Our X Factor 2012 Prediction: Ella stellar, Union J each-way

It’s that time of year again. Traditionally, in the run-up to the lives, two things happen. First, we at Sofabet have a bit of fun by trying to predict the full finishing order (see our 2011 and 2010 attempts). Second, producers mess everything up by announcing a twist. At least this year they told us the twist before we embarked on our prediction.

As always, we (Dug, Andrew and myself) started by considering producers’ intentions. Which acts will they push and which ones will they be happy to dispose of? In each category we tried to work out the alpha, beta and gamma acts, based on editing at the audition stages. This has been most difficult for the groups, about whom we feel at our most speculative.

Of course, producers’ best laid plans can go awry; at this stage last year, their alpha girl and boy were apparently Janet Devlin and Frankie Cocozza. Both examples indicate the unpredictability of the live shows, whether because producers change their minds, or the results of the public vote change their minds for them. The as yet unknown identity of the wildcard adds an extra element of unpredictability.

So the whole process of naming a 1-13 finishing order is a series of stabs in the semi-dark, and all the more fun for that. Why not post your own 1-13 in the comments, too? Because it will give you the chance at the end of the series to say “I told you so”, four of the most satisfying words in the English language.

1st: Ella Henderson
Current odds: 7/4

We believe this is Ella’s contest to lose, and we don’t think she’ll do a Devlin. The sixteen-year-old has put the A into the audition stage: a series opener pimp slot; her own song; the interview in the recording studio on Xtra Factor; the bootcamp pimp slot; the judges’ houses pimp slot among the girls; the favoured judge as mentor; and a set of vocal performances that have only got stronger.

But where Devlin went off-script in the live shows, Ella so far appears entirely comfortable with the restraints of the competition. If there is a weakness, it may come from the ‘singing candle’ syndrome. We’ve seen her be very effective with torch songs. She’s even turned a modern disco classic, Cher’s ‘Believe’, into an effective torch song. She will have to show she can mix it up a little more in the live shows, though it won’t worry producers too much: young, female singing candles sell lots of records.

All told, we can’t really advocate backing her at current odds, having indicated going into bootcamp that she would be our choice at 7/1 if offered a free bet. But Tulisa cleverly encapsulated Ella’s appeal on putting her through, when twice explaining “you’re my little star”. That mixture of humility and talent can keep Ella out in front with the voting public.

2nd: James Arthur
Current odds: 8/1

It’s fair to say that troubled troubadour James failed to impress the Sofabet team at his first audition. It says something that we now think that he is set for the runners-up spot.

Authenticity is an overrated concept in the world of pop – but, while his mum might have amusingly called into question the veracity of his heart-rending backstory, in other ways James exudes this quality, with his earnest delivery, guitar, lack of good looks and numerous tattoos. He injects more passion into his performances than anyone else in this competition. Ed Sheeran provides a template that indicates a significant portion of the public respond to this kind thing. For that reason, we reckon producers are thinking of James as their alpha boy.

Over the last day or two, there has been a storm in a social media teacup over some of his tweets, subsequently deleted, angrily laying into his critics on the Digital Spy forums (come hang out in the more rarefied atmosphere of the Sofabet comments instead, James). I don’t think this will have any impact on his prospects in this competition, as long as it isn’t a foretaste of more mouthiness to come. If James sticks to expressing himself through the songs, it can take him all the way to the final.

3rd: Union J
Current odds: 20/1

You want a speculative, longer-odds interest on who is going to do well in X Factor this year? Sofabet suggests a modest each-way bet on Union J (their odds have been shortening through the week. At the time of writing, while you can get 20/1 outright, the longest odds available with bookies offering each-way terms are 18/1).

We’re not at all sure what is going on with the groups this year, but we’re intrigued. Our reading of the runes places most significance on two interesting things that have happened since Triple J were rejected at bootcamp in a suspiciously highly staged singoff for the final judges’ houses place, despite vocally besting rivals GMD3.

Firstly, producers decided to add guitar-playing George Shelley to balance the mix. We now have two boys who can sing and don’t scare the horses, and another two who look great and aren’t completely tone-deaf. The new addition looks like a cross between One Direction members Harry Styles and Liam Payne, a laboratory-perfect boyband combination. The camera lingered on the result at judges’ houses, and his appeal to girls was played up on Xtra Factor.

Secondly, we got the start of a journey for Union J. In Saturday’s judges’ houses show, Sharon Osbourne pointed out unnoticed “novice-like bad habits” as a way for Louis to come back with the concept that “with a bit of work they could be fantastic”. In Sunday’s episode, Louis reiterated that there is “an awful lot of work to be done” and “the work starts now”.

The narrative being set up is that if they work hard, X Factor could turn them into something. That’s straight from the One Direction playbook, as is the presumed need to “gel as friends” (in Louis’s often-used phrase from 2010) with the addition of George Shelley. Union J are at least as vocally strong as the 2010 bronze medallists, and if producers continue to develop the hard work and bromance narratives through the lives, they can reach the same position.

4th Lucy Spraggan
Current odds: 18/1

In recent years, Diana Vickers, Cher Lloyd and Misha B have made fourth place in the competition the reserve of quirky female songstresses. Even more than these examples, Lucy has her own niche. With her own whimsical material, whimsically performed with acoustic guitar, she is the antithesis of the traditional X Factor contestant. This makes it especially difficult to guess her likely trajectory in the show. But what can’t be doubted is the chord struck with the public by the two original compositions she has showcased so far, ‘Last Night’ and ‘Tea And Toast’.

Quite how much of her own material she will play week-in, week-out, and how she will handle each theme is very much open to question. Our prediction of 4th for Lucy reflects a belief that the high profile she enjoys going into the live shows should give her enough first-choice votes to see her through the early weeks, while her niche-ness will become more of a hindrance when it comes to picking up undecideds in the latter stages.

5th: Kye Sones
Current odds: 8/1

Depending on your point of view, Kye either ticks plenty of boxes or is rather forgettable. There’s his middle-of-the-road voice, which has a nice tone but not a great range; his middle-of-the-road looks, reasonably handsome but not a knockout; and his middle-of-the-road personality, the chimney sweep looking for a break who has in fact been around the industry block a couple of times.

Middle-of-the-road can get you far in this competition, as Marcus Collins showed last year. There’s something more beige about Kye, though, and it’s hard to get excited about him. Producers, recognising that a lucrative post-show career is unlikely, may feel the same way, and our guess is that he’s not currently being thought of as the alpha over. But we also reckon producers may come to realise that he represents mentor Gary’s best hope, and will end up giving him a push into the later stages as a result.

6th: Rylan Clark
Current odds: 66/1

Just as quirky girls have monopolised fourth position of late, Katie Waissel and Kitty Brucknell have established seventh as the position of choice for the live shows’ most colourful and divisive characters. We had a feeling in our bones at his first audition that this was Rylan’s destiny. What has surprised us since is the discovery that he’s the only such character in the live shows, which is why we’ve elevated our prediction for him to sixth.

