X Factor 2011: Week 2 Post-Mortem

Sunday’s show witnessed the first sing-off of the series. It was an interesting chance to test some theories we noted about the showdown in our review of X Factor 2010. Following the script we laid out in that article, the first act to perform was lesser favoured Nu Vibe, the boyband we explained had almost been strangled at birth in Week 1 and read the last rites in the death slot this week. Second up was the highly favoured Frankie Cocozza, a shock inclusion in the bottom two following his disastrous showing on Saturday.

It was incredibly obvious that producers would rather have Frankie Cocozza enjoying a subsequent sympathy bounce than Nu Vibe, who would only deprive The Risk of potential fanbase. During the sing-off, I wagered over £4,500 at odds of just under 1.2 on the teen group being sent home. Predictably enough, Nu Vibe were given their marching orders, by a 3-1 majority vote. Frankie may well have come last in the public poll.

Many Sofabet commenters were admirably accurate about Frankie’s descent into the danger zone. Mark Adam explained, “Frankies performance was poor which is why I put him at risk”. Allan said, “Frankie was unbelievably bad! Got on him to go halfway through the performance at 42 on BF for tiny stakes. Think he has a big chance of being in the B2”.

Meanwhile, Nicky was spot on, as was Simon who reckoned, “Nu Vibe have been thrown to the wolves so for me its Frankie and New Vibe in bottom 2 and Frankie to survive.”  Ronnie also realised, “Better off backing him in other related markets such as bottom two or to be saved by judges.”

All very impressive. Please continue with your feedback on tonight’s result and its implications for next week and the rest of the competition. In the next few days, Sofabet will give a full analysis of Saturday’s rather strange show, which saw many of the entrants handicapped by poor song choices and judges comments. What were producers thinking? We have a few theories.

Plus we will look at how useful social media can be as a barometer of viewer opinion. Frankie had more Twitter followers than anybody. Does his poor showing this week suggest we should ignore who’s trending and not, or are there other ways to put this information to use?

57 comments to X Factor 2011: Week 2 Post-Mortem

  • Jack

    I do wonder if Frankie will a sympathy bounce. I just wonder if the public won’t buy Frankie as a credible artist. I’m not sure he will be in line for one. I agree that he came bottom of the public vote – Maybe this was a reason for the twist? He could feasibly have come bottom with public vote last week and that would be a producer-favoured act eliminated already. I think that tonight proved that girls aren’t going to vote for him and that he has no chance of getting near the final.

  • Will see if I can glean anything over the next few days. Might just be a demographic thing

    • Daniel

      Indeed Toby, and the demographic of twitter users compared to phone voters is one of the things that has to be taken into account in any interpretation of social media activity. You did also say of the huge amount of negative tweets about him, “where did all the hate for Frankie come from?”

      • There definitely indicators of a risk for frankie, but I’m more troubled by the lack of support for rythmix. Wondering whether they’re getting the “good role model” votes or something.

      • Donald

        Daniel , the hate been there from day one, out of acornss grow Oak trees. Frankies just got touched with the magic wand of a terrible song choice (for him) and a shocking peformance but it was there waiting.

        It’s waiting for few more too but not that evident yet.

  • EM

    Good week for me. Took Nu Vibe to go at a decent price yesterday morning and Frankie bottom two this morning.

    Some random thoughts:

    1. As I noticed last year the poll on Digital Spy’s X Factor forum was accurate with Frankie and Nu Vibe getting only 2 votes each. No passion for them at all. The Digital Spy vote was topped by Kitty though, not sure how accurate that was.

    2. There’s no love for Frankie anywhere I can see and he may well have come bottom. It’s hard to see a sympathy bounce for him right now but a lot depends on press/VT/slot and performance next week.

    3. If you watch X Factor USA you’ll see a lot of familiar faces in the production crew. It’s not unreasonable to think a lot of the big talent behind the British show has moved to the US to establish that. That would explain the strange song choices.

    4. If I was a producer I’d be doing everything to keep Jonny in. He’s fun, sympathetic but will get the controversy going if more credible acts like Sophie and Marcus go while he stays.

    5. They’re pushing for Sami to stay in with nice VTs and pushing the Welsh factor. Rythmix too got a push with a strange “curse of the girlbands

  • tpfkar

    Would have been comfortably up if I hadn’t had a late dabble on Rhythmix bottom 2 based on Toby’s analysis. Still, broke even.

