X Factor 2013 Week 2 Elimination: Abi Ending?

The live show acts have their fair amount of critics. They don’t seem particularly talented or exciting even by the franchise’s own standards, and there was an obvious lack of a novelty contestant last week. But in betting terms, it’s a fascinating series.
 
After today’s tabloid stories about Tamera’s shoplifting antics (thanks to Heisenberg for alerting readers), she is being challenged for favouritism by Wee Nic and it’s nearly 9-2 the field on Betfair. Hannah, who drifted out from 11-2 to twice that price after her first week treatment is being backed down again following news she would be covering Christina Aguilera’s iconic ‘Beautiful’ this weekend. We can’t deny it’s encouraging, but as ever with X Factor, the proof is in the staging.

Week 2 gives us a chance to assess the intentions of producers who have access to the results of the first public vote. They’ll know who their big hitters are and who’s struggling – some of whom they’ll be looking to help and others not.
 
How will we tell who the neglected strugglers are? Running order isn’t as clear-cut as it used to be. There’s a 20-minute Strictly overlap tonight, which prejudices the first two acts, but both last week and this time last year, there was a noticeable front-loading of the show with big names.
 
It seems fair to assume that Sam Bailey, Wee Nic and Rough Copy polled best in week 1, and it’s probably best not to be sandwiched between two of these acts, a tactic we suggested may befall Miss Dynamix in our Thursday piece on the girlband, as it did in that first live show.
 
The girls are now a general 6-4 to be eliminated this weekend. They’re deserving favourites, but can’t be tipped at that price. Nor can singoff survivor Shelley Smith at around 3-1. The well-known phenomenon of the sympathy bounce, which ran like clockwork last year, is in the uncharted territoy of the Flash Vote. But with a song choice of ‘Single Ladies’ indicating an attempt to make her fun again, it seems that producers will go all out to help her this week.
 
Luke Friend is next in the elimination market at 5-1. A gamma boy edit during the audition stages marks him down as early fodder, though producers were relatively kind to him last week. It seems like there’s slightly less reason to keep him in than 10-1 elimination shot Sam Callahan, despite the latter’s weak vocals.
 
Producers did everything they could for boyband Kingsland Road last week, more helpful staging than the preceding Sam Callahan and a huge backing track. ‘Marry You’ is another wise song choice that plays to their demographic. It indicates to me that bosses want them sticking around for a while longer.
 
Whether they feel the same way about Abi Alton is more open to question. Despite strong judges’ comments last week, this will be the second song choice in a row that doesn’t sit well with her singer / songwriter background. Presumably her version of ‘Can’t Get You Out Of My Head’ will merely be a dull, slowed down version of the dance classic, just as her ‘Livin’ On A Prayer’ was a dull, slowed down version of the rock classic.
 
Abi’s 16-1 elimination price with Ladbrokes makes some appeal, although she may have some regional support as well as remaining momentum from her encouraging sudition edit. Nonetheless, producers have shown little interest in her since then. If that is reiterated in tonight’s show with an early slot and/or unhelpful staging, she’ll be trading at much shorter during the programme. For that reason, she’s worth a nibble at the price even though an exit at around week 4 still seems more likely.
 
Wee Nic and Sam Bailey should be safe as houses. Rough Copy and Tamera are also among the leaders in thw win market, though it’s interesting to see what impact the negative headlines have on the latter. It took a week for the “bully” allegations – made on the show instead of in the tabloid press – to send Misha B plummeting to the bottom of the vote. Meanwhile, I’d like to see some positive staging for Hannah to cement the promising song choice.
 
Let us know your developing thoughts on this week’s elimination below, both before and during the show.

56 comments to X Factor 2013 Week 2 Elimination: Abi Ending?

  • Given Tamera, Hannah, Sam B and Nicholas are unlikely to hit the bottom 2, I think Abi would be saved against Shelly/MD/Luke and dumped against KR/Sam C/Rough Copy. I think an Abi Vs KR/Sam C/Rough Copy sing-off is not unimaginable, but I’m finding it hard to envisage none of Shelly/MD/Luke hitting the bottom 2.

  • Dan

    It’ll be interesting to see where they place Shelley in the running order tonight. With the pimp slot just before the flash vote opens, potentially a sympathy bounce and a decent song choice, she should smash it.

    I can’t see any producer love for Abi. Like they did with Ella last year, they are giving her big songs for her to suck the fun out of. I do think she will stick around for a bit, probably by default if the public don’t take to Tamera because of the latest bullying/drugs/stealing story (the comments in the Mail make for interesting reading, and I suspect that a lot of those commenting also vote…)

    Luke hasn’t got a hope unfortunately. It was made very clear in an episode of Xtra Factor that Sam C had the eye candy role but didn’t set Luke up for anything. Nic the Jock has the regional and the Nan vote. So Luke to go this week in my view.

