X Factor 2016 Pre-Lives 1-12 Prediction: Middlemas Number One?

Producers have done a good job this year of changing things up a little: going into the lives, what they want to achieve seems much less clear-cut than it did at the equivalent stage of the last two series.

We can reasonably debate who producers are thinking of as their Plan A. That’s unusual. So is the fact that, in the girls category, you can make a valid argument for alpha, beta and gamma in any order. We have Emily as alpha girl, and overall winner in our traditional pre-lives attempt to predict the finishing order. More on why below.

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But there’s plenty more to ponder. There are two novelty acts – three if you add Comedy Foreigner Who Can Sing, Saara Aalto. Which, if any, will get traction? Four of the 12 acts – Saara, Honey G, Samantha Lavery and Ryan Lawrie – have already made a Lazarus-like return from rejection. Will we get another, as a 13th act? Betfair punters have been nibbling at James Wilson all week.

Sofabet’s 1-12 prediction is a chance for all our readers to get involved – you have until the show starts, at 8pm this Saturday, to post your prediction in the comments section below. It’s a bit of fun at a stage of proceedings when hopes and fears can quickly turn on their heads. Bragging rights are at stake, as always. Good luck to all!


1st: Emily Middlemas
Current odds: 9/2

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Emily has a lot going for her, not least Scotland and Simon. Beyond that, her girl-next-door demeanour is ideal for the voting demographic. “She’s adorable,” we were told by an audience member as soon as the 18-year-old appeared in white in the second audition show. That’s been the case right through to her adorable reaction to Simon’s news that she was in the lives.

We’re not too concerned that she wasn’t featured in the single bootcamp episode, which was a bit of a mess, as it’s hard to fault her edits in the other stages. In the cauldron of 6CC she was more vocally secure than any other girl, and her standing ovation was milked like no other in her category. She raised her game again at judges’ houses, and the evidence so far suggests she’ll be able to take the pressure of the lives.

One obvious concern, given the songs she’s sung so far, is that she gets pigeonholed into slowing down faster songs into acoustic versions with her guitar, and labelled a one-trick pony. It became a problem for the likes of Janet Devlin and Abi Alton. Emily does have the versatility, as she showed for example with her performance of Ellie Goulding at 6CC in 2014. The question is whether producers will let her showcase it.

We’re betting they will. Syco have seemed to be running scared of Scottish acts since Jai McDowell’s 2011 BGT win; the regional vote had previously delivered one of XF’s least commercially-successful winners in 2007’s Leon Jackson, and we felt they kept the lid firmly on Wee Nick in 2013. So the fact that they’ve treated a Scottish act so sympathetically going into the lives feels significant.

We’ve also been intrigued by the way her boyfriend, Ryan Lawrie, has been shoehorned back into the competition. As we reckon Ryan’s limited vocals will make it hard for him to reach the business end of the competition, our suspicion is that he’s been brought back as a supporting act for Emily – to give her an extra emotional connection to the audience, and sympathy when he’s voted off before her.

There are doubts. At judges’ houses, we saw Simon admit that there are already other musicians like her – but then, you could also see that as suggesting her John Lewis-y commercial potential – and usually it’s the big-voiced belters among the girls who do better on these shows. But we reckon there are enough signs of producer favour to tip the likeable Scottish lass for the win.

2nd: Matt Terry
Current odds: 9/4

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There’s no doubt that Matt Terry ticks a lot of boxes. He’s had more producer support than any other finalist during the audition stages. Simon compared him to Olly Murs at the room auditions, then said about him at bootcamp: “One of the best boys we’ve had in a long time”. The edit of his category at judges’ houses left little room for doubt that he’s the alpha boy, at the very least.

We wonder to what extent Matt is in on his favourable treatment. There was the highly contrived drama at 6CC, where he had to sing a “half-step” lower and sing again for his place alongside Christian Burrows – we reckoned the way he took it all in his stride suggested he might have been tipped off about what was going to happen.

Then there’s his audition sob story, the distressing split from his girlfriend. It was subsequently reported in The Sun that the two split “briefly” but are now back together. Does “briefly” encompass the several months between the filming of Matt’s room audition and the filming of judges’ houses? Because he was happy to milk that story again for ‘She’s out of my life’. It’ll be interesting to see if, and when, the show tell us whether they’re back together again.

The point of that sob story, of course, is that portraying Matt as single raises the hopes of watching girls. Looks and personality wise he’s the unthreatening type many girls would happily date, and of whom their mums would approve. With his supportive nan again shown in the judges’ houses edit, they’ve even been working on the grandma vote.

His vocals are at their best when he goes into a higher register. They’re good enough for a show like X Factor, without being amazing nor particularly distinctive. But there has been some inconsistency in his performances – there was a rather painful Xtra Factor performance of ‘Wake Me Up’ at the end of the 24th September episode.

And his treatment hasn’t quite been all positivity, either. At the weekend Nicole said about him to Calvin Harris: “Do you think he’s distinct enough, interesting enough?” For a young male soloist, being rather vanilla is no bar to taking the X Factor crown. But would Matt be any more commercially successful than previous such winners? That’s enough of a doubt for us to wonder if producers will really back him to the hilt in the lives, and it stops us tipping him for the win at a short price.

3rd: 5 After Midnight
Current odds: 9/2

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There’s been nothing but positivity about 5 After Midnight, and with the “limited” tag applied more than once to fellow boyband Brooks Way, the threesome go into the live shows looking very much like the alpha group. This is not to be underestimated, given the cash cow that certain groups have been for the franchise, among them JLS, 1 Direction and Little Mix.

Each time 5 After Midnight have performed, the dance moves have been slick and the vocals decent enough. Their gestation just before auditions means that they’re not seen as manufactured by the show, which may have been a factor in the public’s refusal to take to Stereo Kicks two years ago. But it means they’re still fresh and readily malleable. Simon seemed to reflect on that when he talked of their potential at the room auditions, also saying: “I genuinely believe the next big boyband is going to be one that can dance”.

In their interviews at judges’ houses they again came across as likeable individuals with an easy, natural chemistry, and JLS-type levels of Middle England-friendliness.

One problem with groups can be to build emotional connections with the audience. Judges’ houses showed Nathan, Jordan and Kieran starting to build individual identities in order to achieve that. We expect this to be ramped up from the start of the live shows. Another caveat is that groups rely on occasional harmonising that has the potential to be inconsistent, especially during energetic routines. But producer favour can paper over this with extra audio help, as happened for the likes of 1 Direction.

4th: Gifty Louise
Current odds: 9/1

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Fourth place often goes to more edgy urban acts, such as Cher Lloyd and Misha B. It’s therefore where we’ve felt safest placing Gifty, whose abilities we respect – despite a temptation to claim that Fleur East and Reggie N Bollie have now clearly established a trend for second-place finishes for acts with a Ghanaian background.

At judges’ houses, Simon said that putting Gifty into the lives was a “relatively easy” decision. Judges’ houses also set out what we can expect from her in the lives. We were told she had “brought the party”, and she agreed that it made her stand out. We can therefore expect some big upbeat productions of the like that propelled Fleur to the final two years ago – it was no coincidence that ‘Sax’ was the background music for Gifty’s 6CC intro.

Gifty has a more powerful voice than Fleur, though hasn’t shown yet whether her dance moves would match what the latter displayed for ‘Uptown Funk’. What’s interesting will be whether and how producers try to soften her edges for the Middle England demographic, something at which they never quite succeeded with Misha B. News stories like this one in The Sun, tying an unfortunate incident in her past to the tragic death of her mother when aged just 10, felt like getting the bad news out early in a controlled way.

Gifty is now an active gospel singer in a suburban London church, and has shown humility throughout the audition process. We expect that she’ll get every help from producers because she’s one of the most marketable acts in the competition.

5th: Samantha Lavery
Current odds: 10/1

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Like Americans in the civil war, the Sofabet comments section has recently been divided on the issue of SLavery. Some believe that Simon’s dressing-down dressing-down at judges’ houses marks her out as the alpha girl, and we can see the reasoning. It certainly felt like some kind of baton was being passed to her from the previously-hyped Caitlyn Vanbeck.

Both, you’ll recall, had been introduced in the first audition show – traditionally a sign of favour. Both are big-voiced teens. But while Caitlyn was styled throughout the auditions as a normal kid, Samantha was glammed up. Before she sang for Simon at the weekend, he sent her away with the insulting implication that she’d been putting on the slap with all the expertise of an eight-year-old who’s just discovered her mum’s make-up bag.

