Shock horror! An early slot for Maloney and a late one for Clark!
He wept, he strutted, he cast his flailing limbs upon the altar of self-sacrifice. Private Rylan was recapped in full force and the message was clear – to lose this guy would be a tragic waste for the X Factor and humanity as a whole.
Whilst Jahmene’s opener didn’t seem like a direct nobble, it fulfilled the dual functions of dampening his mattress after last weeks gospel pimp-o-rama and highlighting his genuine nerves in advance of ‘nervous’ Shakey Maloney. ‘Ain’t No Mountain’ gave Jahmene very little opportunity to show off his vocal ability in the way that previous numbers have allowed. Lukewarm, complacent praise will have done little to propel his popularity.
Following directly on, Ol’ Shaky was teased by Gary, his own mentor, for his pantomime histrionics. The trembles that once made Chris the next SuBo became a laughing point for that most serious of mentors, The Borelow. As if the ‘cheesy’ point wasn’t clear, Maloney came out to red and black disco lights on a cruise ship bar, bellowing ‘How Do I Get You Alone’ in his best community theatre voice. Friedman’s evil minions went from ignoring him to distracting the audience entirely by snogging in the background. Nicole echoed her comment from last week in saying, “who was that up there?” The message: you are indistinct and unmemorable.
Dermot closed the segment by telling Cheeseburger Chris, “You’re an old fashioned belter.” It was an assassination by numbers. All in all, it was crystal clear. Maloney no longer has a place as a serious contender in this competition. If the producers have it their way, he no longer has a place in the competition full stop.
Union J, who seemed at first destined for the bottom two with their early slot, were set up with a great ‘struggle’ narrative, being told that D3 were rehearsing harder and effectively making themselves the front runners. It’s possible the show wants to push the underdog theme as the antidote for all those (legitimate) One Direction comparisons that make up the bulk of UJ’s public critique.
Union Jack-the-lads went out with a mashup of two songs by British artists, wearing British weather-inspired scarves in an M&S style moment (following on from last week’s dubstep Queen). It seems they are favoured over their Americanised counterparts, especially in this post-Olympic haze of national pride. They are now as short as 11/1 on Betfair.
Next up was this year’s Frankel/Cardle/One-to-beat, Ella Henderson whose mid-tempo rendition of ‘Loving You’ was both more interesting and more in tune than last week’s flat-fest ‘Rule The World’ and did well to justify her place as front-runner. It wasn’t the musical revelation that dreams are made of but it’s Ella’s competition to lose and a few slick, understated weeks might be just what she needs to avoid implosion. That and the reassuring knowledge that Gary Barlow knows the names of the notes she can hit. F sharp descending has always been one of my personal favourites.
My nemesis / last week’s star performer VT’ed next and took his mentor to a British pub for the first time (Lewis Hamilton never invited her to one?). I particularly liked the fact that Nicole’s pint was at a lower level than James’ in all shots. Bitch can hold her bitter. ‘No More Drama’ was not quite the slick triumph (which would be a great name for an ale) that ‘Stronger’ was last week but it served to cement James’ natural place as Alpha boy. He received the first ‘record deal’ comment of the series and he’s now trading at under 10/1.
Poor, likeable Lucy was up next with the unfortunate and clearly genuine added strain of having lost her grandmother in the past week. However, rather than milking the issue or wheeling out a reprise of ‘Tea and Toast’, she chose to keep her chin up and cover Kanye West’s ‘Gold Digger’. I can imagine that one of only two scenarios was the cause for this; either the show didn’t want the runaway momentum that an original number could cause in context or Lucy wouldn’t pay ball in the sob story arena. The latter option would make her even more likeable than she already is – a pretty mean feat. Either way, she’s going nowhere just yet. On a lighter note, the show managed to slip in a relatively inoffensive reference to Lucy enjoying the pretty ladies dancing around her – a rather crude observation but a step in the right direction for IT’pretendit’snothappening’V if there ever was one.
If there were any suspicions that XF was switching boyband horses back to District3 then doubts would have been quashed from the onset of their VT, which included the phrases ‘dated’ and ‘cheesy’ as well as pointing out more comparisons to One Direction. The clip also showed members arguing with one another before a performance that was decidedly and alternatingly American in comparison to Union J. It also saw the trio TRAPPED IN A GLASS CAGE OF LIGHT (with their backs to one another). Judges comments were divisive, with Tulisa praising harmonies and Gary slating harmonies as the biggest problem. Nicole went on about smearing herself in baby oil. Obviously.
Lovely, lovely Jadedeji was off to a good start with a sympathetic VT. It really is a pity that she has to share a competition with Ella, in which only one can represent the flaming songbird and the latter has all the wind behind her. Jade sits awkwardly between the Rachels of time gone by and the Rebecca Fergusons of this world. She received a lovely gold backdrop and simple production, which let her warble like a champ. The jokes about doing the school run in a sparkly dress were also a good way of showing how much she wants the win, whilst still managing to be suitably self-deprecating. All in all, Jade’s best week so far.
Once again, MK1 managed to be fun and likeable but failed to be spectacular. Nicole made a good point about what she expected to hear ‘on the album,’ which is very much an important question for ‘niche’ artists. ‘I Want You Back’ felt rather false, forced and non-niche; although whether that’s more a matter of producer incompetence than deliberate sabotage is hard to tell. The group did appear to receive the first official appeal for votes of the series, which might count for something. Perhaps the show is worried about losing the duo too early.
