X Factor 2011 Week 7 Elimination: Lily bashing

The theme for Saturday’s live show is movie week. The main feature in the elimination market is Misha B. It’s hardly surprising she dominates the market. Accused of being a bully in week 3, she survived the sing-off in week 4, bounced through week 5, only to be back in the bottom two in week 6. Does a trilogy of sing-offs beckon?

As Kitty showed, a lack of popularity with the audience is not conducive to a second sympathy bounce, especially at this later stage of the competition. We have occasionally compared Misha B to Rachel Hylton, who was also in the bottom two at the exact same points, and having survived bottom place in week 6, also finished a long way last in week 7 to finally leave.

The omens don’t look good for Misha then, though at 7/4 this is already factored into her price. If there’s anything in her favour, it’s that producers have done everything they can for her since the bullygate affair. She’s a marketable product, the question is whether having to continually save her in the sing-off will further damage an already-damaged brand.

Nonetheless, it’s worth looking through the field to see if there’s any value to be had from someone she may still be able to beat.

Second favourite to go in bookmakers’ lists is former favourite Janet Devlin, who has had a torrid time over the last four weeks. Despite the barrage of negative comments from the judges and highly variable performances, she has managed to escape the bottom two. This may be due to the Ulster teen’s regional base and/or her core support built up during the early shows.

Either way, her ability to avoid the dangerzone has been the subject of heated debate on Sofabet before and after we suggested that she was still a contender to win the crown. Quite what exactly is going on with the negativity the show has thrown at her, including from her own mentor Kelly Rowland, remains a matter of speculation. In the circumstances, we’re not tempted by the 4/1 given she has managed to stay out of the sing-off so far despite her critics.

Criag Colton also makes little appeal at 5/1 in the elimination market, despite the sense that he may be hovering just above the dangerzone. As we stressed during the week, producers have made it clear they are doing everything they can for him as their preferred contestant in the boys category, which indicates a fall into the bottom two would likely see him saved in any sing-off.

The only act we think likely to be saved over him in that situation would be Little Mix, given the efforts that producers are making to ensure Tulisa has a group in the final. There is a gap in the market for a girlband, as the judges frequently remind us, and Little Mix could easily become the biggest cash cow among this year’s contestants. With the promise of a performance to showcase their vocals that suggests they will get further pimping this week, it seems safe to assume they won’t be going home.

This leaves us with the two acts that head the win market at double-digit prices to go. This is a big week to gauge producers’ intentions for Marcus Collins. They did their best to stop the smiley Liverpudlian flying too high after his latest performance by criticising it as a carbon copy of the previous one. If he comes out styled like Little Richard again and the trombones start playing, it will further hamper his chances of going all the way. However, producers have two further weeks before the final if they do want to knock him out before then, and they may well need it, given his momentum going into week 6.

This leaves us with the exceptional case of Amelia Lily. After she was parachuted back into the contest last week, it was interesting to watch the programme tread a fine line between triumphalism and embarrassment at her re-introduction. As the need for suspense dictated, her unveiling and performance was left till the end of the show and came with the requisite pimp slot staging: a platform and the curtain of fiery rain that is only used for big moments. It was a big story and required a big production.

The judges were going to do nothing but praise her – having won the vote to return, the night belonged to her, after all – but their words were fascinatingly double-edged. Louis said, “I want you to go far in this competition.” Well, she already has, and not in the fairest of ways, which Tulisa reminded us of when saying, “You’ve come in at this point in the competition…at the same level as everybody else.” The suggestion being that she was no better. Gary Barlow explained “The British public love a comeback.” Telling the viewers what they like is not actually a vote-winning tactic.

We discussed this final point and more in our review piece of last weekend’s events. We haven’t changed our thinking on anything we said there, including the fact that, like Misha, Amelia is talented enough but hard to warm to.

If we were producing the show, we would do our level best to dampen Amelia Lily’s chances of winning the competition, given her almost free pass from week 1 to week 6. The prospect would only damage the franchise. There’s also the possibility that she’s fishing for votes in the same waters as programme-makers’ plan A, Little Mix. Therefore, we are expecting the sound of brakes being applied and gears crunching into reverse compared to her treatment last week.

If they give Amelia Lily something as unsuitable as her week 1 production of ‘Billie Jean’, her current elimination price could look very big indeed. Even if it’s not as horrific as that, we think she’s likely to suffer compared to many of her opponents, notably Little Mix and Craig, but also elimination favourite Misha B.

And if she is in the bottom two against Misha, judges have a ready-made excuse to get rid of her: “Yes, Misha’s been in the bottom two before, but she’s been putting her survival on the line week-in, week-out.”

