BBUK, Summer sport discussion thread

Summer is a quieter time for TV betting, but the Sofabet community has a few things to get stuck into, notably Big Brother, back on Channel 5. The power trip theme and an interesting set of housemates holds plenty of promise. Otherwise, some of you may be dipping into the likes of the World Cup and Wimbledon. Do continue to let us know your thoughts below.

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120 comments to BBUK, Summer sport discussion thread

  • Jessica Hamby

    Thanks for the thread Daniel.

    Hi Andy. I’m not tempted at 11/10 because I prefer small sums at longer odds. I do think Tamara is on her way out though. It’s funny. Usually an argumentative, sexually hypocritical professional victim exuding a faint but distinct whiff of homophobia like Danielle would be a shoo-in for eviction. That she isn’t shows clearly what the public feel, not so much about her or even about Tamara, but about the dynamics of the house in general and the ruling clique in particular. A vote to evict Tamara is a way to strike a blow at Helen and Pauline and their acolytes.

    Tamara does not come across as endearing. She seems fawning, spineless and shallow, in Big Brother speak she is “fake”, but she is surely less dislikeable than Danielle. I expect Danielle to stay and Tanara to go on friday though, as long as Danielle doesn’t start ranting about sex or equal marriage and keeps her head down and her mouth shut.

    It’s still early to predict a winner but right now I’m looling at Kim, Chris, Jale, Matthew and Christopher with Ashleigh as a possible if she manages a “journey”.

    I’ll try to do a longer, more general post in the next few days but work is taking a lot of time at the moment.

    Hello to all the reality fans. Please join the thread and share your thoughts with us.

    All the usual provisos about gambling and taking advice.

  • Natasha

    Jale is the one housemate I can see winning at this moment in time. Going by the things she has said about her personal thoughts and feelings about herself and the way she has reacted to all the shit she has been given by everyone so far, she is the one that is going to go on a huge journey. It’s a similar situation to what Luke A was in in BB 2012. All the housemates were against him from the start for no apparent reason and gave him shit whilst the whole time he remained calm and didn’t give them the reaction they all wanted. He was in a house full of backstabbing bitches. He was up for nomination almost every week. He just wanted to be accepted by everyone and fortunately, it was the viewing public that did because they chose him as their winner, a deserving one at that.

    Jale for me this year.

  • Jessica Hamby

    One thing to bear in mind is that TPTB seem to want Tamara to stay. They’re pushing the fauxmance with Winston and hardly mentioning that she is facing the public vote. They seem to be trying to portray it as a 2 way contest between Jale and Danielle (which Danielle will lose). That may have an effect, but when I last looked at the polls most of them were 67% evicting Tamara, 26% Danielle and 7% Jale, or thereabouts.

    Of course they could have changed now but even so it’s a considerable margin.

  • Jessica Hamby

    The killer nomination definitely gives her an opportunity, and coupled with her VT about being difficult to get along with and having been kicked out of houses (houseshares?) or something it does potentially have a redemptive quality about it.

    Playing devil’s advocate I would say that Chris has that sort of potential too, although obviously he won’t be carrying the burden of knowing that he’s up every week, however in a weird way I think that might be quite liberating. Jale no longer has to worry about what her housemates think of her – she’s going to be up whether they like her or not – so in a way she is totally free.

    I think a couple of others have winning potential too. I’m reluctant to commit myself to anyone yet but I agree she has a lot of potential. She’s definitely on my list.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Latest odds:
    Tamara 8/15
    Danielle 15/8
    Jale 40/1

    I wish there were odds on chants of “Get Pauline Out”.

  • Andy

    I am wondering why the phone lines haven’t reopened after Jale was called safe, its making me wonder if TPTB have Danielle where they want her and do not wish to risk the result turning around.

    • Cath

      He’s hilarious! But his humor is so dry I don’t think it will help him much in the house (as we’ve already seen – his VT jokes feel flat on Pauline).

  • Jessica Hamby

    I suspect it was a comprehensive Tamara spanking. Great show though. Sadly can’t see your youtube link here at work (streaming media is not allowed) so I’ll have a look tomorrow.

    Well spotted with the Tamara odds. Hope you filled your boots.

  • Jessica Hamby

    So Tamara’s gone. Frankly I doubt if even potential paramour Winston will notice. She was one of those housemates who will become known as “who?” before her own series is finished.

    She should have been a dream reality contestant, big breasts, blonde hair, allegedly intelligent. Sadly it all fell apart quite quickly. Early on the housemates were discussing penis size. In trying to explain to Danielle what was meant by “a shower not a grower” Tamara used the word “flaccid”. Winston, clearly as thick as mince, said “blonde girl used big word. Hulk Smash!” (I’m paraphrasing). Tamara should have curled her lip in a sneer to shame Elvis. Instead she blushed, looked at the ground and giggled while the others laughed at her. I nearly climbed in the wardrobe with a bottle of vodka and a Stanley knife there and then.

    She wanted to be the busty blonde with brains. She turned out to be the bimbo blonde with no backbone. She claimed she’s “not a bumlicker” in her interview with Emma. Clearly self-knowledge is not a quality the producers look for when auditioning for this show. Her fake laugh and uncomfortable body language when talking with (aka being programmed by) Pauline and Helen was so artifical and uncomfortable looking I found myself fake smiling in sympathy. She didn’t contribute much more than strength in numbers to the Mean Team. I doubt if even they will notice that she’s gone come this time tomorrow.

