BGT 2015 auditions discussion thread

Britain’s Got Talent 2015 kicked off last night, with Hull singer Calum Scott the early 6/1 market leader after being golden-buzzered by Simon Cowell. Three further acts from the first show entered bookies’ lists at low double-figure prices: 162-piece Welsh choir Cor Glanaethwy, roller-skating siblings Billy and Emily, and French ventriloquist Marc Metral with his dog Wendy. Please share your thoughts in the comments below as the audition shows unfold.

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20 comments to BGT 2015 auditions discussion thread

  • stoney

    Thanks mate.
    Am i the only one who thought that Calum Scott was seriously over hyped? Very similar to a lot of the current artists out there already. Not worth of a golden buzzer, yet from last year’s show we know the golden buzzer doesn’t equate to much anyway. I would not dream of backing him at his top price of 6 let alone the 4s on offer. Obviously he will drift as the weeks go by. The act that caught my fancy was the Welsh choir, who should be dead certs in an ew market unless anything similar comes up in the other auditions.

  • Tom Ato

    Calum Scott is part of a Maroon 5 tribute act, I thought he sounded a bit like Adam Levine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvH6hzFTGqA

    Simon’s had a brain fart, nothing special or unusal about this guy.

  • Chris Bellis

    He’s unusual for talent shows these days in that he can actually sing. However the brother sister contrivance made me sick. I still feel sick from a slight hangover as I had to drink more than my usual to get the nasty taste away. If the choir do “Myfanwy” and some proper Welsh stuff, they could do well. 4/1 on the bloke from Hull is unbelievable. Almost as bad as 8/1 on the favourite at the Grand National.

  • Andy

    Ysgol Glanaethwy got plenty on youtube.
    Very talented.

  • Andy

    OFF TOPIC, GENERAL ELECTION MARKETS.

    Over the last few months I have been paying close attention to general election polls and markets.
    one or two polls a day are released and the average UKIP percentage is around 12 or 13%, one Guardian poll last week had UKIP down to 7%.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
    If the polls are to be believed UKIP will take one or possibly 2 seats if they are lucky.

    I have also been paying close attention to online polls from all over the country and have found a completely different set of UKIP figures.
    For example.
    My local Sandwell express and star held a online poll for 2 days at the start of April and UKIP polled 53.42% of the vote.
    http://www.expressandstar.com/news/polls/2015/04/01/poll-if-the-general-election-was-taking-place-tomorrow-which-party-would-you-vote-for/
    Uni lad online poll has UKIP on 29%.
    http://www.unilad.co.uk/articles/general-election-2015-who-you-voting-for/
    In March a poll on the telegraph had the following results.
    Will you vote for UKIP at the general election.
    Yes 51%
    Maybe 11%
    No 38%
    MSN have a different poll most weeks and the current one
    Which party is likely to stick to there manifesto pledges.
    UKIP are on 37%
    http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/generalelection2015?ocid=mailsignoutmd
    I could go on and mention a dozen or more polls I have found online that have UKIP massively more popular than the 12 or 13% polls that are being released on a daily basis.
    Here is the good part.
    The markets are reflecting the media polls and I genuinely believe there is a bucket load of value in the markets at the moment.
    I am not going to give my reasons because this post would be too long so I will just list a few bets that could be profitable if anyone decides to take my advice.

    Constituency seats I expect to fall to UKIP.
    Boston and Skegness 5/4
    Castle point 11/8
    Clacton 1/9
    Great Grimsby 6/4
    Great Yarmouth 7/2
    Rochester and Strood 6/5
    Thanet South 4/6
    Thurrock 8/11.

    Possible outsiders.
    Cannock Chase 10/3
    Dudley North 3/1
    Hartlepool 6/1
    isle of wight 5/1
    Thanet North 5/2

    Longshots in with a shout.
    Mid Dorset 25/1
    Northampton South 25/1
    Norfolk Mid 20/1
    Rochford & Southend 12/1
    St Ives 20/1

    Strongly advised are (UKIP total seats)
    over 3.5 seats, 11/8 offered by Stan James.

    (No of constituencies in which UKIP will finish 2nd)
    P Power market, (over 100) is my tip at 5/2.

    I am heavily involved In Ladbrokes market
    UKIP vote percentage
    20-25% currently 14/1
    over 25% which is available at 20/1.
    I have backed both as I honestly think that UKIP will seriously surprise come May 8th.

    PS, my head is going in the cooker if UKIP falter next month.
    🙂
    would appreciate thoughts but please be civil as I know politics are a sensitive subject, I am just looking at it from punting aspect.

    • Andy

      Would like to add that the opinion polls where UKIP are polling 12 or 13% are maintained through telecommunications or person-to-person contact and there are usually under 2000 people polled.

      The online polls I mention are many times the opinion poll figures. Uni lad is currently over 70 thousand.

      • UnCalquera

        The problem is that the sample in online polls is not controlled, and therefore, not representative.

        For a poll to be reliable it is not only necessary to have a sufficient number of responses (statistics say that once you have 385 responses the result for the whole population will be within the +-5% margin 19 times out of 20), but also a representative sample, this is, the section of individuals interviewed must conform to the characteristics of the whole population (something poll companies check using age, gender, wealth and last time voting, basically, as variables).

        Online polls more than fulfil the quantitative requirements (but the difference once you ask more than 384 people is negligible) but are not representative of the population as a whole, only of the people which are most keen on the election or on voting online… as shown during the Scottish Independence Referendum, when online polls were way off the mark.

        I think you have taken quite of a risk (although betting is not only stats, you must also look for value, so…).

  • Andy

    Thanks Uncalquera
    I appreciate its a risk and it is my biggest punt ever but UKIP won me a few holidays last year with by-election and the European election wins, so I am sticking with them.
    I am involved in many markets but if they can manage 6 seats in total I will be swinging from the rafters, I feel very confident this will be achieved.

  • stoney

    How you feeling about ukips chances now andy? They seem to be losing there grip on the seats they were 50/50 on. Unfortunately doesn’t look like they will get more than 2 at this point

  • Did you guys see the Panorama programme with Nate Silver last night?Quite interesting. His team said they reckon there’s a 90% chance UKIP will get between 0-2 seats. They may not be right but may be worth listening to.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05t3flh

  • Martin

    Does anybody fancy their chances at Lorraine Bowen winning? I haven’t watched the series in so much detail, but in terms of media coverage/general reaction I haven’t seen the volume of discussion for any other acts as I have for her. Are there any serious contenders, and could a novelty act actually be allowed to win?

  • stoney

    Who’s everyone on for the outright then. Im thinking the light act win it. Yes it’s another foreign act but i actually found them more impressive than attraction with less competition to stop them. Apparently this year is going to involve random draws which should favour them as cowell would have less chance of throwing them under a bus if he didn’t want them winning

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