Next up, Kye was as memorable as ever and the late slots for him and Melanie could indicate trouble for the overs. Kye doesn’t have Matt Cardle’s falsetto but then neither did he have a dolphin-style blowhole trepanned into the nape of his neck by the academy at the age of nine so it wouldn’t be fair to compare the two. Again, praise was lukewarm.
Oh Rylan. I wasn’t sure for a while. Then I heard Brian Friedman offer me ten Anna Wintours, ten Karl Lagerfelds and a bunch of dancing fashion pandas rampaging around the stage to the sounds of ‘Gangnam Style.’ It was not quite on the Kitty level of brilliance, and it sorely missed the track’s notorious choreography, but it won me over and I’d be surprised to see Rylan hit the bottom two again tomorrow, especially after the ingenious dig at Borelow with the opening lines of ‘Back For Good.’ (NB. Rylan was the first act to get his own segment tonight, excluding the opening and closing slots.)
Finally, in the pimp slot and dressed in something that could very easily have been hired from the pimp section of a fancy dress shop was child of the 60s (note: barely even born in the 60s, probably raving in the 90s) Melanie Masson. After a very boring number it seems that Gary as first mentor to lose all acts is the likely outcome.
So it looks much like producers would like to see Shaky and GHB in the bottom two tomorrow night. In that situation, we reckon it’s hard to imagine the show saving the boyband when Maloney would be so much easier to nobble at a later stage. MK1 also look to be in danger with lukewarm comments and no obvious fanbase. As Boki and tpfkar point out, the late slots for Kye and Melanie could suggest that they polled badly last week so neither act is out of hot water. Conversely, in the win market, it’s not such a surprise to see Union J squeezing into numbers like 12/1.
What do you think? Who do you expect to see in the bottom two tomorrow night? And who do you think is on the producer hitlist next? As ever, we want to know.
Toby our Twitter expert has posted the following indications from tonight that you can find here:
http://anly.tk/2012/10/13/xfactor-twitter-roundup-love-and-heartache/
Well, just like previous week there are 3 overs far behind the rest. That could be because of twitter demographics (so they get votes from older public) or could also mean all were in trouble last week an escaped closely so pimped yesterday. Either way it looks at least one over (and most probably Chris) will be in bot2.
Market suggests Chris, D3 or MK1 in bot2. I reckon a surprise can come from next 3 (Kye, Jade or Melanie) but all of them would be saved against Chris or D3.
I still don’t think Barlow will lose all his acts first. I think the producers will want him to have an act in the final since he’s “head judge”. Much like Simon always had at least one in the final.
I don’t know but I might now switch horses for Melanie to win. I think if there is anyone other than Ella that will win,it might be her, or Kye.
Morning, Stephen – don’t know if the rumours are true about Barlow not returning next year, but if they are, might that not remove an incentive for producers to care about him having a horse in the final?
Even then, don’t you think it might be a big ask the way things are looking? Kye is continuing to be eminently forgettable and the audience reaction to Melanie felt rather flat for a pimp slot.
Headlines ive seen over past month
“Barlow Threatens to Quit”
And a few weeks ago
“Simon to be a 5th judge”
Mix the two together, Barlow quits Simon replaces him. All staged obviously. But would give the ratings an extra boost midway through the series.
Just speculating 😉
If you combine the current results of the tellymix and digital spy polls they suggest a kye/district3 bottom 2. Though the ds poll has a fairly large percentage saying Maloney was the best of the night so not sure how much should be taken from them at this stage but an indicator nonetheless.
The overs are so boring and forgettable in the main , that even if they wanted to get one into the final they might struggle, as they would need ensure that either no boy or group reached the final which as Andrew says that would be a big ask on the current evidence. There might even be Two overs up for elimination tonight.
I do feel they did enough to help Chris into the bottom 2 & save Rylan.
I especially liked the pre-written Rylan: “Gary, I bought you a cab in case you wanted to leave.”
Gary: “I’ve had yours on hold for two weeks.”
A clear attempt to create some banter as they did with Johnny rubbing Gary’s lamp last year.
The other bottom 2 place could be filled by MK1 or Kye. Both acts would be saved against Chris you the show has put too much effort into dumping to save at this stage. I don’t think they mind which of the two drops into the bottom two as long as they save Rylan, although two overs in the bottom 2 would create some great “angry Barlow” tv moments.
I see the shows preferred tour places as all 3 girls, all 3 boys, Melanie, Union J and one from MK1 or Kye.
This means Chris, District 3 & one from MK1/Kye to go in the next three weeks – if they can keep saving Rylan.
MK1’s “I want you back”. Wasn’t that the same song chosen for Janet Devlin last year at the start of her downfall? I can’t imagine MK1 choosing it as it hardly fits their urban style.
Agree on last nights showing the sacrificial lambs are D3, MK1, Kye and Chris. I still think others can get into the bottom two but will be saved over any of these four.
Jahmene being given the opening slot last night just before Maloney must signal he has polled well in the opening show, I’m seeing less of his critics bashing him for his vocal gymnastics as he toned that down in last nights show. With the press reports coming out the last few days hinting that he is a role Model, and a positive sob story in today’s son, I think he is starting to look like the chosen one. James Arthur having a fit on stage then having to go to hospital, and Ella only getting press for her relationship with the union j guy. And talking of union j I’m glad the alpha group debate has now been laid to rest 🙂
Dear Sofabet team, as alwyas I would like to hear your opinion again on some singoffs, this time there are much combinations since we are far from sure of the bot2 so I will go through the interesting ones (if I miss an important one please let us know):
1) Chris vs District 3
If they save D3 they will most likely bounce next week due to youth support while Chris has less chance of bouncing but it can happen. They need an over for Rylan in the next week(s) and the argument of one too many boyband stands. The current market thinks Chris will be sent though, are you still favoring D3 to be sent against Chris?
