IACGMOOH betting discussion thread

Daniel and I aren’t watching I’m A Celebrity, but if you are, please do use this thread to discuss it – along with any other non-X Factor betting opportunities that take your fancy. For the record, at the time of posting Melanie Sykes is the favourite at odds of 3.5; of selected others, Gemma Collins – who thus far seems to have garnered the most column inches from what we’ve seen – trades at 13.0, and you can get 21.0 about XF alum Jake Quickenden.

215 comments to IACGMOOH betting discussion thread

  • Jessica Hamby

    Thanks for the thread Andrew.

    Melanie Syked looks good to me. A leader, organiser, responsibility taker and all round good sort so far. V acceptable to middle enfland and boddingtons drinkers.

    Carl Fogerty is the obvious alpha male, won six stars with snakes on his face.

    Gemma Collins is hilarious. If she can do well in a trial she could be a contender. Her problem will probably be her temper and her utterly unguarded tongue. Whether she ends up loved or hated is almost a coin toss.

    Jimmy Bullard’s trial was very funny. He was afraid of putting his head under the water.

    Of course two more celebs are yet to come. One is thought to be Edwina Currie and she can be the sand in anyone’s knickers.

    Arguements will happen and who handles them best will probably determine the winner. This lot look like they’re on their best behaviour right now. A few days of no food and that should change…..

  • Jessica Hamby

    Another thought, at first glance the women seem stronger personalities than the men.

    Mel Sykes, Vicky from ello, ello, ello, Gemma Collins and Kensra the playboy model all seem perfectly capable of holding their own. Of the men only Carl Fogerty really looks like one to be reckoned with, although Michael Burrk’s fires appear to be banked rather than extinguished.

    It was telling that on returning to camp after his trial, havingdecided to forego his stars to free someone from prison, the first person he turned to for approval was Mel Sykes.

  • Jessica Hamby

    And another thing

    *wags finger*

    there ‘s a lot of potential journeys here.

  • Snapped up the 9/2 on jimmy during last night’s show. You won’t see them odds again

    • Jessica Hamby

      He’s certainly looking good at the moment. Seems like an affable guy too.

      Vicki looks like she could cause problems though. The battles are going to start with the women.

      • I can’t really be bothered to watch all the episodes as I find it a bit too much every night. But I was surprised to see jimmy drift right out last night. And once I found out it was just for being a wimp, I snapped the odds up.

        • Jessica Hamby

          It’s hard work, I agree. It’s the evolution of the relationships, the masks and personalities that fascinate me, and the way it’s all condensed in the artificial environment. Two weeks in and they’ll all be bawling over letters from home even though they’ll have less than a week left.

          I agree that vulnerability is an advantage in there as far as winning public support is concerned. I thought he came across as humble, approachable, brave, kind, funny and charming. If he carries on like this, and falls out of his hammock again, he’ll have it in the bag. Bit too soon for me to get involved yet. I haven’t even looked at odds yet.

  • Henry VIII

    Does Jimmy Bullard have enough about him to maintain interest for 3 weeks? Craig Charles does. And Craig is bright and witty enough to be given the role of main narrator, like he was last night.

    • Will people forgive craig Charles for his previous drug addiction? Also I see him as someone likely to get depressed and possibly break down in the jungle.

      • Henry VIII

        I think people can forgive a weakness like drug addiction (I didn’t even know about it).

        He seems stable to me. But a little breakdown may help, as long as he’s not removed and sectioned like that comedian.

      • Jessica Hamby

        CC was also falsely accused of rape, arrested, tried and acquitted, hence he remark about being thrown in jail again.

        It’s true that early favouritism does not always transfer to victory. Jimmy could turn out to have a nasty side, pick the wrong team in a row or people might get bored of his schtick, but having said that comedians don’t have a great track record either. I guess there is a potential sort of redemptive journey for CC but his troubles are all in the past no. Personally I think all this is set up and the show doesn’t really start until the trouble-making newcomer(s) arrive.

        Will Edwina Currie be anither David van Day? One can only hope….

      • Jessica Hamby

        Jimmy Bullard could well follow in Joey Essex’s footsteps. Early popularity but somehow falters in the later stages. In a way Mel has it worse. At least Jimmy has a potential journey from fraidy-cat clown to competence and maturity. Mel seems already competent, calm, mature and managing to do all taht while still being the bedt looking woman in the camp (including the playboy model) and not being at all mumsy. Surrly the only way for her is to plateau which pretty much guarantees she won’t win.

  • Jessica Hamby

    I think lot of people did.

    I hate to say I told you so *crosses fingers* but I called Kian from early on.

    http://sofabet.com/2013/11/19/im-a-celebrity-strictly-and-off-topic-discussion-thread/?replytocom=34079#respond

    • Jessica Hamby

      Didn ‘t link to the post I swanted so I’ve cut and paste the relevant parts….

      Looking at past winners, the public tend to like people who are modest, genuine and kind. Joey is trying to go for that but I’m not sure he’s convincing enough. My suspicion is that, like Mark Wright from Towie a few years ago he will make it through to the final but will be pipped by the combined voting power of the “anyone but Joey” camp.

      For me, Kian is the best fit for the “modest, kind, genuine” requirements. So far he’s not shown a lot but he’s there enough to have made an impression. He also has the Westlife factor. He will already have a lot of fans. Mark Wright, also from TOWIE was beaten by Dougie Somebody from McFly – who also came across as fundamentally decent – modest, genuine and kind.
      *
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      *
      A quick footnote for people who wonder why I choose modesty, genuineness and kindness – here’s a list of recent winners and runners up.

      2012 Charley Brooks (W), Ashley Roberts (RU)
      2011 Dougie Poynter (W), Mark Wright (RU)
      2010 Stacey Solomon (W), Shaun Ryder (RU)

      • Jessica Hamby

        The whole post should be here.

        http://sofabet.com/2013/11/19/im-a-celebrity-strictly-and-off-topic-discussion-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-34079

        Re-reading it I would say that the campmates that most meet the modest, genuine and kind criteria at the moment are Mel, Jimmy and Nadia. Kendra, Vicky, Carl, Michael and Gemma all seem to be a bit lacking in a t least one area. I’m still on the fence about Crain and Tinchy.

        Obviously it’s still early days and all the contestants are in the “charm offensive” stage. The pecking order and the various roles are still being established and anyone / everyone can move from one list to another.

        In fact whether ot not those criteria are still relevant is moot. The zeitgeist has changed a lot in the last 6 months. We are not as kind a society as we used to be. How much that is a superficial change and how much a fundamental shift in attitudes may well affect the reasons why people chose to support one campmate over another.

        I have faith though. I think when it comes down to it, Jimmy’s sweetness and generosity will win out over Carl’s me first dynamism and bravery (however attractive it may be ) In the first world our unmet meeds tend to be more emotional and psychological than physical. We already have plenty of food and protection. What we lack is love. Jimmy seems to offer more of that than, say, Carl.

        • Henry VIII

          Important points in that post imo. Do you watch Corrie Jessica and if so how does Craig come across? The Wiki page “Lloyd Mullaney” makes him appear human and sympathetic.

          From the little I know of Craig I’d put him in the nice category, or at least he’s got enough wit about him to appear that way anyway.

          He’s appears much more intellegent than Jimmy.

          • Jessica Hamby

            I’m not a Corrie viewer. Having said that, Charlie Brooks played Janine Butcher and she still managed to win (and beat Ashely Roberts so I don’t think the nature of his Corrie character will make much difference.

    • I ignored several warnings about kian last year. That’s the stubborn in me lol. I don’t like covering bets unless i get a chance that’s too good to refuse. I could turn the whole x factor market Green right now but id see it as wasting money lol.

