Finally, something has come to drop a log on this year’s mid-season slump. That something comes in the form of an eight-legged nomination twist of death. Adam, Ashleigh, Caroline, Conor, Deana, Luke, Luke and Sara are all up for eviction with no word on whether more than one will face the chop on Friday (it’s getting late and I hate overly populous finals).
Let us start with the obvious. Current favourite Deana has topped the public vote twice (once in a four way nom) and has polling advantages in terms of Asian support and a strong bullying storyline. Having beaten another series favourite in Lauren, Luke A continues to look like a very strong contender. Only an unprecedented level of voter complacency could lead to either of these juggernauts from missing out on the first two shout outs of the night (it will be interesting to see if Brian calls in popular order when so many are up – it would rather give the housemates a little too much information).
Next up are Conor and Sara, whom I group together based on their likely ability to generate regional support. Notoriously evil epilator rapist Conor now holds the series record in being saved three times and could even be a far-out value bet for the win at numbers in the 30s on Betfair. Don’t forget a strong second placing by Scotsman Jason in series 5 or the unpopular win by last year’s Aaron. Sara, on the other hand, whilst something of a wet fish in the house, is succeeding in endearing the audience slowly but surely with her sweet and seemingly genuine personality. She too can rely on a large regional vote from Scotland and seems safe enough.
Adam, currently third in the rankings, isn’t entirely safe in this octopus of a voter battle but has maintained popularity throughout the series and shouldn’t struggle to pull in enough votes to carry him through to next week.
That leaves three main contenders for the chop: Ashleigh, Caroline and Luke S. Of those, Caroline seems most likely to generate interest in the form of the infamous ‘shit-stirrer vote’ – a slightly stronger weapon in these days of die-hard channel 5-watching BB fans. It’s not unthinkable that a lot of frumpy public school girls might find Caroline endearing also. If we were voting to evict, she seems like the obvious evictee but I’m not sure that the eight-way nomination won’t work to her advantage on this occasion. The real hot water is swilling around the star-crossed ankles of potty-mouthed piss-drinker Ashleigh and her onion-fragranced Ken doll of a ‘boyfriend’ Luke S. Without doubt the most cringe-worthy and insipid BB love story of all time, Lushleigh make Michelle Bass and Chicken Stu look like Wills and Kate on their wedding day. I reckon they’re both in big trouble but of course Caroline isn’t looking safe just yet.
On a side note, it was nice to see Lauren get such a decent send-off last week. Perhaps it should have been obvious that the male/female vote would fall in its traditional direction, especially when the female in question had been accused of ‘leading a gentleman on’ (come off it society, Adam is a grown man, stop treating every woman like an apple-chomping jezebel for having a friendly flirt). As Emma pointed out on Bit On The Side, it felt like a week where the public wanted nobody to go. It’s a shame that the good, bad and really ugly task resulted in the Luke/Lauren face-off where both the trans-champion and the smokey bacon frazzle looked like such worthy winners. A small triumph was had in the housemates’ clear acknowledgement of the jubilant roars that met Little Miss Firecracker on her way out of the house though. And I wouldn’t be too surprised to hear a few more chants of “GET CAROLINE OUT!” on Friday night.
The weird thing is, we’re a massive 8 weeks into the show, just 2 weeks from the final, and 10 of the 17 housemates who entered in the first week are still there, ie. there are as many people in the house at this late stage as there were on launch night in Big Brother 1. Not having properly watched BB in about a decade, as you probably can tell from my frame of reference, I’m not sure how this compares with more recent series.