2) Chris vs MK1
MK1 should be saved unless the other overs are doing great and they see no chance of using them to save Rylan.
3) Rylan against D3
Obviously D3 would be sent but interesting to see how they are going to do it if Rylan gets bottom vote. Letting him go then?
4) Rylan vs MK1
More tricky but same result/concern as the previous one.
5) Rylan vs an over should be saved (even Melanie ?)
Hey Boki,
1) It does make sense to us that in this eventuality they should take their chance to get rid of D3, for all the reasons you mention. Even if Shakey bounces next week, he should be easily nobbleable again in week 4 and it doesn’t look like they’d want to risk D3 bouncing over UJ. Would also provide some nice added fuel for the Gary-Louis fire, as Louis could reasonably say that Shakey staying over D3 is not much less unfair than Rylan over Carolynne.
2) We’re thinking Shakey probably should be a gonner vs anyone but D3.
3,4,5) They’ll surely want to save Rylan against anyone. As you say, vs a group with Rylan bottom of the vote would be the most problematic, requiring either Louis to abstain or Gary to vote Rylan, neither of which would be easy to pull off. Would be interested to see how they’d manage that situation, too.
Thanks Andrew. I’m still struggling whether to involve in 1) or not, hopefully it will not happen to spare my nerves but on the other hand it could be very profitable if you are on the winning side.
I know what you mean, Boki, it’d be a hard one to be too confident on – two acts they clearly have no interest in. We can theorise based on what we observe, but can’t discount the possibility that there is some compelling reason we’re not aware of that they have to get rid of Shakey at the earliest opportunity.
Btw another one that confuses me is Kye. If he was indeed in danger last week and put to a late slot, why is there an impression that he’s also offered as replacement of Chris if he doesn’t end in bot2. His odds went from 11 to 3-4 for bottom 2 and I wonder how would they handle for example Kye vs MK1 sing-off.
Hmm – hard to say. I guess it’d depend on how much they care about keeping Gary in the game and, to the extent that they do, how well Melanie is polling. I’d much rather keep MK1 around if I were them, much more fun to watch – and I love AnnaC’s idea on this thread that they’re being recast from edgy urban to energetic fun in a Same Difference kind of way.
Here’s my humble take on last night’s show.
First of all we had JERMAINE, the preamble v/t was vomit inducing making him out as some kind of misfit/creep in need of a girlfriend. The song choice was bloody awful too, no one recognised it until the chorus, there was no decent beat to it – I began to wonder if they were trying to nobble him this early on? There’s something else I have noticed about this lad – and it was evident during “Imagine” last week – and it is that when he warbles at his most warblishish he goes out of tune – with ‘Imagine’ he went completely out of key at the end but luckily for him the pianist picked up on it and virtually stopped playing. I’m beginning to doubt if this lad has the overall appeal to win the show, he’s too simpering and wet and needs to go out and drink ten pints and get into a couple of brawls instead of trying to push his sexual vulnerability at the already oversubscribed Girls market. At least he looks the part now. Just needs to stop being such a wuss and he might still make it. Mummies and not daughters will vote for him and with voting straight away didn’t perform in the death slot. 60/100 Safe.
SHAKY MALONEY comes across to me as a little false when playing up his Scouse accent like Cilla used to do on “hurr” show. Is he really this wet and shaky? So it would seem. The song was a bad choice, in the wrong key for him and he started on a dreadfully wrong note and it didn’t get much better although to be fair it improved a bit with the higher notes at the end. My missus said he “sounds like a pub singer” which he did and he went out of tune like one as well. Muted applause was more than he deserved – I would rather mash my tongue flat with a steak hammer than listen to this rubbish – bloomin awful. And as for Nicole saying she was impressed well the two deserve each other – shame they can’t go somewhere “Alone” themselves. Overall it was crap. Liverpool kept two Scousers in for several weeks last year but those lads could sing. This lad can’t and should never have been put through. The knife was twisted with the voting reminder extract containing a horrible bum note just so no one forgets how crap he is. 35/100 Bottom two.
UNION J had a sympathetic VT and Dermots interview focussed on their sex appeal, hard work and improvement. The song choice was good and didn’t rely too much on backing tracks and there were few bum notes. The introduction of 1D was for 1D’s benefit rather than theirs but success succeeds and all round this was a good performance. One of the lads has an excellent voice (not the first singer who was poor) I think the lad is George they brought in from outside. The audience reaction was startling after the muted applause for Shaky. Well done lads. 66/100 Safe.
ELLA’s vt/t emphasized her girl-next-door appeal and innocence but she has had a makeover and comes across as more grown up and quite fanciable. She sings in beautiful tune, with emphasis in the right places, a cry in her voice, an amazing range. Class act. Reminds me of a young Barbara Streisand. As a recording artist yep, that good. 75/100. Safe.
JAMES ARTHUR was portrayed in the v/t in an empty pub so that didn’t particularly enhance his image. He was also fed a rubbish song with minimum staging and backing tracks, and he needs his teeth fixing – BUT (and a big BUT) this lad is a really, really good singer, he has a real feel and anguish in his voice (“pain” said tulisa) and gave a very good performance. This is the alpha male. One of these days his mentors will get everything else in place and this lad will go a long way- maybe to the final. 61/100 Safe.
