Eurovision 2013: Grand Final Preview

It’s here; after months of speculating. I wish I could tell you the fog has cleared, but tonight’s Eurovision is a fiendish puzzle. We have televote-friendly numbers that may struggle with juries, and vice versa. There’s a strong set of songs from the former Soviet bloc that look likely to reward each other, against a number of Nordic and other western entries that may well do the same. And most of the favourites are packed together in the favoured last third of the draw.

The announcement of the voting order – which is computer generated to ensure as close a finish as possible based on the stats from the already-compiled jury scores – didn’t help matters. Last year, the lack of the Scandi mafia until later on made it clear; the number of theories that attached themselves to last night’s revelation only serves to show there is no obvious theory this time around.

My betting amounts today will be paltry by my own standards. I’m not risking much of my San Marino winnings and instead accepting a smaller overall profit and return than usual. Nonetheless, here’s how I view it tonight.

Let’s start with odds-on favourite Denmark. It has winner’s staging, a commanding central performance and a great draw; it’s the most obvious winner. But at a shorter price than Loreen even after last year’s voting order virtually spelt out in easy-to-decipher code S-W-E-D-E-N, it can’t be seen as any value.

I’ve always had my fears about the appeal of second-favourite Norway to a wider Eurovision audience. It’s one of my favourite entries this year, it has a wonderful draw and I haven’t doubted Margaret Berger’s ability on stage all week. But I don’t think that’s enough in itself.

Third-favourite Ukraine has long been dismissed in these quarters. That’s because ‘Gravity’ is an unstructured mess of a song and it turned out the staging is ridiculous. Yet once over these things, I started seeing the attraction of it, which mainly lies in Zlata Ognevich. She could sell manure and that’s pretty much what she’s doing here.

From this point onwards we get the televote / jury discrepancies. Televote-friendly numbers from Azerbaijan, Greece, Finland and Germany may not have been treated so well by jurors. Jury bait from Italy, Netherlands and Iceland may struggle for greater traction with the viewing public. Russia and Georgia offer two formulaic eastern bloc ballads as do Moldova.

The last-named along with Finland, Germany and Netherlands seems the most likely among the first half to hit the top ten. On that subject, in the last ten years, 46 top ten finishes have come from the first half of the draw, 54 from the second half. The biggest outliers were 2006 (where none of the first 9 were in the top ten and 8 were from the second half) and 2007 (7 from the second half). In the four finals since juries were reintroduced, it’s 21-19 in favour of the first half.

Of course we’ve never had a situation whereby the prodcuers decided the running order, and in an apparent desire not to offend any of the market leaders, packed them together towards the end of the draw. Given that Hungary and Iceland are jokers in the pack that hold their own even in this exalted company, there is an unprecedented run of appealing entries, from 17 to 25.

In the last ten years, there have been two instances of four countries top-tenning together in the running order (17-20 in 2012 and 21-24 in 2007), and a further eight of three countries top-tenning together. You’d have to assume on these trends that at the very least one of these eight is falling short. Yet, having just watched the final dress rehearsal, they almost all put in top ten performances.

On which subject my top ten suggestion at a value price is Iceland to get there at 7/2 with Coral and better on Betfair. I first checked the odds about this as Eythor sung his heart out in the last rehearsal before the semi-final. It’s the best-staged, most natural big Eurovision ballad of the night, and Eythor is the standout male vocalist with a bit of Thor-meets-Russell Crowe sex appeal. Turns out I think he is this year’s Ott Lepland after all. Only hairier.

I always fear how geographically isolated Iceland is in Eurovision voting terms, and this is a very Icelandic package. It’s also unfortunate to be following ‘Only Teardrops’ and the rapture that will be greeted with by tonight’s audience. I’m hoping that jury love and coming across as a less contrived package will be enough.

Further down the scoreboard, every time Spain rehearse I check out their last place odds and place a small bet. You can still get 15/8 with Boylesports. I also tend to look at the double-digit prices being offered on Belarus, the UK and Sweden for last place too, but satisfy myself by laying them at prohibitively short prices in the top ten market instead.