It will be imperative for the sake of ratings for producers to keep him in for some time, no matter how unpopular that proves to be. Rylan may be vocally average and bewilderingly vain, but he is also self-aware and witty. His reaction on getting through at each stage has been hysterical, in every sense. Expect the same to be the case in a singoff or three.

7th: Carolynne Poole
Current odds: 20/1

Carolynne Poole and Frankie Cocozza couldn’t be more different. But, as with Frankie, producers may find that Carolynne provides the biggest disconnect between their hopes and viewers’ responses. So far she has been marketed as the alpha over – she got the pimp slot in the final audition show, at which Gary urged us to “remember that name”, and a segment to herself for judges’ houses decision-time. We think she will continue to be treated very favourably.

There are a couple of problems. Carolynne is a highly attractive, talented woman over 30 who has a tendency to turn on the waterworks; we don’t think this will go down well with female viewers (and the fortunes of Victoria Pendleton on Strictly will further test this theory). She’s also being trumpeted as bringing a country sound to the competition. But this isn’t American Idol, and we don’t think the idea has wings over here.

We reckon Carolynne is relying on producer support to get her as far as we project, but even then we don’t think it’ll be enough to get her to best in category.

8th: Jahmene Douglas
Current odds: 15/2

Currently second favourite in the win market, Jahmene Douglas is our selection for the ‘shock early exit’ headlines which are an annual obligation on this show. Vocally, his gospel style has its moments, as the first part of his original audition showed. But he also has a tendency to lose control, even when not overcome by nerves, and such errors are magnified with a voice as big as his.

There is also the question of how the public will take to the Asda worker. From the beginning, the programme has been keen to play up his foibles, such as his nervous laugh and sensitive nature. Nicole’s comment when selecting him at judges’ houses to “go have a cry and grow some balls” continued that theme. We’re not convinced that he’ll have lasting appeal to the mainstream tastes of ITV viewers, and there may come a point when producers feel they’ve got as much mileage as they can out of his nervousness and cut him loose to keep Rylan around.

9th: Christopher Maloney
Current odds: 40/1

Speaking of nerves, although we wouldn’t take odds of 2/5 on him winning the wildcard vote, we’ll run with Shaky Maloney as the most likely wildcard winner. Assuming he gets the Amelia Lily treatment – in the pimp slot for week 1 – then he should be safely through to the following weekend, and may receive enough momentum to survive another couple of shows.

But we have never been impressed with his average voice, and there’s only so far the ability to shake like a pneumatic drill can take you.

10th: Jade Ellis
Current Odds: 33/1

Jade very much looks like the gamma girl right now, despite a soulful enough voice and a cheery personality. If this is to get her beyond the early weeks in the competition, her supporters have to hope for a couple of things.

Firstly, that Amy Mottram doesn’t win the wildcard vote, which would demote Jade early on even further within her category. Secondly, that the early votes show Ella Henderson proving less popular with the public than producers anticipated, or that producers otherwise have second thoughts about Ella. If that happens, we could easily see Jade being brought onto the front burner with an Alexandra Burke trajectory that could carry her all the way through to the final.

At the moment, however, given Ella’s strength that seems a forlorn hope – just a bit too forlorn to make it worth chancing Jade at 33/1. We reckon the most likely scenario is for an increasingly anonymous Jade to be Sophie Habibised at around week 4.

11th: MK1
Current Odds: 50/1

We’re projecting that we’ll be down to one group by week 3. Yes, we know that seems harsh for the mentor in question, but it’s only Louis. And he’s the worst possible fit for this urban duo – a style that anyway doesn’t tend to go down well with ITV viewers.

In our reading, singer Charlie and rapper Simeon haven’t been given treatment that suggests producers are significantly investing in them. Their audition was all about ditching “accountant” Will, a storyline which offers a perfect way to depress their vote if producers so desire – simply remind viewers that the dickish former third member negotiated himself a 33% cut of MK1’s future earnings.

At bootcamp, Charlie didn’t play fair when hogging the stage, suggesting there may be a likeability as well as a genre problem to overcome. And producers intercut their performance with VT at judges’ houses, depriving them of a proper chance to shine. They’re good at what they do, but we’re not envisaging a long run in the competition.

12th: Melanie Masson
Current odds: 25/1

Melanie surprised the audience with the power of her voice at her first audition. We expressed our doubts then about how far she could go, citing a possible lack of versatility. Nothing we have seen of her since has changed our minds, and Melanie is our biggest difference of opinion with our friend Rob at EntertainmentOdds.com, who puts her as high as 2nd in his own 1-13 prediction.

Producers don’t seem keen on her, as recent coverage has seen her short-changed in relation to the other overs. She had both her bootcamp and judges’ houses edits intercut with VT. At judges’ houses, producers played on the storyline of Melanie being kept away from her young family during live shows. And in our view, that’s intended to give viewers a good reason not to vote for her – do her a favour by letting her return to her kids, eh?

Though Melanie was born in Glasgow, the North Londoner hardly comes across as Scottish enough to stir the regional vote. And if wildcard favourite Christopher Maloney does indeed return, that will likely relegate Melanie to fourth over.

13th: GMD3
Current odds: 20/1

In five of the eight previous series, a group has been first to go. That’s no accident. It’s harder for groups than it is for individuals to establish an immediate connection with the voting public, which also makes them a bigger target for producers to aim at taking down in the first week, when it’s harder for them to predict who voters will warm to.

But if a group is to be given the Nu Vibe treatment this time, which group? As we said above regarding Union J, we’re far from confident about what’s going on with the groups this year. Why two boybands, when a category consisting of MK1, one of the boybands and Poisonous Twin would have been both much more balanced and much more Louis?

One theory is that this is a ‘battle of the boybands’ narrative, which would imply MK1 would be first in line for a Nu Vibing. Another possibility, and a chance we’ll take at the odds, is that producers wanted to keep their options open on Union J and GMD3 so they put both through. And if that’s the case, why wait to get shot of the least favoured?

GMD3 should be easy enough to nobble. Like Nu Vibe, they have a competent lead singer but not much strength in depth. That can be pointed out (“Mickey, you’re the main man”), and Union J can be meanwhile praised to the rafters (“you’ve gelled as friends, you’ve worked so hard since Vegas and improved so much”). We’ve also been promised a change in GMD3’s band name this Saturday. That’s either good publicity or highly damaging, depending on producers’ spin – if they choose to skate over it in the VT, it could simply leave viewers confused.

We wouldn’t be at all surprised to be proved wrong here, though. As always, do please let us know in the comments below which of the above predictions you feel is likely to prove most wide of the mark. And if you’ve been a longtime Sofabet reader but not yet made an appearance in the comments, then why not take this opportunity to join in the fun with your own 1-13 prediction? Bragging rights are up for grabs.

