X Factor 2013: Will they blow up Miss Dynamix?

We figured producers would be looking to ease Miss Dynamix out of the competition early after SeSe announced she was nearly six months pregnant. The first live show wasn’t helpful for the girlband, but they weren’t shot down with both barrels either.

It’s worth looking at the tactics that were used and not used, and how the job may be finished this coming weekend, if indeed it’s what producers still want.

Let’s start with the running order. The girls weren’t sent on first, a fate leading to a bottom two appearance in seven of the previous nine opening live shows. Miss Dynamix were put on third instead, still in the Strictly overlap zone and sandwiched between the two acts we hypothesised would be the biggest vote grabbers in the early weeks: Wee Nic and Sam Bailey – both of whom received very helpful staging.

The girls’ VT wasn’t obviously damaging. Every reference to their recent creation was followed up with the notion that they got on well with each other: they had “gelled” and “were like sisters”. SeSe’s pregnancy announcement was dealt with in a relatively neutral fashion though she seemed bashful talking to mentor Gary Barlow having previously hidden it.

As we had wondered in our Saturday preview article, their song choice of ‘Jump’ wasn’t credible, nor did it enable them to show off any vocal prowess. It also allowed for a busy production with distracting dancers; lots of bright, scattered lighting; and cassette imagery reminiscent of that given to Chris Maloney for ‘What A Feeling’ in last year’s final.

Still, there was some help on the backing track, and they weren’t red-and-blacked. Indeed no one was significantly on Saturday night (though Chatterbox5200 has pointed out that Lorna was for her sing-off performance on Sunday night).

Judges’ comments reiterated how well they had “gelled” and “looked like they had been together for years” though each panellist, even mentor Gary Barlow, claimed that the girls needed to have more fun (interestingly, a similar line was used on District 3 in the first week last year). It was the kind of anodyne faint praise with some negativity that fails to motivate voters in any way.

Nonetheless, they avoided the danger zone of the singoff. If producers still want to be less than helpful, what can we expect this week?

It may depend on how far they were from the bottom two. If they only just escaped, it may not require both barrels this week now that Lorna has gone and Shelley has a potential sympathy bounce (she’ll also be celebrating her birthday this weekend). More damning treatment this coming weekend may indicate they did better than hoped last weekend.

Perhaps, as with last week, the death slot will be considered too obvious a device, as Nissl noted with his tinfoil hat on. AnnaC made the interesting point that a middling draw may not be favoured in the new flash vote. Either way, Miss Dynamix could find themselves once again followed up by a favoured act or in another big-hitter sandwich.

As for their VT, we expect the pregnancy to be passed over now that it has been dealt with, though lolhart thinks it could be used against them. A both barrels approach would see hints that the girls aren’t getting on so well, and that could be backed up in the staging (by keeping them far apart) and in judges’ comments.

More likely, we will get a VT concentrating on what was wrong with their week 1 performance. This tactic was taken to its extreme for Kye Sones in week 3 last year, when mentor Gary Barlow berated him for 32 flat notes in the first two minutes of his week 2 song. This and an obvious red-and-blacking was enough to get him in the bottom two that week.

On his latest podcast, Richard Betsfactor reckoned that a bottom two appearance would very likely see Miss Dynamix eliminated this week. His argument being that a singoff save would probably see them bounce into week 4 at least, which he reckons is not what producers want.

I have to agree. But in the back of my mind is last year’s week 2 singoff, when I assumed Melanie Masson would be saved over the poorly treated District 3. I got my fingers burnt then. Is there any chance producers could perform a U-turn on Miss Dynamix and get behind them?

The show could always make SeSe’s pregnancy a positive subplot in the live shows, something we suggested for 2 Shoes under similar circumstances in 2011. Kevin pointed out that, the Irish version of The Voice featured a heavily pregnant finalist: “The whole thing was handled superbly. It was a huge feelgood story.”

It’s not our opinion that producers should be nuking the pregnant acts, just our observation that they arguably did it before and appear to be doing it again.

The need to appear not to be nuking pregnant acts may be behind the lack of both barrels last weekend – and maybe this one too. The show needs plausible deniability, and sending the girls on 3rd and then, say, 6th is going to look perfectly fine.

As with last week, it’s the treatment of Miss Dynamix that I’m looking forward to most this weekend, mainly because it’s a likely indicator of producers’ methods when trying to get rid of an act – if indeed they are still trying to get rid of the girlband. Boki and stoney have already stated they think it will happen this weekend, whilst tpfkar thinks they are a value lay instead and jay also thinks they may survive another week.

Is there any chance of a reversal of fortune for Miss Dynamix? And if not, how do you expect producers to go about trying to finish the job this weekend? Let us know below.

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115 comments to X Factor 2013: Will they blow up Miss Dynamix?