LUCY SPRAGGON was introduced in tears reflecting on her bereavement –I think it was an abominable thing of ITV to do and shows how low they will stoop to get people ringing in – Lucy asks that she is judged on her performance and not her sorrow but in that case why on earth do the producers make her play it up? Really bad taste. Fortunately we had some more of her Victoria wood type interpretation of songs and it was very good especially the rapping – this girl has real talent and will get a recording deal but she is not winning material because her voice is not good enough. The blue rinse brigade might not be switched on by her personal life but that is played down at the moment. The crowd loved her perfoprmance and it is safe to assume the folks at home did too. Very good performance. 57/100 Safe.
DISTRICT 3 seem nice pleasant lads but the v/t showed them discussing their routine with Louis which is hardly enhancing viewing, and there was a pretend argument about the song choice. Louis set the viewers up to wait for a “brilliant vocal harmony” and to be fair it was ok but a long way from brilliant. Problem is these lads are not good individual singers and the key of the song was too low for them – their performance was not as good as Union J’s and if there is one of the bands to be in the bottom two it is this bunch of average vocalists who look like M & S mail order models but sing like karaoke regulars in Blackpool. Gary was spot on about the harmonies being out and in the wrong key and the awful last note. Even the tone deaf sycophantic Nicole knifed them in the front – as for Louis saying they were a “world class harmony band” well that was the biggest joke of the evening. Even the lads knew they’d bombed it at the end. This is The Risk all over again. 46/100 Bottom 2
JADE ELLIS is a very appealing young lady and a dark horse for this competition. Her vocals were very good tonight; her image was too, the song choice was excellent. She looked and sounded great – just her and a non ott piano arrangement with some soft strings near the end. I put her vocal performance second only to Ella and she deserved all the praise she received. This girl could get to the final if she proves herself as competent in the forthcoming weeks. 69/100 Safe.
MK 1 v/t was positive except for that idiot Louis Walsh trying to sound cool and urban – what a Richard Turpin he is – but at least MK1 are likeable. Charlie is a really good singer, vibrant, dynamic and trendy but the bloke is not in the same class although he raps textspeak which is all the rage with the youngsters these days. The song choice was poor – I mean really poor but the audience liked them and so did the judges except Nicole who referred to the performance as a bit “Glee”. What’s wrong with Glee? “We need votes” said Louis. Yes you do but you should get them. Must up their game though or go out soon. . 49/100 Safe for now.
KYE STONES the singing sweep had some positive v/t – he looks really cute as well, a bit like a young Rodney in Fools and Horses. Unfortunately he started badly with an unknown song, and the choppy range was a challenge he didn’t meet. He isn’t anything near as good as Matt Cardle even if he warmed up near the end. Average performance dotted with bum notes I’m afraid, the audience reaction was muted and they got it right. Nicole said the performance did not set her on fire, Louis said there was something missing and he was bored, and I’m afraid for once I agree with Louis. Kye has to up his game or he is going to be in trouble although good on him answering Louis back and pleading for votes. Disappointing performance but still cute enough to be safe. 52/100 For now.
The show needs RYLAN because he is controversial and while his vocals do not justify his place in the line up he puts bums on seats ie increases advertising revenue. Seeing him blub after the comments last week was pathetic, but that’s what he is, pathetic. No surprise then he received the full treatment and as anticipated by many on Sofabet they threw the kitchen sink at him to try and keep him in. His performance didn’t really matter, when someone is as entertaining as this huge fluffy ball of honeylove you don’t listen to what he has to sing, you just like to watch him and wince. Fabulous entertainment and not at all bad vocals. It was not the worst performance of the night by a long way that belonged to Shaky. To hear him start off with Gary’s song was hilarious and the disco mash he broke into was very entertaining. I now understand why this weirdo is in the show and I enjoyed his act immensely, the sheer campness of it- he is so utterly awful he is brilliant. Loved it. 58/100 Safe.
MELANIE is the most accomplished vocalist in the competition on pure technical ability, and as this is a singing competition so she should be doing well. She also seems to be a really pleasant, humble, modest person and she has tartan blood as well. She had a good makeover and looked almost fanciable for a middle-aged Mum, almost but not really. Terrific powerful voice, excellent song choice and the judges rightly praised her. The problem is she is too old or seems too old for this competition and her interpretation of the songs is dated – age does matter I’m afraid and she is on borrowed time. 50/100 Tartan blood keeps her safe for now.
THE ORDER I RATED THE PERFORMANCES WAS
ELLA, JADE ELLIS, UNION J, LUCY SPRAGGON, JAMES ARTHUR, JEHMAINE, RYLAN, KYE, MELANIE, MK1, DISTRICT3, SHAKEY KYE
BOTTOM 2: Shaky and District 3. Time to cull a boyband. District 3 to go if not deadlock. Deadlock Shaky. I’m backing the boyband to move to another district
Chris Maloney “can’t sing”? What rubbish. And I don’t think Lucy was “made” to play up her obviously genuine grief – in fact, she touched on it (obviously, as it’s been in the press) but deliberately didn’t sob-storify it. Nicole certainly isn’t “tone-deaf” either, I’m not a big fan of hers by any means but listen to her song Amenjena for a true sense of her vocal capabilities. Agree on a lot of your other points but I think MK1 are in danger with that song choice.