    Perhaps the era of the producer is coming to an end? If the golden boy can’t even get past a single week with producer support, they’ll have their work cut out for the rest of the series. But they only nobbled one other act – Sami Brookes who was always likely to be safe.

  • EM

    (cont) mentions. Can’t remember them mentioning such failures before.

    Right now I’d say Sami and Frankie bottom two next week with Frankie going.

  • mark

    Is it just me or did anyone else think that during the show Frankie had less air time when they showed clips of yesterdays p[performances?

    Also to note – it seemed to me like they only showed negative comments for Frankie – including his own negative ‘i deserve to go home after this’ whereas with the rest there were both negative and positive comments shown

  • Boki

    One note from this evening: I did quick and dirty analysis of 1st act announced safe in last 2 seasons and conclusion was that 1st and 2nd acts safe are normally in the middle of the vote for that week. Today were Risk and Janet!? Can it be that the main favorites scored so average? Now I don’t trust The Bitch Factor writers, did they just mention the safe names without exact order or this time was just different…

    I suspect no conclusion to be drawn.

  • Curtis

    I did a bit of number crunching on online polls and realised that Frankie was in more danger than I thought. I then placed small stakes on Frankie for bottom 2, and Johnny for bottom 2, with the idea that I would hopefully win one or the other. Worked a treat, I doubled my money. I expect that Johnny was 10th in the running, and is probably a reasonable bet for next week’s bottom 2.

    • mark

      I personally would have Johnny in the bottom 2, but im not so sure – given that he is to become the Wagner/Jedward type contestant of this years contest I would say he has a few weeks left till they decide it’s time to get shot of him? and as such he might be given a good slot next week to boost votes / good song choice / stage work etc

      Plus after he performed, there were only positive comments, no negatives..which makes me think they’re happy for him to stick around for a few more weeks?

      I would have thought Frankie is a good bet to go/b2 given how poor all his performances to date have been – and how it seems despite him having the most followers on twitter-that his popularity isnt that great…look at all the negative tweets yesterday – ALTHOUGH is he now going to get the bounce back sympathy vote? and will the producers chuck him the pimp slot and give him a good song?

      Donald – is this Google + popular now? I’ve never tried it yet

      • Curtis

        I’m definitely expecting a sympathy bounce for Frankie next week. I would also expect him to get the pimp slot, and hence probably universal praise as well. However, I have to be honest, I’m not ever brave enough to commit to a bet before the performances, so I would neither bet for him to be in it, or against him to be in it. I like to have all the information I can get before I bet, even if it means missing the juicier odds.

        If I had to bet on a bottom 2 now though, I’d guess Johnny and Sami is a good shout. Based on my calculations, Rhythmix and Sophie are faring better than people might think. Kitty and Marcus however could also be in trouble next week.

        • mark

          Hi Curtis,
          Why do you think Marcus especially? At the current prices I think there’s some value in the outright to be had

          I’m hoping he gets a decent slot next week – then nailed on to stay

          I’m wondering perhaps Rhythmix ?

          I think Frankie will be safe based on the sympathy vote and bounce back and given a good slot, last/2nd to last and Johnny will be safe for 2-3weeks more before the judges decide its time to get rid of him – they were saying comments like ‘We know you can sing’ etc – all positive, when the performance was a shambles?

          Kitty I can see being in trouble, she has a lot of haters/people who like her – she’s one of those love her or hate her characters and a lot of people hate her ..or dislike hate seems harsh

          Rhythmix/Kitty bottom 2- my early thoughts without knowing the running order/song choices

          • Curtis

            I actually agree with you that there is value in the outright for Marcus. However, with the support the show is currently showing him, with performance order and song choice, there’s also a strong possibility of him sinking into the bottom 2 in the next couple of weeks. Things are going to have to improve for him if he is to win for sure.

            Rhythmix seem to have picked up a surprising amount of plaudits and fans. When I did my voting percentage estimate calculation (which I did using a combination of internet polls which I believe to be reasonably representative of the voting demographic), Rhythmix came out in a surprising 6th place, and were miles away from the bottom 2 on percentages. I don’t take that to mean that they’re safe for sure, but they obviously do have some support from somewhere, as does Sophie who placed 5th on my list.

            I’m left to think that the bottom 2 will be a combination of 2 from Marcus, Kitty, Sami and Johnny, and which 2 it is will depend on performance order, song choices and judges comments.