  • Last year i made a mint from the double elimination on a Friday night when most of the young people voting would not be in and watching.

    Joey and Amy were the young peoples demographic and i backed both for elimination … which they did (at a time when both were in the top 3 to win – Lucy was strong odds-on to go)

    So you do also have to take into account timing – 20+ consecutive days requires a lot of commitment or lack of a life (!) A lot of time-shifting takes place with CELEB and those who wach on time-shifters are typically not active voters on the nights in question.

    So come the final Friday – if there is a candidate remaining who appeals strongly to 18-30’s (and not predominately any other demographic) then oppose oppose oppose!

  • Montell

    Does anyone know if pinnaclesports offer betting on Eurovision or similar events?

    • Paolobow

      Hi Montell. I’ve not seen any Specials markets on there. Not sure they’d have the necessary liquidity. In any event I understand Pinnacle is moving out of the UK market v soon unfortunately.

  • Jessica Hamby

    GEMMA COLLINS HAS QUIT ALREADY!!!!

    Not a huge shock really. Shame from the comedy point of view though.

    Edwina Currie and Jake Quickenden, formerly of this (or at least the x factor) parish will be the late comers.

    Looking forward to Edwina and Vicky meeting. It’ll be like two wild animals . Whether they decide to attack or sniff each other’s bum is up in the air (and that’s an image that’s going to haunt me for the rest of the day).

  • Fudd

    Craig Charles’ brother has died. Rumours are circulating he has left camp and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if true. I just hope he and his family are coping with this. 🙁

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/535190238709415936

  • Betfair all over the place re Craig Charles – went out from 6 to 60 and then back into 12 now settled at 16.

    Think the thought is that if he stays in then sympathy votes might get him the victory … hence why you can potentially get “phree munee” if you think he will quit.

  • This could also go against him, I’m sure the average viewer will be wondering what the hell he’s still doing in there.

  • Yes really sad. Surprised he didn’t leave as soon as he was told. I would have

  • Jessica Hamby

    The show was overshadowed by the loss of two big characters last night.

    First Gemma Collins went. She was obviously in trouble from the moment she went in. She started crying sat in the helicopter before it took off from the hotel and after being let out of the stationery machine she wondered, still weeping, how anyone could “think that was normal”. I don’t know whether I feel pity or contempt for Gemma. A bit of both I suppose. If moods could be men, hers would be Tarzan. They swung and swung and swung. They probably even swang. I lost count of the number of epiphanys she had (should that be epiphanies?) where she proudly announced either to camera or her bemused and exhausted campmates that she was now ready to take on this challenge and would lead them all to happiness. And then 10 minutes later she would be crying again and reminding them all about how dreadful it was.

    Gemma, apparently, went thorough hell. The funny thing is that she didn’t do any trials, didn’t encounter and creepy-crawlies or snakes or lizards or fish guts. She didn’t have to eat any weird stuff. Frankly she hardly had to eat anything at all except perhaps her words and a little bit of porridge.

    I think hell, for Gemma, is being bored. She was left to sit alone with her own thoughts. She had no distractions, no tv, no caffeine or alcohol or sugar or transfats or all the other muck we eat that alters our brain chemistry. She had no affairs to talk about, no other people’s lives to dabble in, no-one to conspire in her illusion that she’s clever and significant and interesting. She was left alone with her own thoughts, and it was hell.

    Craig, in the short time he had, showed that he could have been a real contender. He dealt with Gemma honestly, trying to support her and then becoming increasingly frustrated as she tried to force everyone around her to synchronise their thoughts and feelings with her. When she was released from the jail his relief was palpable. He and Nadia actually started, insofar as it was possible in that environment, to enjoy themselves a little. Nadia ate an apple with the focus and precision of a brain surgeon performing at the peak of his powers. Finally they went into the bunker of doom or whatever it was and as they were showered with the obligatory insects and surrounded by rats, Craig picked nine stars out of the muck and still managed to comfort the panicking Nadia. Well played sir. I expect to see him come back in a year or two, and will probably take an early punt on him when he does.

    • I managed to get a 2/1 top up on Jimmy as the news broke

      • Jessica Hamby

        And so to the events of last night.

        Ant and Dec are determined to squeeze every last drop of humour out of Tinchy’s tiny stature. Sometimes I think it’s funny – I mean he’s so small I think I could keep him in my pocket – other times I’m not so sure.

        Anyway, Tinchy did a trial. It was one of those with a bunch of rooms and various unpleasant things plus a star in each one. Tinchy was a bit of a fraidy cat but he did ok. He won 7 stars and then exchanged them to free someone from the jail rather than winning food for the camp. Gemma was freed, did her usual Me Me Me schtick and then left. So that was four stars wasted. I’m not a huge can of Carl but when he said bugger the captives, gimme the food I had some sympathy. Still, Craig won nine meals later so all that was sorted, and then he left too.

        Kendra and Jimmy were voted to do the first eating trial of the show. These are surely what everyone tunes in for. There’s something quite delightful about watching those we presume are more fortunate than ourselves squirming and puking as they force down witchity grubs, animal genitalia and fermenting eggs.

        I think the public picked them as punishment. I know Jimmy has some fans here but as yet I’m not a believer, certainly not in the “risk my dolla” sense. He’s funny and a weird, endearing combination of meek and upfront, but there’s something about him that doesn’t ring quite right for me. I don’t think he’s a winner.

        Anyway, when Nadia came in from the jail there was the usual fuss about who would sleep where. Jimmy volunteered Tinchy’s bed and after some embarrassed verbal sparring it became clear that Tinchy didn’t want to swap. Kendra then became enraged with Tinchy, told him he didn’t speak properly in a way that could potentially provoke accusations of racial bias and threatened to have a row which didn’t materialise. Nadia didn’t care. She just wanted a bed. It all looked a bit ugly for Kendra particularly but also made Jimmy into a stirrer rather than a joker. The public spoke. Jimmy and Kendra will be eating kangaroo cock tonight.

        Jimmy’s a bit of a lick bum. He looks to others for approval. He’s done it with Mel and now he’s doing it with Carl. That means that there’s a potential journey for the taking of course, but I think Jimmy is a pack animal rather than a standout candidate and I think what we’ve seen of him so far is pretty much all he’s got to offer.

        It’s easier at this stage to mention the people I think are unlikely to win rather than the other way around.

        I think Jimmy, Vicky, Carl and Kendra are the more unlikely – although they may well end up being the cool kids (or the mean girls) of the show.

        Michael is neutral for me at the moment. I don’t see him being nasty and he is potentially a father figure but he’s not contributed a great deal yet apart from a burgeoning relationship with Tinchy. If that grows it could become one of the best unlikely friendships IAC has even given us. Nadia is similar. She was patient and supportive with Gemma and didn’t just sidestep the potential Kendra / Tinchy confrontation but pretty much ignored it (which made it look even worse for Kendra since it was all meant to be about sistahood with Nadia). She also has promise but is not well known so will have to develop a fan base (Ashley Roberts had a similar problem – she probably would have won if she’d been better known before she started).

        Tinchy has been a bit put upon so he’s looking good and Mel continues to shine.

        There’s been no mention of drating anyone in to replace Gemma or Craig but it may happen. Edwina Currie and Jake Quickenden are to come. I hope Jake shows a bit more character than he did on x factor. He’s good eye candy (although bleurg on his tattoos) but seemed to have a space to rent sign hanging on his head. Please prove me wrong Jake. Edwina needs to take charge like others need air. Opinionated and strong willed she may cause conflict or start a gang, but then again most of the others might just not care enough to argue.

        Early days yet. All still up in the air.

