As this series draws to a close, we find ourselves half-heartedly snuggling up to the finale like Luke S to Ashleigh, rather than hurtling boldly forth like Luke A to a lit cigarette or Becky to an oven full of chicken nug-nugs.
The White Room, much anticipated on Bit On The Side, was a slightly lukewarm revelation, which simply guarantees a place in the final of Big Brother 13. Since the final is a week away and the White Room prize won’t come any closer to guaranteeing a win, the whole thing seems a bit pointless. Conor’s assertion that he wishes to win the task as thanks to the public for saving him four times negates any confidence he has of being saved a fifth. In reality, Conor has only survived in large nominations groups or against the even-less-liked Shievonne after the latter started a confrontation with the series favourite. We all know he wouldn’t have stood a chance against Lauren, just as he has failed to make the top half of saved housemates in big-nom Fridays. Somehow Conor has taken his mixture of good fortune and regional support and imagined it into a plethora of adoring fans willing him to take the crown. It’s either hilarious or tragic but he has little for which to thank the booing public. All they did was find him more interesting than cardboard cutout and general fun-sponge Luke S. Even I do that for Conor and he shouldn’t be thanking me for my ongoing support.
Speaking of the most nondescript man on the planet, Luke S is the guy who could really benefit from The White Room, especially after nearly failing to poll more votes than series villain Caroline last week. Even Ashleigh trumped him in the voting stakes, which doesn’t look good. Having said that, if the rumoured eviction materialises early next week and the elimination process is based on another round of nominations then Luke would probably be in the clear anyway. If he did anything memorable enough for nomination the world would probably implode. So far his greatest achievement is single-handedly proving that a technically impressive body can’t necessarily guarantee you physical attractiveness. The man has all the sex appeal of a urinal cake formed of curried protein powder.
On to this week’s eviction, up for the chop this week are Deana, Luke A, Becky and Ashleigh. Series favourites Deana and Luke A have both survived multiple evictions without breaking a sweat (metaphorically speaking of course. They never came close to elimination but I’m sure there were buckets of nervous sweat). Therefore, it’s really a two-horse race between Ashleigh and Becky for who can scrape the hardest from the barrel of popularity. I’m playing it small this week but my money is on Becky to go. Ashleigh may not be your typically glamorous Essex princess, nor does she display many likeable qualities in general, but there’s something about her clumsy ignorance and inability to be anything other than herself that could appeal. After all, she did survive the bottom two in last week’s eviction.
On the other hand, we have very little information with which to gauge the true popularity of Becky, a housemate so seemingly impossible to like that a sensitive comment about her weight actually produced sympathy for the perpetrator. The revelation of Luke A’s BMI comment was in itself unfair, as Deana’s friend wasn’t shown to reveal the genuinely offensive and disgusting things that Conor had said about Deana. I can no longer remember the exact quote, but it was something along the lines of “I’m going to stick the epilator up her fanny and then beat the shit out of her,” whilst grinning like a maniacal schoolboy. That’s the kind of shit that eclipses a little health-based jibe in the heat of the moment. After all, Becky has been very vocal, proud even, about her avoidance of a healthy lifestyle and I think it must have been clear to the public that she seemed to somewhat relish the drama of the whole situation. Weight is a sensitive issue but there wouldn’t have been half the hoo-ha if Luke S had said of Lauren, “she respects me about as much as she respects her lungs.” On a side note, I’ve been having nightmares about Becky’s sister. Who would have thought that Becky would be known as ‘the nice one’ in her family? Not I.
That was the feeling in my gut. Right or wrong, let me know where you stand on it (my prediction, not my gut).
Agree. I’ve done the same (small amount on Becky).
You really have it in for Luke S, don’t you?
Nightmares about Becky’s sister?? Tell Uncle Eurovicious…
Oh he’s just awful. From the lipstick tattoo to the self-righteous swagger, all encased in this ‘genuine bloke’ faux packaging. I’d rather talk feminism with Conor than spend a second with Luke S.