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As we waited for Samantha to return, on walked Caitlyn, now herself looking unrecognisably glammed up. Had they done this to her as part of a planned storyline to accentuate the transformation we were about to witness with Samantha? Or was it simply the flubbing of words which persuaded Simon not to run with the erstwhile market leader? We can only speculate.

It will be interesting to see where Samantha’s journey goes from here. Ultimately, we can’t help but be sceptical that producers will want another winner who has so much in common with last year’s 17-year-old belter, Louisa Johnson. Samantha’s rivals in the girls category offer more variety in that respect. And the make-up storyline provides some kryptonite for Samantha, should they choose to use it: send her out in Monica Michael’s gold dress and tell her “I feel like you’ve put the mask on again”.

6th: Honey G
Current odds: 40/1

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From the coveted pimp slot of the series opener, Honey G was introduced to viewers emerging from a North Weezy Sainsbury’s Local, declaring herself as “a genuine urban artist”. The accompanying Gangsta’s Paradise soundtrack was punctuated with extended comedy pauses as Honey is seen ‘surviving’ on the mean streets of Harrow. In our week 1 review we dismissed the act as a one-trick joke, but could there be more to the H to the O to the N to the E than meets the Y?

Honey G’s bootcamp edit was a much briefer affair but did remind viewers of Simon’s disapproval, “Oh my god, she is completely mad,” with Louis adding, “I think we should keep Honey G,” as Dermot giggled on the sidelines.

Honey was back in favour at 6CC where she received a generous amount of screen time and positive edit. Gangsta’s Paradise was again used in the intro VT before her rendition of Missy Elliott’s Where They From received rapturous applause. Nicole then orchestrated a game of “When I say Honey, you say G” much to the crowd’s delight, a routine likely to be repeated with live show studio audiences.

Before Honey’s judges’ houses segment, Robbie W reminded us that being able to sing isn’t the only thing. “No, it’s not,” said Sharon, “you’ve gotta have that personality.” Robbie also recounted a recent LA video shoot where all he could hear around him were people discussing Honey G.

Gangsta’s Paradise was then cemented as Honey G’s signature theme as she performed the Coolio track with a trio of backing singers. Before viewers could decide for themselves if they should be feeling happy, we were shown all the other acts feeling happy as they got into the vibe and threw down some moves. Robbie then told us how happy he was, in case there was any doubt, and that he would always remember Honey G.

The question of authenticity surrounding Anna Georgette Gilford’s alter ego is a theme we think producers could play with during live shows. The ongoing “is she, isn’t she?” enigma coupled with outlandish Stevi Ritchie-esque stage productions and inevitable judges banter could be enough to see Honey G squeeze into the top 6. We don’t, however, expect to see her dining out with Simon at the local Harvester.

7th: Ryan Lawrie
Current odds: 16/1

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What producers have been intending re Ryan intrigues us. With his cute looks and limited vocal, he’s always seemed more suited to a boyband than as a soloist – something Nicole and Calvin Harris reiterated at judges’ houses, which was hardly a promising sign.

And indeed Ryan was boybanded after bootcamp rejection, along with Ed Goacher, Jamie Miller, Josh Marshfield and Talis Eros. By the time 6CC came around, we assume producers had decided the boyband wasn’t working but that they still wanted Ryan in the live shows picture. It seems possible that they dreamed up the whole idea of judges’ houses wildcards to achieve this. We doubt it was coincidental that Ryan was styled so differently to his bandmates at 6CC, or told to dart off so rapidly at the start of that performance.

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It’s intriguing that none of this backstory was aired on the main show, instead being sneaked out at the end of an Xtra Factor. That doesn’t suggest producers are too interested in getting viewers invested in Ryan’s journey. He’s tweeted that he and Emily have been together for a year, something producers will presumably have known. So our guess is that he’s in the live shows for the sake of whatever plans they have for Emily.

As a cute young male from Scotland, Ryan should have the support to see him through a few weeks. We reckon they’ll run with the lovebirds story – a new angle for the show – with the intention that Ryan’s eventual departure will help to define Emily for the closing stages.

8th: Brooks Way
Current odds: 16/1

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Things looked promising for Brooks Way at the start of the series. The identical twins looked even more like Justin Bieber than they had done two years before when rejected at judges’ houses aged just 15. And there were accusations of favouritism before their first audition was even shown.

But it’s not quite worked out that way during the audition process, which has seen any praise qualified by concerns. They showed up on the third weekend of room auditions, Josh with guitar and Kyle without. After some kind words, Simon said: “To really do what you wanna do, you’ve got a lot of work to do.” They weren’t shown performing at all during a hurried bootcamp, but Simon repeated his concerns at 6CC when he questioned their “commitment and professionalism”.

All of this can be a springboard for overcoming doubts with hard work during the live shows. But the critique at judges’ houses was arguably more damning of their longer term prospects in the lives. Guest judge Alesha Dixon explained after they sang: “Do you think their performance is as good as how cute they are?” Louis replied, “They are a little bit limited, I know that.” We’re surprised to see so marketable an act given this kind of appraisal. It marks them very much down as the beta group at this stage of proceedings.

9th: Saara Aalto
Current odds: 33/1

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We thought Saara would make a good choice for the lives after her decent room audition rendition of ‘Chandelier’. Our reasoning for it was that, whilst no Andrea Faustini in terms of relatability, she seemed like an interesting foreign character who could actually sing. She ended up being a surprise inclusion, having been brought back from a humiliating 6CC rejection as a wildcard in Sharon’s category.

The Finn has one of the better vocals among the finalists, but her judges’ houses edit didn’t seem to suggest producers would be investing in her for the live shows. Guest judge Robbie Williams admitted he got a bit bored during Saara’s performance of ‘Winner Takes It All’, although that might have been included in the edit primarily to suggest to us that Saara is a bit delusional, as it was juxtaposed with her telling Dermot she thought she brought a tear to Robbie’s eye.

We do know her first live show song is ‘Let It Go’, which she should be more than comfortable with having voiced Princess Anna in the Finnish-dubbed version of ‘Frozen’, as well as performing the song in 15 different languages in a popular YouTube video. One could see her provide a wow moment for the judges, or it could be portrayed as an end-of-journey moment for her. Given that we’ve not been encouraged to relate to Saara, an earlier exit than we’ve predicted would be no surprise – but given her vocal ability and kooky character, it also wouldn’t shock us if she proves to have more longevity.

10th: Freddy Parker
Current odds: 40/1

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We thought that Freddie’s rendition of ‘Love Is A Losing Game’ at room auditions was quite pleasant, and were surprised that the telegenic lad wasn’t given more build-up. But things haven’t got better for him – with the obvious exception of getting through to the lives. His coverage at bootcamp was perfunctory and unimpressive, whilst at the 6CC he was forced to fall back on his first audition Amy Winehouse song. Nicole felt the need to spell it out at judges’ houses: “Is he versatile enough?”

This all came after unfortunate drink-drive revelations. With Matt Terry being portrayed as the clear alpha in this category, and Ryan having both a Scottish vote and the storyline of his relationship with Emily in his favour, it looks to us like Freddy is most probably first boy out. His good looks and charm might get him through a week or two against the other fodder.

11th: Bratavio
Current odds: 80/1

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The camp-as-Christmas double act is not new to X Factor, although Bratavio have taken things to imaginative new levels of styling. The pair seemed destined for a role in the live shows after their long introduction in the room auditions, when their performance played second fiddle to a contested backstory about undercooked chicken.

Bootcamp was again about the drama and the outfits rather than an attempt to engage with the song, and that carried on into judges’ houses, when the most memorable thing about them were the pom-pom outfits and Bradley pushing Ottavio into the pool. (There was also very generous audio assistance for their production of ‘Candyman’.) This is not the stuff that endears acts to the ITV audience, as Rylan’s first week bottom two appearance showed.

We can expect a huge first-week production for these two, and maybe a controversial singoff save like Rylan’s is in store. But whereas even at this point Rylan was halfway towards showing himself to be endearing, a singular problem Bratavio have is their occasional evident antipathy towards each other. This has usually meant a limited shelf-life for any group, and we expect it to stymie the pair’s attempts to get much of a sympathy bounce if they are indeed saved in the first singoff.

