. Terminate. (The group, not the embryo).

    11th place: Lorna Simpson
    Never heard of her.

    10th place: Luke Friend
    Dull, can’t sing.

    9th place: Abi Alton
    Thin voice, niche, one trick pony, as Nichole was instructed to keep reminding us.

    8th place: Kingsland Road
    Nowadays to start off with this style (blandness) you have to be 16 and cute.

    7th place: Shelley Smith
    Joke act.

    6th place: Rough Copy
    Their leader can’t work abroad, can’t tour. Another’s dad and cousins are doing time for burglary and murder respectively.

    5th place: Hannah Barrett
    Too ugly to be commercially viable in the USA. Or anywhere else.

    4th place: Sam Callahan
    Short, bland, uncommercial.

    3rd place: Sam Bailey
    Podgy, bland, uncommercial.

    2nd place: Nicholas McDonald
    Podgy, bland, uncommercial. But has the vote of the syphilitic hordes that Hadrian failed to exclude.

    1st place Tamera Foster
    Cold, distant, ruthless bully. Nichole and Mary J.B. both said “I don’t believe her”, that she made no connection. Nichole had on another occasion said to Tamera “You’re the only one I don’t connect with”. They’ve never sown such negative seeds with any TCO. Nichole also said on chatty man that TV viewers haven’t seen that she keeps forgetting lyrics.

    Still my only back because the others are even more hopeless.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    ’12th place: Miss Dynamix
    Pregnant. Disabled. Terminate. (The group, not the embryo).’

    Can’t stop chuckling at that – haven’t got to reading the rest of your piece yet!!

    Captures the thinking of the ruthless, corporate machine that is XF.

  • Jay

    Just for fun my 1-12:
    11) Dynamix
    10) Sam c
    9) Abi
    8) Kingsland
    6) Tamara
    5) Shelly
    4) Rough copy
    3) Sam b
    2) Hannah
    1) nick

    The surprises there being that Luke is probably better than we’ve been led to believe and Shelly doing a Maloney and flirting with the final but dropping short. Hannah will play the Jahmene role. Same script different actors.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Haven’t watched enough of XF to muster an informed overview but I’ll have a dash at this 1-13 (in reverse order) anyhow.

    13) Joseph Whelan – Hahahaha!

    12) (For)Lorna – Hadn’t seen or heard of her. But she’s not a secret love child of Homer’s. That shotgun story and pictures are way, way too much. She has to go immediately. Unless the producers are shit scared of her!!

    11) DynoRod – I guess that the pregnant member is unmarried? (Means nowt to me either way). With (For)Lorna and DynoRod on board, XF still wonder why Strictly is seen as a show the whole family can watch?
    Home and hosed within a fortnight.

    10) Luke Friend-of-knits – Remember him from the auditions. More a hair than a him. Literally overshadowed by his hair. Yawn.

    9) Abi my-look-is-as-constructed-as Alton-Towers – Never liked her from the get-go. Her nasal whine always got on my tits. Presents a style that even Phoebe from Friends would have found twee and affected.

    Jade Ellis was manoeuvred out at the same stage last year, as I recall. I definitely also recall taking either 8/1 or 10/1 for her to be outed off, following a tip on this site (I’ve forgotten who – could have been stoney or Andy).

    Struggling to think of a more unsuitable song for her than ‘Livin on a Prayer’. They’re already slow-puncturing her tyres, readying the wheels to come off.

    For week 4 maybe they”ll hand her a rap song.

    It seems to take a few weeks to clear the deadest of wood, so maybe the 4th week is the traditional time when XF focus their cross-hairs on bigger fish.

    8) Rough-as-fuck Copy – Holy crap! What are this gang doing on a ITV1 Saturday night entertainment show? If they and Lorna end up in the bottom two, perhaps they (and their relations) can re-enact Celebrity Deathmatch to see who is left standing.

    7) S(c)am Callahan – A better looking but worse singing version of Nic? Know nothing about him save from what I’ve read on this site, so bunged him in here.

    6) Shelly ‘Smelly’ Smith – Is she the token joke/novelty act this year. Haven’t seen or heard her. If she is the only fun act then they will have to push her and save her as they did when they put all their eggs in one basket with Rylan last year. ‘Smelly’ rhymes with Shelly. That’s my justification!