85 comments to Our X Factor 2012 Prediction: Ella stellar, Union J each-way

  • AnnaC

    Hmm… Jade puts me in mind of Rebecca Ferguson so she could go quite a long way. If Amy wins the wildcard then I think she is most likely to be Sophie Habibised. I expect to see Melanie’s Scottish background heavily emphasised especially as I don’t think Carolynne will be popular with the voters. Carolynne comes across as desperate, which voters never like, and her sob story isn’t very sobby. We haven’t seen much of MK1 which means they could be in line to ‘surprise’ everyone with how good/versatile they are. It’s always handy for the producers to have a surprise in reserve.

  • No ranking from me but here are my thoughts:

    – I’m gonna disagree on James Arthur. There are worlds between the cherubic, archetypically rural-English, apple-cheeked and russet-haired Ed Sheeran and James Arthur, who as one wag said on Twitter, “seems to constantly change shape”. Sheeran’s musical style is also softer and warmer (you want to take him out to a country pub for a cider and tousle his hair), while Arthur’s is raw and jagged (and he’s not half as good a musician – Sheeran is tremendous live and is unfairly lambasted by the right-on brigade). Arthur will be very lucky indeed to get as far as second. There’s an overlap between him and Kye, and Kye is far more palatable and middle-England friendly and more likely to have cross-generational appeal. Kye’s made for TV; Arthur has a face for radio and an attitude for borstal. In terms of casting, I’d almost say Arthur is this year’s Frankie, though obviously a lot more musical and not as bad, but almost equally as miscast. The northeast vote will only get him so far.

    – Union J: no strong opinion here other than to say that those comments can definitely be read both ways – last year the show emphasised that Nu Vibe still needed to gel as friends, had a lot of work to do etc. A niggling concern of mine is: are they too similar to 1D?

    (I’m sure the addition of George Shelley was a mistake – a producer must have overheard Louis saying he wanted to “introduce a member to Triple J” and taken it as literal…)

    – 4th for Lucy is a fair call, though I see her doing better than this – I don’t see her bottom-twoing much, unlike urban acts Cher/Misha. I think she has legs and broad appeal.

    – Agree with you on Kye. He’s hard to call. He could be out on Saturday or win the whole thing. He’s more Cardle than Jonjo but it’ll come down to his performances and the show’s level of interest in him. Not fun enough to be this year’s Olly/Marcus?

    – Rylan: agree but I’d put him a couple of places lower. I think they may not be able to get him as far as 6th. He’s the water cooler act, but will people vote for him? I say no – I can’t see him doing as well as Johnny last year. Camp, carry-on and comic (Johnny) comes over well; camp, vain and preening (Rylan) doesn’t.

    – Jade: I agree with you on the potential for a Ella/Jade switch (like last year’s Janet/Amelia switch) should Ella not catch on with the public. However unlikely, it’s definitely worth bearing in mind – that’s clever thinking ahead. Unlike gamma-girl Sophie last year, Jade is potentially one of the most versatile performers (like Marcus last year) in a field of niche acts. She could have legs. She also has the right attitude and backstory. In terms of her audition, the show also seems more invested in her than it did in Sophie last year.

    – GMD3: I agree very much that the show put both boybands through because it wants to keep its options open and see which one flies. As such, I don’t think there is an alpha or beta boyband yet and I don’t expect to see either deramped in the first couple of weeks. Twitter stats show high popularity for both boybands but very little for MK1.

    – Melanie vs Carolynne: I’ll be honest, I have no idea. Carolynne is more fanciable (and perhaps more sympathetic?) but Melanie is, as far as I’m aware, the only non-English act. I’m not seeing why Rob is so up on Melanie and down on Carolynne, and I don’t have a strong opinion on either myself. Is it possible they might want to run with Melanie (who got a pimp slot in show 3 and an Olly visit) as the “older Scots/Irish woman” a la Mary Byrne? She hardly fits the archetype, but there are 5 million people in Scotland and you’d figure the show would want to do something to keep them watching for the duration.

  • Nugg

    Will post a longer response later, but my initial thoughts….
    Do you really beleive they will leave Funsponge without ANY acts representing him for last 2 live shows ??

  • Ridiculously speculative of course, but just for fun, I call Carolynne and either MK1 or Melanie as the bottom two, with Carolynne going.

  • Jack

    Epic article, in total agreement. Therefore Union J top group 11/8 feels the best bet. James Arthur 11/10 top boy makes sense as well but slightly less value.

    Sofabet are you not tipping James EW because Union J is better value or is there something else putting you off?

  • Highlighted

    Fair predictions I think and I wouldn’t change much. All I’d add is whichever group they decide will come top 4. However it’s difficult to say which one at this moment and whichever they don’t want could go straight away.

    • Andrew

      Agreed, Highlighted.

      Just for the sake of posterity when we come to review this thread at the end of the series, let me take the liberty of pasting in the 1-13 you posted on an earlier thread. I hope some other commenters are going to play, too! 🙂

      1. Ella
      2. James
      3. Carolynne
      4. GMD3
      5. Kye
      6. Lucy
      7. MK1
      8. Jahmene
      9. Rylan
      10. Amy
      11. Jade
      12. Union J
      13. Melanie

  • Acts I’m laying for the win: James Arthur, Jahmene, Carolynne, Melanie, Jade (less sure on this one now…), MK1, Chris.

  • 1. Ella
    2. Jahmene
    3. Union J
    4. Lucy
    5. Kye
    6. Carolynne
    7. Rylan
    8. James
    9. Melanie
    10. GMD3
    11. Chris
    12. Jade
    13. MK1

  • tpfkar

    Oh dear! I’m on 4 acts, all with a plan to back to lay as Ella is a strong favourite but no value – and all of them are in your list 🙁

  • Guess work at this stage, but something like
    1. James
    2. Ella
    3. Carloynne
    4. Lucy
    5. Union J
    6. Kye
    7. Rhylan
    8. Jahmene
    9. GMD3
    11. Jade
    12. Mk1
    13. Melanie

    Guess work but something like above.
    Taking into account that Chris is most likely to go in this week, thinking that he will just be replacing Melanie. If I remember rightly the week Amelia went in, we lost someone from the same category?

  • Tim B

    Can’t see head judge and the voice of authority reason not having an act in the final. Anyway, a bit of fun:

    1. Ella
    2. Jahméne
    3. Kye

    4. Lucy
    5. Union J
    6. Melanie
    7. Rylan
    8. James
    9. MK1
    10. Carolynne
    11. Christopher
    12. GMD3
    13. Jade

  • annie

    I don’t agree with all your predictions, but am still working on my idea of the finishing order…
    In the meantime just wanted to mention I saw over on DS that voting line will be open from the beginning of the show. Do you think this will somewhat decrease the power of deathslot? I know it didn’t change much on the eurovision, but there are twice as many acts there…
    Also it’s said that mobile prices will be the same as landlines. This will give greater power to the multi voting teenies, won’t it? Maybe to the detriment of casual and housewife votes…

  • Tim B

    I just tweeted Jade Ellis asking if being blonde makes her a fan of ‘Marilyn Monroe’ *wink wink* and she tweeted a picture of her styled like Marilyn Monroe herself, I’m guessing from today. I’m taking this to mean she IS singing the Nicki Minaj track on Saturday. It’s a nice song, and will suit her voice but is apparently unknown in the UK.

