Eurovision 2013: Semi-Final 2 Preview

Semi-final 1 rattled some long-held assumptions among Eurovision hawks: notably Serbia’s failure despite voting power and the pimp slot. Trading at around 1.13 to go through, it was the biggest surprise since Anna Bergendahl’s exit in 2010. I’m a big one for learning from every new piece of information, especially given the change in the way countries are ranked this year.

What we should also bear in mind, however, is that semi 2 has a very different feel to semi 1. Geographically and culturally, there’s a significant weighting towards the far south and east, only partially offset by a ‘northern lights’ brigade. There’s a much greater variety of songs on offer and more strength in depth. That was very clear in last night’s jury rehearsal.

The big four in the market are Norway, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Greece. Georgia were a little off their game last night, Nodi’s opening in particular. In my view it won’t affect their qualification chances, but it might not help them win the semi. I don’t think ‘Alcohol Is Free’ offers any kind of equivalent to Tuesday’s Serbian failure, whilst Norway and Azerbaijan give us two more obviously strong packages.

Beyond the big four, the standout performances last night were Israel, Finland and Iceland. I have them down as reasonably confident qualifiers as a result. If all jurors are truly apolitical, Moran Mazor should be scoring consistently highly among them. Let’s hope that’s the case.

Some commentators have worried that Krista’s stage show and ‘Marry Me’ as a song would be too trashy for juries. The fact that she performs with unrivalled panache makes me think it’s scoring perfectly well with this constituency, as the likes of ‘Lipstick’ and ‘Lautar’ did. A bigger concern is how it will play away from the north and west. As with Iceland, it’s partly relying on strong support from the northern lights brigade and Switzerland.

My slightly less confident choices to fill the last three qualification slots are Malta, Bulgaria and Armenia. In terms of voting power and competence, I think each have enough. I have some fears for Malta and Bulgaria, but ultimately ‘Tomorrow’ and ‘Samo Shampioni’ offer much better packages than the efforts which saw each country just miss out on qualification in 2011 and 2012 respectively. 

Armenia would probably be the most controversial choice, but juries don’t have any reason to unduly punish the way Dorians performed last night and their voting power is strong – moreso than Serbia on Tuesday night, for example. One bright spark sitting next to me in the press centre used the example of Bosnia’s 2010 effort ‘Thunder and Lightning’. This was better staged but almost as dreary a rock song, and that managed a very respectable jury placing, admittedly in a weak semi.

In the battle of the rock songs, I think Armenia beat Albania in terms of polish for the juries last night – ‘Lonely Planet’ looked and sounded more cohesive and it’s in English. Albania comes off worse on voting power too. 

Otherwise, Latvia have it all to do despite being a fantastic show opener; Macedonia have an even tougher task on the stats than their non-qualification efforts of 2009-11; Hungary’s ByeAlex may have cult status among some but looked petrified in front of the juries last night; Switzerland is just too amateurish for me despite a Salvation Army campaign; whilst Romania’s staging is laughable – a perfect storm of absurdity that jurors may punish heavily.

Which leads me to my final non-qualifier. At a price of 5/2 with Boylesports or a lay at under 1.4 on Betfair, the value call has to be fan favourite San Marino to fall at the first hurdle. There’s been an interesting debate in our comments section about the influence of fan voting in the semi-final. The two sides of the argument were summed up best by eurovicious, Boki and Alexander S.

I’m encouraged by the case of Sweden’s Charlotte Perrelli in 2008. ‘Hero’ was the runaway winner of fan polls that year (compared to San Marino’s podium finish). Charlotte was also a returning Eurovision winner representing the fans’ pet country, rather than a returning non-qualifier from a microstate.

Yet despite all this, and some regional support, Perrelli was 12th in her semifinal televote (from draw 2, coincidentally). Her huge popularity among fans counted for nothing in places like Latvia, Georgia, Macedonia and Bulgaria, where she received zero. Meanwhile, she managed one point in France and Hungary. Clearly fan favourite status did nothing for her in many countries (the examples used here are all involved tonight), if any at all.

