The draw has been revealed for the Eurovision semi-finals. You can find it here. A fuller analysis of each semi will come in time. For now it’s worth making a few general points.
The first semi was made difficult by a lot of similar stuff being in the first half. Producers have decided to start with one of the more uplifting slower female numbers, Austria’s ‘Shine’. The most upbeat number in this half, Slovenia, comes third with the only male act in this half, Croatia, in the middle of it at four. The four market leaders for this semi follow at 5, 6, 7 and 8: Denmark, Russia, Ukraine and The Netherlands.
It’s no surprise to see the slowest number in the second half of this semi, Cyprus, at 14 towards the end of the running order. Moldova is not dissimilar and is at 12, with the upbeat Irish entry splitting them. Belgium and Serbia end the semi by building the tempo up again.
In the second semi, Latvia is not a surprising choice to start things off with ‘Here We Go’. San Marino will be a little disappointed with the second slot whilst upbeat numbers from Finland at 5 and Bulgaria at 7 will at least be relieved not to be opening the heat. Favourites for this semi, Norway, have a decent draw at 13, though fancied Georgia come even later at 15. Switzerland and Romania build the tempo up again with the last two slots.
Producers look to have concentrated purely on which songs fit best where according to their style and not quality. They also haven’t unduly favoured small countries over big countries: Romania and Serbia get the pimp slots despite plenty of friendly votes; but minnows Switzerland and Belgium get the penultimate slots.
What do you think of the draw and the way each semi pans out? Let us know below.
My general opinion so far: Wunderful decision, to allocate the running order slots from a creative point of view. With the current size / number of participants, a random draw can actually kill/destroy certain qualification chances if you ask me.
The first reactions so far are a bit like this “Aaah, that up-tempo song comes after that ballad, so it stands out more!”. That argument has become less valid now, because when looking to the running order the variety of music styles song after song makes every song stand out more or less.
The funny thing is also….that because of this my initial list of qualifiers hasn’t really changed.
Some examples:
Romania: Gets a pimp slot indeed, but I still think it won’t qualify (Remember ‘The Toppers’, Netherlands 2009, slot 19, right after Estonia?)
San Marino: I actually think not much has changed for this micro nation. I had it as a qualifier (7th to 10th) and with this slot I still think San Marino will qualify.
Netherlands: Haha, I predicted Montenegro coming right after Netherlands. So happy this piece of crap comes right after Netherlands :-D. And also, Netherlands after Ukraine is sooo different. Unless the staging is one huge pile of $*%”, I’m certain Netherlands will qualify for the first time since 2004.
The string Denmark, Russia, Ukraine, Netherlands: I see all of them qualifying now.
Georgia vs. Norway: Beware of a fierce battle for 1st place here. Lovely!
Finland vs. Malta: I see them both qualifying now.
Initial thoughts;
1.Austria – Was a maybe, now a NQ
2.Estonia – Borderline
3.Slovenia – Not discounting this
4.Croatia – Probably through
5.Denmark – Through
6.Russia – Probable semi winner.
7.Ukraine – Through
8.The Netherlands – Probably through *gasp!*
9.Montenegro – NQ
10.Lithuania – Probably through, but not certain
11.Belarus – Probably through
12.Moldova – Very borderline
13.Ireland – Through if they fix vocal issues
14.Cyprus – NQ
15.Belgium – NQ
16.Serbia – Through
1.Latvia – Doomed
2.San Marino – NQ Uh Oh Oh…
3.F.Y.R. Macedonia – NQ
4.Azerbaijan – Through
5.Finland – Borderline
6.Malta – Probably through
7.Bulgaria – Probably Through (controversial?)
8.Iceland – NQ
9.Greece – Through, win contender
10.Israel – Probably through
11.Armenia – Probably through
12.Hungary – In with a chance
13.Norway – Win contender
14.Albania – Through
15.Georgia – Win contender
16.Switzerland – NQ
17.Romania – Borderline
My initals without deeper analysis (will only highlight differences):
– Austria border
– Estonia NQ
– Slovenia NQ
– Lithuania border
– San Marino very border
– Bulgaria border
– Hungary NQ
– Albania border
Rg. San M. still not decided to lay at 200 or not 🙂
Seriously, Iceland last year was a fan favorite and was 8th on televote and 11th on jury score while we imagined the juries will see them through. Valentina is shaping to be the same, currently 6th on escstats and climbing, a generous jury support still might just be enough.
I still don’t think San Marino should be ruled out of qualification – slot #2 isn’t necessarily a death slot, both Iceland and Macedonia qualified from that position last year, and I think those songs were just as middle-of-the-road as Crisalide.
Iceland’s song last year wasn’t the most televoter-friendly but it was in English, which probably helped them to get through.