  • monsieur Simon "Le chat"

    1. Jahméne the spoils will bag
    2. Ella so good but might yet lag
    3. MK1 these I flag
    4. Kye mean looking playgirl mag
    5. James inside a paper bag
    6. Union J starting to drag
    7. Melanie – singing tartan hag(gis)
    8. Lucy – good but one D rag
    9. Rylan Polythene yearly fag
    10. Carolynne Poole the OT wag
    11. GMD3 tuneless stag
    12. Adam Burridge in the bag
    13. Jade tuneless rag

  • tpfkar

    Here goes nothing….

    13th: GMD3
    I don’t buy this battle of the boybands stuff. I think they’ve both been kept in as the producers weren’t able to make their minds up even by judges house filming which to run with; by the edit it looks like they went with Union J. So GMD3 go quietly first week.

    12th: Carolynne Poole
    As you say, producer expectations not matched by the audience. If she’s in the bottom 2 with a favoured contestant, she won’t be saved.

    11th: Christopher Maloney
    Shaky shaky

    10th: Lucy Spraggan
    I have Lucy rather than Jahmene as the early shock. She’ll sail through a few weeks with her fanbase, but then one poor performance (which she’s clearly capable of) and I can see the producers wanting rid.

    9th: Melanie Masson
    Interesting enough to last a few weeks, can’t see her involved at the business end of the competition.

    8th: Rylan Clark
    They’ll need to lose a boy now, and if James and Jahmene have built up a fan base, I think Rylan will have run his course, Johnny Robinson style. Could easily swap for one of the other boys.

    7th: Union J
    I think they’d need 1D pimping to go higher, and not sure Louis is capable of that. Could easily swap with MK1 if I’m wrong that they will be top group. But last year, they had 2 boybands too many and I’m not convinced this year is any different.

    6th: Jade Ellis
    She probably is the Ella-in-reserve, but she’s got much more going for her than Sophie Habibis, and if I’m right that Lucy is for an early bath, then she’ll do well. Dangerously underestimated – she’s one of the few acts who comes across as a pop star amongst a field of niche acts.

    5th: Jahmene Douglas
    Again, time to cull a boy, and either will do – Jahmene is probably too far from the X Factor mainstream to go further.

    4th: Kye Sones
    Gary will need an act to go far, but I think Kye might need a couple of saves to get to 4th.

    3rd: MK1
    They should probably be renamed ‘Marmite1’ One of the most original and interesting acts in the competition, and Will can cheer them into the final. (Non marmite-lovers may prefer a substitute filling of Union Jam)

    2nd: James Arthur
    1st: Ella Henderson

    The favourites look very strong this year

  • Nugg

    1. Ella
    2. Union J
    3. Kye
    4. James
    5. GMD 3
    6. Carolynne
    7. Rylan
    8. Lucy
    9. Jahmene
    10. Melanie
    11. Jade
    12. WILDCARD
    13. MK1

  • Louis'wig

    Guess we have no idea if 1 or 2 acts will go at the weekend? Is it worth having a small elimination bet before the show?

  • Chatterbox5200

    Even if MK1 finish in the bottom two, as the only “Urban Act”, I can see them being saved for a couple of weeks. As Rylan is likely to generate controversy (and headlines/press coverage), I feel he will also not be allowed to leave too early.

    The trend of groups being eliminated early, may well end this year, as all three groups already have built up a certain following prior to the show. The problem of the voting public not knowing the names of the group members, may not prove as important at the start when the vote is shared across more acts, when the fan base may be sufficient to see them through.

    As they will want to open the show with a bang, If there is any truth in Melanie’s song choice, I can see her getting the death slot with lots of pyrotechnics. This will enable Gary to say “What a great opening to the show” and if Christopher is the wildcard, he will be prime to lose an act in the first vote.

    So here goes….

    1. Ella Henderson
    2. James Arthur
    3. Kye Soanes
    4. Union J
    5. Carolynne Poole
    6. Jahmene Douglas
    7. Lucy Spraggan
    8. Rylan Clark
    9. MK1
    10. GMD3
    11. Wildcard
    12. Jade Ellis
    13. Melanie Masson

  • stoney

    good to see that you agree with my call of union j being the top group, as i said a few days ago, the 11/8 on that is great odds, and i also put some more money on them at 6/4. Although i have put my money on jahmene to win a good few weeks ago, i have been concentrating on making money on union j ever since, with another stake on them to finish top 3 at 9/2
    oh and i also backed gmd3 to be first out this weekend, i stongly believe louis needs to get rid of these asap in order for his new dream team to progress to the latter stages, the longer he allows both groups in the more they are going to gain hardcore voters and not pick them up from the other band when they are eliminated.

  • Queen Bea

    My twopenneth

    1. Ella
    2. Union J (unless sabotaged early as could be competition for 1D)
    3. James Arthur
    4. Carolynne Poole
    5. Shouty woman
    6. Kye Sones
    7. Jahmene
    8. Rylan
    9. Lucy (she will get irritating quickly)
    10. Chris Maloney
    11. MK1
    12. Jade (a poor choice of song in the first week- and she’s obviously the least favoured)
    13. GMD3

    Thats presuming blubber boy is victorious as the wildcard. Amy could get4/5.

  • Tim B

    Everyone is taking too much from the past e.g. “GMD3 will be Nu Vibed” “Jade Ellis will be Sophie Habibised” which I think is pretty absurd to say for sure. We don’t know what’s going to happen. We can only speculate on the likely bottom few at this stage.

    • Andrew

      Cheer up, Tim! It’s just a bit of linguistic fun, and they do represent general situations (i.e. choosing between two boybands – see also FYD, peeling off the most vulnerable member of a strong girls category – see also Treyc Cohen). Of course it’s all speculation at this stage.

    • I see Tim’s point that comparing too directly can be dangerous as each year is different, and I know I’m a bit guilty of this as last year is my only frame of reference… it can be useful as long as you don’t compare 1:1.

