SCD2015 Discussion Thread

There’s no better time to start a discussion thread on Strictly Come Dancing than during the launch show. Tonight the celebrities are paired with the pros, and the betting begins in earnest. Peter Andre starts the series as the early favourite. Let us know your fancies and thoughts below.

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72 comments to SCD2015 Discussion Thread

  • DannyCraig

    Peter Andre a worthy favourite. Expecting him vs Georgia / Helen for the title. Anthony Agogo unfortunately not looking like he has much rhythm (my speculative 12/1 shot on him not looking too strong right now)
    Ladbrokes 7/4 on Peter Andre to be top male looks great right now imho.

  • stoney

    Still keeping an eye on jay. Hes got the most potential to go on a journey looked very nervous last night and has drifted out to 9s as a result.
    Early favourites have a poor history on most reality programs especially strictly

  • Wonder if anyone got on the 12/1 offered on Janette to be the winning pro before the market was closed before last night. I snapped that right up as soon as I found out the partnerships earlier in the week.

    No gender has ever won Strictly three years running. We’ve now had two female winners in a row which means we are set for a male winner this year, Darcy basically confirmed it on the launch show.

    Also no professional dancer has ever won the show more than once, this favours Janette and Otile hugely.

    Safe to say I’m all in on Peter having backed him the moment he was announced and Janette as the winning pro (basically Peter Andre to win at 12/1). I’ve covered Anthony but I really can’t see anyone other than Peter taking it. I’m sure they’ll be twists and turns as always but Peter really does look hard to beat based on stats, fanbase, dance moves and likeability.

  • stoney

    Decided to get stuck into jay when he drifted to 10/1 for me he was the value before tonight and still is even at 7’s can see him shortening week by week and is definately on a journey to the final. Peter hugely over hyped tonight.

  • stoney

    Andre being pimped for the 2nd week in a row. Worrying times for the favourite backers

  • stoney

    For the first year ever im more interested in strictly than i am the x factor. Things might change as the lives begin but ive got stuck into jay the last few weeks. Not only that but i had the winner last year so feel my best shot at a nice xmas bonus is with strictly. Jay is leading every poll ive seen over the last week and has twice the amount of likes on the strictly facebook page. Early days i know but ive got a good feeing on this one

  • stoney

    Jay mcguiness won the competition tonight. Game over

  • Chatterbox5200

    Interesting that the show has continually reminded viewers of both Helen and Georgia’s previous dancing experience, but have yet to mention that Jay went to The Charlotte Hamilton School of Dance when he was younger (source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_mcguiness#Jay_McGuiness).

    This was mentioned by Jamie East on Twitter tonight – https://twitter.com/mrjamieeast/status/652925595387625472

  • stoney

    Just checked the strictly facebook page. Jays performance tonight has at the moment got 63000 likes. Peter Andre is only 60 thousand likes behind him lol. No wonder jay is almost odds on to win.
    That’s an astronomical amount of likes on a facebook page. I don’t usually follow strictly as in debth as i have this year but im pretty sure thr top x factor performances struggle to hit 10 thousand likes per week

  • Natasha

    Almost 90 000 likes now on the strictly Facebook page for jay. Wow, the others are struggling to reach 5000 lol

    His shyness and the fact he is unaware of how good he actually is, is endearing. The total opposite of Peter Andre!

    Its still early days, very early days. Has he peaked to soon? Is being an early favorite a bad thing?

    • stoney

      He only just became favourite last night so I don’t see it as a negative. Only ever so slightly concerned that he is looking like a pro too early in the competition. Think that’s why they didn’t give him the 40 he deserved last night.

      • Natasha

        If indeed a male is going to win, I can’t see anyone else but jay winning. We have another 10 weeks to go lol can he keep the momentum going or will there be a dark horse that shines bright towards the end and eclipses jay?

        I backed him last week so hope he manages to keep going till the very end and wins it

        • Jessica Hamby

          Aliona is v popular too. If he was with Kristina or Ola it might be harder for him. The dance school stories could cause a backlash but they didn’t hurt Caroline Flack.

          • stoney

            Probably half the contestants each series have had some form of dance training. From what I’ve seen on the Internet most people aren’t fussed that he’s had training. Everyone is embracing a bloody good dancer who let’s face it is a singer from a boy band that to my knowledge never danced.
            The fact that the show aren’t highlighting any of this is good news as they are obviously wanting him to have every chance of polling each week. If they want a male winner them jay is the best shot they have by a long margin.

