X Factor 2013: Will South-centricity help Nicholas?

Sofabet commenter Chatterbox5200 emails: “The live shows have a rather ‘South-centric’ feel to them this year… I wonder which act(s) this is likely to assist. Who will those north of London vote for?”

Chatterbox points out that there are no acts from Wales or Ireland. Among the English acts, if you don’t count Manchester-based Rielle from Miss Dynamix, only Guisborough’s Abi Alton is from further north of Sam Bailey’s home in Leicesterhire.

Analysing the stats on regional origins of acts from previous years, Chatterbox makes the case that this could play to the advantage of the lone Scot in the field, Nicholas McDonald:

Looking back over the previous nine series, it makes interesting reading to see the relationship between the origin of the winning act, and the number of non-Southern contestants (see attached spreadsheet for full details):

2004  –  2 out of 9 Contestants from the North (+ 2 from Ireland)
2005  –  3 out of 12 Contestants from the North (+2 from Ireland and 1 from Wales)
2006  –  2 out of 12 Contestants from the North (+3 from Scotland)
2007  –  0 out of 12 Contestants from the North (+2 from Wales and 1 from Scotland)
2008  –  4 out of 12 Contestants from the North (+1 from Ireland)
2009  –  1 out of 12 Contestants from the North (+2 from Wales, 1 from Scotland and 1 from Ireland)
2010  – 3 out of 16 Contestants from the North (+1 from Scotland and 1 from Ireland)
2011  –  7 out of 16 Contestants & 1/2 of Little Mix from the North (+1 from Ireland)
2012  –  5 out of 13 Contestants from the North

In 2007 when there were 0 Northern acts represented, the winner was Leon Jackson, from Scotland.

In 2009 when there was only 1 Northern act, namely Joe McElderry, he went on to win the show. (The Scottish act was Rikki Loney – who finished 11th out of 12 ahead of only Kandy Rain!)

With Abi appearing to have only a niche appeal, and seemingly not even being the preferred act in the girl’s category, I wonder if this is all indicating support in the direction of Nicholas McDonald?

It’s an interesting question. If there’s something in it – and we obviously have to tread with caution given there are only two data points of series with fewer than two northern acts – presumably the mechanism we have to postulate is that some people from the north define their identity, to some extent, as “not from the south”, making northern support at least somewhat transferable.

In turn this opens up debate about the extent to which regional support extends. Abi Alton, for instance, is from Guisborough (population 18,000). That’s not quite Middlesbrough (population 376,000) – but it does have the same local newspaper, the Evening Gazette, which duly has plenty of Abi coverage. It seems fair to assume that Abi will be getting some Middlesbrough votes just because she’s a local lass. But how far afield does that hold? To what extent would residents of, say, Hartlepool feel like Abi is one of their own? By the time we get as far as, say, Sunderland and Newcastle – let alone Leeds or Manchester or Liverpool – it stretches credulity to imagine there are many voters picking up the phone out of a conscious sense of local loyalty.

But we don’t need that to happen for Chatterbox’s theory to hold true. All we need to postulate is that, on some unconscious level, Liverpudlians and Mancunians and Glaswegians and Geordies feel more instinctive connection with each other than any of them do with Londoners. That doesn’t feel so far-fetched. And given how big “the north” is, even if this is only a weak effect felt by a minority, it might conceivably still have a discernable impact. It’s a theory worth considering, at least.

While we’re considering regional votes, we thought it might be interesting to sort Chatterbox’s data by region – here’s that pdf – and average out some regional finishing positions. It’s an extremely imprecise science because some of the groups are harder to categorise regionally than others, and because the data sets are often small. That said, and just for fun, here’s what we find.

The region with most consistency is Liverpool – six acts, four podium finishes, and the lowest position being Craig Colton’s 6th. Their average finishing position is 3.33. (I excluded James Michael from these calculations, along with other 2011 twist victims and acts who dropped out in ways other than the public vote).