    As for Winston and the showmance… Bleurgh! Thank god we won’t have to look at that all summer.
    Winston is an odd looking fellow. Sometimes I think he looks like John Major on steroids. Sometimes I think a mad scientist just shaved an oran utang and gave it John Major’s head. Perhaps it was his finely chiselled torso that moistened Edwina Currie’s gusset (after all, the ex-PM is hardly in great demand these days so a summer gig on Big Brother might be what he needs). Anyway, there’s not much else to be said about him. You can compare him to rocks or a bag of spanners if you like but after a while even that game gets boring. Poor lad. He cooked her his spag bog and snogged her in the garden and then, just like that, his whole BB raison d’etre got evicted.
    Never mind Winston, Helen’s going to need a narrative that doesn’t involve threatening people soon, although if you don’t get a move on the handsome but somehow charmless Ash might beat you to it.
    Ash is a male model. He is very handsome. He looks like Sean Bean, but without the muscle tone, the rogueish smile or the air of danger – in other words the really good bits. Instead of the devilish glint he has a sort of smug, entitled, “I know you want me” leer. It makes me want to ignore him but that’s not hard becuase so far he doesn’t seem to do anything. He thinks he’s an alpha male but all he did was win the genetic lottery. Alpha’s don’t just happen Ash. Their defining characteristic, even more than success, is the amount of work they put in to make their dreams into reality.
    (Sadly at this point I’ve got more work and I finish at 4:30 so I’ll try and finish this later JH.)

  • Jessica Hamby

    As for Winston and the showmance… Bleurgh! Thank god we won’t have to look at that all summer.
    Winston is an odd looking fellow. Sometimes I think he looks like John Major on steroids. Sometimes I think a mad scientist just shaved an oran utang and gave it John Major’s head. Perhaps it was his finely chiselled torso that moistened Edwina Currie’s gusset (after all, the ex-PM is hardly in great demand these days so a summer gig on Big Brother might be what he needs). Anyway, there’s not much else to be said about him. You can compare him to rocks or a bag of spanners if you like but after a while even that game gets boring. Poor lad. He cooked her his spag bog and snogged her in the garden and then, just like that, his whole BB raison d’etre got evicted.
    Never mind Winston, Helen’s going to need a narrative that doesn’t involve threatening people soon, although if you don’t get a move on the handsome but somehow charmless Ash might beat you to it.
    Ash is a male model. He is very handsome. He looks like Sean Bean, but without the muscle tone, the rogueish smile or the air of danger – in other words the really good bits. Instead of the devilish glint he has a sort of smug, entitled, “I know you want me” leer. It makes me want to ignore him but that’s not hard becuase so far he doesn’t seem to do anything. He thinks he’s an alpha male but all he did was win the genetic lottery. Alpha’s don’t just happen Ash. Their defining characteristic, even more than success, is the amount of work they put in to make their dreams into reality.
    (Sadly at this point I’ve got more work and I finish at 4:30 so I’ll try and finish this later JH.)

  • Jessica Hamby

    Also, to avoid any doubt or uncertainty, barring a sudden rule change by TPTB Pauline will be evicted next Friday. I suggest you get on it as soon as odds are announced.

  • Jessica Hamby

    I’m on Chris for the win. Smartest and most genuine guy in there by miles. Took 3/1 which is the best available atm.

    Top girl and places are more challenging. I’m not a huge fan of Jale although I think she’ll be there for a few weeks yet. Once Pauline’s gone and she’s not being victimised I suspect she will be a much less sympathetic character.

    I’d like to review each show and housemate but I’m too busy and it’s all too horrible in there at the moment.

    Pauline to go on Friday.

  • Jessica Hamby

    And there it is. Winston each way as a saver. He showed integrity and independence in his attitude to Jale.

    Top female is tough though. I don’t like any of women in there.

  • David

    I agree, I’ve been watching BB from the very start but this year it has been hard to watch because the level of nastiness combined with stupidity in there is off the scale and it is making me angry lol. It really does resemble a school playground.

    The way it is in there at the moment I’d agree with Chris, Winston and perhaps Jale as the winner, unless somone else grows a pair of balls at some point which I highly doubt.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Winston comes across as fundamentally decent, a qualty that is rare in the house. Thank God the awful Tamara got the boot. I think she was a two-faced user. Christopher has good qualities but he’s annoying and naive. Mark knows something’s not right but Pauline bought him off with the £5k, the classic psychopath/narcissist’s loanshark trick. She gave him something which costs her very little (in this case it cost her nothing) and demands in return something that will cost him much, much more (in this case his loyalty which also means his dignity and any chance of winning).

    Despite her continued outbursts I still think Helen has a chance at top girl. She’s in till the final and I don’t think that will change. They need a villain to stick to the end or else you end up with something like last year’s borefest. The voters tend to like feisty women so a moment of genuine remorse at the right time could easily see her as top girl, especially since Jale’s main attraction is her victim status. Danielle is not out of it yet. She could still have a ‘journey’, contrived and artificial though it may be. Ashleigh may sneak it by virtue of not being noticed and therefore being the least offensive. Kimberly may work out how to activate her emotion chip (although she seems to have sold her soul to the Mean Team so it might be too late for that to make a difference).

    Pauline and Toya haven’t a hope in hell.

    Obviously Jale is favourite at the moment but I haven’t invested because I think she’s volatile. Trying to find the identity of the power housemate when the smart thing for her to do would be to confuse, to obfuscate and to protect the person who has nominated her enemy and then brazenly taking a lip gloss that didn’t belong to her at a time when anyone with a brain would be as pure and sweet as a new born lanb to cement their status as hard done by, these are signs to me that at some point she’ll do or say something stupid and piss the voters off. Since she’s up every week and in a sense relying on their forbearance I think that will be terminal.