    • Jessica Hamby

      Note: The helicopter was stationary. It was not made of paper.

  • Any way don’t panick jake quickendens going in

  • Henry VIII

    🙁 back to square -1. Who wins now?

  • Jessica Hamby

    A point for those who are new to the site.

    I blog the show for my own entertainment and amusement as much as anything else. I like to opportunity to do a bit of writing / tv criticism where I have a ready made audience. My opinions are my own and NOT meant as tips or a guide to how to bet, more as a starting point for your own thoughts and for discussion here in the comments.

    The regular posters here are a fairly robust lot with a diverse set of outlooks and opinions. I suspect that on any given topic where 3 sofabetters are met together you could probably find at least 5 different views, all of which are right.

    Remember, if you are inspired to place a few quid on something, it’s your own decision and your own responsibility, win or lose.

  • ok – my take on those in the jungle so far ..

    The public will like … Mel; Nadia; Tinchy;

    I think Nadia and Tinchy are growers on the public, whereas Mel is the darling right now but can she stay the course?
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    The public will dislike .. Carl; Kendra.

    Kendara is not a likeable personality full stop, but she will have lost a lot of fence-sitters with the Tinchy/Nadia issue

    Carl is very self-centered and also not very likeable. However, he will have an army of fans – how many watch IACGMOOH I’m uncertain… don’t think he will win any new fans though

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    The public will be currently uncertain of …. Jimmy; Michael; Vicki.

    Jimmy blows hot and cold – he is good TV and TPTB will want to keep him in for a long time, so expect a certain amount of favorable editing. But in the final straight when it gets down to 5 or less, he could be found wanting.

    Michael could be this seasons David Emmanuel; The father figure; generally nice but maybe not enough to win it. He has made a couple of ill advised asides aleady though so TPTB have plenty of ammo to string him up if they desire.

    Vicki has been a peripheral figure to date and if she continues in that vein she could make the final five – worth a cover at long odds – cant see any real reason for her to go out early, but then again, can;t see any real reason to vote to keep her in either!
    .
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    ….. and then of course there are the two newcomers that the public have not seen yet.

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    As for the betting, I am a heavy winner on Nadia (picked up lots of 25/1) and reasonable on Mel (9/1). I covered today on Tinchy 16/1) If Nadia can shorten into 6s or 7s then i will be sorted on this contest as I can layoff on all the other genuine contenders.

    I am level on Jimmy and Michael

    I have big red numbers on Carl, Vicki, Kendra (although it is easy to cover the latter two right now).

    Jake concerns me – I am red on him (and Edwina too) but have missed the boat as he is now 14/1 or less. Edwina’s track record suggests she would struggle – but then look at how well Carol Thatcher did !?!

    • Hmmm doesn’t sound like too much excitement in your betting book there. Your practically on every runner!

      • Hi Stoney – not sure how you have reached that conclusion (practically on every runner) ? I may have commented on everyone but am only significantly “on” Nadia (25/1), Mel (9/1) and Tinchy (16/1

        Mel’s reduced odds since Day 1 allowed me to lay off on Jimmy and Michael so i do not lose if they win (but i won’t win either)

        If Nadia’s odds reduce significantly over the next few days then i will also be able to lay off on the other genuine contenders – or at least who i perceive to be the genuine contenders (and that list at present is Carl, Jake, Edwina but after seeing the latter two “in action” I might rule one or both out – we will see!)

        However, as for excitement? Well I get exited when i can green up on everyone with a couple of runners giving me a four figure profit! Sure that doesn’t provide the adrenalin/nervousness of potentially losing a large sum, but more than excited to have some guaranteed money just before Christmas!

        • Fair play if your bringing4 figure profits.

        • Jessica Hamby

          Sounds like a very nice book from here. I definitely rate Mel and Tinchy. I have no idea what Jake can bring to the party I think Edwina will be there until the later stages. Whatever she does she’ll be a big character and now she no longer has to please anyone but herself I expect her to have a lot of fun whatever she does.

  • Jessica Hamby

    After the things I’ve said, reading a little about Edwina I think she may turn out to be a runner.

  • Jessica Hamby

    More on Edwina:

    She admitted viewers are likely to vote for her to take on the most unpleasant tasks to punish her, adding: ‘They will probably think I’m a mini Margaret Thatcher’.

    In 2012, Mrs Currie criticised Tory MP Nadine Dorries, who was temporarily suspended by her party when she took part in I’m A Celebrity.

    Mrs Dorries has now described her as a hypocrite for taking part despite disparaging the show in the past.

    But Mrs Currie brushed off the remark, saying: ‘I make it up as I go along. What did I say? That it was ritual humiliation? Well, that’s right. It is. And now I’m doing it.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/celebrity/article-2841834/Gemma-Collins-flounces-jungle-just-three-days-ll-pocket-40-000.html

    She also said she was a mad old bat whom her political opponents were likely to want to stay and her political friends were likely to want out of there as soon as possible.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Edwina is available at 33/1 and Tinchy at 12s. I think Edwina’s worth it each way. I regret missing the Tinchy train when he was at 16s but I still think that’s a good price for a small investment. Nadia is at 12s too but she’s not for me. Sadly it’s now very difficult to cover Mel and her current demeanour seems genuine. She doesn’t look likely to snap halfway through. There are none of the microexpressions or snide comments you’d usually find with someone who’s putting on a front.

    Kendra is already 9/4 for the first elimination. She doesn’t seem like a nice girl at all and I don’t think she grasped that shewas selected for the task as a sign of public disapproval. If she carries on like this being sent for task after task and showing some mettle will be her only hope of survival. Her comments about how she didn’t want the newcomers really sets her up to be a bit of a cow and viewers will be watching for it and intepreting everything she does through that filter.

    • Jessica Hamby

      On reflection I’m not entering the outright market atm. Events may change things but right now I think Mel’s favouritism is justified but the price is too short.

  • Jessica Hamby

    So Kendra gdts picked for a second trial. Can’t say I’m surprised. I know she ate all that nasty stuff but there’s something about her that is a bit spikey.

    To be pretty much unknown and manage to be voted for two trials in a row in the first week is quite impressive. Helen Flanagan, Gillian McKeith, Sinitta, Katie Price…. will Kendra join that august company?

    The gloss started to come off Mel a bit last night. She clearly has some control issues that came out with Vicky in the cooking and with Michael in the task. Wait till she gets a load of Edwina!!!

    The charm offensive phase is coming to a close.

  • Hmmm … poor night in the betting for Tinchy and Nadia – barely featured and as a result have drifted … Tinchy 20/1 Nadia 14/1.

    I did not really see what the fuss was about the Mel/Michael task but i agree that her early favouritism among the female participants could wane. Her 3/1 still looks fair but no better.

    This was the first time this series i have watched while monitoring odds and i was surprised at the massive fluctuations.

    Jimmy swung wildly tonight – back and forth from 5/4 to 2/1 and back again before settling at 13/8 – still plenty short enough at this stage as people may tire of his antics long before the end. However it did suggest that trading him “in play” may prove to be rewarding.

    Carl also touched 28/1 at one point, which is way too long at this stage.

    I’m still happy with my book overall I think, but it definitely isn’t looking quite as good as last night!

  • I honestly do believe craig leaving has handed the win to jimmy. And I’m shocked to see jakes odds so short. Not only will it take a miracle for anyone to join late and go on to win it (would be a first for this show? ) but he’s just not in the same league personality wise Rylan who was able to win celeb bb.

    • Jessica Hamby

      Christopher Biggins came in late in 2007 and won. Jenny Eclair came in late one year and finished third, with the other latecomer finishing fourth.

      Jimmy is the character of the series so far and he did well during the eating challenge. I wonder if he’ll get a bit boring though. There is still a long way to go.

