Time will tell if lines being open from the start of the show has any effect on the vote. A boon that we hadn’t expected was that it led to Dermot revealing the entire running order at the start of the evening, when he read out the voting numbers.
This immediately reassured us about our reading of the runes, in our 1-13 prediction, that Union J were the preferred boyband. District 3 were duly sent out in the death slot, the significance of which we explored in our show preview post.
Their VT showed them considering a multitude of suggestions for new names, suggesting they don’t have a strong sense of their own identity. And while their performance was better than Nu Vibe’s in the same situation last year, they were damned (as Curtis noted in the Sofabet comments) by lukewarm comments from the judges. Tulisa and Nicole suggested they weren’t having fun. Gary called them middling, and – with a whiff of Cowellesque reverse psychology – said there was no doubt they’d be here next week (translation: no need to vote for them).
District 3 are now as short as 13/8 to be gone tomorrow. They were followed on stage by One Direction, immediately shoving them down the memory hole – as Chatterbox5200 summed it up in the comments, “District 3 opening the show to lukewarm comments, immediately followed by One Direction pledging their love for James Arthur… sorry, who just performed?”
We have to disagree with eurovicious’s reaction to James Arthur’s performance. We read his early slot as the show further shoving District 3 down the memory hole by putting on one of the bigger hitters. James was called a “recording star” and a “performer”, received Tulisa’s benediction, and Gary’s urging to resist having the edges smoothed off him seemed to us to be setting up James’s trajectory for the series.
Up next was Melanie Masson. There was no mention of her Scottish roots, which might have been read as an attempt to stir the regional vote. But there were quite a lot of mentions of how much she was missing her children – a storyline we had suggested was intended to dampen her vote, by implying that voters would be doing her family a favour if they let her go home. Melanie’s kids even made an appearance in the audience just before Dermot reminded us of her voting number.
Melanie drifted in the elimination betting to 14/1, which reflected a decent enough vocal performance as we felt the early slot and the family emphasis were in line with our feeling that she is considered dispensable. If she lands up in the bottom two with District 3, we’d expect her to be saved, though – the “missing her kids” storyline isn’t going to get any weaker as time goes by, after all.
Lucy was up next, singing an original song, which was pleasant enough. Her VT showed her in a guitar shop, emphasising her musicianship and authenticity. She brings something new to the show and we anticipate producers will want to keep her clear of trouble for a while yet.
Apart from the “ouch” moment of Charlie’s opening bars, there was much positivity around MK1 – they were portrayed as likeable in their VT (accountant Will was noticeably absent) and they got a big production and helpful comments. They bring an urban energy to the show, and we suspect producers will want to keep them in if they land up in the bottom two with District 3.
Louis wheeled out the cruise ship comment with shaking wildcard Christopher Maloney, but Gary going out of his way to emphasise that he hadn’t chosen the song this week clearly showed that this didn’t imply the show is gunning for him. Next week, maybe, but we expect the momentum from the wildcard win to keep Shakey around to shake again.
We’re feeling comfortable with the each-way we suggested on Union J in the outright market. They got a helpful and fun-filled bromancing VT in which we were introduced to each by name, and then stood on a box bearing the name Union J (what were that other boyband called again?)
Tulisa and Gary helpfully laid into Louis for scuppering their chances with a poor song choice, surely intended to send their fans scuttling for their phones in anxiety and anger – recall that a similar tactic, used against Simon Cowell, propelled the anonymous Scott Bruton to an unlikely second place in the first public vote of 2008. Union J were shortened to single figures in the elimination market, but we reckon their treatment suggests they’re setting off on a long haul journey.
Jade Ellis, like Melanie Masson, was shown missing her daughter, but there the similarity ends. Unlike with Melanie, we saw Tulisa emphasising how proud Jade will make her girl, and Jade promising to fight to build a better life for her daughter. After a nice enough performance that brought to mind Alicia Keys, she got some strongly positive comments afterwards.
We stand by our view that Jade is being kept in reserve in case of an Ella malfunction, and we don’t think the show will want to lose her tomorrow unless they absolutely have to.
For instance, if she’s there with the enormously entertaining Rylan. We don’t doubt that Rylan would be saved against anyone – the VT of him bonding with his mentor over death threats was genius, as was the Brian Friedman production (welcome back, Brian, we missed you). Gary’s reaction showed this is a storyline that the show will want to run and run.
Kye continues to be somewhat anonymous and forgettable – probably not enough to land him in trouble tonight, but enough to have us checking the odds on Gary to be first to lose all acts.
Next up was Ella, who continued to look like “Frankel running against a team of shire horses” in the phrase of commenter Butterscotch.
Carolynne’s penultimate slot in the running order reinforced our sense that she is being thought of as the alpha over at present. We continue to be sceptical that country works in this country, but the new spin on a Minaj song worked surprisingly well. Her tearful bonding VT with Gary will have done her no harm, but we retain our scepticism about how well she connects with the public. As Stu Heritage wrote on the Graun liveblog, “The studio audience don’t care for Carolynne either. When she finished singing, nobody cheered. When the judges criticised her, nobody booed. When the judges praised her, nobody clapped. There are sporadic whoops, but they’re the sort of whoops you’d expect to hear when a television production team runs through the audience with a cattle prod just to get a noise – any noise – out of them.”