    I think top girl will become clearer when Pauline goes and they feel less controlled.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Also what did you make of Steven tonig

  • Jessica Hamby

    Also what did you make of Steven tonight. On digital spy someone described him as the bastard child of Jeremy Clarkson and Alan Partridge. The combination of cringing and laughter made me feel I was going to turn inside out.

    Seriously. Dude. Get a fucking grip.

  • Jessica Hamby

    A few thimgs struck me this morning.

    1 It feels like at least week 5 but it’s only week 2.

    2 When Pauline goes alliances and groups will shift and it will be in some ways like a restart. I expect Toya to make a play for power but she’ll need backing and she won’t get it.

    3 As I said during CBB “Events dear boy, events”.

    Kimberly is currently making an alluance with Helen. She also took down Marlon after he told her to “open your legs and do it slowly” while he was watching her exercise. She’s already bossing an ad hoc group of herself, Ashleigh and Danielle. She’s 14/1 for the win.

    I don’t see her as a winner. Yet.

    We like our winners to be “everywoman” or “everyman”, flawed, disadvantaged and put upon survivors rather than flawless heros we can pedestalise. But top 3? Top girl?

    Hell yeah.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Rewatching the lipstick incident it looks like Jale did it on purpose to get herself attacked and generate sympathy.

    Smart move.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Something for those interested in psychology. I thought of it after re-watching Steven’s embarassing plays for power at the dining table and in the diary room.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

    • Cath

      Thanks for the link Jessica, interesting stuff. And good to read you views on things as they unfold. I agree that it feels much later in the series than week 2 and the nastiness does seem worse than ever, thanks in no small part to Helen, Pauline and Toya. I hope that Pauline going would result in everyone acting a bit nicer to one another.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Thanks Cath.

    Jale is the one who has me really confused. Sometimes I think she’s a winner – like when she was laughing in the diary room yesterday. Is there anyone who saw that who wasn’t laughing with her? But there’s something about her that makeas me doubt. I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop (even though I have no idea what that means :)). I believe Chris and Winston will be consistent in their behaviour. I’m just not sure about Jale. Maybe because this holding back and not “kicking off” is new territory for her so she’s not sure about it herself.

    She’s actually playing a great game at the moment and I have enough left in my budget to put something on her but I’ll leave it a couple of days just to see if she can keep it up.

    • Cath

      With Jale I think there is the risk that she needs the unfair treatment to make her come across well when she handles it so well. We know Helen is staying to the end, so that may continue throughout, but I think it will lesson as the series guess on, particularly if Pauline leaves.

  • Henry VIII

    We’ve never before had an atrocious person like Helen with immunity. They’re normally out in the first month. When she calms down and gets to like the people she now hates do we have a redemption, a journey candidate?

    • Jessica Hamby

      I think Helen, Steven, Pauline and Toya are beyond redemption already unless one of them collapses in a near hysterical breakdown of self-loathing and guilt. Biblical proportions. Fire, flood, famine, pestilence. The whole nine yards.

      They’ve given themselves the identity of the nasty ones. Once you get a reputation, good or bad, it’s very hard to change even if you change.

      I think unless it was backed up by weeks of kindness and generosity the viewers would find it very hard to believe Helrn could change. She’s living up to all the stereotypes of the hard-faced kiss and tell prostitute they could ask for.

      Of course anything’s possible and kudos to her if she can do it but I don’t see it. Plus even if she does, Jale will still beat her in any vote imo. Viewers want to see her punished.

    • Jessica Hamby

      Another point on this:

      Before she went into the house Helrn said she was doing it to show people there is more to her than the kiss and tell hooker who had a threesome with Wayne Rooney (although God knows why- her friends and neighbours will never forget and noone else cares).

      What we are seeing is Helrn trying to win people over. In her head she’s already on Redemption Road.

      😮

    • Jessica Hamby

      More on this. Apologies if I’m boring y’all. Helen spent at least some of her childhood in care and was pregnant and had her son at 15. It seems likely that the hostile, antagonistic, conflict-driven environment that she’s creating is probably what she’s used to. It reminds her of home. A warm, mutually supportive and nurturing environment would probably make her feel uncomfortable.

      There’s her Redemption Road. If she could acknowledge some of that and start to change her story I think the public would believe in it.

    • Jessica Hamby

      And she went on the game at age 19 because she needed money to look after her son.

      No wonder she’s so bloody angry. I am crying as I type this.

    • Henry VIII

      I’m sure most viewers will have dramatically softened their opinion on Danielle since she’s mellowed. And Danielle hasn’t changed as a person, she’s just changed her behaviour. So we need to allow flexibility in our personal feelings in analysing BB or this site just becomes like the Digital Spy forum.

      Ayslene, former BB housemate, lived with drug dealers and at the start of BB was gangsterish and cold. About half way through she said to BB in the D. Room something like “these are nice people, I’ve never lived with nice people”.

      It’s not a good example because she was never atrocious like Helen. But this is a new experience for Helen. Helen quickly became friends with Danielle after they swore at each other. I repeat we’ve never seen someone like Helen get immunity to the final. The housemates have find a way to live together and they have to live to BB’s rules. No choice. The antisocial people that remain in the house have to adapt.

      • Andy

        ”So we need to allow flexibility in our personal feelings in analysing BB”
        Excellent advice
        Really wished I had read this before I watched BB12 when Aaron Allard-Morgan had me grinding my teeth most nights.
        Grrrrrrrrrr.

