I’m getting the hang of this podcast malarkey – thanks to the ESCtips guys who were kind enough to get me back for their final pre-rehearsal chat. This one coves the automatic qualifiers France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Sweden. Hear what Eurovision hawks Gavster, ScandieAndy, Tim B and myself have to say about them by clicking on the link here.
Incidentally, after I fly to Copenhagen tomorrow afternoon, I will post an outline of Sofabet’s intended rehearsal coverage. This year I envisage sending more tweets and re-tweeting other coverage that’s valuable; if you don’t yet follow us on Twitter, it’s easy to do in the left-hand column.
Finland’s Krista in the British mainstream press today (Sunday), saying the following in an article about the potential gay kiss: “Homophobic people are angry with me for doing this. But I’m planning a surprise at the end of my performance. It’s live on TV, so nobody can stop me.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/mamma-mia-eurovision-song-is-coded-gay-protest-8604124.html
Interesting to hear your thoughts on Italy, this is my main/best bet of this year for a top 10 finish (bet at 4/6)….my banker….just praying for a decent draw now
Another live performance from Friday night here. This time it’s Austria’s Natalia Kelly:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dTaBz9A34I&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Krista will no doubt do the “gay kiss” I don’t think it will harm her chances, I hope she does it in the semi as well as the final, and get her gay marriage message out there. She is really good value in the semi and a top ten. Nugg as for Marco Mengoni I do believe this is one of the best songs this year, I originally had this failing for a top ten spot, but this guy is the biz. Nilli last year got 9th place with a 4th placed jury vote and pretty poor 17th place televote Marco I now feel will match this if not better it, good luck with your top ten bet.
Daniel,
Here’s a comment that basically says “I agree with the guy who knows what he’s talking about”. I’m looking for value, rather than being correct on all of these calls…
I have to agree with you about Germany. I wrote something a couple of months back suggesting it was unimpressive, and I’m still not convinced that it will win, but I think 2.28 for a Top 10 finish is generous, and even odds of 30-1 ish on Betfair to win it, a little long.
Now we have the full 39 in front of us, Glorious stands out as an optimistic dance tune – the rest of the likely winners have that edge of darkness. I wouldn’t worry about her abilities live – she must have done 50,000 nightclub PA’s by now.
I still maintain that Sweden is underrated – I just feel it will do superbly with juries – again, wouldn’t say it will win, but evens for Top 10 again looks generous, I’d expect most juries to have it in their top 5. I agree with you about televoting, but say it comes top 5 with juries, it only needs an average position of 14th with televoters to hit the top 10. (I know this is slightly wonky, but you get my point).
My main worry is the Medi numbers and also that the song needs two or three plays before you get it – unfortunately, the lack of even a semi qualifier means that it will be introduced cold to the euroviewers. Nonetheless, I think juries will lap it up.
I also agree that the Ukraine look woefully overvalued. They have to get through the semi first, and the songs not THAT obvious as a qualifier for me – Odds of 1.63 to lay top 3 in the semi final would be an interesting bet, especially as the spread should tighten over the next 10 days.
I respect why Denmark are #1, it’s one of those songs that you think you like, buy the single, and then get bored after 8 plays. But given many of the voters will only hear it once or twice, I think it works.
Finally, I’ll be looking at Croatia over the coming days for Match bets and the like, I can see some value here as well. Again, can’t say for sure they’d qualify/do OK in the final, but there is value there.
BUY Sweden
BUY Germany
HOLD Denmark
SELL Ukraine
I’m sure my mind will change over the coming days, but that’s where I am at the moment.
Good analysis, Richard. One thing I will say about Cascada is that British punters may well latch onto the familiar name by the time of the final. As a result, I reckon Germany will be shorter than 30-1 come 8pm May 18.
I’m curious about votes in ESC final. When host country calls to all other countries for their points, do ESC organisers already know those points. Do they get to know ESC winner before everybody else or it’s all live as we see it and the full scoreboards is not known by anyone until call to the last country is made?
Yes, the EBU scrutineer(s) already know the result even before the voting sequence starts.