  • lolhart

    I think there’s a couple of tactics TPTB can use if they want Miss Dynamix in the bottom 2 this weekend. I think a good reference is the way Belle Amie were dispatched in Matt Cardle’s year. Towards the end of their time on the show Louis made a couple of snipes that Simon wasn’t interested in the girls and only cared about One Direction. There was also a VT (I think the week they went out) where one of the girls was “complaining” about not getting enough lines in their performances. So they had a mentor who doesn’t care about them (so they must be rubbish) and there’s discord in the group.

    They could also take a similar tact as they did with Nu Vibe and The Risk. Praise one member as being the “main man/woman” and have a VT where Gary scolds the group and says they need to try harder (Tulisa and Nu Vibe).

  • A simple “It was an OK performance, well done” should be enough

  • Alen

    I think the VT will be very important. It can be just boring, focusing on their mistakes last week or they can still talk about the pregnancy. Then there are two things they could do:

    A) They could show SeSe having some problems, having to go to the doctor, not being sure if she should continue this. Then followed by a heavy performance where the judges say that it was too much for her

    B) Or they just show Sese at her home, preparing a new room for her baby, talking with her other child, just showing that she is a MOM and shall remain so. And then lukewarm judging. Not praising their voices, maybe just saying “You really look like friends” (friends, not bandmates, see the difference?).

    I’m sure they want them off either this or next week. They can’t risk having them around the tour.

  • I think you should look out for fire.

    Something sultry, sung in the wrong key and lots of fire.

  • Chatterbox5200

    In an earlier thread, when reviewing the first live show, Andrew stated that “We were treated to more gratuitous naked upper body shots of Sam Callahan, in a packaging that left us in no doubt that girls are supposed to love him” and so it was no shock to see this article appears online today…

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/x-factor-sam-callahan-strips-2461943

    The most surprising part of the article, however, was that it appears to be trying to appeal to the Scottish vote! It stated that “The 19-year-old London singer, who says he regards himself as half-Scottish, has been living north of the Border for the last 18 months.” He is then quoted as saying “I like to think of myself as half-Scottish. I spent the last year or so of my life travelling up and down to Scotland and I have my Scottish ancestry.”

  • jay

    I think 2.6 to lay for eviction is a stand out bet bearing in mind the flashvote. Im no mathmatecian but I think stastically in a 10 min vote you are going to get many many more anomalies than in a 24 hour vote. Plus even if they are bottom of the vote on sat they have the chance of being saved on sunday. You have two outs. They may be the chosen ones to leave but as we saw this weekend if you can get through the vote on saturday night everyone elses prices drift quite nicely to leave yourself a tidy profit either way…….

  • jay

    Also, The fact that shes preganant gives us something to talk about. We know the show follow these sites to see what does create interest. Its in their benefit for now (whilst they dont make the tour) to keep them in for interests sake. Im not sure what daniel may have written about which would encourage debate without Dynamix being here.

  • During Sunday’s show, when Dermot called their name there was a pause and he then said “I don’t think they were expecting that!”. It implied the idea at they were lucky to get through and I reckon he was probably told to say it, either him his earpiece or beforehand.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    In this week’s edition of Heat (I don’t have it delivered! I leafed through it on a newspaper stand) there is about 1 and a 1/2 pages devoted to SeSe,talking about her fears that becoming pregnant would affect her continuation in XF etc.

    The story is referred to at the top of Heat’s front cover.
    It’s a story that’s out there.

    The SeSe story is the dominant one on a two page spread re XF news. The second story relates the good news re a Rough Copy’s visa application. The third story reports on Tamera denying that she “stole” another girl’s boyfriend.

    Tamera is a general 3/1 favourite for the outright, but I just don’t see her winning.
    I mean: who’s going to be voting for her?

    If you’re a girl, would you really want Tamera as a friend? She looks like a supermodel, and might beat you up and then steal your boyfriend!

    Plus: am quickly rewatching and relistening to Tamera’s performance from Saturday night. I thought she sounded a bit ropey at the time and do again.

    In particular, during 1:03 to 1:13, she is mostly out of tune and a bit flat.

  • Nissl

    I just did an article search to look for negative leaks, and it’s all about Miss D being heavy favorites to go. It’s pretty interesting, 2-3 years ago we wouldn’t have seen what seems to be widespread awareness that the producers are gunning for them. I really appreciate that you guys are willing to make your own jobs tougher by talking about this stuff.

    Given that broad awareness it’s best to be cautious; as you said, more of the action we saw last week would be advised with an early-mid slot. Planting the idea that they’re not working hard enough was a particularly good move. Their fans seem to be climbing off of them moderately, though I’m not sure if someone like Luke might still slip into the bottom 2 ahead of them this week, particularly given how motivated their remaining fans are likely to be.