The concern is that after last week’s pimping and praise, it may take more than one week to dampen Amelia Lily’s support to get her into the bottom two. Equally, however, last week’s support could prove very brittle, especially compared to her rivals who have had weeks to build up their fanbases during the live shows.

In the comments immediately after Sunday’s show, Chris O pointed out that Amelia had been priced up at 14/1. That has gone, as has the 12/1 we flagged in Monday’s review post, when we said we thought any double-figure price looked juicy. We still think that, especially given that – as Rob commented – Amelia has not noticeably been hogging the headlines this week.

There is one double-figure price left – Amelia Lily is 10/1 to be eliminated with Boylesports. While we wouldn’t be surprised if it takes this week to soften up Amelia before dropping her into the bottom two next week – and there is always the possibility that we may have misjudged producers’ intentions entirely – in a six-runner field, we’re willing to risk small stakes on it.

What do you think? Is the obvious choice of Misha B the right one at the prices, or is she worth taking on with someone else, and do you agree that programme-makers will be out to de-gild the Lily? Do let us know below.

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86 comments to X Factor 2011 Week 7 Elimination: Lily bashing

  • Dug

    There is a precedent for a latecomer winning – albeit a slightly tenuous link. David Sneddon won Fame Academy despite not being in the original line-up. Not only that, he was one of three contestants that could be voted in to the final place in the competition and lost out to Sinead. Only when another singer became ill did David appear. This was much earlier in the competition than Amelia and Fame Academy is a very different show from the X Factor but my point is that it has happened before. Not that I consider it at all likely in this scenario but I wanted to mention it as nobody has so far.

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    Amelia will not win.
    she has a hardness and a sterness about her and the Teesside accent is pretty dreadful to those who are not used to hearing it.
    She looks 17 going on 30 and appears as hard as nails even if she isn’t.
    There is strong support for her in the north east and elsewhere Isuspect because she should never have been excluded from the original three, but there we have it- she has not a patch on JANET’s originality.
    AMELIA is not original enough- she is a club/wedding/apprecaition-like singer albeit it a good one.
    I could see her on the West End Stage but not in the charts.
    JANET I could see in the charts but not on the West End.

    JANET to be top girl at 6/4 is a really good bet and helped myself to some this afternoon,

    Anyhow I am straying off subject a little.
    I believe the bottom two will be MISHA and CRAIG and MISHA to go.

    • Dug

      Re: Janet’s ‘originality’, take a quick look at positions 11, 12, 13, 17 and 34 in the link below (that’s one whole eighth of the top 40 popular music chart). If you size that up against Amelia’s comparisons, only in position 15 (and possibly a little of 13) then you can see which is the more saturated market. Taste aside, I do wish people would calm down on referring to Janet as ‘unique’ and ‘original’ when it’s categorically inaccurate.


      • Dug

        Amelia – meant to say 15 with a little 12, not 13

      • Dug

        And that is of course meant in the best humour, Monsieur Le Chat

      • Rob

        i don’t care if she’s unique or not as long as i make a profit. but i take your point about fitting into a market. there has been no marketable singer with an irish accent in recent times, so uniqueness could be claimed on that point alone. plus we are not in possession of all the facts. we have been told that she is a musician and can write her own songs – we have no idea if she is any good at either… so it’s probably too early to judge her on uniqueness. but she appears to have more potential for that label than the others.

        • Dug

          I have to firmly disagree that Janet has more potential to be unique. I stand by my point that she is very much on trend and reflects what is ALREADY very popular at the moment. Little Mix reflect a gaping hole in the market and four vocally talented young girls with an R’n’B edge are arguably more unusual in this context. What people seem to mean when they call Janet unique is actually quirky or against the grain of cheery pop. I might add that as individuals, at least one or two of Little Mix are far stronger than Devlin – Perrie in particular. It is for this reason that I feel we can go as far as to call them Plan A – even if that plan doesn’t necessarily mean top spot. One point though, is that Little Mix are one act who would not suffer by losing in the way that others (for example Amelia becoming a singing candle). I still feel that producers would be hard pushed to get them that far but I have high hopes for Little Mix’s performance tomorrow. If it reflects the obvious potential shown in their scratch performances on Xtra Factor and gets properly pimped, I would envisage a brief spike to bookies favourite before the dust settles and they return to third place by midweek. I reckon eventual 2nd place.

          • Dug

            Meant to say suffer by winning in reference to Amelia (or Misha – not that she has a chance)

          • Dug

            Little Mix

            is my guess now.