      I’m going to back Edwina later. She’s 28-1 so I may go each way. We’ve not seen anything of her so far but from what I’ve seen and heard elsewhere she can both charm the birds of the trees and be a right gobby cow, a combination that will probably suit the show. She was 33/1 (only at Coral) an hour ago. Damn. Missed it.

      I don’t think Mel is going to be able to keep it up. The remarks about Michael during the test made her sound bitchy. He wasn’t doing anything other than discussing the possibilities but as soon as he said anything she acted like she had to change her mind and then resented him for it. It was actually slightly uncomfortable viewing and made me think that behind that beautiful, serene exterior there’s a seriously scary monster. I wouldn’t want to be there when the facade cracks. I bet she’s a puncher, not a hair puller.

      Nadia just isn’t well known enough for me. She’s got twice as much work to do as anyone else and she’s not yet interesting enough to feature much.

      Tinchy also faded into the background last night but his deadpan joke about not eating the chocolate until they’ve had their dinner was a little gem and a few more of those will raise his profile considerably – especially if they’re misunderstood. Not yet tempted to back him though.

      I have no idea why Jake Quickenden is third favourite at 10/1. Apart from looking good we have no idea what he has to offer. Mind you Jimmy is currently 6/4 and Mel is 11/4 so he’s still hardly in contention.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Saw a note in an article in the DM today that tptb are looking for some new people to come in to replace Gemma and Craig. Imo those two are big losses because Gemma would certainly create argy-bargy and force people to deal with unpleasant situations and Craig was a potential winner.

    If new people do come in then obviously they will change the camp dynamic and there mere appearance may annoy those already there. Kendra, for one, appears to be very territorial.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Odds update.

    Edwina is now back out to 33/1 and Jake has slipped to 12/1.

    I wonder what causes these changes.

  • Jimmy is gonna be odds on across the board tomorrow at this rate. Won’t get my hopes up after last year though!

  • Jessica Hamby

    Really enjoying today’s show. Not sure what there is to be learned from it though.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Edwina’s and Jake’s arrival have made things more interesting but have if anything made Jimmy a stronger favourite. He’s making the show.

    First eviction? I think Vicky looks likely at the moment. If she wasn’t there you’d hardly notice.

    • When I first said to my misses on the opening night I think he’ll win she said no way. She now ll thinks he will, and shes not into football or gambling, but shes a good indication of how quickly people have got to like him

  • Jessica Hamby

    Mr Hamby loves him and Carl together. He’s a biker so he respcts Carl but he loves Jimmy.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Two excellent trials yesterday (although sadly they both got plenty of food for the camp).

    Mel was awesome in Hell’s Kitchen and Jake was also very good in the Creature Cube.

    Jimmy is still the obvious winner and to miss out he’ll have to show a nasty side or fall down and break his neck.

    Tinchy seems even more pointless than Vicky at the moment, and Michael doesn’t do much more. At the moment I’m still leaning towards Vicky for first eviction becuase I think Tinchy and Michael have higher current profiles and because women tend to be eliminated first more than men. I’m not on it though and probably won’t bother.

    For next elim Vicky is currently trading at 2/1 with Kendra second favourite at 5/1. I think Kendra has a few miles left in her yet after being nominated for 3 trials in a row. She may well be up again for the next one. Michael is joint third with Edwina at 7s.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Quick mention of 3 standout moments for me:

    Tinchy going to do his trial, shakes hands with Ant & Dec and says “Man like Ant! Man like Dec!”.

    Edwina, when Jake suggests recruiting Kendra to the CIA so she doesn’t have to do any more trials (which gives them a better chance of getting some food): “That’s the kindest thing I’ve ever seen.”

    Holy cow! I know the tories are a mean-spirited bunch but really?.

    Jimmy calling Jake a prick.

    Jake’s a bit creepy sometimes, when he talks about looking at the women in their bikinis. It’s all a bit too much. He’s pretty but nowhere near as smart or as pretty as he thinks he is. I think he’ll plod along for a while and then get dumped in a sudden and unexpected elimination. I shall be looking out for the Friday factor The Ferret mentioned (http://sofabet.com/2014/11/17/iachmooh-betting-discussion-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-48730).

  • Jessica Hamby

    Holy Hell!!!! Did anyone just see Kendra kick off with Edwina. Unbelievable. Edwina knowingly provoked that buand poor Kendra didn’t have a clue what was going on. Beforr she knew it she was out of her depth, caught by a rip tife and half a mile out to sea.

    There’s something very disingenuous about the way Edwina introduces herself as an MP with that humble l, eyes down, obsequious leer.

    No dear. You were health secretary. A senior member of the cabinet, just behind chncellor and the foreign and home secretaries, up there with education, trade & industry and the like. And youfucked the Prine Minister while you were doing it.

    You don’t get to do that withiut being a hard, sly, manipulative bitch.

    Still, Edwina’s ensured she’ll survive the next eviction. She’s the most intrlligent person in there by a country mile. Might be time to drop a few quid on at 80/1. Edwina’s been picking tactical fights all her life. She even picked her moment to get sacked from the cabinet, telling a newspaper about the level of salmonella in british eggs and becoming more popular after she ws sacked than she ever was before it.

    Final touch, Kendra gets public punishment by being picked for the next trial.

    This is not a tip, more of a heads up. If you like a long odds punt have a nibble on Edwina for outright. She’s 80/1 at Corals at the moment. I can’t promise you a win but you’ll have a hell of a ride. She’s a formidable intelligence at the peak of her mental powers and she’s bored. This is a popularity contest and Edwina is a professional politician.

    The game’s afoot.

  • Jessica Hamby

    If you want to see it, catch it on itv+1 at about 11:30. It’s too foul mouthed to be on the catch up show tomorrow.

  • Jessica Hamby

    And at 80/1 an each way shout might be even more tempting. Edwina isn’t nice rhe way Kian, Dougie, Stacey, Biggins et al are nice, so she less likely to win, but she’s got to be a great shput for a place.

    She’s 17/2 for a top 3 place on betfair.

  • had a little nibble at 190/1 to keep my book nicely balanced! There is a lot of value out there if you can see past Jimmy and Mel … the great thing is that with just about everyone touching three figures it is very easy to keep everything greened up … had 50p on Vicki at 620/1 for example and also had Michael at 190/1 and Tinchy at 180/1

  • I still think Nadia might be a slow burner- topped up at 60/1 on her

  • Come on guys jimmy has got this sewn up now

    • Jessica Hamby

      Jimmy is a lovely guy but Edwina is a professional. If she has a weak spot she will find it and pick and pick and pick at it. How he deals with it and whether or not the public spot it could well define the course of the show.

      Do not underestimate her because she’s a fat, 68 year old woman. There’s a crocodile in the rabbit hutch, she’s bored and she’s hungry. She’ll pick them off one by one and it’ll be carnage in thre before she’s stopped. Every one of those public votes is an election, Edwina Currie’s last election. Do you seriously not think she’s going to use all her knowledge and experience to win an election? And now she’s got eight in a row?

      Stoney, in this matter complacency is not your friend. Your man Jimmy is facing a deadly enemy. She’s without conscience, she’s ruthless,she’s experienced and this is the last time in her life she will get to ply her trade.

      This contest is far from over.

      😀

  • he might well have Stoney – he is a certain finalist and and i am keeping the right side of him but with a long way to go he is plenty short enough – fortunately i got a decent stake on him on day one when he drifted because he was a bit of a wuss on the first task.

    I see four realistic winners:- Jimmy, Mel, Nadia and Carl, and there is plenty of value in the last two right now. If they hang around their price will shorten and there will be the opportunity to close out a profit.