If she ends up in the bottom two tomorrow, we expect she’d be saved against most. But, again… what price Gary first to lose all acts?
There was surprisingly little movement in the outright win market during the first show. Indeed, the biggest mover during the first twelve songs was Jahmene, whom we knew from the start was singing in the pimp slot. Nicole may have looked like she was struggling to remember the Asda worker’s name when introducing him, but he did himself no harm and the show has wisely toned down some of his vocal affectations.
All in all, we reckon the market looks to have got it about right – a bottom two of District 3 versus MK1, with District 3 exiting first, seems the most likely scenario. But it being the first show, there won’t be much between many of the acts at the bottom of the ladder so we are keeping a watching brief. What was your take on the evening? As ever, do let us know below.
Agree with everything written here. I would be surprised to see Louis without an act in the B2. Think District 3 are almost certainties – Gary said “I hope you do better next week” or something to that effect i.e. Don’t need to vote for District 3, they’ll be here next week.
The other one will be either Melanie or MK1. Melanie was quite good I thought, but being followed by Lucy Spraggan won’t have helped and as for MK1, Charlie was sub-par and they, too won’t have been helped by being next to Lucy Spraggan.
So, I reckon District 3 v Melanie Masson/MK1 with District 3 being the first to go.
I feel sorry for Adam Burridge – he wasn’t even shown on camera when his name was introduced before the big wildcard result, which surprise, surprise was won by ‘centre stage’ Maloney.
I also feel sorry for all contestants up against Frankella – has there ever been such a strong favourite after live show #1 (shade over even money right now) – and does this harm her chances for the long haul? Such early strong faves rarely prevail, right?
I noticed this as well, poor guy never stood a chance. Though she is undoubtedly talented, I wouldn’t put Ella that far ahead of Jahmene following his pimp slot and huge praise. Two finalists right there. Not sure about the third atm. Would have said Union J before tonight, but if they are as bad as they were tonight, they won’t stand a chance. I can’t see Carolynne getting to the final either; maybe Lucy depending on how the public react to her.
Do I remember correctly that Nuvibe’s odds after the show were much lower than D3 now?
You are right, Boki. Nu Vibe were odds-on after the Saturday show, having been 2-1 favourites to be eliminated before it.
https://sofabet.com/2011/10/15/x-factor-2011-week-2-update/#more-2487
I noticed something after Carolynne performed. When Dermot showed the number to vote for Carolynne, he then quickly reminded us of the number to vote for Ella. Something to think about? Intentional maybe? But it’s possible that an overall good performance from her and being the penultimate act of the night despite being sandwiched in between Ella and Jahmene could see her through this week.
Just watched it back, Stephen – it was Dermot correcting himself at the earliest opportunity (presumably following instructions on his earpiece) as he’d mistakenly said 5 instead of 6 when initially reading out Ella’s number after her performance. Not helpful to Carolynne, certainly, but not deliberate.
Can anyone envisage a scenario of any other act being ditched if pitched against District 3 / Gmd 3 in the bottom two? Surely if they are bottom two then they are history. Looking further ahead it must be time to lose an over next week if the expected ( District 3 cull ) happens this week, but who Melanie or Carolynne ?
I predict a bottom two of district 3 and Jade and Jade saved by the judges. Not because I think Jade was weak in any way, and in fact one of my personal favourites, but she was slightly forgettable this evening. Worse to be forgotten than terrible. No scope for any sympathy vote.
Poor standard overall for me tonight. Looking forward to next week when we will have one less act to listen to. As a Lucy backer i feel there is plenty of room left for improvement. Given her experience she looked very uncomfortable tonight. In terms of looking for value options a bottom 2 bet on Jade is my likely play, very sedate performance from her in my view and not one that is likely to lodge voters minds. Ella easily the best tonight followed by Jahmene and maybe Kye. Speaking of Kye his trademark reaction is really getting on my nerves already (going down on his knees whilst holding his mouth). Willing to give him the benefit of the doubt tonight but if he does it again next week i won’t be pleased.
My thoughts exactly PG. I’m struggling to see who the Judges would save over District 3. They would keep MK1 (Urban Act), Carolynne (possible alpha over) and Union J (preferred group). The only risk could be is Rylan finishes bottom of the vote – which I doubt – as Louis would vote for his own act, meaning that ALL the other judges would have to vote for Rylan… including Gary (which is very unlikely after his comments)
Rylan @bottom vote was my (hypothetical) concern also, I would really like sofabet team comment on this one. Gary would look really stupid by saving private Rylan, was there ever a case of a mentor not voting for his own act? Are they going to make a mentor suddenly ill and go with three?
Hey Boki, I would love to see what they’d do in that situation, too!
If it was Cowell, he’d find a way (see Lucie-Jedward) – “I have to ask myself who the public would want to see again”, etc etc. But would Gary suck it up?
