All four judges shot Johnny Robinson down in the sing-off, but the programme makers had laid the groundwork. We had speculated after his storming performance of ‘I Believe in a Thing Called Love’ just how long producers would want him to continue. The answer was: only two weeks. They deflated the balloon very quickly indeed. As The Bitch Factor explained about last night’s show: “Because it’s the stage where these competitions start to have a John Sargeant memorial panic and the joke acts and fodderbots need to be put in their place, Johnny is on first.”
The need to ditch the ‘novelty’ contestants to retain a veneer of credibility was something we had written about last year with regards Wagner, Widdicombe and Waissel. We reckon Johnny possibly stormed the phone vote in week 3, so producers got to work immediately. First came the negative tabloid stories, then a retreat to dull normality with his ballad in week 4, followed by as tpfkar put it (with reference to what happened to the bongo-playing Brazilian last year), a clinical kill last night: “Johnny’s treatment tonight was a complete repeat of the Wagner treatment, even down to the dancing girls turning their back on him in the recap VT.”
So when Boki asked me last night who would win the Johnny / Kitty sing-off that came to pass, it seemed obvious that Johnny would go. It was another profitable Sunday night showdown for me then, but if you don’t like the idea of betting at 1.25, we do hope you took the 8-1 on Johnny to be one of the two eliminees we had recommended on Friday night. What I certainly didn’t predict was that The Risk would come bottom of the public vote, and thus leave the show automatically.
However, the treatment of The Risk was straight out of the Nu Vibe playbook, right down to Louis calling Charlie “the main man” (he used the same words in week 1 about Nu Vibe’s Ashford). Gary’s choice of phrase – “I’m waiting for the point that you all realise that Charlie is the lead singer” – seemed especially carefully calculated to imply that the other three were failing to know their place. The appearance of togetherness is vital for a group in this show, and this looked very much as if – in Matt’s words – “producers are hoping to generate acrimony in the group”.
Still, we thought that regional support (group member Andrew Merry is the only Scottish contestant left) would see the boys safe despite a third rather dull performance on the trot; it worked for Janet Devlin. We were going to explain in tomorrow’s review article that the Little Mix pimp slot indicated they had become the new Plan A among the groups, but to see the boyband leave this early after such a promising start was still a shock.
Frankie and Kitty live to fight another week, though the phrase “borrowed time” quickly comes to mind for both. What did you think of The Risk’s automatic elimination and Johnny’s assassination tonight? Do let us know below.
The elephant in the room – Frankie may not be seen by the best performer on this board, but he is doing enough to rick the audience.
I don’t see him winning but I do see him as surviving above Kitty (bottom 3 again), Misha (post-bounce) and Craig (just not a winner)
I even see him level with Janet if she doesn’t improve and then we are near the final zone. Everyone says he can’t sing – but vocal purity isn’t all – and my daughter says her friends all like it.
So quite happy with average odds of 160 on £25 stake – just not quite sure how to monetise it
Mark
PS I agree with you about Marcus – looking good and looking solid low risk performer
That was my first profitable week, I was on Johnny bottom 3, and then to go in the sing-off. Small stakes but up thanks to following sound advice here.
My position in the win market is suddenly looking very rosy as I had a substantial lay bet on The Risk. I’d expected to have to wait for the (semi) final for it to come in, but I’ve posted here repeatedly that I never believed in them as a group, and a couple of decent outings in the first live shows aside, they’d become a bit of a joke with all the chopping and changing. (Ashford, Andrew and Derry become the first people to be eliminated from one X-Factor series three times I think.)
I am in awe of how Andrew & Daniel spotted that Frankie’s VT/judges’ comments were positive and the show was trying to keep him; like most posters here it looked to me like he was on his way out. But you got it absolutely right, swimming against the tide – that is what makes sofabet unmissable at the moment.
You’ve detailed the fall of Jonny well, for me it’s been the big signs hanging over him saying “the journey’s over” that have stood out most. As soon as I heard he was tipped to do Eurovision I was on it.
