Eurovision 2013: The final draw

Here is the running order for the final. Comments below please!

  1. France
  2. Lithuania
  3. Moldova
  4. Finland
  5. Spain
  6. Belgium
  7. Estonia
  8. Belarus
  9. Malta
  10. Russia
  11. Germany
  12. Armenia
  13. The Netherlands
  14. Romania
  15. United Kingdom
  16. Sweden
  17. Hungary
  18. Denmark
  19. Iceland
  20. Azerbaijan
  21. Greece
  22. Ukraine
  23. Italy
  24. Norway
  25. Georgia
  26. Ireland

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74 comments to Eurovision 2013: The final draw

  • Opening with France? Erm.. ok.
    Happy with the draws of Germany and Netherlands. 2 gentler songs either side of Cascada, that will help matters for them! 15 for the UK is a surprise. 18 for Denmark is… well its not too late, but its a statistically high position to win from, or round about there anyway. Norway and Georgia are really charging in for a podium finish with that draw. Closing it with Ireland is nice but their vocals are really kinda strained.

  • Avitas

    Theory: NRK does not want to win (NRK has ties to Jon Olav Sand, Sand and Björkman say no more). EBU would not want to go back to Oslo already. Giving Norway such a great position means Norway hasn’t done nearly as well as anticipated thus not considered a threat to take the title. This is done in an effort to give Denmark a run for the money. Same could be said about AZ, UA and GR. Overanalyzing? What I can’t get my head around is Bonnie at 15 and not later.

  • john kef

    They ‘ve protected Bonnie by keeping her away from all the favourites that are placed between 18-25. If shes was squeezed in there she was hopeless

  • What I don’t get is why the market barely budged at this info. Only thing I saw really was a drop in Italy’s price – other have not really moved at all?

    • Chris Bellis

      To repeat, some unexpected simple presentation style male singers going through – Lithuania, Iceland, Hungary etc. Perhaps augurs well for Italy? One of the three best songs in the contest IMO plus most consistent singer? And everybody who has enjoyed a meal in an Italian restaurant has listened to Zucchero, even if they didn’t know who it was they were hearing. This bloke doesn’t half sound like Zucchero.

  • Nick D.

    Songs in Foreign at 1-3-5-7 and 17-19-21-23 suggests a fairly crude but honest attempt to mix up the running order, to me.

  • Madders

    Denmark have been sandwiched between two absolute no hopers for the title, whereas Russia & Germany next to each other, Norway & Georgia next to each other and Azerbaijan next to Greece (which I think is top 5 potential with televoters). We can safely say we are off to Copenhagen next year!

  • Chris Bellis

    Really disappointed at France position. They deserved to be later after so many disappointments. And I can kiss goodbye to my money I think. I couldn’t resist the odds. Shame as it’s one of the best performances and the only one that’s made me think I want to hear more of this singer

    • DashBerlin

      France are buried, personally for me it was a song that would do adequately with juries but Frances televote history isn’t good.
      The itunes charts show a surprising squirt for Hungary and Norway overnight, Denmark still looks like an unstoppable train, I wonder if they manage to mask it when the results are revealed

    • Chris. I like the French entry too and couldn’t resist odds either, so took a cheeky 125/1 e/way where Skybet are offering first 4 places. Just a little interesting side bet to my main choice. You never know. Good luck!!

  • trollgirl

    plus denmark charts in twice as many places as the next best . Yes, I think we can bottle the result. I feel the only one that could have given denmark a run for their money would have been Anouk, if they traded running places with emmelie.
    But I have a feeling the running order draw will be back next year. It doesnt show too much sense or fairness, and this in a scandi country. Imagine if a slightly corrupt balkan or caucasus won what would happen.

    • Chris Bellis

      Good point trollgirl. Corrupt Balkan and Caucasus states also tend to influence who and what goes through in the first place eg Belarus and Bulgaria changing the pre-qualifying songs on some pretext or other. Didn’t work out well for them though. Oh, just forgot – none of us had a say in who or what went from the UK.

  • meletis

    Finnaly the “fair” and “knowledge” sweedish producers took care of theirselves and not for EVERY song! 14-Romania and 15-UK is not the best beggining for the show, it seems to me like an intro for their song! (sorry but i love Bonnie!)

  • Simon "le chat"

    I am more than happy with Azerbaijan at 20 so are the other people who have backed them because the price has crashed overnight. I’m slightly worried they are followed by Greece which is a great stage act but happy with my 20/1 from Ladbrokes two days ago. I think anyone taking odds on the favs are start raving mad.

  • This is exactly why I think manually setting the draw was a very bad idea… it’s not that I personally believe the conspiracy theories, but people will ALWAYS find a reason to think themselves mistreated. There will simply be massive discontent, regardless of how the draw is set.

