BGT moves into the live semi-finals stage tonight, a day earlier than usual. The semi-finals run from Sunday to Thursday, then Friday is a BGT-free evening before the final in its usual position on Saturday.
The only act in last night’s final audition show to make a ripple in the market were Aquabatique, who dragged the judges and audience outside for their synchronised swimming act. Which poses some interesting logistical questions: How will they manage that during the live semi? If they win, will the Queen have to traipse into the car park during the Royal Variety Show to see them?
And could they be taken on the BGT tour? In the comments to our last post, Steve raises the tour – on which all the finalists customarily go – as a reason to wonder if 200-strong choir (and 12/1 third-favourites) Only Boys Aloud might not be pushed too hard in their semi; the Travelodge bill might dwarf the ticket sales. Similar concerns surely apply to Aquabatique.
Of course, BGT aren’t daft – it is nowhere written in stone that all the finalists will go on the tour. Still, it would be surely be embarrassing for them to have the winner not appear on the tour, which suggests we might be unwise to expect producers to go all out to show favourable treatment to acts for whom the tour might be logistically difficult.
Which brings us to the running order. It seems that every year on Sofabet we publish the same article about Britain’s Got Talent and the running order in the live shows. But then, if the show itself is unashamedly formulaic, it’s no surprise if our analysis of it ends up following suit.
Before the 2011 live shows we updated our 2010 discussion of how much depends on running order. The reason it’s so important in BGT, we presume, is that the live semi is only the second time viewers have seen an act, so there has not been much chance for them to develop loyalties, maximising the fresh-in-the-mind effect of performing late.
So, was our warning about the running order borne out once again in the 2011 live shows? Surprise, surprise – yes.
As wikipedia reminds us, in Monday’s semi, Ronan Parke performed 8/8 and won. The second and third placed acts performed 4/8 and 7/8 respectively. Tuesday’s 1-2-3 performed 5/8, 6/8 and 7/8. Wednesday’s 6/8, 7/8 and 8/8. Thursday’s also 6/8, 7/8 and 8/8. And Friday’s 9/9, 8/9 and 2/9.
Let’s put that another way. Across the five semis in 2011, only one act who sang either last or second-last failed to make it to the top three of the public vote. And only two acts made it to the top three of the public vote having sung in the first half of the show.
Last year we did a pretty graph showing how the BGT semi final running order related to 1-2-3 placings over all the previous series. Here’s how that graph looks after being updated with last year’s results:
(For the sake of convenience, we’re cheating a little and counting 8/9 and 9/9 in last year’s sole nine-act semi as 7/8 and 8/8 for the purposes of this graph, to fit in with all the other semis so far having been eight-act. Judging by the selection of 45 acts, for the first time, all of this year’s semis are nine-act, which is irritating for cumulative graphing purposes but doesn’t change the basic lesson that it helps to go late).
How about the final? Last year’s was won from slot 8/10 by Jai McDowell. Runner-up Ronan Parke came from 6/10, and third-placed New Bounce from the pimp slot, 10/10. And here’s the updated finals graph:
(This covers the last four finals, excluding series 1 which had only six acts in it. The winner of which, incidentally, sang 6/6 and the second-placed act 5/6).
There’s another potentially interesting pattern about the running order which we pointed out last year – performing last in the first semi-final has so far correlated with a top-two placing in the final (eventual winner Paul Potts in series 1, eventual runner-up Signature in series 2, eventual runner-up Susan Boyle in series 3, eventual winner Spelbound in series 4, and eventual runner-up Ronan Parke in series 5).
Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. It does make some dramatic sense for the show to bestow the pimp slot in the first semi-final upon a water-cooler act, in the hope of hooking in viewers for the four remaining semis.
So if you agree with Sofabet commenter Tim B that Ashleigh and Pudsey are the standout each-way bet, you might want to get on them before tonight’s semi-final, in which they appear to be the act most likely to be pimped. (They are currently longest priced at 12/1 in the win market with Sportingbet at the time of writing; the Betfair markets for winning and qualifying from the first semi are also now open).
