X Factor 2011 Final Saturday Update: Little Mix in pole position

We had occasionally wondered if producers might think it was job done having got Little Mix to the final. That’s not the case. The lesson of tonight was unequivocally that producers think Little Mix can win, and very much want them to win. The markets reacted accordingly, with the girl group now as short as 2/7 to take the crown.

After both performances, Marcus was immediately followed by Little Mix, while Little Mix were immediately followed by an ad break. When votes are open, as they were from the start of the show, being followed by an ad break is an advantage – it gives time for voters to hit the phones without another act distracting them.

Despite Amelia being ostensibly in the pimp slot, the signs could not have been clearer that she was intended to leave us tonight. One firm indication was when Amelia was shoved down the memory hole after her first performance by immediately being followed by not one but two big hitters in JLS and One Direction, and after her second performance by being immediately followed by Leona.

Effectively, what we saw was Little Mix in the pimp slot out of the only two real contenders; Amelia singing third on Saturday cleverly allows Little Mix to get the Sunday pimp slot without it looking too much like favouritism.

We were somewhat surprised when Betfair scored round one to Little Mix, as we felt there was little to choose between the big production performances while it looked to us that Marcus won the battle of the VTs, if only because emotional homecomings work so much better when there is only one act to focus on rather than four to be rushed through.

The surrogate dad vibe we mentioned in the preview article was there in abundance when Gary sat down for a cup of tea and a chat with nana and grandad, looking for all the world like a suitor for Mrs Collins. The contrast couldn’t have been greater with Kelly’s and Amelia’s slightly awkward moments in the back of a Middlesbrough taxi.

If you were wondering whether or not the red and black scheme during Amelia’s first song was significant, the writing on the wall was clear when Louis began his comments by reminding us she had been kicked out in week one, and Tulisa reminded us she hadn’t been in the competition right from the start.

We again thought there was little to choose between the two remaining finalists from round two. Marcus couldn’t have asked for much more from his VT, and Gary had cleverly arranged the song to allow him to sing the lower lines and Marcus to play to his strengths with the higher line solos and harmonising.

While Marcus and Gary again looked like son and surrogate dad, Tulisa being six inches taller than all of the uniformly-high Little Mix girls did make her look a bit like their schoolmistress. We certainly learned that Tulisa can sing live, and again we thought there was no clear winner between the two in terms of performance.

In the comments, ganix points out that Marcus’s duet was noticeably not followed by a shot of his mum blubbing, but an interview with his old boss. But then, as Richard noted in his live blog at Betsfactor about the girls’ duet, “Olly Murs talking to the Mayor of South Shields is hardly the image we want on our screens immediately after either”.

Kelly duetting with Amelia visually looked like a hen night karaoke at times, but vocally was good, too. The love-in VT felt unconvincing, though, and it certainly wasn’t the gamechanging moment the Middlesbrough lass needed.

So three have become two. It’s all to play for on Sunday, and while we are slightly surprised by the extent of the market reaction given that we thought Marcus won the VTs and drew the performances, we have to allow for the possibility that we were seeing what we wanted to see – and we certainly can’t argue with the evidence that producers are playing to win for the girl group. Will they do it? We’re looking forward to finding out!

What did you make of the Saturday show? Do let us know in the comments box below.

145 comments to X Factor 2011 Final Saturday Update: Little Mix in pole position

  • Curtis

    As I just posted on the other topic, I think Little Mix have this stitched. I personally think they won the performances, particularly the duet. I liked Marcus’ in terms of quality, but I can tell that some poeple would’ve found it bland compared to Little Mix’s. The audience response was audibly better for Little Mix than Marcus.

    I personally think that the voting figures are going to show a landslide victory for Little Mix tomorrow.

    • Jack

      I’m sorry, I don’t agree. Marcus seems to appeal to all ages and the mum/grandma vote will win it in the end. The duet was incredible and I think that the running order is pretty well redundant now. Marcus to win.

      • Jack

        And don’t forget, the majority of Marcus backers are the older people who don’t use Twitter. This is why X Factor Tracker got it wrong last week.

        • Curtis

          Don’t worry, I have no trust for the X Factor tracker. This is my instinct. If I am wrong, then it will be for the reason you stated – the mum/grandma vote. I think you’ve overestimated it, but maybe it’s just me underestimating it.

          • prophetofdoom

            xfactortracker got it wrong because it is flawed. My own twitter stats had Misha clear fourth last week, and Amelia clear third this week. Oh, and LM winning both weeks.

  • Had the show even finished when your article was up? Lightning quick.

    As you say, Amelia needed something big and didn’t get it, and in fact the mentor duets only served to show the lack of chemistry between Kelly and Amelia. Why on earth didn’t they push to get Misha in the final? I’m sure they could have done it and Kelly would have been much more comfortable.

    The only area I can’t agree is that we saw a weak evening for Marcus; the first song was just plain odd, and the second only showed how much better Gary was. The lack of crying mum all added into an evening which was far ideal for him; I’ll get a prediction for you if I can, but looks like Little Mix are in the home straight to me.

  • bobo

    How has your prediction model done? I’m roughly double profit on marcus and contemplaying moving more toward 50/50 but at 1.4 you dont get a lot of Mix for your Marcus. And I still think the good ship can do it. I reckon Marcus may have won tonight in the votes but I do worry about tomorrow.

