X Factor 2015 Week 1 Elimination: Whoopsie Bupsi?

There’s been no news of a flash vote in tonight’s show, or double elimination this weekend. A story appeared in today’s Sun suggesting the franchise would go “back to basics” after the judges’ houses live reveal, which implies no such gimmick. Also, if you’re going to introduce such a measure to boost ratings, better to trail it beforehand. Still, it can’t be completely discounted.

Having found a 1-13 prediction particularly hard this year, the Sofabet team can’t wait for the first live show as a more concrete indication of various contestants’ chances. It’s worth bearing in mind that many acts get a fair crack of the whip to prove how high they can fly in the first phone vote.

But there are usually a few instances of contestants being thrown under the bus in the first live show. Last year, Blonde Electra were given horrible colour vomit staging, whilst Overload Generation were slated for their Katy Perry cover, as a way of making Stereo Kicks own Katy Perry cover look better.

As a general trend, the first half of acts to leave in each series since the categories have been in their current form, are as follows:
2014 group, group, girl, girl, boy, boy, girl, boy
2013 over, over, group, group, girl, boy
2012 over, over, group, girl, over, group
2011 group, over, girl, group, over, over
2010 boy, group, over, group, over, group, girl, boy
2009 group, boy, group, girl, girl, over
2008 group, group, boy, boy, girl, over
2007 girl, over, group, boy, girl, over

This list is testament to the vulnerability of the least popular group and over. It was the reason why Bupsi and Reggie n Bollie were in the bottom two places of our 1-13 prediction. Unfortunately, bookmakers have also been savvy to this, pricing them up at around 6/4 and 3/1 generally in the first elimination market. There’s a valid theory that it would be a shame to lose two fun acts so soon, which may be one reason why another over, Max Stone, follows them closely at 5/1.

Analysing song choices is rather speculative without knowing how each will be arranged or staged. (Though the release of song snippets on iTunes at around 6pm last year became a useful pre-show clue.) Nonetheless, of the three who top the elimination market, we’re most comforted by Reggie n Bollie’s choice of Shaggy’s ‘It Wasn’t Me’ which feels right up their street. We’re least comforted by Bupsi performing one of Marvin Gaye’s less iconic songs, ‘You’re A Wonderful One’. Max has the opposite challenge, covering Adele’s iconic ‘Someone Like You’, which could go any which way.

Next up in the market come Mason Noise at 10/1 and Alien Uncovered at 12/1. As commercial propositions, we expect both to be given plenty of help tonight. Mason still has to overcome a “bad boy” tag as a result of his six chair challenge outburst, but at this stage you’d probably bet on him being saved in a sing-off, at least against one of the more disposable contestants. His song choice, Justin Bieber’s ‘Sorry’, suggests further mileage out of his bid for redemption. Alien Uncovered have a promising number in Jessie J’s ‘Do It Like A Dude’.

Kiera Weathers is a 14/1 chance to be eliminated, Monica Michael is 20/1, and it’s 50/1 bar. Kiera’s song choice of ‘Crying For No Reason’ strikes us as lacking a big moment, but she does have a regional vote to back her up. Meanwhile it would be a surprise if Monica Michael’s moment of resurrection as the Wildcard was cut so cruelly short. You’d expect some goodwill for her in this week’s phone vote.

Overall, we believe Bupsi is a deserving favourite to get our 1-13 prediction off to a decent start. But odds of just 6/4 are not really appealing enough with no previous week’s live show to provide clues. We’ll be watching carefully for what happens tonight instead.

What do you think? Let us know your latest thoughts below on the first elimination, and your reading of the first live show as it happens.

61 comments to X Factor 2015 Week 1 Elimination: Whoopsie Bupsi?

  • Chatterbox5200

    In the past, the novelty act has often been kept in (by public vote, or in a song off), as a defiance of Simon Cowell – by the public potentially as a protest vote. As Bupsi is in his own category, she doesn’t fit into that bracket, as it would only act to please rather than annoy the smug one.

    She also doesn’t have the same comedic value of Wagner or Rylan to look forward to, just the “Nasteh” act that has already been showcased during the audition process, which will get boring very quickly.

  • stoney

    Saving her over a better singer will still create headlines. I won’t be touching them prices

  • Natasha

    Max for me. Who is he???