Juries put Charlotte through as their best of the rest outside the televote top nine, a rule subsequently dropped. Valetina will be relying on jurors too if fanboys are not enough. San Marino have done surprisingly well in this respect from similar sources over the last two years, but the new system downgrades the potential of a jury top ranking if it’s not matched in the televote. That helps partly negate an advantage that saw the microstate still fall well short of qualifying in 2011 and 2012.

The short price to qualify is based largely on a few big key changes. It’s certainly not based on some rather dull staging, which makes the first two minutes of ‘Crisalide’ seem pedestrian. And whilst Valentina is vocally competent, she doesn’t exactly have a Premier League stage presence. This much is clear even in a Eurovision semi-final.

Still, with 10 from 17 going through, I don’t discount San Marino appearing from the envelopes tonight. If it happens, I’ll take it on the chin and continue to smash into ‘Crisalide’ as a top 10 lay in the final. But at odds of 5/2, it’s a chance worth taking.

Let us know your thoughts below. Who are your qualifiers tonight and what’s your best bet?

62 comments to Eurovision 2013: Semi-Final 2 Preview

  • My value bet is a lay of Finland at 1.4 or lower to qualify on Betfair. I don’t think it can score much, if anything, outside of Iceland, Norway, Latvia, Switzerland, Hungary and Malta.

    I think San Marino, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Greece, Israel, Armenia, Albania, Georgia, Romania, France, Spain and Germany are likely to give it 0.

    Ten qualifiers: Azerbaijan, Malta, Bulgaria, Iceland, Greece, Israel, Armenia, Norway, Georgia and Romania.

    If not Romania then one of Albania or Finland.

    Good luck!!! 😀

    • Daniel

      Hi Tim, I do get where you are coming from here, and I’m not sure myself how well ‘Marry Me’ will go down in certain parts of Europe, as indicated in the article.

      However, I think it’s more likely than not to get points from Israel (who gave Saade 12), Spain and France where the message will resonate (Spanish juries traditionally love this kind of thing, they gave Ukraine’s even trashier ‘Be My Valentine’ 10 points in the 2009 semi) and liberal-minded Germany too. Maybe Greece also.

      • Do you mean Spanish televoters? I don’t think juries voted in the 2009 semis.

        I haven’t opposed it yet. If I choose to go with it, then it will only be a small stake in-play where hopefully it will be down to 1.3 or lower.

        People are comparing this to Jedward’s Lipstick, which only scraped through its semi in 8th place despite having the pimp slot.

        • Boki

          Damn it Tim, you are leading an anti-Krista campaign for ages and you didn’t even lay it yet!? 🙂

          • No, Boki. I’m a value-hunter and I predict that the price will be lowest after it’s been performed during the semi.

            I also managed to back Romania at 3.1 yesterday which I’m pleased with. If Romania qualifies then Finland doesn’t (for me). Maybe the result will be the other way around but I’m going for the value and you’d be daft to back Finland at 1.4 or 1.3 imo.

        • Daniel

          I do mean juries. Spain didn’t transmit the 2009 semi live so had to rely totally on its jury in terms of allocating points. But I think Spanish televoters will like it too. It looks like something you’d see on primetime Spanish TV.

  • DashBerlin

    I’ve been high on Iceland for some time, I think vocally it is very sound. I see todays support on Betfair, from 1.8 to 1.55 indicates it had a very good jury performance last night (which Daniel backs up). I think on the high st bookmakers, you can get it at a good price still.
    Strangely enough, in a mirror to SF1 I’m going for 2 very well sung ballads with Israel my other bet. Neither of them are in English, in my opinion I think the ballad is the type of song that gets away with this more as you are listening to the beauty of the vocals and the song, whereas a poppy number, if you don’t know what they’re talking about, it doesn’t make much sense (see Serbia)

    I’m with you Daniel on the San Marino lay, going 2nd is sure to hurt it with a much better Azerbijan overshadowing it. I would think a lot of people, by the time Israel have performed, San Marino will already be forgotten in a voters mind. Realistically, it cannot get into the top 5 of jurers votes either. Interestingly, its only ally that has consistantly given it points is Albania, who are voting in this SF.