Punters seeking a bit of each-way value might also be tempted to wonder if the show’s making a big thing last night about Ryan O’Shaughnessy getting out of his contract with The Voice because he felt BGT gave him more artistic freedom – something which Sofabet commenter R picked up on – might herald some pimping coming his way. If you’re tempted, Sportingbet currently have the longest each-way price on him at 18/1.
As we always warn with BGT, though, betting before knowing the running order is effectively in large part betting on who you think producers will be setting out to help. The consensus of Sofabet commenters after our last post on BGT is that producers have no obvious reason to look beyond Charlotte and Jonathan as their preferred winner.
Are you seeing any reason to doubt that the popera pairing will get the biggest helping hand? Do please let us know below what you’re expecting, and also use this thread to let us know your reactions as the semi final week progresses.
Thanks Andrew,
I’ve been eagerly awaiting this post.
I’m not sure where we stand with Ryan. He was booted off last night but there are articles saying he gets reinstated tonight. I can only see this happening if the show is ready to give him heavy pimping. Was the rejection last night part of the pimping? It would certainly explain his comments last night
I can imagine Cowell with arm around Ryan’s shoulder: “Just say how much BGT lets you express your own style & The Voice doesn’t, and I’ll make sure you get to the final my boy.” (Grins smugly with self satisfaction).
The graphs make excellent reading.
That the finalist or runner-up also appears in the first semi-final is a great pointer to the show’s intentions. Of the three runner-up positions didn’t the show push for Susan Boyle & Ronan Parkes for the win? If so, that’s 5 out of 6 that the show wanted as winner. In which case I expect Jonathon & Charlotte to be the final act tonight.
If Ryan does come on last tonight as the big “You thought he was out” storyline, I will have to reassess his chances of winning.
I expect Ashleigh & Pudsey to finish in the top three, but it was interesting to see BBC Breakfast’s Friday report on dog trick shows i.e Pudsey isn’t that exceptional (Coincidence? I don’t think so).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJe-dMCOMS0
I really don’t know what to make of the younger kids. I don’t like any of them but Malaki seems to have a lot of support for crying and the girls can all carry off cute with unerring aplomb.
I was surprised Marea Smithson (the female impersonator) didn’t make it through as she was built up in the show’s trailers and reminders. So there could still be a few shocks ahead.
Hi R, that was exactly what I was wondering re Ryan! 🙂
It looks like neither C&J or Ryan are among tonight’s lineup, though –
http://talent.itv.com/2012/news/article/read_bgt-semi-finalists-performing-in-live-show-one_item_100218.htm
It’s hard to say if the opening semi pimp slot is a sign of favour or just a sign that this is an act people are talking about (a category that will overlap a lot, of course). I’m assuming the thinking is to get people saying to friends “did you see BGT last night” after the first semi, in the hope of boosting viewership for the remaining semis.
Of the ones announced for tonight, Ashleigh and Pudsey look most likely to fulfil that role. I still find it hard to believe the show will be pushing them for the win, though.
I am surprised at the line up.
It is possible the dog act can garner enough support from 7th or 8th and the pimp slot goes to another act TPTB want to force through.
Zipparah Tafari – “one hit wonder” – people like him but nowhere to go. OUT
The Jive Aces – Nothing special & too yellow. OUT
Lauren Thalia – Cute 12 year old. Usurped by Malaki but she does play guitar. LIKELY OUT
United We Stand – divided they fall. Decent dance act but not Twist & Pulse. “Diversity set the bar very high and you’re not quite there.” LIKELY OUT (but a dance act, so…)
Analiza Ching – The Vanessa Mae violinist. Not the right type of contestant to get votes on this show. OUT
The Mend – They were axed from TXF, but because they already had a contract. one guys sing while 3 others stand around. They could get the young female vote or they could get arrested. LIKELY OUT a close third.