Craig Colton, of course, provides us with amusing evidence that producers are keenly aware of the power of the Liverpool vote. Infamously, when he was in favour at the start of the series, he got a VT studded with Mersey landmarks; when they wanted him out, his VT showed a map of the UK with his hometown identified as Kirkby.

The next best average, from Chatterbox’s lists, is The North, with an average finishing position of 5.17 if you include Liverpool and 5.82 if you exclude it.

Despite the doubts expressed above about the transferability of Tyneside/Teesside support, the four acts from the north-east – Joe McElderry from Tyneside, and Teesside’s James Arthur, Journey South and Amelia Lily – boast two wins and two thirds between them. That seems too small a sample size from which to draw conclusions, though, given the unusual circumstances of Amelia’s reintroduction and the level of producer support for James. Poor Abi seems set to bring the average down.

The eight acts from the island of Ireland – three from Ulster, five from the Republic – boast an average finishing position of 5.87, which remains practically unchanged if we split it into the two subsamples.

Acts from The South, not including London, weigh in at 6.28. We’re not suggesting there’s a meaningful “the south” vote, but some of the acts in that list – Essex, Devon, Luton, Swindon – should have benefited somewhat from a sense of local regional identity.

If we exclude Storm Lee, whose claim to the Scottish vote seemed somewhat optimistic, Scotland comes in at an average of 6.4. That seems surprisingly low, given the ones we all remember punching above their weight – The MacDonald Brothers and Leon Jackson, not to mention BGT’s Jai McDowell. It’s dragged down by Nikitta Angus, Kerry MacGregor and Nikki Loney.

Six acts from Wales have averaged 6.67. For benchmarking, the average of all finishing positions across the series so far is 6.74.

Underperforming the average are acts from London, with a combined average of 8.34, and The Midlands, with 8.38. With only eight acts from the Midlands – the fourth places of Cher Lloyd and Niki Evans being their best performers – that perhaps reflects only that they’ve so far been as unfortunate as the north-east has been fortunate in who they’ve had to cheer for.

But with nearly 30 London acts, it becomes harder to argue the case for bad luck. Is there less of a sense of regional identity in London? Perhaps the reason is simply that there’s a disproportionate number of London-based acts – about a quarter of the total, whereas London accounts for only about 13.5% of the UK population.

Two of this year’s London acts – Lorna from Streatham, and Kingsland Road from, er, Kingsland Road – have already been in trouble. Coincidentally, the other two London acts, Hannah and Rough Copy, are both from Croydon. It was Rough Copy who got the Croydon shoutout last week, although it’s perhaps arguable whether that’s a good or bad thing for Hannah.

Indeed, the whole question of the utility of regional shoutouts has been occasionally called into question in the Sofabet comments, notably when producers went to such lengths to tie Misha B to Manchester: some in the comments felt this could have been offputting to non-Mancunians. Our assumption is that producers must have access to some form of regional vote breakdown, and should be able to tell if the time-honoured formula of “I want everyone in X to pick up the phone” generates more votes from X than it loses in areas other than X.

It can be made to play both ways, though, depending on how it’s phrased. In the week they finally got Janet Devlin, we thought it was significant that Louis remarked “everyone in Ireland is picking up the phone”, the implications being that nobody outside of Ireland needed to bother and that she’d got this far on regional support not on merit.

Your views on whether Southern-centricity might play into Nick’s hands this year, and more generally on the role and significance of the regional vote? Do share your thoughts below.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

56 comments to X Factor 2013: Will South-centricity help Nicholas?

  • Lia

    Just to complicate a bit more, acts like Ruth Lorenzo and Nicolo Festa are not even British, so it seems they get the hard end and people from their adopted hometowns don’t get behind them.
    Also, if you’re going to count Storm as Scottish, then you should also count Melanie Masson. She was even asked by producers to audition in Glasgow to try to capitalise on that. Needless to say it didn’t work.
    Finally, I live in Doncaster and it’s Abi who? People are more interested in Louis Tomlinson of 1D fame signing a special contract to play for the Rovers (when his schedule allows, obviously).

