Daniel put Sofabet’s trust in YouGov’s poll in his preview article, and it has correctly called Christopher Maloney as the third-placed act tonight. It’s an honourable third for Christopher and well beyond anything most of the Sofabet community had predicted for him before the lives. Having taken a lot of stick in the pantomime villain role this series, he can depart (probably back to Liverpool, Louis) with his head held high.
We’ll admit we were among those who had growing doubts, peaking around week 7 and 8, about whether producers were fully in control of the Maloney situation. But as we wrote when recapping Christopher’s journey, week 9 reassured us that they knew what they were doing, and you have to feel now that they probably got him exactly when they wanted him – not a week too soon, not a day too late.
Overall, tonight’s treatment of Chris was about what we’d expected, but less helpful for Jahmene. This indicated to us that producers were confident they could get Jahmene above Chris, and were primarily interested in keeping Jahmene below James.
Jahmene kicked off the show with staging that reminded us we were in Manchester through plonking Big Ben on the stage. Both vocally and visually, it all felt a bit of a mess.
As EM noted, “Chris’s homecoming couldn’t have looked any smaller if they’d filmed it using Lego.” Though we were spared the shots of a reported 30-strong crowd on the dockside to meet his ferry, we did get some lonely visuals of him on an empty platform, empty train and empty ferry, and some lingering shots of his nan’s only-half-packed street. The “Norris Green” caption was a nice nod to Craig Colton’s incredible shrinking hometown from last year. Most – though not all – of the voxpops were pensioners, and Chris performed against an 80s-tastic backdrop of cassette tape images. He made a better fist than we were expecting, though, of what had appeared on paper to be an unsuitable song.
James, in the pimp slot, got the most full-on pimping imaginable – waterworks in the VT, a rockstar walk-to-the-stage entrance, a slightly but not offputtingly edgy take on a well-known song, a standing ovation, and a call for “Britain” to be “proud”.
By the end of the first round, James was down to under 1.6 on Betfair, and it didn’t alter much in the second round.
Kicking off the duets, Jahmene and Nicole suffered an unfortunate technology malfunction, ironically just as Jahmene had to sing the lyric “can’t take away my dignity”. Nicole was clearly furious.
Christopher’s duet with Gary had been anticipated as a plus by many, but producers minimised the positive impact in some clever ways noted by Guildo Horn Forever in the comments:
Could some of the camera shots been from any further away. There was more coverage of the structure of the venue building than Chris!
Interesting production choice to have Gary on the piano.
a) Severely limits the number of camera shots with both Gary and Chris in shot together.
b) Highlights the mentor as the “real” instrument-playing musician – and thereby indirectly slights Chris’s non-playing.
c) Places a physical (and emotional and visual) barrier between Gary and Chris. Like a large set of crossed arms.
Again, James stole the round in our eyes with a highly effective and impactful version of ‘Make You Feel My Love’.
The story of the night can be summed up by tpfkar’s comment after round one: “Have to concede James has had a very good round one. Pimp slot in both semi and final. It does seem the producers are aiming at the 1-2-3 in the sofabet prediction, but I’m still not convinced they’ll get it.”
That is the question now. It seems clear they want James as their winner. Will they succeed? As ever, do let us know below.
Those thongs look well under control all of a sudden!
The only possible spanner in the works may be Jahmene was ahead and James was super pimped to ensure he beat Chris. Hopefully not.
Louis Walsh’s comment regarding Liverpool was remarkably stupid but I do not think it was an intended slight.
It speaks volumes that James was 1.73 on Betfair before he even sang. Jahmene didn’t have best night either, but there is still tomorrow. I think James reaches out to more people. I find him rather versatile, than a niche. I’d call Lucy, for example, niche. Not James. Young girls, teens, 20-35 and some older all like James whether male or female.
I’ve argued vociferously and in detail in favour of Chris winning here in recent weeks. Though I was far from the only Chris backer, I’m aware I was one of the most vehement. I’m sorry to anyone who lost money based on my arguments. Just because I argue a case well doesn’t mean it’s right, and just because I write well doesn’t mean I have any idea what I’m doing when it comes to X Factor betting. (I don’t.)
Thoroughly decent thing to say.