  • Rob

    A great read as always, Daniel. So Ella must be a bank job – I’m going in for more of the 7-4 🙂
    The selection of Melanie to be in the top 3 was as much about trying to find an e/w runner at bigger odds in this field that could surprise – she definitely fits the bill. She took it over Union J, & MK1. It pained me to drop MK1 down into the realms of the also-rans. Also, in the Overs, Melanie was definite value at 4-1 up against Kye, and still is at 7-2.
    Saying that, she will undoubtedly be extremely vulnerable in the early weeks & a hatchet job could await. But the bottom line is, Carolynne Poole is very, very ordinary. A one trick pony & it’s not an impressive trick. She’s a bit of a fem-bot too, very plastic, & doesn’t have an endearing bone in her body. There is a warmth to Melanie wholly lacking in the soulless Poole, added to which as a vocalist Melanie is in a different league & potentially has gears (if given the chance). Poole just has her very bland & one-dimensional C&W warbling that doesn’t have legs unless TPTB throw the kitchen sink at her with pimp slots & absurdly talking her up – & you never know in XF land.
    You read the edit differently because in one of the boot camp eps I felt sure Carolynne was shown in a very unflattering light sounding woefully off-key. Melanie’s vocal edits have been consistently impressive, accompanied by positive comments. Showing her kids was more of a Joe Whelan thing for me – much more of a heart-warming back story to show she’s a loving mum trying her best for them with her XF ‘last chance’.
    The fact Poole featured towards the end of judges’ houses was surely more about the non-selection of Maloney. It actually felt to me like Poole’s journey was already over – she reached her Everest getting through to the lives this time around (unlike previously). It was very much crocodile tears from Poole & the emotional attachment of viewers was surely all with Maloney, and his rejection at the final hurdle – only to be reprieved, to continue Shaky’s narrative.
    The ‘last chance’ story of Melanie should be given the chance to run & run – it would seem odd to bury her in the first 2 weeks.
    Maloney is definitely the 4th Over. He leapfrogs over no-one. His story ends when he gets through on Saturday. He’ll be gone in under 3 eps 🙂
    But, as always, this is all about trying to second guess TPTB, & when Melanie arrives early on stage on Saturday, & she is killed with kindness, ends up in the bottom 2 on Sunday & is requested to sing first in the sing-off, I’ll be wiping my tears away with all of my Melanie betting slips 🙂

    • Hugely respect you and your site, Rob, but I’m not sure why you have it in for Carolynne! I know I’m pretty barbed but I’m slightly thrown off guard by your strength of feeling regarding Carolynne: “very ordinary”, “a one trick pony”, “fem-bot”, “plastic”, “bland”, “one-dimensional”, “warbling”, “doesn’t have legs”, “doesn’t have an endearing bone in her body”(!), “soulless”(!!) – none of this sounds as objective as it should and it’s all a bit extreme, I can’t see any basis for it based on what we’ve seen – you’re talking about someone who last year was rejected at JH, whose fertility treatment failed and whose marriage then collapsed, and yet is still holding it together. And someone who was an able enough performer to finish third in series 2 of Fame Academy. What’s the reason for such strong words about her? Whatever its cause, I hope your strength of feeling towards her isn’t blinding you to her potential or the level to which the show is invested in her, whatever that may be. Twice calling someone “soulless” who’s been through what she has (and who has an emotional siging voice) really sets off warning bells in my head regarding your objectivity (and humanity).

    • Not to mention “crocodile tears” at her making the lives – jeez. Just because she’s an attractive older woman doesn’t mean she’s a fake monster. I feel the way you see her is strongly coloured by something.

    • Andrew

      Morning Rob! Just for ease of later reference, pasting in your 1-13 from entertainmentodds.com, hope you don’t mind. Good luck! 🙂

      13th – Jade
      12th – Carolynne
      11th – wildcard winner (who we predict to be Chris)
      10th – MK1
      9th – Jahmene
      8th – GMD3
      7th – Kye
      6th – Rylan
      5th – Lucy
      4th – Union J
      3rd – James
      2nd – Melanie
      1st – Ella

  • AlisonR

    It’s a difficult one to call before we’ve heard them live. However I think Rylan will be a Jedward rather than a Diva Fever. Jahmene I think will be a Ricki Loney or an Austin Drage or at best a Paige Richardson. James could be a Frankie. Carolynne possibly a Kitty. Lucy is marmite but I think 4th is probably about right. Wildcard will survive a few weeks otherwise it’s not worth doing. I’m sticking with my earlier prediction that Amy will win the wildcard vote and Jade will go early. Agree with what others are saying about dumping a boygroup early. If MK1 survive the first couple of weeks they will finish about mid table. Melanie might be this year’s Tesco Mary but if her first performance is poor, or just meh, then she’ll be in the bottom two. I’ve had a fiver on Kye @8-1 and keeping fingers crossed!

  • Probably shouldn’t have been opining so much the past few days without having caught up, but now that I’ve ploughed through the rest of bootcamp and judges’ bungalows, I’m going to opine some more (and differently than before)…

    – In direct contradiction to what I said earlier, I don’t expect MK1 to last long. The show clearly isn’t invested in them and judging by the stats, neither is the public. Out in week 2. As Louis said: “Are the public going to buy into MK1? Is the group versatile enough for all the different things in the live shows?”

    – Rob is barking up the wrong tree with Melanie/Carolynne and so was I. Her voice is a lot screechier than Carolynne’s velvet tone, and she also doesn’t have her rival’s looks. Carolynne is more favoured and was one of only three contestants (her, Ella and James) to get an individual edit in the decisions show. She also has more of a narrative. There are a significant number of warning signs surrounding Melaine, more so than any other contestant: her tearful “I really want to be able to go home”, followed shortly afterwards by Gary saying “It’s going to be tough for her. I wonder whether she’s thought it through. They’re young kids.” and then, in the decisions show, “I think you’re someone who’s had opportunities”. I believe she’s being set up to go in week 1, week 2 at the latest. I expect to see her in an early slot on Saturday.

    – There were issues with Kye’s vocal at JH and I’ve realised the problem with him as a performer is that he doesn’t convey sufficiently strong emotion onstage. He neither moves nor excites me. Prediction: too beige. He’s not gonna fly.

    – I’m still on board with wee Amy for the wildcard

    – Obviously Jahmene and Chris both want to be there, but there’s a difference between nerves and an anxiety disorder and I have reservations about how the show’s treating Jahmene in particular, whose anxiety is I think by far the more profound of the two and who I think’s going to be a liability. Dr Eurovicious’s armchair diagnosis is that while Chris has severe nerves that manifest largely physically, Jahmene has a full-blown anxiety disorder with a major cognitive component. From a production perspective this makes Jahmene unreliable and unsuitable for the lives (but, of course, adds voyeuristic drahmah when he has to be taken to the medics), and from Jahmene’s perspective it’s risky for him to be going through this – as Ne-Yo said, it’ll either make or break him. While ideally (perhaps optimistically) I can see Chris partly tempering and learning to harness his nerves, I strongly suspect Jahmene’s anxiety is only going to compound the further he progresses. If his vote doesn’t take off and he becomes too unreliable for the show, watch out for a Malaki-style dampening and dumping a few weeks in.

    – Contrary to what I said earlier, I don’t think Jade Ellis has legs. Out week 3.

    – Finally, I’m going to play cat among the pigeons. I don’t think Ella will catch on. To me, she’s a human tumbleweed. I didn’t think her Believe or her JH performance were that stellar. She shares the same problems Kye does – no matter how much they pimp her, she’s still generic and beige, and I find her unmemorable. The show’s intentions and what viewers will actually like are two very different things. Last year’s alpha double (Janet and Frankie) were miscast (Frankie far more than Janet, who was genuinely very popular with the public) and this year’s (Ella and Jahmene/James) are too – it seemed that way in the first audition show and it still seems it now. Ella doesn’t have Janet’s looks, charisma, unique voice, Celtic vote etc., nor Little Mix’s sense of fun or emotionality. She’s Miss Boring and miscast – more miscast than Janet was last year.