12th: Relley C
Current odds: 66/1

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“I say Relley, you say C!” “Relley!” “C!”. No, wait, that’s the Honey G thing. They haven’t done that with Relley C. Indeed, they haven’t done much of anything with Relley C. Of all the acts in the lives, it’s Relley who’s been most short-changed in screentime so far. We didn’t see her audition at all. In bootcamp we saw her only as she was occupying the same stage as Bradley and Ottavio. She was hardly showered with attention in the 6CC or judges’ houses edit. Viewers have been given no reason to invest in her.

That’s not necessarily fatal – we were saying some of the same things about Fleur East at this stage two years ago, although Fleur at least had put herself on the map with a memorable judges’ houses performance. Relley will need an even more remarkable turnaround if her X Factor trajectory is not instead to resemble that of Lorna Simpson, who was left lamenting her lack of screentime when she was the first act voted out in 2013.

Wildcard speculation 

Since the screening of judges’ houses, Betfair punters have continued to nibble at some of the acts we saw being eliminated. That’s especially true of James Wilson, who has traded at prices around the 30-70 mark during the week. There have also been some nibbles at longer prices for the likes of Christian Burrows, 4 of Diamonds and Caitlyn Vanbeck.

Do these represent inside knowledge or over-optimism? Time will tell. One clue is that Saturday’s show is 2 hours long, and the following week’s is 1h 50 mins. That’s what you’d expect for 12 and 11 acts respectively. They could probably just about squeeze in 13 and 12, so one wildcard seems possible – but surely not one from each category. Of course, after Amelia Lily, you can’t rule out eliminated acts returning further down the line, though that’s not a twist we’d hope to see repeated.

If we were running the show, we’d bring one act back now: James. The precedent for judges selecting one wildcard was set last year with Monica Michael, and to us it makes a lot of sense to have 13 acts for a 10-week run – it gives a cushion for an unexpected departure, or the chance for a double elimination. And James is the obvious candidate. The overs category makes much more sense with him in it – without him, it looks like two novelties and a sacrificial lamb, with a risk of Sharon being out embarrassingly early.

The reason given at judges’ houses for James’s departure did seem to leave the door open: while James said he was gaining confidence all the time, Sharon said she thought he still wasn’t quite ready yet. We’d have Dermot explaining that the other judges thought James deserved the chance to prover her wrong. Then we’d cut to James in his Dales caravan, wondering why it was rocking from side to side, and looking out to see Mrs O landing in an X Factor helicopter and scattering the sheep.

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In previous years, there have usually been firmer-seeming rumours at this stage if there is indeed to be a wildcard. For the sake of simplicity, even if a wildcard is confirmed between now and showtime, we’d suggest the bragging rights competition be limited to predicting the finishing order of the 12 we already know. Do post your predictions in the comments section below.

Photos via ©ITV / @ThePixelFactor

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83 comments to X Factor 2016 Pre-Lives 1-12 Prediction: Middlemas Number One?

  • Panos

    1. Emily
    2. Matt
    3. 5am
    4. Slavery
    5. Honey G
    6. Gifty
    7. Brooks
    8. Ryan
    9. Freddy
    10. Saara
    11. Chicken
    12. Relley

  • Rob Dixon

    Here goes:
    1. Emily
    2. 5am
    3. Samantha
    4. Matt
    5. Ryan
    6. Honey G
    7. Gifty
    8. Brooks Way
    9. Saara
    10 Freddy
    11. Bratavio
    12. Relley

  • Thomas Powell

    1. Matt
    2. Emily
    3. 5AM
    4. Samantha
    5. Freddy
    6. Honey G
    7. Relley C
    8. Ryan
    9. Gifty
    10. Brooks
    11. Saara
    12. Bratavio

  • Rose L

    1. Matt
    2. Five After Midnight
    3. Gifty
    4. Emily
    5. Samantha
    6. Honey G
    7. Ryan
    8. Brookes Way
    9. Freddie
    10.Bratavio
    11.Saara
    12. Relley C

  • Martin

    Eagerly anticipated the pre-lives predictions this year. It’s hard to disagree with any of your reasoning Daniel, although I dispute whether the public wil play ball at times. I think I came third overall last year, based on Mech’s wonderful calculations. Hopefully Mech will be back this year!

    1. Matt Terry
    2. 5 After Midnight
    3. Samatha Lavery
    4. Ryan Lawrie
    5. Emily Middlemas
    6. Honey G
    7. Saara Alto
    8. Freddy Parker
    9. Gifty Louise
    10. Brooks Way
    11. Relley C
    12. Brattavio

    If anybody cares about ramblings, I whacked my reasoning on a blog I rarely use – sorry to link here, but I didn’t fancy leaving a three thousand word response here and it helped me channel by thoughts! https://martinmills2.wordpress.com

    Main thought being that Matt Terry seems to be being drafted in as Olly Murs’ successor now he’s getting on a bit. TPTB were so accurate with their targets this year, I don’t see why they shouldn’t be again this year. They seemed to have cleared the field for him going into the live shows, although aren’t being as militant with their chosen one as they were in 2015. I think having any Scottish contestant in the final would put that at risk, so losing Emily and Ryan in the weeks prior to the final would be a middle ground between getting mileage from their sickeningly loved up VTs and them not posing a threat to their winner.

    I struggled with the girls. As you mention, alpha, beta and gamma isn’t easily identifiable at the min but 9th seems to be when the show looks to lose the gamma girl (fingers crossed for a Hallowe’en week this year!), and Gifty seems to be the least natural vote getter of the three of them which is why I put her lower down. I’m least confident of that prediction, though. I expect Brattavio to be binned off this weekend as we have two (arguably three) novelty acts this year, losing one of them in the first week won’t harm ratings and should save the show some face against some of the poor press it has received in response to the final 12.

  • 1 Emily Middlemas
    2 Samantha Lavery
    3 Gifty Louise
    4 Ryan Lawrie
    5 Matt Terry
    6 5AM
    7 Relley C
    8 Honey G
    9 Bratavio
    10 Brooks Way
    11 Saara Aalto
    12 Freddy Parker

    Once again, I’m running a spreadsheet to keep track of rankings, I’ll be taking the entries from this thread with a time-stamp before the start of the first live show.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19hatUczTYPQekSDMAy92jiCQ7j29m-FCLXTb1s8TbP8/edit?usp=sharing

    • Thomas Powell

      Wow, you think the top 3 will be all from Simon’s category? Why makes you think that would happen this year?

      • Umm, yes, it does look like I’ve picked it that way!
        It was largely based on who do I think will do well, a little of who I want to do well, and trying to make sure I didn’t just end up with a carbon copy of Daniel’s ranking… I perhaps should have looked the final list through a couple more times before posting. Oh well, guess I’m hoping the girls do well this year then 🙂

    • Anglia Chu

      It’s been a crazy half week for the show. What happens to this?

  • 1 Matt Terry
    2 5 After Midnight
    3 Emily Middlemas
    4 Ryan Lawrie
    5 Gifty Louise
    6 Honey G
    7 Saara Aalto
    8 Samantha Lavery
    9 Brooks Way
    10 Freddy Parker
    11 Relley C
    12 Bratavio

    Matt’s the obvious producer favorite to me. I think they’ll prefer both him and 5AM to Emily in the finals, and I don’t think she’s strong enough to overcome that. We already saw Simon setting her up as limited and lacking in upside at judges’ houses.

    I see Ryan Lawrie being saved a few times to keep the Emily story going, and I don’t think they’ll see him as much of a thread to Matt. I think they are skeptical that Gifty has the charisma to fly (and while she does have a better voice than Fleur, it’s not enough to make up for that.) Honey G gets the traditional 6th place joke act elimination. Saara’s voice carries her to the traditional controversial act elimination.

    Samantha really could go either way but I think Emily and Gifty will show enough to demote her to gamma with the narrative she’s not ready, doesn’t know herself, etc. Brooks Way are the beta group. I’m a bit surprised too but I can see why 5AM are more interesting to the label.

    Freddy is the gamma boy but boys tend to last a few weeks. Relley is the gamma over and shorted on screentime but perhaps her voice will make it embarrassing to save a joke act over her. Bratavio are hyped by the show but as you said lack Rylan’s likability, and the show generally cuts down to one joke act ASAP.

    On the topic of wildcards, I doubt 4 of Diamonds are coming back as one of them mentioned going shopping on Sunday on her Twitter. But then they’ve already mislead me once on social media.