      • Jessica Hamby

        I actually found the comment about flexibility in personal feelings quite irritating. The reasn there is a betting market is that there is no certainty. No one knows what the result will be and there is certain method of analysis. BB and IACGMOOH are emotion based shows. The entertainment and the outcomes are driven by the emotions of the contestants and the viewers. I rely on my own emotional responses to understand what is happening and to predict the changes in the house. That comes from having a definite core rather than a vacillating insecurity.

        Can I change my opinion? Certainly. But that has nothing to do with emotional flexibility. If I wasn’t moved to tears by Helen’s background I wouldn’t be able to understand her or predict her.

        By all means you may have all the flexbilty you wish. I shall keep my solid moral core and my wweak and feeble emotion driven analysis and doubtless lose all my money.

    • Andy

      A journey candidate indeed.

  • Jessica Hamby

    It’s all gone a bit medieval in there. Mark is reading tea-leaves for signs and augurs. Pauline’s nocturnal exercises look like she’s trying to invoke forbidden gods. Jale has become the village sin eater.

    Jale eats those sins with gusto. I’m surprised she hasn’t asked for ketchup. Each time Toya viciously withholds a “good morning” or Helen uses her special Slugsworth attack, Jales inwardly smiles and hopes for seconds. They’re winning it for her and she knows it.

    Most of them have forgotten they’re on a game show. It’s not about the money anymore, it’s about ego. I once read that when humans have nothing important to worry about they attach disproportionate importance to trivial things not out of choice but becauseof something in the survival instincts in the brain. It was offered as an explanation for why one young person stabbed another to death over a pair of trainers. Or the existence of the Kardashians. I can’t remember which.

    I wonder if the haterz have any recollection why they hate Jale? I doubt it. It looks like it’s become a habit, as every day as brushing teeth. For those who don’t remember, Pauline didn’t like her VT and Jale “rolled her eyes”.

    Bitch.

    With the possible exception of Steven, who seems to have relegated himself to the role of boil on Pauline’s arse, Helen is playing the worst game of anyone in there. In one of his comics Neil Gaiman has a character say that it takes the same amount of effort to be an asshole as it does to be nice but that ultimately nice is more fun. Clearly Helen missed the memo. She seems not to have any strategy at all now that her presence in the final is assured. It beggars belief that she is choosing to adopt an artificial personality. Who would choose to act like that? So I have to conclude that she is being “her real self”. Blimey! Everyday life with Helen must be a delight.

    Marlon continues to be living proof that you can’t learn how to pick up girls by reading stuff on the internet.

    Steven, you’re not a big character. You’re the comic relief.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Interestingly they’re doing a Bit On The Psych tonight instead of a bit on the Side. They think it’s going a bit bonkers too.

  • Jessica Hamby

    Looking a bit more closely I’m beginni.g to thi k I have been infected by Pauline too. I’ve been talking about waiting for Jale to do something stupid. Why? She hasn’t done anything wrong or nasty since she’s been in there. She’s handled the bullying with grace.

    How can it only be week 2?

  • Jessica Hamby

    Reply to Henry VIII – I say that because this browser will put this reply at the bottom of the list.

    Yes. I think you make a good point. I still think Jale, assuming she survives, will finish above her though, and so will Chris.

  • Cath

    The other thing to consider in Helen vs Jale for top girl, should we end up at that, is that viewers would have had to keep Jale in up until that point (all be it by voting to evict others above her) and therefore emotionally invested in her, whereas Helen will have sailed through immune, no doubt at the expense of housemates that viewers prefer. I think this would give Jale a definite advantage at that stage.

  • Henry VIII

    Jale’s price has drifted after her argument with Chris.

  • Jessica Hamby

    I don’t think opinions on Danielle have softened that much though. I think that the voters are “saving her for later” because they want to hit Pauline and the Mean Team first. Danielle’s going to have to do a lot more than stop complaining about sex talk and not mention her opposition to equal marriage if she wants to be popular.

  • Jessica Hamby

    My feelings about Helen are that her behaviour has simply been too bad and just fitting in with the others won’t be enough unless it starts very soon (so that there’s enough of the show for her most horrid moments to be forgotten about). Aisleyne was loved by many because she was an antidote to the Sezer / Grace evil alliance. In this case Helen is part of the evil alliance. That’s her problem in my opinion.

    If I was to go with anyone for top girl at the moment it would be Kimberly, given that from what I’ve read Jale has blown it by telling everyone Chris is the Power Housemate.

    Wow. I was waiting for her to do something dumb and she did it in style.

  • Henry VIII

    Winston is favourite again (he was an early fav) and this time with more reason.

    Chris has been very quiet outside of the diary room.

  • Andy

    It feels like madness to even consider backing Winston at 5/2 this early into the show, but when you look at his competition in the house, it seems crazy not to.
    I think it is safe to assume he will go a long long way.

  • Henry VIII

    Winston was a typical Essex dullard the first week but then started coming out with smart witty improvs that made me laugh. I’ve been backing him for the last 5 days from 9.4 down. I stopped at 4s. 3s are very low at this stage, but also I’m going to be more disciplined after over backing Chris and Pauline foolishly thinking they may become some kind of Gina-Dex, LukeA-Adam.

    Out of the others there are a few that I keep green but the field just seems so weak.

  • Andy

    Winston’s bromance with Marlon is the likely cause of the weakness in his price, they are beginning to look a little thuggish. Winston will not stand out while he is living in marlon’s pocket, Marlon leaving would be of great benefit to Winston but that isn’t going to happen for a few weeks.

  • David

    Toya showing some signs of redemption but it’s probably too late, I think if Marlon carries on being a woman beating ass for the rest of this week there’s a chance he could go instead.