  • Jessica Hamby

    Probably between Max, Bupsi, Keira, Monica and Reggie & Bollie, with Monica abd Keira least likely to go. It all comes down to running order for me. If any of these are first act followed by an ad break, then bye bye. If there’s no break between first and second and one of these is second I would worry for them. I’m not making anfirm prediction until tonight but with so many acts, memory holing plus unmotivating comments can be lethal without the need for a full on kitchen sinking.

  • Fifteen minutes of Strictly overlap tonight, which is enough for people switching over to miss one act. Ben Haenow is performing tonight, so could be him in that slot I guess.

    • Alan

      They wont have an act who’s already signed to Syco in the death slot. They’ll want as many people to see Haenow as possible. He is already in the position of making Cowell money after all.

  • Bupsi for the elimination. Pay special attention to which of the two girl groups get more love from the producers. And lay Louisa for the win. The first Plan A’s generally come unstuck.

  • Donald

    There were some serious conversations re phone.lines been open at same time and Beeb and ITV were told sort it out. Tim observation could well be spot on..

    They seem to.have been quiet on App votes promo so.far. Wonder how they will play that tonight. Might even be gone or put.away quietly.

    As with other recent years being on late early live shows not always an advantage. Tight margins in voting. Will be watching with interest.

    Another area tonight is two new judges. offering.comments. Will they stick to script or really try put down markers first show. Judges to steal the show tonight and get headlines. Be typical…

    Finally we got Olly and Caroline new out front. Wonder will they be as useful to Sofabet observers as Dermot so often was..

    Interesting night ahead. I wonder s Simom giving Max early.practise for his Adele duet 🙂 and his breakthrough to the public.

    Enjoy the first live show everyone, and here’s to a great live 2015 season for all and thanks for.making the.”bloated” prelims bearable.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Haha. This Is Me – but I don’t choose the song.

    Like Rita’s hair today. She’s obviously making a big effort after last week waitress in space look.

    Oooh. And she’s giving the new puppies their tv debut.

  • Jessica Hamby

    If it stays Girl, Over, Group, Boy all the way through then Louisa will get the pimp slot.

  • mb79493

    Digital Spy forums tell me Bupsi changed her song to Tightrope by Janelle Monae. Great song, I think it’d suit her. Could be great.

  • Fudd

    Simon referenced ‘British songs for British band’ with Alien Uncovered again.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Subtle job on Keira there. After Alien Caroline said, “After the break we’ll hear Anton.”. Keira is actually next, is damaged in the comments by Simon and Nick and is now about to be memory-holed (slaughtered) by (one of) the best singers in the show.

    B2?

    • Fudd

      I reckon so. The criticism wasn’t harsh enough to get a sympathy vote and Keira made things worse for herself, possibly, by saying ‘they’re fair’. The VT made a thing about her connecting with the lyrics only for Nick to turn around and say that she didn’t connect.

      They changed her look too, from the hairstyle she’s well known for to a sharp ‘brush back’.

    • Jessica Hamby

      Possibly going to do the same thing again having only mentioned Che before the break.

      Are Reggie & Bollie about to get a kicking for poor vocals?

      Heh! Evidently not.

  • Dazzle

    Antons performance has for some reason reminded me of Sam baileys the power of love in week 1. He is going to top the votes.

  • Jack

    App votes still there but just not open until end of the show. Had to pause it to see though; definitely not playing it up for some reasons.

  • Alan

    I wish Kiera’s elimination odds had reflected her win odds. I always had her down as cannon fodder but she was never long enough to warrant backing.

    Still Lauren looks like cannon fodder to me so I might find some value there. Did they think she would be popular enough to not be troubled by the death slot? Or is she just disposable? For me it’s the latter.

    • Jack

      May just be protecting my winners pick but definitely the former for me re Lauren. Paul Akister and Hannah Barrett opened up the first show in recent years. It’s not the death sentence it once was. If it wasn’t a sign of confidence I don’t think they’d have given her universal praise.

    • Jessica Hamby

      I got an under the bus feel from Lauren. If the two of them end up b2 then Keira will go but Lauren won’t come back from it. Lauren and Alien will both have a strong girl fanbase so it might be good for Alien to ditch Lauren (who was dated in comparison). Did Simon also mention that she couldn’t dance and was being led? I think so.

      Mind you, visually this Reggie & Bollie thing is horrific. Tbh the whole package aint all that. Comments are positive though.

  • mb79493

    I was left thoroughly unimpressed by Anton. I just do not get it. At all.