  • CS

    I would disagree about the duets. I thought that Little Mix seemed more like Tulisa’s backing group, with her being the only one to sing any solo lines.

    I thought that the way they arranged Marcus and Gary’s duet was very clever; giving Gary the more negative, dark lines to sing and leaving Marcus with the more positive ones for him to dedicate to his Mum, plus also getting around the possible issues of his range too.

    I enjoyed Amelia’s duet with Kelly, thought she sounded strong vocally, but they really neglected to do much with the ‘supportive dad’ storyline – we didn’t even get to see him when she went back home!

    My money is on the Good Ship – hope his voters come through for him!

    • Matt

      I completely agree re the duets. I thought Little Mix came across as a backing group. Very hard to call. Marcus must have a strong vote base behind him from the mums and grans – can Little Mix do what no other group has done and trump the show? I remain doubtfull, but probably won’t bet on it…

  • taichou

    hey Pete when u’ll be reading this that means im allready on my 2nd red:)

    • Pete D

      taichou. No doubt you will have had many ‘reds’ by now and a lot more too tonight. Antibiotic course finished yesterday so I have the ‘Shampoo’ on chill for later (Great timing Doc, thanks).

      Forecast/wins bets guaranteed up already now regardless. LM/MC order will just double the amount (and the KARAOKE SCREAMER has gone too…BONUS….Yaaaay!. A truly great day for the British Justice system and my ‘ears’).

  • BoomBoom

    This season, and tonight, we’ve seen just how damaging it was for the show to lose the judges they had.

    What’s happened is that the show has lost the ability to create ‘game changing’ moments which gives it much greater control over the outcome.

    With no Simon, no Cheryl and her ‘wow’ moments, no tears from Dannii, the comments and emotions of the current crop just seem vaccuous. I doubt anyone was moved by Tulisa’s tears in the LM vt.

    So the product was that tonight felt like little more than dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s of this series – there was no ‘moment’, no spine-tingling performance (which always requires believable gushing from the judges) and overall very little to change the lie of the land.

  • Lux Lisbon

    Just been on the Little Mix website, and bought a Perrie tea tray – apparently, it carries three mugs.

  • Lux Lisbon

    What a god-awful show.

    If Little Mix do end up winning this thing tomorrow, remember the old phrase, everyone: All horses look fast going past trees.

  • Donald

    Well what can I say, thanks Daniel and Andrew and everyone on Sofabet.

    And the person who encouraged the focecast LM and MC whose name I can’t remember but will find the post tomorrow.

    This is some place best Betting site on the whole web.

    An absolute credit to all.

    Going to be interesting tomorrow!

    Hope the good ship wins but the prod

    • Pete D

      Donald. I’ll save you the search. It was Moi. and glad to be of service my friend if it comes up trumps for you (if it doesn’t, my name is Simon). Hope you got the s/f/c @ 66/1 too and the win also @ 66/1, (though it’s not over till the fat lady sings I always say).

      I reversed it all too, so I’m covered almost the same anyway.

  • Rad

    Dermot also reminded us to vote for Marcus and Little Mix and flashed up their voting numbers whilst Amelia was still on-screen.

  • EM

    Another clinical strike. For all we’ve slated the quality of the show this year and blamed the work experience producers when it comes to shedding the acts they’ve nailed it each week.

    As soon as Dermot said comeback kid topped by Louis’s comment on potential and Tulisa’s insinuation she’d only worked half as hard then I knew Amelia was toast.

    As much as my wallet says Marcus I think the mix will get the kitchen sink tonight and Joe/Ray will find a lot of red lighting beaming down on him from the Wembley rafters.

  • stoney

    just wanted to point out something i noticed you saying in this article, you said that viewers were reminded that amelia hasnt been back in the competition long which is true, but viewers were also told by gary that little mix have only known each other a few months, could this have a negative effect on votes too?

    • Mark (mapps)

      Hi stoney ,

      I picked up on that too the comment about lm not knowing each other long and being put together – and I had it down as s negative as I said on the bf forum!!

      I think Marcus deserves it more than lm too to be honest – but that doesn’t mean anything sadly when it comes to winning shows like this!!

  • Malcolm

    Thought little mix looked a much more finished product in the opening song sung with Marcus and Amelia. I liked thier duet with Tulisa too, much more contempory . I think people are voting for little mix because they want a group to win, I agree with some of the earlier comments, still no wow moments.

  • Chloe

    Another clinical execution! The problem is that the producers have been much better at knee-capping contestants than making the most of the talent.

    I also expect the red light to shine on Marcus tonight.

  • annie

    Og, God, I actually thought I was getting better at this, but apparently not.
    Watching the show I was under the impression that neither of Little Mixes performances worked really well. I wasn’t fond of the military arrangement for You got the Love, and thoyght the denim styling, hair and those striky awfull earings made them look a bit too cheap. It was a bit like week 1 reloaded, which I found very messy too. I thought Amelia looked much better on her first song and sounded powerful, I thought she did well on the big stage. I also like the dynamic of her duet with kelly. I thoughrt they actually looked like getting on and I liked the chemistry.
    So much for my assessment of music, but I am happy it turned out the way it did. My bet is still on Marcus, but I do hope Little Mix will take the crown, it would be nice for such a random group to win.
    ps. I don’t like the wembley setting at all. I think the show works much much better in the smaller studio setting. I now realise that’s what I dont like about the us version, the toooo big setting.