    – It’s 2012: organic boybands that look real (GMD3) and have been together since school trump non-organic ones that look like dolls (Union J, who are too 1D and not unique enough)

    So, I said I wouldn’t do this but herewith my prediction:
    1st: Lucy
    2nd: Carolynne
    3rd: GMD3
    4th: Kye
    5th: Ella
    6th: James
    7th: Rylan
    8th: Jahmene
    9th: Amy
    10th: Union J
    11th: Jade
    12th: MK1
    13th: Melanie

    • Boki

      Need a lot to catch-up after travelling back home, I hope you got it right cause my biggest pre-bet is on Lucy, just don’t forget to lay her off if she reaches top3 😉
      Rg Carolynne agree with Rob on her but Melanie is also out in a first half for me.

  • KaraokeSauron

    The last true believer of the Cult of Spraggan. Hallelujah!

    Being nasty, I rather enjoyed Rob’s character assassination of Carolynne Poole – which does a good job of listing the worst aspects of her stage persona (not her private self). Presumably, none of us know any of the contestants as people but we’re perfectly free to go to town on their public image. And as for the IVF sob story, etc: you don’t actually believe it, do you?

    But defending Lucy… Please! She didn’t even deserve to go through, except that (like Rylan) she makes for good television and represents a new direction for the show. But you must have seen by now how acutely uncomfortable she looks without a guitar in her hands? Her complete inability to dance, to project? Weren’t her versions of ‘Moves Like Jagger’ and ‘I Will Always Love You’ the most toe-curlingly bad performances we have seen so far?

    I know you backed her very early in the competition at a half-decent price, but you’re beginning to sound like Simon with his ‘Duke’ fixation! 🙂

    • These aren’t characters (no matter how much the show tries to make them into characters), they’re real people. Some viewers and punters are far too cynical in the wrong ways as opposed to in the right ways. Of course I believe Carolynne – what, you think she made up all of what happened to her so she could cry about it on TV and gain sympathy? James Arthur’s sob story may have been exaggerated but many aren’t – if you’re automatically discounting credible narratives like Carolynne’s as made up, you may need to reassess the prism through which you view the show. Again: these are real people, and in 99% of cases real tears.

      Couldn’t disagree more on Lucy. Given her popularity she was a must to go through, and I thought her JH performance was excellent – she’s a capable musician (not just a singer like many of the rest) and it showed a high degree of musicality. She has a good voice, knows how to use it but also knows its limits, and her song choice was audacious and I think it worked well. Her “inability to dance” isn’t a drawback as it’s irrelevant for an act of her type, as it was for Janet and Craig last year. I agree on Jagger though.

      Yes, I have money on her but also on others. I’m speaking as objectively as possible from my perspective. Her proven popularity speaks for itself and for me she ticks the most boxes, and unlike Simon’s Duke argument I can present a lot of evidence to back up my prediction. In any case, she’s hardly someone to be discounted completely – she’s 5th-favourite going into the lives and LM were nowhere near that last year.

    • Boki

      Fixation is not good of course, whether you believe in someone or you hate him 😉 Lucy’s progress is much in the hands of TPTB and it’s hard to predict right now what they have in mind for her.

  • Highlighted

    I think for now most can believe what they want. Last year I’m sure most of us had Little Mix as certainties to exit by week 4. Producer momentum can change quickly.

    However, there is no certainty Ella will take the Janet nose dive. We all know full well with producer backing that Janet could have front runned and won. Same applies for Ella, but its to be scene what her backstage persona is like and whether XF will continue to support her come week 5 onwards.

  • Highlighted

    I also think its misleading to say Frankie was alpha male going into last year. Yeah I think he had the biggest production, but Craig also got a big production and do has Shaky this year and he’s not even there. In Week 1, Frankie was last boy to be out through ahead of James. In girls and groups the last to be out through was the first to exit (Sophie and Nu vibe) in their categories. Can’t remember overs.

    I think there was no alpha male going into last year. Frankie was always there for entertainment value but doubt they ever thought he could really win. While I think they were going to decide on the Scouse vote during the lives.

  • Rob

    Wow, you need to read my stuff when getting properly stuck in, eurovicious 🙂 You might enjoy this – http://www.sabotagetimes.com/tv-film/the-tyranny-of-x-factor/
    Successful tv trading is about identifying potential negatives & potential positives & assessing those alongside price. It’s a simple case of seeing far more potential positives in Melanie, & negatives in Carolynne, as highlighted, thus Melanie appealing far more at the prices.
    You’ve just posted on Ella & have come up with some powerful descriptions too – ‘human tumbleweed’, ‘generic’, ‘beige’, ‘unmemorable’… ‘doesn’t have Janet’s looks, charisma, unique voice’… ‘nor Little Mix’s sense of fun or emotionality’… ‘boring’, ‘miscast’. This is what we all do in building a case for or against contestants!!!
    My post was also trying to put across a robust counter-view to Daniel’s damning 12th spot for Melanie. I’ve also read many forum posters express similar reservations regarding Carolynne so I’m certainly not alone in my analysis. As Karaoke highlights, it’s all about assessing the stage persona – how they are coming across in front of the tv camera.
    We all form opinions on what we see during the shows. You have seen something different so far. Interpreting the edits accurately more often than not enables me to make a living from trading these shows.
    What happens tomorrow night will change things again. It is constantly evolving, we are all guessing the plans TPTB have in store for the contestants & I reserve the right to change my view should Melanie get the Grim Reaper treatment. If Carolynne ends up the Top Over I will be the first to congratulate you 🙂

    • Like you, I’m a freelancer who partly makes a living from this stuff, so up to a point I know what I’m doing (admittedly less so on X Factor) – and I’m very much about interpreting the edits. I’m just saying, I don’t see the evidence to explain your strength of reaction based on what we’ve seen. All the Overs seem comparatively beige. I’m far from sure Carolynne will be top Over but she definitely doesn’t scream warning signs at me either.

      identifying potential negatives is fine but from the way you completely discount her chances in your original article, you seem to have decided Carolynne is nothing but negatives and I’m struggling to understand this POV based on what we’ve seen on screen, edits or no edits

    • Thanks for the link to the Sabotage Times article by the way – I have a lot of issues with X Factor myself but I’m not as cynical about it as you, I admire Simon Cowell and I (for the most part) enjoy the show and its music. So I disagree quite heavily with your piece but that’s an argument for another time… except to say: “the fortunes [The X Factor] earns in revenue are largely fleeced from those who are incapable of realising they are being sold a crock of shit” – so if I buy my mum a Susan Boyle CD or Tim goes to see Alex Burke, we’re members of the “great unwashed” who are “intellectually raped” into lapping up Cowell’s shit? Right. Never mind. I think I see exactly the perspective you’re coming at the show from now. And covering a Leonard Cohen song is hardly “abuse and thievery of other people’s art” – songs are there to be covered.