          • Noisy

            Mark, Kitty should be safe for a couple of weeks yet as you can only vote for people to stay in not people to go. Her haters’ votes will be split across too many acts at this stage to eliminate her if she’s got some fans too. It’s when the haters’ choices are reduced so they start being spread across fewer opponents her days will be numbered.

      • Donald

        Hi Mark, I am not sure how popular Google+ is for sure but will make sure I get a handle on it by midweek. It is all about circles of friends and allot of young teens like it. My niece who is a decent guide has started using for example instead of FB so now she on twitter and Google+ so that rings the bell. Where all the FB crowd? Not of immediate concern but still be worth knowing for sure. No need to go on there for now. I have friend in publishing who sent me beta invite at the start so will check back and find out all about. Until the bookies are using we okay probably but are they?? I will study tomorrow. I just spent since last post on here having a serious look at all contestants on twitter which takes time. I don’t think they all running their own accounts, it is just an extension of the shows multimedia campaign, some are very badly set up including The Risk which worries me as surely Syco would have that nailed on? Great piece posted about staff on the show Comes back to my thoughts re sound last night also. Matt entered Charts today No.6. I can’t get my head around this Sophie at all it is defying all logic?

        • mark

          Hi Donald,

          Yes I suspect some of the twitter accounts are just managed by others involved in the show, same goes for the facebook pages I would imagine?? Maybe not the younger contestants, but the older ones I would think so?

          Not sure how much we can take into account the number of likes on facebook or followers on twitter, although it may seem like it means there’s more interest – it could be people just subscribe to all x factor contestants to see updates/news or perhaps were interested/a fan at one point but not anymore but haven’t bothered to remove from people they follow on twitter or pages they like?

          Whereas with analyzing the twitter tweets its relating to current mood in the last x hours/days about a given contestant – more usefl than lieks/followers

          Perhaps if it was possible to see how many new followers an act had after their saturday performance or how many new likes on Google + that could be useful? same goes for youtube views, seeing how many views there were after the saturday performance could be useful? more views after saturday could mean more interest ,

          • Donald

            Hi Mark,

            yes indeed, also FB for sure, but who ever doing is not up to pace with stuff like the post which Martin F has made below.

            When the show started this year twitter was waiting, #hastags have become popular while watching live TV much more so than last year and now a part of culture.

            That is why initial Frankie got the numbers. But as was shown on Saturday twitter and social media bigger than any amount of followers when it’s bad news. Good news different.

            Twitter feeds sure more valuable but another area is who is able to speak to their followers properly so they do the work for you while the show is on and become a real star on twitter.

            This applies to the judges also of which only one got their tweets pre show right this weekend.

            Final note for now, at the moment twitter has an influence but as the viewing numbers increase it’s influence will decrease to an extent with some contestants but with younger contestants it is a factor in victory as is FB and by Xmas Google + maybe.

            YouTube is interesting also and the “comments” to a point.

            Pre Teens/kids is where YouTube good as parents will not let them on FB etc. but will let them on YouTube to watch and what happens next they get Mammy or Daddy to buy the vote.

            So this whole social media thing has to be looked at from votes point of view and the life of a tweet.

            Lets all keep on in together?
            Toby your work ace.

  • Curtis

    I should remark that I did not factor Digital Spy’s forum poll into my formula because I believe it to be highly unrepresentative of the voting demographic.

  • Donald

    Thats what was! Nu Vibe gone. Strange weekend. Looking forward to Twitter barometer info. Twitter is real vulture land for contestants in a show like this. Will give more insight later in week also. From what I have seen on there only one contestant has any idea how to use it properly. Kitty steamed in tonight to tweet straight after been safe (Bad bad move!)Facebook is gone quiet!!! (Myspace teritory soon) Is anybody monitoring Google + Twitter where the action is for sure. Problem this year is allot of the acts just not good, so anything can happen during a show and if it’s bad the twitter mob escalate its damage as was seen last night with Frankie. Even @Lord_Sugar had a pop and he has loyal followers. They all love his football banter with Piers Morgan few players etc. No Vibe was trending today at one stage. That’s enough from me on the subject for now but I can also help with social media as I use it extensively on a project especially twitter. It can do far more damage than good if used as an ego “soapbox” which some of these contestants are really good at. Even Gary ego first tweet not that successful really.

  • Martin F.

    Social media, you say? Conversations like this keep happening on my Facebook feed, and I can vouch for the R in question as a hugely switched-on 16-year-old whose friends are, for the most part, similarly canny.