  • Piresistable

    1. Matt Terry
    2. Emily Middlemas
    3. 5 After Midnight
    4. Ryan Lawrie
    5. Gifty Louise
    6. Honey G
    7. Brooks Way
    8. Sam Lavery
    9. Saara Aalto
    10. Bratavio
    11. Freddy Parker
    12. Relley C

  • Allan

    1.5am
    2.Matt Terry
    3. Brooks Way
    4. Samantha Lavery
    5. Relley C
    6. Gifty
    7 Emily Middlemas
    8. Freddy Parker
    9 Ryan Lawrie
    10 Honey G
    11. Saara Aalto
    12. Bratavio

    I think people will tire of Emily very quickly as they have done with similar acts, The other reason i would question if she is “The chosen one” is why bring Ryan back and in so doing split the Scottish vote???

  • Gavster

    1. Emily
    2. Matt
    3. 5AM
    4. SLavery
    5. Ryan
    6. Honey G
    7. Gifty
    8. Brooks Way
    9. Saara
    10. Freddie
    11. Bratavio
    12. Relley C

  • Sagand

    I looked back over the years Daniel has been predicting pre-lives he has predicted the winner to finish: 2nd, 13th, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th. So the winner is usually in the top 4 (The an outlier being Little Mix) but has never been dead on. (Maybe Matt Terry should be glad to dodge this mini-curse.)

    1. Matt Terry
    2. Five After Midnight
    3. Samantha
    4. Brookes Way
    5. Gifty
    6. Emily
    7. Honey G
    8. Ryan
    9. Freddie
    10. Saara
    11. Relley C
    12. Bratavio

  • Piresistable

    It probably won’t happen but I’d like to see an Emily Middlemas/Ryan Lawrie sing off in the semi final.

  • Fudd

    1. 5 Seconds of Midnight
    2. Gifty Louise
    3. Matt Terry
    4. Emily Middlemass
    5. Saara Aalto
    6. Samantha Lavery
    7. Ryan Lawrie
    8. Honey G
    9. Brooks Way
    10. Freddy Parker
    11. Bratovio
    12. Relley C

    Maybe I’m not thinking enough about this but for the top five read JLS, Alexandra Burke (the two switched around), Eoghan Quigg, Diana Vickers and Ruth Lorenzo. Of course from that point it all falls apart slightly!

  • Patrick

    Matt
    Emily
    5am
    Brookside
    Slavery
    Topknot
    Bratislava
    Gifty
    Honey G
    Wildcard boy
    Relley C
    Saara

    I think Brattavio are more likely to be the anointed novelty act. They’re like Jedward meets Rylan, plus their singing isn’t actually too bad. Honey G is more limited, plus there’s never been a successful female novelty act on the show (unless you count Katie Waissel).

    Any of the Overs could go first but I think Saara won’t have endeared herself to the public at all. Gifty, meanwhile, is a confident, slightly androgynous black woman – fantastic as she is, I think she’ll struggle to get far. Stranger things have happened though.

  • Tim B

    I’m waiting on a potential last minute wildcard announcement before posting mine…If James Wilson comes back to save Sharon’s category he’ll be going in my Top 4!

    • Tim B

      And although the rules state I wouldn’t be able to add him to my prediction, it would also significantly alter the positioning of one other act. Sorry, that’s what I meant to say!

  • Kenneth Chow

    Yay!!!… Finally…I’m gonna start from the last to the first

    12. Relley Clarke
    11. Saara Aalto
    10. Honey G
    9. Freddy Parker
    8. Gifty Louise
    7. Ryan Lawrie
    6. Bratavio
    5. Samantha Lavery
    4. 5 After Midnight
    3. Brooks Way
    2. Emily Middlemas
    1. Matt Terry

    In short, with this group of awful acts..I think Matt will run away with this season…Simon usually gets what he wants, so a girl will probably make the final, but I doubt any can win…i think this season will be dominated by the cute males and none of the older females will gain much water, especially with this group of older females…I doubt Gifty will pull enough votes to get the placing she deserves…I think Samantha will be the person that improves the most and has some pulling ability…also I think there can only troll act that makes it far…and I just think Bratavio fits the bill better and are more entertaining…

  • Dan

    OK, here goes…

    1. Matt Terry
    2. Emily Middlemas
    3. Five After Midnight
    4. Gifty Louise
    5. Samantha Lavery
    6. Honey G
    7. Brooks Way
    8. Ryan Lawrie
    9. Freddy Parker
    10. Relley C
    11. Saara Aalto
    12. Bratavio

    I’m fairly confident on top three and bottom three, although perhaps not the order.

    At the bottom, Bratavio are not going to get the public vote. They can’t sing and are too camp. There is no way that in a sing-off, three of the judges would save them and prevent deadlock.

    I don’t think Saara Aalto connects with anyone and so I’m not sure who’s going to vote for her. She’s nice enough but the only thing we know about her is that she’s done the rounds of talent shows and sings Frozen in Finnish. She’s had her chance already.

    Relley C is utterly anonymous. The poor girl hasn’t been given a chance this series with the lack of screen time and I don’t even remember her from 2013. That said, I think there’s a chance of a save one week and an elimination the next.

    As for the top three, really difficult, but I think we need a group in there and it’ll be Five After Midnight. They’ll need some help to get there though. Where it gets really tricky is between Matt and Emily. The last “boy” winner was Matt Cardle (and he would have been classed as an Over by this year’s standards) six years ago, so I see this category as overdue for a win. I think Emily is great and I thought she was a contender two years ago. Her “Anything Could Happen” audition back then was fun. However, and where I disagree with you Daniel, is I have a horrible suspicion that they’ll stick her behind the guitar singing slow stuff each week. We shall see…

    Happy betting and viewing everyone!

  • Few thoughts:

    1 Right now, Emily is the only girl that can win. If someone else is α then Matt will win; else it’s a toss-up.
    2 Ryan at 7 seems low (he is Scottish, after all) and all three Girls in the last 5 seems a bit much.
    3 A lot of the predictions here seem spot-on; Honey G at the Jedward/Wagner spot, Brooks Way just making it to the usual tour spot, in particular, feel so right.
    4 No airtime for Relley, yes, but surely she won’t be thrown under the bus Week 1 as she is the only reliable act in the Overs. Right? Right?

  • Will they release the song choices this week?
    Will there be a wildcard?
    Waiting for those (if they will show) before predicting.

  • Jack

    1. Matt Terry
    2. Emily Middlemas
    3. Five After Midnight
    4. Samantha Lavery
    5. Ryan Lawrie
    6. Honey G
    7. Brooks Way
    8. Gifty Louise
    9. Freddie Parker
    10. Saara Alto
    11. Relley C
    12. Bratavio

  • Leroy

    01. Matt
    02. Gifty
    03. Emily
    04. Five after Midnight
    05. Ryan
    06. Samantha
    07. Honey
    08. Saara
    09. Brooks
    10. Freddy
    11. Bratavio
    12. Relley

  • Phil

    Winner: Honey G
    Emily Middlemas
    Matt Terry
    Brooks Way
    Ryan Lawrie
    5 After Midnight
    Freddy Parker
    Saara Aalto
    Gifty Louise
    Relley C
    Bratavio
    Samantha Lavery

    I stand by my bet on Honey G! I genuinely feel that people will fall in love with her – and in quite a weak year, she is the only act people are talking about.

    Not feeling the confidence in 5AM personally – I feel like I barely know them.

    I also think the first week will see a controversial sing-off save – in this case, I’ve gone for Samantha Lavery being dispatched over Bratavio. I don’t really think people are invested in Samantha, no one really talks about her – I think she’ll slip right under the radar.

    I envisage Saara having a couple of sing off saves along her journey. Same for Brooks Way.

    • Martin

      I truly hope this happens! I don’t have your confidence in Honey G unfortunately, but with tptb willing to go to the final with Reggie and Bollie last year, its not beyond possibility. I also don’t discount the show/Honey G trolling us by sitting on some sort of amazing vocal from Honey G and this all being an act to be unveiled for a show stopping delivery of a Mariah Carey classic at some point. Purely speculation of course, but nothing would surprise me anymore.

      • 360

        I would love for Honey G to actually be a really good singer! Let’s face it, they have ability to transform her right away by taking her out of the overblown mirrored glasses, trackies, peaked cap and no makeup she usually appears in.

        Given a long dress and a haircut she’d look completely different.