    Kiera being slaughtered. How come everything I love dies? 🙁

  • Fudd

    Regarding Mason – The song name up in lights behind the performer doesn’t usually bode well. And the dancers were miles away from him for the most part.

  • AnnaC

    Lauren had a real ‘journey’s end’ presentation – singing Whitney was all she had really wanted to do and now she’s made it.

  • Donald

    Kiera and Lauren treated very badly. Even down to styling and hair. Most parts of show very average so far. The games with clapping and room noise hilarious.

    • Alan

      I thought Kiera looked good. The first time she has looked anything like her true age. Everything else was bad news for her though. Especially her acceptance of Simon’s comments.

      Sick-bucket inducing comments for Louisa. This blatent pimping will surely back-fire.

      • Jessica Hamby

        I hope so. I’ll need to watch / listen again but it will be interesting to compare backing track and sound quality. I’m so cross I’m on the “anyone but Louisa” team now.

  • R

    Louisa receiving the full “Sam Bailey”.

  • Jack

    Behind from everyone else but I thought Che was fantastic.

  • stoney

    Plan A will not take much pimping to get over the line with performances like that!

  • Martin

    Wow Louisa got winners single staging and treatment in week one. She’s standing out so far, I wonder if that’s reflected in the voting.

    Mason and Keira are my shouts for bottom two so far, but we’ve still got Bupsi to come!

  • mb79493

    Louisa. Well. I’m shut up. Damn.

    The comments though. Vomiting.

  • AnnaC

    Bupsi under the bus too – not working enough in rehearsals then her face half-hidden on stage, colour vomit and lukewarm comments.

  • Alan

    They might as well have given her the death slot and be done with it.

  • Jessica Hamby

    What the hell are Fourth Impact wearing? Wtf are they supposex to be? Compare their confusion and difficulty VT with Alien Uncovered who knew exactly what they want to do.

    And they’re not british.

  • mb79493

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoYakU4qZkc

    Ladies and gentlemen, I’m just going to state the obvious, we have a doppelganger in our midst. I… as an artist who respects creative, integrity, and intellectual property, I’m disgusted at how much you have copied my girl group from the hair to the dresses. Do you not have any value or respect for originality? You’re a laughing stock, its cheesy, it’s disgusting. I personally – I personally found it absolutely, artistically, atrocious. I am embarrassed to be sitting here in your presence having to even dignify you with an answer of my opinion. I’m going to say it, it’s disgusting. You make me sick. It’s absolutely disgusting, you have no identity, and I can’t stand it. I’m ashamed to be here.

  • AnnaC

    Plenty of merchandising opportunities with Fourth Impact; the dolls should sell well.

  • Jessica Hamby

    How are you supposed to make Life On Mars sound like anything but a show tune? That’s how it’s written. Noone will like it though. He’s being strangled at birth.

  • Alan

    Oh dear. Everything about Seann’s performance screams novelty act to me. TPTB keeping his vote well and truly in check I think.

  • Snowfall

    Well that was… interesting. Bupsi’s surely gone, Max and Kiera had a bad week too. Alien Uncovered really impressed me, I thought they were the best of the week. I go off Seann more each time I see him. Reggie and Bollie were fun, the song was a perfect choice and the vocals were a lot better than they might have been. Monica did a lot better than I expected, Fourth Impact a lot worse. The public flagellation of Mason Noise is getting old now. Louisa did well but the comments were nauseating. Lauren and Ché’s song choices weren’t great but they sang well. Anton just leaves me cold tbh.

  • Jessica Hamby

    I’d just like to say that all of you who were being cynical yesterday – you were right and I was wrong.

    I was so excited for this series and now I feel like crap. Not because of betting. My each way on Alien is looking quite shrewd and my top girl on Lauren is only a fiver so it’s no big loss. It’s just the manipulation. Who on God’s green earth would dress Fourth Impact like that deliberately ffs? THEY HAVE A STYLIST WHO DID THAT ON PURPOSE!!!!

    Bah. Just bah!!!

  • Martin

    Poor old Seann, he’s capable of so much more if they’d only let him.

    Bupsi is B2 cert – the song choice was horrific, her vt negative and her comments pretty muted. The other bottom two is between Max and Mason IMO – lets be honest nobody wanted a reggae version of Adele and Mason was poor but he’d be saved. Keira was forgettable – I’m not even sure a regional vote would get her out of the bottom two as it convinently wasn’t mentioned. I can’t comment on Reggie and Bollie, I loved them and from what I saw they were treated favourably. Both girl groups were treated well too, and Cheryl was praised for her mentoring so maybe the groups curse will bypass the first week. Not sure how alien will go down with voters tho, it was a very full on performance.