  • stoney

    Even the eliminations are proving easy to call this year ive won my stake money on jay back already the last 2 weeks. Who needs x factor 🙂

  • Natasha

    Im on for carol getting the boot this week and I too am enjoying this years strictly more than I am x factor

    • stoney

      Cant see it myself. Huge fan base via the bbc. I’m thinking more along the lines of jamelia or kirsty, just can’t haven’t decided which one.
      Definitely all about strictly this year, I’ve even been watching the occasional it takes 2 spin off. Honestly never thought I’d see the day I preferred a strictly series over the x factor.

      • Natasha

        I did a bit of reading earlier and spotted Kirsty is doing the Paso doble which I envisage being totally terrible lol also noticed that she has near to no support on any of the sites I read. Went in for the kill and took the 10/3 available for her to be eliminated Sunday.

        Re x factor, the audition process has been dragged on for far too long and gotten boring so I too have switched my interest this year to strictly

        • stoney

          Lol carol to kirsty in the space of a few hours. The reason ive lost interest is basically all down to Mr Mcguiness. A nice price which is set to earn me a packet. I have laid down a few smaller bets on the factor but I am not gonna follow that up as id rather keep piling the money on jay than risk more money on x factor and get another poxy runner up

  • Alan

    Does anyone know if Jay is free for the Strictly tour? Wont he get thrown under the bus if he’s not available?

    • stoney

      We don’t find out this early. Yes he would be chucked under the bus as would anyone else not taking part. I see no reason why he wouldn’t do the tour though

  • Kermit_The_Frog

    Contestants with previous experience (as in real experience) do tend to lose public favour, though Jill Halfpenny won (the public didn’t like Denise Lewis for some reason) and so did Caroline (though, in the nicest possible way, she always seemed a bit too rubbsh to be a ‘ringer’).

    Jay has peaked VERY EARLY. The last example of this was Sophie Ellis-Bextor and we all know that she didn’t win.

    My ‘favourites’ money would go on Andre/Jay but my ‘dark horse’ money is on Anita – she’s the only one of the Top 5 that doesn’t have previous experience, is bloody good and comes across as very likeable…

    By the way, there have been winners who didn’t do the tour before…

    This week’s elimination is obviously hard to predict (so much depends on how they score during the show) – though how Kirsty has escaped the dance off so far is a mystery to me.

    3/4 dance off participants so far are 3/4 non-White contestants – Strictly hates when the public (accidentally) show prejudice, so I anticipate Jamelia and Ainsley getting positive VTs and inflated scores.

    Finally, there’s only room for one ‘public favourite’ escaping the bottom 2 against all odds – so Carol or Jeremy will be leaving sooner rather than later.

    (Really) finally – Daniel couldn’t possibly win the show. Could he?

    • stoney

      In a nut shell no he couldn’t. Id want another 0 on the 80/1 before i got tempted. Also most of the dancers in previous years with dancing experience haven’t had nowhere near the level of support jay has got. If the final was this weekend he would win by a landslide. But yes still a long way to go

      • The Ferret

        if you have got a decent amount on Jay at 10/1 then now is the time to be laying it off and locking in the profit. 2.22 is available to lay right now on BFair, “many a slip twixt cup and lip” and all that means it should be a no-brainer!

        • stoney

          May cover in the latter stages but hes only gonna get stronger. As i said my stake is covered from the last 2 eliminations now is not the right time to be laying off.

  • stoney

    Kirsty to go this weekend to make it 3 out of 3 for me. This series is so far like taking candy from a baby

  • Jessica Hamby

    Peter Andre called a liar by a judge this week too. That’s not a good look.

    • stoney

      Sweet might back him for elimination in a few weeks. His fan base is too big to go this early plus i don’t see him coming low enough in the scores to go out just yet. I see he was sniping about jay in the paper. Very desperate he is

      • Jessica Hamby

        He’s getting a lot of “big head” feedback and being accused of acting like he thinks it’s his for the taking. He’s quite good though, so an early exit is unlikely in a dance off. Is he likely to come up against someone better than him?

  • Jessica Hamby

    Bad luck Stoney. Sounds like Daniel’s stage fright got the better of him in the dance off. I almost backed Kirsty myself but stayed out of it in the end.