  • eurovicious

    It’s worth bearing in mind a lot of folk in the north have family links with Scotland, Ireland or both. Liverpool is a special case as a lot of the white population there has Irish immigrant roots. It’s also worth bearing in mind the UK media can be very southeast-centric, so in a field of southern contestants, northern/Scots/Irish acts automatically have a certain underdog value which I suspect fosters support, as those stats would tentatively indicate.

    I’ve noticed in myself an instinctive sense of solidarity with acts from the north, particularly the northwest which is where I’m from. Despite the fact I hate it – in fact, that’s partly why I have solidarity with them. This only applies to acts I like though – for instance, Joe McElderry was never to my taste, so his mere being northern didn’t make him appeal to me, I liked Olly best and so did my dad. But part of Abi’s appeal to me is her northernness, I have to be honest. I feel protective of her. My own family (Cumbrian/Irish but living in the Liverpool-Manchester belt of shiteness) relates much more to Scotland than to England despite none of us being Scottish. So if my parents watched X Factor (they don’t) they’d support Nick. At least my mum would (and vote for him too, probably), my dad would say “we’re not watching this shite are we?” and turn over to Yesterday for scintillating Nazi action.

    So: “Liverpudlians and Mancunians and Glaswegians and Geordies feel more instinctive connection with each other than any of them do with Londoners” – I completely agree with that. It feels weird admitting that, like I’m being prejudiced or something, but it’s not meant that way – it’s just one of those things, it’s kinship. That said, I think (like so many things) it’s more about class than north/south. For instance, if Scott from last year’s Big Brother (northern posho) and Stacey Solomon (southern working-class) were on the same reality show, I’d be supporting Stacey. As there tend not to be contestants with posh southern accents on X Factor, this isn’t much of an issue, but what I mean is it depends on the type of southern – I don’t think acts from the southwest (Shelley, Luke) or working-class southern English acts (Stacey) would face any particular hostility from northern or Scots viewers. Though not necessarily any solidarity either.

    Regarding Eurovision, it’s been debated whether black acts from western Europe have difficulty picking up votes in eastern Europe (where most countries have miniscule black populations and no history of contact with black people – this being of course because unlike western Europe, they weren’t involved in slavery or colonialism). I think an analogous debate can be extended to the X Factor – I’d be interested to know whether black acts have trouble picking up votes in Scotland, NI, Wales and parts of the north, ie. areas with very low black populations. (Northern Ireland in particular is dead racist, much more so than the other areas I list.)

    One also has to remember the nature of the UK. Unlike, say, Germany or Italy, which were formed by a bunch of principalities joining together, the UK’s formation was violent – Scotland, Ireland, Wales and to an extent the north were actively conquered, occupied, oppressed and exploited by the English/British ruling class (and continue to be), before said class went on to rape, conquer and fuck up large swathes of the rest of the world. (Sorry for language.) The wealth of the British ruling class and the grandeur of parts of London is built on centuries of exploitation of the rest of the world – starting with the Celtic nations and the north and expanding across much of the globe. The legacy of this: today, you can fly a tricolore anywhere in France, but a Union Jack is extremely unwelcome in more than a few parts of the UK. There is outright resentment towards “the English” (in the nations) or “the southern English” (in the north) in a lot of places.

    Also unlike most European countries, we have an incredibly entrenched class system and the country is still run by a coterie of oleaginous plutocrats who have their own entirely separate social structures – their own schools (Eton and Rugby Group), own universities (Oxbridge, St Andrews and others) and own institutions – and who as a rule barely mix with ordinary society. As a student I met people from this segment of society who had never interacted with people outside of their own class and had no idea how to talk to ordinary people like me. David Cameron, in an interview once, said his wife was “very unusual” for having been to a “day school” (ie. not a boarding school) – yet 97% of the population don’t go to boarding schools. That’s how blinkered and socially segregated the upper crust are.