  • Simon "le stoic chat"

    Little Mix are certainly on pole position as sure as AMELIA was thrown to the dogs.

    However there is no guarentee that LM although as Daniel says on pole position have this in the bag.

    Another explanation consistent with last night’s pimping is that MARCUS has so much of the vote he was nailed on for the final anyway and it was LM that needed all the help to get them there too ahead of AMELA.

    Little Mix could well be going first this evening illuminated in red and black. IfMARCUS has a good song choice and sings well and is not stuffed by TPTB he will win this.

    Thing is we dont know what the margin is between the two acts- we only know that neither has been in the bottom 2. The judges are not performing tonight so their comments can make a difference.
    Also the bookies consistently get it wrong in these two horse fields- eg Gareth Gates (red hot fav) and Will Young, Rydian and Scotty, JAI and whoever the odds on fav was he beat in 2011 BGT

    Not at all.
    I’m already quids in with the Good Ship and am in a no lose position tonight. Good luck to all and to PETE D with your monster LM bet

    Finally a huge thank you to Daniel and Andrew for their incisive observations and to everyone else who contributes and makes this such a terrific site.

    • Pete D

      Simon “le happy chappy chat”.

      Well thank you my friend and ‘good luck’ to you too !! At the moment if MC wins my bets are the size of 4 x Parallel V-Twin cruisers ticking over (not Harley Davidsons, as the news leak said, because my biker pal reckons they were a Kawasaki). Boy oh boy, what a blinkin’ brilliant entrance THAT WAS though. MARCUS’ too (pity all those gorgeous hot ‘Trolly Dollies’ were wasted on him though, but I think he was happy with the Pilot anyway).

      BUT by tonight they could be the size of a dirty great SMOKIN’ MONSTER STEAMROLLER alright.

      It is just possible that I may have a small prezzy for you ‘if’ I can find it (so no promises). The problem being of how to get it to you. I will think of a way and might set up a temporary email addy for you to get post details to me. We’ll see.

      Suppose you will have the Harveys Bristol Cream ready for tonight then ? lol

  • Mark (mapps)

    Simon is there a list of the song choices yet? I assume they sing 2/3 times tonight again?

    Hopefully Marcus gets a belter of a song and the 2nd slot

    But as you say the markets get it wrong a lot last years bgt was ronan parke went to near 1/10 and got turned over

    REMEMBER everyone it’s at 730 tonight!!

    It will be a good final none the less – the bbc mentioned x factor this morning briefly and only showed Gary and Marcus – and when they did the review of the papers “little fix” on the front of one again – could this not affect votes for little mix?!

    • Jack

      Unconfirmed as of yet, but I’ve heard there will be four songs each sung tonight, which will be:

      1. Audition Song
      2. Favourite Live Show Song
      3. Christmas Song
      4. Winner’s Song

      From what I’ve heard this means:


      1. Signed, Sealed, Delivered
      2. Reet Petite
      3. White Christmas
      4. Cannonball


      1.Cry Me A River (Second Judge’s Houses Song, after Big Girls Don’t Cry)
      2. Don’t Let Go (Love)
      3. All I Want For Christmas Is You
      4. Cannonball

      I think all of those songs could work for them, but the opportunity for Marcus to reprise Reet Petite could be key, as well as LM’s surprising decision not to sing ET.

      • No, singing Don’t Let Go is a MUCH better bet. The En Vogue original from 1997 shot back to something like Number 23 on downloads, one of the few songs this series to have it’s original get back in the Top 40.

        I liked ET, but Don’t Let Go was definitely “The Moment” for me.

      • There was a huge twitter surge for Little Mix after Don’t Let Go, and there wasn’t after ET – that’s just from the numbers, without any interpretation from me.

        So it is the breakthrough song for them and makes sense.

        I also preferred ET though!

      • CS

        So Marcus didn’t do Reet Petite after all and opted for preacher-Marcus instead. Hope that doesn’t cost him precious votes!

        Presumably the producers can see the acts’ popularity climb and fall week to week so know whether this particular song choice will be a popular one for them with the voting public. Hope this isn’t a sign of subtle producer sabotage!

  • stoney

    I have a big lump coming in if marcus wins so i am a tad biased, and seeing as he is leading the youguv poll and was put on first last night in a female dominated competition there is every possiblity that he is leading the votes, and that to the fact that little mix were called safe first with tulisa once again BEGGING for votes on the xtra factor and this is not as cut and dry as the bookies would lead us to believe. I mean who the hell is punting on little mix to win at 1/3, thats absurd, i am sure the producers are favoring the little mix win but its still going to go down the the very last song performance in my opinion. Now judging by last nights performance i have to say that if you take away the big stage show then marcus gave the worst performance with hey ya, this was almost as bad a song choice as can you feel it in the semi final, talk about trying to throw away your chances!!! However i think that duet wise gary and marcus shone and the votes for that performance would have seen him come through. Im happy he has made the final 2 not only because i have a ticket, but because his song choices are far more impressive, signed sealed delivered, reet petit, white xmas, winners song, this will seal the housewive vote and land him the title, time to give my keyboard a rest now 🙂

  • Lux Lisbon

    Lux’s Poem for Janet:

    When I’m asleep, or walking, or biking,

    I think of your voice so lovely and striking,

    Every day I adore you moreso,

    I’d drink your bathwater through a straw so.