    5) Tamera Foster-ing a Bad Attitude – The true talent of the show (if not Abi), but I wonder if the angel dust messed her up too much. Get the Danyl vibe from her. Think XF have realised she is not worth it. Danyl (the true talent of his year in what was a strong year) finished 4th but I’ll stick her one place lower.

    4) Kingsland Road-ies – XF love to push a group. The other groups are tainted and finished, which leaves this non-descript bunch. The kings of ordinary. Ridiculous that they could finish as high as fourth but remember back only to last year and the whisker away Union J came to making the Final

    3) Hannah Ban-Her-Tears Barret – Jahmene MK2. Really liked her before, during and after her audition. But laughed out loud when she said something about becoming ‘The nation’s sweetheart’.Would have predicted 2nd for her but for the unprecedented…

    2) Sam shape-of-a-castle Bailey – In a skenky year like this one (they should recall Tulisa as a 5th judge to add the final, finishing touch, I think the nicer (read: blander) contestants will prosper and rise to the top (hence my predictions for 1st and 3rd place), but for their 10th anniversary series the XFPTB will want to push a “special” winner, an unprecedented winner.

    If Tamera was Plan A then Sam B must be Plan B. If Tamera was to win she would be wearing the XF crown, would represent the show. But who knows what future headlines she will be embroiled in. Her Wembley Arena song was a Whitney Houston number. That could be seen as a foreshadower in two distinct ways.

    XF ditched Tulisa because they knew of the media shit storms on the way.

    So, Plan B is the new Plan A. I’ve a feeling I’m confusing matters here by mentioning Plan B (he’s a real life rapper, ain’t he), but you know what I mean.

    Sam B is controllable and (arguably) an even unlikelier winner than Little Mix were.

    1) Nicholas one-Happy-Meal-too-many McDonald – Defualt winner. As I lengthily noted a while ago: Leon Jackson MK2.
    Sam B is pushed hard for the win but comes up just short of short Nic.

    Actually, I’ve talked myself into a switcheroo. I think Sam B is the one. She could be TNCO – The New Chosen One.

    So, I’ll switch Nic to 2nd and Sam B to 1st.

    2) Nic. M.

    1) Sam. B.

    Thank you.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Just taken the prediction I talked myself into with a win bet on Sam Bailey for the outright at 10/1.

      Have just realised I fancy Sam B for 1st; but figure Abi for 9th.

      I really should be jumping all over that match bet, where Sam B is 8/11 to finish higher than Abi.

      • Andy

        I flashed that match bet yesterday Guildo at 5/6.
        managed to get £540 on before they took the price down today.
        had to run around shops but should be worth it.
        8/11 still good value I feel.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Yes, I knew I’d seen someone on here wave the flag for the bet, recently.

          That 5/6 you got looks awesome!

          And after Sam B’s rendition of ‘The Power of Love’ versus Abi’s ‘Livin’ on a Prayer’ I estimate it will look even better.

      • Chris Bellis

        Well she’s 6/1 on Betfair now after her performance tonight. I knew she was being groomed. Whether that’s a good thing I don’t know. Well done Guildo (I hope, as I have money on her as well).

  • stoney

    Dont get to excited people mary burne did the same on the first live show in 2010 too. She may peak to early. I’m happy with proceedings thus far. I’m not even pissed off at nik being used so early tonight. Im looking at the bigger picture.

  • stoney

    Has anyone noticed how they are saving the best spots for people who might have troubled miss dynamix for first elimination. Brilliant 🙂

  • Boki

    I was really impressed by Nic, he was effortless and they are apparently scared of him after such comments. Sam B great too but that was expected anyway.

  • For me guys it would go like this

    1. Hannah Barret
    2. Nicholas Mcdonald
    3. Kingsland Road
    4. Rough copy
    5. Sam callahan
    6. Miss Dynamix
    7. Tamera Foster
    8. Abi Alton
    9. Sam Bailey
    10. Luke Friend
    11. Lorna Simpson
    12. Shelly Simpson

  • sorry guys but here is my order

    1st Sam Bailey
    2nd Nicholas McDonald
    3rd Rough copy
    4th Tamera Foster
    5th Luke Friend
    6th Hannah Barret
    7th Sam Callahan
    8th Abi Alton
    9th Kingsland road
    10th Miss Dynamix
    11th Shelly Smith
    12th Lorna Simpson

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