Big Brother 2012 – Will Conor Wriggle Free Again?

It’s a pity really, that Conor and Shievonne are up against each other. In a different battle there might have been some easy money to be made on very short odds. As it is, two of the least likeable and most aggressive housemates vie for the public vote and unfortunately only one can go. Boo!

I’m inclined to agree with the market and say that Conor is likely to slither out of eviction for another week. In week one he was yet to show his true colours and last week saw the vote split too many ways for Conor’s enemies to have a clear vote. This week poses a different problem. Those who truly want Conor out (and there may be many of them) have only the option of voting for Shievonne who has become this week’s bad guy. Not only is she an ally of Conor’s, she is now attempting to manipulate Deana against her friends at the very point that Miss India UK was starting to settle in.

There is also the fact that Conor himself has calmed down somewhat since Arron’s departure. This may be largely as a result of realising that Deana’s vote topping indicated public support in her dispute with the boys. Conor has bully paranoia so he’s steering clear and playing nice for a bit. The cameras haven’t been on him much but they shot enough to capture his sobfest and perhaps garner him a little sympathy.

Let’s throw in the depressing but inevitable truths that Conor has a polling advantage when it comes to age, gender, race and regionality (yes I’m making that a word, it makes sense in my head) and then things just don’t look great for Shiv. I imagine that supporters of Deana and the Smokers (what a band name!) would probably have a tough time choosing an evictee and might not bother to vote at all. I may be wrong but this feels like a week where the vote to save system won’t necessarily push people to vote for one housemate in order to boot the other. It’s not bland vs evil; it’s aggressive, chauvinist pirate vs aggressive, righteous rapper. Who goes? You decide.

If it is the case that this week’s eviction rests more on the genuine popular vote than the default vote then I think Conor’s at a clear advantage. For one thing, he’s survived two hangings so far so he must have some fans out there. What interests me is the effect that this will have on his position in the house. Surviving a third nomination is likely to make him feel invincible as well as suggesting to the other housemates that there is little point in nominating him. If Conor manages past this week then his chances of making it to the final, a la angry Scottish Jason (series 5), look better and better.

It’s interesting to see that from once topping the leader board, Caroline has finally hit rock bottom in the bookies’ estimations. It’s funny that she’s yet to become the show’s big baddie as her constant, calculated malice makes her a much better panto villain than the meathead Arron or the clearly insane Lydia.

Deana and the Smokers (literally, where do I get tickets for that gig?) still make up the ‘big 4’ in the running for the win. I think this seems fair for now but the emerging tension between the two most paranoid housemates, Lauren and Deana, as instigated by Shievonne, could cause a rift which would surely see one of them coming out more favourably. That could certainly rock the boat somewhat. Sara and Becky follow shortly behind, Luke S and Scott hover around the lower middle and ‘C.A.C.S.’ as the bitchy four shall be known scrape the barrel of chance in terms of win potential.

I’m tentative to advise an official ‘tip’ this week but for what it’s worth my money is on Conor to stay and Shievonne to go.

If anyone knows of ANY way that we could make this a double eviction OR where the hell I can get tickets for Deana and the Smokers, please be in touch. Many thanks.

10 comments to Big Brother 2012 – Will Conor Wriggle Free Again?

  • Tim B

    Hi Dug, I largely agree with you this week. It’s a massive shame that Conor and Shievonne are up against each other and that only one of them can go. In Shievonne’s favour though are all the polls which if translated into votes would see her saved. The very early polls indicated a massive lead for Shievonne, so I put a small amount on Conor to be evicted at 2.20. Unfortunately for me, Shievonne has since behaved madder than a box of frogs and turned herself into a bit of an antagonist.

    One notable trend for most of the weeks is that the housemate with the most camera time post-nomination has ended up being evicted – certainly true for Benedict, Lydia and Chris at least. That combined with the obvious demographic advantages for Conor (Irish vote?), could see Shievonne out. I will wait until tomorrow to decide for sure, but it’s likely I’ll reverse my position so that I’m on Shievonne to be evicted instead. As we saw last week, Conor is one of those housemates with a silent-but-deadly fanbase (Ulrika Jonnsson, anyone?) which could see him through to next week.