I took the Risk to be bottom 3 too. I’m not convinced young girls vote in great numbers for X Factor. All the winners are acts your mum would like. Safe, non controversial, not dangerous looking, clean looking and just regular. For all the reasons that groups don’t win the show such as lack of regional identify and technical challenges then The Risk had that two fold with fall outs, member changes and well just not actually being very good.
Judging by the fallout tonight over Frankie staying I’d bet they’ll keep him in one more week if they can to keep the show being talked about. They obviously don’t care about Kitty but she may get sympathy, someone somewhere realised that Mischa is actually a talent and so they softened her look and gave her a region! Little Mix are being pushed to the max but they don’t have the talent to win, Janet is off the boil in a Vickers style (as I said after her first audition!) she doesn’t look happy at all and the boys are getting equal treatment.
Long odds but Janet bottom two sounds fun this far out.
Don’t joke with Janet bot2, I backed her to win at a worst possible moment 🙂
I jumped on The Risk at 20/1 on hills and then shoved the winnings onto Jonny to be eliminated at the sing off so for once I got it right!
This is my first comment on here, and let me just say kudos to everyone who inputs on this website, it is a really great read.
I had Craig from the beginning, took Johnny @8/1 as you recommended and took the Risk @12/1 when I saw the songlist yesterday evening. Thanks Dan for recommendations and advices (I’m taking only the ones I agree with your reasoning btw). So nice profit but not much comparing to 1.2x from tonight 🙂
Nobody expected Risk last but I said that each week at least one big surprise so no exception this week. Poor poor song seems to matter more than the performance – I found them not so bad to end up last. Frankie seems to have an amount of votes each week no matter what (Janet probably also) which is not the case for the rest who depend on songs, treatment, slot etc. so that’s keeping him alive.
agree re Janet and Frankie, so I would be surprised to see them in bottom 2 next week tbh
I suspect next week we may see someone like Craig depart?
Week 6 Kitty gets her 2nd sympathy bounce??
Or Misha gets back down from her bounce? It’s becoming more and more difficult for me to predict before the show start but the obvious is not happening yet. I think I will skip next week pre-show betting (although I said that for this one but couldn’t help it lol).
Johnny’s exit nicely followed the first in the sing off rule. I was pleased that there seemed to be a commitment from the judges to vote on musical ability. Getting Louie to vote first helped avoid the possibility of it going to deadlock and maybe kitty going home instead…..
I noticed two other things tonight, the huge prominence given to little mix in the live song that opened the show, and also Craig and misha getting the best spots in the M&S advert.
Overreaction is the key here. As soon as The Risk became joint favourites with Janet for the win after their week 1 performance I layed them and after Johnny’s odds for a top 3 finish fell sharply post ”Thing Called Love” I layed him too. Who knew they would realise so quickly and simultaneously!! Good work every1, I’m impressed.
I said two weeks ago that it will be interesting to see how the producers treat Johnny in the coming weeks, as it will indicate how his voting was in week 3. I reckon he probably topped it, judging by the brutal assassination he received the last 2 weeks at the hands of the producers. To be honest, I thought Johnny to go was a near certainty tonight so naturally I backed it at those odds of 8-1 that you pointed out yesterday. I was sure he would be in the bottom 3 after his treatment last night, and that he wouldn’t be saved against anyone except POSSIBLY Frankie. The 8s were clearly good value though either way, and it’s worked out here.
The Risk being bottom of the vote was at first a surprise to me. I thought they had a chance of bottom 3, due to being utterly forgettable last night. However, they avoided the bottom 2 from the death slot last week with a worse performance, so I thought they’d be safe from automatic elimination. However, forgettable is often worse than downright bad, and they probably received sympathy votes due to the change in membership last week. However, I ultimately think that that change of membership was what killed them in the end, both with regards to the public vote, and with the support of the producers.
Frankie surviving is of course, ridiculous. You’d have to guess he got a sympathy vote. He basically admitted that he was rubbish, and due to the bizarre psychology that us Brits have, admitting you’re rubbish actually generates you votes. It doesn’t make sense to me, but like I say, it’s very British to respect those who are rubbish and know it. That’s fine, but the bizarre part is that we then vote for him because he’s done that, despite the fact that we’re voting for him to continue doing what he’s rubbish at! Still, to be honest, I find him so bad it’s funny each week, so I’m not too upset he’s still in the competition. More entertaining than The Risk.