    As if this wasn’t enough, resentment towards “the south” as an undifferentiated mass by those outside of it is exacerbated further by the UK’s economic structure. The UK has the highest social inequality in western Europe and I believe in Europe as a whole once you take out Russia/Ukraine. So the wealth is in the hands of a few – and a lot of places in all parts of the country are impoverished. (I think people in the nations and the north don’t always realise “the south” is heterogeneous, that it has plenty of parts just as poor as in the north and that large parts of London are a massive ghetto.) This and other factors, if you’ll bear with me for this analogy without stamping it off as hyperbole, make the UK far more comparable to the country in “The Hunger Games” (Panem) than most other European nations, which are far less unequal and far more decentralised*. So when it comes to X Factor, I think viewers in the impoverished Districts are more likely to support contestants from the Districts (regardless of which) than those from the decadent Capitol. Which rings us neatly back to “Liverpudlians and Mancunians and Glaswegians and Geordies feel more instinctive connection with each other than any of them do with Londoners”.

    *The UK’s economy and culture are incredibly centred on London. Compare this to Germany, where only 3 of the country’s top 100 companies are in Berlin. Obviously this has roots in 20th-century history but it’s not like the other 97 are all in one place either – they’re literally everywhere, distributed throughout the whole of former West Germany both in big cities and smaller towns.

  • stoney

    This is precisely the reason that mcnic is gonna be nigh on impossible to stop. If they don’t want him winning they need to get to work this weekend

  • eurovicious

    Nick and Sam could easily be this series’s Eoghan and Diana – leading all the way but failing to pick up broader appeal by the time of the final. SuBo (also Scots) seemed a shoe-in on BGT but Diversity won in the end, maybe it can win here too.

    BTW as of her week 2 performance I’m totally off Hannah winning. I think Tamera can do it. What I’ve seen of Tamera’s performance suggests to me that she can have very broad “pop-star” appeal – she’s not coming over as this year’s urban girl in the Cher/Misha vein, but as a straight-up, competent singer/pop star with all-round appeal. People who don’t read the tabloids won’t have a negative impression of her – I think how she’s presented on the show is far more important. Hannah comes over as more niche and less able, and (like shouty Ruth off t’ Voice) someone people won’t necessarily enjoy listening to – yes, she’s not urban, but I do think she comes over as a more threatening and less mainstream proposition than Tamera, and despite the volume of tears she certainly no Alexandra Burke.

    • Heisenberg

      I’ve been thinking the same about Hannah – problem is I’m knee deep in the Top Girl market with her. Eurovicious, you are assessing the landscape with enviable clarity whereas I’m looking only for an exit strategy at this point.

      Like many others here on Sofabet I was underwhelmed by last week’s performance which initially promised so much more impact. There are precedents for falling into the bottom 2 the week following a pimp slot – but Hannah is not a divisive act like Misha B or Kitty Brucknell and ‘should’ be safe this week. However, I will be watching her Greggs-themed VT closely for signs of ‘look how far you’ve come, you’ve already achieved the dream’ – something they did to Misha B in her week 3 VT which was ultimately overshadowed by Tulisa’s character assassination. If the VT signals are evident I will be shopping for early value Bottom 2 odds on Monday (assuming she’s still around) because that treatment would definitely tee her up for a quick fall.

      • eurovicious

        I feel your pain, I screwed up on my X Factor betting last year which is why I’m not touching it this year. If I *had* bet this year, I’d have laid the hell out of Shelley last week on the basis that she would almost certainly bounce – so given how things panned out I’m really relieved that I’m not.

        • Heisenberg

          In that case, if you’re not betting this time around, and between you and me, here are the current rankings according to my proprietary formula:

          Tamera 18 points
          Nicholas 18 points
          Sam C 13 points
          Luke 13 points
          Rough Copy 12 points
          Hannah B 11 points
          Sam B 8 points
          Kingsland Road 7 points
          Miss Dynamix 6 points
          Abi 4 points

          I started with this strategy 2 years ago and it has been successful in the elimination markets significantly more often than not. It has also predicted several shock bottom 2 appearances such as this result from last year which still makes me smile:

          http://goo.gl/EITWhK

          • Boki

            I’m not sure why you put SamB so low and SamC so high (a typo maybe?) but surely I like your top2 since I have equal nice green on them.