    With the theory of 4 from the final 6 to go through, I have either the Swiss or Romania making it through, leaning on Romania. I’ll back both of these and make a profit if 1 gets through.
    Good luck everyone

  • tpfkar

    A few people have speculated on the ‘Christian block vote’ swinging it for Switzerland. No chance. There’s nothing about the song that would hit any Christian buttons beyond the band, and the Sally Army are seen as something of a fringe Christian group anyway (Unfairly actually – I spent a week working in a SA church a few years agho and found it one of the most authentic and uplifting churches I’ve ever been to.) Hardly a high-voting group anyway; last year’s Swiss entry was far better and still didn’t get through.

    My favourite song of the whole competition is San Marino’s so I’ll take some of the 5/2 not to qualify as that’s usually a death sentence for any song. Not convinced Finland will either, it is incredibly annoying from start to finish and still less memorable than Romania’s.

    • DashBerlin

      I wasn’t really banking on the sally support, its more to do with its slot. Its a great slot to last in peoples minds, its a very catchy tune.
      (boring story time), a few weeks ago, I played to about 6 of my female friends who like Eurovision all the songs. 2 of them said Switzerland was their favourite, one of them asked me yesterday “did the one where they’re singing in a car that I liked get through?”
      Now I know she is 1 person and not the population of europe, its worth noting that if casual music/eurovision fans like this, it could easily repeat the Lithuania performance from SF1

    • eurovicious

      tpfkar, agree with you on everything here.

    • I don’t buy into the Salvation Army rally either, to be honest. In general, I think a lot of punters (including myself) are too quick in jumping to conclusions on patterns that either haven’t been proven at all (this one, or for example anti-Euro voting), or that have shaky statistical foundations at bet (“last four years, out the final X entries Y has qualified every time except once).

  • Boki

    I guess everyone is again expecting surprises but that’s a normal reaction after Tuesday happenings. So I hope for a big surprise which is absence of any 🙂

    What I mean is that Valentina’s NQ would be hardly surprise for us and I hope that my previous arguments about fan-votes are bollocks, reinforced by the worst draw possible. Finally, after failed lays of Hungary 2011 and Cyprus 2012, third time should be the lucky one !

  • Boki

    Hi Daniel, don’t you think that bad televote could drag down (or even out) likes of Israel or Iceland as it did for Croatia? Neither have many friends and both can’t be in the jury top, those ‘serious’ ballads might not resonate within this semi. So in case of SM going through, could any of these two be in danger?

    Btw, I noticed many people trying to make a “Serbian case” in semi2 with Finland or even Greece but “Croatian case” is the same thing on the opposite side.

    • DashBerlin

      We don’t know at this point how well/badly the knocked out countries did on televote/jury, so its all guess work. I would summarise neither were top 6 in either category, whereas the 2 ballads in this semi I would think would both be top 6 in jury and have enough televote support to qualify

  • Daniel

    It’s an excellent point Boki. My counterargument is that Croatia suffered disproportionately in the running order: on early and put down the memory hole by Denmark.

    It was a semi full of slow stuff too. On the other hand, there’s a lot more noise in this heat and the slow songs stand out far more.

    • john kef

      I also believe that Croatia was a victim of the running order. It’s highly improbable to have 5 qualified songs in a raw from the first half of the semi.
      About tonight’s semi my predictions-estimations are : Norway-Greece-Azerbaijan-Georgia way ahead of the others.
      Finland-Malta-Iceland-Israel places 5-8
      A battle between Albania-Hungary-Armenia and San Marino. I hope Albania and Hungary get the 2 remaining qualifying places.

      Hungary reminds me of Belgium 2003 and Hungary 2007. A different proposal that might get lots of sympathy from people that are not fans of the contest but they watch the show and they like the song because it’s something different.

  • Hey Daniel,

    Thanks for an excellent analysis, as always! I very much share your thoughts on San Marino, and have built up liabilities to record levels for it to fail (granted, not just NQ but also the much safe non-top3).