Who do I think will fill the top three places tonight? I’d go with Denmark followed by Azerbaijan and Greece. Denmark doesn’t offer any value, but despite the voting strength and televote appeal of the the other two, their jury scores may well scupper any chance of victory. Unfortunately, bookmakers are being rather stingy with their each-way terms too. I’m leaving the outright market alone for these reasons.

I wish you all good luck tonight. Do feel free to post your podium predictions, as well as any other bets you have found below.

61 comments to Eurovision 2013: Grand Final Preview

  • Daniel thanks you for everything and good luck to you! I also think denmark, azerbaijan and greece will be top5 and belarus bottom 5.

  • Tim B

    Thank you Daniel. Best of luck to everyone!!!!

    My top 4 in order is 1. Denmark 2. Azerbaijan, 3. Russia and 4. Norway

  • Russia 6th or worse at 1.72 appeals then?

  • Alex

    Hi Daniel,

    Huge thanks for the past weeks of coverage. I have two main opinions on tonight’s show to share:

    The first half of the draw is nowhere near the curse that draw hawks would go with this year. Usually I’m quite the hawk myself, but the way all the favourites are crammed together at the end means that Finland in 4 and Russia at 10 can really stand out from their near neighbours early on

    Secondly Greece. I have mentioned them before; and they feel astonishing value across the board tonight. They have:

    A great draw (accepting the above; I’m suggesting there that the first half isn’t as bad as usual, not that it isn’t an advantage at all)
    A song/act that is different to everything else in the final
    Standard huge televote for them
    Balkan countries need something to vote for – the closest to Croatian/Balkan music is Greece’s entry
    It is sung in Greek, which is a positive for local voting (and a negative elsewhere) but the chorus is in English – which feels massive for popularity around the rest of Europe
    They are a bunch of good looking lads and an older man with a rather stunning ‘tache

    What is not to like there? I make them about 8/1 to win the contest, possibly shorter.

    Just need Denmark to fall over on stage now…

    • Ben Cook

      I agree that Greece will really benefit from the Balkan Blackout but I’d be worried about how the new voting system will affect them. Jurors that really don’t like it could really bring it down. Still think it’s good enough to go top 10 though.

  • Donald

    Thanks Daniel, best of luck to all tonight,

    Denmark no value, and I not so sure, Greece each way at the odds and Ireland also. It will be interesting to see how the final views, that could have an influence on later bets.

  • andre

    fascinating as ever. looking at the voting order does it not seem that denmark would need a decent lead after 30 countries have voted in order to hold on?

  • Argyle_mikey

    Denmark, Ukraine and Greece are my 1-2-3. Great blog, enjoy tonight everyone.


  • john kef

    My estimation about the Final

    1. Denmark ( i must be the first one mentioning that! hehe)
    2. Azerbaijan or Ukraine ( 60%-40% chances Azerbaijan whoever loses this one comes 4th cause of the inner ex-soviet block voting)
    3. Norway
    4. Ukraine or Azerbaijan
    5. Greece ( I’ll post you later my birthday cake from tonight’s party)
    6. Georgia
    7. Germany
    8. Russia
    9. Netherlands
    10. Moldova
    11-15 Finland-Estonia-Hungary-Italy-Sweden
    16-20 Lithuania-France-Armenia-Iceland-Ireland
    21-25 Belarus-Malta-Romania-UK-Belgium
    26 Spain

    My main bets for tonight:
    Denmark @3.00 (placed a long time ago)
    Azerbaijan Top 4 (a small bet each way also)
    Ukraine Top 4
    Greece 5th-10th ( a small bet @41.00 each way)
    Germany Top10
    Georgia Top10
    Netherlands Top10
    Moldova Top10
    Spain Last

    Thank you Daniel for all the useful infos and reports and thank you guys for all those comments and opinions that made me wiser. I wish you all the best for tonight!

  • Justin

    Thanks Daniel, superb coverage and all the best for tonight.

    My top 3 are:

    1. Denmark
    2. Azerbaijan
    3. Ukraine

  • tpfkar

    Greece are my shock non top 10 choice, but I haven’t dared to put money on as it’s so against Market sentiment. it’s a mess and not as much fun as several others. And we all expected them top 10 last year…

    Denmark to win just from Azerbaijan, then I’ll go for a surprise choice of Netherlands third.