Kye is certainly not safe, I’m expecting a bottom two combo of Kye & District 3. The problem is, there is no bottom two combo market on any bookmakers site?! Anyone know why this is? The combos usually work best for me…
Heres’s a thought, the pimp slot, will it be as effective for votes as it was last year when the show is now ending at 10.30pm? The producers obviously now accept that they cant compete with Strictly who are the ones who now have the prime time Saturday night TV slot. 10.30 seems past peek viewing time, this could be the reason why they had the better singers in the first half of the show, are they anticipating peole switching off and going to bed before the end?? Having the phone lines open from the start of the show i think is because the producers think a lot of viewers may have switched off by 10.30pm If they kept the format of releasing numbers at the end of the show they may not get as many people voting. If this is true it will have an affect on the elimination betting where in the past it was the act that sang earlier in the show that was almost always the act to get eliminated
Shoulders, I wrote this last night on another Sofabet page:
Couple of things I think where highlighted tonight.
The biggest question I have been asking is, is running order as Key as previous years, now lines are open from the start and there is practically no SCD clash.
Was it to be on early?, late? Middle?
I really dont think that matters anymore, I think its now all about position of the artists around.
If you are an average act in the middle of the favourites Ella/James/Jahmene, then you are in big trouble, you are very unlikely to pick up any extra votes, as viewers will be waiting to vote for their favourite, who they have either:
a) Just voted for
b) Waiting to vote for them because you know they are on next
Here we will find Christopher. Trapped between the above 3 along with Union J.
He is clearly the target for this week to go.
Now lets look at Rylan.
Acts around him were Melanie/Kye/Jade, not the favourites, not the worst, but the average acts (perhaps could include MK1 in this)
I noticed that these acts performances were forgettable and not highlighted as standout, infact Kye was slatted. Do I think this was a tactic to get Kye out? Absolutely not.
Whats more likely is the producers dont have him listed as a winner. So they can de-ramp him, Also if they know he wasnt near the bottom in week one, they can afford to de-ramp him even more knowing he is high enough to avoid the bottom 2.
Giving Rylan the opportunity to pick up the lost votes for Kye.
So this week for me was all about Saving Rylan and targetting Chris.
Judges Comments to Highlight
GMD3
Judges comments repeated the words Vocal Harmony/Harmonies Group, can someone tell me last time a Vocal Harmony group had a number one? Is there even a target audience for that type of act? They have been isolated with a limited audience. Producers see them as disposable for the second week in a row.
MK1
How many times was “Glee” mentioned, Basically if you was an MK1 fan, then the judges have just told you “YOU do not like Glee, so you will NOT vote for them”
For me its between GMD3 and Christopher on who goes, also MK1/Jade not entirely safe from bottom 2
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2217509/X-Factor-finalist-James-Arthur-dramatically-collapses-live-show.html
Rylan does very well out of this article !!
Also this time last week we started to see carolynne odds for elimination start to tumble hinting at a possible leak in voting figures. No such movement today
Okay time for a decent overview from myself, I been neglecting posting lately but it time to start to lay down markers and observations for a proper bet or two.
Having watched last night and last week I think just like last year these producers can get it very badly wrong and are a little if not a long way off public opinion and vibe.
Lets start with the overs, they have got horribly wrong, I think Kye and Melaine were well in the danger zone last week and you know what they show was over by the time they appeared last night, and Rylan there to really do damage, I’d say Melaine must be in real danger to say they reverted to the Scottish regional support tactic, they are clutching at straws I think.
Shakys throwing under the bus was the most blatant ever as rightly said by Nugg , down to the couple on the couch and the glam picture of a stunner on the screens and did anyone notice how they pulled the baseline on the high part to really do him. still with all they threw at him it was better than Melaine later in the show, that how good these producers are, we should know from last year.
Kye was great early on but then lost it and the flames literally did burn the second half of his performance.
Bottom two tonight, for a daft small punt Melaine and Rylan at this time of the day or Melaine and Shaky. No madness though, I ‘d say it very close at the bottom.
Finally for now my BIG question from last nights show was Ella VT, why have the introduced “cutie” from Union J into the Ella equation? Is it to dampen young female vote for Ella or to start the journey for the Ella Union J final? It is a very odd road for 16 year old VT on a family show, they definitely doing it for some reason.
But when all is said and done based on the last two weeks Ella is as good as they’ve ever had especially at 16 surely Simon not daft enough to allow that opportunity slip through his hands.
Any leaks today I wonder?
Great comments as usual on Sofabet everyone, steady tonight me thinks, fright got last week, lets see what actually happening with vote lines open all the way, I personally they one on late is like trying to close the stable door when the horse is gone.
But at least we got Frankella to possibly start getting properly stuck into. No panic as price won’t shorten much for few weeks anyway. Lest see next weeks VT..
Good luck tonight, one word carefull!
Nugg you near Wembley?
They could have pushed the Scottish angle much harder – it was an easily missed mention in her introduction “flying the flag for Scotland”. Scotland was not mentioned in Melanie’s VT which was all about how she has never previously had singing success and how she is suprised that people can be bothered to vote for her. I thought Louis might ask “all of Scotland to pick up the phone” but he didn’t. Combined with a production that made her look middle-aged (the outfit and make-up really didn’t suit her) and a song which had just been heard during the break it looked as though the producers might like to see Melanie in the bottom two fairly soon.
Agree AnnaC but it is a big change from previous years to be even discussing the last to perform for the bottom two, as I said these producers can get it badly wrong and could have again.
Donald, re Ella’s VT I wondered if it was maybe more for Union J’s benefit, i.e. “contrary to what you may have read in the gossip columns, girls, George Shelley is still available”.
