X Factor 2011: Who Will Replace Frankie Cocozza And How Far Will They Get?

After a hectic 48 hours in the X Factor which has seen Frankie Cocozza sent packing and the public ridiculously invited to reinstate one of the four acts rejected in the first week’s big twist, the four judges faced a press conference today like embattled government ministers or Premiership managers.

The press conference confirmed that phone lines for Amelia Lily, Jonjo Kerr, 2 Shoes and James Michael will open at 4pm Thursday and close during the Saturday show. At the time of writing, only 2 Shoes had not yet taken to Twitter to start begging for votes, Amelia Lily looking the most pathetically desperate.

It’s time to take stock. Who do producers want back? Who will they get? What are the returning act’s prospects? What was that Frankie Cocozza stuff all about? And how annoyed should punters be? Let’s take these questions in turn.

1. Who do producers want back?

This is the first ever public vote in X Factor which has not been immediately preceded by performances, so we have no possibility to dissect the usual tactics of running order, song choice, VTs, judges’ comments etc. We are deep into the realms of guessland.

Noisy wonders: “Maybe the producers have given up on Janet as plan A for being too controlling (and surprisingly poor!) and are trying to switch to Amelia.” It’s certainly a possibility. However, Amelia also seems the act most likely to take votes away from Little Mix, who have seemed in the last two weeks to be the act the show is keenest to push. Or maybe Little Mix were Plan B, they are not flying, and so Amelia is now Plan C?

James Michael? They literally had little time for him during the audition shows. 2 Shoes? The widely-assumed reason for their departure instead of the soon-to-be-nobbled Nu Vibe, as depicted by Fix Factor Comics, is now five weeks further advanced. Jonjo Kerr? Not unless they have completely taken leave of their senses.

Given their lack of ability to use the usual tactics, how much can producers influence the vote anyway? We are guessing they probably have some capacity to give some acts more help than others to get media coverage and make best use of social media. Or maybe they simply want Amelia Lily and are as confident as the betting suggests that this will happen.

2. Who will they get?

Amelia Lily is a red hot favourite at 1/4 with James Michael at 7/1, then 2 Shoes 20/1 and Jonjo Kerr a 33/1 shot. How do we approach this market? With no public performance preceding the vote, essentially what’s happened here is that we’ve stripped out one of the factors we normally have to consider after a Saturday show and we’re left with the question of an act’s base – the ones who we assume are so invested in an act, they will vote for them regardless.

As Jack says, Amelia Lily “had masses of support prior to her unlucky elimination. In most polls I saw, she was equaling or beating Janet”. She is also ahead on Twitter followers by some margin. But is it possible some of her erstwhile fans might have cooled their interest in the meantime, especially given the heavy pimping of Little Mix? Might there be a risk of complacency if her fans assume she’s home and hosed?

Boys also usually get more votes than girls, and James Michael has the advantage that he would become the only straight (as far as we know) male in the competition. We would usually say that his regional base of Liverpool would likely trump that of Amelia’s Middlesbrough. However, as Tim asks, with Scousers already having Craig and Marcus to get behind, might that make them less motivated to pick up the phones and get James back in?

Having tipped 2 Shoes each-way before the week 1 twist did for them, we are obviously hoping that they are the beneficiaries of the week 6 twist. It doesn’t seem impossible – we detect plenty of goodwill towards them, and Essex is a regional base currently catered for only by Little Mix’s Jesy, who is from Romford. But perhaps our capacity for objective judgement is clouded by the sudden hope that our bets at fancy prices might unexpectedly return from the dead.

As for Jonjo, he was so unutterably appalling in his one appearance on the X Factor stage that we can’t imagine there will be enough masochists out there who want to hear him again. Although the fact that vote proceeds are going to Help For Heroes shouldn’t harm Jonjo, the formerly much speculated about “soldier vote” would have to be powerful indeed to propel him back into the frame.

In short, while it certainly seems that Amelia is the most likely returnee, we aren’t tempted by her current odds.

3. What are the returning act’s prospects?

Ronnie asks a good question: “if the public have to vote a contestant back in on Thursday or Friday, will they really pick up the phone to vote for them again on Saturday or Sunday?” For this week, a lot probably depends on running order. It makes obvious dramatic and financial sense to put the returning act on last.

