I’m typing this with burned fingers. When Melanie and District 3 were announced in the bottom two, I thought this was yet another of the no-brainer singoff situations on which I’ve made handsome profits in recent series. For two weeks in a row, the show has seemed to be gunning for District 3. And while we never thought producers were especially interested in keeping Melanie around for the long haul, nor had they seemed out to get her to the same extent as they had District 3.
I piled in on Betfair, so like many of you in the comments I have lost a significant sum tonight – four figures in my case. My sympathies to everyone else in the same boat. In the comments, tom21 asks “Is this a watershed moment for xfactor betting (at least for those willing to lump on at short odds) or am I being over the top?” No, I don’t think you’re being over the top, Tom – I can’t remember the last time the show surprised me so much.
So what just happened?
I’m still scratching my head as to why they’d have wanted to give District 3 a reprieve, having indicated clearly over the last two weeks that Union J were the preferred boyband. Do they think there is mileage in a “battle of the boybands” narrative? But now that District 3’s weakness in the votes has been revealed by their bottom 2 appearance, it’s not going to be such an exciting battle any more – if it ever was.
Or perhaps there was a compelling reason of which we weren’t aware that they had to get rid of Melanie? Are producers actually trying to get Gary out of the competition by halfway, perhaps so they can bring back Simon Cowell as a non-mentoring judge to give ratings a boost? Given the cheesiness of Shakey Maloney and the anonymity of Kye, it looks like it should be achievable if this is their aim.
One thing of which we can be certain is that all our historical assumptions about the running order have been overturned. Landing up in the bottom two from the pimp slot is unprecedented at this early stage of the competition, and follows on from Carolynne Poole likewise ending up in the bottom two from second-from-last in the first show, for the first time in the show’s history. Props to Sofabet commenter jscouser2002 for making this point in the comments after Saturday’s show:
The biggest question I have been asking is, is running order as Key as previous years, now lines are open from the start and there is practically no SCD clash.
Was it to be on early?, late? Middle?
I really dont think that matters anymore, I think its now all about position of the artists around.
If you are an average act in the middle of the favourites Ella/James/Jahmene, then you are in big trouble, you are very unlikely to pick up any extra votes, as viewers will be waiting to vote for their favourite, who they have either:
a) Just voted for
b) Waiting to vote for them because you know they are on next
I can’t remember a running order as frontloaded with big names as Saturday’s. Nor can I remember a pimp slot performance that felt less like a pimp slot – with Rylan providing the natural climax of proceedings, Melanie felt like she was in a post-pimp slot, especially with an unusually late 10.35 finish. Perhaps producers are feeling their way as much as we punters are with the effects of phone lines being open from the start of the show?
There will be much to ponder for us in the coming days. As ever, we warmly invite you to get involved with your thoughts and theories in the comments below.
Cheers for the mention.
Think everyone will be scatching thier heads with decision to keep D3. Perhaps there was indiciation she was missing home and wouldnt last a 2 month tour? So was down to go soon anyway.
Barlow didnt seem shocked
that can’t be the reason. There are till a few eliminations till the tour crew is decided. and it was clear melanie would be easy to nobble at any point. it’s all very strange.
melanie died because she was on after rylan. and becaue the line were open people didn’t need to watch till the end to vote. I was talking to a friend right before tonight’s result and she was saying how she completely forget about melanie because she didn’t watch her performe, dislikes ryan and turned the tv right of during his performance….
So being at the end..in the previous ;pimp slot – could surely work as a disadvantage if after an unpopular act? It could act as a way to nobble an act with people as your friend did..turning off before the act they dislike and in turn missing the act on last? Plus lines open from the start
Fingers burnt here too, Dan.
I’ve been having the same debate on Twitter with jscouser and I half agree and half disagree.
Regarding D3, I can’t see anything contrived about their positioning. The only positioning I see as being contrived in the running order is that of Christopher Maloney and Rylan Clark – you can understand the producer’s thought processes.
I have thought along the same lines as you regarding a ‘get gary our’ campaign from Cowell. It all depends how long Shakey can hold on in my opinion. Kye certainly won’t lead the charge, that’s for sure!
I think it now pays to wait until the running order, rather than investing in tabloid gossip and tittle-tattle. Although, I can’t see how Chris can hold on much longer!