    I’m also curious to see if Shelley gets B2 again. I’ve been theorizing that the “sympathy bounce” may be people who support, say, ~4 acts focusing their votes on the one that suddenly appeared endangered. This week will be a good test since very few people seem at all interested in Shelley.

  • Boki

    In my previous comment I was still skeptical about a possibility of MissD doing D3 U-turn – last year’s sing-off betting fiasco with emerged “battle of the boybands” narrative we didn’t expect at all. So I don’t exclude the feelgood pregnant narrative which could make the show more “human” in the eyes of public – e.g. save them this week if they are bottom 2, they bounce next week and finally drop them the week after to someone stronger. In that way Misses can’t say they were discriminated, at least not blatantly.

  • stoney

    If they allow them to get through to week 4 they are playing dangerously close to the tour slots, and i find it extremely hard to envisage them wanting 3 groups in the remaining 7 acts

  • eurovicious

    Did we ever come to a conclusion about the fact there’s only 12 acts and no wildcard, so no room for double “evictions” or a Cocozza or Spraggan situation?

    On German Idol in 2007, when they were down to the final 3, one of them walked out, and they just replaced him with the guy who got kicked off the previous week. (Having originally finished 4th before being brought back, he then sympathy-bounced into the final and came 2nd.) I can’t see that happening here though. Do they just have backups, as in the Goldie/Sami case? (I still can’t believe they almost put Goldie through – that would have been novelty taken far too far, well beyond the Jedward/Rylan/Chico point. She served her purpose in the audition.)

  • Boki

    I placed a small bet on 1st announced safe market, it’s worth a shot at the odds – it’s her birthday after all 😉

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I got to round to watching the Sunday results show earlier tonight – and my Kingsland Road bet at 12/1 did indeed win!! Yippee! 🙂

      Have taken the 11/1 this week for Shelly Smith.

      Who have you done? Whose birthday will it be? Intrigued…

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Am looking at that 13/2 for Tamera on the Last to Sing.

        But I really like the look of B2 and elimination for Luke Friend this weekend.

        Last week, he was given a creepy song and backdropped with a huge unflattering visual of himself.
        Don’t see the point of him being in this competition.
        They have the fresh faces Of Kingsland Road, Sam C and Little Mac.
        Shaggy Mop is definitely surplus.

        Watching catch-up and I see that Shaggy Mop was penultimate in the running order. I guess XF’s private polls showed him to be in most trouble of finishing last on Saturday, so they placed him in that draw.

        Unfortunately, it transpires they should have been giving maximum help to Smelly Shelley.

        It must occur to XF that if they target Dynorod again this week, they again might miss. If Dynorod escape B2, Smelly Shelley bounces clear and Luke Friend also evades, then they XF might end up very unhappy with their B2 acts.

        I think XF will be fine with Shaggy Mop to B2 because if a more favoured act (unexpectedly) falls down there with him, he is easy to chop, without any fuss.

    • stoney

      they often announce an act who has previously been bottom the week before for the shock factor, so thats not a bad bet

    • Boki

      Shelley was it of course.

      • stoney

        Yep as you said, its her birthday, she was bottom last week, if she avoids bottom 2, which she will if she gets a mention of her birthday in her VT, and does a fun performance, then i think that 12/1 is huge

  • Phil

    This weekend’s songs!

    Abi Alton – Can’t Get You Out Of My Head

    Hannah Barrett – Beautiful

    Kingsland Road – Marry You

    Luke Friend – Let Her Go

    Miss Dynamix – Dreams

    Nicholas McDonald – She’s The One

    Rough Copy – I Want It That Way

    Sam Bailey – Make You Feel My Love

    Sam Callahan – I Won’t Give Up

    Shelley Smith – Single Ladies

    Tamera Foster – Beneath Your Beautiful

    Initial thoughts – can’t WAIT for Shelley. Dreams for Miss Dynamix is quite a deep/low song that won’t get going properly. Abi sounds like she’s doing another dreary slowed-down ‘interpretation’.

    • Are Miss D doing ‘Dreams’ by Gabrielle or Fleetwood Mac?

      Hannah’s is an excellent choice, the lyrics are just perfect for her. I imagine her, Sam B or Tamera will be given the pimp slot.

      Abi has the potential to be a car crash and only her and Miss D seem to be not delighting demos here. Luke could be current but also forgettable.

      Shelley: YES!!!!

      • Phil

        My guess would be the Gabrielle version, but could be wrong – either would be uninspiring though.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Yeah Tim, the first week theme for Hannah of overcoming pain to become a strong, independent woman is being reinforced here.

        Likewise, Tamera’s powerful warrior woman image is being developed from the first week persona, to one where she showcases this established strength to lift the lids on the shiny façades of others and reach inside.

        It might be tempting for XF to pimp-slot Hannah but I hope they resist the urge. Slowly,slowly, catchy monkey – I’m imagining.