  • stoney

    i only had a tenner on shelly first announced safe at 12’s, best i can find now is at 6’s which is favourite (bwin)

  • stoney

    in response to this tread, i was ruling out abi’s chances long before it was obvious the producers wernt interested, but i cant see her falling into the bottom 2 this weekend, she isnt that bad, and the regional wont allow it at the moment

  • Kevin

    With Tamera and Hannah looking like sticking around for the long haul perhaps they might not save Abi as it would prevent a judge having three acts for too long. Wishful wishful thinking at 16/1 on my part I know.

  • Ron

    Miss Dynamix are not competing tonight as SeSe (the preghant one) has been rushed to hospital but they will be allowed through to next week’s show. Presumably that has messed up the producers’ plans for this evening.

  • Dan

    Twitter is saying that Miss Dynamix have a bye into next week as SeSe can’t perform.

    • tpfkar

      May well be that we’ve seen the last of them then – but gives the producers a real headache assuming they were the target tonight. Anyone on that Abi Alton bet (i’m in) is probably in a better position than they were a few moments ago.

  • tpfkar

    Does anyone think Sam Bailey’s vote last week scared them? I see brakes being clumsily applied.

    • Natasha

      Yeh maybe, i didnt really rate her performance tonight and agreed with Nicoles comment definatly

    • eurovicious

      I was just going to post something similar to this – I’m confused by her treatment. I’m less concerned about the fact she was on first (we’ve established running order works differently than it used to) and red and blacked (contextual, and the colours of love – plus she looked absolutely gorgeous) than I am about the fact this was combined with the hourglass and the lukewarm praise and silly argument, including Louis calling her “ScrewBo”.

      I noted the hourglass was full and thought “What are they trying to suggest – that she’ll be here for a long time, and thus people don’t need to vote?” No sooner had I thought that then producers’ mouthpiece Louis says “She’ll be here for a long time”. It’s also notable that the hourglass appeared to be full for most of the song (as far as I could tell) but ran out at the end of the song.

      The two words you take away (at least I did) from Sam’s feedback are “lukewarm” (which we opened with) and “ScrewBo” (which we closed with). It had the effect of distracting from her performance, which was great, if more low-key that we’ve come to expect.

      However, the VT was very positive and it was a good song and she sang it fine. I’m not going on record as saying they’re trying to deramp her, I’m just noting my observations/concerns. They have invested a considerable amount in her so far.

      Other thoughts
      – Love the fact we get a VT of Sese being dragged out to the ambulance in full hair and makeup. God.
      – Irritated at the heteronormativity regarding Nicholas, assuming that a 16-year-old who’s never been in love should automatically like girls and sing the song about a girl.
      – They need to take Luke Friend to the nearest sheep farm to have him sheared, dipped and disinfected – I have an overwhelming urge to run an all-purpose wipe over my TV screen, I can feel the grease trying to come through the pixels.
      – Shelley owned everything. Bounce of the century.

      • eurovicious

        Also meant to say – the theme is “love and heartbreak” and Sam said in her VT she hasn’t had much heartbreak because she’s only been in love once and met Mr Right straight off the bat, basically. That won’t endear her to a lot of people – it’s hardly a sob story, it’s the exact opposite of a sob story. “My wonderful supportive husband of 10 years and father of my kids is the first man I ever fell in love with, so I have never experienced heartbreak”

        More assorted thoughts:

        – I love Rough Copy but their performance tonight was naff in the extreme – the 90s song combined with the Fresh Prince Of Belmarsh dancing made the whole thing look mega-dated and embarrassing.
        – Kingsmill are safe, it was fun. One of them looks like Tarrant from Blake’s 7.
        – Sam Callahan rocked, he’ll be more than fine with that.
        – Tamera was excellent.
        – Luke was alone and all at sea, with fog and red – are we on course for a shipwreck? I found his performance and song choice interesting and authentic enough to very feasibly be safe though
        – Nicholas was vocally fine but it was totally boring, and yet he got praise. I was asleep.
        – I think Abi did well considering. I really like her. She has to be in some danger though. I liked it but I’m aware that that won’t necessarily be the majority view.
        – I wasn’t blown away by Hannah’s “Beautiful”, there was a lack of nuance – she undersold the first half and bellowed the second half.

        We have to build into our cogitations the fact that producers are somewhat likely to have been gunning for Miss Weetabix this week, but the fact they had to drop out so late will have thrown plans agley. There could be someone quite unexpected in the B2.

        • Chris Bellis

          For what it’s worth (and it isn’t worth much) my professional gambler relative who never posts on the internet, so I’m doing it for him, rates Rough Copy and has put his own money on them. He was irritated that his lay on MD went wrong though.

  • Joe

    Was convinced Abi would struggle tonight with another slow version and probable middle slot in running order. However instantly forgettable Sam B performance, 1st up, red and blacked plus sands of time image in background could indicate her time could be up.

  • Natasha

    Seriously oh my god Abi has to go!! Totally wrong in every way and such a depressing performance!!!

  • R

    Felt Sam was first on as she is safe as houses.
    The red & black was broken up with golden lights and there was a couple of moments where a star flashed in the background.
    Nicole’s strong comments to Sam B and KR were a lead into the Nic VT. Nicole came across very strongly as alpha judge (for the day) then was added to Nic’s VT.