Did my konkers tonight having backed MK1 and Kye at big prices (2/1 and 4/1) for the bottom two. Is this the first time we’ve ever seen an act in the pimp spot end up in the bottom two? It does leave me pondering: is early the new late?
Yes it is, Never seen anyone in Pimp Slot appear in bottom 2. (I would assume aside from Final, and Maybe Semi Final)
Week 1 second to last of vote, was Bottom.
Week 2 second to last of vote, was Bottom
Last in week 1 was Jahmene, so he was hardly going to be bottom 2.
“I’m still scratching my head as to why they’d have wanted to give District 3 a reprieve, having indicated clearly over the last two weeks that Union J were the preferred boyband.”
– What do you mean by this? Is it not as straight-forward as Tulisa saved D3, Nicole saved Melanie, it went to deadlock, and Melanie got fewer votes? I know we saw the producer talking to Louis last week and I could well believe he told him to take it to deadlock, but do you actually believe it’s so rigged that none of the judges ever make their own decisions?
That’s one of the principal beliefs of most of the punters at Sofabet and they have mostly been right over the last two seasons.
Yep I think we mostly all agree that X Factor is scripted and the judges are in the main..puppets!
I will answer that. When Simon Cowell was on the panel, who is financially and with a production company behind the show I think decisions had the chance to be a bit more spontaneous, but even then I’m sure they all had ideeas where they thought the show should be directed towards. Now that all judges as basicaly just employees who don’t really have much to gain from the future well doing of their act, and besides, could easily be fired and replaced by next season if they don’t work out the way producers imagined they would… well I’m dure they have at least vague, but maybe even clear directions regarding what they should do for the show to move in the desired direction. ie. they vote as they are told or as they discuss it previously.
with a show involving so much money i’m sure they are not leaving too much to chance.
Yep and the judges aren’t going to ignore their marching orders – you don’t bite the hand that feeds you!!
everyone knows it’s all fixed/worked out it’s just a question of taking it for what it is – last week did seem very off, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lous was told what to do in his ear piece..but as ever they all claim they’re their own decisions yada yada yada
Ben Cook.
Yes this is correct, in every season so far. It is believed, strongly by some, including myself. That running order/song choices/judges comments are all decided in advance in order to give certain acts and advantages & disadvantages depending on the outcme the producers wanted.
This year… it looks like producers have totally underestimated the effect on the lines being open from the begining, unlike previous years.
I think everyone would agree that had lines opened at the end as previus years.
D3 would have gone week 1
Chris would have gone week 2
Hi Ben – my instinct regarding tonight is the same as yours, but to answer your question, the show has always been “steered” and Sofabet’s 2010 and 2011 coverage was spot-on throughout. Something has changed this year. We know that a crunch talk was held this week after the Rylan debacle – could it be that as Gary has demanded a stop to producer interference (http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor/111218-x-factor-2012-gary-barlow-says-deadlock-drama-has-ruined-shows-reputation.html), the judges are simply voting as they think fit?
http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor/110343-x-factor-2012-judges-hold-crisis-meeting.html
Hi again Ben – have a read of this:
http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor/112335-x-factor-2012-uk-secrets-and-fixing-exposed-producers.html
Daniel and rest, do you think that this escalated a little bit ? How serious is it and are they really under ofcom threat? I wonder if they could live with another Rylan sing-off save or not…
Hi Boki, this kind of thing is not good for the long-term health of the show. But in the short-term ratings matter, especially as they have been lower this year than last year. Ratings mean saving Rylan though it will be interesting to see how they do it.
I’d rather not answer that question directly Ben, but put it this way. I’ve been betting on the sing-off for two and a half series and it’s the first time in that period I’m surprised by the result.
And I will add that I don’t think it’s been rocket science.
You post on the BF forum Dan? Unlucky tonight, sounds like you usually get it right though!
Hi Richard and welcome to Sofabet. Thanks for the kind words. I don’t post on the Betfair forum. There are so many good comments on here to look at and respond to, and it seems only fair to share what thoughts I have on Sofabet.
Wow! I am always out on Sunday evenings so watch on ITV +1 and don’t get involved in singoff markets. lucky escape tonight, I called it wrong like most commenters and comiserations to those who were exposed.
Never thought Christopher was going, maybe the point to ponder is how the X Factor are turning into incompetent assassins this year. 2 targets lined up, 2 aimed at, 2 still standing. Last year they didn’t have a single clear miss.