That way, Dermot can invite votes for the four while the other six acts are performing, with cuts to shots of the four acts waiting nervously backstage – it would maximise phone vote revenue, and keep people tuned in till the end of the show to find out who gets to perform. Today’s press conference said the votes would close within the first hour of Saturday’s show, so we are assuming a pimp slot for the returning act is indeed likely.

It’s a moot question how well producers will want the returning act to do. If we were them, we wouldn’t want the returning act to be eliminated this weekend, as the whole exercise would then look even more pointless than it now does. We would also rather not have to save the returning act from the bottom two this weekend – as Rob says this might “compound the negativity” of the returning act being seen not to deserve to be there. This all points to the pimp slot, too.

But then, if we were producers we also wouldn’t want the returning act to win the show. It’s one thing to grab some mid-series headlines through a cheap stunt, but we’d be looking to try to salvage some credibility by the time of the final. Our best guess, then, is that the returning act may be given enough help to get through this week, then dragged back to earth with a view to losing them in week 7 or 8.

4. What was that Frankie Cocozza stuff all about?

There were so many interesting thoughts raised in the comments section to our “Frankie Cocozza: What’s Going On?” article, it seems a shame not to revisit them.

One theory we can surely discount is that raised by Simon le chat, that Frankie was ditched as he was “beginning to attract a swell of “anti-Syco” votes that threatened to sink the show”. We saw last year with Wagner’s assassination that the show has means of getting rid of its protest vote acts – means which it conspicuously failed to deploy against Frankie last Saturday night.

It remains hard to make much sense of the explanation that Frankie’s exit on Tuesday was simply because he broke one of the X Factor’s “golden rules”. Producers seemed perfectly comfortable with continuing to showcase Frankie’s antics right up to the Sunday show, even having Dermot ask him several times in a matey, nudge-nudge way about how little sleep he’d had the previous night. Take a look at that list of 10 “golden rules”, then re-watch Frankie’s week 3 VT and week 4 VT and add up the number of those rules programme-makers were all too happy to depict him apparently flouting.

Why the change of heart? As tpfkar says, “It doesn’t make any sense to spend 2 months (over!) building Frankie up as a rock bad boy, just to kick him out when he crosses the line. And what line? He was featured partying and drinking, as much against the rules as what he’s alleged to have done… Hard to escape the conclusion that the show could have kept him if they wanted. But until today it really did look like they wanted him to stay. So why the about turn when it causes so many problems with the show format?”

Dug speculates with his usual fine turn of phrase that “any 18-year-old, no matter how cocky, could fold under the pressure of public hatred and constant booing. I reckon he asked to leave and the producers decided to make a story out of it… If you were an X-factor producer, which headline would you prefer? EXPLOITED TEEN BUCKLES UNDER PRESSURE or MAN-SLAG FRANKIE’S DRUG-FUELLED SEX-BINGE?”

Rob reckons “there was probably a crisis meeting and it was decided that FC was actually damaging ratings rather than helping them. imo there is ‘good’ controversy e.g. wagner and ‘bad’ controversy where programmes fall into disrepute. i think xfactor crossed the line this time and are desperately trying to row backwards before they go over the waterfall.”

Again, though, given Frankie’s portrayal up till now, why did the crisis apparently hit only after the Sunday night show? There is a deliciously speculative theory that it may have something to do with M&S executives getting into work on Monday and re-watching their glossy Christmas ad, with its powdery white effect as Frankie sings. As lolhart says, “The X-Factor’s main concern will always be that lucrative advertising revenue.” Could it be that this wasn’t just a mess, this was an M&S mess?

Or do we run with perhaps the simplest explanation of all, suggested by Mark Lawson’s article in The Guardian, noting that “the consequence of Cowell Inc’s fit of showbiz morality was to put The X Factor back on the front page of the Sun and other tabloids, a position it once claimed by right but which so far has been more elusive during this current dull run”.

Amelia Lily started being backed on Betfair several days before Frankie’s departure, which suggests this twist might have been in the offing. Given which, did the show simply decide that firing Frankie would be a headline-grabbing way to tee it up?

5. How annoyed should punters be?

Sofabet commenters are united in their disdain for what programme-makers have done to this year’s show – it’s “a shambles” (Euan), “so wrong” (annie), “a joke” (Donald), a “debacle” (Jack), “a mess” (Dan), a “total farce” (Nicky), “ludicrous” (fiveleaves). We couldn’t agree more.