Rachel Knowland – An ok singer. Will come back for TXF. OUT
Ashleigh & Pudsey – A must for the final. Cowell loves a dog. THROUGH
Only Boys Aloud – Stupid name but they might just come in second if they get the pimp slot. LIKELY THROUGH
Decided to put my neck on the chopping block before seeing their treatment.
Thanks Andrew! Btw The Mend replaced Dandies tonight it seems, any chance they will get the pimping?
Maybe, Boki, but there could be any number of mundane reasons for switching those two. In terms of leaving the most-anticipated act till last to keep people watching the whole show, though, that would point to A&P, I think.
Tonights line up : http://talent.itv.com/2012/news/article/read_bgt-semi-finalists-performing-in-live-show-one_item_100218.htm
So either The Dog act, The choir or the mend will be departing, but which one? Running order to decide as always.
I think the top 3 could be Ashleigh and Pudsey, Only Boys Aloud and The Mend, with the first two battling for first place. I don’t think I can call it either, because everyone loves the dog act but the choir will have a big Welsh regional vote, not to mention all of their friends and families also likely to be voting for them. I’m waiting for the running order but will probably put a large sum on A&P to qualify.
Can anyone remember if Ashley and Pudsey were in the pimp slot for their audition show?
Hi Tim,
They were indeed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dveS4dEGS9s&feature=related
Brilliant! Thanks R.
Ash and Puds to go through, I think they will go 2nd from last though and whoever they will push through will be given the pimp slot.
Newbie question: was that the running order (A&P in the middle)?
Well I guess not, sorry for the spam.
Oddly I’ve realised that my predictions above were listed in running order.
As much as I would like to take credit, I just copied the list from the BGT website.
http://talent.itv.com/2012/news/article/read_bgt-semi-finalists-performing-in-live-show-one_item_100218.htm
I did however beat Cowell to the punchline about his love for dogs:)
Great predictions R !
In previous series it was but it seems like they have got wise and changed it for this series, shame makes it harder to bet in running.
Anyone else have the problem of the Betfair market being voided towards the end of the show tonight? Most of my bets were cancelled and refunded, which was irritating. (The reason for this was they still had the Sugar Daddies listed instead of The Mend.) However, I did still win FOUR EUROS overall on BGT this evening *paints town maroon* (and significantly more on The Voice *paints town even more maroon*)
Yes, didn’t put anything on BF because of Dandies and somehow missed when they opened 2nd market, at the end caught few euros on boys. Poor stuff from BF, no wonder there was no liquidity.
Yeah, I had that problem today – I was surprised how illiquid the market was this evening, and with that cock up as well, it meant that there were effectively four markets running instead of two… With low betting volumes, it’s harder to find value.
Share your feelings. I was also surprised how few people were betting and how little value there was.
I had a very profitable start to the semis! I had Ashleigh and Pudsey to qualify, to win the semi, Only Boys Aloud to qualify and I had a lay on The Mend when their price came right down.
Regarding The Mend, did anyone notice that they were the first of THREE acts performing in a show segment finishing with the mighty Ashleigh and Pudsey? i.e. right down the memory hole…
That blip on betfair was annoying, but luckily I spotted it just in time to react and put a couple of bets on.
God, I hate that poor Dog.
The dog act is rubbish, the one that one the German series a couple of years ago is so much better: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esC94icFeFI
Interestingly, Charlotte and Jonathan are now ‘Jonathan and Charlotte’.
Superb. Thanks for this post, Andrew – for someone like me who’s never really watched BGT, it’s tremendously insightful. 🙂
I am glad you found it so, eurovicious! 🙂
Fascinating that the show running order was the one posted on the BGT website during the day, as R points out. Will that be the case again today or will they have had a stern word with the intern who failed to mix them up a bit? It seems a surprisingly generous gift to punters especially given that they seem to have made a point of scrambling the acts at the start of the show whereas, as PG says, in previous series they would generally announce them in performance order.