I don’t think a mentor’s ever voted against their own act. Louis might be able to find a way – it’s not like he has much credibilty to lose.
Or maybe the infamous Katie Waissel vs Treyc Cohen singoff muddle could provide a template. We come to Louis with the score 2-1 to Rylan, Dermot talks about being short of time, Louis prevaricates about how hard it is because of how much he likes Rylan, Dermot says “we’re out of time, Rylan wins 2-1” while Louis shouts “but Dermot, Dermot I was going to save my act!”
I believe the only time a judge has eliminated their own act was in Series 2 when Simon Cowell voted to eliminate The Conway Sisters. Technically they were still his act, but they’d fallen out behind the scenes if I recall correctly. Also, they had been in the bottom 2 a couple of times already.
Thanks, lolhart, had forgotten that.
*that should say who the judges would save District 3 over (not the other way)
Even the TV presenter in GMD3’s VT suggesting the name of ‘another direction’ should have reminded all girls about 1D and even made them angry at these guys who are trying to be like the holy 1D hahaha.
Good evening for me so far, bang on the money about Christopher winning the wildcard (although no money on it) and also a profitable evening after not planning to get involved. As soon as I realised Dermot was revealing the running order via the phone lines, I took some District3 for first elimination, now laid off for a comfortable profit.
Thoughts as follows:
1) I still don’t see Union J as the alpha group. They might be the preferred (and tomorrow, probably the only) boyband, but so were the Risk last year. I saw serious issues with their chemistry, vocals, audience reaction, and it almost felt like all those dancers went on to rescue them, having been held in the wings just in case. Again, if they were half decent they wouldn’t have needed the pantomime argument. It wasn’t entirely helpful either, was it Louis who said “the song was too big for them”?
2)Much more bullish on MK1 than earlier. Accepting that Charley stuffed up the first verse, I still see MK1 as group with most potential. Someone asked earlier in the week which act brings the Marcus-style energy and enthusiam to the X Factor, and MK1 led the way tonight (imagine what they’ll be like without a broken leg!) The crowd were chanting their name in the studio and I don’t see them bottom 2 tomorrow.
3) I think eurovicious is onto something with James Arthur. Not that he’s going tomorrow, but I saw some serious de-ramping. The awkward conversation with Nicole and the tabloid stories, the camera angles never quite finding his face, the early slot and some odd judges comments added up to something. He’s certainly conceded alpha male to Jahmene tonight in my view, and is now fighting with Kye to be seen as beta male. Either they are slipping him under the radar, or they are setting him up for a ‘shock’ fall soonish (or as eurovicious speculates, something has happened behind the scenes and they want rid altogether.)
4) Big winners for me tonight Kye and Ella. Losers Lucy and James.
5) Bottom 2 prediction: District 3 are in everyone’s list, I don’t think it will be with MK1, Melanie, or Jade. Not considering Ella, Lucy, Jahmene, James or Kye. Which leaves me with Rylan, Christopher, Carolynne or Union J. Torn between the 2 Cs but I’m going to go for Carolynne, whose journey simply seems to be getting on the stage, and singing some country.
Last year Nu Vibe were favoured boy band pre-lives then they performed terribly and the Risk were backed instead.
This year Union J were favoured but were very poor. Do you think the producers may switch support to District 3? They’d already got rid of Union J at least once so far so may not be too set on them.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Union J go especially with voting open throughout the show which should make the 1st slot (at least a little) less deadly than in previous years.
Obviously I’m going against the grain on a lot of things this evening. Everything about Arthur’s slot leapt out at me (from the early position and Frankie-esque tabloid-sleaze-implying VT to the things I mentioned in my original comment) because I wasn’t expecting it – genuinely surprised other punters don’t seem to have picked up on it/reacted the same way. (It’s worth remembering that a lot of people tune in for the first time in week 1 having not seen any preceding shows, so have no familiarity with the contestants.) I call bottom two him and Carolynne. At the risk of overvaluing Twitter and sounding like a massive racist (“I hear you’re a racist now, eurovicious!”), I think District 3 will be safe despite the show’s attempts to dampen them because a) they’ve been trending an awful lot over the past week (see this infographic: http://infogr.am/beta/uploads/sizes/458_1349260264.png) and b) unlike Week 1 exiters Nu Vibe and FYD, they’re all white (= non-threatening), have a particularly homely, take-home-to-meet-your-mother look and are neither fey (FYD) nor chaotic and threatening (Nu Vibe). The other groups to exit in week 1 in recent years were girl groups.
Tim and I read the edit tonight in a similar way – dampening on the first two acts before light pimping for and a strong performance from Melanie. I’m not a Melanie backer and had her tipped to go this week, but although they didn’t allude to her Scottishness and did raise the issue of her being away from her kids, I felt this was done in a warm and positive way then followed up by great staging and a strong and warm performance. On my scale it’s a light pimp with option to ditch later (but safe for this week).