    R: Frankie is a song murderer.
    P: shut up r hes gorgeous and got talent!
    R: He absolutely murdered The Scientist though!
    P: f**k the scientist! hes just jel!
    R: But the song is amazing. He killed it stone dead!
    P: noooooooooooooooooooo.
    N: He’s ugly, talentless and faintly misogynistic. DO NOT WANT.
    P: f**k off! your just jel !
    R: And he murders Coldplay songs. Well, all songs, but Coldplay in particular last night.
    P: naaaaaa.
    N: I don’t watch X Factor – well, not with my eyes, but I sort of absorb it because it pollutes the trending topics like a vile cancer of the airwaves.
    R: He couldn’t sing it though!
    P: can!
    R: Nope, he really can’t.
    L: He’s peng. And can sing. Your argument in invalid! 🙂
    M: Why do people find this strange child attractive. He looks smelly.
    L: He’s gorgeous.
    P: your jel!
    R: Nope.
    P: k.

    If that’s happening with the clever kids, where and how do you even *begin* to analyse the rest? Bring back Eurovision season, at least you know where you stand with the well-established tastes of predictable fanboy bloggers. 🙂

    (And yes, I know, this is all hugely anecdotal. But I reckon your just jel.)

    • Donald

      You totally right, but did R cast a vote? This the major problem with all this stuff.

      It seems to work for “hate” but does it work for winning?
      N above’s point is intesting it bings the X-Factor to him and he doesn’t watch.

      My nephew is 16 also and similary canny but then my niece 15 is very different when it comes to social media and also canny. I can vouch just like you but it is great to have direct access to them all.

      Check my reply to Mark and I just gave one indicator on the rest.

      Jel or no Jel I look at this from a purely having a bet view point of view and am extremely focused in making that decision. Because of here on Sat night plenty of us had the bottom two right despite having gone with Johnny also.

      That’s what really matters at the end of the day and as Sat night showed betting in running may be safer bet for next few weeks rather that attractive odds especially with the social media frenzy on a few acts. It will settle down though.

  • Simon "le chat"

    No surprises there, alot of money piled on Frankie to be in the bottom 2 near the end but this may have been generated by Twitter and Facebook activfity rather than any leaks from the show. The betting will be coloured by the amount of votes cast for each act which WILL get out but it is early days. I still believe MARCUS is an outstanding bet to win at the very least best boy @ 100/30 with Hills. Frankie has had all the praise so far but Marcus has been very quiet which suits we followers fine. He is easily the best male singer in the competition and has a sunny personality that will appeal to the silent masses.
    JANET worries me with her 150,00 followers on FB which is nearly twice as many as the rest put together so we’ll find out soon enough if the social media counts for anything- it MUST count for something especially with that massive margin.
    However MARCUS still to win for me – at 25/1 it is astonishing odds for a genuine likeable talent and I will wait quietly until he gets a great song/pimp slot before laying some of it off.
    RISK new favourites.
    They sounded ok and the producers are pushing them but that top harmony is definitely shaky!

    • mark

      I agree marcus still best boy..but i wouldnt be backing the 100/30 top male at this point, just take the 25s or bigger for the outright –

      as to Frankie..was he getting all the praise? look at the show after his performance he got a lot of negatives and on the sunday show they only showed negatives for him (whereas the rest had both positive and negatives shown!)

      The Risk..yea I saw they went 9/4 with a lot of firms, but can they win it? can a group win it this year where others have failed – I hope Daniel writes a piece on that , I dont fancy them to win at all

  • Malcolm

    Twitter?, Frankie?. My theory has been blown out the water a bit. Toby’s info is interesting, but I wonder about negative comments? They won’t be voting P3QLXZT7.
    I thought the whole show was a bit weak no real standout performances and the new judges were just trotting out cliches to try and influence the vote.
    They talked up Rhythmix so much and seem so keen to keep them in the show I think they are fairly safe next week, even if in the bottom 2.
    Marcus is due an early slot next week and may suffer, I think they will be very keen to remove one of the over 25’s to make sue the show isn’t top heavy with fun acts, Sami seems the most expendable so I think they will pull all their tricks to remove her. Johnny has a bit of mileage left in him and there has been too much investment in kitty for either to go just yet.

    Sami or Marcus my favourites to leave next week.

    • mark

      well I hope you’re wrong, I have both in my outright and strongly fancy Marcus to be top male.. without knowing running order these are just initial thoughts..i wouldnt be surprised to see Rhythmix/Kitty b2

  • Allan

    A very good first week, backed No Vibe early doors and then laid back all my Frankie green when he was in the bottom 2.