Next week’s pimp slot is going to make for fascinating viewing, as I get the feeling that it’s going to contain the eventual winner of the show. The way I see it, they’re either going to chuck their considerable weight behind Marcus at this stage and give him the pimp slot that, given his positions in the running order thus far, he deserves. If they give him the grand pimping treatment next week, then I’d say that would put him in excellent stead to win the competition as he already has great momentum. Or they put Janet in the pimp slot and give her the comeback storyline that I have said before could propel her to victory (she’s also due a late slot in the running order). There is the possibility that they put Kitty or Frankie there in a desperate attempt to keep them in, but I’d be surprised. Frankie I think they’ve purposely avoided giving the pimp slot because ending the show with him would just be a bit rubbish. Maybe they’ll do it to Kitty, and if they do, you can almost guarantee that either Marcus or Janet will get the pimp the following week and then the same thing as I said before will apply.
I don’t think it’s uncommon for an act to safely survive a poor week, only to fall short in the votes seven days later. Misha survived bullygate but found herself in danger after an attempted salvation the week after. The Risk did terribly last week but failed tonight. I imagine that a weak performance or any hint of jeopardy sends the voters into a frenzy whereas a weak performance followed a week later by an AVERAGE performance is the real cause of danger. The voters need to feel inspired, even if it is by a bandy-legged, STD-ridden non-singer like Cocozza. Terrible is always better than boring.
well the standing ovation at 7/1 was worth a punt, but Sofabet deserves a standing ovation for this weeks performance. Well done to all.
Allot of happy people on here tonight including me. Johnny at 8/1+ was brilliant Daniel.
Few of us nailed top group which puts us well ahead now and those who laid The Risk job done also. I’m sure none of us really expected to be collecting so soon.
Nugget and Boki must be well happy and with Marcus almost in the back straight still on the bridle is some tipping.
Every weeks elimination spot on is not easily done so a standing ovation from me.
Malcolm right above re prominence given to Little Mix early doors I thought the same (and not from a biased point of view) Kelly talking them up against her own girls?
Roll on next week and again thanks.
I wasn’t surprised that The Risk were in the bottom 3. As I commented yesterday I felt the producers’ focus had shifted away from them judging by their VT and feedback. But I was surprised they came bottom of the public vote. I think their exit was a combination of the above, forgettable performance, lineup changes and even possibly Tulisa backlash from bully-gate. I don’t think the producers wanted them out at this stage. It just shows how unpredictable the double eliminations are.
Only small bets for me tonight, just Johnny to be bottom 3 @ 3s – and a special market had a few hundred on
I was surprised by the Risk being bottom of pv..hadn’t even considered them tbh
Not surprised by Frankie/Johnny, good shout on the 8/1 for johnny to be eliminate
I’m assuming next week Kitty gets her 2nd sympathy bounce, without knowing theme/songs I’d say Craig/Little mix at risk?
good articles and comments as ever
btw – i hope anyone who bet the special at corals gets it sorted out, hopefully someone took a screenshot-always worth doing with the special specials markets!
Next week’s theme is rumoured to be Lady Gaga.
OOOH yes now I remember, I remember reading here and someone saying how it would suit Kitty-gotta agree – Kitty should be NAILED on to be sage next week, – COMING off a b2 meaning sympathy bounce? plus the theme should suit her to a tee
Does anyone think that the prominence of Craig and Mischa in the M&S advert indicates the producer’s desire to see them in the final?
I doubt that M&S agency would have allowed the Xfactor producers that much say in the final cut of their ad or Syco for that matter.
Be very strange if they did. M&S PR / Legal bound to be conscious of issues relating to favouring contestants.
I’m surprised that M&S even allowed Misha on their advert considering her bullying past (and the fact that M&S are well known for selling school uniforms).
I am suprised M&S sell trousers to fit Craig 🙂
Nugget. I used to work at M&S and this is their secret. You see, they sell you yummy cakes and bikkies to get you fat (and that MARCUS can’t afford BTW) and then they are they only store around who can kit you out in XXXL pants (and duffle coats). Simples !