It may also be worth mentioning that groups usually struggle at the start, as the audience doesn’t automatically connect to them, taking time even to get to know their names. However, with the rule change this year allowing those with Managemt contracts to enter, many acts already have a fan base established that will vote for them. Although I feel that District 3’s performance and death slot (which may prove not to be so deadly given the opening of the voting at the start of the show and a lack of Strictly overlap) should see them in the bottom two, their existing support could be enough to see them escape, when the voting numbers for each act are low.
Youtube live show views as of 8am Sunday morning:
James Arthur (24,206)
Union J (21,328)
Lucy (20,886)
MK1 (20,588)
District 3 (18,668)
Chris Maloney (17, 563)
Jade (16,303)
Jahmene (14, 095)
Rylan (13,286)
Ella (12,256)
Carolynne (12,129)
Kye (11,270)
Melanie (5,503)
Read into it what you will – but there’s a big drop off for Melanie at the bottom.
Things have changed now the dust has settled and it looks more like this.
Ella (88,114)
James (55,382)
Union J (52,859)
Jahmene (51,758)
Lucy (51,419)
Melanie (49,719)
MK1 (46,047)
Jade (44,533)
District 3 (41,329)
Rylan (40,694)
Carolynne (40,095)
Kye (39,987)
Chris (39,617)
I think the top is very telling. I don’t even think the Youtube crowd is Ella’s top market, so the fact she is winning that so comfortably tells me that there is a gulf right now.
The bottom is hard to get anything from. Overs typically don’t do well on Youtube, so I don’t think Kye and Carolynne need to worry. I think Rylan’s safe from elimination and probably safe from the bottom 2 based on sympathy votes if nothing else. Chris is an interesting one. You feel that surely the wildcard momentum will get him through, but who knows. I can’t imagine they’ll send him home week 1 at any rate, that would make the whole wildcard thing seem stupid (not that it wasn’t!). District 3 meanwhile are right down there and are a boyband – a type that does traditionally well on Youtube. So yeah, they’re still going.
Looking to my general notes: in the 1st live show slots 1 and 3 are usually for the disposables and 2 and 4 for the ‘strong’ acts who should come through despite the early slot. It kind of matches does it, so I don’t see James being intentionally de-ramped.
Also a reminder from last year: in the many weeks from the beginning, market was never right about both bottom 2 acts, at least one surprise was there even with two front runners. Now we have D3 and the rest of the field open and it’s hard to see them scraping through but not impossible.
I got 8/1 on District 3 being first out. Placed it before even seeing them sing or seeing the running order- I bet they’re the first to be revealed as safe.
I think that looks a good bet, Bea.
I’m staying out of the elimination market for the time being (putting all of my chips on Ella outright) but I would be on D3 otherwise.
Good luck!
all i know is 14-1 on gmtv next out now looks mahoosive 🙂
SkyBet have the bottom two betting up. Melanie at 7/2 looks the value to me.
You can go to betfair and take 5.2 from me 🙂
Just seen Ella again. Completely ahead of the field. I haven’t liked an XF voice as much since Rebecca Ferguson.
And I agree with those who say the powers want D3 out. And if I had to bet on it I’d bet that they achieve that.
Oh, I didn’t have to bet on it but I did anyway.
Initial thoughts:
District 3 – first out, dead slot, poor song choice, likely bottom two, eliminated if that’s the case.
James Arthur – looked a bit lost stomping around the stage but OK performance. Safe.
Melanie Masson – better than I expected backed up with a big production. Really not sure who is going to vote for her though so possible bottom two. I put a small bet on a while back for her to be the first eliminated.
Lucy Spraggan – not impressed and not sure how the song fitted into the theme of the week. A comparison with Victoria Wood was made by Louis(?). I think people will get bored of her in the next few weeks and she’s going to struggle without the guitar. Betfair odds of 30/1 to win reflect that. Safe for now though.
MK1 – they were alright actually but may be a bit too “urban” for X-Factor. Possible bottom two but agree with Andrew that they will be saved if that’s the case.
Shakey Guy – quite literally a cruise ship act but because of winning the wildcard vote, there is obviously public support for him but I can’t see that continuing for more than a couple of weeks.
Union J – Despite not being very good last night, I’m with Andrew that the producers want them for the long haul, otherwise why would they brought them back after elimination and added another member to the line-up? That puts District 3 in an even worse position.
Jade Ellis – I’ve said before that there’s something about her so I have money down on her to win at 34/1. Those odds have shortened quite a bit now so perhaps one to lay later on. We thought she was more Gabrielle than Alicia Keys though.
Rylan – I think that everyone knows that he is the joke act this year so the question is just how long can he survive? Slight chance of bottom two this week because of his joke status but short of giving him the pimp slot, there’s not much more the producers could have done for him.
Kye – *yawn*
Unstoppable Ella – she’s the obvious winner and has been since we first saw her singing about her dead grandad. Almost too obvious to the point of eliminating any element of surprise and suspense in the contest. Looked great, good song choice, standing ovation from everyone but Louis, and a comparison with Leona Lewis.
Carolynne – who on Earth thought a country act would have any mileage in the UK? Was that her style last year and on Fame academy? Big mistake. The best compliment that the judges came up with was that she looked good (she did).