        Unsurprisingly, the squeezed gamma Abi is being slow-played to gradual extinction. If she’s around next week, I predict a 30bpm version of Evelyn Thomas’s ‘High Energy’ for her!

        I’m wondering if I’m noticing a parallel development with Hannah and Tamera?

        The first week, I noticed that the central image of the backdrops each featured a kind of 3-sided enclosure.

        This week it’s noticeable that they both sing chorus lines centring on the word ‘Beautiful’. Again, I imagine that they’ll be kept miles apart in the running order.

        Next week for Tamera, I predict Katy Perry’s ‘Roar’ (Fucking love that video!).

        Next week for Hannah, I’m thinking Kelly Clarkson’s ‘Stronger’.

        • Alen

          Single Ladies as in Beyonce???

          Very good choices for Sam, Tamera an Nicholas. Abi depends on the version, if it’s just another piano version it could become very boring very quickly.

          Not 100% sure if Hannah is a good choice, depends on the performance. This song has been sung to death on competition shows so it could be boring.

          I have to laugh at the male Same. I won’t give up. Discrete message?

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Just rethinking about the ‘parallel development’ with Hannah and Tamera and I’m wondering if XF are subtlely deramping Tamera via this method.

          It could be.

          Will know more during tonight’s show.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Would be interesting, for example, if Tamera was booked for second or fifth in the running order, while Hannah was allocated the pimp slop; and In addition they’re were staging similarities.

    • stoney

      Looking at Nicholas’s song, my initial reaction is safe, not going to be able to set the world alight with that song, but will keep him ticking along nicely for now

  • Lake

    Her dress is the “Topshop Limited Edition Embellished Organza Shift Dress”.

    It’s clearly a floral design, but looks like stars because of the petal shape.

    http://www.topshop.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?langId=-1&storeId=12556&catalogId=33057&productId=12361001&categoryId=223017&parent_category_rn=208523

  • Heisenberg

    A few thoughts based on current song spoilers:

    Abi A does this version and there’ll be high praise for pulling off yet another unique version of a great song, “You made it your own! You’re like a little Lisa Loeb” [SAFE]

    http://youtu.be/GA-kvZryNL4

    Positive song choice for Kingsland R, backing track set to Nigel Tufnel #11 [SAFE]

    Luke F song is a slow starter then he’ll be stamping around for the chorus just like last week – signs not good, not a strong song choice, early slot likely [AT RISK]

    Sam C – worst song choice of the lot, totally unsuitable for the demo and not the most known Jason Mraz song [AT RISK] *my stakes will be here in the B2/elimination markets*

    Tamera F song best known as a duet so it will be lacking something but it’s a contemporary uplifting song and the judges will ram home how current she is [SAFE]

    Shelley S delighting the demo this week [SAFE]

    Hannah B (this years Frankel IMHO) will be the first to deliver a series ‘moment’ but not for a good few weeks yet – Mo Farah doesn’t win races by leading in the first lap. For Hannah B the timing of her breakthrough performance is crucial, in combination with potential derailments of the Tamera train further down the line [SAFE]

    Sam B safe as houses with that song and possibly another vote topper under her belt [SAFE]

    Rough C have a very well known song and they have the vocal talent to perform it well, clearly still in favour so no problems this week [SAFE]

    Nicholas M no worries here, very well known song lapped up by the demo [SAFE]

    Miss D, I’m assuming it will be the Gabrielle song which is very well known so that’s a positive. Could go either way, hard to call, I have a feeling they won’t go in for the swift kill this week – it’s all a bit too obvious [SAFE]

    • stoney

      Sam C has way too much support to fall into the bottom 2 so early. The amount of votes needed to survive week 2 isnt great, and he could come out put the mic on the floor and just take his top off and hed sail through, of course i could be wrong but i think you are wide of the mark backing him for bottom 2 so early

      • Heisenberg

        He’s below average at best and everyone on the show knows it. If Kingsland Road are above Sam C in the show’s wish list then he’s vulnerable right now because of the demo overlap. Also, 2 contestants with the same name isn’t great for individual impact and Sam B is clearly the favoured act. Whatever happens this week, he won’t last much longer.

        • stoney

          They will 100% want him on the tour

          • Dean

            I think depends on first week votes. I think they want 1 of Sam C or Luke. Not both. So I think all depends how week 1 went.

        • stoney

          Looking at the comparisons of the 2’s twitter following and the likes on the x factor face book page Sam should be comfortably in front

          • Dean

            I think it can be deceiving though. I’m still bit ignoring how Sam was montaged through to the lives and in honesty can’t sing at all. Seems like a really nice guy, but only little girls will be voting. Could be enough to keep him ahead of Luke though.

          • stoney

            Certainly deceiving in the latter stages when large amounts of votes are needed but should be a Definate advantage at the early stages

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Hi stoney,

            Your highlighting of social media such as twitter and facebook also highlights my blind spot.