        • Martin

          The fact that she appears as such a character at the moment, almost like an actress, first planted that thought. I’m not sure the show would pull it off in the context of a live performance because of the logistics of rehearsals – it would come across as extremely contrived but based on what we’ve seen her appearance to be when not in character as Honey G, she’d Have the perfect image for the unassuming, big voiced female over we usually get.

          • Tabitha

            Did they show her second JH song on the xtra factor? Just wondering if it might give a hint at more sides to her!

  • Harry

    1. Matt Terry (though, like 2011, this is a series of ‘can’t-wins’)
    2. Gifty Joseph
    3. 5 After Midnight
    4. Samantha Lavery
    5. Ryan Lawrie
    6. Honey G
    7. Emily Middlemas
    8. Bratavio
    9. Freddy Parker
    10. Brooks Way
    11. Saara Aalto
    12. Relley C

  • Boki

    Well, since nobody put Ryan 1st I’m going to make a fool of myself 🙂

    Ryan
    Emily
    5AM
    Matt
    SLavery
    Brooks
    Honey
    Gifty
    Saara
    Freddy
    Relley
    Bratavio

  • 1 Matt
    2 SLavery
    3 5AM
    4 Emily
    5 Gifty
    6 Honey G
    7 Ryan
    8 Brooks
    9 Freddy
    10 Saara
    11 Relley
    12 Bratavio

  • David Cook

    1 – Matt Terry
    2 – Emily Middlemas
    3 – 5 after Midnight
    4 – Saara Aalto
    5 – Sam Lavery
    6 – Gifty Louise
    7 – Brooks Way
    8 – Ryan Lawrie
    9 – Honey G
    10 – Freddy Parker
    11 – Bratavio
    12 – Relley C
    As I’ve said previously I think they’ve misjudged the joke acts this year and I don’t see either going too far unless they really drag them. I see Bratavio rock bottom this week, but no doubt well have a ‘shock’ elimination to save them. Unfortunately for Relley I think she’ll be the one on the receiving end. I’m guessing at least one save for Honey G too. The Boys and The Brooks all seem to be fishing in the same pond, and I’m guessing Matt Terry will pick up the lion’s share of that vote. Freddy has a decent vocal but seems very limited, whilst the Scottish vote should help Ryan for a couple of weeks at least. The Brooks twins have improved but I think that ship has sailed now – they needed to be at this level two years ago – so a middling finish for them. Gifty, Sam and Saara could be close. The Girls is probably the strongest category overall this year and a bit more diverse than the boys – but then there’s probably a reason for that! I may well appear mad but for me Saara’s the best vocalist in the competition. Her treatment so far hasn’t been good and they could well sabotage her – but if they do give her a fair chance then fourth might be possible as there’s usually one decent vocalist who makes it at least that far. By implication I don’t think it’s a great top three this year, unless they really have just set this up for Matt Terry to win. I do however have a nagging doubt he’s going to do it, as (IMHO) he would be the weakest winner since Leon Jackson nearly ten years ago. I quite like Emily – she seems to be a stronger contender than Lauren Platt who achieved fourth (could have been third) in a stronger field and despite the lack of producer support. However at the moment I can’t see her getting over the line. Five after Midnight seem to be a decent group but I’ve seen nothing yet to suggest that they are potential winners – third at best. I am looking forward to seeing how this unfolds, from an entertainment point of view it might be nice to see a contestant who does actually surprise us and comes through to win for a change.

  • Froggitt

    1 5 After Midnight
    2. Emily Middlemas
    3.. Matt Terry
    4.Sam Lavery
    5. Gifty Louise
    6. Brooks Way
    7. Honey G
    8. Ryan Lawrie
    9. Saara Aalto
    10. Relley C
    11. Freddy Parker
    12. Bratavio

  • tpfkar

    I have a terrible record for predicting departure orders but a very solid one at picking the winner. With that in mind, a few thoughts guiding my ordering:

    1) Unlike most I think Bratavio have more potential than Honey G. Decent enough vocals, movement, sparky off each other, unpredictable. Honey G is a one trick pony in comparison, what will she do on Week 2 that’s different to Week 1. Abba week?

    2) The question of Emily and Ryan is key to understanding producer intentions. My take is that girls won’t vote for Ryan if he’s pining after Emily, less of an issue the other way round. So if they make a big deal about the relationship he might be her support act, otherwise he’s a contender himself. Is it too outrageous, even for the X Factor, to think of a Hunger Games finish where they refuse to sing off against each other and both threaten to quit unless they become a duo?

    3) Who’s the dark horse who could go all the way? I’ve been impressed with Gifty all the way and will cover her in the outright – I can certainly see her developing into a Plan A if others fall by the wayside, and think she will glide through the early weeks.

    So with that in mind, I think I end up with:
    12th Place: Saara Aalto
    Like you, she was one of my favourite contestants in the auditions, but she’s been undermined ever since, and if she sings Frozen in 15 languages on Saturday, she’d be a perfect controversial ejectee against a joke act.

    11th Place: Relley C
    She might get sympathy in week 1 as she’s hardly featured, a la Sophie Habibis. But who would remember in Week 2 unless she’s given plenty of producer favour?

    10th Place: Brooks Way
    Disposable when needed. The name change actually moves away from their own names!

    9th Place: Honey G
    Assuming it’s clear that Bratavio are better performers on the night, I think the joke will have worn thin by Week 4. What can she offer the series any longer? This would wipe Sharon out by Week 4.

    8th Place: Samantha Lavery
    Controversial week 5 departure needed – and there’s a risk of a repeat of the 6 chair challenge performance which was a bit of a mess.

    7th Place: Ryan Lawrie
    I don’t see a sing-off against Emily, but one of the groups. He’ll have run his course – but they can choose to boost Emily of not by how it’s handled.

    6th Place: Freddie Parker
    A dark horse who I think is being overlooked – Made in Chelsea vibe, good looking, seems popular with other contestants.

    5th Place: Bratavio
    6 weeks of fun via a singoff or two, but no place at the sharp end.

    4th Place: Emily Middlemas
    I may end up with egg on my face here, but I don’t agree she’s as commercial as her cheerleaders say, and there’s a risk she’s too nice and dull to break through. If she shows serious movement and versatility in the early weeks I’ll reverse ferret, but definitely a risk of going down a Abi Alton route.

    3rd Place: 5 After Midnight
    Agree with majority view here.

    2nd Place: Gifty Louise
    Combines the best of Leona Lewis and Fleur East. Serious contender.

    1st Place: Matt Terry
    Looks unstoppable – and the sort of contestant who the show would find difficult to constrain once he got a lead. Not the most commercial but he offers enough good telly for them to be able to work with him and there are enough question marks over the others to justify favourite status.

  • 360

    My predictions for this year:

    1. Matt Terry
    2. Gifty
    3. Emily
    4. 5AM
    5. Slavery
    6. Ryan
    7. Honey G
    8. Brooks
    9. Saara
    10. Brattavio
    11. Freddy
    12. Relley C

    Well, this is a strange little year, especially coming off the back of last year. Further thoughts about specifics to follow.

    I’m really torn about how Gifty vs Emily will go down. There’s not much precedent of a black/mixed-race girl coming out on top over a white girl when it’s down to two, but the times that it *does* happen or has happened have been times when the white girl has been divisive – Alex over Diana and Rebecca Ferguson over Cher.

    So I think if Emily and Gifty both reach the latter stages of the competition it will be tough to say which one triumphs. It depends very heavily on what they do with Emily, whether she is ultimately an Abi Alton, a Diana Vickers, a Janet Devlin, or a Lucy Spraggan – who could have gone either way. Although let’s not forget, despite how they treated Abi, she was the last girl in her year to fall into the B2.

    5AM may be fishing in the same pool as Gifty. I expect the other two groups out quickly to clear the way, like in the JLS year. However, this has potential to not be the case – Gifty is likely versatile and we may see her trying – or put into – a Misha-B style catalogue of personas in different frocks and hairstyles week on week. She could easily be the resident singing candle or gospel singer – especially once Relley is out. Much like how Alexandra Burke could do uptempo or slow.

    Saara won’t be out first because they’ll want to keep her til at least Halloween. But she’ll probably be off the week after that.

    They’ll take Brattavio as far as they can. But I honestly don’t see that being far as they have very little likeability and no charm the way Rylan or Jedward could muster up.