Ur not to blame. With my few posts on sofabet, i was convinced Chris would take the crown.
Between James and Jahmene…..
Might b a first from an act in bottom2? Again just an opinion
I enjoy reading your,informative, savvy and entertaining posts. They’re an always excellent read. Strong, informed opinions are the lifeblood of a forum.
You don’t crow when you’re (often) right; so there is no imbalance in not apologising when wrong.
You are responsible for your readings/take on matters; just as others are for their readings/take on your readings.
A chain of interpretations.
That’s all.
Or that’s how I see it – my take.
Indeed… Nils desperandum, EV. We’re all capable of winning/losing money with or without your opinions to guide us, but it’s certainly a lot more entertaining with them.
Only thing I disagree with, GHF, is the crowing part. ‘Human tumbleweed’? Ah, maybe I’m just bitter.
bob mortimer @RealBobMortimer
Dear Saga Cruises please reserve a small berth on your next trip to Oslo.. MALONEY WILL BE AVAILABLE #xfactor
Haven’t seen tonight but if Jahmene appears in a white suit with a choir tomorrow then put everything on James. The white suit + choir combo seems to be a proven vote killer in the final. If they are doing Christmas songs the I expect to see Jahmene doing ‘O Holy Night’ in a blaze of light with angelic choir.
Some shortsightedness here – Who do you think everyone who voted for Chris today, is going to vote for tomorrow?
1) I believe this sounds highly reasonable… IF we consider chris’ voters as “100%” or just “100” – which assuming YouGov figures are spot on, count for 15% of todays vote in the 3-way split.
2) Of this 100%, let’s assume more vote for Jahmene than James, as let’s face it, if you fancy cheese, you’re more likely, whilst of course not certainly going to vote jahmene?
SO…
20/100 – Give up/Don’t bother to vote.
80% left.
2/3 swap of the remainder swap to Jahmene = 53.33%
1/3 swap of the remainder swap to James = 26.66%
53.33% round down to 50% = 7.5% of the total 15%
26.66% round up to 30% = 4.5%
The YouGov puts their differences at 5%. This would close it at least about 3%, leaving it at 2%. Take into account how bias I am making this in James’ further for the purpose of robustness.
I’m putting tomorrow’s vote at 50% to 49% as to the outcome. James certainly has the edge. Last year, little mix were 5% behind Marcus, but then Amelia Lily fans moved to Little Mix. Little Mix won.
Are the odds as betfair at 1.56 for James to win fair? They imply a 65% of him winning. 35% on Jahmene.
Anyone else believe this should be more like 55-60:45-40 ?
Betfair is slowly falling, I’m going short James at 1.5.
I think you are spot on. The dynamic changes. It is not as simple as turn up and crown James by any means and I really think Jahmene will be lauded to the high heavens tomorrow. I still think James will win but it will be closer than the odds suggest now.
Very good reasoning of what will happen tomorrow!
However im not sure what you mean by “little mix were 5% behind marcus” i checked the voting stats and there’s no indication little mix were ever behind Marcus from the semis onwards :S
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/x_factor/3990522/Poll-says-X-Factors-Marcus-Collins-will-make-his-Marc.html
5% behind on the poll. The Sun has rounded the Yougov figures – that is what i was referring to. Also – sure, you can view last year’s voting figures on wikipedia here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_X_Factor_(UK_series_8)
Last year the survey was simply miles off, by over 10%. However you can see that in the final, little mix’s share of the vote further increased. Considering Little mix’s demograph was young voters, but v.low amongst women and amelia lily was a mix of young people – male n female. The gap between mix and marcus increased by 1% in the final.
There is a far more closer correlation between Chris Maloney voters and Jahmene Douglas voters – i think it’s on a knife’s edge and tomorrow’s performances/VT will decide everything. They may even go for a Jahmene win as they know James will make it, no matter what happens as opposed to Jahmene who needs the win more. And so its better for the “x-factor” name to have increased number of artists out there.
Anyway, these were/are my positions;
1) Entire Bank on (£13,114) on James making the final. Average odds 1.24. CLOSED.
2) £100 short on James at 1.5. £43.21 matched.
3) £43.21 (+any further matched) to lay James at 1.6.