    Jimmy is currently 4th best result for me – but I do monitor during the live shows as his price does vary and I am topping up whenever he goes above Evens (2.0).

  • Jessica Hamby

    In the cold light of day I think I was probably over the top about Edwina. It’s ikely she was bored and a bit nastyrather than Machiavellian and plotting.

  • First eviction tomorrow, was tempted to go for Edwina but think her argument with Kendra will have won her some support.
    Instead I have taken the 7s on Micheal. Who will be voting to save him? What has he actually done or been shown doing since he got on there? Could be good value

  • dunno why there is no elimination betting on Betfair 🙁

  • Jessica Hamby

    I think it’s Vikcy; Who’s going to vote for her? She’s done little or nothing and her fan base is probably furthest in the past. Tinchy’s done very little too mind. I’m not sure who’s going to vote for him either. He doesn’t seem to fit in there at all. You might have thought that he and Jake, being the youngest and both musicians, would have something in common but Jake is just a fanny-rat (copyright Jim Davison) and much more interested in female attention.

    He might be one to watch out for on a Friday eviction (copyright Thé Ferret).

    I still think Edwina might slip into top three. There’s a long way to go and these controversial characters can sometimes do quite well if they manage to make a few friends before the end. Admittedly part of the attraction is also the price but I am starting to quite like these long odds punts. I know there’s less certainty but the risk is so small as to be non-existent and if they come off it’s going to make me feel uber smug.

  • Jessica Hamby

    After Michael baring his soul and Tinchy on the rescue mission it’s hard to see anyone but Vicky getting the boot. All the others are making an impression.

    Next one will be harder to call.

  • Andy

    Jake’s getting a lot of screen time and his commitment to the trials likely to gain him support, there is no doubt he is giving 100% to everything that comes his way.
    Jimmy on the other hand…………

    • Jake will get a large female vote but he’s not gonna get much from non x factor fans. Hell do well to finish top 3

      • Jessica Hamby

        Jakeas good fun and he’s cute but I’m not sure he’ll get as many female votes as you think. He’s someone it’s easy to be ambivalent about.

        Kendra’s interesting. She’s keeping going to the trials even if she’s not doing well. She’s an interesting personality. She’s getting a lot of focus almost inadvertantly (or is she a reality tv genius?). She could sneak into the top 3 if she starts being a bit nicer.

        It’ll change again when the public start voting for eliminations and the campmates choose who does the trials. They’ll want the people who are going to get them food and people who’ve not done one will suddenly start volunteering. That can change the way people are viewed.

      • Andy

        Hi Stoney
        I think even neutral viewers will appreciate effort in trials, its what the show is all about, and as the contestant are eliminated we are likely to see more from Jake and Jimmy, and if Jake goes hell for leather in an effort to feed the camp whilst Jimmy is left cowering on boxes I wouldn’t be surprised to see that effort rewarded, Jimmy is my biggest Green by a street but we all know what can happen in these shows, I have sent Jake Green as well just in case.

  • Andy

    5 of the last 6 years have ended on day 21.
    Last year ended on day 22.
    My guess would be day 21 this year which would be Sunday 7th Dec, and I will be on a flight so will miss the final
    🙁

  • Jessica Hamby

    I know it’s irrational but I kind of want to vote for Tinchy just because he says “man like Ant” and “man like Dec” instead of “Hi”. I wish he’d say it to the others. I’d love to see how they react.

    Michael would probably say it back like responses at high mass. The others would probably be totally non-plussed.

  • David

    I feel like the tide is turning on Kendra, is it just me or is anyone else starting to warm to her and find her rather amusing in the last couple of days. Her odds have halved to around 50-1 now. Long shot, very long, but I think there’s some potential, definitely a value bet given she has been an integral part of the show so far. She has been trending on Twitter a lot too so is receiving a lot of attention albeit not so pleasant.

    • Jessica Hamby

      Kendra’s got an awful lot of baggage to overcome. I’ve spoken to a few girls who think she’s little more than a prostitute after she talked about living in the Playboy mansion and doing the nasty with Hugh Hefner, when she was 18 and he was in his 70s.

      I don’t think she’s disliked as much as she was but it’ll be a long stretch for her to become popular enough to win, plus she’s american. Ashley Roberts and Martina Navratilova couldn’t win and they are both a million times more likeable than Kendra.

  • ahhhh – see my posts from earlier ^^^ Jimmy nearly quit yesterday after suffering a massive panic attack after being caught in the storm and feeling unsafe. TPTB had to use great persuasion to keep him in – including the 10 meal reward. Some punters are obviously speculating that he will quit hence driving his price out.

  • Surely jakes rapidly shortening odds are playing a part in the drift. Just seen that some camp mates will get immunity from eviction. Could throw a spanner into the works for early elimination betting. Hopefully vicki gets immunity. Would put the cat amongst the pigeons

    • Jessica Hamby

      They divided the camp into two teams (boys v girls) and they have to do challenges against one another. Winning team gets to pick a member of the losing team to join them. Team with the most members all get immunity from eviction at first vote.

      Girls lost the first challenge and boys chose Mel. Depends on what the next challenge is, of course, but at first glance this makes things even tougher for Vicky. She’s less likely to be picked by the boys than the younger women (Kendra and Nadia) and could well end up in an eviction vote against just one other person. Unless her side wins todays and tomorrows challenges I think she’s toast.

  • Kendra is increasingly being called out as an actor playing the “reality TV Game” engineering air time etc. They were very critical of her on ITV2 yesterday and that has carried through to some of today’s media … apparently she is used to critters – her Dad is from Costa Rica! So it was no surprise that she got 10 out of 10….. All in all it appears she is “playing the game” but may have been busted!

    • Jessica Hamby

      It always strikes me a strange when someone in a competition is condemned for playing a game. Isn’t that what they’re supposed to be doing?

  • Jessica Hamby

    Jake’s now come in to 10/3 and displaced Mel as second favourite.

    Vicky has dropped from evens to 7/4.

    Given the potential for a twist with immunity still up for grabs I don’t think that’s worth a large amount.

  • Tempted to top up on jimmy at 5/4. Although maybe there is a bit more of a drift yet to come

  • Is Jimmy the new Andrea? He’s Getting annoying now? Michael in from 140 to 25? Dark horse?

    • I feel they are over doing it a bit but still think he’s making the series

    • Gavster

      Agree with the annoying tag. This time last year, Joey was starting to drift in favour of Kian. I’ve had Jimmy a 4-figure red since day 1. As the show develops, new characters come to the fore.

      • yeah – i’m a little annoyed that i have kept Jimmy neutral so far as it means i have wasted a lot of profit. big winner for me is (and always has been) Nadia – but she needs more exposure … she has done naff all for the last 5 days! Come on TPTB … give us a shower scene!!!

    • Jessica Hamby

      Interesting about Michael. He fits the Kian criteria I posted about. Vicky winning the trial and picking him may well have upset the eviction applecart. Glad I didn’t touch her although I think my £2 on Edwina is probably a lost cause.

      I don’t think Jimmy will win it anymore. He’s definitely becoming annoying.

      • Kian had the mum votes (westlife) and the irish vote sewn up. What are Micheals big voting areas likely to be? The grey is one but that’s not enough surely

        • Jessica Hamby

          Christopher Biggins won it. David Emmanuel was second last year. I think you’re overestimating the importance of tribalism in voting. It’s a strightforward popularity contest. People vote for the person they like (or dislike least) and want to win.

          • I think jimmy is still a fair price based on the odds. But not a dead cert as he seemed this time last week. I expect a few producer tricks to come into play to help him out.