The Risk being bottom was a shock. But the fact that we had a shock was not, in itself, a shock – the “Week 5 shock” has been well documented in the past, with the likes of Lucie Jones and Aiden Grimshaw leaving the show in week 5 in previous years, to general surprise and with inferior acts left in the competition (Jedward and Katie/Wagner). So I was pretty much expecting a shock, and backed The Risk (as well as Janet and Craig) to be bottom – the former at 26/1. With all three of those acts, the combination of perceived safety, poor performances and early slots was too good to pass up.
From my lurking I know there’s a lot of love for Marcus on this site, and I echo those sentiments – I always saw him as underrated, and always saw it as a matter of when not if he would get down to single figures or even become the favourite – well, it’s happened. In truth, it still baffles me that he was so underrated for so long – he’s got everything Craig has and more (the exception being a size 40 waist). So my 18/1 on Marcus is now layed at around 3/1 and I await the final with excited curiosity.
Paddypower 6/4 Kitty next elim, now that’s a lay – 5/2 bf bit too big for me to lay
ayone got any views on next weeks elim, albeit vague because we dont know much re order/songs , but im thinking Kitty safe/Frankie is a huge ? and Little Mix safe — they wont want to see the only remaining band gone week after The 2nd to last remaining band..will they?
In which week do they stop the sing-off’s and revert solely to the public voting? I can imagine, depending on the theme/song choice, etc, that Kitty and/or Frankie may escape the bottom two. If they do, and someone like Craig/Janet is in the bottom two, the judges are likely to keep them in.
Too early to make a judgement just yet, but with all 3 boys left and only 1 Over 25’s / Group, it could mean the end of one of them. Craig is currently 25/1 with PaddyPower to be the next eliminated.
Another decent week for me
Got risk at 9-1 and johhny at 6 before the shows
I thought momentum was startin to shift with the groups and also thought that replacing members wouldnt go down well and it proved right.
On a bad side my large win bet on janet is not lookin good and im startin to think producers are against her now with the boring comments and bad running order I think shes far from plan a.
Well done on gettin on marcus at good odds daniel’ and everyone else that backed him. I still a bit confused who will go further him or craig I could see the winner of the liverpool battle taking the title
Spot on Daniel, wish I had followed you. I don’t think anyone could have predicted The Risk being bottom of the public vote, bottom 3 maybe but not bottom. I never had a bet today, so it was a nice suprise to find Littlemix being top group and turning into a winner much earlier than even I could have hoped for. It would have been even better had Corals paid out on “fireworks”.
The one thing I was sure of tonight was that Kitty would be safe, as soon as I heard next week was an Lady Gaga week there was a definate feeling that they wanted her there. Top class perfromances have been lacking this series and say what you want about Kitty, if theres one thing she can be relied on then its to perform Lady Gaga to the highest possible standards, its what she does for a living FFS. I reckon she will be safe next week, even though she has little chance of winning outright.
Is it just me or does Janet really look like she does not want to be there anymore. She might be some value to be next to go or bottom 2 next week. If she is to have any chance of winning this she needs to pick herself up and raise her game quickly. Is it just that she has been lavished so much praise and built up so much that she cannot handle a bad week and critisism??
Frankie is continuing to get the votes, probably a combination of teen girls and anti x factor people. I have a feeling the actual voting levels are quite low this year thanks to the low quality of finalists and some dire performances. This can only help Frankie.
I still don’t think Craig can win and may be out pretty soon so they can focus on the new golden boy Marcus. Marcus is good (by this years standards) but do the producers really want another male solo winner to try and promote?
Littlemix remain for me the most interesting and marketable of all the acts remaining and Misha the most talented and polished vocally I would not bet her at the current price unless she really continues to soften her image and make herself more likeable (I have Misha EW @20/1 which was my first bet this series).
I beleive Littlemix can certainly make the final 3 now and could possibly even win this.
I have a feeling that they may make a big deal about Kitty getting to ‘do’ Lady Gaga next week as it is her job, as sort of a ‘completed journey’. Then knock her down with comments such as “we expected more”, “Stars in their Eyes Gaga”, “no personality in there, we aren’t looking for an impersonator, we’re looking for a star”, etc etc. While Kitty is a decent performer, I can’t see what else the producers can get out of her now as she is clearly not that well liked overall. Where is the value in pushing her to get through another week?