  • eurovicious

    I think it’s great that Conor and Shievonne are up against each other instead of a short-odds situation, as calling it correctly leads to some actual value. I also think Shievonne = gone. I’ve only been watching BB since Monday but in that time she’s managed to raise my blood pressure sufficiently that I kind of want to smash her head in. Conor, meanwhile, has a fanbase of girls who want him to do things to them. A quick scour of Twitter towards the end of last night’s show seemed to reveal a fair few Conor fans, but no real Shievonne fanbase, instead mainly just a massive level of irritation towards her. There were quite a few girls in the audience on BBBOTS last night whose favourite was Conor too. He plays into the classic brooding, rough and ready, quick and nasty bad-boy archetype – the type that attracts a lot of women (and gay men) (ie. the core BB audience) because they think they can change them (see: Mr Darcy, Twilight, 50 Shades Of Shite etc.). So the fact he’s featured little this week and seemed sullen and withdrawn, like an injured puppy, will work in his favour. Also the fact he got his bum out while being spray-tanned last night may work in his favour (can’t believe I just wrote that sentence…).

    “regionality” is a word, dinna worry, at least it’s in Wiktionary if that’s owt to go by…

    I think either Luke S or Adam will win, possibly also Becky. Lauren’s too much of a flake. Deana has had a good narrative but I think she’s also too much of a flake. Caroline will be out on her bratty arse the first week she’s nominated, hopefully deservedly accompanied by a choir of boos and projectiles.

    Finally, has anyone noticed the parallels to series 6? The housemates have split into two opposed groups, partly along racial lines; Luke S + Ashleigh = Maxwell + Saskia, Scott = Craig, Becky = Kinga (comical larger-than-life lass), Benedict = Roberto (sexy older teacher evicted early), Shievonne = Science (attitudinal obstreperous windbag). Though perhaps this has only leapt out at me as that was the last series I watched any of…

    • Dug

      A win for Luke S would be a fail, not just by BB voters but on behalf of the entire universe. He reminds me of the boy at school who gets head boy but still dishes out bogwashes at lunch. I didn’t like the way he asserted dominance over the kitchen or the way he thrust his groin at Deana during their argument (even if she was wrong to get involved in the sham marriage). And he criticises the smokers for their withdrawal symptoms yet displays the same reaction upon losing his beloved protein powder (as if his health choices make him a superior human being).

      I agree that Conor could pick up a lot of sexy votes now that Arron has gone. There’s something strangely sexless about Luke S, in all his beefed up glory. Like Barbie’s Ken, I imagine him to be completely smooth down below.

      I still think Lauren is a fair favourite for the win. I’ve grown to like Adam but his flirtations with Lauren are a little bit of a turn off. She doesn’t appear to return his romantic interests but she could be in danger of ‘leading him on’. It’s depressing how much the GBP in 2012 still essentially see women as daughters of Eve come to corrupt and defile the men of the land. Hopefully Lauren has the innocence to get away with it but I still think a dispute with Deana could tip the scales in the favour of one and not the other. Similarly, the ‘romance’ between Lauren and Adam is likely to favour one and hurt the other. Either he’ll come off looking creepy or she’ll come off looking like a tease. Or hopefully their friendship will hold fast.

      Please not Luke S. Anyone but Luke S.

  • eurovicious

    Sorry, that was a complete typo for Luke A…

    I can see why in previous series when two contestants had the same name, they insisted one change it to something else (like Paul -> Bubble)

  • Tim B

    So Shievonne was evicted, and didn’t become the 10th female in BB history to beat a male in a head-to-head. We have to be looking at a double eviction or surprise midweek eviction ASAP, I think. There also haven’t been any new additions, although admittedly this year’s housemates are very good.

  • Dug

    Alas no time for a lengthy post this week, partly because I’m on holiday and partly because I’m a little stumped re Luke V Lauren.

    It’s a hard one to call, probably the hardest of the series. In one corner you’ve got Luke A, the ‘everyman’ whose personal journey has impressed and inspired many. He has maturity, empathy and a no-nonsense attitude on his side. Facing off against Luke is his bestie, Lauren, the bouncy, wide-eyed tomboy. She has innocence, openness and impulsivity going for her. In this series or any another, they both have great polling potential. Unfortunately the unstoppable force and the immovable object are up against each other and only one can stay.

    Lauren is the bookie’s fave to stay and this week I’m leaning safe and jumping on the bandwagon. She’s just easier to warm to whereas Luke A can be a little sullen at times and not in a slightly hilarious bacon rampage way.

    I’ll stick with Lauren right now but I won’t be backing her at short odds. How’s about the rest of you?

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