    Abi is awful and won’t delight the demo either. And she’s being hidden behind umbrellas!

  • Mark

    With Miss D not being able to perform this week should bets placed on them for elimination/B2 be refunded?

  • Kevin

    If non runner rule 4 would apply also i guess

  • PG

    Tamera + Rough copy sandwich for poor Luke!!!

  • Boki

    I hope Shelley avoids B2 but it’s not looking great now, luckily caught some nice odds for Abi.

  • stoney

    Jumped on luke at 7/2

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hmmm.
    Memorable and evocative staging for Luke.
    Scripted cheesy line for Louis, set up by Sharon.
    Mixed comments, though. Too much focus on the nautical staging, perhaps?
    And very boring chat ‘tween Dermot and Luke.
    To my ears, Luke sings adequately but has a voice that lacks depth or power.
    Really want him in B2

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Are Rough Copy out of tune? They sound flat and wavery.
    Defo want to relisten to that performance

  • kinski

    Yeah they sounded pretty flat, but getting a lot of pimping regardless. Took a very small long shot on them at 66/1 for B2 but don’t see that happening!

    Good thing I got in on Abi and Luke at decent odds.

  • Carla

    X Factor by numbers at its finest for Hannah there.

  • stoney

    Not the show stopping performance hannah outright backers were hoping for

  • Chatterbox5200

    Kingsland Road – In the Strictly overlap and sandwiched between Sam Bailey and Nicholas McDonald. These things can’t be overlooked!

  • ChrisR

    Layed Shelley as she was far too short for the saturday vote so happy days… I doubt any of us saw that coming

  • stoney

    Lost a bit on luke bottom tonight but that result should sew up rough copy top group soon enough so all good.

  • Natasha

    Glad my wee Mc Nick attracted the most ‘likes’ on facebook. I know it probably isnt an indication of the actual public vote thpugh. For some reason he gets me every time, the judges comments, particularly Nicoles is a huge facor in it. If he and they carry on then i think he is in with a real chance of taking the crown

    • stoney

      I still believe he is plan A.

      • Natasha

        They did it last week aswell, I get emotionally attatched to him and its done ever so easily. He has such a wide demographic appeal, im just surprised there hasnt really been much change with regards to his odds. Before the forst live he was 9/2, shortened a bit to 4 and then back out to 9/2 again and sort of done the same tonight. I will prob leave it another week before i decide whether to go in for the kill

        • stoney

          I’m well stacked on him in the outright market with a saver on sam bailey. Wait til he gets a pimp slot then his odds will shorten. They are obviously playing it safe at the moment not letting him run away with it

  • Donald

    Missed the boat a bit, especialy after writing down early show rules, “a Group goes early” Did Miss Dynamix dodge the bullet? aw well we still got Abi running for tomorrow and Luke and wonder what betting rules will be on Miss Dynamix?

    Strange show, staging of the night the boats and easy talk after but Kingsland looking like Wham, old and dated. When will Luke gets to go home to mammy… and them boats… look forward to comments on here.

  • Stephen

    Shelley was bottom last week from position 7. I know kingsland were in position 2 tonight but do you think that the producers had miss dynamix in slot 6 due to the results from last weeks vote? I know the order has been discussed recently with reference to the new flash vote. Shelley again in the middle this week, shall see what happens.

  • Stephen

    also something else to consider, due to the order of the acts announced being safe tonight, (girls 1st, overs last), encourage voters to “save” the people they think were close to go and not feel the need to vote for the girls since they were announced first? a lot of new factors in play currently.

  • Dean

    Girls were actually 2nd.

  • Stephen

    Ah ok sorry, question still remains though.

  • sistermym

    Just finished watching the show (recorded as I can’t stand adverts. Here is my 2 pennys:
    Sam B: forgettable, emotionless and disconnected. Plus just standing there, it will start to get old. A few bad comments from the judges and bad staging could get people voting even more a la Chris Maloney.
    Kingsland road: They were miming, weren’t they? Quite surprised about the result but in terms of boybands, they are below par when compared to others on the show, even D3 were more interesting.
    Abi: Train wreck. I am backing her to be in the sing off against KR and going home.
    Nick: Maybe it is just me but I keep thinking of Jahmene when I see him (except not as good and without the tragic story) and although there seems to be a lot of love out there for him I can’t see him last to the final.
    Shelley: loved the performance and how high will she bounce?
    Tamera: Hum, okay. Got the feeling TPTB were trying to get her in and off the stage as quick as possible lest we remember she is a BAD girl.
    Sam C: Not sure I was listening to the same vocal as the judges, I kept waiting for Simon to pipe up with: Well, you really murdered that song.
    Luke: He is really starting to grow on me, shades of James Arthur who no one really noticed at first…Quite telling the similar Gary Barlow comment about not that edgy which put JA on the map. Could be the dark horse this year.
    Rough Copy: again, they were miming, weren’t they? Good VT, though.
    Hannah: Slayed it.

    Just wondering if I watched the X-factor or the Nicole Sherzinger show tonight…

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