Damn Simon Cowell. The ‘twist’ in this year’s X Factor has put a dent in my betting strategy, at least during these first four weeks of double eliminations.
Let me explain. Watching the show, you can tell which acts producers are interested in keeping and which acts they are happy to lose. Take Katie Waissel: she was saved last week because she’s good for ratings.
Under the traditional single elimination method, you could bet on her being rescued again. Unfortunately, the double elimination means that she or any other unpopular performer can leave automatically if they finish bottom of the public vote.
So if you are betting on the ‘next elimination’, you are working out which of the unpopular acts will get the least votes. Given the amount of deadwood in the show at present, probably with a couple of hundred votes between them, this is not an appealing market.
As a result, I might sit this week out altogether, but if I do decide to have a bet, this is how I might go about it. I’d go to the ‘Double Elimination’ market run by Skybet, Boylesports, Betfred, Bwin and William Hill. Here you are betting on whether your performer will be eliminated this week, whether automatically or in the sing-off.
Now we have to find the acts whom the producers are not interested in saving and lack popularity. The obvious one remains John Adeleye. He has another boring song choice this week with Donny Hathaway’s ‘A Song For You’. Watch the show – another early draw for him could be lethal.
You can get 5/2 about him being one of the eliminations this week, and I reckon he just needs to be in the bottom three for that to happen. After all, if he’s in the sing-off with Katie, who do you think Simon Cowell would prefer to save?!
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