          • eurovicious

            “between you and me”, he says on a public forum 🙂 I won’t enquire as to what your formula is but judging by the fact Tamera and Nick are at the top and Abi and Miss Dynorod at the bottom, points are good, right? 😛 That win is very impressive indeed. If you want to chat more (privately), DM me in a few days when I reactivate my Twitter account (@eurovicious).

            I’m pleased to see you have hot Sam so far up, I’m surprised how down people are on him – having read what people had written about his vocals, I was expecting a lot worse when I caught up. He reminds me of Olly, which is no bad thing – he’s competent, fun and has stagecraft, and I think that could well see him a lot further than some think.

            While I’m here, that very subtle joke I made earlier in the week (which no-one seemed to get) about how Abi should do Petula Clark – the answer was DOWNTOWN ABI. *drumbeat*

          • Boki

            Isn’t it obvious that he is using a Matrix mechanics formula :). Btw I’m still interested in Sam reasoning, even if it was unintentional B/C switch.

          • eurovicious

            I actually did Further Maths AS-level (and Maths and Physics A-level – all As) so I used to know all about matrices, complex numbers, mechanics and thing. Then my hormones kicked in and I became interested in mechanics of a different kind, and my brain wallpapered over the maths part with pop videos and smut. I’m better for it.

          • Heisenberg

            Boki – targeted social media trending in recent days has partly contributed towards Sam C’s high position in the list.

            Anomalies like Miss D have made things tricky this week and I will not be jumping all over a Miss D/Abi bottom 2 even though that’s what the Flux Capacitor is predicting.

            My calculated hunch this week involves Rough Copy as potentially very vulnerable.

          • Boki

            If that’s true about SamC than you need to take the Fred’s bet of the day: Abi v Sam C Match Bet @2.1

          • Of course Sam C is going to score well on social media. But as previous years have shown, this won’t necessarily translate into votes. Union J and District3 kept falling into the bottom 2 because people were tweeting about them instead of voting, and of course they split the vote. This year, Sam C is currently splitting the tweenie girl vote with Luke, Kingsland Road, maybe Rough Copy? I reckon one of these acts is likely to be bottom 2 this weekend, and with Kingsland Road probably bouncing, my money’s on Luke. He is due an extremely early slot, like 1st or 2nd…as are Rough Copy actually.

      • Heisenberg

        One more thought re Hannah’s forthcoming VT – we know it will definitely feature the Greggs skit and will almost certainly feature red carpet glam from the Thor movie premiere.

        Coupling humble beginnings at Greggs with dizzy heights of the red carpet does kind of suggest the ‘you’ve now reached your destination’ theory.

        I hope not, but look out.

  • Good read, however is it a strong a trend as this ‘breeding’ one?

    This is what I wrote after bootcamp;

    If history is anything to go by then mixed-raced Tamera should go well in this show. The list of previous mixed raced contestants is a strong one;

    Leona Lewis – 1st 2006
    JLS – 2nd 2008
    Danyl Johnson – 4th 2008
    Rebecca Ferguson – 2nd 2010
    Marcus Collins – 2nd 2011
    Jahméne Douglas – 2nd 2012

    From an estimated 1.2 million mix-raced people (in The UK) I would say that the above results exceed expectation.

    I don’t know the exact reason for mixed raced people having a good record in the show, maybe they are just better performers. But I do think they can appeal to a broad spectrum of people. Obviously they can pick up votes from both black and white middle-aged people, many of who may have mixed raced children, the teen vote doesn’t really see colour and with regards to the ‘grey’ vote it’s likely that a decent proportion of them will have mixed-raced grandchildren or great-grandchildren, maybe they get reminded of this when they see mixed-raced people perform.