    How do you think a first/second half draw would affect the top10 chances, should it indeed qualify? I would be praying for a first half draw as I don’t think the fans pay that much attention to those kind of things, while it would make me very confident in laying it. However, chances (70%) are it would get second half. Do you still see it virtually without chance for a top10 placing? I myself would tend to say it’s still highly unlikely, even late in the running order.

    • Daniel

      Hi squall, also heavily in the non-top 3 semi market here too. I don’t think it’s coming top ten from anywhere. Funnily enough, I was a bit gutted that Belarus didn’t get a second half draw. Same applies there and I was hoping for better non-top ten odds.

      • Daniel. I don’t bet on Betfair and lay bets etc like a lot on here. I just like to punt on the final outcome with maybe a couple of win bets on a favourite and also an e/way outsider. I read with interest that you had a penchant for the French entry. I must admit the song is superb and well in the commercial modern zone (with a ‘Tusky’ flavour too of Fleetwood Mac). What do you think of its real possibilities as I have taken a small e/way punt at 125/1 (first 3 placing)? Is it worth you covering the song in more depth as good long-shot possibility of a top 3 final slot?

        • chewy wesker

          Hi maccafay, I don’t think France can manage a top 3 finish myself personally. But france could well be top out of the big 5, you can back this at 9/1 with the magic sign (that’s ladbrokes) but your right to look at France sometimes these don’t get really looked at because they walk straight into the final. I have a little eye on Spain myself. Good luck with it anyway.

          • Thanks chewy. I don’t follow EV as much as XF and BGT and haven’t much time to check out all the entries, so relying on feelgood tips from the likes of Daniel as he is an avid EV follower and expert and is in the thick of it over there. Just two listens to the French entry and I was hooked on it.

            This is from Daniels May15th rehearsals article, “I should tell you that France’s Amandine Bourgeois rocking out and prowling around the stage to ‘L’Enfer et Moi’ is one of my favourite things in this contest. It was a much better rehearsal here too: the stage is less bright; the camera angles were tighter; and she looked great in a black fringe dress. I’m still not sure how many televoters are taking to it, especially as this is another in the first half of the final, but juries will and it gets my vote”.

            IMHO, it is a far stronger song than our Bonnie’s, yet it is further down the betting for some strange reason (this is the reason I ask, “why?”). Makes me wonder if this could actually be the dark horse of the final on the strength of Daniel’s praise/vote.

      • Hey Daniel,

        Ah, you were the one I was side-by-side with in the San Marino top3 market – should have figured 🙂

        Interesting regarding Belarus, and I fully understand your reasoning. For San Marino however, I think the odds would be somewhat less affected by the draw (due to the fan popularity).

  • Cass

    Is there any way anyone thinks Georgia couldn’t qualify after last night’s shakey show? I’m not a fan of the dull duet and if the jury placed them 7th to 10th they will be in trouble as I don’t see televoters loving it. It’s obviously in a plum draw but 1.06 is very short.

  • chewy wesker

    Interesting the read your opinions on San marino, I feel that top guns will fire into the final, Norway Azerbaijan Georgia & Greece. Which leaves 6 places for the final and 7 countries that will lose out. So my tip is a lay on Albania I can’t see them qualifying tonight, sandwiched between Norway and Georgia will not help em’ and believe that Romania Switzerland and Hungary are stronger. I do however think there will be a shock tonight and could well be San Marino. Finland’s Krista is very strong to qualify tonight but I do agree with Tim and think she is very short priced, but if she’s not one of early ones drawn I back her at say around 1.7 in-running.
    Good luck to sofabet punters tonight.

  • trollgirl

    Oh God, on the official eurovision YT channel on the second rehearsals our firend Cezar has 215 471 (!!!!!) clicks. People are obsessing. In comparison second best Azerbaijan 160 000, Finland 93000, Greece 89000 and Ice queen maggie from norway coming up next with 49000. Very curious how all will turn out tonight.

    • Yep! I’d noticed that too, trollgirl. Let’s hope that most of those hits are from outside Romania, then perhaps Our Cezar has a chance of making the final. It’s a dream I desire, and it’s burning like a fire…..