We can expect Jonathan and Charlotte tonight, apparently –
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/britain_got_talent/4301699/Monday-nights-Britains-Got-Talent-semi-final.html
I’ve just read on BF forum that running order was confirmed by “voting numbers on app” – so if you have an Iphone/Ipad and install the app you can see it beforehand apparently. Can someone check it tonight?
Hey Boki, I downloaded the app the other day so will check it tonight. That’s great to know as I didn’t enjoy the uncertainty on last night’s running order when the show started.
I’m gonna put my neck on the line and do a prediction baased on the potential running order that’s on wikipedia.
1. CASCADE – Impressive action-stunt team but the French factor will count against them and would have little chance of top 3 from the opening slot. OUT
2. PAIGE TURLEY – Sweet child singer likely to receive a lot of regional votes and for that reason could be TOP 3. However I don’t think the producers would want 3 of the 4 acts through after tonight being singers but you never know. LIKELY OUT
3. KARIZMA KREW – Generic dance troupe. Hated the outfits they wore for their audition. OUT
4. GRAHAM BLACKLEDGE – Novelty organist/singer who hasn’t made enough of a viral impact to be challenging for a place in this semi. Likely to be buzzed. OUT
5. KAI AND NATALIA – Impressive ballroom dancers whose audition would very well received. Could be top 3 depending on the ampunt of pimping, small chance they would go through but I would for now guess that they will be OUT.
6. FISH ON PERCUSSION – Not really the type of act that voters are likely to go for. Too much competition for top 3 in this semi so definitely OUT.
7. THE SHOW BEARS – Camp dance act. There was a similar act last year or the year before and I don’t remember them doing too well. OUT.
8. JONATHAN AND CHARLOTTE – YouTube video has had almost 13 million views. This will top the vote and is definitely going to get THROUGH.
9. FOUR CORNERS – Very impressive dance troupe which in my opinion is the standout act of its type for this year. The flame-haired girl is sexy and memorable enough for this act to get enough support to reach the top 3. You can expect approximately 1-3 dance troupes to appear in the final and I think the judges are likely to put them THROUGH. Terrific value on this bet at the moment at 9.0 to qualify on bwin.
Nice Tim. Btw, on the 1st published list yesterday last two acts were correctly ordered, I hope today is the same case. I managed to get 4C on Bwin just in case, please let us know what app says this evening.
Hi Tim,
This is how I see it too.
If the BGT site list is the correct order again, I see it being close for second & third.
I didn’t initially see Kai & Natalia having an impact but the four preceding acts have no hope, while the chances of Cascade & Paige have been heavily diminished (if not totally) by early positioning.
Interesting if they have given J&C the
pimp slot.
Fresh on BGT site:
Cascade
Paige Turley
Karizma Krew
The Showbears
Fish On Percussionist
Graham Blackledge
Kai and Natalia
Four Corners
Jonathan and Charlotte
I’ll go for Kai also, very distintcive from others.
Hope that’s the running order! I will go for Kai and Natalia as well.
If that is the running order, then both Four Corners and Kai and Natalia should be a fair bit shorter in the “to qualify” markets than they are (8s and 6s respectively), and Cascade and Paige Turley (9/4 and 7/4) longer.
Hmm. Big if, though.
Both 4C & Kai removed from Bwin, I guess they are reading Sofabet 🙂
From the app:
“ITV and the show’s producers have decided to withdraw the Mobile App as a voting method for tonight’s show[…]We are working with our technical partners to try and bring Mobile App voting back later in the week if possible.”
Simon just said nearly the exact line this article said he would about C&J Haha brilliant
Yeah, great one Andrew 🙂
Cheers guys – it amused me! 🙂
Brilliant yet scary. BGT is “reality puppetry” and once you’re equipped with the goggles to see the strings being pulled (thanks to this site), it’s fascinating.