          • Rob

            i also agree that littlemix are possibly plan a. they certainly want them to be successful. over janet i’m not going to argue over semantics. as i’ve said on numerous occasions i don’t like to let personal opinion come into my betting and i’d hate the discussions on here to turn into something from digitalspy. as well as my main bet on janet, i have a largish ew on littlemix and some cover on marcus, so i’m hoping you are right about littlemix and wrong about janet.

        • Dug

          Agreed, I certainly don’t mean to bicker. But if I sound personal, it’s only because I’m trying to put myself in producers’ shoes looking at the music market. I moan about people heralding Janet as some unique icon because I think that programme makers will be aware that she could make a great winner and then a non-very-profitable product. Girls Aloud are still the most high-profile hit-scorers of any TV music contest this side of the Atlantic and JLS and 1D have also emerged as extremely profitable output. I think Little Mix would struggle to break the rule that a group never wins but they’ve been going steady for a surprisingly long time and, unlike with other acts, there’s still a feeling that they haven’t hit a peak. I guess we shall see tonight!

  • Oscar Diggs

    Amelia cannot win. This tells you all you need to know about who’s going to be covered in glitter dust come final night…

    20:15 when the show begins – this frame appears for a split second before we are shown highlights from the auditions – did anyone else notice this? It’s the Little Mix set, with the girls on stage – no judges in sight – and production crew visible front stage giving some kind of direction – the audience are there too (in case that’s not immediately obvious from the picture quality).

    51 minutes later Little Mix take to the stage with judges seated and the show in full flow.

    The VT did show us a problematic rehearsal, we know there was a last minute song change – could it really be that a primetime Saturday TV schedule was delayed to give the girls last minute preparation to ensure they got it right on the night – this would certainly support the theory that they are Plan A, in fact if this is the case then all bets are off – they must be Plan A++++

    • Oscar Diggs

      …this contradicts one of my earlier posts from today, but conspiracy theories are so much fun!

      • Daniel

        Talking of conspiracy theories Oscar, I notice that Amelia now features prominently in the latest edit of the X Factor M&S advert. No doubt that’s the point – to get people talking about who is getting which line of the song. Amelia has taken Kitty’s place in the ad, just as she came in and Kitty left the show last week. Showbusiness – it’s ruthless. 🙂

    • Andrew

      I’d be amazed, Oscar. How could they have kept it from leaking out? Presumably there were a lot of people in the audience with watches on who will have noticed they were supposed to have started broadcasting. What incentive would they all have to keep schtum?

      Seems much more likely they were playing a clip of rehearsals from earlier.

  • Andrew

    Dear Sofabet commenters,

    In case anyone saw some comments posted earlier by a chap called Stephen and is wondering where they went, we moderated them as he started to become rude and abusive in his interactions with other commenters.

    (Initial replies of yours to Stephen were also deleted in the process, Noisy and Pete D – many apologies about that).

    It’s the first time we’ve ever felt the need to do this, and it’s not very pleasant, but it made us appreciate all the more how wonderfully civilised a place for discussion this comments section has become, and how much we appreciate and value it.

    Thank you all for your understanding and continued good humour! 🙂

    Andrew and Daniel

    • Boki

      I noticed the number of comments is steadily growing and I agree with Rob that the discussions here shouldn’t resemble to a forum ones. I’m doing my best to behave here (although few times caught myself in a spamming mode) simply because this place is a rare oasis of, as you call it, civilised discussion and I would like it to stay that way.

      Back to the topic, I’m not sure if Amelia will vanish so quickly. Good thing about your theories is consistency but lot of things are based on a British sense of fair play which I could only take for granted (since not British). My doubts are if they for example switched horses and try to push Amelia to the final – they are serving that story about poor her which has to catch-up with all contestants and their already established fanbases. That combined with a felling of unfair elimination in the 1st live show (I think we all agreed that she was removed because of Janet and not because she was the worst girl) may be enough for the public to ignore the fact she came back. It depends on the producers as always but it can still go both ways imo…

    • Dug

      I got a bit heated earlier – please don’t delete me! I believe the forum style comment was in relation to my continued lack of faith in Janet Devlin and as I mentioned before, I am only so fervent in my denial of her talents because I think that producers will be noticing similar things and I want to get to the bottom of the ‘unique’ mystery. I have Twitter and blogspot for my personal rants and they are motivated quite differently to my comments on here. I also love being part of these discussions and if I get my claws in then that’s only because there are no other places where you can engage in a decent interrogation of the show and glean any sense out of the wildly oscillating odds on offer. Thanks everyone for some great debates. I have to say I am intrigued about this Stephen character and slightly sad to have missed it but I appreciate the fact that we have a great discussion going here and I wouldn’t want that spoilt. Yeah, cheers everyone!

      • Andrew

        We would never dream of deleting you, Dug! 🙂 Always eagerly anticipate your wit and erudition (as I hope you can tell by how frequently we steal quotes for the main posts).