          • Jessica Hamby

            Why would the producers help him out? They don’t want him to leave but they don’t want any of them to leace. I don’t think they care who wins. All they want is a good show.

          • Apparently he’s good friends with one of the producers

        • Jessica Hamby

          And then there was Joe Pasquale and Phil Wossname (the cricketer). They didn’t have an obvious demographic. Phil’s media work came after the show. He wasn’t well known outside cricket before it.

          By contrast just about everyone recognises Michael Buerk. I’m not saying he’ll win it but there’s no reason why he can’t. Rapping with Tinchy, listening to Kendra, being independent in his thinking…. He’s coming across very well at the moment. Very steady and still interesting. A nice contrast to Jimmy’s mercurial mood swings.

          • rather frustratingly, he was my first big play – but i allowed his little spat with Mel to upset my applecart and i allowed him to turn red. Got him back on track now but wish i had had more on at the longer odds when they were available (got £2 at 140; £2 at 130 and £1 at 120 🙁 )

            My theory for next year (first year i have done betting on this event) is up until the first elimination take as much as you can of the 3 figure odds – build a book of long shots that you can then use to lay against the more likely winners in the final week.

            Best prices this year (prices actually taken by people on Betfair)

            Jimmy 6.0 (Best i got was 5.6)
            Jake 22 (Best i got was 12.5)
            Mel 15.5 (best i got was 7.4)
            Foggy 60 (Best I got was 50)
            Michael 190 (Best I got was 140)
            Nadia 60 (Best i got was 34)
            Kendra 140 (Best I got was 110)
            Tinchy 400 (<– YES !!! that was me !!)
            Edwina 990 (best i got was 310)
            Vicki 620 (best i got was 480

            Yes I have backed them all at one time or another – that's my modus operandi – get everyone green if possible) … I'm a statistical investor, not a gambler!

            Currently 8 of the 10 are green – with just Kendra, and Tinchy still red.

  • Jessica Hamby

    To me that’s an astoniidhing strategy and a brilliant way of doing it. The plus in is that in this show it’s rarely the favourite who wins. I’m not sure ut ever has been. So you can get some huge returns from a tiny outlay.

    I’vr learned so much this year it’s incredible. I thought I was being canny but I now see that my strategy is still mostly educated guesswork, which is what every bog standard punter is doing. If I do this again I’m going to look at it at lot more.

    Thanks Thé Ferret.

  • Jessica Hamby

    ANDREW / DANIEL: Can we have a link for this theead on the front page please?

  • Jessica Hamby

    Michael was very funny at the start of the show.

    If Jimmy’s arguement with Jake is the one way verbal assault it looked like in the trailer this could be bad for stoney.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Edwina being pretty awesome in the trial.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Holy cow Kendra is boring.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Omfg!!! This challenge is genius.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Jimmy’s throwing it away.

    Mel’s falling apart and not very likeable and Jimmy and Jake are tearing each other apart.

    This can’t be good for any of them.

  • David

    Edwina price crash! If Edwina wins my family will be having turkey for Christmas this year. Last year we couldn’t afford turkey so we had chicken nuggets instead.

    • Andy

      Edwina done well in the trials but boy is she is so annoying, I’m beginning to think Michael could cause the upset if he gets a bit more screen time, if he can get any where near the final he could be in with a shout. I have a nice healthy Green on Michael and Edwina, Jimmy looking like yet another early favourite to fall by the wayside. Jake new favourite on Betfair.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Michael is at 10/1 which seems generous. Edwina is at 25/1. I have the princely sum of £2 on her at 80/1 but much as I’d like her to I don’t think she’ll win although she was excellent last night.

    Jimmy is 5/4 favourite and Jake is 5/2. I think Jimmy’s got a lot of work to do to reair the damage he did himself last night. He lost his likeability over a stupid throwaway comment. If the wombats lose tonight’s challenge and he doesn’t have immunity he could be out tonight.

    Odds on that are currently 50/1, as they are on Mel. Right now, with immunity stoll up for gravs and Mel not being particularly liked by the other women, those two are the only value I can see in the eviction market. I’m staying out of it though. There’s no guarantee they’ll even be up for the public vote.

  • Jimmy is in big big trouble – newspapers already using the “Bullard Bully” tag – he is a dead man walking.

    Really hope that those on this forum who were so bullish towards him have managed to cove themselves.

    Jake now favourite in many places. Ideal Friday night elimination – although i think his demo is now wider than the 18-25 market, and the “bullarding” can only have helped him.

    Foggy could be the biggest beneficiary of Bullard’s self-combustion as he will attract the same demo.

  • big big green for me now on Edwina, Michael and Nadia (who desperately desperately needs screen time!!).

    For me Michael and Edwina are absolute shoo-ins for final 5. Michael = David Emmanuel, but is Edwina the new Carol Thatcher? Don’t think so tbh but I cannot call the winner from here – so key is taking the value whereever it can be found.

    A high profile elimination for Bullard would be great for my book – take the 40% of Jimmy out and it is a price crash!

  • No covers in place at the moment. Worrying times for jimmy it seems

  • Jessica Hamby

    For me the contenders at the moment are Jake, Michael and Edwina with Carl the closest to them. Jimmy is a walking corpse, Mel is not very likeable, Tinchy is invisible and Nadia not much better. Vicky showed up in a challenge but apart from her chats with Michael and obvious antipathy to Mel isn’t doing much more than Nadia.

    Forgot Kendra. She’s getting a lot of attention but it’s the wrong kind. She’s often annoying and she’s thought to be disingenuous.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Bottling that trial is surely the final nail in Jimmy’s coffin.

    Classic moment at the end of the trial when he turns to Mel who actually lasted the full time and said “Don’t worry. It’s only rats”.

    Nadia winning is welcome news for Thé Ferret.

  • Jessica Hamby

    OMFG!!!! Kendra won her round. Surely Jimmy’s going home first.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Foggy, Jimmy, Mel and Tinchy up.

    Tincy 1/3
    Carl 6/1
    Jimmy 8/1
    Mel 10/1

    Funny. I’d have said Carl was the safest of that lot. Nothing to tempt me there. Not getting involved.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Edwina’s “fight them on the beaches” speech a bit of a moment. I think her popularity is growing.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Jake is now clear favourite at 6/4. Jimmy is at 4/1 with Mel.

    For elimination Tinchy remains 1/3, Carl has come in a bit to 11/2, Jimmy has joined Mel on 10/1. Still nothing there to entice me. If it isn’t Tinchy (and he’s done very little so it probably will be) then I have no idea who it’ll be.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Also Edwina’s ahead of Michael and Foggy at 12/1 for the win.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Jake’s come in to 7/5 and Edwina to 10/1 for the win.

    Jimmy’s now 9/1 for first elimination and Mel’s gone out to 12/1. Interesting….. I know Jimmy is not popular. People have been very unimpressed by him these last few days. Typical footballer is the nicest thing I’ve heard said about him. If he survives it will probably be because no-one remembers Tinchy is there.

  • Heisenberg

    Bullard. Not cool. Hope he goes.

    http://goo.gl/4JCrqB

  • Heisenberg

    Reminder of Jimmy’s banter:

  • green on all in elimination except melanie … just getting her green now.

    Tinchy should go … but it wont be as big a shock as the odds suggest if he doesnt.

    Foggy is my biggest win of the four

  • Jessica Hamby

    Carl’s gone out to 10/1 while Jimmy is at 9/1.

    Tinchy remains 1/3 despite an awesome performance in the trial so far.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Looking bad for Tinchy, now at 2/7.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Tinchy back out to 1/3 while Jimmy & Carl are together on 8/1. Mel should be safe on 12/1.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Tinchy’s lengthening and Jimmy’s getting shorter. This could be a disastrous two days for stoney.