I have to admit I was suprised by tonight’s result and got burned as well. I was sure it would be Shakey and one of the groups in the bottom 2. I thought Melanie would struggle even with the “pimp slot”, but not poll that badly. As for saving District 3, maybe the producers didn’t really care who left tonight (after all saving Private Rylan was mission accomplished). Whoever was saved would be easy to nobble again in the next few weeks, so perhaps the judges actually had free reign with their votes.
I can’t say I buy the theory that there’s some plan to get Gary out and bring back Simon. Considering that X Factor US has just slumped to its lowest ratings this series (and has been losing to The Voice), I’m sure Simon will want to concentrate his efforts there. There’s a lot more money at stake and X Factor UK is not doing so badly in the ratings.
I just cant understand why they would want TWO similar boybands to be in the show.
It was a perfect opportunity for them to say goodbye to D3 tonight. Very surprised.
Trying to think slightly out of the box re: why D3 were saved. I think it’s possible that their continuing presence in the contest will be used to boost UJ, rather than hinder the alpha group.
The default thought is that to help UJ then D3 should be jettisoned ASAP, but as they have already been handicapped beyond repair they are no real threat in terms of split vote(as tonight showed) and perhaps having an ultra weak boy and in the contest who do cheesy and dated songs week after week helps viewers to see UJ as more credible and current?
It certainly helped last night. If D3 weren’t there then most viewers would dismiss UJ as they do most boybands(OD were very unpopular with most), whereas D3 surviving probably leads a chunk of the audience to the marginally softer ‘I don’t like them but atleast they are better than D3’ position….?
Kieran, there has only been one occasion in the history of X Factor, where the act in the “Pimp Slot”, has ended up in the bottom two….. Ashley McKenzie in Wk 4 of Series 3.
There have been other times when the act singing last has been eliminated, but this has only been in the final weeks, where there was no sing-off.
The other times… I am sure will include when the acts sing TWICE. So like the now the lines will be open before the pimp slot act.
Hi daniel,
There could be a more simple explanation why the elimination pattern this series is more erratic than previous series. Might it be that Ella is hoovering up so many of the votes that the differences between most of the other competition is paper thin. So regardless of the running order it is likely to be more of a lottery than other series?
Hi Peter, this idea has crossed my mind. And of course, differences between the lower polling acts are usually pretty narrow in early weeks anyway.
Ella hoovering up the votes and leaving a paper thin difference between the other acts could be a part of the explanation for the non-correlation between singing slot and bottom 2 appearance. On the other hand, Janet was hoovering up the votes in the first weeks last year too.
Maybe what really made the difference is the combination of the above with the lines being open from the start. It seems that, at least in the early shows, the main 3-4 bottom 2 candidates can be identified by watching the show as a viewer rather than a punter and identifying the performances that totally pass one by (especially if these are in a nice ella/jamhene sandwich with lucy sauce). That’s what I did and ended up with a (potential) 0.25 return on D3 and (what came to be) a 0.05 return on Mel (she was a ‘stake saver’) and varying other returns on a few more.
In addition, it seems that the de-ramping techniques of the TPTB this year inspire votes rather than hitting their target. New rule of thumbs? hahaha 🙂
Daniel, another thought. What happened during the past week was unprecedented in the sense that now for the first time it was out even to the casual viewer that this show is SO steered, and not just to the punters/analysts. So this week, 1 short week after the ‘dramatic events’, would be the last week they would want any controversy. So, some time before the lines had closed tonight and seeing that Mel and D3 were to be the bottom 2, they decided that in the long-run they were both dispensible so what’s more fair than taking it to deadlock and having the act with the fewer public votes go? They got shit scared basically, to the point of not only not steering, but also swimming for their lives away from the ship. It’s not as if Ella was in the bottom 2 and they wanted to make sure she would stay.
That too seems possible – let it go to a public vote and try to restore any integrity the show may have and claim the public really do decide who goes ultimately and there isnt a fix
The panos theory makes sense to me. all 4 judges were clear and decisive, so possibly a very public effort to show things had changed from last week.
Completely with you Panos.
So as to why they chose to get rid of Melanie rather than D3, my thoughts are that they considered both to be disposable. Maybe they even allowed the judges to just say what they wanted!?