  • Matt

    I reckon Misha will probably go although I do reckon producers would like her to be fourth, so who knows? If she’s bottom two again would they save her? I suspect if she doesn’t get any sympathy bounce she’ll go. If she avoids bottom two I’d bet on her being saved in a sing off the following week.

    On the Amelia subject I am quite convinced the producers won’t want her to win and for me she goes next week. It’ll be interesting to see how she’s presented this week though.

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    I know this belongs on the “Liverpool” thread but the more I consider the options the more I believe CRAIG is hanging on in there by a thread – kept in to balance the scales while the producers whittle down the girls.
    If you think about it Frankie going so soon after the four testerones of the RISK leaves a surplus of females and so he has to be protected- at least for now.

    MARCUS is infinitely better than CRAIG and that is before his smile and obvious versitility and appeal. MARCUS absolutely nailed on for the final. Nailed on.

    Its too late now to take any worthy odds on him being best boy (8/13-15) or to win (7/2 tops) because JANET is a threat to win ahead of him.
    For me the only certainty is that AMELIA and LITTLE MIX are fishing from the same pool and one must fall soon – maybe AMELIA like the landlord says- but dont count on it.

    So let’s take a pace back and look at this now as a singing competition and look at who has the most talent.
    MISHA has the most talent of all the girls, followed by JANET. True.
    MARCUS has the more talent of the boys but CRAIG must survive a little longer.

    CRAIG and LITTLE MIX to be in the bottom 2 because MISHA, AMELIA and JANET have more talent as a single act than LITTLE MIX

    My conclusion:
    CRAIG to survive on judges vote
    LITTLE MIX to go.
    Tulisa on skid row, where she probably belongs in this series for her pliability to the producers and generally false praise- does she think we are all tone deaf when she praises unworhty acts to the skies and then adds “honestly”?
    I’ve seen more sincerity in the artificial excitement of a local DJ on commercial radio.

    • Oscar Diggs

      Little Mix VT likely to feature a story of Jade off to the doctors with suspected tonsillitis = sympathy.

      Little Mix rumoured to be singing this – stripped back – “all about the vocal” = judges high praise for doing something different.

      Little Mix = not bottom 2 (nailed on).

      • Rob

        wow that en vogue track takes me back a bit. still sounds good though. well if LM can nail it then they deserve to go through as it’s a bit of test. wish i could get a hint of amelia lily’s song. it being upbeat suggests she may struggle as billie jean exposed her weaknesses.

  • Oscar Diggs

    These links to latest twitter photos can provide some useful ‘pre-saturday’ clues for anyone looking to catch the early worm.

    Misha B’s rehearsal pic is particularly interesting – trouble in camp, or plea for sympathy votes?

    Misha B
    Janet Devlin
    Amelia Lily
    Little Mix
    Marcus Collins
    Craig Colton

  • Andrew

    A new Yougov poll, conducted Nov 15-16


    Quick thoughts –

    – Craig doing better than expected, Janet worse (note NI/Ireland is not polled, but still)

    – sample size of 684 means margin of error around +/- 4%, so there is basically nothing in it, especially with 24% saying “none/don’t know”

    – the last yougov poll would not have helped predict the following weekend’s bottom two. With the margins so tight, there is much scope for ramping and de-ramping on the night.

    • tpfkar

      The poll is of viewers, not voters. No U18s, 32 19-24s. So I’d be hesitant about getting too hung up on the details.

      The stat that does stand out is the 7% who expect Janet to win; if your theory is right about them striving to avoid it looking like Janet is walking it, then mission accomplished.

    • Rob

      it looks encouraging for people like me who have money on JD, although as usual i’m may be just making incorrect observations. but here they are:
      1. it doesn’t factor in any NI/RoI votes
      2. the sample is too small to have captured her hardcore fan vote. and probably most of the people answering the questions won’t bother to vote anyway
      3. amelia lily doesn’t look to have had a game changing impact
      4. it doesn’t include under 18s
      5. she is very strong in the 18-24 demographic
      6. there is only 7% covering all contestants.

      like the last poll i’m also very sceptical of the scottish result. it’s massively skewed towards marcus collins. i can’t see where he’d appeal to scotttish voters so disproportionally?
      overall though it’s a tiny sample and should be considered with extreme caution imo.

  • Simon "le chat"

    And the good ship MARCUS sails on..