    • R


      All 12 finalists will be singing as a group tonight. So Janet will be on the show;-)

      • Lux Lisbon

        Coolio, my friend – thanks for the heads up 🙂

      • Pauline

        With Janet on and Cold Play I guess I’ll be watching again.

        Lux. Love the poem.

        • Lux Lisbon

          Thank you, superstar – quite how that girl did not get into the final after that dog’s dinner of a show last night, heaven only knows.

          I’ll keep fighting her corner with you while there is breath still left in my body.

          • annemarie

            Me too, Pauline and Lux.

            Janet along with Misha, were head and shoulders above the rest. I could not warm to Misha as a person but she does have a good voice. Janet’s voice is something else though (not to everyone’s taste, I know, at the risk of boring other contributors). Her voice has such a beautiful haunting quality. I just keep listening over and again to the tracks of her songs I have downloaded.

            I often look at the ‘Wishing on a Star’ video too and think, in that in the order the individuals vocalists appear, was that how the final three was meant to pan out originally? And that someone messed up somewhere (mostly the judges and mentors, I fear). I do hope Marcus steals the X Factor crown from under the noses of Little Mix but somehow can’t see that happening now. Perhaps, we have to brace ourselves next Christmas for the little ones asking for ‘Little Mix’ dolls! Shudder the thought.

            P.S. Loved your poem too, Lux. Did you miss your calling in life?? Had to look up the ‘daffodil in the dustbin’ quote. Eric Sykes is a wise old sage too! Not saying you are old Lux, just that Eric is!!

          • Lux Lisbon

            Thanks, Anne Marie – ‘haunting’ is spot on to describe Miss Devlin’s vocals – the rest were just too generic and predictable. LM are just walking cliches.

            Haha, no I didn’t miss my calling in life, honeypie, I AM a poet, and that particular poem I cobbled together in thirty seconds as I sauntered into town yesterday.

            Just waiting for Janet’s debut single to be released – I’ve got the flags, the bunting, the marching band and the fireworks on standby.

          • Pauline

            Lux. AnneMarie. And the Champers. I was reading on another site. This guy said he drove 75 miles to see Janet undecided what to expect, because he had been influenced by the machinations of the X Factor. He went on to say that he was overwhelmed. She was outstanding and came across as a highly intelligent, wholesome person who knew her own worth. He also said that she is a stunningly beautiful young woman, whom you would have to be in the presence of to get the full effect. Her family must be very proud. Love her and will be out there buying whatever, she produces. I haven’t been moved like this for a very long time. The innocence maybe, can’t explain it.

          • Lux Lisbon

            Oh, Pauline, stop it, please! This is what I feared: that Janet would end up being more of a beautiful, unique, butterfly-angel than I originally thought she was…and now you’ve proved that to be true.

            I think if a person has integrity, humbleness, honesty and a beautiful soul it radiates through them to the outside; I guess that is what you, annemarie and I can see.

            I think I’m going to have to join The French Foreign Legion to forget her.

            It’s along time since I’ve been effected by such a person in this way, too.

          • Pauline

            Lux. You’re O.K.

  • R

    X Factor the Final – An alternate ending.

    With just hours to go before the final show, Lord Justice Leveson is idly surfing the World Wide Web when he stumbles upon a Sofabet review of his favourite show – the X Factor
    Shocked by what he reads, and still upset by the dismissal of his favourite contestant (Kitty), Leveson initiates an immediate investigation into the show.
    Several hours later and Marcus Collins is on stage when the police raid the live show. In the kerfuffle, one of the large silver stars hanging above the stage falls knocking Marcus unconscious and into a coma.
    The Judges and producers are promptly arrested for fraud and quickly reveal the full roles they played in subverting public thought. Barlow, Walsh and Rowland are cautioned and released while Tulisa is put behind bars for breaking the rules of her previous suspended sentence.
    #TulisaJailbait becomes the number 1 Twitter trend of the year.
    The public anger over the fix leads to the show being cancelled and David Cameron announcing one final public vote to decide the winner, with all proceeds helping to pay off the national debt. The government overspend on organising the vote with the final cost coming to £2.4bn.
    Jade Richards and Melanie McCabe are added to the shortlist, but Janet Devlin, who becomes a national hero after her monumental battle against TPTB is revealed in the investigation, withdraws from the vote to concentrate on her career.
    After all ten votes are counted and verified, the final three of the X Factor 2011 is:
    3rd – Craig Colton
    2nd – Marcus Collins
    1st – Jade Richards
    Meanwhile, Janet rides the wave of public affection to release her first single “Foreseeable Future, Unfortunate Past” just in time for Christmas. It’s an instant smash and the fastest selling single since Band Aid, hitting number 1 in the first week of release and staying there for a record breaking 19 weeks.
    She is finally knocked off no.1 by Hanson’s dub-step version of the same song.
    Janet’s debut album “The biggest thing since sheep” goes on to become a worldwide phenomenon and a new trend of artists pretending to forget the words to their songs goes global.
    With public anger over Misha B’s favouritism, the urban rapper quickly fades from the limelight and ends up working as a toilet attendant in Newcastle. Her career is resurrected when a video posted on Youtube shows her being verbally abused by an inebriated Cheryl Cole before a sharp left hook brings an abrupt end to the weak Geordie vocals.
    Cheryl denies the incident ever happened, but with TPTB unavailable to rewrite history, she goes on to remarry Ashley Cole as penance and regains public sympathy.
    Ameila is also shunned by the public following the revelation that being dropped and brought back was part of the predetermined plan. She struggles to find employment until Kelly Rowland takes the girl under her wing and finds her some work at The Box strip club in London under the stage name of Lily the Pink.
    Craig Colton, thrust back into the limelight as a victim of the show, uses Jar of Hearts as the template for his writing.
    His self-penned single, Packet of Hobnobs, reaches number 2 in the UK charts. His follow up singles, Bourbons Are Forever and The Man with the Golden Crumb don’t fare as well.
    The feel- good story of the year arrives in summer as Marcus wakes from his coma. His debut single, a cover of On the Good Ship Lollipop spends 2 weeks in the top spot. He is then unexpectedly invited to the White House to sing the Star Spangled Banner – no one can explain why.
    The Little Mix girls are discovered to be a group of radio-controlled robots operated by Simon Cowell from his private island. The girls are immediately dismantled and put into storage. The dancing in their ET performance is revealed to have been a system malfunction caused by an electrical fault when Jesy’s tears got into the circuitry.
    Kitty and Lord Leveson marry in the summer in a spectacular ceremony personally designed by Kitty. The day goes off without a hitch except for the gold armour plated Lipizzan stallions that escape the ceremony and stampede through Hyde Park.
    Leveson declares bankruptcy the following year.

