A further week with just a single act departing, which indicates another apparent attempt to save headline-grabbers Wagner and Katie, who as in week 3, got the last two slots in the show.
Seventh of eight in the running order indicate producers want the vote Wagner bandwagon rolling for another week. There were plenty of other clues. He got a big production and more airtime than anybody else. Bringing up his comments in the press about Cheryl’s background, and giving him the opportunity to explain himself was a further ploy.
Yet he is now favourite to be next eliminated, and I have laid the 6-4 on offer – which means I am betting that he won’t be going next. Admittedly, he is hard to save in any sing-off, so I would rather he avoid being in the bottom two, but I do think producers did their best to ensure that.
So who’s in trouble?
In the pimp slot, the judges ridiculously overpraised Katie’s rendition of ‘Help!’ which was a little shouty in the second half. Was this in anticipation of saving her in yet another sing-off? That’s what it felt like to me.
Who would join her in a showdown? My money is on Paije, who was stronger than last week, and received better remarks, but may well be damned by the faint praise and sense that he got a fair crack of the whip at sixth of eight in the running order.
As a result, there seems less need for last week’s sympathy votes – unless of course there’s another credible vote leak, and we must be wary of this. We will keep you updated before the Results Show in the comments section to this article if we hear from the source involved. However, I have taken 5-1 on Betfair he will be next eliminated.
I could envisage Simon taking a Paije/Wagner sing-off to deadlock on the basis that he, as already stated, thinks Paije has no chance of winning, and is happy to let the public decide. Wagner has a decent chance of succeeding in that situation. Ultimately, Simon does not want Paije surviving into the third last week with a sympathy bounce to help him.
Of the others, Mary had her best performance for some time – since Week 1 in my view – and she was very happy belting out ‘Something’ in the style of Shirley Bassey, who also covered the song. I felt that this choice and positive comments were a way of keeping her safe for another week.
They played it straight with Cher, and for the most part it didn’t work. Her odds in the elimination market were cut sharply as a result. It was a strange strategy, seemingly doing their best to alienate her fanbase. Perhaps they think that if she falls into the danger zone, they will rescue her in any sing-off, allowing her a bounce next week.
Rebecca failed to raise her game in my opinion, but the same logic applies to her – she would definitely get a sympathy bounce to take her beyond next week. Matt and One Direction look safe whichever way you look at it.
What did you think of last night’s performances, and who is most likely to go in your opinion? Let us know in the comments box below.
It was a strange (but great) show on Saturday.
The ‘worst’ acts (Wagner is a special case so not counting him in this) performed better.
Katie was arguably the best on the night, Mary as you said in the article belted out Something and Paije was very soulful (or Marvin Gaye-esque as Louis put it)
Rebecca wasnervy, Matt bit off more than he could chew, agree about Cher although Wand Erection put in solid effort.
Was advocating bigger stake on Paije and smaller on Mary before the weekend. Interestingly Mary is bottom in terms of views on YouTube (even less than Wagner) so could there be a general malaise about her performance and thus giving her even less votes?
Also having a cheeky fiver on Wagner to be first act announced safe at 9/1.
One other bet which landed nicely last week was Ladbrokes “how many times will Dermot say in ‘no particular order'” as he announces acts who are safe.
Every single week he has said it twice (we’ve checked the ‘tapes’) because it is on an autocue. They have trimmed this into 2/1 ON this week, but if you trust the producers to give him same script it is still worth backing.
Great blogs and good luck everyone.
Lee
Hi Lee, thanks for the excellent feedback. I agree with what you say. Our regular commenter Nick, analyses YouTube views amongst other things in the comments section of our Sunday articles. He has indicated before that Mary does badly in terms of Youtube views. It will be interesting to see what he has to say today.
Cher in trouble this week for me, early slot, song her fanbase won’t necessarily like, 20\1 to go is very fair…
I think Matt Cardle has upset someone. He went out first which we know is the worst position and his song was a full 30 seconds shorter than Wagner’s and One Direction’s, the shortest of the night. I don’t think he is in trouble in terms of tonight’s vote but I do think that the production team don’t really care what happens to him which could affect his ability to win. Maybe his criticism of Simon Cowell in the tabloids this week was a bad move? Interestingly, Twitter was awash with comments regarding his lack of neck and the vest wardrobe choice was extremely unpopular.
It’s too early for my You Tube stats and iTunes analysis but Katie had a very strong Twitter performance last night and she is almost equal to the main runners in You Tube views. It wouldn’t surprise me if she avoided the bottom two.
Sadly, the ITV person who loads up the official X Factor videos to You Tube must have got a bit bored as Rebecca’s performance is missing so I can’t track her. However, her Twitter performance was very low, a big drop on last week which has proved an indicator of voting in the past.
I’ll have a look at the final You Tube stats and iTunes figures just before tonight’s show.
yep im avin a cheeky bet on peje and wagner is a great lay at 6-4 on betfair… i said that rebecca needed a big performance and she was awfull im surprised she still as short as 9-4 in vc betting shes getting gradually worse every week im not blaming her im blaming c cole six slow ballads in a row she has now sang my monster bet on her is slowing goin down the plug hole matt cardle 4 me is huge at 2-1 for me he should be evs at best
I’ve had a look at Twitter activity, iTunes comments and ratings plus You Tube views.
I agree with Dan that Wagner is safe for another week and I also think that those voting for him, for comedy value, are not watching him on You Tube or rating him on iTunes so we can discount that he is bottom in terms of views and ratings on these two sites.
I feel that Paije could be safe. He has high Twitter activity and high You Tube views. His iTunes comments are comparatively low but the ratings are high. Rebecca on the other hand has had a big drop off in Twitter activity and iTunes comments have dropped a lot too. I can’t tell her You Tube views as ITV didn’t load her video. I think Rebecca could be in the bottom two.
Matt Cardle has seen a drop in activity but not a huge one. One Direction and Cher are also stable.
If the big drop in activity means that Rebecca is in the bottom two, then its either Mary or Katie joining her. Katie has high Twitter activity, high rating on iTunes and fair views on You Tube. I’ve been thrown on previous weeks by the fact that Mary’s older following don’t use these sites but I still think Katie is safe. My thinking is that the bottom two are Rebecca and Mary.
Well, there’s been no voting leak so far from the source who provided last week’s information. There have only been copycat rumours today that cannot be trusted.
Thanks Nick,
Great research as ever. Backed Mary so hoping you’re right.
Lee