    15 minute crossover with Strictly this week, so likely only one act inconvenienced. Sami looks to me like the most logical next elimination, but she was on 2nd this week, which means she’s possibly due a later slot. I wonder if Marcus or Sophie, who have had least profile of their categories, will get it.

  • Rob

    well everyone has been talking about social media so i thought i’d do some simple number crunching myself. this is a snapshot of reaction to this week’s performances.

    column 1 are the rankings for the number of views on the xfactor channel on youtube; column 2 is the proportion in relation to the total views (not the actual number of likes) of people who bothered to say they liked it; column 3 the dislikes – again a proportion to the total views.

    1. JD JD JD
    2. SH KB TR
    3. MB RM SB
    4. CC TR MB
    5. RM SH RM
    6. TR CC SH
    7. KB SB MC
    8. FC MC CC
    9. SB MB KB
    10. NV JR NV
    11. MC NV JR
    12. JR FC FC

    if you were to look at these in relation to the betting and come to some conclusions it would suggest JD will win easily. rythmix and kitty are stronger than the bookies think and JR, FC, and to my mind MC are in serious trouble. MC because he is likely to go early this weekend and is unlikely to win a sing off with most of those placed below him due to producer protection

    • Simon "le chat"

      Very interesting Rob.
      Mind you MARCUS has been given two really difficult songs and did well with both although the performances were nothing like as memorable as, say, Kitt’s or Craig’s Jar of Hearts. If MARCUS has an early slot coupled with another rubbish song and some poor comments, then he is going to be in diffulty, although his class should carry him through any singoff. I dont think MARCUS will go early though- Gary is already in danger of losing one of his acts in “Flat Frankie” and wont want any of the others saboutaging yet. Marcus to stay in and then provided he does for another three weeks, his class will carry him through to the later stages.There’s a nibble for MARCUS on the bookies today- 25/1 is almost gone and the “top boy” is down to 3/1.

      Jonny has a camp following and with plans for Kitty it looks like SAMI is in danger- the producers will certainly want to curtail the “overs” next week. Then the girls? They occupy three of the top 5 slots in the betting so time for one to go- SOPHIE perhaps? So it’s SOPHIE v SAMMI on Sunday? (all depends on the running order of course)

      • Rob

        simon, its a good point about the songs being difficult and believe me i’d love marcus to do better than some of the others. but the real point of the difficult songs is that they are DIFFICULT. he’s not being given a chance to shine because there is no interest in him winning. it reminds me of the movie cliche of the expendable black guy. i’ll be highly surprised if marcus doesn’t kick off the next show with something… difficult.

        on the plus side there is still hope with it being a motown week!

  • tpfkar

    Thoughts for the morning after:

    1. Either there is less subtlety this year, or I’ve got better at spotting what is going on. All the signs were that Nu Vibe were being lined up for the chop and lo it came to pass. We were told for 2 weeks running how bad they were.

    2. Frankie bottom 2 can’t have been part of the plan though. His vocals are the weakest in the competition, but to be singing for survival in the first week puts all the efforts so far to waste. I thought he would be safe as he had so many positive tweets, but I was clearly wrong to ignore the number of negatives (as I figured it’s only the positives who matter as they will vote) looking forward to the article on this later in the week.

    3. So producers have to either bail out on Frankie or push even harder. I think he will be on first two or last two next week, and my gut feel is that he will be late with a much more upbeat (and fast) song so that he can entertain with less exposure of the weak vocals. This week’s song was all wrong for him.

    4. As of midday Sunday, no-one except Nu Vibe were tighter than 13-1 to go. The producers did a miserable job at setting up anyone else for next week, or keeping Frankie out of the bottom 2.

    5. (Put armour on) The overs are far stronger than most here have given them credit for. The Risk will probably scupper my bet on Tulisa as first mentor out, but I don’t see anything about Sami to make me think she will definitely fall short of Mary Byrne’s 5th place, Johnny has lots of fans and is halfway to being the new Wagner again, and Kitty has a claim on being the strongest vocalist in the whole competition and is doing well in polls.

    6. Who is due a death slot? Sophie and Misha – both would likely survive. Kitty – likewise. Rhythmix – would be in trouble, so I suspect they will be late. The Risk – likewise. Marcus – would be in trouble. Much as I say it through gritted teeth, I’ll be looking at the odds for Marcus bottom 2 when the market is published.