    • stoney

      Within a whisker of a 3 in a row. I honestly thought kirsty would go against anyone in a dance off. Just a shame that strictly play by the rules a bit more than x factor. Cos we’ve seen umpteen sing off mares stay in the competition

  • stoney

    Strictly embarrassed the x factor last night ratings wise. And although i came up short for the 2nd week running in the dance off (backed jamelia to leave) I was happy that jays march to the win is very much back on track. I think there playing the patience game with him now. Amazing performance a few weeks ago with a hiccup and a return to earth last week. Back up the top end of the leader board last night and I fully expect him to hit a 40 score in the next 3-4 weeks

    • Jessica Hamby

      X factor was utter garbage yesterday. I’m not sure I’ll bother with it tonight myself.

      • stoney

        An epic fail. Gonna be going into the live shows with a whimper. I’ve pretty much lost interest

        • Henry VIII

          Stay with it. I’m enjoying it much more this year, much better singers and more interesting characters than the last few years. I’m also enjoying the dramatic way they produce it too, but maybe I’ve become desensitised to all the naffness.

  • stoney

    Might be a few weeks early but 100/1 for andre next elimination is way too big. Well worth a small punt. Hes definately due a dance off in the next few weeks

  • stoney

    Andre moaning today that his chances of winning are being scuppered as he’s not doing the tour. He had no chance of winning but this is indeed the nail in the coffin to his chances.
    Carol has to go tonight!

  • Jessica Hamby

    Jeremy is out.

    Jay is drifting, Georgia is shortening.

    • Ferret

      yes – sussed that from the outright betting with several bookies removing him from their lists … nice £300 profit after he drifted to 6.8 on betfair earlier in the week – got enough on to be able to lay off and guarantee a decent profit!

      Worried about Georgia now though – she is a £324 loser in my book after i could not get £50 matched at 7.8 pre-show tonight

      • Jessica Hamby

        She could well do him in the final but at their best J / Aliona are captivating. It’s going to be interesting.

        • stoney

          Georgia is being pushed in order to create a competition. In reality there isn’t one. Jay had it won since his jive in week 3. I fully expect him to be back at the top end of the leader board tonight dancing the salsa. He will also shorten again. And once he produces the jive in the final it will be a done deal

  • stoney

    An absolutely brilliant moment just now on the strictly spin off show where Jamelia says she knew she was going home in the dance off when they re-recorded a standing ovation for the hopeless Andre.
    That was the last thing the producers needed. They really need to fix up otherwise this show will head the way the X factor has

  • stoney

    Jay clearly the best last night but they are reigning his score in a tad. Should have topped the leader board last night but the public aren’t fooled he’s miles ahead of the pack in the polls.
    Oh and the fact hes the last man standing should seal the deal now. Gonna be a merry xmas

  • Jessica Hamby

    Georgia and Helen b2. Helen out.

  • Jack

    I’m very new to watching Strictly, but surely the fact that Georgia hit the Dance-off from second on the leaderboard suggests she has comparatively small support compared to Anita, Jay and Katie? When does it switch to complete public vote? As I say I’m very new to Strictly.

    • stoney

      Next week (semi) will be the final dance off
      Then it’s public vote for the final. Georgia hitting the bottom 2 explains the recent good dance positions she has been getting along with being overmarked.
      I would expect jay to get a 40 next weekend leading into the final

      • Jack

        Cheers Stoney. What’s confusing me is why is Georgia still a strong second favourite when it seems that Anita, Jay and Katie have all seemingly got more support than her and the final is entirely sorted on public vote. Is it like X Factor in that more people vote in the final and they’ll be voting on ability?

        • stoney

          She isnt m really a strong second favourite shes drifting every day. But she seems to have the producer backing. But i think if she gets to the semi she is most likely to finish 4th as we know her phone vote isn’t as strong as the others. However caroline fell in the bottom 2 last year one week and went on to win. As did Abbey Clancy. I guess that’s why she is still second favourite as I think a lot of money will have been staked on her from punters looking at value aside from jay who has been at very low prices for over a month now.

  • Henry VIII

    What do we think about Jay deciding not to do his Jive in the final? I think it could be important. He’s the most popular but it’s the wow dances that bring in the votes in the final. His Jive has the most YT views, but the next 3 highest are for Georgia. Her Jive and Charleston are a long way ahead of the rest.