  • Dan

    This is certainly going to be an interesting week to see who is in the bottom two. All the very obvious contestants have gone now just leaving Misha, having been in there twice before and pretty certain to be again this week. Unless there is an obvious assassination of someone then we will see who has perhaps been trailing all these weeks along with her (Amelia Lily excepted of course). I know that a lot of people suspect Craig but the pimping of Little Mix could also point to trouble for them.
    If Amelia Lily can get past this week without being in the bottom two, then I can see her placing fourth unless the relentless Janet assassination continues…They’ll super pimp her in the coming shows but I’m not sure if she has the following that the more established contestants have to get her into the final three.

  • tpfkar

    MISHA is the most damaged brand, having suffered bullygate, and then been reinvented in the last couple of weeks. Hard to see her bouncing out of the bottom 2, however she may be saved against Marcus or Amelia.

    But I’m not sure I can see either of those two in the bottom 2, so it’s Little Mix, Janet or Craig for the final bottom 2 slot. It’s not impossible the producers might realise they’re flogging a dead horse with Craig, but they can at least try with a late slot and decent song.

  • shoulders

    Well done on the moderation sofabet. I am really enjoying the maturity of the commenter’s on this site. Unlike sites like digital spy the comments are kept constructive. I’m not going to bet this weekend having lost £100 on Janet to go, but before placing my bet I had the same doubt where the judges had mentioned amongst their criticism that they could see her selling albums and she surely needs to finish higher up to do that. For me your site has made X Factor compulsive viewing. Instead of now watching it looking for who has performed the best on the night, I am now watching to it as if it is a drama series where you’re trying to figure out the plot and see which of the commenter’s saw it right. This week is going to be telling, will the producers continue in their comments to Marcus or will he be back on form, will Criag continue to get excellent praise or is it time to bring him down a peg or two. With Janet she’s in the opposite position to Craig and will this continue. Amelia and Micha will the comments start to change for them. It’s a certainty that Little Mix will continue in the same vain, but what I’ve come to understand from reading this site and watching the show is that it is also a certainty that it doesn’t matter how well the contestants sing this weekend, the comments for the judges handed to them from the intentions of the producers will have already been worked out how they perform on the lives will be immaterial.

  • malcolm

    I can only see little Mix being saved if they dip into the bottom 2, though i’m hoping they are safer than that, they would add a whole lot of balance to the final, so see them being pimped as much as possible to get there.

    I’m hopeful that Craig will join Misha in the bottom 2. Craig has made some ‘worried’ comments the last few weeks prior to the result, I think (?) he knows he’s vulnerable …. if either of those two go i have got it covered.

    Because I’m hoping for them in the bottom 2, i put a couple of bets on the first act called safe this week, the odds seemed quite good for that; and by process of elimination there’s not a huge choice left. They won’t call Janet first, and Marcus doesn’t need any help, so i’m hoping its either Amelia @5 or Little Mix @4.5

    ….I’d noticed that the forum here was creeping towards personal comments which took away from the overall objectivity of this great site, so glad you are aware and prepared to take action to preserve the general tone.

  • sam

    i think this week money needs to be placed on 1 of the girls,which one and why?,well for starters no one like a 1 horse race when it comes to judges so with kelly still haveing 3 acts left and only 6 acts left then to make it more open 1 of them needs to go,dont think amelia will be in bottom 2 cus although shes just come back in shes not had enough time for judges and production to assess if money can be made from her post shows so she wont go and they have gone out of their way to get her back in this show ,now that just leaves misha and janet?,janet has always had the fan base but also the likability factor from the voter/pubic view but that i think has dwindeled in the past week or so,shes not the little cute quiet shy girl she was when she was first shown on the show and i think people are realising this somewhat,shes not as she first was and to jo public/and others this just aint british,to people you either real or fake so if they think shes been putting on an act for all these weeks then the suport for her will stop.Now for misha,shes never had what janet has and thats a hard core fan base and thats allways going to be a problem,also shes have major contrevercy regarding the so called bullying,i dont believe in all that but the seed was planted a long time ago in peoples minds and thing like that never go away even if they are untrue,also shes dont 2 stints in the bottom 2 and thats never a winning place to be,she has the voice and no one can deny her of that but lacks that one thing people want thats real likability.
    so for me its gunna be misha and janet bottom 2 with misha a good bet to go even though all the judges lv her voice shes had to many off screen stuff going on for her to go all the way and i think the producers will know this some what.

    • Nicky

      Initially, I’d imagined that they’d want Amelia to get through this week to prevent the farce of her return appearing as just that. Her performance last week of ‘The Show Must Go On’, sorry, ‘Show Must Go On’ (grrrr) was good but certainly not ‘sensational’.