Confused and very surprised so many normally shrewd viewers have lost money tonight… how exactly?! even if the ridiculously short 1.15 on District 3 was backed and not layed, regardless of producer preferences, they were still available to lay at 1.26(!) as we went into deadlock. With the chances of a boyband outpolling a 40 year old obviously very high, I’m not sure I’ve EVER seen the market more wrong at that time than it looked tonight. Happy to report I layed both prices.
Yeah, but how much time do you realistically have between it going to deadlock and Dermot reading out the name? Not much at all. It’s difficult enough getting money on away.
As revealed on the Xtra Factor, next week’s theme is due to be Club Classics, which may already be filling Gary with fear. This theme has historically proved rather poor for the Over 25/28’s category. In the last two years, when the week had this theme, 3 out of the 4 acts in the bottom two came from the Overs, with the eliminated act each week also coming from this category:
Series 8, Wk 5 – Kitty (Overs) & Johnny* (Overs)
Series 7, Semi – Mary Byrne* (Overs) & Cher Lloyd (Girls)
*Eliminated
In Series 4 & 5 there were Disco weeks, but these did not appear to significantly affect any category, with the four acts in the bottom two featuring one from each category.
I wonder what the odds will be for a bottom two of Christopher & Kye next week.
And this theme plays right into Rylan’s hands. If there is anyone who could find this week incredibly tough, it’s all three of the girls, especially Ella.
That’s good research Chatterbox, thanks.
I narrowly missed out on the money last week because I backed Rylan to go. This week I was spot on with Melanie at 12/1. Actually I backed her and D3 (4/1) to be eliminated but I don’t think I can do B2 on Bet365.
Why Melanie. Simply VFM at 12’s and she was bound to go in the early weeks.
This wasn’t such an earth shattering producer decision really. They do plan things militarily before the live shows begin but also have the flexibility to change when necessary. And it’s probably always necessary.
Last year months before the lives they wanted Janet, at least by Judges Houses they thought bands too. Quickly dropped the boy-bands and then dropped Janet. Tonight (last night) they just had a change of heart at the bottom end of the scale with District 3 (I can’t see them ever dropping Ella).
They didn’t expect Melanie to be so unpopular so, whilst they had plans for what to do with say Christopher or Rylan, I’m sure they made their decision to ditch Melanie relatively late. District3 offers more scenarios.
I agree with the comment above about Ella hoovering leaving paper thin differences at the bottom.
Last year Janet got 23.6% first vote and 17.2% the next week. I bet Ella’s been getting twice that.
Whether you can say that opening the lines takes away the running order advantages and disadvantages, or not, or reverses them, the one thing that it proves is that the X Factor is well and truly a popularity contest.
Another point to note is that because of sites like Sofabet, is it possible that more of the public are catching on to producer deramping tactics, so that because they have learned of certain tactics from this site, they can identify key signs that their favourite is being nobbled and vote for them to prevent it, Producers might want to rethink their strategy?
The psychology of the phone vote being open from the start is an interesting one.
It’s a big assumption but I’d guess that the voting audience is split into two main camps.
1. Unabashed fans, they have their favourite act and will vote for it regardless and possible many times.
2. The undecided. Past voting records would suggest there are a lot of these and they can be influenced a lot by performance.
Again it’s another assumption but I’d guess that most of the undecided feel they should only vote once out of economic and logic (you can’t have more than one favourite!).
Before they’d watch all the acts, make up their mind and vote. How are they watching now? Some must be doing the same but there must also be an element of “oh nothing’s going to top that”, which means being last could be a bit of a disadvantage now.
Think about it, for the fifth act on to get my one vote they have to be better than the first 4, for the 12th act on they have to beat 11.
If you accept these thoughts then there are things that still hold true
– position in running order is still important, it’s still possible to be forgotten
– probably who you’re next to is important, the act before or after you can make you unforgettable
– VTs and judges comments can still dampen or ramp things (an “I want everyone in Liverpool to pick up the phone and vote now” could be really effective)
Agree. People are more likely to vote early. Hence the frontloading of last night’s show. Let’s say I’m a casual viewer and I really liked Jahmene on Saturday and voted for him after his performance, then the same for Ella. By the time it gets to later in the running order, I might be thinking “Well, I really liked Kye too, but I’ve already voted twice…” #austeritybritain
It all makes sense…
This week and last once again go to show how much difficulty older women have (in Carolynne’s case, not even that old) in garnering public support. They were both on in not a pimp slot but a drop slot – Carolynne straight after Ella (and before Jahmene), Melanie straight after the big Rylan production. I also think the lack of public support has a lot to do with their singing styles (especially in the case of Melanie).