  • Kate

    There’s a few speculative comments on here about who’s going on first tonight but I wonder if placing is really a factor any more. There are only two acts now, singing multiple songs. The chances of either fading from the audience’s memory are slender to none and the phonelines will be open throughout.

    The same applies to last night. I’ve seen a few angry Amelia fans complain that she lost out by singing third on the night. So much for the pimp slot!

  • Highlighted

    The wonder of the X Factor. Can even make Marcus and Little Mix look better than the likes of Janet, Amelia and Misha B. OK with Amelia I suppose its fair enough that she got kicked off to begin with, I think if she had not she would have got a larger fan base. However Janet and Misha were certainly killed in this show. I think irrespective of the missing lyrics from Janet she would have gone out around the QF stage anyway just because how the producers kept stabbing her in the back (or even they just outright killed her off). Misha B and bullygate really affected her. I am not sayin she could have gone on to win it, as at that stage she was around 4th fave anyway, however by the SF most had agreed she was actually really talented, just not likeable. Why was she not likeable? Well despite the producers realising their mistake and trying to get things back on track, bullygate had already done the damage.

    Just goes to show what this show can do even with average talent like the 2 finalists we have on show today. There are several screaming tennagers (and even older) around the country in support for these acts, who lets be honest, are not even that good. The most original and talented acts have long since gone. I don’t mind Little Mix so much, but really hope I don’t have to listen to Marcus the West End performer in the charts.

    I just get confused how audiences of this show out there really get sucked into all the hype that producers intend for these performers. I guess because alot of them are the younger generation, for that reasdon I have Little Mix far ahead in the votes (though lack of text voting will have cost them some)

  • Ben Cook

    I still say it’s probably close enough that it will be the Cannonball performances that decide it

  • sam

    comment for andrew/daniel.
    just wondering if you plan to do a series round up after tonights final,i dont wont in disrupt the current thread so only wondering as i think it will be interesting to hear your and peoples view of the whole series as its been one hell of a rollercoster this year.

  • mark

    lets not forget little mix polled 5% on the best singers on the yougov poll.they simple can not sing as-one.i do like the girls dont get me wrong.all the under 16 will be voting for them .will mum and dad let them ring up now ,now that the text voting has stop they will have to hammer the phone lines..onto marcuss gary has not done him any favours giving him a load of bad songs to sing.when he has been given the right song he has shone above all.given then right song he would but streets ahead now and we might aswell would have stopped it now,marcuss can sing and entertain at the same time.never been in the papers ,most down to earth guy anyone could have a chat with.
    going onto sunday night cannonball song
    little mix will stuggle again bacause they will have to sing as-one .which they cant do.marcuss will enjoy this song it will suite him right down to earth.with the high and low pitches.this song is a bit like lately where people over 30s will see how good marcuss is.and yes i am one of them over 30s.
    good luck to both marcuss and little mix.
    but for me its marcuss to lose now.
    he can only lose if he bums the cannonball song.

  • Boki

    I find LM as deserved favourite but not at these odds, should be much closer. They are more likely to pick up Amelia’s votes and that might be crucial tonight imo. Indeed good luck to both MC & LM and their backers also.

  • ganix

    This is going to be an interesting night! What with all the hype surrounding Little Mix, at times it seems inconceivable that they WON’T win. But then there is the small matter of THAT YouGov poll. What does it tell us? Well, that Marcus had more support than Little Mix when it was down to the final 3, but that the top 2 are now even. But will Amelia voters (who seem to favour LM) really bother to vote again now she’s been kicked out? I would argue that not too many would (or at least, not all of them) – so the 50/50 support for LM/Marcus is misleading.

    What else has Marcus got going for him? He’s the only boy. He’s (almost) the only ethnic minority contestant (this apparently matters, with 18% of Marcus backers saying they voted for Misha in the semis, compared to 8% for LM and 13% for Amelia). He’s got Gary (the favourite judge, according to YouGov). He’s the best dancer, the best remaining singer, and the contestant most viewers want to go for a drink with. Plus he appeals to older viewers in a way that LM just don’t (does your grandma like rapping and beatboxing?)