      I backed her to go in the first show as I thought she was dreadful. Kelly made the right choice in my opinion. Amelia couldn’t get the top notes in ‘Billy Jean’, a song that doesn’t have a particularly demanding range. Her limited range limits the songs she can sing. A demanding song would show this up. Also, although middle England might like powerful voices, I don’t think they appreciate being shouted at from start to finish (Ruth Lorenzo). Kelly, being American, doesn’t seem to realise this.

      If Little Mix are currently mid pack in the voting and Amelia Shouty is seen to be hijacking their natural fanbase, I suppose they might want rid asap.

    • Pete D

      Just had a look at your Kelly/Janet link (photo) on their supposed ‘kiss ‘n’ make-up’ story. Looks to me like Mummy taking a typical rebellious daughter kicking and screaming to Tesco on a hated shopping trip for groceries and getting snared at the door by the family portrait photographer guy.

      KELLY (Through a gritted teeth painted on smile)…”Now for just once in your damned life Janet, can you at least try and smile for the camera please honey” ?

      She still doesn’t look a very happy Bunny to me. It speaks volumes.

  • Nicky

    Interesting YouGov poll. I feel the older voters (25+) eventually determine the outcome. Mostly, all we have to go on is polls on sites like Digital Spy and YouTube hits. The voters who don’t get involved with online X Factor stuff and who just watch the show and vote for who they like, must constitute a large percentage.

    A youth fanbase can get an act through the early weeks, but only take them so far, like One Direction, Cher Lloyd etc. As the show progresses, more adults start voting and this audience becomes the most influential. It’s easy to dismiss the oldies as grannies, housewives etc, but they are also the most likely to have a copious CD collection, be discerning and vote with their ears. A young, devoted fanbase can see an act through a bad week though as they’ll vote no matter what, whereas the grown ups will only vote for a good performance. This makes it easier for the show to get rid of a Johnny than a Frankie.

    Signability might be a major consideration for the producers, but the public don’t necessarily vote on this basis (Michelle McManus). I imagine that the X Factor audience is comprised largely of people switching over after Strictly and the same people who watch BGT. This can obviously create a battle of wills between the show and the viewers. The viewers mostly seem to win. Syco might manage to get their preferred acts to the final, but eventually a Jai Edwards or a Joe McKelderry wins.

    The grown ups like good voices and singing. The majority taste will always be middle of the road, but anyone who can get people’s toes tapping, or sing a ballad and move people emotionally is in a good position. It seems to me that pretty voices do rather well. Of course, you have to be likeable and modest also.

    The only contestants that fit the mould if the above is correct, are, imo, Craig, Marcus and possibly Janet if she ups her game. But I feel at this stage, anyone is in danger if they do a bad performance.

  • Geoff

    Sounds like marcus is singing ghostbusters.
    More evidence craig is the producers fav?

  • Nicky

    I’m going to nail my colours to the mast:

    Craig has the best voice in the competition!

    I’ve backed him pre-show so am aware I’m probably biased, but have been encouraged over the weeks by how well he does on YouTube. However, I’ve also joined the ‘good ship Marcus’ (regrettable not at 14-1)and like them both. I’ve got a bit on LM and Janet, but either one of the boys winning will give me the best yeild! I lost money on Frankie to be bottom two but managed to recoup my losses and turn a profit in week four by backing Johnny to be bottom two and doing a value bet on The Risk (at 43-1) to go, enabling me to diversify from just having Craig to win. This was only possible by treating the Johnny for bottom two bet (8-1) as a banker, and I’d like to thank the team for that tip. I think it was probably the nap of the season so far! Also, I probably wouldn’t have picked Marcus myself, but have no regrets and still think he’s a contender if he isn’t nobbled.

    I know it makes dramatic sense for each of the remaining judges to have an act in the final, but just how unlikely do you feel it is for both Likely Lads to make the final?

    • Simon "le happy chat"

      Hi Nicky
      I dont think Craig does have the best voice in the competition – I believe MISHA B does. JANET has the most distinctive voice but it is tedious after all these weeks- MARCUS has the most versitile voice and is by far and away the best performer,
      Will it be neough to carry him to the final?
      I believe so, but I dont think both Liverpool lads can make it there.
      I just hope its MARCUS who does.
      He has the talent, appeal and form but this is a strange competition where the judges dont always tell it how it is and some of the public are unable to see this.
      We’ll see.

  • Oscar Diggs

    I’m at risk of falling into Digital Spy territory here, but this is vital information for anyone on this betting sight looking make early bets for this weeks show.

    But is Misha B really a certainty to be in the bottom two? The producers have already pulled out all of the stops to get her to Week Seven, to such an extent that there could even be a backlash against Misha who looks to be getting favourable treatment. However, they look set to go one step further on Saturday night as her VT is set to feature Misha breaking down in the company of her mentor Kelly over their troubled upbringings, which could win Misha a handful more votes.