  • hansenus

    Hi everyone. I am not much into semifinal two, just preparing the betting for the big day. But i will leave here my analysis for the pleasure of reading rather than tipping:
    1 Ok the big 4 will sail into the final so that leaves us with 6 spots in and 7 out.

    2 In seminifal 1 the weight of solo women performance was very high. As a result, the 3 solo male performers could get into the final although they were not strong entries. In semifinal 2, we have just the opposite: only 3 women solo performances. So this highly increases their chances. I see clearly San Marino in the final in contradiction with Daniel because of this. I dont see a value on laying the 1.4 odds although i agree with you that it is one to lay strong in the final for a top 10 spot which she should never reach.

    3 The argument expressed before is the only reason i see Israel could get into the final. This boring ballad has zero voting power and i dont think juries will overrate it so much. It is worth a lay at current odds although i think it probably pass just because of the absence of other women strong ballads.

    4 Armenia, Albania, Latvia and Hungary are all out on my opinion. They kill each other as explained in the point 2. They also dont have a strong voting power. Note that Armenia has not so many alliances here and has a granted “0” from Azerbaijan which should kill all their chances.

    5 I see Finland and Iceland deserving to go to the final and should sail indeed. But the head also tells me that 3 out of 3 scandinavians getting through is highly difficult to happen.

    6 Rumania and Bulgaria should get through. Bulgaria is just different and that should give enough score both in juries and televote to get through. Meanwhile Cezar has the strongest voting power of all here and that is enough to get through here. I see it out of top 10 in juries but not so much as not to recover with the televote. Note it has a lot a lot of support.

    7 Malta well… Like usually, decent song, everyone forgets about at the end. It is a so so and decent laying at current odds i believe.

    So my qualifiers:
    Norway, Georgia, Greece, Azerbaijan, Rumania, Bulgaria and San Marino.
    And then 3 out of these 4: Malta, Israel, Iceland and Finland. These are a hard call but if i would have to risk my house on who would fail i would say Malta.

    Gl for all punters tonight.

  • Hello All – Already off to a bad start on Betsfactor, so I am sure you’d love to read my rushed thoughts, seconds before the show starts…!

    I will be changing my mind at half time.

  • Donald

    H Daniel and all, allot of catching up to do, been so busy, but back to watch 2nd semi final at least and catch up.Look forward to the read and the show.

  • eurovicious

    Have strange mixed feelings about tonight. Can’t help but notice you only have 2 of the last 6 going through! And Rob only 3. These rules aren’t set in stone and it wouldn’t be unprecedented, but Tuesday had 4 of the last 6.

    My 8 core qualifiers: Azerbaijan, Malta, Bulgaria, Greece, Armenia, Norway, Albania, Georgia. Some of those I’m less sure on than others.

    I’m gonna go mad and say Iceland and Switzerland for my last two. Iceland is a warmer, more accessible/universal ballad than Israel and looks a lot better too. Switzerland was strong in the arena today, stood out as credible (to my surprise) and has the effective pimp slot preceding Cezar’s kitsch, in a similar way to how Love Kills became the effective closer when followed by Ljubav je svuda.

    Israel and Finland are too short in the market at present. Israel is a lot less powerful (musically and vocally) than last year’s standout ballads, and is also too short given how she’s dressed and styled. I was wrong (completely) about the dress. It is unflattering and looks a state on camera – Barbara Dex. She looks like a sea anemone. I love Moran, and I kind of hate myself for typing this, but when it comes to Israeli boobs there are Shiri Maimon’s then Moran Mazor’s; she could have look so much more dignified and radiant in a different choice of dress.