  • Chiggs

    Hi Daniel,

    We met briefly at the London party (Tim’s friend). This is the first year I’ve followed Eurovision and first time I’ve bet on the show. Your articles have been great, thanks.

    My top 3 is Den, Azer, Nor. I also have positive views on Holland, Georgia and Germany which is reflected in my trades in the top x and match bet markets.

    There’s one country in particular I’m a little unsure about and that’s Italy. How do you rate Marco’s top 10 chances?

  • Thanks for your write-up, Daniel! Have been waiting eagerly – to no avail, as I had your tips as large positions already 😉

    One thing I’d be very interested to hear about is your view on the jury winner. Although I’m a believer in the Danish victory tonight, I’m less convinced that they will win the jury vote. Candidates for a remarkable jury score would in my eyes be Italy, the Netherlands and possibly France. What’s your assessment of their chances of getting some jury love?

    • I should note that I’ve obviously seen your mention of Italy, the Netherlands and Iceland in this respect, but would be really curious to hear you elaborate some – given time of course 🙂

    • The jury still see the show in order, so it would be tough for France to win the Jury score Squall. With Italys strange performace last night, I would think its less likely to win the jury scores, but would still have done just fine

      • On the other hand, Italy 2011 performed 12th and still absolutely crushed the jury vote. I think juries are less vulnerable to the influence of the running order, as they concentrate throughout and need to rank every one song at the end anyway (leaving none forgotten). That being said however, I do agree the draw is a negative or France – big one with televotes, smaller one with juries.

        • Ben Cook

          Marco’s performances really haven’t been that good though. And they came 17th on the televote last year with a much more accessible song. I don’t see how Italy can possibly be in the running, even though I love the song.

    • Daniel

      It’s the most pertinent question per the show, squall. You know how frustrated I can be by the jury scores. This was one reason why I didn’t overplay Marco Mengoni’s slightly eccentric poses last night. For all we know, juries could see this as artistry in action.

      Best vocals of the jury rehearsal? Estonia, Netherlands and Iceland. My money would be on Anouk winning it overall given the rather obvious Eurovision songs offered by the other two.

      • Anouk winning overall jury score sounds plausible to me, too. As you might remember I didn’t particularly like the song at the start, but was very much impressed by the haunting impression Anouk’s performance gave, together with the staging. Now, whether televoters in loud living rooms a Saturday evening will take notice, is the big question mark…

        Thanks again for a great coverage, Daniel!

  • Kablamoh

    I think a lay bet of Denmark after the French vote might give a holiday paying return.

  • Daisy

    My opinion is top 3/5 is Azerbaijan – well they don’t let us down since entering the completion and are well placed and getting them @25/1 2wks back or 16/1 now is goods odds. Denmark I will say have it barely though – wont be a white wash as over last 4years public haven’t backed them as much as the jury. I personally think Iceland will be the dark horse the Italy of completion – no public/ by loved by jury @200/1 earlier it’s worth a gamble sure Italy came in at same price. Norway is my Lena and think it will let me down. Sweden I think might surprise although host countries don’t do we’ll they have in last 4 years been well back by public and jury. Armenia top 10 always more support by public than jury and think they’ll get there. I think Greece is the Russian granny’s of the comp will end up outside the top3.

  • I have put my bets forward on the previous post so won’t waste space going over them again, good to see I’m with Daniel on a couple of them!
    My top 5 final standing prediction is
    1. Denmark
    2. Russia
    3. Azerbijan
    4. Greece
    5. Georgia

  • Boki

    It’s a messy year and that reflects on my bets, most of them last minute choices with complete reversed opinion from before – that’s not so good but that reflects the year and stakes are smaller. Only ones that remained are high position of Azer and NL top10. Now I see Ukraine highest among rest of the Russians so layed Russia/Georgia in various markets. Good luck to all and many thanks to Daniel for amazing coverage.

  • Ben Cook

    OK will go for a top 26 prediction.

    01 Denmark
    02 Azerbaijan
    03 Georgia
    04 Finland
    05 Ukraine
    06 Germany
    07 Norway
    08 Greece
    09 Russia
    10 Iceland
    11 Netherlands
    12 Italy
    13 Romania
    14 Sweden
    15 United Kingdom
    16 Moldova
    17 Ireland
    18 Malta
    19 Armenia
    20 Estonia
    21 Belgium
    22 Hungary
    23 France
    24 Lithuania
    25 Belarus
    26 Spain

    Good luck everyone tonight!