See i’m not 100% sure the tactic you mentioned is even that effective surely, i do vote occasionally mostly towards the final rounds. However can anyone actually say that when louis walsh screams into their tv that a certain area should vote for someone, that anyone will go “oh wait i live in that area, i better had drop everything and get voting then”.I voted for Rebecca and Marcus in the final because i liked them and i liked their performances, not because Louie Walsh says i have to vote. I still don’t think its scousers voting for chris as much as they were for rebecca and marcus, it’ll just be people who are enjoying his voice.
For the few scousers that may vote for him, purely and simply because he is from liverpool, did they need louie to remind them he was from liverpool? his accent is surely reminder enough
Maybe im missing the point here but i always thought when louie does that he’s doing the opposite, if i lived in somewhere other than liverpool and louie was saying “everyone in liverpool needs to vote” id be thinking “well he has the whole of liverpool voting for him, maybe i dont have to vote”
Maybe im really missing the point here, just thought id offer an alternative opinion, ill gladly stand corrected 😛
“However can anyone actually say that when louis walsh screams into their tv that a certain area should vote for someone, that anyone will go “oh wait i live in that area, i better had drop everything and get voting then”.”
In response to above, the answer is no. But those already considering voting for that act, are encouraged to which gains extra votes. As opposed to him saying “that was rubbish”
It does make a difference
There’s something quite tribal about certain places where I think that does work, others I’m not so sure of.
I think that makes perfect sense, EM.
Don’t think they will want this unpredictability to continue. Wonder if they will open the lines later in the coming weeks? for those away from sites like sofabet it won’t seem like a big deal.
Gary Barlow? He makes up with Louie at the start of the show, and didn’t seem the slightest bit bothered about Melanie being out. D3 looked really worried until it went to deadlock, then they had a look of smug relief on their faces, Melanie looked resigned and must have known the level of votes she had. Her VT earlier suggests lots of upset and emotion, maybe she was looking to go and they used her as an experiment to test the non-advantage of the pimp slot? Once she hit bottom then there was no point in keeping her if she might want to walk another week and upset their plans.
Union J had the main spot in the results show performance, D3 can remain a week or two more to demonstrate the gulf between them.
Finally, physiologically, (and back to my first point) opening phone lines at the start takes away the feeling that you are judging all acts. It’s more like the final from the start, you’ll vote for your favorite and so the effect of running order – which must be tricky for producers to play – is thrown right out. They will want more control,
… Got my physio’s and phsyco’s mixed up there!
I think another reason why they maybe kept D3 is because Rylan maybe only barely escaped the bottom three. Let’s imagine he was 10th in televoting last weekend.
Let’s now imagine D3 were 11th in first week too (almost making bottom two) and Melanie was maybe 7th in first week.
Now while I think it would have been easy to get Melanie out at any point maybe this is all part of saving private rylan!
If next week he lands again in the bottom two, they could try to get D3 there too and could kick them out for reasons as: you were bottom two already too, public is not connecting to you, the other boyband is superior to you, etc. The producers probably know it’s very easy to get D3 in the bottom two now.
D3 could also get a sympathy bounce next week but I think Chris will struggle with the disco week and I’m sure we will hear another lots of cheese comments.
So maybe the plan is to get Chris out this week, then D3 and then we’d be down to 9 already, so next step would be to get rid of Kye (and annoy Gary Barlow) and then Rylan would be in the top8 and probably make the tour.
Excellent reasoning about saving private rylan. Could have kept d3 so it’s easier to save him in future, would be less shock and no backlash from Barlow (wether it had to be staged or not), compared to if Melanie went instead of rylan in a sing off
I did not see that coming…
I thought Shakey was dead cert B2 material.
Then I thought Melanie would be saved over D3.
Need to seriously rethink my interpretation.
This weeks elmination… does anyone disagree with the following?
Hard to see them leaving Gary with one act left after 3 weeks and losing 3 on the trot. So I would assume Kye/Christopher both safe.
Very easy for acts to bounce in the first 3 weeks because there is normally less than 0.5% between the acts at the bottom. So D3 likely to bounce and at 5-2 too short.
Rylan still has a few more weeks in him, main talking point of an Entertainment Show. Plus makes the tour, so normally top 9/10? is it for that tour.