Has anyone got any stats for previous series of
When someone is in the bottom 2 and survives how often they then face the bottom 2 again the week after they got sympathy bounce?
thanks! 🙂
I thought I read something on this site, but can’t find the article again?!?!
Hi Mark, we wrote an article on this last year after the second time that Katie survived the bottom two. She didn’t bounce that week, but she did – right up to second place – the week after her third sing-off survival.
Last night sharpened my thinking on Little Mix.
A double elimination at this stage meant they could control elimination without losing both runners in any categories due to judges “choice”. If they knew The Risk were vulnerable being near the bottom each week then pushing Little Mix as long as they can keeps some credibility for Tulisa a new judge they’d like to see do well.
For all the reasons stated before a group will struggle to win but bet on them pushing the girls hard until they can push no more. With the Sofabet guys there’s no way they can win but it will be fun watching them try.
Awesome call on the Frankie situation yesterday. I simply couldn’t believe he wasn’t bottom 3, astonishing. My principal bet was on Johhny B3 yesterday but I had a little on Frnakie and a Frankie/Johnny/Kitty B3 too which left me marginally down on the night (by about £4 so no drama!) I’m finding this year really difficult to call.
If only I’d followed my own logic re The Risk and had a small punt! Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but perhaps my argument logically extended from the producers trying to create acrimony in the group to the group are under performing in votes and ritual sacrifice was ongoing as I typed. To my mind, again speaking with hindsight, The Risk were being lined up to allow them to be voted out in a sing off and perhaps the producers now think they got lucky as ditching Johnny over Kitty was an easy call for judges to make.
I didnt see THE RISK going either but the form was there in the comments of LOUIS WALSH “you’re not a rcok star and you never will be” – it would generate a great deal of sympathy, particularly as WALSH is not well liked by many of the public ie who is this cretinous 60 year old telling a teenager he has no future?
If you look back to STEVE BERTENSTEIN winning the first series, you will recal he got there thanks to SAHRON OSBOURNE telling him he was a fraud.
Good ship MARCUS down to 5/2 – that was quick wasn’t it? Otherwise I dont read too much into the M and S advert- it was filmed weeks ago when MISHA and CRAIG were stronger stock than they are now.
Next to go has to be one of the boys.
CRAIG must be vulnerable, FRANKIE too.
Maybe JANET. We’ll see.
I had my most profitable week so far thanks to Daniel’s excellent tip for Johnny at 8/1! Also had a win for laying Misha B for bottom 3. Lost on Frankie first out. Was astonished to see him go through but, at the same time, was not too surprised to see The Risk in there.
Interesting week, very annoyingly I got greedy and only backed Johnny to go first, not just to go! Not too much harm done though after a good few weeks.
Very early to be thinking about next week, but I think Mischa and Janet are both in danger of going B2. The Kitty/Gaga week conundrum is fascinating – agree with Whyalwaysme that they might have they been trying to keep her in till this week, only to use it to knock her down…also there’s the possibility of complacency on behalf of her voters if she’s perceived/presented as having a big advantage…
it was a great call on frankie that’s for sure. i just couldn’t see all the negativity translating into votes but you guys read it perfectly. glad he was too short to take or i would have considered a nibble and lost.
next week very interesting now. i think little mix will have the kitchen sink thrown at them to get them to the final which may lead to more high profile casualties. a boy has to go soon as the show is too lopsided, but you also have to consider that misha could be ready to fall back in the bottom 2 if she follows the rachel hylton pattern. and will kitty get a sympathy bounce? and god knows whats going on with janet – do you guys have any ideas about her treatment as it has me flummoxed. a janet article would be useful?
Cheers, Rob – we do have one or two speculative thoughts about Janet, which are coming up soon in the review post.
I am still not sure how Lady Gaga week will affect Kitty, my initial thoughts were it would see her safe and she would give the perfomance of the night, however I am now having second thoughts.
It was pretty clear that they wanted to keep her in for next weeks show.
On one hand she IS likely to give a great “copycat” style peformance.