  • Toya is turning out to be even worse than Pauline imo.

  • Andy

    Ash get’s a little personal and might get pulled into the eviction battle. 1:32 onwards

  • Henry VIII

    So much for my idea that Helen might, with the time she had, redeem herself. Looks likely she’ll even get herself ejected next time she drinks.

    Looks like Ash goes now on Friday doesn’t it?

    • Natasha

      Yes I agree about Ash probably going on Friday although, he was one of the first to be saved last week which is my only doubt. He has been really vile this week though so who knows

  • Andy

    The female housemates have finally made a decision about who to save from eviction, they were allowed to choose 3 of the male housemates and have decide on

    Chris
    Marlon
    Steven

    Meaning

    Ash
    Christopher
    Mark
    Matthew
    Winston

    All face the public vote this Friday..

  • David

    Ash is so odds on to be evicted it isn’t even worth betting on. Perhaps BB will edit tonight’s show to drag another housemate into the eviction battle.

  • Andy

    Ladbrokes going 1/4 Ash for eviction.
    Happy days.
    🙂
    Happy to take that.

  • David

    I felt Ashleigh had a chance of winning the show a few weeks ago but after tonight’s show and editting I think Ashleigh could be BB’s chosen one to win.

    • Henry VIII

      BB have proven to be rather stupid with regards to their brand the last few years. And there may not be a TCO this year. But if they have any sense a sweet young model like Ashleigh would be a good ambassador for them and with more pap interest and photos than most.

  • David

    I think momentum going into the final week will swing with Christopher. He has been a sucker of a doormat all show and dismissed by most housemates at one time or another, but he has always retained integrity. He has been on the biggest journey and the voting public love this shit. Tonight he takes on Helen and slaps her down. Mark possibly leaving on Friday will also work in his favour IMO.

  • Henry VIII

    Yes, my position is Christopher and Ashleigh, I can’t see anybody else winning.

    I’m surprised that Chris’s support help up, even after he was shown to be so sneaky.

  • eurovicious

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwpLzz-s9Ko <- think we'll be seeing this technique used on unfavoured X Factor acts this year?

  • Andy

    BB still ramming Helen down the viewers throats, tonight she was the victim, while Ashleigh was the spoilt brat who always gets her own way and steals her friends sparkling wine. it is now bordering on embarrassing how much they want Helen to win. Get ready for the favourable BBOTS treatment later.

    http://metro.co.uk/2014/08/09/big-brother-2014-helen-wood-deserves-to-win-and-heres-14-reasons-why-4826985/

    http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1996709

    BB got Aaron over the line in 2011 but my jaw will hit the floor if Helen wins.

    • Andy

      Well no surprises on BBOTS where the all the panel & audience liked Helen, even Luiza who has slated Helen all series came out in support.
      Rylan is coming out with more carefully scripted bullshit than Louis Walsh.
      Should I be worried that Helen can win ?
      I have Helen redder than the fires of hell, her price has tumbled after last nights show and a few more carefully edited shows between now and Friday and it could be a extremely painful weekend for me.
      I am sitting on a decent profit if Ashleigh or Christopher wins.
      Thoughts anyone ?

      BB couldn’t make it any more blatant that they want Helen to win, I just hope the public can see through the obvious favouritism.

  • Andy

    Fake eviction in BB tonight, HELEN THE VICTIM has been evicted into a secret room where she can listen to carefully edited bitching about her by Ashleigh and co.

  • Natasha

    When is the final by the way?

  • Nissl

    XF bootcamp spoilers have gone up on the Digital Spy forums, by the way. There’s apparently an 8-boy manufactured group, didn’t see that coming… very interested to see how *that* turns out.

  • Nugg

    Had intended to go to all the XF bootcamp shows , but only managed two in the end (overs and groups) for various reasons, but did go to arena auditions too. The spoilers on digital spy are accurate, as are the reports in the press about the crowd displeasure at some of the choices. The audience was the rowdiest I have seen at XF, particularly on the Sunday. Usual interference from Richard Holloway regarding the choices for JH but that is to be expected, they are there to make good TV after all.

    My own opinion is that this will be a good year for XFactor, Cheryl and Simon really do add something to the show entertainment wise.

    The likelyhood is, given the comments from Simon and her “form” that Steph (ex BGT Luminite) will be installed as favourite come the lives and be quite short, but for me that is way to obvious a choice and will not be value and I will be looking elsewhere for a winner.

    Lizzy Pattinson, could be an interesting runner if she makes the lives and can translate some of the Twilight fan base her brother has into phone votes ?

    There are a few novelty acts through to JH, including a lovely (but unpopular) pair of Jedward type girls called Blonde Electric and an energetic crowd pleasing over called Stevie to keep us entertained…..it will be interesting to see if both of those make the live shows, as we all know the show needs a couple of fun acts to keep it interesting.

    Much of the crowd displeasure was the result of selection of novelty acts over talent……I can see the producers difficulty here….the only way round it I guess would be to have a separate novelty category or one spot in each category reserved for a novelty act.

    There was also a brief mention of four acts from each mentor going through to lives from JH this year….

    Still trying to sort tickets for the lives and finals this year (i have one nights live tickets so far, my choice of date), as usual if anyone has spare spaces, I am happy to queue and go and might even buy you a beer or two.

    It is good to be back here, I had been unemployed for a while and had to focus on getting back to work (which I have now done), so haven’t been around much this year. Looking forward to swapping opinions in this XF series though and will be posting regularly once the show starts proper.

    Love and peace

    Nugg

    • Daniel

      Hey Nugg, great to hear from you and thanks for the information. I too am looking forward to the return of Simon amongst other things on this year’s X Factor – you can expect the usual coverage and debate on here.