Baring outsiders (Jahmene/Ella/James/UJ), this leaves MK1/Lucy/Jade
MK1 were slated last week, with the word “Glee” mentioned several times. Clearly lost some votes there. Easily go this week.
Lucy, novelty has worn off, although probably too early for her to go, has a couple weeks yet. She looks perfect for bottom two in a Clubland Classics week.
Jade, I find her forgettable as she was during pre live shows. Nothing has changed she has always had a good voice, but so do James/Ella she doesnt compete with them. Also bottom 2 material for me.
MK1 to go
Lucy bottom 2
Jade bottom 2
Most likely bets for upcoming elimination
But then it is possible Christopher & Kye could be bottom 2? Idea of seeing Barlow suffer may appeal to people and put them off voting for either of his last two.
Short term this appeals, 5 days in the papers before its forgtten about. Then basically when he as 1 act, Gary’s role is minimized and long term it would have a negative effect on the following 8 weeks (or whatever remaining)?
They could leave it 2 weeks before they do that and still have just as good of an effect.
I think Shaky is in trouble irregardless of Gary things. Whether he’s eliminated is one thing but he could definitely be B2
Agree on MK1, but think Lucy’s fan base is too significant for her to be in immediate danger. I also suspect Jade is popular – she has a distinctive niche. Of the “favoured” acts, I think Jahmene is in the most danger, but I also can’t see him going just yet. Can we expect an MK1 deramp next week? Personally I was amazed they weren’t bottom 2 this week…
I would have suspected GMD3s fan base was much higher than Lucy’s going into the lives. Since they had already been established. This didnt stop them entering bottom 2.
Problem for me is, since the lives she has been average. I think her Peak was her first song “beer fear” because it was unique it had fun lyrics and a catch to it. Aswell as humor.
Since then she has been downhill and has become very average.
I think she will definitely be safe, in a sing off. But bottom two large price at 13-2.
Sorry to hear about losses incurred last night, esp Daniel, Boki, Nugg, (it can be a dangerous game.) My “get in there comment” last night not one of my best timed comments on Sofabet but I did put up Melanie for bottom two yesterday afternoon against her pimp slot etc.
Even great singers get it wrong sometimes or should I say a backing singer is never a lead vocalist! I saw here about Melaine maybe not wanting to do the tour but Melaine has done BV’s in every arena in the country they just never mentioned it!
I also said handy until figured out what was going on. i just wasn’t comfortable with it, I got a serious fright last weekend and had to go chasing a four figure sum with more to get it back out, which I just about managed to limit the damage so I was not up for it last night but did have some on D3 during the sing off as a hedge.
The show was over by the time Melaine sang on Saturday, this will change though when it comes to two songs etc. later in the competition. I also posted re trouble in the camp a while back, remember Andrew? It is coming to the fore, but the bottom line is these producers have got it wrong again.
Did anyone notice how at the start last night Jade sang straight after Ella and shone a little, that’s twice in one weekend strange edit around Ella. Just an observation.
Lets look forward to next weekend and trying to get the wounded Sofabetters back on an even playing field for 2012,
Wonder who will get the Euro thrash beat Daniel?
I do indeed remember, Donald. Insights from the camp always welcome.
Hi Donald, I am leaving XF betting alone for a while and gonna just enjoy the show for next couple of weeks. Last weeks shock dented my bank 🙁
My e mail is patj1972@yahoo.com BTW
Could it be that UJ polled very badly in both votes and the producers are keeping their BB options open?
Hi Bookshack, could be… although if both boybands have been polling poorly, it might make more sense to double down on one asap. They could try a comeback narrative with D3 but having been bottom two already does rather make it hard to generate excitement about them.
I wondered if the opposite might be true – maybe UJ are polling well enough that they think it’s no danger to them to keep D3 around??
Yes agree can’t see Gary losing 3 acts on the bounce. Also you are right and as I posted earlier about the make up of the UK Tour. For the next 2 weeks you just need to work out who they’d rather not have on tour. Obviously Rylan will go on tour. 3 groups? I think not. Can Jade cope with a 2 month tour away from child? They will take at least one over on tour.
Seeing as this week is club classics week, I expect a plethora of atrocious performances, especially from Shakin Scouser, Lucy, Jade, Ella, James and Jahmene. The bottom two will be especially hard to predict for this reason, especially when you add Rylan and MK1 to that list (acts you would actually expect to do well this week). I think Kye will be safe this week (my surprise tip to win outright), as will Union J and District 3 from the sympathy bounce.