  • Simon "le chat"

    Powerful form guide in the last 6 year winners draw position

    2012: 17

    2011: 19

    2010: 22

    2009: 20

    2008: 24

    2007: 17

  • Alen

    Denmark will truly standout after quiet Hungary. Plus other favorites (Italy, Azerbaijan, Norway and Georgia) are left at the end to battle to death while people already made up their mind that Denmark is their winner.

    Boring Armenia before Netherlands followed by the overthetop Romania means either a) Netherlands didn’t do as good and needs a good contrast again to stand out ooor b) it diid good and therefore they use the same tactic 🙂

    Putting Denmark quite “early” on probably means they are very confiddent they will win so they put some favorites later on in hopes it would end up being a tighter result. Plus they have to clean all the confetti and probably will go to a commercial break right after.

    Putting visually stunnings Moldova and Finland next to each other (plus that early) tells me they both did TOO good in their semis.

    I wonder where the first commercial break will be? Belarus? Malta? Russia? If it’s after Russia its quite good news for Germany.

    • Montell

      Daniel mentioned that those who decided final running order didn’t know semi final results so I guess you can’t really tell that Moldova and Finland were so good.

      • Alen

        Actually it was confirmed at the press conference that dear EBU boss Jan Ola Sand does know the result and SVT has to decide but EBU has to approve so he could have said i.e. “We should move Moldova forward so we have a dramatic ballad in the begining” (when in fact he just doesn’t want to risk Moldova winning when it maybe came 2nd in Semi1).

  • meletis

    Bonnie’s Believe in me with red and orange colours, with half-speed in rythm and in G-major makes a wonderfull intro to Sweedish You.
    But for Bonnieis very bad position 15.
    Now i don’t believe in her.

    • To me it’s now quite obvious we have two conspirators conspiring against each other: on the one hand, the one who want Robin to do well, and has put Bonnie’s red/orange colors before his entry. On the other hand, the one who deviously wants to destroy Robin, and therefore gave him the death kiss through the black/red backdrop!

      Who will emerge victorious? Exciting!

  • AlisonR

    Didn’t see the first semi but rated Romania, Finland and Greece from the second. They had memorability factor, which you need in a field of 26. Most of the rest were a bit “meh”. Hungary were worst for me – I wanted Albania to make it instead.
    Romania are 200/1 – I can’t believe that. Surely they will get a lot of the vote from the south east corner, plus from others like me who love the OTT – ness? Got to be top 5 at least. Doesn’t bode well for Bonnie, who follows immediately afterwards.

    • eurovicious

      I’d have Romania down to do about as well as Albania 2009 or Moldova 2010.

      • Chris Bellis

        Those were very forgettable ( at least I had forgotten them). I don’t think Romania’s performance is forgettable. I’d rank him with the Su Pollard lookalike from Ukraine in 2007, Verka whatever his name was. Not good, but not forgettable. And that one did surprisingly well. So if it’s true that Romania are 200/1, that’s going to be my next pick for top ten.

    • Chris Bellis

      Just checked and Romania are 19/4 for a top ten place. 50/1 for an outright win with Ladbrokes. Somebody must be reading this stuff. Not good value IMO.

  • eurovicious

    I hate the fact we have a producer-determined running order.

  • DashBerlin

    The Value will be in top 10 finish for countries drawn in the first half. 7 of the 9 odds on top 10 countries are in the 2nd half, I would think that would be unlikely

    • DashBerlin

      I also realise that I typed that out very badly

    • john kef

      Remember Athens 2006. Ok the system was different and there was only 1 semifinal, but in in the first half there were only 2 top10 spots
      10. Russia- 2nd place
      12.Romania- 4th place

      My point is that i can’t see a country from the first half sneaking in the Top 10 apart from Germany-Netherlands-Russia even though i wish the best for Moldova and France

      • eurovicious

        2006 was televote only though, and had that notoriously dreadful opening stretch of automatic qualifiers. In 2009 the top 10 was evenly spread.

  • eurovicious

    Are my tastes too fuddy-duddy or why is Georgia still so far out in the market?

    • Chris Bellis

      Perhaps the comedians’ regular references to “boy/girl duos” when the point of the joke is that they are anything but boys and girls? I’m ancient but I listen to young people’s chatter and that’s one of the things they take the p*** out of. Maybe Nodi & co are too old fashioned even for Eurovision? I personally like it but I’ve already lost a shed-load on my predictions so I clearly shouldn’t be taken seriously.

    • Boki

      I had an impression that they were off-key on several places, very unreliable performance, will have to re-watch it.

      • Justin

        Boki, agreed. Really disappointing from Nodi and Sophie. Felt they were getting flatter and flatter the longer the song went on and in the end were trying to shout their way out of it.