    If this was in the bloodstock section of the racing post people would clamour to be on her.

    I’ve always held the regional vote factor in high regard, but I don’t truely believe somebody can win a show beacuse of where they are from in the same way somebody can’t win a show because of the colour of their skin. Those factors may help people stay longer than expected in the competition, but when it comes down to only a few acts left the proprtions of people voting ‘should’ make those factors minimal.

    If Britian was a majority mixed-raced country would the last three winners be mixed race?

    • 4 of the previous 9 winners were from The South (with 3 of those being Londoners)

      Little Mix was half Southeners (Romford/Wycombe) and half Northern (South Sheilds)

      That would suggest it’s pretty even when it comes to regional bias in the latter stages.

      There’s also the question of where to draw the North Line, if it was drawn at Peterborough for example then London would have the biggest regional bias due to three winners from the same City

    • Would you not include the likes of Jade Ellis and Miss Frank?

      Interesting theory but the list is short enough that it could also just be coincidence. I’m not sure any of those did so well it would be hard to explain otherwise – most had some degree of producer support, Jahmene had the backstory, Marcus the regional vote (and dodged some early bullets) – in the way that you would say about some who we assume benefitted from a regional vote (Leon Jackson, Eoghan Quigg, etc).

  • Zoomraker

    Fantastic write up by eurovicious on the social/regional/class divisions in the UK.

    Could I add that 70% of the land in the UK is owned by 0.3% of the population and much of that ownership goes back to the Norman Conquest.

  • eurovicious

    X Factor/Eurovision crossover news: Diva Fever have entered the Swiss web selection http://www.eurovisionplattform.sf.tv/videos/dancefloor_lover

  • Keley

    As someone from Swindon I’d have to disagree that Jahmene got much significant local support. Whilst the Swindon Advertiser was certainly very excited, we’re only a small town, and people in the wider Wiltshire area go out of their way to disassociate with Swindon! Swindonians also don’t have nearly the same level of civic pride as most from the north. Other than that, interesting article as ever!

  • Some amusing song choices for tomorrow night. Moon River for Abi – which is a very old school song that I used to play on Hospital Radio in 1996 to people in their 80’s. I think it’s her turn to go…

    And I think we can guess who gets “Listen” can’t we….

    • Agree with you that Abi’s song isn’t a positive choice but would say the same for Kingsland amongst others, and Miss Dynamix will get the point rammed home that they’ve had an extra week to practice the same song.

    • Phil

      I don’t like to go for obvious predictions, but I can’t see anything other than Abi and Miss Dynamix as bottom 2. McNick doing what he does and will see him safe.

      Sam B a bit predictable – not sure doing a Celine Dion song is a good idea given the Celine comparisons that have already been made. Why vote Sam when Celine already exists?!

    • Sam Callahan – OH DEAR! A relatively unknown (willing to be corrected here) U2 song from the 80s, which they don’t perform live and doesn’t feature on the latest Greatest Hits album?

      Like Kingsland Road last week, this absolutely reaks of a pre-planned bottom 2 appearance in order to bounce him to the tour. Of course, his twitter support may see him clear yet but it’s a RED choice for me.

      • Actually, it could be the song from Juno, but that would be even more obscure. Neither would be good song choices. I’d lean towards it being the U2 song because it was actually a single and Louis is Irish.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Yeah, I too like Sam C for B2 this week.
        I presume XF will skate over Abi’s back injury and try to finish her off this week, with 2nd in the running order, so she’s the one for me to be eliminated.
        Also would like Tamera to be providing the finale for the evening.
        Also, think that match bet ‘tween Luke Friend and Sam C looks great value. Luke F to prevail.

        Sam C – 3/1
        Abi A – 4/1
        Tamera – (was) 4/1
        Luke F – 8/13

        Plus, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rough Copy provide the show opener.