    I see Brooks, Freddy, and Relley as sacrificial lambs to be used in order to push up Honey G and Brattavio. And to an extent, Brattavio as ballast they can use to keep Honey G *just* off the bottom and try and put her on a Wagner trajectory of *just* missing the bottom 2 by pushing others under her every week. Simon’s also going to take against her, of course, to empower an anti-Simon vote.

    Whichever of Ryan or Emily drops out first will boost the other. *Unless* they have a staged dramatic breakup during the series, which may boost both. Such a move certainly didn’t do Little Mix Perrie or Zayn’s careers any harm, instead propelling both to a new level of success and giving each an excuse to debut new more adult personas to fit with the story. Of course, if Emily was to drop out first, this would likely boost Gifty and Slavery, if she was still in.

    The stage is set for Matt to clean up though I think by virtue of being hotter and stronger-voiced than the other boys, and simply hitting more vote potentials than any other act right now. Of course, this can change overnight if they start presenting acts in different ways to how they’ve presented them up to now – the rises of Marcus Collins, Reggie and Bollie and Fleur and even in this series, the fall of Caitlyn is testament to how quickly that can be done.

  • Dip

    i’m gonna do based on what could happen after a few years seeing x factor, this season it’s very alike 2014, very little talented people, and worst decisions to the lives

    1- Matt Terry
    2- Emily Middlemas
    3- Honey g
    4- Samantha Lavery
    5- 5 AM
    6- Ryan Lawrie
    7- Brooks Way
    8- Gifty
    9- Freddy Parker
    10- Saara Alto
    11- Relley C
    12 – Bratavio

    So.., i hope i’m wrong, but here’s my theory, bratavio are the blond electra of this year, they won’t go far since they’ve got very low popularity and already another joke to compete with, and i agree about relley, you can’t connect with an act you don’t know nothing about.

    Saara may be the threat to the producers favourite, so i predict a sabotage just like anton from last year. Freddy won’t go far, they will be so concerned with matt and ryan-emily storys, that he’s gonna get forgotten

    Both Gifty and Brooks, i don’t know what to think, maybe can be out in a very difficult week. Ryan will go that far just for emily. 5 AM could be the one i’m already wrong, cause they can be in the finals, but maybe they’re gonna be out in a shocking bottom 2, like every other year.

    Samantha could be the surprising one this year, simon’s making of her that “simple girl you can connect with” card, and she may surprise us with a few very goods performances that will take her to the semi-finals.

    And finally the top 3, i hope i’m completely wrong on this, honey g will get through the competition, and after RnB last year, this can’t be impossible. And here we have producers plan B (emily) and plan A (matt)

  • Stu

    1. 5 After Midnight
    2. Matt Terry
    3. Emily Middlemas
    4. Brooks Way
    5. Saara Aalto
    6. Samantha Lavery
    7. Honey G
    8. Gifty
    9. Ryan Lawrie
    10. Freddy Parker
    11. Relley C
    12. Bratavio

    Oh God this was a surprisingly difficult task! I’m going out on a limb and predicting 5.A.M for the win. They’ve got the tight-knit chemistry of JLS (who proved popular and even topped the semi-final vote); individuality which will help the audience identify each member; all very capable singers which will potentially allow them to have their moment with a ballad one week; dancing skills which will be advantageous in an inevitable sea of MOR ballads and diva songs. If the producers see them as possible contenders and actively want them to win, I think they certainly have what it takes.

    I think Gifty will struggle and could be a shock early exit, similar to Laura (2008) and Lucie (2009). I don’t think she has an endearing enough personality to counteract her confident on-stage persona.

  • Hammo

    I was introduced to this site during last years show and it has revolutionised how I watch X-Factor! First ever post, but here goes. I put money on Ryan about a fortnight ago as I thought the Scottish vote would carry him home, but I’ve revised my predictions since then…

    1. Matt
    2. 5AM
    3. Emily
    4. Ryan
    5. Gifty
    6. Brooks Way
    7. Saara
    8. Honey G
    9. Slavery
    10. Freddy
    11. Bratavio
    12. Relley C

  • Andy

    1 5am
    2 Matt
    3 Emily
    4 Ryan
    5 Gifty
    6 Brooks way
    7 Honey G
    8 Samantha
    9 Freddy
    10 Saara
    11 Bratavio
    12 Relley

  • johnny

    I’m waiting till week 2 to make my prediction. Want to see how the 1st show pans out

  • Joe

    1 Brooks Way
    2 Emily
    3 Matt
    4 5AM
    5 Sam Lavery
    6 Honey G
    7 Ryan Laurie
    8 Saara
    9 Gifty
    10 Freddie
    11 Brattavio
    12 Relley C

    A group is due a win. Louis is back after a year away and his crowning glory on his return is to mentor the winning act. 5am look like the alpha group but the cute boys will go on a ‘journey’ and grow through the comp (with producer help obvs). The X Factor text comp this year is to see Justin Bieber live in concert, tying in with the younger demographic the show desperately needs. As has been mentioned on here before what’s better than 1 cute Justin Bieber type singer? 2 of them! Simon is due an act in the final so Emily will go far with help from boyfriend Ryan and his earlier elimination. Matt Terry is in the Shane/Joe/Matt/Ben previous winner mould but we’ve seen it all before. Nicole killed him off with her comments last week ‘ is a good looking singer with a nice voice enough?’

    Love this site, hello to all and thanks for making the analysis so enjoyable to follow. Enjoy the series!

  • johnny

    Thanks Joe. You’re welcome

  • Henry VIII

    1 matt
    2 5am
    3 slavery
    4 emily
    5 ryan
    6 saaara aaalto
    7 gifty
    8 relley c
    9 brooks
    10 bratsRus
    11 honey g
    12 freddy

  • Henry VIII

    Interesting theory Daniel has about James Wilson. His price movements on Betfair is the only one I’ve been suspicious of. Not committed insiders but the odd employee having the odd bet. Possibly. It’s made me think that IF there is another wildcard it would be just one and James is the obvious one.

    He’s probably the most likable, votable one there. His voice is pleasant to listen to even though thin and range limited. He could go far but ultimately his voice and more-so the fact that he sings almost the whole song eyes closed or looking at the ground means he would be easy for them to dispatch when his time was up. I’ve just had a look at his audition, bc, 6cc and jh performances. The only time when he wasn’t looking down 98% of the time was bc when he was looking left at Samantha Atkinson who “saved” him.

    What price would he be if he is a wildcard? A lot lower than now anyway.

  • Tom H

    1. Relley
    2. Freddy
    3. SLavery
    4. 5AM
    5. Gifty
    6. Matt
    7. Emily
    8. Honey G
    9. Ryan
    10. Brooks
    11. Bratavio
    12. Saara

    May as well take a punt on the underdogs. Relley is a real talent (and the only viable contender in her category) and Freddy has loveable backstory stuff working with dogs (plus is much more ‘cool’ than the other two boys potentially – in the Isaac Waddington piano-style (BGT)). Saara is being royally nobbled with her song choice tomorrow of Let It Go.

  • Tabitha

    1 Emily
    2 Matt
    3 Gifty
    4 Sam
    5 5AM
    6 Ryan
    7 Honey G
    8 Brooks Way
    9 Freddy
    10 Bratz
    11 Saara
    12 Relley C

    I’m the world’s worst predictor, so my condolences to anyone who’s picked the same as me.

    I’m pretty unconfident about having all three girls so high, but it certainly doesn’t seem impossible. I only put Matt so high because of his alpha treatment, I really don’t rate him personally.

    If there’s a wildcard I would have thought it would be most likely to be Caitlyn: the girls category was overtly portrayed as being very strong, and Simon’s already set up a wildcard comeback with his ‘that didn’t feel right’ comment when sending her home, and wanting to send through five of the girls as JH. Overs James is uncomfortable to watch, and while they might be willing to risk a live show meltdown from him for column inches, it would be awful to see and they know that.

    Ryan’s cute as anything and I’m sure he’ll get a lot of girls liking him, which might create resentment against Emily, which could lead to a sympathetic intro vt for her about twitter abuse if they feel she needs a boost at a crucial point, and which might, in turn, spill over to support for him, making him last longer than he might have otherwise. Kind of like a Perrie-Zaine writ small. It’s going to be very interesting to see how it gets played.