Hi Andrew, I was thinking exactly the same, it puts them close to the hot favourite and a talking point also. the’re never going to mange to hype them all the way!? Who knows but well worth watching, tempted to have a few quids, my hunch says they might be at it. certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Hi Donald live not far from Wembley in Acton. Try and get to a few live shows but getting tickets is hard. So far I have a live show ticket for saturday in mid november and tickets for both nights of final in manchester.
Hi Nugg, cool! There is a certain place to visit.. Lets try plan..
At this point in the series the show needs at least one fun/joke/controversial act. As we know, Rylan has been cast in this role but his place in the bottom 2 last week shows that voters may not be buying it. Therefore the producers need a backup in case the Rylan horse fails to run. Last night it looked as though MK1 were being recast as a new Jedward/Same Difference – bright colours, catchy (indeed, cheesy) song, lively dancers – so that they can fill the ‘fun’ slot if Rylan falls. Voters tend not to like urban acts anyway (see Cher Lloyd, Misha B) so it will be easy to shoot down MK1 when the time comes.
Jade Ellis is looking good. Solo female artists often do well after the show (Leona Lewis, Alexandra Burke, Rebecca Ferguson, Cher Lloyd, Diana Vickers) and as winners do much better than solo males. Neither Leona Lewis nor Alexandra Burke was a favourite at the start of her series but both had a a ‘breakthrough’ moment from which they coasted to victory. Jade could well be on the same course. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ella take an ‘unexpected’ fall with a combination of throat problems and uncomfortable uptempo songs leaving Jade a clear run to the finish line.
I think D3 are more value to go @9/2
Ella had her own segment.
Annac I agree with you. I think she’s great, but has anyone ever gone all the way without a tumble – even if it is contrived.
To all statto’s out thee – has anyone gone all the way without being in the bottom two – or is this quite common.
If Ella does get in to trouble I am sure she will get out, but might be an opportuntiy for a good value bet
WideoftheMark – It’s very common. In fact it’s the norm. No winner of X-Factor has ever been in the bottom 2.
I remember Simon Cowell himself coming out with this stat. They know if someone appears in the bottom 2 that it’s effectively the end of the road for that act whether they live to fight another day or not.
I think the tip to put Chris in the bottom two is the safest one tonight!
The current standings of the digital spy vote show Rylan safely through, Jade a close second behind Ella, Chris second bottom and Kye last.
It seems Kye’s muted performance was over-shadowed by the Rylan spectacle with the Milton Keynes shopping centre (MK1) being deramped in preparation for next week’s demolition job alongside District 3, as Kye gets the bonus.
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1745441
Test
When I saw the draw this week, I initially thought the bottom two would be any two from the first three. I also thought that allegiance had changed from Union J back to District 3. I soon changed my mind on both of these. Sending out Jahmene first was a bold gamble, but one which I think will pay off – he will successfully dodge the number one draw bullet. Chris was obviously the filler in between two stronger acts, but I believe he will also survive – just. Union J were much stronger this week. Not all all surprised to see Ella, James and Lucy in draw 4 to 6. (A third to a half way through is generally felt to be the best draw in randomised blind-judged competitions. Never thought that would translate to this format, but opening the phone lines at the start may have helped). I didn’t think District3 performed badly, but they were slated. I hope they survive. Jade doesn’t do it for me, but her bland rendition got great comments, so she’ll be fine. MK1 were the act chucked under a bus this week – bad song choice, styling and production, the worst performance of the night and negative comments. Got to be a dead cert for the bottom two. I also fear for Kye (dammit, I had money on him to win). When Dermot announced mid way through the show who was still to come he didn’t get a cheer but District 3 and Jade did and even MK1 got a bit of one. Then he had a weak performance, negative comments and flame treatment. Rylan was entertaining enough and should survive. Melanie is clearly now the alpha over and my money is transferring to either her or Lucy for the win.
So, MK1 and Kye for the bottom two this week. Should either of them scrape out of it, Christopher, District 3 or Rylan would fill the gap.
and as for Ella, big respect for the “F# descending” as Gary coined it, cause it’s stupidly high. (I struggle with the F# an octave lower). I only know a couple of people who can make it that high, even in my wide circle of musician friends.
Apologies for the “test” post earlier. I’d had several goes at posting something and it just wouldn’t.
OK…. worried for Melanie now (V+ing from yesterday) – a bit of an unknown song and serious helpings of Red & Black. But great vocal and the pimp slot. All indications point to a Chris and Melanie bottom two.
Thanks DT. I guess I need to pay more attention – its really the kids who watch this and I’m getting some entertainment by playing along 🙂
Being on early is no longer a disadvantage. Its not a gamble to have anyone on early any more.
No SCD clash and lines are open through. Means the running order is much more balanced and depends only in which order the favoured artists are around you.
Posted it a few posts up
This was meant for Alison R, didnt link to correct response on my browser
if anyone is interested the odds of Chris Maloney being eliminated are drifting out. So potentially either a warning or an opportuntiy to time the bet to get a few more %age points
From what I can see he is still 5/4 or 11/8 with most bookies. Hardly drifting
Well Chris was sandwiched between Jahmene and Union J with Ella right after and was at slot 2. They want him in B2. Rylan will survive. MK1, D3 or Kye could drop in.
I think the early eliminations also depends on who they want to appear in the UK tour. I think its 9 or 10 acts they take so they will want to influence the tour make up. Obviously Rylan is in the plan to take, more importantly what 2 or 3 acts do they want to lose early so not take on tour.