However, we can’t agree with Mark the bookie basher that punters should feel “cheated”. Nicky is right to say that this is like “allowing a new horse to join the Grand National on the second circuit” – but then, why is it so inconceivable that this should happen? Because the managers of Aintree racecourse know that their business model depends on betting. The X Factor’s doesn’t. If they want to screw with their product, that’s their prerogative. However annoying, it’s a risk punters have to take.

So we do think punters have a right to be annoyed, but only because we enjoy betting on the show and the way it’s going there isn’t going to be a show to bet on for many more years.

We can only echo the words of Euan: “there is a way out, my fees are fairly reasonable.” Sofabet commenters regularly come up with winning ideas: we loved the way Shoulders suggested for getting out of the Frankie fix (have the next two weeks votes count to the next elimination, and donate all this week’s vote revenue to the poppy appeal), and Dug has some wise thoughts on how to minimise the fallout from this latest decision. We reckon a 2012 X Factor produced by Sofabet commenters would get the franchise back on the rails. How about it, Simon?

As always, please share your thoughts and theories below.

54 comments to X Factor 2011: Who Will Replace Frankie Cocozza And How Far Will They Get?

  • Boki

    If the voting is closed during the Saturday show that means all 4 candidates will be in standby for the announcment, also meaning they will have to practice the songs this week just in case they will be chosen to perform. This sucks big time, Amelia is so hot favorite so what will be the motivation of the rest to go through all of this. Desperate Amelia is the only one who will properly prepare for the show imo…

  • dan12

    If voting closes during the show, who’s going to be surprised if all 4 end up performing? With a 90 minute running time, 7 acts would be spreading it a bit thin, even for X factor.

    Anyone fancy a punt on whether the production team will put the Sheila’s Wheels girls in a car again?

  • EM

    Marvelous words as always. And an X Factor run by Sofabet would be wonderfully lucrative.

    I wouldn’t be so sure they don’t want the returning contestent winning for three reasons. Firstly they don’t care who wins really, just that the top 4 are marketable so if it was the soldier chap they’d manage him out but Amelia Lilly yes please. Secondly what a journey and storyline they could run, I thought it was over, this is my chance to prove the judges wrong, I’m in touching distance of a dream I’d given up on. X factor needs these stories this year.

    Thirdly and finally I don’t think they’ve a bloody clue what they’re doing, they’re managing from day to day right now.

    Finally it’s interesting you say Amelia’s odds started falling this week as if there was some info that she’d be back. I bet her to win with Betfair before the live shows and noticed that the others licked out all went to 1000-1 but hers never lengthened that much. I always looked at that and thought that someone somewhere must feel she’ll come back in a twist and go on to win it.

  • taichou

    yeah Rob thats what i was about to say:) i think Devlin is ripping those votes each sunday and they are not in control of it..

  • Tim B

    Is anyone else feeling a Misha B elimination this weekend?

    Assuming Amelia wins the vote, all attention will be on her so the other girls will suffer. Janet is probably safe but Misha B could be in trouble – late slot last week AND coming down from a sympathy bounce.

    Astonishingly only two boys left and eight females in total, so both Craig and Marcus should be safe.

    Will Kitty be given the penultimate slot in an attempt to keep her safe? Lady Gaga is her job so she’s bound to nail it. And as a big Kitty fan I hope she’s the one given ‘Poker Face’. And of course there’s a big question of IF she’ll bounce a second time. Will there be part of an article assessing her chances, Daniel and Andrew?

    • Rob

      first thoughts on elimination are that kitty will get another sympathy bounce and with a gaga number may do enough to keep out of bottom 2.
      amelia lily comes in as a semi unknown quantity but i’ve already said why i don’t think she’ll do as well as expected, but with a pimp slot and ramping may just avoid bottom 2.
      misha b has a fan base even if there are many who dislike her. i don’t think they will be as complacent again as to let her fall to far down the pecking order.
      for little mix, marcus and craig could all be surprise bottom 2’s as they have recent ramping, song choices and running orders – that may make their fans complacent. i’m looking for a bad song and poor running for any of those 3.
      i suspect if the machinations are to reduce janet’s vote they will go all out to do it again this week to take advantage of the distraction of the new contestant.

      • taichou

        i wonder why they are trying to reduce it… i mean they cant control her? or she’s just not good enough?