  • Boki

    Tricky, we have still no idea of a possible sympathy vote for MissD, Abi looks like toast again, on the positive side for KR they get an up-tempo comparing to others who will bore us to death. So, if SamC gets pre-planned B2 who will be the second one? Also, it doesn’t have to be him, you can say the same for RC who are due to a bad slot.

    • Tim B

      There shouldn’t be any sympathy for Miss D. The illness was was not pregnancy-related and their song choice shows the opposite of hard work – it’s plain laziness. Because the song is the same, producer intentions will be the same as they were going to be last week i.e. get them out.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Is there such a thing as a feminist vote on XF? Will there be women who vote for Miss D because they believe a pregnant woman has a right to “pursue her dream” instead of being submitted to being told “to think of her baby /put her baby first”?

      That Sese went hospital in an ambulance for an anxiety attack could be played as a big negative. XF could suggest the idea that this is wasting the time and efforts of critical emergency response personnel and resources. The attitudes of Sharon and Nicole to Sese will also help shape opinion.

    • eurovicious

      Rather than any sympathy vote, I think viewers are more likely to just not really remember them. In pop you’re only as good as your last single, in X Factor you’re only as good as your last performance. Their week 1 performance wasn’t particularly memorable – all I remember is a lot of stuff going on around them – and they didn’t perform at all last week. They haven’t built an audience and are anonymous. I can’t even remember their names apart from the ill one – Sese, Chantelle and Kevin? Oh, and there was summat in the press about how the half-brother of one of them is up on a rape charge.

  • Heisenberg

    It’s a good song for Hannah, I hope she doesn’t get the Craig Colton staging. I found only one example – as a sing-off song on Arab X Factor.

    See 1:42 for the ultimate judge’s reaction cutaway shot!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhjpmgpiHFw

    ‘That’ Bryan Adams song for Rough Copy! Hope they’re on first – it could never be as good as Ben’s version from X Factor series 3 – do you remember Ben?!

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I suspect XF are more likely to continue their take-down of Sam B: I’ve no doubts that Sam B could sing a more powerful version of Skyfall than Hannah will be performing tomorrow.

      Lord! Completely forgotten about Ben.

  • eurovicious

    – Hana Hasanova did Skyfall on this year’s Azeri Eurovision selection, and aside from English pronunciation issues (which are par for the course) it was stellar – I’m still miffed they chose Farid over her: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5iakaqBRzc If last week is anything to go by, I suspect it’s going to be Skyfall 1 – Hannah 0, I can’t see her doing it justice. It’ll be more like Skybawl.
    – Another naff, dated, demographically inappropriate song for Rough Copy. (And for Kingsmill.)
    – I don’t know Sam C’s song.
    – I doubt Luke’s ability to master Kiss From A Rose, which is a complex, intricate song that requires nuance and emotion in delivery.
    – Interested to see what Tamera makes out of Listen (why didn’t they give Hannah “One Night Only”?) – everyone remembers it from Alexandra Burke/Beyonce. Will Tamera be able to knock it out of the park?
    – I love that for Miss D they thought “we’ll just use the same song and find a film it was in”, it’s epically lazy but amusingly pragmatic. Presumably it’s for nobbling reasons. What film is “Dreams” from anyway – “Gabrielle 2: Gabrieller”? Some naff romcom?
    – Under the circumstances, Moon River may not be that bad for Abi. It’s well suited to her, and while younger viewers won’t know it, older ones will – and that’s no bad thing at this early stage of the competition. I still think she should be doing Jaan Pehechaan Ho from Ghost World though.
    – Once again I’m distraught that no-one is doing “Life Is All About Showbusiness” from The Apple: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTKpr7dbND0

  • stoney

    Miss dynamix now around 11/10 best price to go. Managed to get a top up at 13/10. Cant see evens being available come tomorrow morning

  • Takes a brave man to take 11-10 and below about Miss Dynamix to go imo, A) they survived week 1 which was pretty awful B) they might get some sort of bounce for sympathy c) the VT actually might be positive, they could try make better use of the now “story” they have D) they might get bigger in running.