It’s looking very promising for us, Boki!
Yes Tim, great job today! Initially I had more profit on 4C but managed to increase Kai winning during judge’s voting. Even JC back2lay worked, I love this game 🙂
All stops pulled out to ensure no repeat of the Jai McDowell fiasco. Tried to subdue vote with trap two, failed. Will have won public vote so get the dark lord to dispatch her, job done. The final should now be a Scottish free zone as far as i can see. Finally is there any doubt what plan A is now???
Fiasco is an understatement!
Top tipping yesterday, Tim, and congrats too Boki! 🙂 Here are the acts reported for tonight –
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/tv/britain_got_talent/4303091/Tuesday-nights-Britains-Got-Talent-line-up.html
Room for The Loveable Rogues after The Mend didn’t make it? Room for Molly Rainford after poor old Paige was turned over? Room for T&P Dance Company given no Cascade or Four Corners? Eagerly awaiting the listing of acts on the BGT website today – that’s twice now it’s been in performance order, though of course that’s no guarantee.
Just looking at the list, it looks like indeed Rogues/Molly/Twist in top3 because the rest is more/less poor.
I have to agree with both of you there. Running order will be telling but remember Molly won’t have the regional vote that Paige had. Can still see her in the top 3 though.
My thoughts were only based on quality/appeal, order we wait.
Btw my lesson from yestarday was that Scotish vote is stronger than the Irish one 🙂
Argh, yasterday, yesterdey, I miss the post edit button 🙂
Bookies think the same, Rogues amazingly short…
…which surprises me. From my perspective they don’t have the standout universal appeal of C&J and Only Boys Aloud.
Meaning that there is maybe value in another act winning the semi (although not for me, I do the qualifications mainly).
Btw, I have a problem judging these dance acts, Karizma/4Corners/Twist&Pulse all the same rubbish for me.
Until the running order is known ( hopefully the BGT site will be right again ) betting is difficult. Having said that T&P dance look big at 7/4 to qualify, there is no dance act through yet and the TPTB will surely want a diverse a final as possible. Also you have the back story of T&P past BGT runners up putting together a dance trope etc etc. They are also no danger of winning the show so they can safely be put through without threatening the chosen act(s). Lastly is it me or is there too much stage school about Molly to make her that appealing to the public.At the prices i would favour T&P but the running order could be decisive but in a 3 horse race that look value at the moment.
Broadly agree with this. And in the kiddie stakes, Malaki trumps Molly.
bgt site !?
surprise, surprise…
Area 51
Molly Rainford
Ashley Elliott
Twist & Pulse Dance company
Lucky
Dennis Egel
Honey Shazad
The Zimmers
Loveable Rogues
So if that’s the order, it justifies the Loveable Rogues’ short odds and it looks like there’s no producer love for Molly.
Agree with PG’s reasoning on why you would think they might want Twist & Pulse in the final. Will they hit the top three from 4th? Stall 4 does have the best record outside of the last two, but there’s no obvious reason for that.
Could the Zimmers threaten from 8th?
Loveable rogues pimp slot = Win , as to qualify maybe a PV between T&P and the Zimmers maybe? If that order is right 20/1+ on the Zimmers is at the least very tradeable.
What about Honey? She looks like a decent singer. If this is the order it seems there is no producer love for T&P either. I’m jumping again on positions 7 and 8 anyway 🙂
I don’t think Honey stands any chance, her audition time was almost nothing.
From that running order, it’s got to be THE LOVEABLE ROGUES to win the semi snd THE ZIMMERS to be a surprise 2nd place. There aren’t any novelty acts in the final yet and this one fits the bill perfectly for the one to get there. They remind me a lot of Stephen the dancing old guy who opened the final last year. You can still get 25.0 for them to qualify with Boylesports.
However if taking this bet I would advise a saver on TWIST AND PULSE DANCE COMPANY who I think are most likely to join the above acts in the top 3.