I suggest Melanie is one of those and at least one group. On last nights showing that will be MK1. That leaves Chris, D3 to make up the final early elimination spots.
I can’t see them ditching all the overs early which gives Kye a life line IMO.
I think Ella wasn’t given the most favourable of VTs. Was all about her with lover boy George which the young girls won’t like. However Ella seems to be aimed at pretty much any demographic which is her strong suit.
The most significant money today appears to be Kye for B2 with no real change in his elimination odds. Is it based on inside knowledge is the question. I am just sticking with Maloney, covering options costs money also so it’s fingers crossed for me. I think if in bottom 2 he will be gone. (if there with D3 will be a tension filled finale though)
Glad I got on the cry baby in the middle of the week at 8-1 before the price crash. Like others above, I think Melanie is also in danger despite the pimp slot…I had to fast forward the performance it was so excruciating! 20-1 on Mel to go with a couple of books is worth a small bet I think.
I think so especially at the price.. It is a night for smallish careful stakes until we see who bottom 2 are.
10/1 my best odds 🙂
If Rylan is in the B2 he has to go to allay allegations of a fix. I believe he will survive B2 and the billy-no-votes brace will be GMD3 (or whatever they are called now) and Maloney or Kye. They eill keep Kye because Borelow needs a horse or two in the later stages. If he loses Kye he is nacked because Melanie is on borrowed time. GMD3 to go at 9/2.
Just wondered what the consensus is on Maloney. If he lands in the bottom 2 will he be going regardless of he’s up against? I’m struggling to think he would be saved against anyone even D3.
I’ve lost 2 posts today due to ‘invalid security token’ I see that AlisonR has also struggled – could there be a site issue?
I see elimination as between four: Chris, D3, MK1 and Kye. I don’t see Chris as more likely than the others to be in the bottom 2 although that’s clearly what they want.
Happy now to concede Union J as alpha group; vocals much better but still have no chemistry. More the risk than 1 Direction at the moment. MK1 now seem disposable fun; the show is happy to have them in, but won’t bust a gut to keep them there.
Overs struggling as a category. I wonder if there is any truth in the rumours that Gary hs fallen out with the producers, was given this category as a result, didn’t pick the more fun acts he was supposed to, and is being given a harsh lesson in how his supposedly-credible Overs are being received? All of them look vulnerable.
Finally, agree with Nugg it’s much better shows this year, there were 12 decent vocals last night, and Brian Friedman is making the whole thing more enjoyable than last year. Good luck to all those with money on result tonight
im sitting pretty on 13/8 union j top group and 9/2 union j top 3 finish which is absolutely huge now considering they are 8/1 with some firms to finish 1st
Hi tpfkar, re comments problems, a bit of googling suggests that the new WordPress comments system (Jetpack) has two issues that result in that error message – one to do with a conflict with another plugin we don’t use, and one with Twitter accounts where the name begins with a numerical character. Are you (and AlisonR) validating through Twitter by any chance?
Is it me? Because I cannot believe how you guys on here have totally underrated Melanie. Now, there are too many things going against her for her to win the ting. However, hands down, she was the best singer out this Dirty Dozen…and I am very seldom wrong.
she is gonna be lucky to be here next week let alone win the whole thing, judging by the bookies slashing odds on her going tonight!
someone tweeted that bottom 2 are kye and mk1, mk1 to go.
who knows.
@Stoney, I agree, my friend, BUT, as we know, winning the thing and being the most talented are too completely different things. Of course she can’t win it, but on pure singing talent alone, she is the best. Her Janis Joplin audition in the first round was the best thing I’ve heard since Janet’s ‘Your Song’
of course mate, but as gamblers we have to ignore the singing talents, i stand to make a killing from union j, and there absolute pants lol
Agreed- 1D wannabees, and MK Dons can hold a tune better than MK1 🙂
Good luck with your bet, superstar.
D3 and Melanie. Must be D3 to go surely?
Aye they are toast
Rylan?
*shakes head* in disbelief.
Let’s hope so, Jack – too many appallingly dressed people on this programme already.
dammit, was hoping for Mel vs Kye there! will lay off for my steaks
I think we can now safely say that opening the lines at the beginning of the show does mix up things a bit. It didnt in eurovision, but having much more acts amongs others are reasons enough for the opening of the phone lines to have little effect there.
I know it isn’t certain, but D3 singing first as well.
D3 to sing first…good sign.
C’mon Melanie!
When was the last time an act given the pimp slot ended up bottom 2?
I’ve got money on D3 to go so i’m fairly confident, but with this show who knows?
Don’t think it’s happened before (?) at least in the early weeks, sure Andrew and Daniel will be able to confirm!
i think its safe to say there wont be a deadlock this week
wow looks like it will d3 must have polled lowest then
Deadlock!!!!!
Get in there
DEADLOCK
KERCHING!!!!
9/2!
Two weeks in a row.
Don’t mind if I do
Wow. Did not expect that.
dont think anyone called that, i know i didnt!
Well that’s the second time D3 have lost me money. Anyone on Melanie?
Yep, 20-1, but laid off a fair bit at 4.3 just pre singoff
I lost a five figure amount tonight 🙁
Oh dear. I’m sorry Boki. 🙁
how did you do that? i tried to put 500 on district to go at the song off point, thank the lord my card declined it!