        Had them down as definite top 10 but will wait for final jury rehearsal and Daniel’s comments now.

    • DashBerlin

      I assume its the vocals, its been noticeably out. The reason I conclude for this, is when they both sing the high note WATERFAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLL, on the studio version, the vocals can be tuned to sound so well together. When they sing it live it does not sound like they are singing the same note, which comes accross badly. My friends loved it until the notes at the end, when they just said, such a shame

  • tpfkar

    Not a great day for democracy, after the UK just announcing it’s entry we have a manufactured draw. Hopefully first and last time.

    I was thinking Estonia top 10 and lay Ukraine top 3- but slamming the brakes on both after that draw. The first 9 songs risk being a warm-up for the others. Not convinced that Denmark will walk it due to two factors:
    1-what happens to the Balkan vote after all the Yugoslav entries have been sent packing?
    2-all the credible win contenders performing after Denmark who can make the most of any weak performance of Teardrops.
    So I’ll likely avoid the outright Market as too risky and go for places.

    • eurovicious

      If you can live with the risk, I’d still lay Ukraine top 3 if I were you. It’s shite and there are much stronger entries (musically and visually) with a late draw – Georgia, Azerbaijan.

      I would have said Bulgaria for the Balkan vote, but so much for that. Viewing figures will be down a lot.

      I’m also not convinced on Denmark. It is too short. Others are too long.

  • Nick D.

    I keep thinking about where the Balkan votes are going. The affinity taste and the draw and the potential for one jury member to kill fun… it’s a perfect storm for Italy. Could be on the cusp of a top 10 tally without needing to look beyond its immediate environs and then who knows?

    • Chris Bellis

      I hope you’re right as I’ve bet the farm on a top 5 place for Italy. As I said earlier, every Italian restaurant throughout the world plays Zucchero all the time. So even if people don’t know who he is, this Zucchero soundalike will chime in with the televoters, and the quality of the song and singer will chime with the juries. Hope I’m right with this as I was wrong with Croatia to qualify.

  • Boki

    I guess I’m in the minority here but it seems to me they did a pretty good job with the running order.

  • Hercc

    Yeah, I like the running order, too!
    And I am very happy about Anouks position.
    Do you think “Birds” can grab Balkanese Votes? (Comparable with the Jelko-Joksimovic-Stuff?!)?

    • DashBerlin

      I wonder if any of the balkans might be Jury only with not enough interest in televotes to meet the required numbers

    • Boki

      Zeljko is a Balkan ‘star’ with his ‘ethno touch’ songs and Anouk is a nobody there, so they are incomparable. The votes she might get there would be only if people like it of course, and if you look to the Big poll 2013 (no. 13 is Balkan big poll – have no idea where this comes from to be honest) she is 11th there.

    • Alen

      No way. Balkan won’t vote for Birds, sorry. We don’t listen to that kind of music there.

      I love it personally but for example my bf who is serbian hates it and finds it boring without any drama.

  • Where does the ad break(s) come?

  • Ben Cook

    Do the SVT producers know the semi-final results? My understanding was that they don’t, but Jon Ola Sand does – he only “audits” the running order though, so we don’t even know if he asked for any changes.

    I suspect Denmark are going to win regardless, but hopefully putting quite a few contenders after them might help it be slightly closer than it would have been. Would be nice if we could be none the wiser until the half-way point, a la 2011.

    I have each-way bets on Finland, Germany, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Hopefully I will at least make a small profit out of that! I was particularly disappointed Finland drew first half, but looking at that order, it’s surrounded by complete no-hopers and really could stand out from 4th.

  • eurovicious

    Having a laughing fit right now and have to share… I just got an email from Betvictor to say they’ve retroactively cancelled my bets from last night, despite allowing me to place them at the time, because I live in Germany. However, a lot of that was the Finland lay, so my winnings have actually gone up. Now that’s the luck of the Irish.

  • hansenus

    Great Daniel yesterday!!!!! You impressed me yesterday night.

    My first tip and strong bet for the final: Netherlands top western country at 2.4 in sportingbet. Only opponents are UK, Ireland, France and Belgium

    • eurovicious

      Ireland has a very good slot (so does one of the dancers, I hear) but we can likely expect it to do the “jury drop”. As such, that’s not an unreasonable bet. Anouk still stands out as a island of serenity and sheer class.

      • Ron

        It’s a decent position for Ireland but Ryan really needs to step up to the plate in both the jury final and final. He was below par in the semi and didn’t nail the performance (he was reportedly better in the jury final the previous evening, and definitely sang better in the earlier rehearsals).

        I think Denmark will run away with the thing going by their iTunes showing.