  • ok – lots of playing around has left me level on 3 and 4-figure green on Foggy …. could not get the final lay bet on so all eggs in one basket … but cannot lost anything … fingers crossed!

  • Jessica Hamby

    And the favourite falls at the first hurdle. The camp goes into shock.

  • Amazing how 10 minutes can turn into favouritism into elimination. Oh well

    • Jessica Hamby

      His humiliating failure in the tombs trial didn’t help.

    • Jessica Hamby

      I don’t see Mel as a winner unless she goes thtough more sufgering. Women find her difficult to like. Plus the way she was so happy to leace the galahs and acted like they were certs to lose will not have gone unnoticed by Vicky, eho doesn’t like her. Mel’s maternal niceness is a front and the mask keeps slipping.

      Kendra needs to be less american reality star to be a contender. She has some good moments but she’s just too annoying.

  • Gavster

    All green book secured, now to trade a winner.

  • Heisenberg

    Thanks for the banter Jimmy – I took you to go at 10/1, not because I thought you’d be eliminated but rather I was compelled to oppose what you represented during your kamikaze primetime outburst.

    The weekend’s Stereo Kicks disappointment is now a distant memory. Also doubled him up with Andrea at smaller stakes for combined odds of 32/1 – suddenly I’ve become fond of Italian lyrics, gold paint and faun horns.

    Surely that’s the quickest favourite to elimination turnaround in reality TV history?

  • ok … my thoughts in the immediate aftermath

    Jake (11/8) … nice lad, huge vote swing after Bullard-gate … too short now though – could be a victim of the Friday night double elimination (but has a wide demo now)

    Mel (5/2) … strong woman but finding it tough right now – poor value given that she could get could get a bit niggly and have an outburst or two. One to keep on the right side of though.

    Edwina (7/1) … guaranteed finalist; entertaining, ballsy and could be another Carol Thatcher. Feel she may lose out in the final but in with a real shout

    Carl (10/1) .. will get some immediate vote transference from Jimmy, but has proved a bit of a damp squib so far tbh. Next 48 hours critical for him, will he fill the jimmy shaped void? Potential but ultimately personality may let him down.

    Michael (12/1) … really coming to the fore now … joins Edwina as a finalist in my book and is a potential winner

    Nadia (33/1) … one of the likely favourites for next elimination if she continues to impersonate a plank. Needs to up her game or she wont make the weekend

    Kendra (66/1) … you only need one ballsy female, and it ain’t Kendra … not leaving just yet but will not make the final

    Vicky (100/1) … dark horse … could get a bit further yet, but like Nadia, needs to come to the fore a little more

    Tinchy (40/1) … his rap with Michael will gain him votes – was he intimidated by Jimmy? Like Carl, next 48 hours interesting – if he does nto step up then he will be leaving soon

    Summary – Although Jake and Mel are potential winners, I,m happy being on the right side of Michael and Edwina

    Just my viewpoint? Let’s hear yours! It’s good to hear different perspectives

    • Jessica Hamby

      I think the camp will be different now Jimmy’s gone and until new characters come forward it’ll be hard to call. Foggy’s clearly in morning. Vicky’s being a bit more active. Kendra is a natural attention seeker, as is Jake. Tbh I don’t expect much from Nadia but Tinchy seems lile he might have more to offer. It’ll be interesting to see is Jake becomes arrogant withiut Jimmy to keep his ego in check.

  • David

    If Edwinner wins I win the most I have ever won in my life by a mile. Her erratic personality has resulted in a lot of airtime and hopefully that continues. I have just also backed Mel because I think she’s too wise to let her mask slip and there are only 6 days left. She has presented prime time TV for a long time so she will have a lot of people rooting for her. She has been solid in all aspects so far on the show.

    Jake’s odds are worrying but I have decided not to cover him because they are just too short.

  • Heisenberg

    Jimmy’s exit has changed everything and the markets will probably need a day or two to settle again as a new dynamic grows in camp. I agree with Jessica – watching the different characters adapting to this will be interesting, and I also see Jake becoming more annoying rather than entertaining as he attempts to embrace the opportunity created by Jimmy’s absence.

    Foggy has lost his double-act appeal, Jimmy was his currency in the show and there isn’t enough time left to repair the damage or enough charisma to establish himself as a solo act.

    Edwina is a definite threat for the final, but she’s unpredictably divisive and the Les Dennis talking to yourself routine could wear thin very quickly if she overdoes it.

    Mel seems to have producer favour, which should continue to secure her generous screen time, plus she’s good value in the trials – another threat for the final.

    Nadia and Vicky are peripheral players and I’d be very surprised to see them still around next weekend. Kendra has the American handicap, and has nowhere near the likability of compatriot, George Takei who could only manage third place.

    I do, however, like the way that Michael and Tinchy have bonded, as well as the cool demeanour they both share. So often the quiet ones reach the final – Jimmy White and Fatima Whitbread are just a couple that spring to mind.

    The show’s history suggests we can expect a male/female combo final three and I would shortlist Edwina, Mel, Michael and Tinchy as likely ‘stay the course’ candidates.

    Now that Michael has inherited Paul Akister’s ‘white Jay Z’ moniker and not forgetting that he and Tinchy were the first pair to meet at their poolside champagne reception, there could be more quality entertainment on the way from this odd couple. As such, I was surprised to find them priced at 150/1 to be the final 2 – call me crazy, but I like that bet.

  • Dodged a bullet there. Could not lay her on the outright at 50/1 so backed her big time to go tonight… Decent profit without damaging the outright book too much

  • Jessica Hamby

    Vicky and Edwina looking increasinly strong. Foghy and Mel looking weaker. Kendra establishing herself a significant player in the camp but destined for mid-table. Jake restarting creepy, flirting. Probably good for him that Nadia is gone because Kendra is martied and Mel doesn’t want him. Great effort from Michael in the trial and Tinchy showing more with Jimmy gone.

    I honestly don’t think Mel, Foggy or Kendra can win. Probably not Tinchy either.

    It’ll be interesting to see who’s in the final four. They get the waterslide challenge. If Jake is there can he do what Kian dif last year? Maybe with three pensioners? That would surely be a winning play.

    • Henry VIII

      Mel or Foggy could imo.

      • Jessica Hamby

        In my opinion Mel is too stroppy. She gets the hump over trivial things, especially if she doesn’t get her own way.

        Carl, yesterday, getting all bossy over who does the trials will alienate people. We get that he’s hungry but so are others. It’s a shared, once in a lifetime experience for all of them and I don’t think the public will sympathise with his hunger.

        In terms of the prime physical specimens Jake will win over either of them. He’s just more likeable, and now Nadia has gone he’s unlikely to be seen as a lech which was, imo, his biggest weakness.

        I think he’s rightfully the favourite at the moment but Michael and Vicky did well in the trial yesterday and there’s still a way to go. Also Edwina is clearly a game old burd and her little monologue about Kendra may have struck a chord. Entertaining as Kendra is to watch I think she’s irritate the hell out of anyone to live with.

      • Jessica Hamby

        Also Foggy’s been beaten in trials by Jake and Edwina. He started out strongly but he’s taken a battering recently. He aint King of the Jungle.

  • Jessica Hamby

    I’ve a feeling Mel could be in some danger tonight. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Edwina and Vicky subtley wind her up. Mel is thin-skinned and quite volatile.

    If not, Tinchy and Vicky are the obvious ones in danger, as is Kendra. The thing about Kendra though is that although she is probably the most actively unpopular of the people left in there, she’s always involved and so may well get more support than those who are more likeable but less visible.

