Eurovision Betting Analysis: Will Denmark enjoy ‘A New Tomorrow’ at Eurovision 2011?

Last winners of the contest in 2000, runners-up in 2001 and fourth in 2010, Denmark has a very respectable Eurovision record since the turn of the millennium.

They have a reputation for generally choosing radio-friendly if middle-of-the-road pop. This year is no exception, with the national selection won by a band called A Friend in London, who currently are 20-1 tenth favourites on Betfair.

Can they add to a decent record with ‘A New Tomorrow’?

‘A New Tomorrow’ is reminiscent in style to the UK’s 1997 winner, ‘Love Shine A Light’, in that it is an immediate, Eurovision-style anthem offering hope for the future.

That’s not a backhanded compliment. With its consistent beat, lyrical simplicity and the easy way the verses build into a familiar-sounding chorus, this is a timeless style of song in the contest.

If I’m making it sound old-fashioned, the modern indie image of the boy group will help A Friend in London pick up younger as well as older voters.

And it is arguably the most coherent three minutes of pop in a contest not long on songs with this quality.

Especially with a good draw this should be popular with televoters and it seems likely that juries are not going to find it difficult to score this simple song and presentation well.

Perfectly drawn at 18 of 19 in the second semi-final that contains none of the big hitters, Denmark looks a banker to qualify for the final. I’d go so far to say it looks the most likely winner of that semi-final at this early pre-rehearsal stage.

With only 4-5 songs capable of winning that heat, and one of those, Bosnia, drawn at number 1, there are worse early bets than the 13-2 with Betfair you can get on ‘A New Tomorrow’ winning the second semi.

Of course, the problem of backing it for the final is that we won’t know where it’s drawn until after its presumed qualification, two days before the big event. And familiar as this song is, a good draw would really boost its chances.

It’s not a standout performance (nothing is this year), and given the straightforward nature of the tune and staging, coming on late in the running order would really help.

What else makes me wary of backing a good result for Denmark? My main concern is that I think the vocals need more oomph, especially in the chorus. This would increase the anthemic quality of the song.

If it were down to me, the four band members would be joined by two backing singers in Dusseldorf. There’s no reason why that couldn’t be the case.

The other caveats I have are that Denmark, whilst it does have a friendly voting bloc in the Nordics, the UK and Ireland, is not blessed with as many voting allies as some.

Which is another reason for a good draw in the final, so that ‘A New Tomorrow’ is fresh in the minds of neutral televoters.

You can watch the winning performance in the Danish national final here. What do you think?

4 comments to Eurovision Betting Analysis: Will Denmark enjoy ‘A New Tomorrow’ at Eurovision 2011?

  • Panos

    I agree with everything you say, I am as positive as you about Denmark and its chances. I think it’s one of the songs which are being overlooked a little(should have been top5 with bookmakers IMO) and it’s one of the few songs that I can see scoring high with both the televote and the juries (like the UK).

    • Daniel

      Hi Panos, and many thanks for your comments. I understand the opinions of some who think the song is just too middle-of the-road. But I agree with you that in the context of Eurovision, it’s the kind of song that could score very well with televoters and juries.

  • Rob

    I guess I’m in the minority in not thinking juries will like Denmark at all, and I’m far from convinced by its televoter appeal. It sounds familiar to me but not in a good way. I know there’s been some forum talk regarding possible plagiarism. I could imagine ‘Scouting For Girls’ penning something like this about 5 years ago. I think it lacks any edge and the chorus isn’t so much feel-good, the way the Danish song was last year, as utterly bland. I’ll accept I could be way off as ESC tastes are difficult to gauge.

    • Daniel

      Hi Rob, I agree that it lacks any kind of edge, which could be its undoing with televoters, especially if given an early draw in the final. On late, however, it’s the kind of thing that plenty of viewers expect and like from a Eurovision song. It’s hard to know for sure, but given an excellent slot in the running order, a Top 5 finish definitely can’t be discounted.

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