        • taichou

          hahaha guys dunno if its useful info, its Devlin’s birthday this Saturday 😀 so i assume she’s safe 😀

          • Rob

            yes i did know it was her b’day but had forgotten. i think the problem they have with her is that all attempts to control her have hit a brick wall… i don’t think x factor and devlin were ever a good match. she has pretensions of being an ‘artist’ and they want someone who can be moulded. just getting her hair dyed was a compromise too far for some of her fans on youtube lol.
            another theory and remember this is just idle speculation is that the ratings drop is being blamed on the show being perceived as a one horse race and therefore they feel they need to bring devlin back to the pack to boost the ratings. perhaps fanciful but i like to speculate

    • Andrew

      Of course, Tim! 🙂 As has been said on another thread, the counterargument against assuming Kitty will nail Lady Gaga week is that the bar is set so much higher for her.

  • Tim

    Hi guys, sorry I had to change my name on here to Tim B as another Tim has appeared – I am the original Tim 😀

  • http://anlytk.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/whos-coming-back/

    So in line with the odds, it looks like Amelia is out in front to come back.

  • Simon "le chat""

    I believe Amelia Lilley is a SHOE IN to come through the return vote- she is full of colour, youth and fashion unlike Janet who is rock steady middle class establishment.
    can she stay in the show?
    Yep. She’s more marketable than MISHA and more vote appealing thaan LittleMix, and the north east base will always trump Liverpools -remember McIlderry and Cole herelf.

    Still quite happy with the good ship MARCUS – he’s the best all rounder with the fabulous smile and without the slightest whiff of controversy. You must remember that the majoprity of viewers are the good old middle ages/blue rinse middle class Bristish public who do regard the show as a talent contest and will put through the most entertaining artist and there’s onlt MARCUS and JANET in it at the moment – AMELIA might upset the applecart if she makes a return but we’ll cross that bridge if we come to it – I agree with Daniel that odds of 1/4 are not at all appealing.

    • Andrew

      Hi Simon, not sure the Geordies will be voting for a Smoggie – don’t forget two of the Little Mix lasses are from McElderry’s hometown of South Shields. Given which, I suspect Amelia’s regional vote if she makes it back may not stretch too far north of Hartlepool.

      • Rob

        i’m sure this is right, but tbh i don’t really buy regionality in england. it has some impact but not the same as ireland, scotland and wales who have strong national identities. for inspance geordieland is not a country and has amorphous boundaries. i wouldn’t even expect north tyneside to vote for south tyneside (i’m from the north east btw).

        • Andrew

          Hi Rob, me too! 🙂 Geordieland is almost a country. Joking aside, I completely agree with you but still if I was going to be English in one of these competitions I’d rather be from, say, Liverpool or South Shields than High Wycombe or Tufnell Park. I wonder if the XF have access to regional breakdowns of phone votes?

  • Rob

    good news for marcus fans…

    daily mail readers appear to love marcus and hate janet… with a circulation of over 2 million that’s got to count for something?

    lol who’d have thought it? the readers of the paper that supported the nazis love the black, gay hairdresser.

    anyway i’m putting a few more quid on marcus to protect my bet on janet. imo he is more likely (and likeable) than amelia lily.

    • bunnyman

      Had a quick look at the Mail and can’t see anything, please can you elaborate Rob?

      • Rob

        it was on the mailonline website and it was a review of the weekend show but i can’t find it now. anyway in the comments section everytime marcus was praised or janet dissed there was a hundred up arrows, everytime janet was praised there was a hundred down arrows.

        • bunnyman

          Wow – thanks for that Rob. Then again she was unusually crap last week. Interesting to see how her seemingly brittle confidence responds to that and the likely return of Amelia.

  • shoulders

    Hi Andrew and Daniel, totally agree that the show couldn’t care at all about us guys betting on it, to be fair I’d be amazed if they don’t read this forum and if they do they’ll probably have a great deal of satisfaction reading these comments if they think they have thrown a spanner in the works of punters who thought they had them sussed out. If the X Factor was interested in betting they’d open a book where each week they wouldn’t announce what the theme was, then they’d get punters to place bets instead, going by the last few weeks it would be pot luck if anyone guessed right. 
    I’m actually enjoying the show, I’ve bet on Marcus to win and if he does it will pay for a long haul holiday, I was starting to feel confident I’d be getting my suitcase out of the loft soon, now I’m wondering if this change could mean his week on week rise is about to peeter out, i hope not!! but whatever it’s making it exciting, in answer to the question on  who might be going in, I think key to knowing who the producers want will be who’s pushed in the tabloids on Saturday, the show will have had Thursday and Friday to watch the voting, as they don’t have the luxury of song choice, singing order or judges comments to steer the publics choice their public manipulation will come in the form of the stories they push in Saturdays papers, and as the votes will also go into the first hour of the show key will also be how favourable any VT’s filmed of the hopefuls over the last couple of days are