Good Luck to you all
I think it’s too early to predict which J will win; we need to see tomorrow’s treatment. However, white suit + choir really doesn’t seem to go down well with voters and Jahmene seems the most likely candidate for that treatment so IF that happens then I would predict James for the win. I suspect that the majority of Chris voters won’t transfer; they voted for Chris because they liked Chris so, with Chris gone, they can save their money. I am also not convinced that the producers really care, at this stage, who actually wins as they can make money from both acts. They needed to get rid of Chris because he was rejected at the Judges’ Houses stage. A win for someone not considered good enough for the live shows would have seriously undermined the credibility of the process. With Chris out of the way there are two acceptable winners, especially as Nicole wins either way.
It does seem that the YouGov poll has been confirmed, and your predictions and projections for vote transfer are very interesting food for thought.
One extra factor I would add to your analysis is a quote from Daniel’s ‘Final Preview:Arthur’s Crown’ column earlier today.
“Also, if there have been underestimates in recent years, it is the acts with a younger fanbase such as One Direction, Cher and Little Mix that have performed better in the phone vote compared to the poll. This is in James’s favour.”
Reading that section earlier today was the tipping point, what spooked me into an insurance bet on Chris being eliminated tonight.
Election pollsters only relatively (historically) recently corrected a bias, a flaw in their polling predictions. They tended to overestimate the support for the (Old) Labour Party. They finally realised that there was a tendency among some of those they had polled to report a voting intention for Labour (or the Lib Dems etc), that in the voting booth would not translate into a vote for Labour. They finally realised that their predictions were being skewed by voters who thought that it sounded “nicer” to be heard to pledge a vote for Labour (which then did not translate into voting behaviour in line with this). Admittedly, this is a simple explanation; the 1992 General Election is a complex case study.
Anyway, the relevance for the predicted James vote share is that there is no mention that YouGov have took measures to correct their pattern of underestimation for acts with a younger fanbase.
55% very probably underestimated James’s support. Add to this that James had a stronger night than Jahmene.
Also add to this that if James’s percentage is underestimated because acts with a younger fanbase are underestimated, you could argue, you could infer, that Chris’s 15% is overestimated. This does not necessarily follow, but it is a possible additional factor to consider. Multiple-voting could be the causal factor (but I think in the comments section Daniel responded to an actual query by providing a hyperlink to a YouGov interview – which I assume dealt with this idea).
Putting it together, and in which case, nan-and-mum-friendly Jahmene’s current odds for the crown are probably about right. Am unsure there is much value there.
A counter to the above would be if it transpires that Chris’s 15% support was underestimated – he came third, yes, but 15% was an underestimation.
The answer might be that some of those polled thought that it didn’t sound “cool” to voice a preference for Chris. For “nicer”, now read “cooler”.
If so, then perhaps the cool one, James, has less support than it seems; and uncool Jahmene has more support that it might seem; plus of course there is a bigger vote transfer pie to be allocated.
In James’s duet with Nicole, I thought he looked a bit scruffy, but maybe he was styled to look shabby-chic etc. It seems to be all about the coolness, but he’s still no Fonz in my eyes!
At my above assertion of 55% I already overestimated YouGov’s predicted support of james!
Misquoting of stats is another variable to consider!
Bugsy where does your 5% James over Jahmene come from?
YouGov definite voters: James 50%, Jahmene 35%.
Add under 18s to James. Add last night’s show to James.
Just a small thing I noticed about Chris’ VT tonight:
He was eating cupcakes with his face on it and everyone was laughing like they were killing the witch. All this while a
Ne-yo song ended with “let it go!” Loved it.
That’s interesting; the ‘food face’ was used for Marcus last year
I’ve suspected for weeks they wanted Maloney in the final to avoid a very bland end to a very flat series. It does look like they’ve been in control all along. The execution was simple and effective with the set up last week (songs, comments and staging) and the kill this week (vt, songs, comments, staging). The sympathy and anti-X Factor vote are all tactics they’ve used before to keep the controversials in as long as they can.
I’ve also doubted he’s a phenomenon, the only way he’s not kept to type is he’s never hit the bottom two. We’ll know tomorrow if he has been topping the vote as per the leaks but leaks are another tactic we’ve seen used.