Jahmene – this year’s Marcus Collins. He’ll do a good to great performance every week, end up in the finals, and have an album out for Mother’s Day.
Did anyone check the Itunes chart last night? A mistake was made and the contestants performances were allowed to chart- Lucy Spraggan and Ella Henderson were the only 2 in the top 100 before they were quickly removed.
Thanks for this info 🙂
http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor/109794-x-factor-2012-ella-hendersons-rule-the-world-leads-itunes-chart-sales.html
Groups in grave danger.
Does anybody agree that Rylan won’t get the normal joke act sympathy? (He’s probably safe this week).
Just something about him. Maybe he’s just too feminine and girly. Am I saying he’s just too gay? I loved Johnny last year and he was equally or more camp.
Agree. It’s not the fact he’s too camp or gay though, it’s his personality and vocals. Take Johnny last year: camp as Butlin’s, genuinely witty and full of banter, could actually sing, and most importantly, always looked like he was really enjoying his performances and having a great time being on the show. By contrast, I don’t think Rylan cracked a smile throughout his entire slot last night, even during the feedback afterwards. He didn’t appear to be enjoying his performance, instead executing it passionlessly. There was no banter with the judges, he just stood there looking sour and saying that he “wants” it and he’ll “improve”. Johnny’s fun and exuberance beats Rylan’s vain, joyless determination hands down. Johnny was thankful to be there, but I think Rylan has self-esteem issues (hence the nature of his reactions and the fact he often looks miserable) and I think he genuinely thinks he’s worthless if he isn’t famous, hence his trying out for all these different shows. Johnny was fun and funny; Rylan is funny but not fun. Ergo: they’ll only be able to get him so far. Also, he hits the notes but his vocals are very strained.
I laughed when Louis said something to Christopher Maloney about his nerves and mentioned cruise ships.
I think we may have the beginnings of a Misha B bullygate storyline. Louis will be instructed to say something like “Christopher I can’t believe you were that nervous last week, you’ve been singing to audiences for years”. Gary will then be scripted to nobly defend Christopher and be appalled by Louis’ lack of professionalism.
James Arthur has certainly not been relegated to gamma male – if anything, quite the opposite. Received official approval from 1D, was praised to the skies in his feedback, and was lent upon to perform the ‘memory hole’ function for the doomed District 3 (which he did very effectively). It was interesting to hear Laura ‘ Hot To’ Trott also pledge her support for JA. My reading of his ‘sleazy VT’ was a) that it was an attempt to leaven his seriousness with some ribald humour, and b) to demonstrate his appeal to girls. All told, a very good opening night for James.
Jade Ellis – one of the best performances of the night. Carolynne – a pleasant surprise (I liked her).
District 3 first to go. Seems a near-certainty now.
im sorry but jahmene is now as short as 1/2 to be top boy when he was around 7/4 yesterday, arthur stomping around on stage with excessive rapping has done his chances no good whatsoever
an absolute classic from louis last night, show wouldnt be the same without him
Toby’s Twitter stats are up –
http://anly.tk/2012/10/07/xfactor-live-finals-week-1-on-twitter/
Those stats are interesting. I would say that it’s hard to gauge anything about the overs because it will be non-twitterers voting for them. With that said, I think those twitter results look most ominous for MK1, who surely 90%+ of their audience uses twitter. We’ll see.
I have to say Union J should go they were far worse boyband but I agree District 3 seem to be the ones to go by producer choice. District 3 and MK1 bottom 2 perhaps.
Though if be surprised if no over is in bottom 2. I think Kye could be good small bet at biggish odds.
Avid sofabet reader and first time poster. I’m struggling to see anyone beyond District 3 getting the heave-ho this evening. They were unceremoniously thrown down the memory hole and concreted over – efficiently and ruthlessly executed. Might we see some de-ramping of Ella over the next few weeks in an attempt to stop this series from being a total procession? They can safely turn down the gas on her for a while, she won’t be in any danger of elimination and they still have plenty of fodder to run through before the important business of ‘getting serious’.
Welcome to Sofabet, Buster. I think you’re right. If I had to guess, I’d say they’d put Ella on second next week, to send whoever was given the death slot down the memory hole, and to give others a chance to shine in later positions.
I agree with point #3. It was very clear who the alpha, beta and gamma acts were in each category. Some of these we knew already, but Jahmene definitely takes alpha boy. I was quite surprised by him actually. I didn’t rate him much before and thought he’d falter in the live shows. Union J the intended alpha group as we thought, but they were quite poor and I still wouldn’t be surprised to see them in a sing off with District 3. Anyway, they were on seventh? so not so alpha overall or they’d have put them later in the running order.
That should have read point #3 by tpfkar. I expected it to post underneath instead of at the bottom!
District 3 out the door I reckon, common sense season back, a worthy favourite, a very good male also, and two other very good girls, a group to tag along, forget the rest except for ellmination market.
Wonder will the indie crowd get behind Lucy as a spoiler?? They just might, worth some few quid ew at the minute I reckon. Her backing track was well produced last night.