            I always fail to account for such data 🙁

      • eurovicious

        He could put the mic somewhere else an’ all.

  • Had a small bet on Rough Copy to finish bottom Saturday, had a late slot last week, think their outright price was a massive over-reaction, as a result they are now a large price to be bottom on Saturday. That along with a suiting song choice for Kingsland Road, not sure Backstreet Boys is a good for an Urban Audience like Rough Copy. Also anything with the word “fire” in it.. isnt good. “You are my fire…”

    66-1, had a small bet.

  • eurovicious

    For once not joking: last night, towards the end of a very disrupted night’s sleep, I dreamt I had a baby and immediately entered it in X Factor (right after birth). I’m blaming this thread…

  • Dean

    Haha that made me crack up eurovicious.

    I think Sam and Luke could be in danger of B2 aswell.as I keep saying I like Abi, but not sure how safe she will continue to be. Her type of musician isn’t an XF one and the audience do become bored. I think she may be safe this week, but the song is definitely a risk.

    Shelley safe. MD rightfully faves to go.

    • Chatterbox5200

      I would be wary of under-estimating the regional vote for Abi. The live shows this year are very south-centric. With the exception of Nicholas McDonald (Scotland), Abi is the only act from north of Leicestershire. She is from Guisborough in Teeside, not very far from Middlesborough, which is where both James Arthur and Amelia Lily are from.

      • Dean

        I hope Abi gets as far as possible. I think for the next couple weeks you are right, but she will be in danger soon enough. I’d be surprised if XF want her as the winner. She is very much a niche market type of musician.

        First week surprised me though as they threw a lot of praise at her. Unless XF feared she would be at risk too, I’m unsure. That said I give it to week 4 before the ‘boring’ card comes out similar to Janet treatment, but Abi will be easier to knock down.

        I’m guessing the praise for now is to ensure she gets on the tour.

  • tpfkar

    I understand that Rielle from Miss Dynamix has just tweeted “Wanna Go Home” Can only guess why she is saying that, but looking like writing on the wall.

  • TommySauce

    Need someone to show me where my maths has gone wrong, as I’ve been feeding odds into a spreadsheet and reckon if you place bets thus:

    (All each way (1/4 first 3), all stakes total cost (odds correct as of Ladbrokes on 18 Oct)

    £2
    Luke (40)
    Shelley (125)
    Sam C (50)
    Miss Dynamix (50)

    £4
    Tamera (3)
    Rough Copy (4.5)
    Abi Alton (14)
    Kingsland (10)

    £10
    Hannah (9)
    Nic Mac (4)
    Sam B (4.5)

    Minimum you can win is £55 (covers £54 stake)

    Maximum is £289 (very unlikely Hannah, Shelley and Sam C/Miss Dynamix final three)

    What appears to be general Sofabet prediction of Sam B, Nic Mac, Hannah top three would get you £140.

    This *seems* to be no risk bet with good chance of returns on most likely outcomes.

    What am I missing? (something major I’m assuming!)

    • Chatterbox5200

      I assume that the first mistake you’ve made is that the stake of £55, would actually be £110 if each bet was placed as an each way bet using the stakes stated above.

      If my calculations are right, the lowest return would be £38.50 with a finishing order of Tamera, Rough Copy, Kingsland Road.

      The best possible return of £311.50 could be achieved with a finishing order of Shelley, Hannah, Sam C or Miss Dynamix.

      • TommySauce

        I *think* I’ve accounted for that – when I say “total stake” of £4 for example, I mean it’s a unit stake of £2 each way bet (total money bet = £4), so my total stake would be £54

        I make worst outcome possible:

        Tamara (£11.50 return off £2 e/w)
        RC (£15.25 off £2 e/w)
        KR (£29 off £2 e/w)

        Total return = £55.75 (from total £54 stake inc all non-placed bets)

        I think every other combination of 1/2/3 pays out more than this.

        But as I say, I’m sure I’ve missed something vital in the calculations!

        • All 3 can’t win at once. You have calculated returns on all 3 winning, not one winning and the other two placing.

          • TommySauce

            Okay, so I’ve been confused by Ladbrokes each-way payout calculator…it churned out those figures based on stakes above. Getting impression I’ve fundamentally misunderstood each way payout?

          • TommySauce

            JScouser is dragging me kicking and screaming towards understanding – I knew I’d made a fundamental mistake and I have…assuming return is on win place and not also working out place return on each combination. Always good to check! (Ignore everything above).

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi TommySauce,

      You might be better evaluating a market (of prices) for value by calculating its (very probable) overround.
      (I’ve touched on this on the Strictly Come Dancing thread on this site).

      You got me thinking on the subject of community consensus opinions, and covering them with a net of bets.