Now it’s all about who they want to win. Was the James pimping just to get him to the top two or do they want him to take the crown? More importantly who do the public want? James topped the polls of people around me tonight… Youguv is right so far… James win? Wouldn’t bet against it
I just can’t call it. James has been helped with better VT and the crucial better phone number. Jahmene has better songs and better staging.
I wouldn’t have been at all surprised if Christopher made it into the final two either. So, search me. Well done on backing the poll this time though Daniel! I was suspicious after last year’s You Gov cock up (ignoring what you say about margin of error). I’m still going with “Oppose James”, but I haven’t put any of the Betsfactor Bank on that, so it’s only a sort of 60/40 hunch.
For a laugh, I’ve written 30 ways they nuked Chris tonight. They absolutely went for him tonight… and they finally finished off the monster!
http://www.betsfactor.com
Well done the British public for finally putting the best two singers through. When I predicted Chris to win I hadnt seen his odds at 10/1. Seems to me there are plenty of leaks which was not so before in previous series.
As for tomorrow anything can happen.
The winner will be the best performer on the night.
If those two caterwauling idiots who’ve sob-storied their way to the final are what people in Britain in 2012 want to listen to, then I’m leaving the country. Oh wait, I already did. James Arthur should be thankful for his bloody bedsit.
If James does win, the first thing they’ll have to do is get him some serious media training. Otherwise, I could see him becoming another Steve Brookstein/Matt Cardle.
Thanks guys for all the banter and opinion – in the end I decided to go all out for Chris, so now I am ..er.. all out. I think the key for me is that the final is different and needs a different perspective. Over to next year – when I will have a different strategy (namely lay the first person to go under evens for my entire stake and then not tinker!!).
You have thoroughly brightened up the x factor which our family was watching anyway. At a total cost of £100 (lightweight I know) I am not too depressed but a bit dissappointed I could have laid Chris (not really) at 5.x after he got though to the final for £200 profit but – so it goes
James being called safe last. Is this a way to make him win over Jahmene? Either that or hes doing much better than Jahmene and they’re confident he will still win
They were pushing JA far more aggressively than JD last night which makes me think JD was in the safer position from the off and the mission was to get JA above Christopher.
One note for James backers, I just re-watched the Jahmene/Nicole duet – DO NOT underestimate that mic malfunction. The professionalism of Nicole (who was visibly outraged) ensured double the emotional impact – she literally guided Jahmene through the song with the mic swapping and by the end the audience was willing them to see it through, which they did to rapturous reaction in the arena. Genuine triumph over adversity which only reinforces Jahmene’s X-Factor narrative.
If the show wants a Jahmene victory they could do a lot worse than remind us of the technical blunder in tonight’s show, followed by a post-duet backstage bonding session with plenty of tears and cuddles.
If they choose to ignore this then of course we know it’s James all the way (as predicted by the Sofabet committee).
For what it’s worth, my interest now lies only in a James Arthur victory because I have him in a pre-show 442/1, £10 win double with Dani Harmer over at Strictly!
Props to you for having had a long-term bet on James for the outright. I hope Dani wins for you as well – I have a few bets on Miss Beaker re Strictly, too! She has the girl-next-door factor working for her.
With YouGov poll in mind, I came close to placing a win bet on James this morning (like Bradley Wiggins for SPOTY, I have the feeling he may already have (effectively) won), but held off as I was unsure if it was a value bet at 4/9.
Also, I just don’t like James, never have, and still (in my mind) position him with little by way of likeability. I see now I’m most probably in a small minority!
I can only guess that commentators who decreed that the week 7 save over Ella was the pivotal game-changer were right. It was a unique development. Which makes me wonder where Ella would be now if the panel had chosen to save her over James?
Interesting point about the mic malfunction incident. It was a highly memorable moment. Food for thought.
Think I will hold off from backing James or Jahmene and simply watch the show. No bet.
Just read this I-control-the-machine,-it doesn’t control-me article from James. Interesting positioning. Plus: there’s that word again…
http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor/123236-xfactor-2012-final-james-arthur-ill-make-a-credible-winner.html
Dani Harmer for strictly? Good luck!!
Thanks :S!
