On Tuesday the EBU provided the split between the jury and televote average rankings for this year’s contest, with winners Denmark topping both. However, unlike in previous years, these split results don’t actually show us what the scoreboard would have looked like if only juries or televoters had voted and points been awarded accordingly.

To see how widely the conventional points system might differ from the average ranking system, consider a hypothetical country which 20 juries in the final ranked 1st and 19 juries ranked 26th. If the split results showed us what the points situation would have been had only juries voted, as they did in previous years, we’d see this country scoring 240 jury points. Now, all we’d see is an average jury rank of 13.17.

Compare another hypothetical country which finished 13th with every jury. Jury points: 0. Average jury rank: 13. An extreme case, but Armenia’s semi-final performance provides a more practical example of how the average rankings might be misleading.

Continue reading Eurovision 2013: The Split Results

The full scoreboards for the grand final and two semi-finals have been published. You can find the one for the final here. In the first heat - which you can access here - Denmark won, beating Russia by 11 points with Ukraine in third. Estonia crept through in tenth place, six points ahead of Serbia. Slovenia were [...]

It’s here; after months of speculating. I wish I could tell you the fog has cleared, but tonight’s Eurovision is a fiendish puzzle. We have televote-friendly numbers that may struggle with juries, and vice versa. There’s a strong set of songs from the former Soviet bloc that look likely to reward each other, against a number of Nordic and other western entries that may well do the same. And most of the favourites are packed together in the favoured last third of the draw.

The announcement of the voting order – which is computer generated to ensure as close a finish as possible based on the stats from the already-compiled jury scores - didn’t help matters. Last year, the lack of the Scandi mafia until later on made it clear; the number of theories that attached themselves to last night’s revelation only serves to show there is no obvious theory this time around.

My betting amounts today will be paltry by my own standards. I’m not risking much of my San Marino winnings and instead accepting a smaller overall profit and return than usual. Nonetheless, here’s how I view it tonight.

Continue reading Eurovision 2013: Grand Final Preview

I love France’s ‘L’Enfer et Moi’ as much as anybody but it strikes an odd tone as the show opener. Amandine Bourgeois threatening bad things on whomever has crossed her jars with the ‘We Are One’ stuff that precedes it. The number two slot is oft considered the worst of the lot, but Lithuania’s ‘Something’ does introduce viewers to a strong beat and Andrius was actually in great form this afternoon. On this evidence, it’s not propping up the scoreboard.

Moldova doesn’t stack up so badly in third either. It’s our first big Eurovision ballad of the evening, and that along with the staging may help it stick in viewers’ minds longer than plenty of others following it. I’m not sure how healthy it is for Finland’s ‘Marry Me’ to be on so early, but the camera angles and staging for this looked great once more. It’s definitely not good for Spain, though. Pleasant though the song is, it’s the polar opposite of Finland in terms of impact.

Continue reading Eurovision 2013: Grand Final Dress Rehearsal 1

Here is the running order for the final. Comments below please!

Continue reading Eurovision 2013: The final draw

Semi-final 1 rattled some long-held assumptions among Eurovision hawks: notably Serbia’s failure despite voting power and the pimp slot. Trading at around 1.13 to go through, it was the biggest surprise since Anna Bergendahl’s exit in 2010. I’m a big one for learning from every new piece of information, especially given the change in the way countries are ranked this year.

What we should also bear in mind, however, is that semi 2 has a very different feel to semi 1. Geographically and culturally, there’s a significant weighting towards the far south and east, only partially offset by a ’northern lights’ brigade. There’s a much greater variety of songs on offer and more strength in depth. That was very clear in last night’s jury rehearsal.

Continue reading Eurovision 2013: Semi-Final 2 Preview

“First stage dive in Eurovision history!” Latvia’s Ralfs summed up the fun he brought to the arena as he crowdsurfed his way into the audience’s hearts. It’s a great opening to the show. San Marino were much improved today. The stage is not so dark and they’ve added some extra bling lighting-wise for the gear change. Valentina was in good form vocally.

Lozano was also sounding excellent. If he was singing alone, Macedonia might stand more of a chance. Heroine though Esma is, her parts just don’t mesh with the rest of the song and she stops it in its tracks. Azerbaijan’s Farid is a bit nervous at the start of ‘Hold Me’ but recovers quickly to give a very powerful performance, all cheekbones and tortured love.

Continue reading Eurovision 2013: Semi 2 Dress Rehearsal 1