  • I’m raring to go on this year’s x factor. With 3 runner ups in a row I need to find the winner this year!

    • Andy

      Rumoured to be on Cheryl’s team.

      Chloe-Jasmine Whichello

      • Nissl

        I was kind of holding back on giving my opinion until I saw she’s probably a controversy contestant, and I can see why. Technically sound but I find her a bit unlikable, lacking in self awareness, bland.

        Been digging through Youtube. Steph Nala I guess everyone knows already, can easily see why Simon wants to try a launch. Emily Middlemas is very good, but she’s lost a good bit of charisma in the last 2 years, which she needs for the quirky acoustic side I can actually see as possibly unique/marketable. Needs to figure that out. The manufactured boyband has at least a couple extremely cute guys, is 4/4 on solid voices that I could find (none quite as strong as Harry Styles), and seems to be another producer fave. If it doesn’t come off awkward, they’re a real commercial threat.

        Bah, I really should just wait for the show to start.

      • Nissl

        BTW, have they led contestant leaks for a season with the controversy act before (my searches are coming up empty)? Maybe market testing to see how much juice she has? But it’s also smart to keep the real contenders under wraps, signal to the gossip-mongers that interesting acts are back this year, etc.

        Spoilers have it that she was almost too controversial of a selection over vocally better acts in bootcamp in the eyes of the live crowd, particularly given that it was Cheryl doing the cutting not Louis. Looking at the DM article, maybe Simon’s taking a little heat for her?

  • Natasha

    Has anyone been following this years BB closely enough to give their analysis on who they envisage the winner to be? Helen’s price has shortened again throughout the day whilst Christopher’s has drifted, Thanks in advance

  • Andy

    Prediction……. I think the markets are correct.
    6th Pointless Pav.
    5th Chris.
    4th Ash.
    3rd Helen,
    2nd Christopher.
    1st Ashleigh,

    Regarding Helen,I don’t believe producers would really like her to win. They just want viewers to think that there is a chance that she could win which would likely lead to more votes for Ashleigh and Christopher but they are playing a dangerous game by pimping her. There has been lots of discontent online about the favourable editing and scripted comments on BBOTS. If she wins I think it would damage the show beyond repair and viewers would likely switch off in their thousands.

    The gamble on Helen this week is mostly down to punters who have layed her for the last couple of months at long odds and are panicking into getting money down just in case.

    I admit I am guilty of betting on her yesterday and the fear spreads when the market moves in one direction.
    She is not as popular as they want us to believe, she has many more enemy’s than friends and that means she is extremely unlikely to win.

    People are aware that Ashleigh is the obvious winner and will be voting in their droves to make sure Helen doesn’t win. Then there is the Irish vote which will be huge.

    Poor Chris was damaged by the creepy tag a few weeks ago when BBOTS did there hatchet job on him. I fear he will be out fairly early tomorrow night.

    Christopher has a decent fan base that should be good enough for top male. He has been quiet since mark left and then BB decided to go with the Helen V Ashleigh storyline which left him fading in the background.

    Each of the following housemates have been 5/2 or shorter on Betfair this summer.

    1,Pauline.
    2,Jale.
    3,Winston.
    4,Chris.
    5,Mark.
    6,Ashleigh.
    7,Chrisopher
    and possibly Helen before the end of the show tomorrow.

    If you had backed each housemate when the price shortened you would be facing a hefty loss but if you had been brave enough to lay each favourite to a fixed stake at 5/2 or shorter it would now be a very profitable series.

    That’s the way I see it, Best of luck to anybody who is involved.

    • Natasha

      Thanks Andy. I actually put a hefty bet on Cristopher on Tuesday but am now thinking maybe I shouldn’t have. Ex BB winners have said they think he’ll take the crown though? And he has been on a huge journey in there. He is also Irish so should have Ireland on his side. Ashleigh reminds me somewhat of ‘Queen Gina’ last year who everyone was campaigning to win however, Mr nice guy Sam who was humble through out won and it was completely justified. I kind of see Christopher in the same sort of way I saw Sam? And Gina in a similar way to Ashleigh. Do you not agree?

    • Wise decision to hedge your bets mate

  • Andy

    I well remember you calling Sam the winner last year Natasha, most my money was on Dexter but I turned a small profit by betting in running largely thanks to guidance by you and Guildo.
    I also have money on Christopher and wouldn’t be too surprised or disappointed if he did win.
    Ashleigh seems to have built up a large hard core following due to the way she has handled Helen, its kind of a good vs evil battle and the public and producers surely know which way these battles ought to go, Ashleigh has a warmth and vulnerability that a confident Gina was sadly lacking.
    she can do a bit of bitching but in general she comes across as a very caring, sensitive teenager that has handled herself credibly through out a very difficult couple of months in a sometimes hostile environment. a good many her age may well have cracked up and walked out, she is my favourite and I hope she wins regardless of the punting aspect.

  • David

    Ashleigh is the clear favourite and judging by polls and social media she will steamroller to voctory. However, I still have a feeling that Christopher can win it. I believe Christopher is more in the mould of ‘the people’s champion’ and come final night he will be getting a lot of votes from the mass casuals who do not take part in polls or social media. Furthermore if Helen gets evicted before Ashleigh and Christopjer I am sure Helen’s fans will switch their vote to Christopher.