Backed her in a variety of markets and have Louis for the crown. Still very, very hopeful for both.
Have given up hope on my ew bet on Lisa.
Was shocked at the perfect mash-up for Kimberley. Have been waiting for the judges to switch allegiance from Denise and hoped and expected they would start pushing Dani.
Still, she’s doing great and 38 out of 40 ain’t to be sniffed at.
IMHO she’s still over-priced now.
After reflecting overnight, I’ve switched my book to an equal result on both. if I’d done nothing for the past 7 days, I’d be sitting on twice the return. But I moved away from James, sure he was heading for third, and have to admit I got it wrong. The show is going all for him, the yougov poll, the lack of excitement around Jahmene forces me to change my view. So tidy return for the series and I can just enjoy tonight’s show.
Went to last nights show. Right from the second we arrived it was clear the crowd were 80percent for James. If the studio audience reflects the voting public then this is not even close. Back tonight for final.
What was the average age of the crowd Nugg? I’d guess younger than the average voter.
Did you get to chat to anyone this time?
Crowd was much younger than last year…lots of children allowed in…..and no bar. Never got to meet the acts. Was sat about three rows from Maloneys nan. Unless the public vote is VERY different from audience then James has this in the bag and will be the first ever winner to be in bottom two. I guess the danger is Maloneys voters transfering to Jahmene tonight.
I think James has this in the bag, but I wouldn’t go on the crowd which sounds like it is critically different from the wider audience (as it is also different on Big Brother).
I think both James and Jahmene respectively dueting with the same partner was of more help to James. I hadn’t realised the height difference between them until last night.
James towered over Nicole: while Nicole towered over Jahmene. Sharing the microphone with Jahmene, she was noticeably crouching.
Jahmene looked the man (sort of) serenading the woman, and Jahmene the boy singing with his mum. Generally, I thought Jahmene looked a little uncomfortable duetting.
Erm, edit: James looked the man…
Is what I meant to type.
I actually thought the duet helped Jahmene. His chemistry with Nicole was very sweet whilst with James I felt it cold.
Yeah, good point.
That was James’s fault.
I think his ability to maintain eye-contact has vastly improved, but he still hasn’t learnt to eliminate that shuffling motion from his stage work. That perpetual lateral rocking and semi-turning of his (whether it be a comfort thing, or an anticipating-rejection pre-empt) made him look (wrongly of course and just at certain points) as though he wanted to be elsewhere.
And there was that slightly odd finish on the last word “love” where he broke off first to look at the audience for approval (instead of being lost in Nicole’s gaze).
Still, he was lot better than I expected, especially given I’m sure they could have dressed him better than they managed.
The feeling and support behind James last night was very similar to that of littlemix last year. Getting some vodka downed now before tonights big event. Venue is nowhere near as good as Wembley Arena….and crowded were all serioisly warnrd during commercial break about booing Maloney
What did they actually say about the booing?
They said please show respect to all the artists who have worked hard every week to get here. We want no more booing after this break and for rest of show. Until you have beaten over 100,000 people to make it to the X Factor final then you have no right to boo. That plus a bit more was pushed at crowd during fitst break. Initially there was heavy booing whenever Chris’s name was mentioned
Some interesting tweets re Christopher the past half hour, looks like he not on the show tonight, they have written him into history already https://twitter.com/Cod_Rob
Judging by where he was last night and what he’s apparently said then I think the last few weeks press will have been a walk in the park for Chris compared to what is about to happen to him
The Sun has this story:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4689288/christopher-maloney-kicked-off-tonights-final.html
Has anyone any info on song choices tonight?
Is it winners single and one song from series they have already done?
Or just winners single?
Thanks
lastest voting polls on Digital Spy.which is a james website.
Jahmene 231 votes 52.03%
james 213 47.97%
444 votes is not a big enough sample
Best of luck with James tonight JS, I tried to persuade you he would not win so well done and I hope he sees it through. I have James myself so am with you tonight.
Cheers mate, on at big prices since boot camp.
Bottom two has helped him as expected, totally highlighted with significant gap in YouTube views compared to other acts since bottom two, which didn’t apply two any song Before he was I’m bottom two.