  • Simon "le chat"

    Evening Ladies and Gents
    Firstly thanks to Daniel for a fabulous write up as always. Iceland could well be a steal at 7/2 and I’ve had a tenner on it.
    HOWEVER I reckon Denmark are a sitting duck, I really do and anyone taking odds on in a competition like this is crazy or brave or both. 4/7? I don’t think so.

    I reckon Azerbaijan are nailed on for top three and I reckon they have a really, really good chance of winning. The song is good, the singer Farrid is ridiculously handsome, the staging with that bloke in the box is very, very memorable and the song has had about 40% more huts on YouTube than any other contestant. Think of the population of the Soviet block running to their patriotic telephones.
    This is a really top classy package. The expression is “help yourselves ” and I am already counting my money!

  • hansenus

    Hello everyone. Thanks Daniel for your contribution and help, you are amazing: number 1. I still remember myself waiting for your tweet on wednesday of the Cascada draw 😉 you are great.
    I was not much into semifinals but i have hold all my effort for the final and this is how i see things:

    TOP 5:
    1 DENMARK: stolen show. Still i am not gonna bet on it.
    2 UKRAINE: calling for votes and strong campaign support can´t lay down on the table. So you gonna be pretty sure it will be there.
    3 GREECE: This has raised incredibly into me from watching the semifinal. It has all the ingredients for a hot spot this year including the the wipeout of the balkans in the semifinals. I surely dont see it so much damaged by the juries but rather getting already a top 10 spot in there.
    4 ITALY: Based on what we saw two years ago, Marco popularity, the juries appeal for him and how some lower level similar stuff songs like Lithuania classified for the final i expect huge huge love for him.
    5 Netherlands: The special one, loved by juries. Will get enough support not to go far fron the top spots because this song has her own strong followers/supporters.

    Note also that Ukraine, Greece and Netherlands have shown incredible fan support including press conference.

    Talking about favourites: Norway i see it overrated and i really cant believe two scandinavian being on the top places because of the vote spread. Azerbaijan, Russia and Georgia are ok but they are not special. They dont transmit the real love of the ones in my top 5. They will kill each other in vote supports and after all, they will be all strongly damaged by ukranian thunder. So this is the reason my top 5 is as described before.

    My other country value is Moldova as stated before. It is the formula that really has success in Eurovision. Has all ingredients for high spot. It is for me the Albania 2012 but even better than that.

    So all in all here are all my bets at equal stakes:

    Ukraine top 4 odds 2.2 (sportingbet)
    Ukraine to Norway odds 2.4 (sportingbet)
    Moldova to Malta odds 1.65 (yesterday)
    Moldova top 10 odds 3 (betfair)
    Greece top 4 odds 5.87 (yesterday pinnacle)
    Italy top 4 odds 5.5 (some time ago bwin)
    Netherlands top 4 odds 6 (betvictor yesterday)
    Moldova top 5 odds 16 (betfair)
    Moldova to Germany odds2.25 (sportingbet)
    Netherlands best western country odds 2.4 (sportingbet)
    Italy to Georgia odds 2.2 (sportingbet)
    Italy top big 5 odds 1.8 (boylesports)
    Greece to Germany odds 1.65 (bwin)
    Greece top 3 odds 7.4 (betfair)
    Netherlands to Germany odds 1.9 (betfair)

    That makes in total 15 bets and i am hoping for global earnings of 50%!!! Maybe too optimistic? Well, we will see.

    Best of luck and enjoy the show

    • My gut feeling is I that your analysis is one of the most convincing I have read anywhere. Straight to the sound.
      Fabulous points about Ukraine, Greece and the Netherlands, in particular.
      Hats off to you, and I wish you well (but hope you’re wrong!).

      • hansenus

        A profit around 10%. Still a bit disappointed. Greece could have made that top 5 and give me the target. Still could have been worse too. I learnt from this year that the best you can take when you study a lot one market and have a good knowledge of it is to play in the h2h. They can give you good reward and value bets as it happened for me this year.

  • andre

    why is no one focusing on the clear suppression of an eastern bloc song in the voting order?!