      I’m reading through this thread and thereby coming to the conclusion that “we” consider there to be only three serious contenders for the bottom 2.

      They seem to be:

      Miss Dynamix
      Luke Friend
      Sam Callahan

      Now I don’t have a betfair account, but I’m looking at the current trading prices (on bf) for the three bottom 2 combinations that can be derived from those three said selections.

      Miss D and Luke F – 57/10
      Miss D and Sam C – 119/10
      Luke F and Sam C – 21/1

      A dutching of these 3 selections might be a value bet?

      As I say – I don’t have a bf account. Just thinking out loud.

  • TommySauce

    Forgot to say, minimum return comes from Kingsland/Tamara/Rough Copy final three.

  • Heisenberg

    Plenty of market support for Hannah B today – those days of 4/1 for top girl are long gone, never to return. She may be closing the show tomorrow. #Beautiful

    • stoney

      Good hopefully I can start feeling good about my 11/4 soon then

      • Heisenberg

        Thinking she’ll be around 6/4 top girl and 9/2 outright come Monday morning.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Talked myself into betting on her for the outright on a previous thread – but somehow still haven’t done so!

            The setting up of a classic narrative arc for her with all the crafted choices that informed her opening performance from last Saturday add up to an irresistible conclusion that the current odds for her are massive.

            I think the outright winner comes from Hannah, Rough Copy or Sam Bailey.

  • stoney

    Lol at all these ifs and buts. She will still be below mcnik in the odds

  • Dean

    Must be show closing for this support. Either that or the song choice has made for this support. Let’s see.

  • eurovicious

    Yeah, remember what Beautiful did for Little Mix/Jesy. I’m actually surprised they’ve given it to Hannah this early. Giving Beautiful to an emotionally labile “ordinary” girl with a sob story and the ability to sing it is automatic voting gold.

  • eurovicious

    There’s a story in Now magazine which, while the content isn’t that negative, the title certainly is:
    http://www.nowmagazine.co.uk/tv-news/548519/x-factor-finalists-miss-dynamix-we-argue-all-the-time

    Also contains possibly one of the best interview answers ever:

    – “What makes you different to other girl groups like Little Mix?”
    – “We’re a trio and we’re all black.”

    And there was me thinking they were four middle-aged white blokes.

    Apropos “we’re all black”, the fact DFS, erm, JLS split up recently makes me more likely to think Rough Coffee are the preferred group. It can’t be long until Miss Weetabix and Kingsmill Road are toast. (And yes, this entire paragraph was an excuse to make breakfast puns.)

  • TommySauce

    Ha. That quote stood out for me when I saw Now. At the time I pondered if anything could be read into the fact the Now special went big on the groups and relegated all the other acts to a sidebar?

  • Santa Giles

    I think that Luke, Sam C or Abi goes this week. I think that Shelley survives as the novelty act especially with that song choice and Miss D will somehow miraculously survive and leave the general public scratching their heads.
    I think that week 2 is when we see the eyebrow raising- that was slightly unexpected elimination. Melanie last year was a classic example of that. And so we the voting public need to make sure that we ring in to save our favourite from here on in – otherwise they too could be going.
    Nicolas, Sam Bailey, rough Copy, Kingsland, Hannah and Tamera have had too much invested in them for them to go out now.
    However, Luke, Sam C and Abi were all not that good last week and another average performance could see them going.
    Clearly Nicholas is the alpha male and Louis needs to make sure he goes a long way. as for Luke and Sam – Luke isn’t being styled very well and doesnt have the heartthrob/cute status. Sam C cant sing. Either one can go and I don’t think it matters much in the long run.
    Abi has a song which I think the public will tire of if she does another “original” version and murders it from behind a piano. I think Tamera will open the show and Hannah looks all set for the pimp slot with that song choice. Abi could get left in the forgotten middle zone.
    I think they can not afford Sharon to lose another act. The big return of Mrs O and its 0-2 for Sharon. They can’t leave her with 1 act this early in the series. Whereas its ok for Louis to lose one.
    And Gary and the groups….i just have a feeling that Miss D will have a controversial save or a scrape through – with Dermot referencing it again. I feel that Rough Copy will go early and get ridiculous praise and Kingsland will do a mighty final set. But Miss D will have some pregnancy chat and somehow make it….at the odds i’d rather dutch Luke, Sam C and Abi rather than just have Miss D.
    Good luck all!

  • Dean

    Predict the running order?

    1. Sam Callahan
    2. Tamera Foster
    3. Rough Copy
    4. Luke Friend
    5. Kings land Road
    6. Abi Alton
    7. Shelley Smith
    8. Nicky McD
    9. Miss D
    10. Sam Bailey
    11. Hannah Barrett

  • Kevin

    Chancing Abi to walk at 16/1 with Ladbrokes. Margins are tight vote wise so I think it is a week to try a shot at decent odds. Her song seems nailed on to be another dirge and just not convinced it will be a vote grabber. I think she is a one trick pony who already looks predictable. Best of luck all.