Molly is also the value lay.
What a pain, the running order was wrong! Looks like Molly is taking that other place in the top 3 rather than The Zimmers.
Wow, what happened yesterday, luckily I was not able watch it. Luckily because I would go for T&P after top3 announced based on their slot (don’t know yet what the comments after the performances were though).
So while the wrong order on the site could happen anytime (thanks again Andrew for repeatably reminding us each time) I’m concerned about the last two slots which were given to unfavored act (wtf was Dennis doing there btw, still have to watch it). Any view on this?
Hi Boki, I guess they feel the need to have at least one semi where the last to perform is a no-hoper or it might start to look overly predictable to the broader audience as well as the likes of us. That’s what I would do if I were them, anyway.
I wonder what happened on the running order? Did it take them two days to notice they’d unintentionally posted it in performance order, or did they change the order yesterday after posting it, or did they do it deliberately to mess with us? 😉
Ok, understandable for the last one but why putting T&P second last and ditch them?
They announced on Sunday’s show that there’s going to be a wildcard – on Thursday’s show the judges will decide which of the five eliminated 2nd/3rd-placed acts to bring back and give one more place in the final to. My money would be on T&P…
I think it’s possible they changed the running order, perhaps after seeing the rehearsal
Wednesdays line up :
Sam Kelly
Chica Latina
Brynolf and Ljung
Malaki Paul
Nu Sxool
The Sugar Dandies
Beatrix von Bourbon
Gatis Kandis
Be Minor
Thursdays line up :
Strictly Wheels
Aquabatique
Face Team
Billy George
Hope Murphy
Ryan O’S
Callum Oakley
Martyn Crofts
Lazor Harp
Struggle to see a winner coming from these, although there might be some surprises. On the face of it Wednesdays heat should be between Malaki & Sam kelly BUT we have one child singer in the final , so do we need two? and Sam Kelly is also fishing in the same pool as Ryan o ( man with guitar ) who has a better back story. Throw in the fact that there is no dance troupe act in the final yet ( and none coming up on Thursday ) does this pave the way for Nu Sxool to be pimped into the final at the expense of Malaki and/or Sam. As for Thursday that seems to be the Ryan O show complete with ” how i got out of the voice ireland to be here tonight ” back story. With the exception of Ryan i can see a couple of surprises and some big priced qualifiers over the next two nights. Anyone agree??
Broadly agree with all of that – was just pondering the Sam/Ryan quandary myself. In 2009, 5 out of 10 acts in the final were singers, and 4 out of 10 in 2010 and 2011. This year we have four already, with two semis still to go. At first glance, the most likely qualifiers look to be Sam and Malaki tomorrow then Ryan and either Aquabatique or Hope (perhaps more likely the former) on Thursday. Assuming the wildcard goes to Twist and Pulse Dance Company and not The Mend (god forbid more singers), that would leave us with 7 singing acts out of 11 in the final, which strikes me as too many. As such, can we expect sabotage/dampening of Sam tomorrow? Less likely but still possible: will Malaki be too wobbly/unreliable, or will he be in the top 3 but the judges pull the old “I don’t think you’re ready” card? I definitely think he has the narrative and emotional appeal and is distinct enough from Molly though, so I expect him to stay. Ryan on Thursday is likely a given. I can also see Nu Sxool potentially being pimped tomorrow, at the expense of Sam, to get a dance act into the final, especially one that’ll appeal to kids.
Also agree. I don’t think Molly getting through means there’s no room for Malaki, but surely there’s no room for both Sam and Ryan. And as you say it does look very much like tomorrow is set to be the Ryan O show, which implies Sam may find himself under a bus tonight.
Just went through the line up, Sam has to go if Ryan is the favorite on Thursday, two with a guitar just shouldn’t be. Or the other way around but that’s less probable. But that leads us to Molly/Malaki question, they are indeed different enough imo (both appeal and color).