  • Montell

    I like how you set the odds in the market, Daniel 😀
    Odds for Sweden not to be in TOP-10 were getting lower and lower every day this week. And now I’m not surprised you said you’ve been laying Sweden.

    Anyway, I wanted to thank you for your great work. It’s been a really difficult year. Can’t wait to see how everything will come out. Good luck to everyone and have fun this evening.

  • FANTASTIC NEWS! The Betsfactor Armchair Guide has just gone live. Lots of bets and silly observations about the staging.

    I agree with your line about televote vs Jury bait Daniel – it makes it very very tricky.

    I have a top 2 of Denmark and then Ukraine; and then a messy pot of 11 others that I feel could fill 3rd – 13th. I’m afraid Finland’s not in that pot (even though I love it), although Sweden is…

    I’ve spent ages writing this pointless article – so do read it whilst you’re watching tonight! I will now read the rest of the analysis on here which I’ve missed all afternoon and stick my oar in a few times…!

  • First off, Daniel, thank you ever so much for your wonderful coverage this year. It’s very much appreciated. Please excuse me copy-pasting this write up from over at Entertainment Odds but I’d like everybody to be able to take what I can offer into account.


    I am a virgin to serious ESC betting although did win a pleasant £190 on Azerbaijan in 2011 on little more than the visual impact the pyro curtain had on me during the semi-final, and gut instinct that it was going to turn out to be the best song after all.

    My logic is going to stand apart from most other people’s, but in my experience – the top 5 each year (quite possibly in the entire history of ESC but don’t quote me) have mostly consisted of the closest possible thing to a pan-European hit, performed well. This holds up under the now “old” 50/50 system with song and sometimes staging overcoming poor or even non-existent (Hadise) vocals. The key here is being able to tell the hits apart from trash. Easier for some, but I believe I have a good ear for it.

    There are some exceptions of course, and I label these broadly as classy/timeless/high-calibre songs such as It’s My Time, Madness Of Love, Nije Ljubav Stvar, Molitva, Suus etc. and Birds could potentially be added to that list tonight.

    The other exception being what I describe as accessible novelties. Accessible being the key word there so as to separate the likes of Verka, Lordi and the Babushki from Kresiraadio and

    Coming back round to the “hits” which by far are the most common occurrence in the top 5 since at least since 2008, I must stress that this does not mean the songs have been or actually will go on to be pan-European chart hits, because we all know this doesn’t happen very often. It is the worthiness that counts. It’s about taking a song outside of the Eurovision bubble and seeing if it would survive in the real world.

    Top fives include Believe, Shady Lady, (played on Capital.FM once in the run up to Belgrade!) Secret Combination, Qele Qele, Hold On Be Strong… Fairytale, (baffles me really but it did make an impact on the European charts so I can only bow out there,) Is It True? (still a regular on various Scandinavian radio stations), Always, (made an impact in Poland of all places!) Dum Tek Tek (released in Japan!!)… Satellite, We Could Be The Same, Playing With Fire, In A Moment Like This (a bit of an anomaly, will come to that later,) Drip Drop, even Me and My Guitar… Running Scared (can easily see that as one of those songs played over the season finale of an American drama, those are always hits!) Popular, Angel, (radio-friendly enough but greatly helped by the staging,) New Tomorrow, (and not forgetting I Can, 5th on televotes) Euphoria, When The Music Dies, (first thought when I listened to it was Christina Aguilera,)… so really the evidence is here.

    Maybe some of you can’t see any of these songs standing up in their own right on radio stations across Europe, even if they’re just regional hits with some broader appeal that don’t get picked up. I certainly can see that people are going for the closest possible thing to the familiar current pop sound.

    Now the anomalies, a few have come up. Schmaltz tends to be one. In A Moment Like This as mentioned earlier had the very familiar rings of The Police and Tina Turner which may have helped matters, and if it was an 80s song, it certainly represented what was great about 80s pop, unlike That Sounds Good To Me. This is further evidenced with Running Scared which at the time I called a calculated, younger, fresher approach to the very idea of In A Moment Like This, which if you remember, was one place above Drip Drop in a year Azerbaijan were sure it had sewn up. Waterfall is another big schmaltzy number very much in the same 80s power ballad vein that I am expecting to do just as well on the same grounds tonight.