Boki, can you afford it? Are you OK? Please tell me that wasn’t your entire savings or something… :/
This is Boki’s wife replying. He just commited suicide. 🙂
It’s part of the game and would happen sooner or later, just didn’t expect it tonight. Made a lot on Rylan last week so I’ll live although didn’t see this coming so I’m really shaken for the weeks to come.
did you lump on district 3 to go on the last minute then mate?
Yeah, live during the sing-off.
I’m glad you’re able to joke about it, as long as that suicide remark isn’t a coded cry for help (I hope not)…
I lost €2300, which for me is a lot and the most I’ve ever lost – fortunately it’s partly offset by the €900 I won last week, but even so, to borrow a moment from my favourite film, this is me right now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbfttPAj66k
I’m through with short-odds singoff betting. Something’s changed. It’s too risky. When I piled on, I wasn’t thinking about value – it’s my own fault. It’s one thing putting €500 on Carolynne to go at 2.4, but I should have thought twice before putting €2K on those wazzocks to go (I’m sorry, I like them really) at crap odds. Trust me to start X Factor betting just before the “watershed moment”. I’m sticking to Eurovision from now on. There’s no point making money on Eurovision if I then proceed to throw it away betting on other things that I’m less attuned to. I’ve lost €1100 in one blow before, when a lay went wrong during Euro 2012, but I made it back over the rest of the tournament. I’ll partly make this back too, probably by betting on the X Factor final in December but mostly by pulling my finger out and doing some work for a change. For now, I’m through with singoffs and trying to guess the bottom 2 in a field this crowded and unpredictable. Maybe I’ll try again in later weeks, I managed OK towards the end of last year’s series (albeit with much smaller stakes).
I guess this answers the debate as to whether Melanie or Carolynne was the alpha over – neither.
Once more with feeling: FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
I avoided this one this week, I thought D3 would go but at the odds that were offered it was a no thank you. That turned out to be a good call, though a better call would have been to put on Melanie for as good as 9/2 during sing-off!
OMG….talent don’t count then..silly me
I like several others just lost a few quid. D3 2/5 in to 1/10 during ad break, so some serious cash just went out the door for some people I guess. What do we learn from this ?
Gutted!
How does a singer like that go out and a George Formbie wannabee from Sheffield get through?
Twitter info was crucial for that tonight. Layed D3 at 1.13 after missing 1.67 on them to go, was way too short. Hope there will be plenty of better opps next week guys
Melanie obviously didn’t connect with the voting public, and as D3 were in the bottom two, it’s clear that their support is not as strong as may have been thought.
Will Gary lose three acts in the first three live shows, or will they try to find some way to slow the de-ramping of Christopher, so Gary doesn’t have all his eggs in a Kye shaped basket for the rest of the series?
we learn that barlow is in serious danger of having a hat trick of contestants eliminated in a row!!!
I think pissing Gary off may have been the intention of sending it to deadlock.
Hi all, first post this year for me but have been avidly reading as always. Really interested to hear what Andrew and co think about that result. We had pimp slot v group nobbled twice in two weeks – think everyone on here would have said D3 going was what producers wanted and a virtual certainty. Is this a watershed moment for xfactor betting (at least for those willing to lump on at short odds) or am I being over the top? Sorry to Boki and lots of others on here who I’m sure are in a similar position 🙁
I hope it’s just an exception (but a very dangerous one). I really don’t know why this happened, maybe they suddenly want to send everyone to deadlock for public to decide? That sounds like nonsense. Or maybe there was a simple reason like Melanie asked never to be saved to go back to her kids? Another nonsense. I’m really clueless…
One of the most shocking results I’ve ever witnessed. Maybe she polled so low that they thought they would not delay the inevitable and just ditch her?
As many other have stated, it’s hard to figure out why they’d keep D3 over Melanie. She’d be easier to ditch later and she would be much more useful in a bottom 2 with Rylan.
My best guess for now is that they have no interest in pushing either D3 or Union J longterm, and so they actually do want to keep splitting the boyband vote.
Lost fortunes tonight. I guess i am not alone.
Did not see that one coming! Was sure that was going to be D3 off when bottom two announced! So my money on Kye to win (from a few weeks ago) suvives for another week (but not currently convinced it’ll be much longer…). Re: technical problems, no, not going through twitter, so I don’t know why it wasn’t working
I think people thought it was buying money. Interested to know how much Daniel lost.
@Tim B:Something is rotten in the state of Denmark, my friend.
Do you think Kye is any good as a singer? I think he can go far as he has the same dull, middle of the road style as Joe/Matt/Marcus and a similar sort of decent but plain voice.
Its all very confusing. I was surprised to see D3 in the bottom2 in the first place, as they werent that bad last night, still critiqued by the judges, so I thought their girly fans would vote them histerically… As they were there I thought for sure producers wont believe their luck and get rid of them… Because Melanies elimination would be much easier to control at a later point, when they needed that. Ofcourse when they went to deadlock I knew there was no way D3 would be bottom. Young girls vote.
All very confusing. Bad for betting, but at least makes the show a bit exciting compared to laughable not so subtle from last year.
But its clear we have to reevaluate how the changes like voting lines, later slot, same price for mobile voting as for landline change the outcome of teh show.
Relief that I covered my main bet on Chris with Mel at 10/1 earlier this week.
Even thought D3 would go but the last minute odds were too short.
Lucky escape.
Or maybe TPTB are reading this site and are playing with us? Ella to go next week? (joke)
Not sure TBTP are all that chuffed..knobbling (spelling?) Chris D3 and The T*t from essex has worked really well :-)..sorry for the serious losses tonight..its only money