X Factor 2013 Judges’ Houses Part 2: The Fourth Cut Is The Deepest

It was hardly a surprise after Joe Whelan’s “shock” exit on Saturday night that Melanie McCabe’s heartrending fourth rejection would also be saved till last. Tim B had signposted that the final three girls were Tamera, Abi and Hannah back on September 21. At least producers spared televising Melanie breaking the news to her hard-up family.

Abi was given a gamma girl edit, her performance interrupted by an interview VT. As at bootcamp, it felt like Hannah stole the show. But Tamera’s looks and commercial potential make her a more conventional Plan A. It remains intriguing to see how both will be treated.

There was a big attempt tonight at starting the process of humanising Tamera. Nicole was a proxy for the audience when she told Tamera that “we haven’t connected yet”. Tamera was “honest” in her response according to Nicole (and by extension, us).

It’s worth bearing in mind that Hannah can perform a vital role in softening and vouching for Tamera. The emerging friendship between these contestants was a feature of bootcamp, where two lingering shots showed Hannah giving Tamera her support as the latter performed. There was no such shot of Tamera supporting Hannah. It felt then like Hannah was the moon to Tamera’s sun.

It seemed pretty straightforward to work out the allotted roles in each of Saturday night’s categories. The pecking order isn’t quite as obvious with the groups. All three acts in the live shows have varying degrees of commercial potential. Kingsland Road have been shown favour throughout the audition process, but it was interesting to see new girlgroup Miss Dynamix get extra sound production to help them through an All Saints number.

Rough Copy aren’t quite so obviously favoured but they got a nice amount of screentime surrounding bringing Kazeem back into the group, and it’s worth bearing in mind that JLS are one of the franchise’s most successful alumni. We have to wait until the live shows to see how these three acts float with the audience, and producers may be thinking the same thing.

All three have problems to overcome. Miss Dynamix are up against Hannah and Tamera, whilst the looks of Sam Callahan and even Luke Friend have more tween appeal than the slightly older Kingsland Road boys. As for Rough Copy, the fact that Kazeem has had two years of visa issues doesn’t bode well for their international potential.

What did you make of tonight’s show and how these two categories have panned out? Let us know below.

94 comments to X Factor 2013 Judges’ Houses Part 2: The Fourth Cut Is The Deepest

  • Ronnie

    Hi Daniel,
    Where do you think this leaves us in terms of a twist?
    No VT of a few breaking bad news to families – still the potential of a wildcard? Or do we have the final 12?

    • Daniel

      Hi Ronnie, great question. With ratings struggling against Strictly, I’m still surprised at the thought of no twist for the first live show. Not showing a few homecomings does leave the door open, I suppose, but they’re doing a better job of keeping any twist under wraps this year if there does prove to be one.

    • Eddy

      This could be wide of the mark, but I have a feeling Hannah’s “vocal problems” will lead to a Spraggan-esque premature departure and the promotion of a judges houses evictee (preferably from the same category – as mentioned, TPTB are gagging for a female winner) to the lives via public vote.

      Hello again, Melanie McCabe! She wouldn’t be fishing in the same pond for votes as ‘urban’ Tamera or ‘quirky’ Abi.

      • Ben Cook

        So the producers are going to somehow deliberately destroy Hannah’s vocal chords just to bring back Melanie McCabe? Come on…

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        ‘…TPTB are gagging for a female winner…’

        And this applies to both big Saturday night shows.

        On XF, 7 out of the first 8 in the betting are females.
        On SCD, 5 out of the first 6 in the betting are females.

        Would be amusing if come December, Nic and Ash are the outright winners (especially as so far they are my only outright bets in both shows).

    • Does anyone have a breakdown on the acts that we didnt see telling their families? For those who where not watching as closely.