    I think that Finland is too trashy for juries. I wouldn’t compare it to Lautar for a host of reasons; Lipstick is a little nearer, but that was simply a great pop song, while Marry Me is as disposable as the confetti that showers down on Krista. Lipstick had edge, was visually striking and was a cracking tune. Marry Me is not a cracking tune. Against my preconceptions in the arena this afternoon, the first three songs were all very well performed – PeR were brilliant fun and had awesome stagecraft, Valentina (who I’ve underestimated as a performer in the past) hit it out of the park and Esma & Lozano were vocally superb. After competent but visibly nervous Farid with an engagingly staged song, Finland seemed like a real comedown. To a first-time viewer it’s all just a bit “WTF?”. In terms of musical strength, visual impact, how sympathetic the performer comes over as, tinniness and even colour scheme, it’s far more Silvia Night than Lipstick on every front. Which is to say that it comes across a non-musical attention-seeking circus, a grating skit, a comedy interlude between the actual good songs by serious performers. Add to which Finland is a televoting minnow and this semi, while less eastern European than Tuesday’s, is relatively evenly split between west and east.

  • trollgirl

    I also thought just now that finland didnt go down as expected, her make up and hair werent right, made her look too edgy, not cute and feminine enough, plus the kiss at the end as a package felt alienating for first time viewers.

  • I thought Finland were absolutely on point trollgirl… But this is the lady who pointed out that Lithuania went down well, so I will bow to your superior knowledge! Just posted my views on Betsfactor – my Betsfactor Hot Ten Predictions: Azerbaijan, Finland, Malta, Iceland, Greece, Norway, Switzerland, Georgia, Armenia, Israel

    • trollgirl

      yeah but I also said belarus was cheap and aparently europe didnt agree, so who knows. 😉

      I hope everyone able picked up their phone and voted for kedvesem. 😀

  • tpfkar

    Profit! Laid San Marino and Switzerland to go throuhgh, and even with a dabble against Malta and Finland that’s a green night.

    No justice if San Marino doesn’t go through with that song, but the performance was messy.

    The winner on the night for me? Iceland. Not saying he won – but performance of the night here.

    • Synthesizer

      Couldn’t agree more, Iceland were outstanding, very driven and captivating performance, sincerely hope he does very well.
      Also in profit as well tonight, only a tenner, but hey, a tenner’s a tenner right?

  • Boki

    Third time is always lucky as I said Daniel 🙂
    I’m glad we can ditch the fan-vote theory, count the winnings from tonight and move on.

  • Nick D.

    Is it just my imagination or has every fan in Europe just successfully trolled poor ikkle San Marino? Nice profit though considering I wasn’t even planning to punt this year and it may be my only bet… 🙂

  • trollgirl

    I found greece was quite outstanding, in running order and all.

    thanks for everyone who voted kedvesem 😀

  • eurovicious

    Whaddaya know, 4 out of the last 6 through… 🙂

    Satisfactory result. After the arena rehearsal this afternoon I completely backed out of my Israel Q bet and turned in into an NQ. I just had a bad feeling. Backing Armenia heavily at evens more than paid for my Finland lay, and like the rest of you I won on laying San Marino. Although I’ve been less confident of Cezar’s qualification over the past week, I didn’t back out of my qualification bet but let it ride. Similarly, despite having a better impression of Switzerland today than before, let my NQ bet ride. Finally, I lost on Bulgaria and Albania, but won on a smaller speculative qualification bet on Hungary that I put on this evening.

    My percentage margins are worse than last year’s. Last year I was +33% on both semis, this year I was +29% on SF1 and just +17% tonight, in the latter case largely because of reversing out of the large Israel bet. Similarly, I only called 7 out of 10 tonight, which is my worst prediction since I don’t even know when. Four or five years. In fact 15/20 overall (8 on Tuesday, 7 tonight) might be my worst ever tally in the two-semi era. And I still won. Which I guess shows if you do this carefully you can’t go too far wrong. I don’t think anyone got 9 or 10 in either semi this year, at least not that I’ve seen. It’s more difficult with the new system.

    Romania and Greece through but otherwise the Balkan wipeout continued – no Yugoslavia in the final in any form for the first time since 1985, no south Slavic countries at all (Bulgaria), no Albania. But every single participating country from the ex-USSR and a full Scandinavian house. Has the contest somehow turned bipolar instead of tripolar?

  • Shai

    I got 9 of 10.My best ever result and total 17 out 20.again my best ever result.And I have no clue over betting.

  • eurovicious

    Denmark is at 1.6!! WTF?