    The other anomaly is tricky to spot. Duds. Songs that sound like perfectly performed radio fare and end up dropping like a stone because frankly they’re just a bit dull, or very poorly performed on the night. Should’ve Known Better and In Love For A While and Stay ring as examples here.

    So with my theory which seems to stand up all laid out here… some of you already know what I think but I’ll make my case anyway. This is a year full of Eurovision-by-numbers songs and a lot of ballads, very few of which have any radio appeal. The only stand out songs for me here which have that chart-worthiness, radio-friendliness and the ability to appeal beyond their own country or bloc, and are also performed well enough are those from Finland, Azerbaijan, Belgium, and to a lesser extent, Russia, Denmark, Norway, the UK, Lithuania and Ireland.

    No, I’m not saying all these countries are going to do very well tonight as some of them won’t be performed as well as their studio versions promise.

    But ultimately, I turn on BBC Radio 1, I know what I always hear these days, and I know whatever makes it into our charts from the continent is one thing. Dance music. Dance music with some R&B and hip-hop thrown in here and there is the undisputed king of the European charts in most countries right now.

    With a world-famous act like Cascada, a song that is already getting some airplay around the continent, including here in the UK, a mind blowing live vocal in just about every performance I’ve seen and heard, (including over escXtra’s stream for the jury final last night Rob, apart from a backing singer at the start I am not sure what you mean by mediocre, she sounded great to me,) and ultimately, a production quality on the music and blatant current commercial relevance, I just can’t see anything realistically beating Germany.

    The draw has cut her chances somewhat, including an irritating #18 for Denmark since all winners have come from positions 17-24 since 2005, but she is part of the tentpole that SVT appear to have set up with the running order so is not out of the game. The Babushki finished a mere ten points behind Loreen last year on televoting alone from position #6, and both Iceland and Azerbaijan did very well for themselves in 2009 from positions 7 and 11 respectively, so I maintain that anything is possible.

    Denmark is dressed to win, but the song doesn’t excite me. In the first semi final when I saw it on TV for the first time, I thought it looked more like a winner than it sounded like one. When it was chosen in the Danish MGP, the general consensus was, as someone else said, that something better would come along. Denmark became fan favourite by default with the sense that nothing did. I also have a theory that with Glorious being accused of plagiarising Euphoria and failing to capture the imagination of the fan bubble by being so blatantly mainstream and commonplace, people have turned a blind eye to it. I remember one fan on ESCtoday writing after Lena’s victory in 2010 “how did that win?? It’s so normal!” Hardly a consensus but an eye-opener for me.

    I have covered my many bets on Germany to take it home tonight with a top 10 bet to refund them all if they don’t. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I just really don’t think I am.

    Good luck to everyone tonight, and whatever happens, may the best song win.

  • Daisy

    Why is France 3rd in the press vote?

  • tiger

    Because France is an incredible song. I will be very suprised if it wasnt top with the jury.

  • chewy wesker

    Hi guys, top ten prediction as follows:

    Good luck to all at sofabet.

  • ChrisR

    I just have a sneaky feeling that it will not be Denmarks night. Call me a fool if you like, but I can see the Finland song going down well with both vote blocks, so my bets are lay the Denmark win, and get on Finland top 5

  • eurovicious

    Hi Daniel, thank you for your coverage as ever and enjoy your winnings. Hope you get to see something of Malmö before you leave, especially as the weather is so nice – it’s not the most attractive city but I do recommend the beach/pier, the area around the Turning Torso and the central area between the station and Stortorget.

  • tpfkar

    Good luck everyone. Interstingly Estonia won our straw poll of 10 people.

  • Chatterbox5200

    Thanks Daniel for all your advice. Managed to back Denmark a while ago at 11/1 and the straight forecast of Denmark/Azerbaijan at 9/1. Also topped up with Greece and Hungary to be in the Top 10.

    Shame that Iceland didn’t make the Top 10 for you.

  • stoney

    easy money for a ukraine top 4, even though most ridiculed it!

  • Ben Cook

    Well I got top 2 bang on and made a profit thanks to Azerbaijan but surprised to see my other bets Georgia, Germany and particularly Finland do so bad. Oh well! Good winner though didn’t make any money there

  • Warmest Congrats again Daniel – proving this is once again the TV betting site that stands out head and shoulders above the rest!