So I expect Sam and Malaki in top3 with 3rd place open to few of them, with Malaki to be in the final. What was the case in previous years, was there always at least one black act in the final?
Or maybe they want to put 2 boy-guitar acts to split the vote and keep them away from beloved J&C? Too much speculation for me, I’m traveling today anyway so see you tomorrow 🙂
Could be, Boki, could be. Although you would think there are easier ways to nobble a boy-with-guitar than the use of another-boy-with-guitar (see e.g. Michael Collings last year). And the final already looks singer-heavy, as eurovicious points out.
Still, though, Sam currently best priced at 1/4 to qualify tonight and you would imagine Ryan O’S ought to be at least as short tomorrow. You would think Hope Murphy will be short tomorrow, too, but is she different enough from Molly not to be surplus to requirements? Intrigued to see what they have in mind.
Interesting theory. I cannot see Ryan missing out tonight, he was probably the strongest act. You have to question why they didn’t put him in an earlier semi final. If he had been earlier in the week and Sam later, Sam would probably not have got through as he doesn’t match up to Ryan. Sam did have the benefit of being in a very weak semi. So what’s going on? Are they both thought of as being dispensible? If Ryan does get through, they will indeed split the vote in the final. If he doesn’t, they already have a singer/guitarist who isn’t strong enough to disrupt the voting on his own.
Well predicted, PG!
Don’t underestimate The Sugar Dandies, I think they’re going to have a lot of appeal and could possibly be pimped. I’m also going to be keeping an eye on Chica Latina -I still think there is room for something daft in the final.
The public won’t vote for them.
Btw, why is Ryan doing so bad on outright, he could be a good back-to-lay option…
The treatment of Sam tonight will be fascinating, an early slot perhaps ? a crap song choice ? Luke warm ” you were better in your audition comments ” red & black styling ? or all of the above. The in play to qualify market should be fun tonight and if they do throw Sam under the proverbial bus then the PV could between 2 big price outsiders, to be determined by running order and level of pimping. At present we have no dance troupe or novelty act in the final , so there must be room for at least one of this type of act not withstanding the wildcard choice. At the moment you can get 4/1 Nu sxool , 12/1 the magicians , 16/1 chica & 16/1 sugar dandies to qualify tonight must be value there somewhere but without a know running order it is hard to pinpoint. Anyone got any strong fancies for tonight?
I know this wasn’t in the right order yesterday, but anyway here’s the listing on the BGT site for what it’s worth –
Nu Sxool
Brynolf and Ljung
Beatrix Von Bourbon
Malakai Paul
Chica Latina
Be Minor
Sugar Dandies
Gatis Kandis
Sam Kelly
Sam in the pimp slot or under the bus? Too many unknowns at this stage.
You can currently get 20/1 for The Sugar Dandies to qualify which in my opinion is very overpriced.
Looks like bus cancelled for Sam. The final is going to be very singer heavy!
The acts were so poor tonight that Ant had to beg the viewers to vote.
Is the singer heavy line-up an excuse not to give The Mend the wildcard?
I’ve heard them mentioned as favourites for the wildcard 3 times on BGT or it’s relative This Morning (by BGMoreT presenter Stephen Mulhern), but I’m beginning to see the mentions as a red herring.
Hi R, I notice on oddschecker just now that Skybet have opened a market on the wildcard, in which The Mend are 4/5 and T&P Dance Company 7/4. I’d been just kind of assuming it would be T&P given the singer-heaviness of it – surprised to see them at that sort of price.
Hi Andrew,
That is short for The Mend, and not worth the risk in my opinion. But the Wildcard can only go to them or T&P.
I’ve been trying to order the finalists to see if it’s possible to have singers in alternate positions, or if a choir can be differentiated from a boy band/ girl singer/ boy on guitar etc. It’s not working out with Ryan also added to the final.
I’m starting to think you could be right with T&P going through & The Mend coming back for TXF.
