X Factor Week 6 Sunday Update

I believe what we saw last night was Operation Save Wagner, much as we speculated might be the case in yesterday’s post. It is surely no coincidence that the first four acts to perform were also the four acts around Wagner at the front of the elimination betting: Paije, Aiden, Mary and Katie.

And then, contrary to rumours that seemed much stronger than last week, Dermot announced a single not a double elimination for this evening. This is a big clue for us: producers want to keep full control for an extra week, even at the expense of what will have to be a highly unconventional run-in to the final.

Now our question is: what do they intend to do with that full control in this evening’s show?

I admit that I am feeling slightly less sanguine about my lay on Wagner than I have in all the previous weeks of laying him. Not because his odds shortened after the show – the same happened last week, and the market was wrong. But because yesterday’s performance was substantially less madcap than Elvis the week before.

However, we saw last week that the producers knew exactly what they were doing when Treyc appeared in the bottom two, despite her favourable-seeming slot in the running order. And the booing after Wagner’s performance should motivate the people who wrongly assume they are annoying the show by voting Wagner. So on balance I still expect it to be lucky 7th in the running order for Wagner for the third week in a row.

The bottom line is that I have made plenty of money so far this year by laying Wagner on the principle that producers will know just how much they have to do to keep him clear of the sing-off, and nothing I saw last night substantially changes that line of reasoning.

If that’s the case, who do we think is being lined up to be this week’s Treyc?

My even-money bet on Paije to go in a double elimination this week no longer stands, but I got on Paije in the “next elimination” market at 6.4 on Betfair after yesterday’s show. Not only was he put on first – a much worse draw than Treyc last week – he was given a song that was far too fast for him. He may have benefited from some judge bickering, but may also have blown any sympathy that engendered by appearing somewhat petulant in his response to Dermot.

I’m expecting a Paije-Katie singoff, and while it would be no surprise if – as I wrote yesterday – producers decide that three sing-off saves is enough for Katie, after last night’s show I think they might just do it again. The single elimination does suggest they might be wanting to squeeze an extra week out of not just one but both of their most headline-grabbing acts.

It might not even take both Louis and Simon to pull the trigger again, as it is conceivable to me that Paije could finish below Katie, and thus go in a deadlock situation. Katie’s performance was poor, but she at least interviewed more sympathetically than usual.

As we suspected, the judges hailed a return to form by Mary, but it still wouldn’t be a huge surprise to me if she found herself in the sing-off. If they’d wanted to make sure of saving her, they wouldn’t have put her on so early – and they would have made sure they had a camera trained on her daughter in the audience.

Aiden was thoroughly mediocre, but as Nick has observed he does seem to have a highly enthusiastic fan base. If he survived Thriller, he should survive this. The rest look safe as houses.

What are your thoughts ahead of tonight’s results show? Do let us know in the comments box below.

4 comments to X Factor Week 6 Sunday Update

  • Andrew

    Brian Friedman on the Xtra Factor sounded deeply uneasy and apologetic about Wagner – apparently there was a vital prop that they didn’t manage to get onto stage in time. That would explain the awkward ten-second fill after Wagner’s VT, and also why – as Friedman himself said – the production aspect this week wasn’t as striking. So yes, the producers may have known how much they had to do to keep Wagner safe – but they didn’t manage to do all of whatever it was they had planned. And the pessimistic interpretation of the single elimination is that they doubted if they could get Wagner higher than third from bottom even with the intended prop.

  • Marinamau

    There is also a logistic issue about this weekend single elimination. Only eight acts go to the tour, so if there were two eliminated that would mean that one of the acts would go on tour but not the other one. It would be a bit weird. I don’t think it is the essential reason though.

  • last nights show was awfull and if the producers arnt carefull they r gona lose some viewers surly the show needs a boost and a double elimination as it is so predictable and boring aiden was simply dreadfull last night and if he survives the bottom 2 he must have a big and loyal following im goin 4 a wagner peije sing off with wagner saved so the 5-1 available 4 peije is a huge prics good luck

  • Nick

    Nothing I have on my (clearly useless!!!) spreadsheet predicted Aiden being in the bottom two. iTunes views and comments had Katie and Mary in the bottom two and You Tube flagged Mary and Paije as having the lowest number of views. All the information from Twitter and the figures released from last.fm had Aiden in the safe zone.

    I have been looking for trends and the only thing I can see is that Aiden had a big drop off in Twitter posts and You Tube views. His performance was still strong but not as strong as previous weeks.

    The only good thing is that Aiden going makes things a bit more interesting!!

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