    Despite what I said at the start, when you look at the cold, hard facts for long enough, it becomes inconceivable that MARCUS will not win. But if he doesn’t, it will be because of one thing: multiple voting. LM voters seem a lot more enthused. They have the “Obama” factor (first girl group winner/first black president), and will likely Get Out The Vote more effectively. And when those votes are coming multiple times from many voters, (and I hate to say this), this could be the night the Good Ship is finally laid to rest at the bottom of the sea.

    Still, the lack of text voting will hopefully reduce multiple voting for LM to some degree. We shall see.

  • Final traffic results set are up.


    littlemix are looking like they’ve got clear air from Marcus now

    • Thanks Toby.

      Run everything through, and I have Amelia 3rd by a long way.

      And now, the official 2011 X Factor exit poll…brought to you by tpfgov….previous health warning over no text voting still applies:




      I have Little Mix with 69% of the 2 person vote. More significantly, I have a 2.3% swing to Little Mix from Marcus compared to a week ago.

  • Chris O

    Just wanted to pop by and say a couple of things. Well done to the guys on this website, superb content, and well written. Some of the posts might not have got it spot on but that is irrelevant as it has opened up some great (and some not so good) debating.

    I would usually refrain from making any predictions but as things stand at the mo, Little Mix are now destroying every poll online. Xfactortracker.com has them a distance clear, the slightly barmy and LM favouring DigitalSpy has them at 78% LM and 22% Marcus, http://xfactor-updates.com/pollsarchive/ is even bigger at 86%, unrealitytv.co.uk has them at 73%. In fact, I havent seen a recent poll with anything less than a 20% gap. Thats a lot for the older generation of non-internet forum voting Marcus fans to make up.

    Irrespective of what Marcus fans may think, I am fairly certain they now need a big slip up from the girls and Marcus to be perfect, and even that would only get it to a coin flip at best.

    Final Prediction

    LITTLE MIX – 62%
    MARCUS – 38%

  • mark

    chirs o
    polls on line mean nothing..
    the poll i would trust is the yougov poll.gets it right all the time.
    they fan base is kids(how much pocket money does a kid get).everyone over 30 will decide the vote.they pay the bills on the phone line. be all and end of it.all these people have been going on facebook and twitter trying to get people voting for little mix.even there mentor was begging for votes last week.what does this tell us.they have seen marcuss is clear on the yougov poll and will get more votes of the over 30s.gary has never begged for votes of the public for marcuss.he does not need to sell him.marcuss sells himself
    i did not like it when little mix mentor was begging for votes ,like i say i like the girls. butthat had put me of voting for them and voting for marcuss instead.people have to ask why little mix mentor is begging for votes,does the mentor know something we dont know and they are behind marcuss.why ask for vote,if people like them they would vote for them.

    • Kate

      It’s a false assumption that kids don’t have access to phones. Even when there’s no or limited access to landlines I can’t imagine that the vast majority of under 30s don’t have a mobile phone of some kind.

      The impact of this will be on mobile voting and particularly the difference between the cost of calling for a landline and from a mobile. From a landline a call is 36p (according to on screen announcements); as they say “mobile rates may vary” but last night I found that a single vote cost me 50p. Which is about as much as a packet of sweets.

      It strikes me therefore that limited mobile voting (which I’ll define here as 3 or more votes from a single phone) is well within the spending power of the average teen- or tweenage X Factor voter. 3 votes for £1.50 or 5 for £2.50 is not a great hardship even in these straitened times.

      5 votes on a BT line would set you back £1.75. There is a gap but not a psychologically huge one.

      I also tend to feel – without any hard evidence to back me up admittedly – that landline users will be less inclined to make multiple calls. If these viewers are the casuals then would they necessarily want to vote for an act more than 2 or 3 times?

      I’m not sure that I buy the demographics of pitching Marcus-voting-oldies against LM-voting-kids, but if this is the case then I don’t believe it gives Marcus a certain edge. Even the loss of text votes this week doesn’t necessarily tip it in his favour; a single text vote in previous weeks has set me back 35p – a difference from a phone vote of just 15p.

  • Chris O

    (imagines a world where ‘mark’ writes the Racing Post race summary and horse comments)


  • mark

    Kate i good write up.
    kids top there phones with text and mins.mum and dad will have to give them extra cash.but as yougov tells us are as follows.
    little mix
    a lily.
    the sun did the same
    mc 31
    lm 27
    This give a clear picture of .people on the streets. Yougov poll rules. LM should be miles ahead like lm fans think.facts are there in black and white.

    • Kate

      The YouGov poll may well be accurate, but it isn’t a “fact” in any sense.

      Your objection to my criticisms seems to be that parents won’t give children money to top up their phones, thus limiting the opportunities for multiple voting for Little Mix. I’m sure this will apply in some cases, but it’s a specious generalisation, especially when the cost of a minimum top-up is comparatively low.

      It will certain deter kids from voting 100 times for Little Mix (or Marcus for that matter) but not, e.g., 20 votes – which on my phone would be a psychologically unremarkable £10.

      You also fail to address my point that casual viewers will be less inclined to multiple voting, even for a favoured act.

      I’m not discounting the poll, or the possibility that Marcus has an edge over LM that online analysis doesn’t reveal. I’m just not convinced that the edge is either as clear-cut or as insurmountable as you seem to believe.

      The only “fact” is the one that will be revealed in around two hours.