He was heavily favoured last night, rightly so I have been forces to lay off now. But will stand by the opinion that James wins.
However there is one (or two?) songs left and it certainly isn’t over.
James was given the best stage production yesterday, but one thig that hasn’t been mentioned yet, there is a chance it was done to make sure that he finished above Chris! Hopefully not the case, but if so he has now done that. So stage production is likely to favour Jahmene tonight.
What James does with the winners song will be key IMO. And any vt showing the “journey” of each act will favour Jahmene tonight too, where as yesterday’s James was favoured with tears etc.
Also I won’t forget te rumoured song choices for tonight “angels” and “don’t speak” Jahmenes best performance versus James worst performance (IMO) and if so it’s interesting they saved it for tonight and not last night, like they did with Marcus and little mix. Would show they just wanted James to finish higher than Chris.
i know .but james did poll 50% of the poll when he was with chris and jahmene james 50% jahmane 35% and chris15%.a big change now to close to call and the bookmarkers have got james far to short
.i post the polling just before it kicks off
If there’s one thing that will make Jahmene win, it’s the duet. It reminded me of the time when Leon sang with Kylie and won for him. It was endearing yet in control and chemistry was great. Plus I think the mic problem caused situation-them singing in the same microphone- made it all a bit intimate, connected them well. Let it be is probably the most known, but also most overused and boring Beatles song. But it can give Jahmene the opportunity for some wonderful vocal gymnastics. It has the potenctial to become a second ‘Hallelujah” moment a la Alexadra or a total snoooZZZZefest. Jahmene hasn’t been in the bottom two and chris’s voters are more likely to vote for him than James…. So Jahmene has a lot going for him, he has a greater chance to win. Then again James is sooo overpimped. And I think the song suits him very well. It’s not a totally unknown song, and is very fresh in the face of the overused let it be. So James does stand a chance as well.
Maybe I’m a bit less certain of his win because he’s been in the bottom two, and there’s no precedent for winning after a visit there. The fact that girl band do bad made me doubt little mix’s win last year till the very last minute although every fign was pointing there.
upto 740pm
its very close
jahmame 238 51.97%
james 220 48.03%
to close to call
The Sun had James 56% and Jahmene 44% earlier on. Sample about 7500.
Argh I can’t believe I read the Sun, off to top myself now especially when you think I backed Christopher to win. Now hoping for a James win.
Good Luck everyone
Too close to call.
Good luck to all.
That was interesting. Jahméne received his first ad break of the final. Bizarrely, James wasn’t given one and was instead followed by montages and One Direction. Perhaps they want James beaten. The judges also suggested that James Arthur was going to have an album anyway and there was no motivation or requests for votes.
Can we vote for Emeli Sandé instead?
Potentially the world’s greatest televangelist – all-singing, no-dancing, Jahmene Douglas.
Nicely done:
Jahmene finishes his song.
The most universally reviled judge, Louis, (with all his signature, superficial clichés) demand the public vote for Jahmene.
Versus:
James is singing his song.
Nicole seems to be concentrating on holding down a public orgasm before just having to jump up and bob to the power-packed beat. Irresistible. The girl couldn’t help herself, you see.
James finishes his song.
The other judges voices a deep, personal connection for James Arthur. Identification, respect, soulfulness, integrity, truth. Deep shit.
In credible.
Let It be was the best he could come up with…get out of here
I hope Dermot milks this for all it’s worth, “the winner of x-factor 2012 is… … J… J… J… Ja… Ja… Ja…
Jahmene (blame the duet).
The best result for all concerned.
How long Dermot’s pause? I think I saw a market on that last week.
I preferred Let it Be to Impossible. But Angels, the last note was very flat and I did think it was one of Jahmene’s weaker ones in the series when he did it the first time. Been a few flat notes from him this weekend. Rated both of their first performances better than the duets yesterday.
Jahmene would cope better with being the runner-up than James would. James comes across as a deeply insecure young man, yet no mention of any specific personal tragedies, just that he’s been in a bad place.
Will all of Chris’s vote go to Jahmene – or, I wonder, will there be some that will get behind the “northerner” rather than the “Londoner”?
The Empire Strikes Back!
Well called Daniel
So Jahmene got his angelic choir (although no white suit) and second place.