    Were Cheryl and Louisa intentionally wearing basically the same dress tonight?!

  • Jessica Hamby

    Listening to Louisa again they’ve put put tons of effects on her voice, chorus and reverb particularly, to fatten it and they’ve made sure the backing track is arranged and mixed to sound as epic and expansive as possible. Compare it to the others and they sound dull in comparison.

    So the chosen one is clear from a betting perspective – never mind all the star imagery, VT. comments etc.

    From a viewer perspective I’m pissed off that it’s so unfair and that people enter the show in good faith to get shat on. I know I should understand this by now but it still gets me.

    It was a happy accident that if you turn over rewatch on plus one at the end of the itv show, the first person you hear is Louisa.

    • Fudd

      Of course they can put all the work in possible but if the public don’t bite then cue an about turn.

      I thought Seann did well enough tonight; certainly enough to see him through to next week and I think the headwear was geared for people to vote him through to see what he might wear next week.

      Monica was something of a surprise package and seems to have been elevated from Wildcard choice to Beta Girl… but maybe that was always the case and they used the Wildcard to system to generate some early sympathy?

      4th Impact had a mix – some positivity but a feel of brakes being applied; as Jessica Hamby alluded to with their styling especially. It was a marmite song choice but they, like Alien Uncovered, are a marmite act.

      Alien were pushed hard and the ‘British’ epithet was pushed again, making me think that Simon’s comment at the Six Chair Challenge wasn’t just so he had something to say. Anton did well enough to tick over. I have the feeling Max, Mason, Bupsi and Keira are being primed for an early bottom two appearance, with Mason the safest of the three.

      • R

        The public always bite, it’s called mass marketing. Hence the success of On Direction, Little Mix, etc

        The about turn in this show only occurs when the contestant refuses to play ball.

  • Lia

    When 4th Impact started performing my 9 year old screamed: THAT’S FIFTH HARMONY’S BACKGROUND!!! Wow! Talk about recycling…

  • wkrs

    Think we’re looking at two of Max/Bupsi/Keira, although it’s a long show and Lauren may well have been forgotten when the lines opened. I think the show will drop Max first, then Keira, then Bupsi.

    Don’t rule out a surprise double elimination, especially with the wild card and if it lets them cut the ‘right’ artists.

    Louisa got the only 4JSO but failed to make the most of an uber pimping, not helped by a bland arrangement of God Only Knows.

    I know there’s a lot of tricks, but….Che can sing a bit, can’t he?

  • Lia

    Bupsi, Kiera and Max in danger. Not sure Mason will be that but he will only last Katie Waissel style.
    I really liked Alien and Monica. They sounded very good amd very current.
    They pulled out all the stops and tricka for Louisa. Sounded a bit desperate. They only used the constelations for Ella Henderson a few weeks in. And vocal rest before the first live show is worrying. The madness is only starting and she’ll only work harder and get more tired.

  • Lake

    The Facebook likes look exactly like an elimination order producers would love. They’d love a girl / group / over / boy Top 4.

    Louisa Johnson – 2,327
    4th Impact – 1,815
    Anton Stephans – 1,797
    Seann Miley Moore – 1,608

    Monica Michael – 1,353
    Lauren Murray – 1,258
    Reggie N Bollie – 1,216
    Mason Noise – 1,201
    Che Chesterman – 1,179

    Alien Uncovered – 852
    Max Stone – 736
    Kiera Weathers – 424
    Bupsi – 260

    • Jack

      FB likes were accurate for the bottom two at the first few weeks last year, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all for that to be B2. Think Kiera would be ditched in that situation.

  • Biggest X Factor nuking of all time if they manage to get Kiera into that bottom 2… and out?

  • Andy

    Che, along with Louisa, was on voice rest at some point in the week but strangely enough it wasn’t mentioned in his VT. Coincidence? I think not.

  • sparkly_roy

    I think that Lauren’s treatment was more favourable than Kiera’s….Lauren also has a lot of likability. She looks much for reliable than Lola for example – her vocal was actually really good. With that song & performance I think the classic X factor voter will see her through this week. Kiera’s treatment was not good at all!!!

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