  • Rob

    motown week next. it suggests that mischa, marcus, and the risk should have very good weeks. it also makes sense if janet is plan a to get this potentially difficult week out of the way early – although i’m not so sure she will struggle as much as some are suggesting.

  • Henry VIII

    I’d be wary of social media. They can sometimes be useful (not always) with change of sentiment, less accurate in terms of ultimate sentiment.

    No reason why Frankie shouldn’t get a sympathy bounce, it is a well established phenomenon. Louis
    said he had lost his swagger and Gary made a big deal about changing his song the day before the show. Last week it was changed as well.

    He’s a nice chap, more modest and unassuming than the public image he’s been given. But his publicity – dating Amelia etc – is good for the show.

  • Simon "le chat"

    Hi Henry VIII
    Frankie’s publicity is good for the show but he can’t sing. Plain as. This means he must have a short shelflife.
    I expect JANET will cover a Dianna Ross song but her yodelling doesn’t half get on my tits and I hope it gets on the publics just as much. We havent heard her do an upbeat song yet – does she have it in her?
    Maybe this weekend will be the start of Marcus’s run. We’ll know what the producers and other fixers intentions from the running order. I liked the Telegraph’s crit and description of JOHNNY as “razor sharp” ie when Barlow told him he looked like something from Alladin Jonny retorted “You can rub my Genie anytime Gary”. Class!
    Johnny will survive a bit longer- he can actually sing and it will be interesting if he does a non glitz serious number wearing something other than bacofoil.
    I still cannot believe MARCUS is such generous odds when he is the outstanding male voaclist in the competition. Anyone know where Joe McIllderry was in the betting at this part of the competition a couple of years ago? MARCUS is better than him, Quinn, Ward and as an all rounder better than Cardle.
    We’ll see.

  • Donald

    Daniel interesting stats here. The cross over gain from Strictly on Saturday was 3.6 million viewers to a peak of 11.3 million. Only 5.5 million watched last 15 minutes of the show. Simon will not be happy losing almost half the viewers. Expect changes to try rectify this? Why did this happen? Producers not getting this year right at all? Certainly looks like not their greatest weekend with Frankie disaster included.

  • Oli

    Some things I noticed this weekend.
    The Risk are made of 3 Londoners and A Scotsman, there not all from the same place but it’s a marked improvement on where the usual manafactured groups come from. In your articles about 1D not winning that one of the points you mentioned and Tulisa explicitly said it on Saturday.

    We all know about the sympathy bounce is there any bounce for the person who is revealed last? The way Marcus was revealed and he was already in tears I wondered if people would be encouraged to vote next week. But a week is a long time..

    Next week, Janet and The Risk are safe as houses.
    However I think you could make a convincing argument for any of the other 9 being in the bottom 2.
    Personally I think Marcus, Sami, Misha B will all be safe.

    I’m not sure why but I’m uneasy about Craig ditto Sophie. I think Frankie will bounce he can’t be any worse than this week!
    I was shocked by how much they pushed Rythmix and they don’t want Tulisa to lose two in a row.

    Sophie and Kitty won’t get such good slots two weeks in a row, surely.

    I’m thinking two of Johnny, Kitty, Sophie and Rythmix.

    • mark

      Agree with you except for Johnny, reading into the judges comments, perhaps too much I think he’ll be here for another 2-3 weeks, awk3 will see him get a middle of the road slot imo

      There seems to be a lot of people on here who think Sami’s at risk, she went 2nd this week – so lets expect a decent slot for the coming week – should be fine

      Marcus – looking at all the tweets on Sunday morning, he had the highest % of positive tweets, therefore meaning the least negative

      Frankie – fully expect the pimp slot and sympathy bounce

      Rhythmix – seems to be a lot less interest in this lot compared to other contestants – which is why I put them as a possible for b2 – running order dependant

      Kitty – Also had her for b2 based on the fact that she has such a lot of positive and negative tweets, people love her or hate her – depending on the slot again we could see her in b2 – early slot

      Sophie – despite what others say, I like this girl, I expect her to progress quite a bit further;nice down to earth, attractive girl, with a decent back story

      Janet – well cant see anything happening here

      Misha B – got quite a big fan base already, dont thiunk she’ll win, I think she’ll go far like Cher Lloyd, but not win

      for me it has to be kitty/rhythmix b2 – definitely not backing anything till i know the running order though