  • Anglia Chu

    Since it looks like there are no more song spoilers (other than Emily’s switcheroo), here goes

    1st Matt
    2nd Emily
    3rd Five After Midnight
    4th Ryan
    5th Samantha
    6th Honey G
    7th Brooks Way
    8th Gifty
    9th Freddy
    10th Relley
    11th Saara
    12th Brattavio

    NOTES
    Given that there are only 12 acts, I can’t see more than one joke act last more than a week, and while I considered the idea of Brattavio having more lasting power than Honey G, I’m choosing them to go out first because it’s so much easier to get rid of them in Week 1, and ditching Honey G will probably wipe Sharon out ridiculously early.

    I previously said Brooks Way will just make it to the tour (which usually means “out by Week 5” or something), but something about a “shock Girl exit” makes sense in Week 5. It could be one of the three, but I’m choosing Gifty for now based on instinct. In general, the position of the girls (2, 5, 8) is fungible for me; they can switch any time.

    I still don’t understand Matt’s appeal (looking like Louis from 1D just makes me think he’s novelty), but it will take a lot of directing from TPTB to knock him out of number one. Since I can’t specify a person they will push to win, Matt is my pick as winner by default.

  • SirMills

    1. Matt 2. Samantha 3. 5am 4. Ryan 5. Emily 6. Honey G 7. Relley C 8. Gifty 9. Freddy 10. Brooks 11. Saara 12. Bratavio

  • Alan

    1st Matt
    2nd Five After Midnight
    3rd Gifty
    4th Ryan
    5th Saara
    6th Brooks Way
    7th Emily
    8th Samantha
    9th Honey G
    10th Freddy
    11th Relley
    12th Brattavio

    Cant really argue with any of the logic in the article but things never pan out as expected so gonna stick to my gut feelings about Emily’s lack of potential. She doesnt remind me of anyone I see in the charts so would be surprised if Cowell is desperate to sign her. Gifty is the ready made pop star and for me would be the alpha girl.

    GIven the success of Scottish mingers in the past bringing back a cute lad like Ryan purely for narrative purposes seems like a risky strategy and I think he will go much further into the competition than others are predicting.

    FAM are also ready made pop stars and fill the void left by JLS. TPTB must surely be trying to get these to the fnal to launch a career. Not sure how relevant it is but the lead singer starred in CBBC program Dani’s Castle so will have a strong following amoung younger viewers and wont be at all phased by the live shows.

    Calling Honey G a one-trick pony is a bit unfair…..on genuine one-trick ponies. If ever there was a no-trick pony it is surely this loser. Yes everybody is talking about Honey G, but what they’re actually saying is how painfully unfunny she is. Has anyone actually met anyone who finds her remotely amusing? I hope she goes out in week 1 and disappears back to the obscurity she deserves. However enough idiots will probably think they are annoying Simon so I can see her sticking around for longer than anyone really wants.

    Saara’s inclusion strikes me as an attempt to have someone capable of a big entertaining routine in it if the two more obvious comedy acts leave early so I can see her lasting longer than others expect and might even be saved over some of the more fancied acts once TPTB realise they arent popular (Emily / Samatha etc).

    Will probably prove to be wildly off the mark as usual. Haha.

    • Popjustice seems to find Honey G amusing. They are mostly annoyed by Bratavio though, like all of us.

      Interesting info about the 5AM lead. Usually when people say they are “acting” it means they had a bit role in one episode of a minor series. I’m not too surprised though given his confidence and charisma. How that translates during and after the show is going to be interesting to watching.

  • Dean

    Prediction

    1. 5aM
    2. Emily
    3. Matt
    4. Gift
    5. Honey G
    6. Saara
    7. Ryan
    8. Brooks
    9. Sam
    10. Freddie
    11. Bratavio
    12. Relley C

  • Woofie

    1 Matt Terry
    2 Emily Middlemas
    3 5 After Midnight
    4 Ryan Lawrie
    5 Brooks Way
    6 Gifty
    7 Honey G
    8 Samantha Lavery
    9 Saara Aalto
    10 Freddy Parker
    11 Bratavio
    12 Relley C

  • Andy C

    1. Matt Terry
    2. 5AM
    3. Gifty Louise
    4. Ryan Lawrie
    5. Brooks Way
    6. Emily Middlemas
    7. Bratavio
    8. Samantha Lavery
    9. Honey G
    10. Freddy Parker
    11. Relley C
    12. Saara Aalto

  • Graham

    Joint winners Ryan and Emily
    3. Honey g
    4. Brooks
    5. Gifty
    6. Matt
    7. 5am
    8. Freddy
    9. Samantha
    10. Saara
    11. Bratavio
    12. Relley c

  • MCIMH

    1. Matt Terry
    2. Five After Midnight
    3. Samantha Lavery
    4. Gifty Louise
    5. Emily Middlemas
    6. Honey G
    7. Ryan Lawrie
    8. Saara Aalto
    9. Brooks Way
    10. Freddy Parker
    11. Relley C
    12. Bratavio

  • Cath

    OK, here goes…
    1. Matt
    2. Emily
    3. 5 After Midnight
    4. SLavery
    5. Freddy
    6. Bratavio
    7. Gifty
    8. Ryan
    9. Relley C
    10. Saara
    11. Honey G
    12. Brooks Way

    I think groups often tend to do worse than expected and I’m seeing Brookside as gamma.
    I think Bratavio have more scope to come out with a fun enjoyable performance a la Rylan or Jedward, than Honey G who sounded awful at Judges Houses. I think they also have more relatability, so Honey G out early doors.
    I think Saara will have trouble connecting but Let it Go should see her safe through week 1.
    Relley C has had sparse airtime do far.
    At the other end, Matt as top cute boy is a formula that often attracts the votes.
    For Emily, if she can maintain producer favour is likeable, talented and will have Scotland behind her.
    I think they’d want a group in the final and see 5AM as possible JLS successors.

  • Phil

    I’d say Honey G is a dead cert for the pimp slot tonight. Literally can’t imagine it being anyone else.

    Strange how there has been so little info come out yet – a handful of song choices, the theme pretty much hidden away in an article, it all seems very subdued so far. It all adds to this feeling that they’re keeping something under wraps. Which they probably aren’t.

  • Now, I have not seen any shows yet this year, so my predictions are purely based on what the acts remind me of based on the very little – or even less – I’ve seen of each one of them and the impressions they left on me from what I’ve seen on social media, blogs and word of mouth.

    12. RELLEY C
    (reminds me of: Treyc Cohen, Lorna Simpson)

    11. GIFTY LOUISE
    (reminds me of: Kiera Weathers, Jade Ellis, Rachel Adedeji)

    10. 5 AFTER MIDNIGHT
    (reminds me of: Nu Vibe, FYD, Kingsland Road)

    09. FREDDY PARKER
    (reminds me of: Sam Callahan, Jack Walton, Max Stone)

    08. SAMANTHA LAVERY
    (reminds me of: Laura White, Lucie Jones, Lola Saunders, Monica Michael)

    07. RYAN LAWRIE
    (reminds me of: Aidan Grimshaw, Jake Quickenden, Kye Sones)

    06. HONEY G
    (reminds me of: Wagner, Chico, Kitty Brucknell, Mason Noise)

    05. BROTTAVIO
    (remind me of: Jedward, Rylan Clark, 2 Shoes, Diva Fever)

    04. EMILY MIDDLEMAS
    (reminds me of: Diana Vickers, Ella Henderson, Lauren Platt)

    03. BROOKS WAY
    (remind me of: Union J, One Direction, Eoghan Quigg)

    02. MATT TERRY
    (reminds me of: Matt Cardle, James Arthur, Ben Haenow)

    01. SAARA ALTO
    (reminds me of: Ruth Lorenzo, Stacey Solomon, Sam Bailey, Andrea Faustini)

    Obviously this is a very limited view but it’s the one I have right now.

  • Liam Tait

    1. Emily
    2. Matt
    3. 5 After Midnight
    4. Gifty
    5. Brooks Way
    6. Honey G
    7. Samantha
    8. Ryan
    9. Freddy
    10. Relley C
    11. Bratavio
    12. Saara

  • 1. Matt Terry
    2. 5 After Midnight
    3. Sam Lavery
    4. Emily Middlemas
    5. Saara Aalto
    6. Ryan Lawrie
    7. Brooks Way
    8. Honey G
    9. Gifty Louise
    10. Freddy Parker
    11. Relley C
    12. Bratavio

    A few notes…I’d be surprised if Bratavio weren’t Blonde Electra’d tonight with a big colour vomit production. They’re almost totally unvoteable. This will be to boost Honey G.