I do agree with Eurovicious re James Arthur, they certainly were out to dampen, I think Kye could be close to bottom two tonight, he seemed to be in a very lost part of the show I thought when watched it back.
Daniel you must be rubbing your hands with glee waiting for Rylans Wagner moment! Lets try build the kitty on the other nominations before, win market as I have said above so no panic there yet.
“Bye bye District 3”
I must be in the minority here thinking that union J and Christopher will be the bottom 2- district 3 were not great but union J had a big energetic song and absolutely no energy on stage as well as weak vocals -Chris has a good voice and did in the auditions but that song let him down last night -there was no originality there at all
Carolynne Poole as short as 3.75 to go tonight on betfair.
Wow – odds on Carolynne being eliminated have shortened drastically on Betfair this afternoon. Almost matching those of District 3 at the time of writing.
Im wondering whether this reflects any leaks. Have such sunday movements been proven true in the past?
The thing is I’d expect Carolynne to be kept in against D3.
It would be a real shock if Carolynne went. Even if she was in the bottom two she would be saved against any of the groups or overs (except maybe Kye).
Agree with all the above on District3 being by far the most likely to go, managed to get on at 5-1 just after their performance. ALso thought Cry Baby Christopher was worse than useless, and the 40-1+ on betfair about him going is too big, so have had a small bet on him too.
Lucy’s problem is that if she keeps singing her own compositions (and allowing her to do that in a Heroes week was ludicrus and smacked of desperation), and insistes on having her guitar with her evry week, she’s a sitting duck for criticism from the other 3 judges. I can already see it………………….
Yeah Lucy can not win it but can get to top 6 or 7 anyway
There must be a leak regarding Carolynne Poole. Those odds just keep shortening and now Betfair have dropped below evens in the bottom two market.
The YouTube hits have balanced out over the day and Carolynne is bouncing along the bottom along with another few acts (including District3).
Interestingly, Carolyyne’s video rating shows the highest proportion of dislikes of any act, which fuels the rush on her price.
I still can’t see past District3 for the elimination – provided they’re in the bottom two!
extremely interesting data from http://anly.tk/ to back up your thoughts dan on gary to be the first mentor eliminated.
Carolyn looks good, sounded good and performed well. Thing is she is an over aged passed sell by date wag with a toe curling sympathy line about failed IVF – FFS! – well you tell me who is going to vote for her? Girls wont, blokes wont perhaps middle aged men but they dont vote. I reckon she is a really good bet to be in the bottom three and I think she is in real danger.
Good call, Simon!
Also with Carolynne, is it well known about her being on Fame Academy all those years ago? Maybe there is a general feeeling that she’s had her chance in this medium and that if she was going to get anywhere she’s have already done it.
she may fall into the bottom 2 but if its alongside gmtv she will be fine for this week
Dear sofabet team, do you still have a view that Carollyne would be saved against many, in particular MK1, Melanie, Jade or Shaky ?
Good question Boki. Against District 3 or Melanie or Chris, I would be pretty confident she would be saved. The others would be harder to call, MK1 in particular, but I stand by my theory that producers would be inclined to save her against most apart from the obvious ones like Rylan.
Don’t think it’s been mentioned yet but there was further nobbling of District 3 by Dermot, who said “I liked the old name 😀
I noticed it too, Tim. It was a cheeky thing for Dermot to do.
I think Carolynne’s drop in price is a red herring – or perhaps I just hope it is. She was late in the show and turned out an alright performance. The only problem is that I don’t know who her target audience was with that performance…but we’ll see.
I like Carolynne and her voice, but I’m with Rob in thinking she’s in serious danger. Dire song choice – seriously, a country and western version of Starships? – and a forgettable, laid-back performance sandwiched in between big-pimped Ella and Jahmene could seriously do for her. I don’t think she’d be saved against MK1, Melanie, Jade or Shaky, maybe not against District 3 either.
the producers made their feelings on district 3 perfectly clear last night, if they are bottom 2 they are toast against ANY other act
From memory ( last series ) there was one act that was always punted for elimination , this normally happened during Sunday but the money was not always right. It won’t take a lot of money to do it, for example if you look at the bottom Two market on Betfair their has only been £2k matched on Carolynne ( high 2.5 low 1.70 ) from a total market of £7k by Betfair standards that is a very small traded market,
Cheers chap. A cheeky tenner on District 3 tonight!
Carolynne now 8/13 for bottom 2 , a leak surely ??
Seems about right – good call!
it baffles me how some people are assuming that opening the phonelines a few hours early are going to help certain acts out.fan bases will vote regardless of when the lines open and floating voters will wait for all acts to sing before chosing their favourite. It would only be an advantage if the phonelines closed on the same night, but since this doesnt happen til 24 hours later, i cant see it making any difference to the final outcome
A leak only on Carolynne and not on the other act in bot2, isn’t it strange?
stoney i agree with your comments completely. All acts will have their fan bases anyway so the early voting is almost irrelevant since most will wait until the end of the show to vote anyway and the early acts will be forgotten.
its gonna be interesting to hear how they justify putting rylan through
nicole saves rylan, gary carolynne, tulisa carolynne, louis rylan … carolynne goes on deadlock?