  • Rob

    interesting quote from kelly in the press conference about amelia lily:

    “It’s plain to see why you should vote for her. Great voice, great personality, great understanding of being a TEAM PLAYER when it comes to being an artist. She’s a strong, strong contender.”

    my emphasis

  • Gav

    Amelia will definitely make it through. She has more talent in her little finger than the other 3 acts. She also has a good chance of making the final at least. I believed she had the most potential going into the live shows and was disappointed to see her leave albeit she was poor but that wasn’t helped by the poor song choice or terrible styling!

    For me when she sang ET by Katy Perry at the judge’s houses that blew me away and is the most impressive I have seen an act perform this year.

    I can see this story where they make her the comeback act and turn it all around and with the obvious comparisons with Christina Aguilera I would not at all be surprised to see her sing ‘Fighter’ at some point. That song is absolutely made for her now! Maybe we could even see her sing that with Christina in the final!

  • Donald

    Whoever joins on Saturday be it second lap or not although love the analogy they still have to jump the fences to win and they are big fences really so a watching brief until it settles down.

    It looks like being Amelia but hanging out with Frankie hardly a good start on a public vote once in. Could cause a bit of a backlash and will find it hard to win over fans who have already picked their favourite. No value at the odds for coming back as said above.

    Let the storm blow over and then back to basics and work from there.

    Elimination is where it all starts again.

  • Curtis

    The conclusion of this blog is absolutely right. The X Factor would indeed see a return to form under the watchful eye of sofabet commentators. I think the producers have done an amazing job this year of screwing the series up by trying to be too clever. They also pushed the wrong acts early on. Frankie was simply too terrible for people to buy into him. Kitty has not created controversy in the same way as Katie Waissel because Kitty just isn’t such a divisive character. And Janet was meant to be their star singer, their winner, but they’ve given her questionable song choices questionable VTs, and questionable judges comments. It’s made the whole thing rather underwhelming.

    It’s incredibly frustrating to watch the X Factor going down like this, not simply as a punter, but also as a viewer, because X Factor for years has been wonderful leave your brain at the door Saturday night entertainment. It would be a shame to see it go.

  • Nicky

    I understand that the audience niche consisting of punters isn’t the focus of the X Factor model, but still, this sort of ‘twist’ would make a mockery of any supposed competition, even a tiddly winks tournament. The truth is, however much we all like to bitch about X Factor, the stunts they pull usually keep us interested: Frankie’s antics and dismal singing, Johnny camping it up, double eliminations etc. But this latest development leaves me cold. I don’t see it as exciting or intriguing at all, mostly because the evictees aren’t much cop. It would surely have been far more fun, and provided a better narrative, to have Johnny return. I’ll get over it!

    I think the analysis of the Frankie debacle is spot on: they created a monster; they got headlines and drama; the monster went bad; Offcom were displeased; they looked at their creation and saw it wasn’t good; they plotted to slay the beast before it self destructed and then sought to use the situation to their advantage.

    I think the X Factor would be better off going back to basics and keeping it simple. Stop all the manipulation and control tactics, do the best for all the contestants and let a genuine competition ensue. A major betting edge would be lost though!

  • Nicky

    Amelia’s level of Twitter followers isn’t really that remarkable – around the same number as Misha – so not necessarily enough on it’s own to ensure success. Once the core voters, (middle England, mums, old fogies and Britain’s Got Talent watchers etc) start voting (presuming they’re interested), Amelia’s return isn’t necessarily a forgone conclusion. The opening of the phone lines before Saturday could be a way of boosting Amelia’s chances, since the grown ups won’t vote until the show and only the young, social media savvy crowd are likely to vote beforehand.

    Apparently Marcus, who has twice as many Twitter followers as Amelia, is urging his fans to vote for Jonjo. Not because he represents the least threat, of course, but to stop him having to go back to Afghanistan. Either Marcus really is this sweet, or he knows how to play on his cuteness to his advantage! I would PMSL if this were successful 🙂


    • Curtis

      I agree that it isn’t a forgone conclusion that Amelia will go through, but I do think her amount of followers is pretty impressive considering she only had 1 live show compared to Misha B’s 5. The important thing is that she has more followers by far than the other 3 vying to come back.