My nightmares mostly consist of Becky’s sister’s blank stare and monotone drawl, repeating ‘a-BEE, a-EM, a-EYE’
Interesting, I don’t find him that objectionable at all, in fact I quite like him, just a shame about Ashleigh and the rest of the crowd he hangs out with, which does reflect on his choice of friends. In my book, of the insiders, he’s definitely the one you could go for a beer with him and have a reasonable man-to-man chat with. Sort of the way Adam gets on with him despite them being in different social groups. He’s much more balanced/rounded than Conor, Arron, Ashleigh, Caroline etc. and not aggressive or unpredictable. And I think he can be pretty funny at times too 🙂
As we approach the final, I think it makes sense to lay Sara and Scott (assuming you have enough funds). They’re the classic low-placing finalists that have largely sailed under the radar for the duration of the series without generating either significant support or controversy. (See: Dean and Elizabeth in series 2.) I was lucky enough to place a significant lay on Sara while her odds were much higher, before her recent obstreperous behavior towards Deana and histrionics in the White Room caused them to plummet.
At odds of around 8 on Betfair, Adam represents excellent value for the win at the moment, which I think reflects the fact his popularity with the public is largely untested – the only week he was up for nomination was alongside 7 other housemates. Deana and Luke A’s status as the two hot favourites for the crown, with low odds between 2-3, reflects the fact they’ve both survived being up for eviction multiple times, with Luke A beating the popular Lauren and Deana topping the vote on one occasion. Though I’m confident that one of the “outsiders” (Deana, Luke A, Adam) will win, only Adam’s odds represent value at present. The two remaining “insiders”, Luke S and Ashleigh, can be ignored, as they’re so unpopular that there’s no value in laying them, and Ashleigh looks like a likely provisional candidate for next week’s eviction.
Yes, agree with all of that. Although I wouldn’t rule out a Scottish vote sneaking Sara into 3rd place.
*Housemates are put up for EVICTION, not nomination 😛
So this week Deana, Adam, Ashleigh and Scott are up for an eviction.
It’s a double so most likely Ashleigh and Scott will go. Which is a shame because personally I find Scott very funny and much more entertaining than the likes of Luke S and Sara.
Actually, @bbspy are claiming on twitter they have been told “A double eviction has not yet been confirmed”. I can believe this. Five housemates would be unusually few for the final these days. Also, I can’t see them wanting rid of Scott before the final. And as a fan I think he deserves to be there.
Ashleigh to go.
If it’s a single, Ashleigh will go. (If it’s a double, Ashleigh and Scott.)
Tim, why do you think the showmakers would “want” to keep Scott in for the final and/or make this a single not double eviction to ensure this is the case?
As we approach the final, it’s also worth bearing in mind this extremely sage advice from fiveleaves from before the series began:
https://sofabet.com/2012/05/29/sofabet-whats-next/#comment-20908
I think they’d want to keep him for diversity reasons, but also because a higher number of housemates gives them more footage to work with to create the last few shows. Also possible increased revenue from another housemate that can be voted for? Although not sure about that one.
Anyway, apparently there might be some surprise eviction on Saturday now. We’ll have to wait and see.