  • Natasha

    Yes, I also feel that Christopher fits into the mould of ‘peoples champion’ as did Luke A in 2012 and Sam in 2013. Luke A was 2nd favourite to win behind Adam on finals night in 2012 as was Sam to Gina on finals night last year. Sophie Reade I believe fitted into this role nicely also

  • Henry VIII

    Christopher has been absent recently though. Therefore I can’t see anybody else than Ashleigh. Good summary from Andy 14/8 9.39.

  • David

    It did cross my mind over the last month that Helen’s character was so unique that the unthinkable could happen, but I never really acted on it. Overall I made a small loss because fear made me place a small bet on Helen at high odds last week. I will definitely take this as a learning experience.

  • Andy

    After 10 years of watching and gambling on reality TV, I have to say that I am fairly certain that BB was fixed this year and the outcome was decided before the show began.
    There are many reasons being discussed all over forums and media outlets.
    The fact that there was only 1% difference in the voting between Helen and Ashleigh arouses suspicion.
    *The pass to the final.
    *BBOTS preferential treatment.
    *Lack of punishment for bad behaviour (bullying & aggression)
    *Her relationship with Channel 5.
    *The favourable editing. etc, etc, etc.
    But the clincher for me and one event that makes it more evident than anything that this was a staged show came in week 4. Cast your mind back to the eviction between Ash, Christopher, Winston, Mark and Matthew.
    Details in the below link.

    http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/big-brother/188229-tonights-big-brother-2014-results-ash-harrison-huge-favourite-to-go.html

    I remember it well because I lost very heavily taking short odds for an Ash eviction. It was my worst ever result in BB and at the time I could not understand how a contestant who was trading as short as 1/20 escaped eviction, Ash was polling over 70% with all the major (who do you want to evict) BB polls.
    it was a fore gone conclusion, it was a absolute certainty yet Matthew gets evicted.
    Matthew had done nothing to offend the voting public. There is no possible way he should have been sent home against Ash.
    It is only now with the benefit of hindsight that this eviction makes any sense at all.
    Ash was Helens rock in the BB house, he was her one true friend and the one who kept the Helen storyline alive. He kept her in the limelight with his affections and late night private talks. She would have been without a companion and looking like a sad aggressive figure in the house for 6 more weeks and most likely getting into more arguments and becoming a more unlikeable housemate.
    TPTB couldn’t allow this to happen. If she really was pencilled in for a winners podium which we now know to be the case and out of all the evidence and suspicion floating around I strongly suspect that this eviction was fiddled/fixed/rigged for the good of getting Helen home and hosed.
    Thoughts anyone ?

  • fused

    It sounds a little bit tinfoil hat, to be honest.

    It’s been a while now, but with polls it’s not just the overall result, it helps to pay attention to momentum. It’s been a while, so maybe I’m misremembering, but Ash’s polling was decreasing all week, while Matthew’s was increasing. I wasn’t that shocked about the result personally.

    Ash is a good looking guy, girls who fancied him may well have voted for Matthew to save Ash. Matthew also wasn’t very likeable, IMO. He was pretentious, stuck-up, bitchy, he made a lot comments about “chavs” which might have wound people up. I think there were also people who wanted Ashleigh’s “evil plan” to backfire. She wasn’t as popular back then as she would become, and I think they could have had some satisfaction in her not getting her way, she was kind of congratulating herself on succeeding before anyone had been evicted, and reality TV voters don’t seem to like people counting their chickens before they have hatched. I just don’t think it was that much of a shock that Matthew went.

    I think the producers probably favoured Helen, but only the same sort of way they favour most of the “big characters” in any series. They obviously want to keep them in. I remember them constantly delaying Chanelle walking out of BB8, and it was ridiculous how they bent over backwards to keep Crab Eyes John James from quitting in BB11. They need a storyline at the end of the day, and I can see why they went with Ashleigh vs Helen.

    As for Tellymix, I think their reporting has got very biased this year. They’ve been quite aggressively anti-Helen all series, that’s probably going to influence their polls.

    I never buy these sort of conspiracy theories, and I’ll admit I’m someone who quite liked Helen, but I just don’t see why they’d go to the lengths some people think they’ll have gone to.

    • Andy

      Thanks for the reply Fused, its good to hear opinion’s… for and against. Maybe I’m overthinking this, its what I do.

      However, I am not on my own in thinking that this series was suspect.

      Tellymix was one of many polls that evening that had Ash in front by a country mile and let’s not forget the week before when he called Jale a Maggot, he was odds on 2/7 to be evicted that weekend and then Toya went home but I admit that wasn’t such a shock for me.

      There just seems to be far too many coincidences this year for me to believe that this result wasn’t planned from the start.

  • fused

    Ash hadn’t really done much wrong (or much at all really) since the “maggott” incident though. He was on his best behavior after getting booed I think. I distinctly remember Ashleigh saying she was annoyed Ash didn’t react badly to getting put up for the vote, which probably didn’t make her look too good.

    It does seem like the majority of the phone vote is done on Friday, and the polls tend to start very early, and before the phone vote is open, and a lot can change in a week, particularly as I suspect the phone votes are very low these days. I mean, they can be very easily influenced with social media campaigns these days. Look at Winston!

    Talking of Winston, I think his eviction might have helped Helen’s vote. She will have absorbed a lot of the votes that would have gone to him. There have also been a lot of people who hated those sort of social media campaigns, and the hardcore internet fandoms that went with them, all the “Chris IS superior to all the others!” and “queen Ashleigh” sort of stuff everywhere got very annoying.

    I was as surprised about Helen winning as most people, but there was a bit of a momentum towards her. A lot of ex-housemates praised her, as did a few people on BBOTS,and didn’t one of Little Mix say they were voting for her or something? Helen and Ashleigh dominated the screen time in the final week when people were voting to win, and that’s usually a good thing. Even bad publicity is better than none in a positive vote, as it doesn’t really matter how many people dislike you, what matters is how many people like you.