  • Very pleased 🙂 Best I could hope for.

    My two outright bets:

    Azerbaijan EW at 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1
    Norway EW at 17/2 and 7/1 and 6/1

    And Netherlands top Western European country at about 13/8 (as far as I recall).

    My semi final bets of Bulgaria to qualify and Georgia EW in Semi final 2 were clearly pants full of poo.

    Am amazed at the fluctuations in perceptions of the runners over the course of this ESC business. There’s a bonanza of factors and interpretations to consider. Mind boggling and bloody fascinating 🙂

  • tpfkar

    3 out of 5:
    Azerbaijan top 3 – yep
    Netherlands top 10 – yep
    Italy not top 4 – yep

    Iceland top 10
    Ukraine not top 3
    Both losers. Still comfortably green, thanks to everyone especially Daniel for making this site unmissable viewing. Party on!

  • Daniel


    The results of the semifinals have just been presented. Here are the scores that decided the 20 qualifiers for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest final:

    Semifinal 1

    167 Denmark
    156 Russia
    140 Ukraine
    095 Moldova
    075 Belgium
    075 Netherlands
    064 Belarus
    054 Ireland
    053 Lithuania
    052 Estonia

    046 Serbia
    041 Montenegro
    038 Croatia
    027 Austria
    011 Cyprus
    008 Slovenia

    Semifinal 2

    139 Azerbaijan
    121 Greece
    120 Norway
    118 Malta
    083 Romania
    072 Iceland
    069 Armenia
    066 Hungary
    064 Finland
    063 Georgia

    047 San Marino
    045 Bulgaria
    041 Switzerland
    040 Israel
    031 Albania
    028 Macedonia
    013 Latvia

  • Nugg

    Thank you for another year of great coverage Daniel, I am done now till XF, see you for a drink in DEC as usual 🙂

  • Thankfully after what seemed to be the worst contest of recent years for punters, the final didn’t have any major surprises. I hope you reached ur target daniel and thanks for everything, without this platform our knowledge would not be so trained and explored! and now, statistically, next year’s contest will be simpler 🙂 .

  • Montell

    This the third time I bet on Eurovision and finally I managed to win decent amount of money. Thanks to everyone and especially to Daniel. You do a great job. Daniel, how successful was this year to you?

    Personally I won most on match bets against Ireland which came last (always knew this was a rubbish) and on Greece top 10 which I knew should do well cause the song was one of its kind and cause there were no other Balkan countries to vote for except Greece. Great song by the way.

    Surprises this year:
    Hungary and Malta top 10, Georgia 10-nth in semi final.

    Glad Italy and Netherlands made Top 10. Those songs were very appealing. Everything else was more or less as predicted.

  • Thanks for this year, Daniel! Great work as always, and hope you did well result-wise.

  • Nick D.

    In profit for the year, all because of San Marino. Probably should have trusted the principle that Azerbaijan should always be backed!

    Results and running order look VERY strongly correlated this year, and GEO and especially IRE are a puzzle that needs solving. My best guess is that juries crucified slightly weak performances after a long run of obviously excellent ones, though both were narrow squeak qualifiers in the first place. Any kind of split results tht the EBU deign to provide will be much anticipated in that regard! 🙂

  • Daniel

    Thanks for all the kind messages, and glad most people seemed to have done well. It was a decent night for me, with Denmark’s revealed win in the first semi the icing on the cake. Whilst this year doesn’t reach the last few in terms of profits, I’m very happy with the outcome.

    I look forward to reporting it from Denmark next year!

  • Chris Bellis

    Thank you Daniel and all the other posters. Next year, God willing, I’ll leave my betting until the last minute. Only a little down this year due to last minute bets on Bwin on Italy 5-9 and Norway 1-4 place. Also Azerbaijan EW. But not the harvests of previous years. Congratulations to all the winners. I might also look at the Daily Mirror Eurovision correspondent, Ann Gripper’s tips, and go the opposite way. She had Spain to win.

  • John

    Great site Daniel and great effort for this years contest. Your advice is always balanced and rationale and you seem to rate very entry like me (pessimistically)! Which is an approach that serves me well too. Thanks again for another year

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