Good call although Louis did say he was saving Carolynne before he took it to deadlock.
SHOCK….This bottom 2 creates a problem , how can they possibly justify saving Rylan ? watch Louis take it to deadlock and Caromline lose on public votes.
the only way it will go to deadlock is if carolynne is bottom of the vote, hopefully rylan is bottom of the vote cos this would cause mayhem!
Did not expect that. Carolynne’s a gonner.
Maybe they will realise the public is getting fed up with joke acts. Or maybe they want a hate figure.
i cant see even the x factor kicking carolynne out after this sing off
Ryaln gone. Up first in the sing-off. Think pretty much all the acts that went up first went last season.
that was bang out of order of barlow then, rylan didnt deserve that
OMG they have really plummeted the depths on this one.
Can’t believe that. Anything for some extra ratings, eh?
Classic x factor, controversy the oxygen of publicity!!!!!
Oh dear, x factor are playing a dangerous game, looks like they wanna lose more viewers, poor old louis didnt wanna do that!
New low for XF…..not sure I can watch this show again….but so predictable once we knew bottom 2
Hahhhaha this is why a adore sofabet 🙂
That was easy money there, betting on Carolynne to go once the sing-off was announced but I didn’t have the guts…to be honest, I didn’t think the show would go THAT low after the performance gulf between the two. Never underestimate the X Factor’s manipulation is the lesson.
haha that was ridiculous, i fat fingered on betfair and thought my money was gone as i backed rylan to go and the odds drift. Luckily his performance was awful enough for me to get the scratch. I agree with curtis though that although all the signals pointed towards carolynne after those performances nobody with a rational mind could back caroylnne to go.
https://twitter.com/AFCAMDEN/status/255035812016709632/photo/1 no more bets on xfactor, disgraceful
Thanks for that, Ross, but it’s exactly why you should be betting on X Factor! 😉
SHIIIIIT – talk about to a nerve-shredding introduction singoff betting! I am now around €800 richer and with nerves shredded to pieces! Fuck’s sake!
Repeat to self: it’s only money.
Despite the singing order being the opposite to usual, I called Carolynne to go and waited until the end of her performance to put the bulk of my money on as by then, her odds to go had drifted out to 2.4 so I got the best value. But that extended “Louis’s decision” segment felt approximately 3.5 hours longer than it actually was. Not to mention the bit when he appeared to save Carolynne – he seemed genuinely confused as to what he was supposed to do. He was obviously getting instructions down his earpiece and not understanding them properly – as soon as he said he was saving Carolynne, I’m sure someone yelled “No, take it to deadlock!” into his earpiece.
When it went to deadlock I breathed out again and when Carolynne went I performed my Rona Nishliu victory/relief dance (so named after my four-figure bet on her qualifying this May). Fucking yes. So doing it next week. But: phew!
It’s only money 🙂
Welcome to my world, eurovicious 🙂
The moral of the story is, you can always rely on Louis to do what’s required.
He made his choice ! It’s sad that people like dermot have to have their reputation tarnished by it as well
365 were offering 12/5 on Carolynn going while she was singing…Looks like the best market to get in this year is the elimination in running market
I have to agree Curtis, I did not get involved in the sing off, part of me was saying that they would force a deadlock by Louis and send Carolynne home, the other part of me saying justifying Rylan staying over Carolynne is so way off the mark even Louis could not stoop that low….looks like the show has hit rock bottom.
Can’t get ITV 2. Has Gary returned? Will this be a quitting issue or will he soldier on for his other acts?
He seems to have calmed down. Someone mentioned him saying Rylance couldn’t sing when Frankie was worse last year.
Who was the man crawling into shot talking to Louie during the sing off? It seemed obvious from that point it would go to deadlock and Ryland would be saved….
I noticed that too… The smoking gun? 🙂
it was so blatently obvious the producers were shouting instructions to louis as he really seemed confused about what he was supposed to be doing, also louis was just having another dig at fakey shakey on the xtra factor!
Did they all just call Chris a diva? Is that a sign for who will sing off against Rylance next week?
I bet a LITTLE bit on Carolynne to go during the sing off. But I already had her to go at 26.0!!! Wasn’t the massive win it could’ve been though because I only put a small stake on plus I had a lot on District 3 to go. Was glad to have won on some lays too; Melanie for bottom 2, Union J for bottom 2 and MK1 to go.
I was too slow. I realised when he was dithering what was going on but I had resigned myself to being a coward and not betting so I wasn’t ready to react to it. I’ll learn, next week, I’ll be ready. I feel pretty upset about this week because I lost money on District 3 not going and then choked at the opportunity to win it back with interest.
Despite the fact that it leaves a bit of a nasty taste in the mouth as she was the better singer- hell, any other act is a better singer, she did get the lowest number of votes. I can’t believe ITV would risk fixing that after all the controvesy a few years back.