I expect at least one act to be pimped this week with overly negative comments, club classics week offers bags of potential for this to happen since we can expect to get car crash performances from usually very good acts (think Niki Evans doing Hot Stuff on Disco Week in series 4). I even think this week can even turn Shakin Scouser into something of a joke act much like Daniel Evans in series 4, where even though he was a normal singer, a hilariously bad disco week performance brought out really bad comments from Simon and Louis, which led to Chris Moyles mocking him and stirring people up to vote for him to annoy them. Something similar might happen with Shakey this week and it might just zoom him into week 4. Still don’t know who the hell is picking up the phone and voting for him.
While I completely agree on Jahmene, I doubt it’s going to be that bad overall. Most performers with a good singing voice should be able to adapt it easily to different genres, even if they’re less comfortable in them – witness how well ballad-fan Craig pulled off a dance track last year. Jade in particular could easily pull off a great dance anfum in the style of Rebecca Ferguson’s Show Me Love – she has the poise and voice for it, old-school eurodance style. James has made transforming mainstream pop songs his forté, so I expect no problems there. Similarly, Lucy will also pull something out of the bag as usual (I’m quietly hoping for a George Formby-style take on Reel 2 Reel’s “I Like To Move It”). Ella should also manage. The theme does present problems for Chris though – his voting demographic aren’t hardcore ravers.
We saw how flexibly the dance theme can be interpreted in week 5 last year (“Dancefloor fillers”), with Janet doing Jackson 5, Misha doing Proud Mary etc… if I’d have been in charge I’d have cracked down and made them all do Vengaboys, 2 Unlimited and Ice MC. As I’m sadly not in charge, we can probably expect similar liberties taken with the theme this year.
whos voting forhim? Aside from the cruisehip and cheese, he’s definitely got the strongest male voice in the competition, Add to that his shyness and insecureness at his age which should give him a few more votes. Aside from that,we’ve witnessed for a few years now how bad comments from the judges means people will vote judge to ensure these acts get through (Johnny Robinson wk 3 2011, Diana Vickers wk 6 2008)
Exactly Jake. All of this. He’s sympathetic, ordinary, and there’s a lot of people who like his old-fashioned, straightforward Michael Ball singing style – if my mum watched X Factor (which she doesn’t) I’m sure she’d really like him. As do I.
But will they let him go and have Barlow having one act only?
Its bad for ratings long term, it would make his role in the show limited.
Putting aside fan bases before the live shows, Lucy’s been giving good performances 2 weeks now, especially the 1st which let her sing one of her own songs and reminding us why we all loved her in audition. Meanwhile, the good harmonies in audition/bootcamp from GMD3 has gone down to poor vocals from DISTRICT3, making us all forget who GMD3 are, thus contributing to fewer votes
Probalby good points about GMD3.
I still think if you look at Lucys performances, her best to worst are in order in which she was seen.
Beer fear at Auditions
Tea and toast at Bootcamp
(Honestly cant remmber what she sung at judges house, because knew she was through didnt take much notice)
Mountains in Week 1
Gold Digger in week 2
You would see that this is a decline. Showing that she peaked at auditions and hasnt done anything at all as entertaining/good/fun to watch/enjoyable since Auditions.
This makes me think she can easily land in Bottom 2 over next few weeks (Wins in a sing off though) Hence why I have backed her to be in bottom two at 13/2 and would do so again next week.
Oh I disagree, I thought Gold Digger was BRILLIANT. I do think, however, that there has been some “soft-deramping” of her of sorts – why did Nicole need to point out that she’s a lesbian? Whilst there have been plenty of gay men on the show, I don’t recall any gay girls, so it’s not like that has been proven as either a vote-winner or vote-loser. It’s certainly something that’s not as common, and so possibly not as ‘accepted’ by the public.
@JScouser sorry thats supposed to be a reply to your earlier post
I dont think they wanna get rid of Chris just yet, after all it would make the whole wildcard thing useless. Problem with chris is they never realised he’d get that much support after only coming in as a wildcard. Im guessing he was in the top 3 who had the most votes in week 1 (with Ella and probably one of the other 2 boys) and that scared the producers. They’re gonna dampen his support which will take 1 or 2 more weeks for him to get to the bottom2