  • tpfkar

    I’ve advised laying Miss Dynamix to go for the past two weeks just on value grounds, but can’t do so again. Just too much risk of a negative reaction to missing last week, the pregnancy, that they might be forgotten, or even (not that I’d wish this) a further medical issue tomorrow which would surely see the end of them.

    Staying out of things due to the uncertainty here, but if I was forced to tip, I think Abi will be in trouble, as the producers want to clear the field for the favoured girls.

  • stoney

    They would have gone last week if they were singing. I’m sure the producers will have a vt lined up that stems any potential sympathy bounce. I mean if shelly couldn’t bounce there is no way these girls will. They took a week out to early to have built up a strong enough fan base to survive. Abi should have no problem polling higher than them. And against anyone in the bottom 2i believe miss dynamix are goners

  • Santa Giles

    Having got last week totally wrong – i really thought Shelley would bounce clear, if Kingsland Road don’t bounce this week – then I don’t know what to do!
    But, I do think that Miss D to go this week is the call. I think that with them not singing last week, and being a new group – I haven’t seen any press about them either this week…I think most will have forgotten that they are still in the competition! I think that the producers will want them out now- especially with the tour and the later stages of Sese pregnancy…and doing the same song as last week? that does seem very strange.
    I’m not sure who will join…I noticed Abi lost her glasses at the film premiere…will they go for a new image for her this week? I agree- the Moon River song doesn’t fill me with much confidence.
    I am getting more impressed by Luke – he seems a comfortable performer- but I’m not sure it is translating across well.
    And I’m a big fan of Nicolas now – the earlier analysis of the regional voting is interesting- but i just think he is the only contestant who looks like he is genuinely enjoying it and he can sing really well too – which does help. He has a lot of personality and with Zinger in his corner – I think he gets a good slot this week and smashes it.
    overall – i’m just on Miss D to go this week – if they hit b2 then they are out surely…so I’ll take just above evens for that. I’m not sure who will join – will likely do something after i’ve seen the show…

  • stoney

    Incidentally this is the week I predicted miss D would go in my 1-12 predictions

  • Heisenberg

    About the flash vote – say you vote for your favourite act on a Saturday, e.g. Kingsland last week, they finish last anyway (rendering your voting efforts quite pointless and unsatisfying) you cannot vote for them on Sunday – and as an active voter you probably choose an alternate runner to favour for the Sunday show.

    If so, how likely is it that, after surviving a sing-off, you would then revert back to voting for Kingsland the following week? Shelley was given some very positive treatment and that still wasn’t enough.

    Damaged goods, just saying.

  • Dean

    Had to check the moon river song. Nice old song but won’t connect with audience. Abi trying to be shot down. Great song for Luke IMO.

  • R

    Abi has had a truly awful news week.

    The response to her falling and ending up in hospital was very negative, including comments that she was faking for sympathy, she was nasty to Hannah etc.

    Now we have “leaks” that she’s been having disagreements with Nic, Luke & Hannah, making her seem spoiled & argumentative. Again, lots of comments from people hating on her.

    The images I’ve seen of her at the Thor premier do look good, but I’ve noticed she’s wearing 6 inch stilettos. Hardly suitable for someone just released from hospital with a bad back, and they will reinforce the idea that she’s been faking.

    It would certainly make a great VT: Abi was rushed to hospital with possible spine damage after falling down some stairs…and here she is struggling to stay on her feet as she hobbles about in high heels.

    I don’t think she will go this week (unless she’s made it clear she wants to go, which is a possibility) but she is being softened for a quicker than expected exit.

    • Boki

      Indeed, just noticing that, Abi’s miraculous recovery. There is something strange/fake about her from the beginning – looking her cover photos on her facebook page it’s like a different girl. Why did they change her looks into a hippy geek and why did she accept that? Don’t get it…

  • Dean

    Yeo Abi is either the definite aim for this week to go or she us doing surprisingly better in the votes than we expect. Most likely the former.

 Leave a reply...