Re: who will go, I’m only betting pennies but am wavering between Ashleigh and Caroline, increasingly more towards the latter. The market has often been wrong this series and while Ashleigh is the favourite to go, Caroline is more unsympathetic. Basically, Ashleigh can be pitied/sympathised with more than Caroline – she may be a nasty moron but she’s not spiteful, and she comes from the humblest of backgrounds unlike Caroline’s privilege. Moreover, she visibly has low-self esteem and insecurities, and was genuinely upset at Deana not getting her letter this week and was overjoyed to get a second chance to win it, which made her look more sympathetic and human than she’s appeared throughout the whole series. In short: she’s far, far more relatable than Cazza. What they have in common is neither of them may be able to drum up much support from their real-world milieus. The degree to which urban Essex will support Ashleigh is questionable as she’s a pretty terrible representation of the area (like something straight out of Abigail’s Party), though I’m sure she’ll be able to drum up some. But I just can’t see the Tatler-reading Jontys and pashmina-wearing Cuntella Farpington-Smythes of the world being remotely interested enough in either the show or her to pick up their ivory phones and keep her in. Unlike bubbly Ashleigh, who seems like she’s probably the type of girl who goes out a lot and knows a lot of people, Caroline may not have many genuine friends in the real world (emphasis on the word “genuine”). She’s not long out of boarding school and seems to have had a very limited social circle; her personality, constructed as it is entirely on bitchiness, insincerity and artifice, could be read as classic boarding school survival strategy, a defensive shell demanded and encouraged by the challenging social environment of an all girls’ boarding school. Like Lauren said: it’s very clever for a 20-year-old girl to be doing. She’s had a lot of practice. Add to that she’s been racist about Adam and transphobic about Luke to others in the house in the nastiest, most underhand way. She’s not a girl with good social skills and as such, I’m not sure who’ll be drumming up support for her. By all accounts, even her parents have always been vehemently against her attempts to appear on reality TV.
I think you make some excellent points, Euro. It’s very hard to call between Caroline, Ashleigh and Luke S and I think they all have a strong chance of going. My only thought is that Luke and Ashleigh have had less interesting coverage over the course of the series and may struggle in a vote to save that includes 8 housemates. Caroline wouldn’t fare very well in a normal week but there’s an outside chance that the 8-way split could work to her advantage seeing as she is just a more memorable and watchable housemate. I’m holding off until later tonight or tomorrow to put anything on it though.
In actual fact, we could see a shock result. These wide-split noms usually turn up slightly surprising fruits. Who knows who will lose their support to other contestants? I doubt there are many voters calling twice to lodge their support for two different contestants…
I’m not sure if you watched the January celebrity series, but there was a similar eviction to this one at a late stage with all the housemates up for eviction. The (first) person evicted was Kirk Norcross (off of TOWIE) who is the equivalent in this series of Luke S. As I said above, I’m not ruling out Conor for this eviction.
There won’t be a double eviction either as they are up against the Olympics opening ceremony on the other side, plus they probably would have told us by now.
Hey Dug, I mostly agree with your analysis. Deana, Luke S, Adam and Sara are all safe in my opinion. Ashleigh, Luke S and Caroline are most in danger with an outside chance of Conor going.
eurovicious, what I think you’re getting wrong is assuming that any potential support for Caroline and Ashleigh will be mirrored by their own demographics. For instance, I barely think any upper class types will be interested in the show all. That’s not to say I think Caroline is lacking in support, but that her potential fanbase will come from a cross section of society. Let’s not forget that for a good week or so she was the favourite to win and had many fans according to internet polls and forums at the time. She’s bound to have some of those fans left, whereas Lushleigh have never been particular popular. From a fan’s perspective, Caroline makes me laugh a hell of a lot (not always intentionally). For example when she was laughing at the “Get Caroline out!” chants last week. Dug – I totally agree that she is the most entertaining and watchable housemate among the bottom few. Having said that, I by no means think she is safe. Voting figures for the bottom few will be pitiful but I have backed Ashleigh to go with savers on Luke S and Conor (fantastic odds, has slipped massively under the radar).
Conor reminds me too much of Scottish Jason in series 5 who appeared to have no support until he came second when the whole of Scotland voted for him…
Caroline got a lot of favourable / funny coverage tonight, which makes me think she has a slight advantage over Lushleigh.
I thought the coverage was pretty negative…
Surely betting on both Luke A and Ashleigh is easy money?
Caroline will not be going considering how controversial she is (bound to have picked up some fans) plus the shopping task prank tomorrow.
Its 100% between Lushleigh and you’d make a profit regardless who wins.
Luke S*
It’s definitely a good shout and I’m looking at placing a Lushleigh bet very shortly but I think it’s important to consider the possibility of Caroline getting the boot before getting carried away. Just because she’s been hilarious doesn’t mean there will be an outpouring of support in terms of voter numbers. I agree that betting on Luke S and Ash looks like a very sensible route to easy profit right now but I’m not going to count my chickens when Caroline is yet to face the public vote.
I agree.
Sarah, I agree, it’s definitely Ashleigh and Luke S the most at risk.
Called it 😀
Foot meet mouth.