  • mark the bookie basher

    has the world gone mad or just me why the hell is the risk now fav 2 win the show??? not only has a group never won the show they have only put in 2 half decent performances janet devlin is in a class apart end ov not only that she is the producers plan a and has a huge regional vote 11-4 yes plesae lump on lump on lump on

    • Curtis

      Whilst I actually agree with you that Janet is a class apart and I also agree she is the producer’s plan, she is unfortunately divisive. Not as much as previous contestants like Cher Lloyd, but probably enough to ensure that she will not win the show. It always seems that the finals are won by the more “middle of the road” act, and you’d have to say that in a final between The Risk and Janet this year, The Risk would be that act. (Misha B is probably also too divisive to win)

      • Rob

        i can’t see where janet is divisive. i thought i could detect a backlash, especially on digitalspy but i think it’s really more like a vocal minority. you can tell someone is truly divisive by social media likes/dislikes e.g. for the weekend performance janet had (approx figures) 190,000 views, 2,400 likes, 200 dislikes. this proportion compares favourably with all of the other contestants. now a truly divisive figure is frankie his figures 84,000 views, 600 likes 1,000 dislikes. you can even compare them to similarly divisive figures for last year where frankie is in the same (even surpassed) league as cher lloyd and katie waissel whereas janets figures are trending similarly to matt cardles. i think a lot of people just want to believe JD will fail rather than looking at the empirical evidence. now i’m not saying that means she is definitely going to win. as i’ve said in the past strange things happen in these comps (just look at jai mcdowell), i’m just saying there is no real evidence that a divisive split is hindering her progress.

        • Noisy

          I think the problem with Janet is that she’s got the kind of voice that’s going to become irritating after a few weeks, so she’s still showing as popular now as people haven’t had enough of her to get irritated – yet…

    • Rob

      yes it does seem weird that the risk can storm to the top of the betting based on 2 decent performances and a lot of artificial ramping from the judges. has anyone analysed what moves the market on these shows… is it purely down to the size of the wagers being placed or is someone actually analysing the respective talents/performances aw well?

  • Henry VIII

    The following are reasons why I favour the Risk. They may not win (I think they will atm) but as the article about them on this site says – 2nd or 3rd place possible (I think top 3 very likely). Please rip it apart if you don’t agree with it, I am biased (and would rather not be 🙂 ).

    Cowell is desperate for a group to win because the program has not had a group win yet and a group win will add diversity to the XF as a competition and encourage more groups to apply in future;

    Cowell is desperate for a group to win because they make more money post show, eg Jedward, JLS, 1D – 1D’s rubbish release having the most pre-orders in Sony’s history (they are also pushing Rhythmix but 2 of Rhythmix are poor singers so they can only push so far, and they all look a mess);

    The Risk look and sound fantastic on stage;

    They harmonized beautifully from the off (1D NEVER could harmonize because most of them were/are very poor singers).

    They are all handsome young men, and women are the main voters;

    All 4 can sing well, not just the lead;

    The overall standard in the competition is poor this year;

    They ditched Nu Vibe to eliminate the boy band competition.

    • mark

      I agree with some of the comments about 1d couldnt sing and all of The Risk can – as you say it does seem to be a very poor year talent wise

      but, I can’t help but feel that a group doesn’t win – i’ve read the articles on this site about The Risk and will a group win, written last year

      I wont be surprised if they get top 3 at all, but to get across the line first? I’m not so sure, 7 series, tried as hard as they could and not managed

      Also in my mind, perhaps I’m wrong – but I imagine the public, the voters would rather get behind a solo artist than a group?

      Easier to get to know one person and feel like you connect rather than a group of 4 etc where you may know one of them but not be too sure about the rest

      • Donald

        Hi Mark, no worries re Google + it’s rated cool but numbers not really there yet, bits and pieces of activity though.

        Janet is leading online by a mile, a few snide remarks here and there and typically a few don’t like her but overall her support far far out weights it at present and growing. And her twitter account best managed by a mile. See the clever pic post from last night “me and The Wanted”

        She knows her audience which is boyband audience too she is one of them but Janet has crossover appeal also but will they try remove if they really want boyband to win?

        See Sophie styling this weekend, very middle of the road safe,I cannot figure it out.

        As said earlier if Janet gets a banker song could do it but until then anything could happen. Janet didn’t get much coverage last night, be interesting to hear what Daniel thinks about that.