    • Dean

      I think they are all one trick ponies in the end but it happens Abi’s trick is one thats rather sad music. It’s nice to listen too to a certain extent but for most of the public it does get boring ( look at Janet then Ella and they started off as plan A)

      • R

        It only gets boring if TPTB put enough effort into telling the public they’re boring.
        I still have my doubts that Ella was Plan A as she was never given a personality for the public to latch onto along with the bland song choices, while the week 1 VT had Nicole calling James sexy and pointing out all the female attention he was getting (one of the themes they continued throughout the series).
        Janet was “unique” up to the end of week 2 and it took the show a lot of repeated “she’s boring” comments negative editing to pass the message onto the public.

        There are a lot of “they’d better not change her like they did with Janet” about Abi on online forums. So piano ballads maintain, but not increase, her votes.

        Personally, I’d like to hear her sing a slowed down version of Tragedy by the Beegees, as it’d be an absolute dirge.

        I think TPTB have played with a very straight bat so far this series so I still see Miss Dynamix as favourites to go. Unless we’re throwing in red herrings for any show producers who may be reading, in which case Sam Bailey to go and Shelley as outright winner 😛

  • Dan

    Miss Dynamix need to be eased out gently; it’ll be a pleasant, positive exit when it does happen (week 4?) – “I’m doing right by the baby” sort of thing. It’s too early for them to go just now though and would be too much like the producers are trying to ditch the troublesome act with a member up the duff.

    This week, Luke to go and I think that Abi will be in trouble. Shelley’s song choice is awesomely fun and should help with the sympathy bounce, keeping her out of the danger zone.

    • Tim B

      But why do Miss D need to be eased out gently? 2 Shoes weren’t when they were ditched in week 1. Miss D have already survived week 1, and I’m sure they’ll make it look like they’ve had a fair shot. If they go on Sunday, that’ll be 3 live performances they got to do for the nation. With those song choices, they really do seem like the target again this week.

    • When its time for them to go I think the last thing that will be mentioned is the baby, and definitely not in a “you need to go because its best for the baby” way.

  • Kevin

    I think Miss Dynamix are probably most likely to go but given the small percentages between acts in the early weeks the odds do not represent value.

  • R

    A few Twitter stats:

    Twitter inc from W1 % of total % inc.
    Shelley 15870 8486 2.57% 114.92%
    Dynamix 15901 9267 2.57% 139.69%
    Hannah 29367 12891 4.75% 78.24%
    Abi Alton 45870 15870 7.42% 52.90%
    Sam B 49925 25925 8.08% 108.02%
    Luke 56932 31130 9.21% 120.65%
    Tamera 58549 25549 9.48% 77.42%
    Rough 72891 33891 11.80% 86.90%
    KingsL 76089 27089 12.31% 55.28%
    Nic Mc 79103 33653 12.80% 74.04%
    Sam C 117388 43388 19.00% 58.63%

    Shelley & Dynamix are at the bottom. Hannah has twice their following but at 3rd bottom will need pimping. Abi is 4th bottom, so could be in trouble after all (although I feel she will attract more of the off-line crowd). Sam B, Luke & Tamera are mid-table but gaining new followers at the same rate as those above them. Sam C is obviously out in front due to the female contingent so may garner enough votes to be safe.

    If Shelley gets enough of a bounce to escape the bottom 2.
    If Hannah has been given Beautiful to give to give her a massive boost.
    And if Abi’s song really is a dirge.
    Then I can see a Dynamix/ Abi bottom 2 with Dynamix to go.

    • R

      And I knew those figures wouldn’t stay in table form:-(

    • Dan

      Beware the number of Twitter followers and trends; acts like Union J and District 3 were constantly trending during the competition last year but that didn’t translate into votes.

      • eurovicious

        Yep, this is well worth bearing in mind, and in 2011 Little Mix didn’t have anywhere near the number of Twitter followers of the other acts throughout most of the contest, although they did have the highest rate of growth from week to week.

        • R

          Yep, realise this. Boy groups, and acts like Sam C meet the criteria of high twitter low votes, while Sam B will underperform on twitter compared to her vote.

          Notice also that 5 of the top 6 being followed are the male acts. Only Tamera breaks into this group. Does this mean females are less likely to be followed in general?

          But, all things being equal, Hannah should be in the same ball park as Nic, not have 50k fewer followers. This could be the Scottish influence or that she’s just not catching on.
          This to me explains her singing Beautiful. Not to hype her up as the alpha female but to save her from falling.

          My figures are just a snapshot, but I will be looking at weekly movements.

    • Donald

      Beautiful could be used as a softner for next week, great comments tonight then crap song next week, (has happened before),so a careful eye on Hannah song choice next week. Small stakes until watch the show tonight for me.