FYR Macaedonia had a lot of voting buddies in SF2 last year, and Kaliopi is a huge star in the Balkans, but they could still only manage 8th place in the televote.
San Marino are *really* up against it when it comes to qualification this year. Had the song been in English, I think it would’ve had more of a chance.
You forget two important things:
A) The new voting system, where 50% of juries and 50% of the televote need to come up with a full ranking, not just a TOP 10. I already wrote a huge thing about it, but this new system clearly endangers songs that usually see a huge discrepancy between the result of the juries and the result of the televoters. Turkey for instance: Constantly support from many immigrant groups across the continent = more than a good result with the televote. But the juries have been more or less ignoring this, ‘correcting’ this with a very low vote. This is resulting in huge discrepancies. And that results again in even worse results overall, as the combined ranking is much higher thanks to juries.
B) Sjee, the last time Netherlands won, was from slot #1 ;-). Anyway, for a song like Austria where staging is already near-perfect, I think it’s a very good opener. Concerning San Marino……after yawning with Latvia, San Marino is the REAL opener, kicking in with a good old schlager ballad, a truly cheesy effective climax, but most importantly vocals from a singer that suit the song perfectly.
Always useful recaps in order:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RqQvR2Tyy4k
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcnfXM8Er-g&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Cheers Boki, very useful. Are the advert breaks after song 8 in each semi?
Semi-final 1
Austria x
Estonia YES (i like this girl)
Slovenia x
Croatia x
Denmark YES
Russia YES
Ukraine YES (i love this girl)
Netherlands YES
Montenegro x
Lithuania YES
Belarus YES
Moldova YES
Ireland YES (survives)
Cyprus x (get your savings out)
Belgium x
Serbia YES
Semi-final 2
Latvia x
San marino x
Fyr macedonia x
Azerbijan YES
Finland YES (this could do the biz)
Malta YES
Bulgaria x
Iceland x
Greece YES (i’m liking this more)
Israel x
Armenia YES
Hungary YES (no fence sitting)
Norway YES
Albania YES
Georgia YES
Switzerland x
Romania YES (it’s my money)
I’m working on a running order now so watch this space!!!
Check out this performance of “Waterfall”. If this is the ESC staging, it’s looking dangerous!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOS7KlX1Wbg&feature=youtu.be
I am actually desperate to see this but it’s been removed, any other link? ;;
Hey Ben! Thanks for this video :-). I’d like to mention something. At the moment of writing this, I am watching the 1997 song contest (Just saw Italy, Slovenia). One thing that strikes me. Staging has indeed become very important, BUT in the past 10 years staging has also become more simple. Indeed, it reminds me of Azerbaijan 2011, Denmark 2010 and indeed Georgia 2010. They all have something in common: Rather dark staging, lots of close-ups, some nice little moves, but it never gets excessive. It stays simple, thus becomes effective.
I have a feeling we’ll see a lot of dark staging in Malmö. Hence, the absence of big LED-screens. In a way, the Malmö-stage reminds me so much of Dublin 1997!
Now coming back to Georgia: TOP 5 candidate now. Like Azerbaijan 2011 it gives you a warm, romantic and happy feeling looking at it. Right now I’d say sure TOP 10 contenders in the final, based on staging concepts that are already looking like an almost finished thing: Denmark, Georgia, Malta, Norway and Ukraine. With slightly slimmer chances for TOP 10 for: Austria, Belarus, Finland, Greece, Italy, Russia and Sweden.
But then again……if Natalia sings bad, then no TOP 10. And if we see a good stage concept for Anouk, things can change again.
My estimations about the Semi-Finals
Semi-Final 1
1. Austria 5-8 Q
2. Estonia 13-16 NQ
3. Slovenia 13-16 NQ
4. Croatia 5-8 Q
5. Denmark 1-4 Q
6. Russia 1-4 Q
7. Ukraine 1-4 Q
8. Netherlands 1-4 Q
9. Montenegro 9-12 (NQ)
10. Lithuania 9-12 (Q)
11. Belarus 9-12 (NQ)
12. Moldova 9-12 (Q)
13. Ireland 5-8 Q
14. Cyprus 13-16 NQ
15. Belgium 13-16 NQ
16. Serbia 5-8 Q
Semi-Final 2
1. Latvia 13-17 NQ
2. San Marino 1-4 Q
3. Macedonia 13-17 NQ
4. Azerbaijan 5-8 Q
5. Finland 9-12 (NQ)
6. Malta 9-12 (NQ)
7. Bulgaria 13-17 NQ
8. Iceland 9-12 (Q)
9. Greece 1-4 Q
10. Israel 5-8 Q
11. Armenia 13-17 NQ
12. Hungary 5-8 Q
13. Norway 1-4 Q
14. Albania 5-8 Q
15. Norway 1-4 Q
16. Switzerland 9-12 (Q)
17. Romania 13-17 NQ