        So being totally honest here I like Janet and would love to punt and see her win, there are enough little ifs and buts at the minute to keep me from doing that. although somebody had 3K up yesterday for someone to lay on Betfair so she is being backed and I have been told big loser for the bookies on their books hence The Risk now favourites maybe? I did back Marcus at the odds for the win, and a place, value for money and easy cover and he is the predicted winner on Sofabet.

        Will monitor twitter for the week quietly carefully.

    • Rob

      i’d agree that they could be finalists. they seem to be plan b if not the new plan a. as you said cowell would love a group to win. there are certain factors that cause me to doubt though.
      1. they are too old to appeal to the required demographic.
      2. their performances are not that good and i can think of four soloists that have performed better at different stages.
      3. as already mentioned its harder for the public to empathise/relate to a group than the soloists.
      4. i don’t buy that they’ll get a regional vote.
      5. they’ve not been off early yet.
      6. they don’t appear to be trending on social media as well as 1D did last year.
      7. i’m sure there’s other stuff i can’t think of right now

      • mark /mapps

        Hi Rob,

        4. i don’t buy that they’ll get a regional vote. – Agree 100% with this, I always think this is over estimated and people play it up and use it to suit their argument or justification for reasons as to why someone will get far/wont be in the bottom two etc

        It would be interesting to see voting figures per contestant and the areas where they came from – so perhaps we could see how much the regional vote does actually count for

        Personally speaking, I’m from Surrey but now live in Stoke — but if there was a contestant from either Surrey or Stoke on X Factor I wouldn’t feel I should be voting for them at all..

        There would be some in the area who would of course promote the contestant and try to drum up interest in the local area and get everyone to vote but as a % of the areas population i think it would be a very small amount

  • Henry VIII

    Incidentally I think XF ditching Nu Vibe (how they did that has been described in an article here) was a bad business decision (very common in the UK these days).

    I think they could have benefited from the Boy Band Challenge and I think Nu Vibe were vocally up to the job, if given suitable material, VT’s, slots and comments, instead of being strangled at birth. Syco would have then had 2 boy bands who got far in the competition and who they owned as cash cows.

    I actually backed both bands (Nu Vibe more) in the anticipation that that would happen (my bad business decision).

  • fiveleaves

    My twitter findings this week were very different to some other people on here.
    I had Janet doing badly and think she’s dreadfully underpriced.
    Risk very worthy favs. The very MOR rather dull stuff that wins this show year after year.

    1. The Risk 123
    2. Misha 71
    3. Marcus 43
    4. Rhythmix 40
    5. Sophie 36
    6. Janet 22
    7. Kitty 21
    8. Frankie 13
    9. Craig 8
    10. Johnny 6
    11. Sami 4
    12 Nu Vibe 2

    Rhythmix and Sophie the value.

    As for youtube and internet forums, someone a little different like Janet was always going to be popular. Especially given the pre live show hype.

    Youtube is only of any real use for changes week on week.

    If you just go on raw youtube stats then Vickers would have won with 90% of the vote.

  • Ome of the advantages of having a teenage daughter is you also keep abreast of what is going on over the pond in the concurrent US X Factor. Has anyone here seen 14 year old Drew Ryniewicz at Cowells judge’s house?
    This girl is MILES better than JANET DEVLIN and being in the same stable means that if she gets through to the US finals there is no room for Janet in the market. I think this girl is sensational and Cowell will take her through to the finals therefore yodelling Janet is surplus thus THE RISK are the obvious replacements at the head of the market.

  • fiveleaves

    I’d agree she’s miles better that Janet. The spoilers suggest she doesn’t make the 16 though.

    • Rob

      i doubt she’s better… just different. more generic i’d say. also it’s clear that these judges houses performances in america have had more post production. my ears are still ringing from the enhanced echo and the piano ramped to 11…

      fiveleaves, where does you twitter stats come from? they seem out of sync with the previous stats already posted.

      possibly janet is underpriced but your reading of diane vicker’s youtube stats is not quite right. she was a more divisive figure than janet on youtube. often out of the people who pressed like/dislike one quarter were dislikes… janet is not coming anywhere near that with the dislikes. let’s see how it pans out because it will make very interesting post season analysis.

      • Simon "le chat"

        “Drew is through” in Cowell’s last five.
        Very tough competition though – the USA X factor acts are simply miles better than any of the UK ones.
        Drew would not be put through unless COWELL believed she has a chance of winning and attacking the kiddy market.
        Don’t be too sure Psyco have Gaeilic plans in JANET. It remaimns to be seen if she can sing something other than a yodelling ballad.

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