        • hansenus

          Ireland looks and sounds to me like typical every year failure which will be near the bottom of the table. Same for all the others listed in Sportingbet bet. I believe Anouk will do very good (ranking 4-8 more or less) but even if she would struggle and end up being around the middle of the table, i strongly believe the bet would still go ahead as i see all the rest of countries very near the bottom

  • Johnny Roastbeef

    Hi Dan! I usually back your main outright bet every year. I know that you like to wait to publish it until you are done pouring in money which is understandable as your many readers would crash the odds for you otherwise since you are such a respected authority in the ESC bubble! 🙂

    Is it too soon for you to publish your main outright bet for 2013 yet? Is it Denmark?

    Best regards,

    Long time reader Johnny

    • Daniel

      Hi Johnny, you are being too kind – I mean that literally rather than just as a polite response. I have to watch today’s two rehearsals first at least. The cards have been reshuffled and we have to see how they come out of that.

      As usual, I will write a quickfire summary of this afternoon’s initial dress rehearsal, the first opportunity to see them in this order; then tweet the crucial jury dress rehearsal this evening.

  • meletis

    The running order is perfect except UK!
    Bonnie was so unlucky, because all the other slow songs (Iceland, Hungary, Azerbaizan, Italy, Georgia) are perfomed by male singers (looking and singing) and the producers decide to destroy Bonnie.
    Her running order is the only bad.

  • tpfkar

    This video is really useful:

    It shows rehearsal footage of the 26 acts in Saturday’s order.
    My thoughts from it:
    1-Moldova and Finland stand out early. They are both helped by being next to each other.
    2-Malta and Russia then Have the opposite issue: they are too similar. Both pedestrian and measured with lots of people wandering around the stage – don’t think this helps either.
    3-which gives Germany a mighty boost as a rush of energy which is needed.
    4-UK, Sweden, Hungary all feel like Denmark’s support act and are easily forgotten.
    5-but Denmark is followed by 2 songs well performed: Iceland and Azer. No room for error on Teardrops
    6-Greece looks a mess in comparison.
    7-Italy really does stand out, possibly at Azeri expense.
    8-Ireland feels like the Melanie Masson post pimp-slot, Heorgia feels like the real climax.

    I’m now feeling more positive on Italy, Moldova and Germany having seen this, and more negative on Greece, Russia and Ireland.

    • hansenus

      I was also strong into Moldova and Italy beforehand. The draw has not done more than to reinforce my opinion. I am with you on them.

      I am a bit concerned about Moldova voting power. But i expect both Moldova an Italy to be in the top 5 of the jury with Denmark and Netherlands

    • eurovicious

      I’m not convinced Italy will get the televote it needs. Nina and Pastora wouldn’t have been top 10 last year under the new system, and we saw what happened to Moran. I guess some level of Balkan vote will likely go Italy’s way but it’ll be shared with Greece, Hungary and the big hitters like Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia. It may not be enough for Marco to crack the top 10. People judge a song in the few few seconds and Italy could have the same “toilet break” effect that Israel evidently did.

      • hansenus

        Little bad comparison. Because Pastora and Nina are women who tried to deliver a lot with class. Marco is totally different to that so regarding voting power i dont see them as a good precedent. And i dont mean that Marco will do very good with voting, just that is is a different thing,

  • Is there someone who looks at the producer decided running order from a difrent vies?

    I mean, let’s be honest. The show has much more musical variety now. Ballad follows Big Show Act. Big Show Act follows Mid Tempo. Etcetera. There are no ‘destructive sets’ of three or four ballads in a row. One can say Denmark is standing out from the bunch, but in a way every song is standing out too, music-wise at least. Hungary is kind of unique too.

    I reckon this running order makes it especially a bit more difficult for televoters to come up with a favourite. Therefore I expect a more exciting voting procedure compared to 2009 and 2012. Bit more like 2011.

    Georgia, Norway, Greece and Italy ‘eating points from each other’ because they all are favoutites. That’s a dangerous remark too. Is it really true this will happen? Can we proof that? You could also say that because these four entries are so different from each other, there will be less points divided between these four…

    One last thing. I am very very curious how the Balkan will vote now. Perhaps they can severely help Italy, Greece or Netherlands now. As both three countries have an eastern sound to it or are situated near the Balkan.

    What are your ideas?

  • Cass

    Here’s my stab at the contest overall. Feel free to share on social media and thanks for your valuable thoughts on here.

  • Keith

    I’ve read some +ve comments on France but I find it bland and forgettable. What’s it got that will appeal to juries? I fancied it as an outside poke for last place and am a little put off that some people are talking it up.

  • Neil rodgers

    interesting Ireland are last on the list- a dark horse i suspect in this competition and with 800,000 youtube views of this entry and a hit in sweden and with younger viewers could be an interesting final

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