  • john kef

    Bulgaria Nq- Check
    San Marino Nq-Check
    Hungary Q-Check
    Iceland Q-Check
    Switzerland Nq-Check

    The only bet i’ve placed in semi 2 plus Azerbaijan and Greece Top3. My best semis betting results ever!!!

    • eurovicious

      John, that’s spectacular, well done!! 😀

      • john kef

        Thanks mate! From what i’ve seen most of us had a great night today!
        I’m really happy for Hungary! I believed in him from the first time i’ve heard the song.

        Some early thoughts for the final:

        1. All the nordic countries qualified+ the nordic frinedly neighbours Estonia-Lithuania. Who’s gonna take the 12’s? Denmark or Norway? – Finland being in the 1st half worths a small bet in finishing last in the final

        2. 9 ex-soviet countries in the final. Does this mean they are all doomed because of the vote spreading? I can’t see Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Russia or even Georgia take more than 3 out of 9 12’s from their best allies

        3. Where are the Balkan 12’s going? Greece?Moldova? Ex-soviet favourites? Nordic countries?

  • If I was SVT I’d be pretty pleased with the way that the draw has gone. Nice and easy to spread out the dross, most of the big songs in the second half.

  • chewy wesker

    Nice tip Daniel, well done to everyone who followed it. I myself backed Finland at 4/9 corals although they restricted me to only £100, noticed there was someone trying to lay Finland at 1.46 for a five figure sum as it appeared in the blue back box on betfair. (automatically thought of Tim) my lay Albania tip was never in doubt as soon as Hungary and a little after Romania was called out. Noticed also Georgia was available to back at 1.1 in running never had the funds to take advantage, Georgia was always going to fly in as if they had wings, sailing on a sea of dreams.
    I really can’t see any one getting close to Denmark now that she’s drawn in the second half. Is anyone thinking nailed on cert?

  • Donald

    Thanks Daniel, good call, I didn’t even have time to catch up properly but at the price and the great Sofa Bet had a go.. Will catch up properly tomorrow. Great to see all the rock’n’roll still buzzing here. That firey rain hardly going to work this time is it! Again thanks…

  • Synthesizer

    What’s the concensus on iceland?
    Second half draw, brilliant vocals, maybe not the most countries voting for it, but i still think a top 10 finish at 4/1 is a good punt, any thoughts?

    • Chris Bellis

      Well after that performance I’m going to do a top ten on it. I liked it anyway but thought it was too like some of Norway’s nul points efforts in the past to be worth backing. My female sounding boards liked it so it’s got to be worth a go. I wonder if the new voting system is favouring this sort of simple delivery? Bulgaria’s frantic efforts and glowstick drumsticks etc resulted in NQ. Lithuania, Iceland, Hungary, Malta – Q. Might put some extra on Italy now I think of it.

  • john kef

    favourite for the last place being sandwiched between denmark and azerbaijan

  • eurovicious

    BTW: 5 of 7 NQs were in foreign but only 3 of 10 Qs. The effect continues. Israel and Bulgaria, which most people had down as Qs, were tonight’s Croatia and Serbia. And it wasn’t because of kitsch or bad/dated songs/performances.

    • Actually I think the Bulgarian performance was really bad. And I had backed it quite a bit. She didn’t bother about a single camera for example!

      • Chris Bellis

        Me too squall. Performance was all over the place, and the three backing singers were rubbish. You see better on Bulgarian Folk music channels all the time. i spend a fair bit of time in Bulgaria and I like their ethnic music. This effort was a dog’s dinner. I should have laid this one.

    • john kef

      Last week after the first rehearsal when most of the guys where backing Bulgaria i tried to warn you that Bulgaria might seem ethnic or up-lifting but it was actually a trash.For me that was a value bet from the beginning.

      • Chris Bellis

        I wish I’d listened to you! I was going on the fact that the same duo came 5th in 2007. But I think that was the year that there was a Su Pollard lookalike transvestite from Ukraine in second place and the Serbian winner sang a song that was note for note identical to an Albanian hit of the time. I should have put the pieces together.

  • Matt

    Yep Bulgaria was a horror show. Called it on Entertainment Odds straight after her performance.

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