BGT 2016: The Post-Mortem

Now that’s magic! BGT producers left punters bamboozled and confounded after Richard Jones won from trap two in the running order, like a rabbit being unexpectedly pulled from a hat. How did they do it? Was it even part of the trick? Were they expecting to pull out a bunch of flowers instead?

The fun […]

BGT 2016: Final Preview

It usually feels harder to guess pre-show who producers will want to win a BGT final than an X Factor final. One reason for that is simply that BGT is so much shorter: just one audition and one live show before the final. On the X Factor, if producers are going to give up on […]

BGT 2016: Running Order in the Semi-Finals

Britain’s Got Talent starts its week of live semi-finals on Sunday, and it’s a brave punter who’d bet on them before seeing the running order. We now have four years of data with nine-act semi-finals (i.e. 20 data points for each running order position). Here’s the average percentage of the vote achieved from each slot:


Eurovision 2016: The Post-Mortem

Eurovision rarely fails to surprise and provoke, and that’s certainly proved the case this year. There’s been a constructive discussion in our comments section about the political aspects of Jamala’s participation and ultimate victory. From a betting perspective, this year was considered tricky and unusual: each of the frontrunners had flaws, and it was considered […]

Eurovision 2016: The grand final

And then there were five. The market has decided all but a handful of acts are rank outsiders. Behind the top tier of Russia, Australia, Ukraine, France and Sweden there’s a gap to Malta, which is the falsest position of all in the outright. I don’t think France is going to win, but I wouldn’t […]

Eurovision 2016: The second semi-final

According to the betting market, there’s a clear-cut nine qualifiers in this semi-final. It’s headed by Ukraine, after an impressive set of rehearsals catapulted Jamala to second place in the outright market. Australia’s Dami Im raised her game for the jury rehearsal last night, and the two rightly dominate the win market for this heat.


Eurovision 2016: The first semi-final

Eurovision has more twists than a soap opera. Yesterday I had a deadline to write an article elsewhere, and tipped The Netherlands for a top three position in this semi-final at a value price, before Douwe Bob’s silent ten seconds fell rather flat in the jury rehearsal. It’s not a positive development, though I don’t […]

Eurovision 2016: May 8 rehearsals

Just the second rehearsals of the automatic qualifiers today, so a much shorter article than usual. Indeed, one main point of interest – the draw to see if the Big 5 will get a first or second half draw – now takes place at the welcome ceremony this evening.

We know what we’re going to […]