The 73rd Annual Golden Globes, hosted by Ricky Gervais in Los Angeles tonight, will provide the year’s first significant shake-up in the Oscar betting markets. The Oscars themselves don’t take place until February 28th, but before those little golden men are handed out we can expect numerous twists and turns in the main categories.
The film industry awards calendar is historically a game of two halves. By New Year the majority of critics’ groups have already chosen their winners and a consensus has started to take shape with the films/actors enjoying most success gaining the early momentum. After the Golden Globes comes a sequence of more respected presentations from the industry guilds – directors, producers, actors, writers, cinematographers, editors etc all have their own awards ceremonies. Crucially, these are the people whose collective votes will determine the Oscar results, not the film critics who have already had their say.
We will cover the Oscars more thoroughly in the near future, but for now the focus is on the Golden Globes and highlighting a couple of key categories that represent some value in the context of Oscar betting.
The Golden Globes split its best picture nominations into two groups – Drama and Musical/Comedy. The likely scenario is that ‘Spotlight’ wins Drama and ‘The Big Short’ wins Musical/Comedy. The latter film has managed to generate good momentum in recent weeks and previously long Oscar odds have now shortened to best price 3/1 at the time of writing. If things go as expected at the Globes, ‘The Big Short’ will be an even bigger short when the Oscar markets respond and may even position itself as frontrunner for the big prize.
This is where things start to get tricky. The Globes are quite happy to award best picture to one film and best director to another, creating a split that is comparatively rare at the Oscars. This year should be no exception and because ‘The Big Short’ is likely to be rewarded for best film (Musical/Comedy) over closest rival and highly praised ‘The Martian’, it will be no surprise to see the latter’s director, Ridley Scott, pick up the Globe in this category. Alternatively, if ‘The Martian’ wins best film (Musical/Comedy) then expect to see George Miller giving an acceptance speech here for his brilliant direction of ‘Mad Max Fury Road’.
At the time of writing Ridley Scott is best price 3/1, third favourite for the Oscar with George Miller 8/1, fifth favourite.
Best Supporting Actor
It will be hard for the Globes to resist handing this to Sylvester Stallone. His return to form as Rocky Balboa in ‘Creed’ is an unexpected delight and is genuinely awards worthy. If, as expected, he wins here and is included in the Oscar nominations announced on January 14th, his current odds of 4/1 will feel like real value.
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander is not only nominated here for her role as an A.I. robot in ‘Ex Machina’, but also in the best actress category for her role opposite Eddie Redmayne in ‘The Danish Girl’. Best actress, however, will be won by Brie Larson who has so far proved virtually unbeatable this awards season, leaving the door open in supporting actress for Vikander to be recognised in her breakthrough year.
Because of the two performances there is some ambiguity surrounding Oscar category placement, however, ‘Ex Machina’ is undisputedly a supporting role and BAFTA’s recent agreement in their own nominations should point to the Oscars doing the same. Vikander is currently best price 8/1 to win the Oscar and 4/1 to win the BAFTA – prices that will become significantly shorter if she takes home the Globe.
As mentioned, we will follow up with a more detailed Oscars article but in the meantime we’d love to hear the views of any Sofabet film buffs!