But the points raised about here being seen by the public as given an unfair advantage and the possibility of judges saying “they are not looking for a tribute act” are very valid.
From a personal point of view I would like to see her stay in, as I am in the live show audience next week and would like to see her perform again.
What next, a Spice Girls week for Littlemix? A Cranberries week for Janet??
Do you think in a poor year for X factor, frankie is becoming an anti-X factor contestant? Last night I heard him say something along the lines of he didn’t want to stay in if he was an embarrassment – but that was before he was safe for another week.
Watching the xtra factor later he was much more up beat and I wondered what would happen if he really started trying? Up till now he’s made a point of looking like he doesn’t care at all.
Saw this tweet from him today….
‘The show goes on’ please keep hating, I’d hate me to.. Thankyou for the support, looks like my beautiful followers are winning #grateful
….and just one more thing about the results show live song, it really amounted to another song for little mix given the prominence they were given during the performance of it. Another chance for producers to show what they can do.
I’m always interested in who gets the spotlight on them in the live show song, there is room for influence there too.
Hi Malcolm, I very much think that Frankie has become the anti X Factor contestant this year. In a weak and controversial series, that is clearly helping him. I also agree that the group song is a useful extra opportunity to boost an act. I have no doubt that there is a spike in the amount of phone votes during the early part of the results show, which is when we see it.
We’re down to 7 acts now, so do we think they will be doing 2 songs each next week? If so, the ‘scandal’ of Kitty performing Lady Gaga would not be so bad, as it would only make up half of the theme for next week.
Did anyone notice how pleasantly short the advert slots were this week ? No doubt at the expense of the more palatable M&S (trick) one, BUT a very clever move all the same for XF who are obviously listening to the moaning public who are switching over and losing them the ratings.
A smart ‘Wolf in Sheep’s clothing’ dupe (and ALSO a veiled show of support for MARCUS perhaps, who knows ?) Maybe it was plainly just to cash in on his well know audition comment about M&S and to ram the message home that one CAN still shop there (without having to become a popstar to afford it) ?
Its also interesting how XF brought in JLS on the very week that THE RISK went ( just to quietly them up for the rank amateurs that they are; and ‘how it should be done’ perhaps ?). Why I did not see it there and then to book THE RISK to go, I don’t know.
This was the fabulous and successful JLS stood next to (and performing in front of) their ‘poor relation’ to influence the public ‘that you can’t polish a turd’.
A big message too that it was what THE RISK were up against in a market where there isn’t any room for a JLS clone attempt (BUT there IS however a space for a girlband … LITTLE MIX).
JLS were raving about LM to possibly win it in the EXTRA FACTOR interview and they are a very BIG influence on the voting teen girls.
Even THE RISK had to admit that they favoured LITTLE MIX to win too now that they are out of it. LM will sweep up their floating votes now to make them a more powerful force to reckon with.
There are still some decent prices left for a ‘straight forecast’ either way along with my main man MARCUS.
It is interesting that WAISSEL didn’t bounce second week & perhaps it is the case that the first fall triggers an automatic panic response from fans to vote, the second fall acts as confirmation of unpopularity, whereas a third fall stirs a more significant ‘unfairness’ response, which can resonate far wider than the act’s fans. Just a thought.
First of all a thank you to the person(s) on here who suggested backing LM as top group @ 3/1 when only the two groups remained. In addition to having a bet I also blogged the bet so others may have taken it too.
After three emails over 36 hours I finally got a (unacceptable) response from Coral concerning the “fireworks” bet:-
“Please be advised this opening sequence was pre-recorded and does not count as a live part of the show hence your bet hass been settled as a loss.”
IBAS beckons.
You’re welcome Mike. 3/1 in a 2 horse race just seemed way too big. Good luck with IBAS.
Steve Brookstein lead from the start, it wasn’t due to Sharon’s rant.
Next Week Is apparently Lady Gaga week, If Little Mix are given Born This Way they can milk it a LOT! After Jesy’s insecurities (I’m beautiful in my way because God makes no mistakes)
It seems as we progess being buried in the middle can be bad, The Risk were forgettable this week whilst Misha B dropped into the bottom 2 following a middle slot.