    I don’t know, I don’t see what benefit they would get from fixing it for a certain housemate to win from the start. Maybe they favour certain housemates and manipulate through editing, but straight up fixing the vote? I think that would a very stupid thing to do apart from anything else.

    • Andy

      You make some very good points Fused that make a lot of sense and you have a better memory than myself.
      But talking of conspiracy theories.
      Do you work for Channel 5 ?

      🙂

  • fused

    🙂 Thank you! No, I don’t work for Channel 5 or Endemol or in TV at all. I’m just a bit of a pub quiz sort of nerd who has a good memory for useless trivia. One thing I had forgotten that I’d heard before was that “tinfoil hats actually amplify radio waves”, so thanks for that link!

    I did an overly long post about this year’s series of Big Brother on my blog, I don’t know if anyone’s interested or what use it would be, it’s just a jokey recap of the whole series with my opinions and random stuff most people will have forgotten, but if anyone wants to check it out feel free.

    http://headphonedaydreams.wordpress.com/2014/08/17/big-brother-15/

  • Managed to get 8s on george for celeb bb yesterday afternoon. Which I took a punt on mainly because kellie maloney was too short. Surprisingly woke up this morning and saw that george is now favourite. Ive never watched gogglebox in my life but he seems a likeable enough chap

  • Nissl

    Just saw the rumored XF voting change is actually being implemented. Who knows how it will translate, but I thought I’d offer a few thoughts based on US experience.

    First, it does probably damage older skewing acts slightly, but it’s very far from a guarantee the cutest young boy wins. It seems to be a hard core who go through the trouble of voting and they tend to actually go for the best and most interesting, or at least not skew more teen girl than recent seasons of UKXF. Of course, the US shows are boiled down to a small, hard core of relatively old viewers at this point compared to UKXF.

    Second, if it winds up with the audience rating each member like the US, that turns into a vote to evict as much as to keep. In this environment, being genuinely, memorably terrible isn’t as surprisingly strong of a position as it used to be. Being above average but forgettable on a week when you seem safe isn’t quite as dangerous either. I also have a sneaking suspicion the sympathetic judges might have even more audience guiding ability.

    • Dan

      Wow, didn’t think they’d actually go through with this…Maybe we’ll have a win from Louis and a group (boy) this year.

      • Donald

        Louis friend Linda Martin had a girl group to through to judges houses and there is another group who Syco A&R went to see last year, wonder will they turn up.

    • Nissl

      …so, only 5 votes total per show? Yeah, that’s probably going to be fairly good for young-skewing acts, better than on the US show where everyone can cover every act. And disregard my comment about terrible vs. forgettable this year.

      They’re learning.

  • David

    RE: Celebrity Big Brother

    I have to say I think Gary Busey is absolutely fantastic to watch, he’s unintentionally hilarious and rather endearing at the same time. From a viewing point of view I would like him to win but I thinkj he has stiff competition from White Dee and George Gilbey. I fear that people will end up voting for the UK contestants, especially Dee and George as they are ‘normal everyday people’ and not so much celebrities.

    Thoughts?

  • David Cook

    I think David McIntosh is going home (or at least to the Borehamwood Travelodge) tomorrow. He’s not got much going for him. I think even James will be picking up votes – most likely from Gary fans wanting to keep him in as the confrontations are probably worth so many votes to Gary.
    But I haven’t got a clue who’s going to win it.

  • David Cook

    Kellie to go next I think.Over the last ten days Kellie has slipped out of the Kellie act and now is just Frank in a wig. Not many votes in that I think.

  • Gary looks set to do a jim davidson

    • Ive topped up on george today using some of last night’s leslie winnings. They seem to be pushing the showmance story big time now. I think they would prefer a george win over Gary.
      Also am I alone in thinking edele is way too big at 7/1 for top women? Im all over that. Must be similar to abs with big fan base, fresh from the big reunion and the irish vote.

  • David Cook

    Stoney – you beat me to it. One of the few value bets looks like Edele for top woman – I’ve put a few pennies on and I’m hoping for the best. Realisticly she only needs to squeeze past Dee, so I think she’s in with a chance. There’s still week and a half for Dee to loose support which already looks like it’s slipping.
    I’d like to say Kellie to go Wednesday again – but some people are obviously putting votes her way – so Ricci as favorite to go probably looks about right. Not much value in the odds though.

    • I would say kellie has been scraping safe the last 2 times and think it will be 3rd time unlucky. Ill be jumping on her for next eviction. Ricci should be able to rely on enough support from the geordies to survive.
      Edele is shortening each day for that top women. Top Price 10/3

  • David Cook

    It’s the final of CBB and at least my bets are still live. I’ve been on holiday so I’ve missed the past week but by the look of things it still looks like Gary to win. A win for Audley would be better, but it looks like he’s still too far behind to be in with a chance. He’s made the final from being one of the outsiders in the early betting.
    Edele for top woman is still possible – she’s down to the last two, but can she beat Dee. From the comments on DS neither look very popular so it might be neck and neck in the public vote and either could be first to go out tonight.
    Good luck to anyone who is betting.

    • Like you my bets are still live but I haven’t topped up this week as they are precarious. George to win and edelle top lady would be fantastic. I keep hoping nial horan will give a tweet in support of edele which would seal the deal

  • 1 down 1 to go. I’ve got a short odds cover on Gary and a long odds cover on james. Disaster for me would be an audley win.
    Ps shame on nial horan for not back he’s fellow irish

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