    The self-published photo from her twitter (see my earlier post) backs this up – prepare for a sickeningly over the top attempt to gain sympathy votes tonight, looks like they want to keep her in a bit longer.

    Good sources indicate Craig will sing Goldfinger (I can see him nailing it in his James Bond tux) and Marcus to do Higher and Higher from Ghostbusters 2 (a Jackie Wilson cover, not a huge departure from the last 2 weeks then!)

    Little Mix will be safe with what they have planned (see earlier), Janet HAS the votes – so by process of elimination we are looking at any combination of Amelia, Misha and Marcus for bottom 2.

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    MARCUS just tweeted “I aint afraid of no ghost” which at first sight looks like “Ghostbusters” but I reckon it could be the theme to “Ghost” which if it is will be an ideal vehicle to show off MARCUS’s vocal talents- he’s got a brilliant range, right up to the top notes at the end.
    If he sings “Unchained melody” in the pimp slot good for us MARCUS backers methinks!

    • Oscar Diggs

      I agree that would be a magnificent scenario, however, I think singing Johnny’s recent ‘Unchained Melody’ sing-off song is unlikely.

      It’s Ghostbusters 2 (Ray Parker Jnr would be suicidal).

      • CHatterbox5200

        Fingers crossed they don’t give Marcus the Ghostbusters theme (images of Jedward running round the stage attempting to sing this spring to mind). If this is the song he is given, it would surely indicate:
        a) they want to get rid of him
        b) they want to push him into the bottom two to benefit from a sympathy bounce next week.
        Not sure which would be most likely, as they obviously see Craig as the preferred boy.

    • Pete D

      Simon and Oscar.
      Although my feet are fairly well planted in the LM camp now for my biggest priced rewards, I am still still waving a flag for our MARCUS (as I have some nice forecasts on the both).

      However, I still hope he doesn’t get the Ghostbuster’s theme. Although he would no doubt make it fun and entertaining, it goes right into the realms of stale ‘cheese’. I am nervous for him tonight.

      Great En Vogue link above too Oscar for LITTLE MIX (thanks, a treat for mine ears). I am excited for these girls tonight, because if this IS the song (or similar) they have the vocal capability to totally smash it.
      It will also raise the whole game in the competition. AMELIA WHO ?

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    Amelia has been given a pretty rubbish and lesser known Aretha Franklin song and it doesnt look good for her. If she gets an early slot she is going to be in difficulty.
    I googled the song “faith” and it is most unmemorable.
    Landlord, you might be right about her being in the bottom two- let’s see how she performs it – I’m sure it will be all fire and brimstone with this girl but the lack of subtelty might not strike the right chord with the audience.

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    Sorry, that should read the song title “Think”.
    She’s being set up of she gets an early slot.

    • Rob

      i’d disagree that it’s a bad choice if she can deliver it. i like this song more than ‘respect’ – needs a big ptoduction though. given that both marcus and amelia have up tempo songs it suggests to me that there is a good chance that one is going first and the other in the middle.

  • Tim B

    I disagree completely, that song will be great for Amelia. It’s hardly an unknown Aretha song – it’s one of her most famous! I’d be amazed if anyone hadn’t heard that song, especially the “Freedoooom” part which she is sure to nail.

  • Tim B

    Also, remember she sang “Piece of My Heart” for her audition and this song is in the same style.

  • sam

    who do you think is gunna get the death slot tonight?i think either marcus or misha first on or even janet if they want her out but dought it.

    • Pete D

      They should give the death slot to the singing candle CRAIG (and light the wick on top of his head at the start of the song).
      If it is anything like the cheap ‘pound shop’ tea lights it will have burned out by the end of the song.

  • Simon "le happy chat"

    Give it to CRAIG and tell the truth about how average he is.

  • annie

    danwooton just tweeted marcus is closing the show tonight….

  • Dug

    Not that it’s likely to mean much but I have it on good authority that Craig Colton will be backed by a live, all-female string band tonight. A musician friend of mine was booked for it but got cancelled when they decided it needed to be all female. This could be wrong.

  • Daniel

    Official songlist has appeared:
    Little Mix – Don’t Let Go, from Set It Off
    Marcus Collins – Higher And Higher, from Ghostbusters II
    Misha B – I Have Nothing, from The Bodyguard
    Janet Devlin – Kiss Me, from She’s All That
    Amelia Lily – Think, from Bridget Jones
    Craig Colton – License To Kill, from James Bond: License To Kill

    • sam

      think i gunna change me plans going on that list i see craig getting death slot,this is gunna be a big production song just the way they like to start the show so craig say bye bye

    • Boki

      Is there anyone else thinking that Marcus got far worst song and that he might be in trouble ?