If I may be so bold as to offer a few thoughts from the UK’s premier X Factor betting website (now mothballed).
I made a big (for me!!) profit on Rylan staying. Deadlock was obvious. You then just take a view on the punters edging Rylan into position 12. That was the only thing they couldn’t fix.
Lots of guff here about other historical indicators, but this is a new season and there is one simple simple word to remember.
Ratings.
Good on you Richard – same here! How come your site’s mothballed?
well in true fix-factor tradition,it just goes to show that even the show itself does now not care about how it persieved by the public.RYLAN was so gone but then little louis had no choice but to keep him in at the will of the producers.
Its a real shame such tactics are in force now that even the judges dont care how they are seen.Louis is a fall guy ,but the real looser is SIMON COWELL his viewing figures are so far down that even he cant help this show now,its lost its appeal not only to the viewers but also to the money makers.
I think it’s prudent to think a little more about how the voting change might affect the effect of the running order after the 9th and 12th performers ended in the bottom two.
There are certainly a lot of other factors the may have uniquely depressed Carolynne’s and Rylan’s votes relative to the others’, but after eyeballing previous years’ results, it seems that there hasn’t been a similar bottom two order-wise since series 3. Something to keep in mind…
I’m not sure an extra hour makes that mouch of a difference when there are 24h to vote…
What I rather suspect is….. I’m not in the UK and not votingand wasn’t paying attention to voting details, but I’ve read somewhere that now mobile voting costs the same as BT landlines…. Wouldn’t this make a bigger difference? Teenies being able to multivote more? Saving the likes of District3?
Well done to those who profited from tonight’s result. I’m down a few quid after hedging my Melanie bet with one on GMTV3 but there’s always next week…
Despite the drama of Louis prevaricating and Gary stomping off, the result ultimately went to the public vote so was entirely fair in my view and proves my point that we don’t do country in this er…country.
I hate to say I told you so about District 3 being popular enough to be safe, but… I told you so ;). Joined Rob and fiveleaves in laying them despite the prevailing opinion here.
First week result: €908.41, around €700 of which was from the singoff. I made around €130 on backing Carolynne to go before the announcement of the bottom two and another ~€140 on a long-odds bet of Rylan/Carolynne as bottom two. These were offset by losses in other areas. All in all I’m pleased 🙂
Glad to see I’m not the only one who thought James Arthur was being (heavily) dampened judging by a couple of the comments. I’ve no regrets on the bets I took on him as they were value. Let’s see how this develops 🙂
So where did the leak come from then as Carolynne’s odds to be eliminated shortened from mid-teens to around 3 this afternoon?
Was out and missed it all….what were rylan’s / carolynne’s odds during the sing off? What was the highest anyone got matched on caro?
Odds I got matched on Carolynne to go: 17.5 earlier in the week, 8 yesterday night, 5 this afternoon, 3.5 before the bottom two announcement during the show, and 2.4 during her excellent singoff vocal.
Quite disgusting really and it’s sad for Louis he has to be seen as an idiot. What about Gary? Genuinely aggrieved or is all of this done for ratings?
To all the people saying the show has hit new lows etc. – erm, Jedward? Wagner? Katie Waissel? Carolynne’s beautiful with a beautiful voice, but there’s no mileage in the show keeping someone around who polls bottom from the penultimate slot. It’s business. Moreover, as punters, you should actively welcome situations like tonight’s as they offer by far the best singoff value. I’d much rather be whacking a lump sum on Carolynne to go against Rylan at 2.4(!!!) than Sophie Habibis to go against Misha B at 1.1 or something. Yep, it’s bad for Carolynne, but it’s good for your wallet. Deal.
The man of morality changes his tune as soon as the euros start rolling in, I notice. Whither now your exhortations to ‘change the prism through which we view the show’ – and your admonitions that we appreciate that contestants are ‘people, not characters’?
Fair play, mate… But allow me to laugh much longer and louder when I coin it on your beloved Spraggan’s controversial exit. 😉
However, having said that: I agree!
Oh fuck off you paedophile 😉 as I’m sure you remember, my comments were referring to your cynicism in apparently not believing Carolynne’s “IVF sob story”, as you so tenderly put it. Not everything about the show is fake, controlled, manipulated, done to win votes etc. But yep: when it comes to weekly betting, I’m a complete pragmatist and everyone else should be too :). If you’re doing this seriously, you can’t afford to be owt else. I’m not daft enough to hold back and not bet because I like Caroline too much to bet on her to go! 😉
Just because I called Lucy for the win in my speculative ranking doesn’t mean I’m hugely invested in her, either financially or emotionally (I’m not) – to be so in anyone at this stage would be v unwise indeed as it’s the start of October. So you have my blessing to laugh as much as you want if and when she goes, because when she does, I’ll be coining it as much or more than you ;). Love Misha B, didn’t stop me piling on on her to go in the semi last year…
…and the last thing you can do is let emotion and personal preference get in the way. I think Rylan’s a desperate miscast irritant, while I love Carolynne’s voice. Didn’t stop me piling on.