Food for thought: This is perhaps very hasty of me, but I think there may be some value in laying Deana. Although she’s survived multiple evictions (as did Conor) and even topped the vote once (as did Conor in week 1, let’s not forget), I can’t help but feel her support is exaggerated online. As with Lauren, a lot of her popularity seems to derive from the fact that she was a victim of bullying in the house, but now that’s largely subsided with the departure of almost all of the series’s “villains”, I think she’s behaving in a lot of ways which will rub viewers up the wrong way:
– the constant, sincere praying to God to not be nominated/evicted, which really grates and comes over as incredibly spoilt and self-centered, and which Adam and Luke A distanced themselves from but are letting her continue doing
– the “soldiers” shtick, which Adam also explicitly distanced himself from
– the recent replaying of her audition video which shows her rather arrogantly discussing how many maids and cooks she has – ie. she’s likely less in need of the money than Adam, Luke A (that phalloplasty isn’t gonna pay for itself) or any of the other finalists
– her recent drunken behavior and cruel teasing of the relatively harmless Luke S in his most sympathetic moment (after his betrayal by Conor in the White Room), teasing which led to him breaking down in tears in the Diary Room shortly afterwards
– her paranoia
– her general flakiness and mopiness
– her constant nominations talk (she’s received more warnings about this than anyone else in the house by far)
– her frequent vain, self-absorbed whining about “being fat”
– her having a go at Scott for trying to get on with everyone instead of picking sides
– she hasn’t really done anything in the house except mope for weeks on end and indeed almost fetishise the fact that she doesn’t fit in (partly because she doesn’t make any effort to), unlike Lauren who was genuinely distressed at being bitched about by the other girls
– etc etc…
She’s the favourite and has been for weeks, but the market has been wrong a lot of times this series. As I touched on above, she’s popular for a lot of the same reasons that Lauren was, which in itself could be read as a warning sign. Like Deana, Lauren (who I found more likeable, fun, reliable, sincere and accessible) was picked on and excluded in the house, was a bookies’ favourite for weeks, and enjoyed great popularity on the BB fan haunts like Digital Spy etc. As such, when she went up for eviction against Luke A, she was the favourite to stay according to all the fan polls and bookmakers (with eviction odds of around ~1.2 compared to Luke’s ~3). Everyone was surprised when yet again, the polls and bookies were completely wrong and Luke A (who until then had a lower profile and far less visible online support) stayed and Lauren went. I think the same could very easily happen again and the easygoing, relatable Luke A could prove more popular than Deana too. He and Adam are the only housemates who’ve remained principled and dignified throughout the series, they both need the money more, and they both have more of a narrative. At ~2.2, Deana’s odds are far too short, Adam’s (at 6-8) are too long, and Luke A’s (at ~2.7) are about right.
Some very good points, euro, and I shall most likely be pinching some of your words in this week’s post. On the whole I agree. I like Deana but she does seem in danger of hurting her own chances with recent behaviour. Adam does look too long and Luke could be the more worthy champ. Post soon.
Yeah I definitely feel Deana is no longer a dead cert to win and there’s actually a very real possibility she won’t. Interestingly on the tellymix poll (almost 3k votes, can’t be rigged) Deana is basically neck and neck with Adam for this eviction. Normally she would have a massive lead over the others, but not in this situation.
Luke A and Adam could possibly split the vote somewhat, but I feel that Deana is on a downward spiral. As long as Luke S is still present in the house she may still feel the need to have digs and act shrewdly – especially if she survives this eviction, making her ego even larger.
She came across quite badly (as much as her hardcore fanbase would like to state otherwise)these last couple of episodes. The editing between her and Scott was quite telling. Whilst he came across as sincere and good-natured (defending her and complaining about the divide) she came across as spiteful and far too cynical – especially her reaction to the secret task tonight and manipulation of the nominations.
Viewers are very fickle and just like Luke A beating Lauren (he got a brilliant edit the day of nominations, securing a large lead in votes I suspect) I can see all the unsure voters abandoning Deana (who can no longer hide behind the victim status) and supporting easy-going nice guys – Adam and Luke A (the latter more so).
As for this eviction, it has been confirmed as a double so I still believe Ashleigh will go first followed by Scott, but he has come across really well these last couple of weeks and has featured heavily. Maybe he will secure a similar boost in votes for these early days and outlive Adam or Deana? – This is quite unlikely though, as their support online, whilst not conclusive, is huge compared to Scott’s.
Great post, very reasoned and I agree on all points, especially a) the possibility of Adam and Luke A splitting the vote in the final and b) the outside chance of Scott’s recent good showing potentially leading to a surprise on Friday (could Deana be a surprise second evictee with Adam topping the vote, Scott second and Ashleigh bottom?)
I’ve got a slight suspicion BB may be trying to push Adam out. I know it seems very unlikely (he has huge online support and must appeal to the casual voter) but in todays show Adam barely featured and Scott was shown quite a bit (I know some of that will be because of the task, but he has a lot of DR segments shown).
Might just be trying to get the best out of Scott before he goes and generate some laughs, but maybe he really is a threat?