Does the wildcard only come from the rejected 5 in the public vote or could it be any of the rejected acts?
Hey all, I think it’s likely that the wildcard is going to come from the 5 rejected acts. On Britain’s Got More Talent it has been suggested that either The Mend or Twist and Pulse could be the wildcard.
However I have done a twit of research and it seems that Twist and Pulse have some news coming tomorrow morning, and they managed to get #twistandpulse4wildcard trending. The Mend were also trying to get it trending are saying that tomorrow is judgement day.
I’ve backed Twist and Pulse with Skybet.
Good luck, Tim.
A random thought re The Mend. Mightn’t it make sense to create will-they-won’t-they tension about them through the week, have them just miss out on the wildcard, and then pop up again in the XF auditions in a couple of months? Nobody would begrudge them a second bite at the cherry and they’d be off to a flying start in what has traditionally been a problem category.
Ingenious.
But wrong 😉
Depending on how much a threat the Loveable rogues are perceived to be then you could make a case for the mend to be added to the line up via wildcard to dilute their vote. Also the more singers the more the dog act looks unique in the final.
Lastly can anyone remember in the final last year did the 5 runners up go in spots 1 – 5 with the semi winners going 6 – 10 or did i just imagine that?
Hi PG, just checked on wiki and almost! Swap 3rd and 7th around and it would have been. They mixed it up more in previous years, though.
Thanks Andrew.
Any ideas about Ryan tonight, I’m clueless since he could win or even go home qt this point.
Aquabatique to open or close the show because of water tanks?
Does Cowell want a final packed with singers?
It will be hard for him to de-ramp Ryan in a semi this poor. And he put Sam in yesterday, spreading the good singers between the semis.
Is it to make the dog stand out, or to outdo his competition The Voice? Or just to make the semis themselves more diverse and interesting?
I’ve got a suspicion Cowell’s got an over-active eye on The Voice. (I remember him saying he felt physically sick when Idol was successful because he wasn’t part of it).
I see Ryan is about 1.4-1.5 to qualify together with Hope slightly longer so the bookies have chosen for the singers. Still much longer than Sam yesterday.
FYI The Mend have been pimped by the BGT app as possibly being the wildcard.
It very much looks like Ryan to win tonight and Aquabatique to be put through by the judges. Does anyone agree?
It seems so but I would like to see the Aqua in top3 first.
Ryan has to win, but I favour Callum and Face Team to buck the trend.
Ok, got that wrong then.
Tim, would they prefer Aqua also over Billy? I’m not sure about that one.
Yes I’m very sure. He has a chance to make the top 3, but I’m expecting 1. Ryan 2. Aquabatique 3. Hope
She has no Hope of qualifying.
Well, I was afraid of Billy and didn’t pull the trigger, at least my Ryan b2l worked, I backed him @50+ 🙂
Massive market over reaction to Ryan IMO as low as 4/1 to win surely terrible odds. Didn’t see the show but he can’t have been that good. Must be a Two horse race A&P and J&C may come down to who gets the best edit or later running slot. Anyone see any other outcomes?
Yes, I agree, with A&P to win. (They seem to be getting more of a mention from the judges). Only Boys Aloud to be third. Anyone’s guess after that.
Who will get the unfavourable number one draw for Saturday? I would put money on Nu Skool.
Sam Kelly or the wildcard for me.
I don’t see Boys Aloud in the top 3.
Ryan was already as low as 20/1 before tonight’s show and seems to be ahead of Sam based on performance.
The overreaction may be because Simon said one of the acts from tonight could win the whole thing – obviously hinting at Ryan. And Ryan did come across as the star act when compared to a guy with a pan on his head, a topless hula hoop guy and some women swimming.
He must have looked world class compared to those great acts! Seriously he cannot win to many young male singers individually or in groups and they will surely all just dilute each others vote. Maybe Molly or even nu Sxool gets third place just because they are different.