      While I’m sure Marcus’ endorsement of Jonjo will have some small effect on Jonjo’s votes, followers aren’t sheep. They won’t do something simply because Marcus says so, and to be honest, Jonjo doesn’t even appeal to Marcus’ fanbase (does Jonjo actually appeal to anyone?)

      Personally I’m hoping for 2 Shoes to come back, but that seems pretty unlikely.

      • Nicky

        I agree Jonjo’s return is unlikely, but it would serve them right! I suppose Amelia Shouty will win the vote, but like you, I think it would be totes amaze if 2 Shoes came back.

  • tpfkar

    Gah! Been away for a couple of days and a lousy pair to pick. Quickly:

    1 – Amelia shoe-in to be back, the 1.25 on her winning is better value than the same odds were for Frankie Bottom 2. If she isn’t winning the vote by 6pm Saturday, they will find a way of promoting her.

    2 – Agree that it will be pimp slot then out either the next week or one after.

    3 – I share the grumbles, not least because everything was looking good in the win market for me before a new credible contestant turns up.

    4 – May well be Misha B out this week; due an early slot, coming down from a sympathy bounce, and they don’t need 3 girls in the competition at this stage. And is Queen or Lady G her thing?

    5 – That Kelly video you linked to was hilarious, sums up the way this year’s show has been run.

    6 – Be careful what you wish for. If Sofabet took over next year’s show, I guess we’d find out just how hard it is to co-ordinate a stack of egos, public expectation, multi-media communications (TV, phone vote, twitter, online, newspapers etc.) This year’s producers have certainly made it look difficult; it probably is.

  • Rob

    When (notice i said ‘when’) amelia lily is voted back in i bet you a fiver she gets to sing ‘Don’t stop me now’ in the pimp slot.

  • Stephen

    I am very happy over this now as i had cosiderable amount of money on amelia to win the x factor outright and 2 days after i placed the bet she got knocked out by kelly and felt really hard done by even tho its unfair for any contestant to come back to join the show again she should of never left in the 1st place and after finding out the bookies are letting my orgingal bets stand i feel very happy indeed

    as they say

    the only danger i think to amelia actually winning this show now is marcus maybe he has peaked to early??

  • Tim

    Marcus has not peaked yet – they are yet to give him a ‘ballid’ !!!!

    Daniel/Andrew – Please could you give us a heads up as to roughly when the elmination article will be up? It varies between Friday and Saturday and I want to make sure I jump on the prices straight away like I did with Johnny last week! Thanks in advance.

    • Daniel

      Hi Tim, it will be up at about 5pm today, but do remember that most weeks we have adopted a wait-and-see approach. 8/1 Johnny to be one of two eliminees last week was just too good to pass up last Friday.

      • Rob

        marcus @30.0 next elimination looks great odds to me. was janet ever at 30.0 when she was favourite?

        • Tim B

          Why would they send Marcus home? As one of the two boys left in the competition, women (the main demographic of the show, surely) would be turning off IN THEIR DROVES.

          • Rob

            why would marcus be appealing to women? i know they like to have a gay male friend but i can’t see that translating into votes.

          • Jack

            Rob, the general consensus I’ve seen is that women still like and vote for Marcus, because he’s good-looking in spite of the fact that he’s gay.

          • Rob

            hi jack i don’t disagree, but i don’t think he’s going attract the armies of women voters in the same way as matt cardle for instance. i think marcus appeals to the demographic who turn up to be entertained on a saturday night and like someone who is humble with it i.e. the everyman. i think the everyman though is easily manipulated and fickle and just won’t bother if the performance is not up to par. marcus needs to keep up the good work or he’s as vunerable as everyone else.

  • bob

    In the early stages the elimination is more volatile. Marcus has more established fans now, there are more polls and indications that he is safe than when Janet was favourite. Also, Marcus is folowing on from being told he gave the performance of the series.

    • Rob

      it was a speculative suggestion more for a back to lay than a serious idea that he can leave. they only need to send him out 1st or second and say things like ‘well after last week that was a bit disappointing’ for the odds to plummet. also i still maintain there is less than gnats dick between this lot and therefore odds like with only 7 left have to be given some consideration.

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