  • Pete D

    Looks likely to be a landslide vote tonight. Good luck all you LITTLE (and ‘BIG’) MIXERS and MARCUSites out there. May the force be with you and may the best performing act win.
    I’m off now to PAAARTAAAAAY regardless !


  • Jake

    Marcus singing Higher & Higher and Last Christmas
    Little Mix: Silent Night and Don’t Let Me Go

    What is Marcus thinking… He’s not even performing his main trump card Reet Petite!

    • Jake

      Only Silver Lining is that Marcus has a much greater variety of songs (because he is also singing Cannonball).

      All of Little Mix’s songs are slow. But then again ballads are vote stealers…

  • mark

    marcuss topped the suns viewer poll apart from 1.i dont think for once the sun wants marcuss to win.it was in small writing.marcuss wins the xfactor printed in yesterday paper.let me tell you they have very good contacts

  • Highlighted

    All the judges have come out to red and black staging? By the betsfactor theory does that mean its curtains for most the judges?

  • Pauline

    I don’t know if I have missed something, but haven’t next years applicants’ been invited to apply by now.

  • urghhh….pink shirt, crucifixtion position; what is Marcus thinking?!

  • Highlighted

    Kelly’s statement after Marcus first song almost sounded like a resignation for him that he is bound to come 2nd. ‘Hope you enjoyed every moment and be glad you came this far’

  • Lux Lisbon

    Yep, sounded like that to me, too.

  • sam

    im sorry but im not going to slag marcus off here(to much) but WHAT!!!!.Hes not god ,jesus or any other religious symbel so dont pretend to be,very poor choreography yet again for him,hes got a reasonable voice but just very poor stylests.

  • Highlighted

    Pick up the phones and vote is being said alot for Little Mix which either means producers just want to seal it or worryingly for them they aren’t getting the votes right now.

  • Highlighted

    After the pick up the phones and vote cries I’m more inclined to back Marvus now at 7/2. Sounded like they were begging for Little Mix votes and I wouldn’t want to touch them at 1.3 on Betfair.

  • abs

    y does Kelly always pretend she’s crying???? 🙂

    • sam

      because shes a FAKE person,me thinks.

    • Lux Lisbon

      The most annoyingly insincere person I’ve had the misfortune to set my eyes upon.

      • sam

        lux,dont worry shes already been given her 1 way ticket back to texas and her pasport will be taken away when shes back in the states,so we wont have to endure her FAKENESS any more,i think she may well think twice before returning,theres alot of people in the uk who dont like her now that did before she went on this show.

  • CS

    That was a lot of pimping for LM – “pick up the phone” said again and again and then all that stuff with their mums and supporters. There’s certainly no question of who the producers’ favourite to win is!

  • Pauline

    Marcus is on now. Oh dear!

  • Lux Lisbon

    Silent Night? If only.

  • Curtis

    Incredible amount of pimping for Little Mix. Is this closer than I think?

  • Little Mix have certainly had plenty of help so far, either they need it or they are just making sure and launching their single.

    I think they’ve found the solution to the problem of multiple outside broadcasts for groups; don’t do them. Instead, get the mayor of the soloist’s home on, and spend lots of time talking about why people from XX should vote for YY, it suggests everyone else shouldn’t.

  • shoulders

    Am I right in thinking with vote fixing rows, they wouldn’t be able to say they really need your votes, if they were ahead, ( they would need to say the same about Marcus to keep it fair), if after the show when the figures are released if it shows little mix in the lead, that would have meant they were deceiving peole to make them vote and spend more when it was not necessary, for this reason they must be behind or at least its very close

  • shoulders

    Marcus on top of the world back image in Cannonball, hope so!!!!

  • Highlighted

    One of my fave songs brutally murdered by Marcus. Type John Adams into YouTube. His audition was miles better than that earlier this year.

  • Nicky

    Didn’t think Cannonball would suit Marcus, but he managed to turn it into something different that did suit. Well done Good Ship (can’t believe he ‘woooooed’ in it though).

    • Highlighted

      Exactly why he murdered it. Singing that in uptempo destroyed the song for me but proves he knows he has little ability to sing a ballad all the way through.

  • Kate

    A lot of red and black on screen right now!

  • mark

    What to make of all the comments Marcus has receieved/

    His VTs are as usual deffo more powerful than that of Little Mixs – plus in the LM one it mentions again how they didnt know each other before and were solo artists buit were chucked together

    — isnt that meant to be a HUGE negative?

    Combine that with the possibility that LM votes arent as high as expected – Tulisa didnt look too happy when introducing them almost as if she thought it was game over? Secodly I know people cheer at anything at these live shows bhut the cheers for Marcus seemed greater/

  • CS

    Can’t help but feel that Cannonball would be much better suited to Devlin’s style….!

  • mark

    The ‘go on to big things’ does that not possibly mean a sly comment to try and minimise votes as in ‘they will do well and dont need votes’?

  • Zoe

    Everything is being thrown a Little M

  • Ben Cook

    Marcus has just won purely thanks to doing a better version of Cannonball I reckon

  • mark

    bahahahahahaha ‘we’re doing this for our mums’?

    why say something like that such nonsense

    doing it for your mums..i dont see what it is/how that statement’s valid!

  • taichou

    i got a feeling that Devlin just stitched up the whole x factor LOL:))) first they got Coldplay there finaly! BUT! they will not duet with anybody expect Devlin well SHE’S OUT! Second winners song cannonball? well i expect XF expected Devlin to sing it!?:)) good girl!