  • Kevin

    Took 9/1 on Hanna outright. Signs are positive that redemption awaits tomorrow night.

  • Heisenberg

    Tamera train derailment:

    http://goo.gl/qWmZnH

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    I think I feel relieved more than anything.

    From the get-go, and on this site, I launched into a series of attack articles as to Tamera as regards her character, how it would be perceived and why she wouldn’t be carrying any of my money.
    When she solidified as favourite in the betting,I grew nervous that I had misjudged things. But it’s looking more and more not so.

    It has unfolded that Tamera is the Scheherazade of this year’s X Factor: with Tamera there is always more stories! Hehe!

    Similar with Abi. From the start, I droned on and on about her ‘nasal whine’ and affected styling. I acknowledged her strengths and why she could do well, but couldn’t drag myself away from commenting on her quiet, unpleasant voice.
    Good to see her drifting out to 16s.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      The above comment belongs below sistermym and stoney’s posts, which are below the video I posted of Tamera much higher up this thread.
      How this post landed here, I don’t know (but probably the poster’s error!).

      • lolhart

        I can’t see why TPTB still can’t get Tamera to the top 4 at this stage. They managed it with Cher Lloyd (accused of threatening a staff member with a spoon) and Misha B. I can’t see the demo they’re aiming Tamera at caring if she shoplifted or not. If she does land in the bottom 2 in the coming weeks, I’m sure Nicole would be up for a VT where they bond over their biological fathers being MIA from their lives.

        • sistermym

          I am sure it is possible to even get her in the Final 3 and the market still seems to favour her.
          However, why would TPTB bother when they have Hannah and Sam B? Both more likeable, better back story (sob story), appeal to a wider demo and by far better voices. Looking beyond the show, they will be marketable.

          I can’t imagine Syco getting behind Tamera as a replacement for say Leona just because she’s hot. I felt that Tamera was a box of bombs from her audition and was surprised they kept her on past JH.

  • R

    Couple of thoughts:

    In week 3 2011 (the second voting week), Jonny Robinson gave the “You can rub my lamp anytime Gary” response to Barlow which helped shoot him up to second place.

    Last year in week 2, Rylan had the “I’ve booked your cab in case you walked out again” quip to Barlow which gave him a vote boost. Barlow also told us Rylan was a really nice guy backstage.

    I have a feeling that, if TPTB want to keep her safe, Shelley will have some cheeky banter with Barlow to boost her vote. Probably something around her crush on Robbie Williams.

    Secondly, Richard & Adam from BGT and Jahmene have both had no.1 albums this year. The albums were released at the lowest sales point of the year (less than 20k weekly sales) and were full of covers which appeal to the older generation.

    I feel that the show is looking for safer artists who will be less trouble post show (music wise), will do cheap covers without argument, and will appeal to denture wearers across the land.
    This points me towards Sam B & McNic being 2 of the top 3. I can only (currently) see Rough Copy filling the third spot and this means they could be the ones picking up the youth vote.

  • Can Shelly bounce high enough?

    I’m not that convinced she can, obviously stats say she will but the week 1 saved acts in 2008 and 2009 both found themselves in the sing-off again in week 2.

    Surely they couldn’t save her if Bottom Two again, even if up against Miss Dynamix.

    Saying all that though I’m a lover of stats so I’ve gone for bottom two combe bets of;

    Miss Dynamix/Luke Friend
    Miss Dynamix/Abi Alton
    Luke Friend/Abi Alton

    http://www.cherryanalysts.co.uk/2013/x-factor-live-show-2-can-shelly-bounce/

  • Donald

    The producers will know voting from last week so tonight show may be a better indicator of what they have in mind. if Miss Dynamix were close to bottom last week they may well go for it again. Luke could be in danger, Louis has Nicholas and the proposed magazine streaker Sam press spin this week so no Frankie C vibe around Luke and I didn’t rate last week for Luke so Miss Dynamix and Luke for me bottom two, small stakes though, there will be easier nights to have a go!

    • Yeah, in the past TPTB have purposely left one of the following weeks’s targets to be last the act called safe. I can imagine Luke going 2nd in the running order tonight, followed by a big hitter in 3rd to impress all those turning over from Strictly.

  • Andy

    PP standout price of 1/2 for Nicholas to win the boys category.
    Any one quick enough and lucky enough to get £600 down can then have £100 each on Luke and Sam C at 7/1 Bet365.
    possible £100 risk free profit if Nic wins.

  • Stephen

    done anyone know of any easily accessible site for constant twitter, youtube and/or itunes data for all the contestants? Thanks

  • Natasha

    Im keeping a regular daily check on Mc Nicks twitter and over the last week its gone up by about 500 per day. Hannahs has been about 100 new followers per day

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