      • Rob

        No, you’re making a big leap there. The deception I was alluding to was in Cowell revelling in his man of the people image, while creating a show that reels in the masses via emotional glove puppetry who then get on their mobiles & vote in their thousands, & keep his reality empire propped up. The piece was intended to be entertainingly provocative. Covers can be done very well but XF has a knack for using them rather too often to promote the likes of Leona Lewis. This can seem quite tawdry from a certain perspective. I do not sit there shouting at the tv while watching the show btw 🙂 Thanks for reading.

  • Tim B

    BREAKING NEWS: On Lorraine this morning showbiz reporter Dan Wootton (ugh!) claimed that the wildcard is “going to be revealed at the start of the show” – could they be performing first like they did on the Britain’s Got Talent final this year?

    He also said that One Direction were performing on Saturday’s show “because they’re in a chart battle with Rihanna”. This would make sense given the slightly longer (than it needs to be) show time on Saturday, and would allow downloads of the single to count towards Sunday’s chart as the deadline is at midnight. I think we’d all agree that three boybands on one show is at least one too many. People would be too busy tweeting about One Direction to bother to tweet about/vote for GMD3, especially if they are given a graveyard slot. This speculation is enough for me to put a good whack of my money on GMD3 to go at 11.0.

  • Highlighted

    If that’s the case a boyband will surely get culled. Also, as I said the wildcard could be at any stage. The fact they are going first suggests XF doesn’t see any WC going past week 3 anyway or will invest in them anyway.

  • KaraokeSauron

    Interesting… I wonder whether those who told me there was ‘absolutely no way’ the Wild Card would be first out might now wish to re-evaluate their position?

  • Tim B

    Ah, turns out that One Direction might just be guest mentoring. Either way, it probably isn’t good news for the boybands, as voters will be reminded that 1D already exist.

  • Boki

    Damn, this is difficult, but here it goes:

    1. Ella
    2. James
    3. Kye
    4. Union J (or GMD3)
    5. Lucy
    6. Jahmene
    7. Rylan
    8. Melanie
    9. MK1
    10. wildcard
    11. Jade
    12. Carolynne
    13. GMD3 (or Union J)

  • Dr Rich

    1. Lucy
    2. Ella
    3. GMD3
    4. Jade
    5. Jahmene
    6. James
    7. Kye
    8. Mk1
    9. Melanie
    10. Carolynne
    11. Rylan
    12. Maloney
    13. Union J

  • Phil

    Long time lurker but thought I’d add my thoughts!

    1st – Kye
    Strongly believe they want an over to win this year, and I think of the three he is the one that could go the furthest. Don’t think he’ll fly there though – reckon he’ll be the first winner to have been in the bottom 2 at some point.

    2nd – Ella
    Whilst I think she’d good enough to get to the final, I don’t think she’ll quite have the support to win. However, I don’t think she’ll end up in a sing-off throughout the competition.

    3rd – Union J
    Third is about right for the boyband / teenage girl vote, going from previous years.

    4th – Lucy

    5th – Melanie
    Love her – she’s the one I’d *like* to win, but my head tells me otherwise.

    6th – Carolynne
    Think she’ll be the one who survives 2 or 3 sing-offs before going.

    7th – Whoever the wildcard is (I think Amy)

    8th – GMD3

    9th – James

    10th – Jahmene

    11th – Jade

    12th – Rylan

    13th – MK1

    I’m fully aware that my choices mean that Nicole will no longer have an act after week 5, but to be honest that wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t think she will invest the time in her acts, and she probably won’t be back next year anyway. (Didn’t she lose all her acts early on in the US version last year, or was that Paula?)

    • Andrew

      Welcome to Sofabet, Phil! Good to have you commenting.

      P.S. I checked, and turns out it was Paula. Nicole got Josh Kraijcik to the final, much good it did her.

    • This is obviously thought through and I like how early you have the boys going out in it. I think the boys category has been majorly miscast this year, all three of them. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if we lost them all as early as you predict. There’s only so much pimping and saving the show can do if acts don’t catch on.

  • Tim B

    After a little more pondering, I don’t think Carolynne is in danger of elimination this week. If they want Head Judge Gary Barlow to have an act in the final, they probably won’t nobble one as early as week one. It wouldn’t fit in with the narrative of “The overs are stronger than ever/usual this year.” and would embarrass Gary slightly. And who’s the mentor who we know doesn’t mind being embarrassed on this show? Louis

  • tpfkar

    2 thoughts for this weekend:

    1- we surely have to assume that the first
    Group sent out, whichever of the three,
    Is in serious trouble?
    2-the odds changed like crazy after first week stormers from misha, Craig and The Risk last year. Who should we get on tonight in the hope of doing the same? Jade Ellis tops my list in this category

    • This is wise thinking and I agree.

      Your first two points may overlap if MK1 are on early and bring a barnstorming performance. Jade is a possible and Lucy could also bring it. And: if the wildcard is Amy and she produces an Adele/Leanne Mitchell moment, her odds could plummet.

  • Ben Cook

    I agree Ella looks like the most likely winner, and James will be right up there with Union J as top group. I can’t see GMD3/District3 as first out though, unless their first performance is spectacularly bad. I think MK1 are far more likely first week casualties as they won’t go down well with a mainstream audience, and I don’t think the girl is any good anyway.

    I still think with the obvious producer love for Carolynne so far, she can go top 5 even if she does have to be saved a couple times. For me technically she is the best singer in the competition, and that should see her do well despite the negative things people are saying about her.

    • Agree on all of that apart from Ella/James. Carolynne has wings and skill, GMD3 definitely won’t be nobbled early (they were the first choice of boyband, with Union J only slipping through later) as the show will wants to see which boyband generates more resonance, and MK1 are the group most in danger.

  • Rad

    Oooh, think it might be more fun to comment here than over on our own blog…

    1. Ella
    2. Kye
    3. District 3 (fnar)
    4. James
    5. Lucy
    6. Carolynne
    7. Rylan
    8. Jahmene
    9. Union J
    10. Christopher (if Amy is Wildcard, I can see her going further)
    11. Jade
    12. Melanie
    13. MK1

    I can see Carolynne and James surviving partly due to sing-off saves; especially Carolynne. Kye seems like a good bet to hoover up votes in the Cardle/Brookstein mould – and the show will want an over to do well but they won’t want another male winner and I can’t see either Carolynne or Melanie winning. I think Carolynne is their preferred Alpha over as a female winner plus an over winner would be good for them – but I think the Fame Academy thing will go against her as will the country thing, and I can’t see her going the distance with the viewers. The boybands are a bit interchangeable but they’ve made a lot of the GMD3 namechange – whether or not adopting a Hunger Games-style mantle as is rumoured will backfire or not remains to be seen.

    I can’t see MK1 lasting more than two weeks and I would bet it’ll be a bottom two between them and either Carolynne or Melanie. As Melanie is probably a bit too unpredictable and unmouldable for the producers, I don’t see her lasting that long. I might be being too ambitious with Lucy’s placing and Jahmene could be the first shock (*not really a shock) boot.