    Speaking of Honey G, it seems that I’m predicting her lower than most on here. She is certainly a laugh, but she’s got three big hurdles in her way: the constant wearing of sunglasses is part of her schtick but gives her no connection to the audience. Her talent level is undoubtedly a lot lower than your average novelty act. Thirdly, she is an URBAN act, and urban acts struggle in the vote on this show at the best of times. If she gets anywhere near the halfway stage, I think it’s because she’d have to be dragged there.

    Last year, the producers left out female vocal powerhouse Jennifer Phillips as clearly she was too much of a threat to Louisa. The omission of James Wilson makes me think that Matt Terry is their chosen one this year. I agree with others who believe that SYCO are looking for a new male to sign to their label. Similarly, Four of Diamonds were solid in the groups category but were not allowed through. This makes me think that they want 5 After Midnight to do very well.

    I have put Saara Aalto higher than most. Her edits have been poor but I don’t think they will want Sharon to be too embarrassed with the performance of her category. Saara will put in very solid and professional performances, if allowed to shine with the right song choices – and Let It Go is right in her comfort zone. She is a villain rather than a novelty act, and a very talented one. She will probably need a couple of sing off saves but I can see her being the last remaining Over whilst not threatening to make the final.

    Tour tickets need to be sold and so they will want to keep both Brooks Way and Ryan for a few weeks at least.

    The Girls category is the biggest conundrum, but I got a Fleur East vibe from Sam’s treatment at judges’ houses. Slight doubts about Emily potentially being given the Abi Alton treatment make me put Sam just ahead of her. Gifty I think is overrated, but she is the kind of act Simon would normally want to do well, so I’m not sure.

  • I’m saying Bratavio will do a Rylan tomorrow night. Cue lots of red top headlines and “I’ll never watch again” tweets and posts. They can go under the bus next week. It’s too good a publicity stunt not to do.

    • Fudd

      They’ve got a mash up of Boom Boom Boom and Barbie Girl though – has any act fallen into the bottom two after being given a mash up to perform, particualrly a joke act?

      • Martin

        I’m pretty sure Diva Fever did after a mash up of Barbara Streisand by Ducksauce and an actual Barbara Streisand song didn’t they? Although that was with a performance containing very little vocal content and two lesser known songs than Brattavio have this evening.

        I think cases can be made for them, and Honey G both going and staying this weekend. If Brattavio are bottom two i think they’ll go. They couldn’t hold a tune if you gave them a bucket and they are clearly both fame whores who despise one another and I don’t think the public has warmed to them at all. There’s been a lot of press about Honey G, everybody is talking about her above any other act on the build up to tonight and I doubt the show would want to lose out on that so early on. If she were to end up bottom two, I’d expect her saved.

        • Fudd

          True but, as you say, the songs were not well known and they lacked a clear vocal performance. It also came off the back of Sunny, which proved they could sing given the opportunity. Of course, Johnny Robinson went home off the back of Hung Up/(You) Spin Me Right Round so mash up’s can harm an act as well.

          It will be based on staging and, of course, they have booted a joke act early doors previously when they’ve had more in one. I just have to wonder why they would benefit the likes of Relley and Freddy over either of them though.

  • Lara T

    Ok here goes…

    1) Matt
    2)Samantha
    3)Emily
    4) 5am
    5) Freddie
    6) Gifty
    7) Saara
    8) brooks way
    9) Ryan
    10) honey g
    11) relley
    12) bratavio

    I think there was a definite touch of the Flear East about sams jh performance and so I think she will go far, possibly even win, however at the moment Matt has everything lined up in his favour. Bratavio out first after a sing off with Relley, where the judges will be ‘seen to do the right thing’ after last weeks controversy.

  • 1st Matt Terry
    2nd Samantha Lavery
    3rd Gifty Louse
    4th 5am
    5th Ryan Lawrie
    6th Honey G
    7th Emily Middlemas
    8th Saara Aalto
    9th The Brooks
    10th Freddy Parker
    11th Relley C
    12th Brattavio

  • Steve

    Although I still have the niggling feeling that they have brought back Ryan to push Emily over the line I’m going to go with….

    1. Matt
    2. 5AM
    3. Sam Lavery
    4. Ryan
    5. Emily
    6. Honey G
    7. The brooks
    8. Gifty
    9. Saarah Alto
    10. Freddy
    11. Relley C
    12. Bratavio

    If the sing off between the Scottish lovebirds is engineered at the quarterfinal stages I’ll switch horses and back which ever one producers choose to save.

  • Ben Cook

    1. Matt Terry
    2. Sam Lavery
    3. 5 After Midnight
    4. Emily Middlemas
    5. Ryan Lawrie
    6. Gifty Louise
    7. Brooks Way
    8. Honey G
    9. Relley C
    10. Freddy Parker
    11. Saara Aalto
    12. Bratavio

    I can’t see Emily as a winner right now because I think viewers prefer someone who can belt a song out. She’s a little too quirky I think.

    Sam is the dark horse. I think Honey G is going to poll really badly every week because I think she’s just going to look silly rather than be amusing – so I think she’ll have to be saved 2 or 3 times to even come as high as 8th, which is optimistic.

    I have a funny feeling Relley is going to pull something out of the bag and poll better than expected. She was very good in JH.

  • johnny

    1 ryan
    2 Emily
    3 5am
    4 Matt
    5 Bratavio
    6 Saara
    7 Gifty
    8 Fred
    9 Brooks
    10 Sam
    11 G
    12 Relly

  • swablu

    1. Matt Terry
    2. 5AM
    3. Sam Lavery
    4. Emily Middlemas
    5. Ryan Lawrie
    6. Gifty Louise
    7. Brooks Way
    8. Freddy Parker
    9. Saara Alto
    10. Honey G
    11. Relley C
    12. Bratavio

    Longtime lurker, first time poster here. Hello! Emily is my favourite so I hope I’m wrong but honestly I think Sam is more likely to be the alpha girl based on what I’ve seen so far. I’ll back Matt for the win since we haven’t had a boy winner in 4 years which is incredible for this show, and I think he may get the ‘bland’ vote i.e. everyone making 5 votes on the app throws one his way, which is how Ben Haenow won, right?

  • Dave S

    OK, on the grounds that a) Bratavio will be saved a la Rylan if they land in the bottom 2 today and b) the producers will fail to make the most of Emily and will Devlin her, leaving Sam as the alpha female, let’s go for…

    1 Matt Terry
    2 Sam Lavery
    3 Five After Midnight
    4 Gifty Louise
    5 Emily Middlemas
    6 Saara Alto
    7 Ryan Lawrie
    8 Honey G
    9 Brooks Way
    10 Bratavio
    11 Relley C
    12 Freddie Parker

    But obviously Emily should win – she is such a sweetheart.

  • 1 slavery
    2 5am
    3 Matt
    4 Emily
    5 gifty
    6 Honey
    7 brooks way
    8 freddy
    9 Ryan
    10 relley
    11 saara
    12 Bratavio

  • Lenny

    1. Matt Terry
    2. 5 After Midnight
    3. Samantha Lavery
    4. Emily Middlemas
    5. Gifty Louise
    6. Honey G
    7. Ryan Lawrie
    8. Saara Aalto
    9. Freddy Parker
    10. Brooks Way
    11. Relley C
    12. Bratavio

  • MCIMH

    The Brooks seem to be gone! Perhaps they need(ed) a wildcard after all.

  • Donald

    Hi all, have not seen show for weeks or read Sofabet,… missed predictions also.. will catch up tonight on all things Sofabet, just online to watch show now. GOOD LUCK TO ALL.

  • myriel

    Personally I think why Saara is not going to succeed is because of (no pun intended) her lack of X factor.She is a pretty girl with a pretty voice, but that’s all she is.She lacks something that makes her connect with the audience, as if she is acting an emotion (turning all her performances melodramatic and awkward to watch) instead of feeling it.There is a notable lack of sincerity.All I got from her performances is her desperation to make it, I always get bored.And with her 2nd live show performance her vocals became very shouty,which took away the only thing she had going for her.
    I think she could have career as a musical theathre actress or a voice actress, maybe as a lounge act or ESC contestant.But she lacks originality that it takes to be a contemporary artist.Also I think her vocals are slightly overrated.It’s not that she can’t sing,but the reason why her voice stands out this season is because of the overall low quality among the finalists.

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