    Especially if she ups her game and he fumbles. That wouldn’t have mattered so much before.

    4 highest YT views:

    1st Jay Jive 1,193,268
    2nd Georgia Jive 287,130
    3rd Georgia Charl 218,446
    4th Georgia Samba 183,762

    Figures taken this morning.

  • stoney

    Im pissed if im honest. The same sort of news in the x factor would lead to a massive drift. Strangely he is shortening today. I still believe there won’t be nearly enough floating voters to dislodge jay on Saturday, he leads the polls comfortably. And had a solid loyal support. He is the only person not to be in the dance off.
    But this is the big one for me and im really annoyed he isn’t doing the dance that would have guaranteed him the win.
    However like I said the market doesn’t appear to be worried about him not doing the jive.

    • Edie M

      I think it could potentially be a good thing. He has messed up in the past and the pressure of living up to the first time could really have got too much for him.

      • stoney

        Yeah he definitely couldn’t have topped the first one. But im puzzled as to why they would give him the quickstep. I imagine they are just trying to level the playing field a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me if he is running away with the phone vote.

        • Edie M

          two possibilitites: 1. they want it to be a bit more suspenseful/fairer as he’s the only one who hasn’t been in the bottom 2. he/they wanted a dance that he messed up the first time so he can better it this time and show how far he’s come rather than trying to do a repeat performance of a high scoring dance.

  • stoney

    Ive only been betting on strictly for the last 3 series. I backed caroline last year and im sure it was very close between her and frankie going into the final. Caroline was around 4/6 frankie 2/1.
    Surely jay should cruise it from here. They can’t want another female winner to pip jay to the post

  • Henry VIII

    I’m pissed about it too. I think he should have relaxed and just agreed to do it. Even if inferior to the first time it would still be his best.

    I’m hoping that Georgia just doesn’t have the magic of Kara Tointon. I think she lacks the chemistry of Jay and Aliona. Kara was infatuated with her partner whereas Georgia has a boyfriend and also her partner is cold anyway.

    • stoney

      When I first made my decision to back Jay it was on the basis that they would want a male winner this year. I never rated PA’s chances and his odds put me off straight away. I also saw Jay following the same road as Harry Judd especially having Alliona as his partner. So I can’t think why they would hamper Jay winning now. Wouldn’t make any sense. He is the most favoured contestant by a mile. He has been undermarked compared to others. I would say that only Georgia could snatch it from him now but it would take a big effort from the judges to swing the pendulum in her favour bearing in mind Jay is 1/5 for the win now.
      Nothing is certain but I have long considered Jay a more comfortable winner of strictly than Louisa in X factor.

  • Anyone compiling Strictly final polls? I remember Abbey Clancy being miles ahead in all the polls in her year, when pretty much everyone expected Susanna Reid to win.

  • stoney

    You guv poll in todays sun
    Who do you want to win
    Jay 37%
    Georgia 16%
    Kellie 14%
    Katie 8%
    Dont know 24%

    Jay the runaway leader on every poll and a best price 2/9
    Should be a formality from here even with the odd dances he’s doing. I do expect the show dance to be pretty special.

  • Cath

    Stoney, you may have been heartened by the costume discussions for the show dances on ITT this week. Vicky explained that Kelly had wanted a gold dress, but wasn’t allowed a completely gold dress ‘because of the colour palette through the show’. Moments later Vicky Gill revealed that Aliona would be wearing a blonde gold dress…… I wonder who the favoured couple might be? Even if not deliberate, it won’t hurt Jay to be dancing with the golden girl.

    • stoney

      Yes i had seen this story cath. Although I’d much rather they were dancing the jive than being given that preferential dress. But every little helps

  • Chelsea

    What do you guys think of the elimination markets for the next contestant to leave? To be honest I haven’t been following this year’s show but now X Factor/I’m a Celeb have finished I have no other TV shows left to bet on.

    Is Katie Derham to go next @ 1.67 a good punt in your humble opinions?

  • stoney

    Last night was a very hard watch for me. I didn’t have any cover in place but was quietly confident that they were doing everything in there power to level the playing field. My nerves were erased after jays paso. I knew from the comments that he has won it.
    Come on murray round of my best week ever in my gambling career.
    Louisa 11/2
    Jay 9/1
    Andy murray 8/1

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