  • Zoe

    Everything is being thrown a Little Mix to win, hope it happens

  • LM terrible and MC not much better. Really dreadful low quality stuff. MC worth a small interest @ 7/2 betfair in the circumstances.

  • sam

    i was hopeing that these guys may well of got a second duet tonight with some real recording artists but sadly no,just goes to show what the power of a very well respected artist like cold play can have over this show in the decision they made.
    but going on this WINNERS song i think i suited marcus better but the muffins did ok,at least they did not “BEAT BOX”it.

  • What an awful song to pick for them. Did you notice Dermot twice announced that Little Mix were singing ‘the winners song’ and right at the end ‘they are all relying on your votes’ meant to be for all finalists but only makes sense for Little Mix.

    • mark

      Thats what I was saying earlier – makes me wonder if they aren;t home and safe as everyone is assuming ignore the odds on betfair and try and go purely on performance/comments and everythig else – seen plenty of odds on favs turned over at the line

  • BoomBoom

    The show is really throwing the kitchen sink at LM – Tulisa’s comments after song one make you wonder if it’s worked.

    I certainly wouldn’t be as confident as the market is…

  • mark

    going off the winners song.marcuss was more emotion had my wife crying..
    judges still begging for votes for little mix.are they behind marcuss in the votes.why beg for votes if they are in the lead!!!!!looks very much marcuss has won..

  • Lux Lisbon

    Coldplay: the musical equivalent to The Emperor’s New Clothes.

    Sorry, not having it.

  • Chatterbox5200

    Given everything that has been said about this series, how ironic will it be if Coldplay finish their set with the line…

    “And I will try to fix you”

  • Nicky

    survation: LM 52%, MC 48%

  • Curtis

    Well done to Little Mix, well done to anyone who got them at 66 or even 75. What an unbelievable result!

  • taichou

    yay buying new cellphone and going to Italy for a new year! aiight Pete going to get some more red:)

  • Lux Lisbon

    Fix! After three months, is this what we are left with?

    As usual, the country rewards mediocrity.

    (Lux blows a raspberry) Thhhrrrrp!

    • marinamau

      The problem was to choose from current mediocrity, old fashioned mediocrity, shouty mediocrity, urban mediocrity or indi mediocrity.

    • sam

      lux,dont be so down hearted,think we all(obversly not marcus or lm supporters)are all peeved with this years bucket of bildge water but at least you/we can look fwd to janets album some time late next year when her syco contract expires and she can go do her own thing,i to am awaiting its release.

  • I spent the whole show with my finger on the ‘Lay’ button. Glad I believed my own evidence and resisted the temptation to click! Wouldn’t suprise me if it was mighty close given the desperate plugs in the show…and the pink shirt.

  • Highlighted

    Well done to all the winners of their bets aswel as LM. Look forward to see how the votes looked week on week.

  • sam

    well a least we will have a year off of this next year when the shows not renewed,but to all who made a nice wedge this year congrats,and a least its all over now and we can go do something else.
    i wish the lucky ones good luck in their future,its a cut throat industry they about to get in to so hope they got their heads screwd on

    • Highlighted

      Is it not on next year?

      • sam

        its all a bit unclear at the moment,even simon cowell seems to be fed up with it all it might be all wishfull thinking on by behalf but i wont be surprised if they dont have a year off and try to get the bad stigma of this year forgoten before they bring it back.

        • Highlighted

          I think if they are to pull the plug, they will go ahead with 2012 bu announce shortly that they will have a break after the 2012 show because applications and such for next year are already in.

  • Simon "le chat"

    Well done Pete and everyone else who were on LM at long odds.
    No complaint from me- LM had the better songs this evening, the pimp slots and having finished the stroner they were wrothy winners on the night.
    Thanks again to Daniel, Andrew and all the contributors on this site – it’s been a fabulous (and profitable) ride.

    See you at BFT!

  • Curtis

    Daily Star sounds accurate again!

  • Lux Lisbon

    That’s it, I’m slinking into the night.

    Thank you, Daniel for such a wonderful site, opening my eyes as to what was going on under my very eyes, and for allowing me to contribute and tweak a few noses.

    To Pauline and annemarie, keep flying the Janet flag, and we will have a street party when her debut single gets to no.1

    I’ll be back next year to ruffle a few feathers – it’s been fun.

    PS Anyway, how about that? Janet top of the votes for ***FOUR*** weeks, and runner-up in the other.

    I rest my case, y’onor.

    So long, folks.

  • Chatterbox5200

    So it turns out that JANET topped the public vote for the first 4 weeks of voting. Marcus was never top of the voting. Wasn’t it the 5th week of voting when the de-ramping of JANET started?

    Also, it was revealed on ITV2 that both Louis and Kelly picked JANET (at the boot camp stage) as the winner.

  • R

    Gary picked Frankie. Tulisa picked No Vibe.

    • Highlighted

      Hahahahaha they seriously picked them as their potential winners? What a LOL. Shows at the beginning who producers do try to push though. Frankie the charming male (hardly that in the end), Nu Vibe the good looking young boy band (not that either), Janet the sweetheart from Ireland (yes she is a sweetheart, but not the type they thought).

  • CS

    Where was the parade of X Factor weirdos that they normally do on final night? Just a snippet of Goldie and that was it! 🙁

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