    At the moment Edwina, Jake and Michael look like the top three to me, although I wouldn’t be that surprised to see Kendra or Carl slip in there instead of one of them.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Foggy started at 33/1, dropped to 28/1 and now is out at 50/1. He’ll have to kill a campmate to go tonight.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Mel came in from 25/1 to 20/1 early doors and is not sat there. Kendra’s getting involved again. Danger for Tinchy and Vicky?

    I love this show.

  • green on Tinchy, Vicky and Kendra. Red on Michael/Edwina

    will be laying Mel when the books re-open — she is combusting. (clips shown after votes closed so safe tonight i think)

  • Vicki suddenly crashed from 2.7 to 1.6 in a split second 5 mins before lines closed ….. insider trading ???

  • shit shit shit — backed today to lay tomorrow — was sitting on £1800 profit … .all gone in a flash 🙁

    Only lost £110 in real money due to backing him at high odds – but the lost profit is a disaster 🙁

  • WTF happened there – other than his selfie piece to camera where he said he wanted to leave – he had another strong night I thought. Calm, organised, friendly

  • overall that has probably halved my total profit from the series – and if edwina goes tomorrow then i am only gonna make a couple of hundred for the hours of effort 🙁

    He only had to last one more day – my lay point was 8.0 and he was already into 10 … another day would have seen him go through my target.

    Grrrr … and i have been light on Carl for last few days thinking him to be a tad boring. … looks like he could be the new favourite tomorrow morning.

    • Andy

      I’m still struggling to understand that one, That’s reality.
      A good run on the greyhounds tonight has softened the blow.
      I need to get my head around who is left very quickly to get out of trouble with this series, Jake & Foggy turned slight Green but Mel or Tinchy would bring more pain, IAC been very kind to me for the last 5 years.

  • fortunately i am greened up, but this ranges from as little as £17 for Kendra (!!) to my remaining 4-figure profit on Edwina.

    I need to lay Edwina as i cannto see her winning – although feel she is a finalist … waiting for her to drop below 3/1 really.

    Decision point for me today is Carl. am unable to watch tonight so i have to decide whether to back him or lay him!! (the new price gives laying opportunities – but he had a great day yesterday and looks to be the chief beneficiary of Jimmy going)

    But ultimately the elimination of Michael has left me wondering whether i am reading this series wrong or not. Mathematics has got me green – but intuition and a good read will determine the level of greenness – not sure i have got that this year, or maybe this is just me being pessimistic after one reversal!

  • Jessica Hamby

    I wonder if the argy over Mel ended u gaining support for her. After all, it’s all about motivating votes.

    • Andy

      Mel’s got a long history with ITV and I wouldn’t be surprised if she continues to get favourable editing.
      Michael went home because that is what he asked for at the start of last nights show, I think people respected his wishes and didn’t vote for him, if he had begged for votes he would most likely still be in camp.
      I am leaning towards Jake for the win but confidence has taken a bashing after last night so keeping stakes to a minimum.
      It’s rare occasions like last night that I thank bookies for their restrictions.

  • Natasha

    I haven’t been watching I’m a celeb that closely this year but want to place a bet and i’m thinking from what I have seen so far it’s between Foggy and Jake?

  • don’t forget to keep on the right side of Jake in the second elimination tonight.

    If they play it as normal there is just a small window for voting, as opposed to 24 hours, so only those viewing live will participate.

    Historically this means that acts with their main demo being 18-25 fare badly. (as those tend to go out on friday nights – last year we lost Joey Essex in this slot for example when he, like Jake now, was a warm favourite)

    I’m not 100% convinced that Jake’s demo is solely within this band, but he will undoubtedly lose some followers and therefore will be at heightened risk.

  • Natasha

    That’s a very good point you make there. Im hoping he stays as have him and foggy as my hefty ‘name the finalists’ bet

    Tinchy and edwina are worrying me slightly though as feel they could easily sneak in there

    • yes – unsure what Tinchy’s Demo is … in theory a reduced version of Jakes?

      Foggy has all the motorsport fans; Edwina has “people of a certain age” and Mel has “daytime TV watchers (mainly women) plus men of a certain age 😉 ”

      It is too tight to call right now. Having laid off all of my Mel bets I am now backing her again at 7/1.

      Foggy is a guaranteed finalist but I’m still not sure i see him as a winner.

      Gut feel has told me all along that Edwina would make it to the final … but having lost Michael and Vicky, the older vote is clearly going astray rapidly.

      Mel would be a shoo in to win if she had not been so irritable at regular intervals … she could still win if she becomes Miss Sweetie-Pie for the last three days.

      And so to Tinchy! Bearing the bearer of a £2 @ 400/1 wager, personal bragging rights makes me want him to win. However I have laid much of that off in the intervening week!

      So who wins? I dont really care – gonna aim to equalise them all for the same profit regardless (not typically the best policy as it reduces overall profit – but in this case I think its for the best)

  • David

    Layed a lot of Edwina and put it on Mel. Mel has drifted since yesterday but I think at 6/1 she is a value bet as I think that she will still have a lot of people voting for her should she make the final given her long stint on prime time TV. Her minor disagreements may have put some people off but I think the way she has walked away or bitten her tongue to avoid full on conflict will go in her favour. She hasn’t gone ape shit yet at anyone yet and here’s hoping she doesn’t lose it and spoil her chances with only a few days to go.

  • Heisenberg

    Massive difference in odds here, Mel/Tinchy both to go tonight are 12/1 (Sky), 14/1 (Hill) and 16/1 (Lads).

    Now check the odds at BetFred: 100/1!

  • Natasha

    Is it another double eviction tonight? My Foggy and Jake name the finalists bet is looking good however, if it is a double eviction tonight then I can’t see both women going. Anyone else have any thoughts on this one? I have a gut feeling Edwina and Foggy could both go tonight : (

  • interesting twist on the double elimination …last year they eliminated one early and then had a flash vote for the other (bye bye Joey) …. changed this year so you did not have to be watching live to vote someone off …. That was a massive plus point for Jake.

    As for the double elim …. high street bookies paid out at dead-heat, while Betfair got the actual result from ITV (Kendra finished bottom) and paid out on her.

    Result for me as i was red on Tinchy on Betfair in the elimination markets … so i got paid out on both 🙂

  • Jessica Hamby

    It’s the 4 person über trial today. That could make or break someone during the show. Mel will be amazonian. How will Edwina do? Will she need protecting or rescuing? I think it’s a good moment to wait and see.

  • Natasha

    Single elimination tonight on i’m a celeb

    Strange as they usually only have 2 finalists?

  • Natasha

    As there are 3 finalists this year, I am assuming that my ‘name the finalists’ bet (which consists of 2 celebrities) will still stand as long as the combination I have chosen take 1st and 2nd place yeh?

  • David

    Just balanced my book so that I don’t make a loss tonight. My only profit will be from a Mel victory, odds suggest otherwise but I still think there will be a core support for Mel, I think she may get 2nd place.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Probably a 3 way eating trial to finish the series so it’s all up for grabs. They were all pretty good on the last one but if anyone flinches it could be damaging.

  • relatively decent profit on all three – not as good as it could have been – Michael hurt me badly and I was not able to fully unwind my Edwina position.

    As a result I can be neutral when i say that Jake would be a bad winner for the competition imho.

    Yes, he is a really nice bloke, but he is not a celebrity. Foggy and Mel have long careers in the public eye behind them – for a contestant only famous for reality TV to then win a reality TV competition would mark a new nadir for me.

    So my financially unbiased hat goes on a Foggy v Mel final showdown please

  • David

    I am also feeling that it will be Foggy and Mel final two as I think their fans are more hardcore compared to Jake’s.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Jake awesome in the first trial.

  • stoney

    Can we have a new one please guys

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