  • R

    The numbers are the current Twitter followers.
    Bottom Two:
    13. Melanie Masson (10,422) This is purely based on Twitter popularity. With less than a quarter of the followers that the other female over has it seems that she hasn’t caught the imagination. She is too English for the Scots and too Scottish for English.
    12. MK1 (18,227) (Charlie 32,327) Re-watching them I’ve realised their lack of popularity could be down to the “bad attitude” editing. A few measured comments about willing to “play rough” could even see them as first to go.
    I did actually start looking at acts who would look out of place in the tour but I could see MK1 & Melanie on tour which blew a big hole in my idea.
    11. Amy Mottram (48,750) All the girls and Tulisa have tweeted for fans to vote Amy back in. She has twice as many followers as Chris and there seems to be more momentum with her. I also don’t think fans want a third boy band in the show. Add in Tulisa’s “If I had a fourth spot” comment. I think she’s a good bet for the wild-card. Even so, she will drop out in the early weeks so not to challenge Ella.
    10. Carolynne Poole (46,187) The second over to go. She is in the pack and is more popular than I thought but I don’t see her followers as multiple voters. If they can’t edit her to seem like a fun person she won’t gain traction with the audience and the children who go to the X Factor tour won’t relate to her. Kitty & Johnny were “nuts” and “camp” not the strict parent type. This is why I initially thought Melanie would do well enough to finish above Carolynne.
    9. GMD3 (84,779) I think they will do better than this but will XF want 2 boy bands on tour? GMD3 need to go early. BTW is the District 3 name for real or just a cheap Hunger Games rip off to annoy fans of the trilogy (not even a good District).
    8. Jahmene (61,242) His nerves and over-singing are already grating. His big chance was his initial performance and he won’t last long unless he can pull out another big performance.
    7. Rylance (71,917) Will get saved a couple of times prove to be better than people thought but
    6. Jade (43,778) Time for one of the girls to go. I think they will try to keep her silent so not to gain a following and if she tries to push herself forward they will edit it as “bad attitude”. I originally had her as first to go but she leap-frogged others through their failures.
    5. Lucy (192,391) She has a ready-made fanbase which will get her so far but her obvious limitations are all too clear to see.
    4. Kye Somes (67,431) I initially thought there was a push for the overs but surely we would have been given better overs than this. Kye is top over as he can appeal to a wider audience than the others. Young enough to appeal to students, old enough to get the housewife vote. If James Arthur falls early he could gain transfer votes.
    Top 3: Who wouldn’t want to go to a gig with One Direction, Ed Sheeran & Adele starring (well me) but if you can’t have them get the tribute acts
    3. Ella (126,608) To have had such heavy pimping and not be the most talked about act tells me she is still to catch the public’s imagination. It will take much more work for the show to give her the win than they may want to undertake.
    2. James Arthur (108,056) He could go either way. They could take the edges off and polish him up or show the harsh side and dump him. I think they need the credible act to do well this year.
    1. Union J (161,626) They will gain increased following throughout the series and One Direction’s appearance may give them the initial boost. They also have more of a “pretty boy” image than 1D.
    0. I clearly have no idea. When I started this list Jade was going first and Ella was the clear winner.

  • JasonB

    Huge run on Adam on Twitter yesterday ahead of the phone lines closing at 12. He had almost 3k mentions on twitter alone on the 5th Oct. Updated daily stats: bit.ly/QJiBN3

  • Noisy

    Not had chance to follow it yet this year but thought I’d have a stab based on what little I’ve seen/read:

    1 – Jahmene Douglas
    2 – Ella Henderson
    3 – GMD3
    4 – Union J
    5 – James Arthur
    6 – Kye Sones
    7 – Jade Ellis
    8 – Rylan Clark
    9 – Lucy Spraggan
    10 – Amy Mottram
    11 – Carolynne Poole
    12 – MK1
    13 – Melanie Masson

  • Highlighted

    Looks like the name change has pushed District 3 in the favour of the public. Maybe they are the chosen ones. Trending on twitter at least. I think MK1 will be sacrificed and XF will take a couple shows to see who they prefer of the boybands.

    • They do both seem to be popular, don’t they? District 3, as they are now, have been been trending a fair amount over the past week. There’s an argument that the show has to strangle one boyband to allow the other to fly, but even if this turns out to be the case, I can’t see it happening for a few weeks – as you say, they’ll want to run with both for a while to see which resonates with the public more. We’ve seen GMD/District 3 and Triple/Union J battle each other at bootcamp and at judges’ houses, and now we’ll be seeing it in the lives too. MK1’s online popularity is dwarfed by both of them so they’ll be gone pretty soon.

  • Noisy

    I’ve seen most of the main shows but none of the xtra factors and not read any of the comments on here yet. skimmed through the articles this morning though. just read a lot more on it last year and paid more attention to screentime/producer treatment etc last time than i’ve looked at this year

  • Queen Bea

    Just had a bet on GMD3 on being first to leave. I think MK1 will have slightly longevity

    • Tim B

      I completely agree, Bea. I think GMD3 (now called District 3) are likely to be nobbled first. It’ll be very easy to do – early slot followed by “Mickey, you’re the main man!” or similar. If MK1 fall into the bottom 2 (likely without a pimping) then they’ll be saved. Same with Jade I think. But you never know, we could be in for a bottom 2 surprise like Frankie last year.

      • Frankie was awful in week 2 last year so despite the fact they pimped the high heavens out of him, I was really glad to see him in the bottom. Rylan will get a big production tonight fo sho but if his vocal’s off he could be in danger of landing in the bottom 2. Still won’t be as bad as Frankie’s though, Rylan can sing a bit. While I think MK1 are tertiary group, I also doubt the show would want to lose them in week 1, and as they’re the act with the most USP (well, them and Lucy), I think they’ll stand out and be popular enough not to land in the bottom this week. Unless it’s a dog’s breakfast. Will guest rap, anyone? 😉

  • Allan

    Hello all, not been keeping up fully with the pre-live shows this year, but now intend to get fully involved again in the weekly eliminations. Overall have backed James Arthur at 33-1, thanks to the mention on here a few weeks back, might add Union J, but that’s about it. Ella far too short for this stage in the comp. Looking forward to trying to snaffle some early value on shock eliminations!

  • Boki

    Put a small fun bet on 1st act announced safe @betfred, believe a (favored) group will be 1st. There is also a bottom 2 market available (again small on Carrolyne at the moment).

  • stoney

    as ive previously said they are going to need to get rid of one of them boy bands ASAP cos the longer they are both left in the longer they are likely to gain hardcore followers who wont vote for the other one once there favourite has been booted off, if they get rid of one in the next few weeks (gmtv being most likely imo) then they will not have not necessarily lost them as a voter for the remainder of the series. Also for the record im predicting an almighty performance from jahmene tonight who has pretty much slipped under the radar this last week. 8/1 is huge odds in comparison to ellas 6/4

  • Stoney

    Prediction correct 🙂

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