      • sam

        yep,yet another 50s style cover i think zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz,now thats predictable!! but is he gunna wear dam dikky again,seriously wonder if garry barlow thinks he is from the 50s and hes traveled back in time.

        • Boki

          Not only outdated again but an average song comparing to others imo (at least the Ghostbusters version). I’m confused as he reportedly is closing the show, WITH THIS !?
          So the possibilites are:
          1) MC will be great again and praised by judges in the pimp slot – not likely
          2) They plan to use pimp slot again for bringing MC down (like Misha) – also not likely for them to waste chance for LM pimp
          3) danwooton is tweeting rubbish
          4) something else I don’t realise at the moment

  • Man, they really want Misha B to win this don’t they…

    Had a look at the pre-show chatter to see what it says and on this basis had a cheeky fiver on the three looking most likely to go out.


  • Rob

    well my predictions were rubbish for who gets what. craig’s going to have to excellent tonight for what is one of the dullest bond numbers…

    • taichou

      ye but Marcus again got “retro” song, i mean they will probably attack him to decrease his votes

      • Rob

        janet should be ok with hers. if she goes out after this one she only has herself to blame as it should suit her style perfectly.

      • Chatterbox5200

        Didn’t Jackie Wilson also record “Higher & Higher”? I’m not sure it’s the version that was used in Ghostbusters II, but puts him right in the line of fire for the “predictable/same as before” line.

  • shoulders

    the judges may dis Macus again for being same old, but Higher and Higher is one of my all time favs, he’s gonna smash it, hes going nowhere this week and will still have the balard in the back bin for when it counts

  • shoulders

    Janets song sounds nothing special although i think it will suit her voice with the big tunes on the show i cant see her improving

  • sam

    read some reports amelia was haveing trouble with her song in practice,and little mix had issues with 1 of them having a cold or somthing so if they dont pull if off think they could be in a bit of trouble,marcus for me though looks like hes gunna have it tough,yet another 50s style little richard sort of track,and they said janet was prodictable and boring?

  • “Higher And Higher” was originally recorded by Jackie Wilson in 1967. This is not the version used in the Ghoastbusters film though. That was by Howard Huntsburry (who actually played JW in another movie)

  • Pete D



    You didn’t let me down girls. Follow THAT Janet and Amelia

  • Chris O

    Managed to scramble some 4/1 Littlemix for the entire show after about 15 seconds of singing.

    That was absolutely breathtaking, every bit the En Vogue original.

    As for Amelia Lily, I’m loving my 14/1 that she goes tomorrow. Middle draw, boring song, forgettable vocals. Selling it off now for a free 7/1 bet.

    Marcus, Littlemix and Janet final?

  • EM

    It was Spot Goes For a Walk tonight

    Craig has been binned from their plans. He now comes from Kirkby not Liverpool and has a weak local campaign (see Sophie and Kitty assassination)

    Janet they want to stay around.

    Amelia Lilly can stick around for a bit

    Mischa they want to keep like hell. They seem to be trying to Leona her.

    Little Mix were good and had everything going for them.

    Marcus now comes from Liverpool and got a gospel choir and has Rebecca approval.

    Any of the first three could end up bottom 2 Janet would be saved in a sing off Craig would be saved over Amelia.

  • shoulders

    After Marcus, Little Mix and Micha, is anyone going to remember to vote for Craig Janet and Amelia???

  • tom21

    I think that settles the Scouse argument! In the words of another commenter, the good ship Marcus sails on 🙂

  • sam

    got the death slot right for a change,so craig and misha for me bottom 2,place your money!really hated the vt on misha ,i mean really dont go down the sad, weep weep ,cry cry ,boo bloody hoo get me the symphaty vote route its really desperate on the production to do this,and craig was as dull as ditch water as always,but he will make a good £50 a night as a wedding singer

  • Boki

    I’m glad Marcus sails and they finally decided in his favor, was scared when I saw the song title. Bottom 2 candidates for me are Craig, Amelia and Misha.

    • Rob

      i don’t want to rain on marcus’s parade because from a betting point of view i’d like him to do well but is it not possible that this is an engineered attempt to maneuvre craig into the bottom 2 for a sympathy bounce next week when running positions will be reversed? or is this taking deviousness too far?

  • Jake

    Perhaps, but I think it is more likely that they were just trying to save Misha.

    Judging from Craig’s VT: old boring parents, Kirkby rather then Liverpool etc.

    -compared to Marcus’s chat with the Liverpool champion, and runner up, Rebecca Ferguson as well as the VT justifying his new style and last weeks mishap.

    I think Craig may no longer be above Marcus in the producers eyes.

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