      Thanks

  • stoney

    I dont see how there gonna fit a wild card in now, surely they would have broke the news on tonights show or the xtra factor. With no news i decided to make my move on the market last act standing, unfortunately i missed the boat on the 8/13 for nicholas earlier on today but took him at 4/7, and i just took 5/2 on rough copy, they have gotta be the best option with the gap jls have just left, the producers will be right behind them. Im not convinced the girl group will be pushed, little mix aside, girl groups usually flop hard

  • Nugg

    funny how there was exactly ONE missing VT for each catagory showing them telling families its a no !! and the people concerned would appear to be the ones the public liked Paul, Melanie etc, me thinks a wildcard might just happen !!

  • Carla

    In terms of Tamera, I also thought it was interesting how different she looked in the JH show. I said to my partner on more than one occasion that she didn’t look like the same girl. I was wondering if this was another ploy by TPTB to soften the public towards her. The stories in the press would have featured pictures of her as she looked in her auditions and at boot camp. Therefore when people saw her at JH they might not have made the connection between the girl in the papers and the girl on the TV.

    • TommySauce

      Good point Carla. Also noticed that Hannah had been treated to a makeover – gone the dark patches under her eyes and mouth – she looked much more glamorous and healthy. Noticed this before, where certain contestants get incremental makeovers at bootcamp, JH and then live show stages, versus other acts who remain more or less the same until a grand reveal and complete image change for first live show. No idea if this means anything, or in fact if TPTB have anything to do with it…

  • Nugg

    The one with 3 black guys and one blonde girl….unless I am mistaken which is quite possible

  • Ben Cook

    Digital Spy have a poll up on who you want to win, with Hannah taking an early lead, though Tamera is the bookies’ favourite.
    http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103/the-x-factor/news/a521468/the-x-factor-tamera-foster-named-early-favourite-to-win-series.html

    • stoney

      Wow looks like rough copy are quite well liked by the digital spy viewers, i thought it might take them a few weeks into the lives to attract support, my 5/2 on top group looks good bearing that in mind

      • After seeing the treatment Rough Copy got last night, I backed them top group. They are already polling well and viewers have already emotionally invested in their journey. Allowing their band member to return was a nice touch and showed a strong, genuine bond between the group.

  • Dan

    Hi Daniel – any thoughts on the finishing order yet? Would be interesting to hear yours and other commenters here.

  • tpfkar

    A few random thoughts:
    1) I’m pretty sure the returning scenes are staged, Sam Bailey spoke about phoning home the result, and it sounds near impossible to stage successfully. They are excruciating though, hope we’ve already seen the last of them.
    2) They’ve repeated the “The final 12” graphic this weekend – I can’t see the wriggle-room for wildcards.
    3) I agree there is some strange casting going on. I’m starting to see McNic as the producers’ safety net. If they don’t get any of their preferred female acts all the way, they can live with him as winner to flog records. On the other hand, they only have one serious act they would need to knock down if their favourite girl can win. Joseph Whelan should take that as a compliment.
    4) The fact that they are trying to soften Tamera so hard is a sign of how hard it will be to get her to the front; I can’t see any value at the moment.
    5) The groups category is the most open; it’s Miss Dynamix for me, but there is value there in finding the alpha group.

  • Shraine

    I’ve had £400 on dynamix @ 20/1. Don’t know if that is a good bet or not tbh.

    • tpfkar

      Hi Shraine, although I’m usually relieved to find someone seeing things the same way as me, I’ve just spotted a major problem: http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/x-factor-miss-dynamix-sese-2345700

      If they are (very) brave they will run with this as a positive and make it part of their journey. But more likely that it’s time to cut and run pronto sadly.

      • Well if that doesn’t spell imminent doom for them, I shall be retrospectively even more miffed that 2 Shoes were stopped before they started.

      • Good morning. I am finally up to date with X Factor so will come and give my 2p’s worth. Glad someone has spotted this pregnancy story… They will be supported, of course, they will be treated correctly, of course, and they will be nuked half way through, of course… We can’t have a three piece down to two, as winners of the show?! We’ve got a tour to sell. And records.

  • lolhart

    Maybe I’m wrong but I have a feeling TPTB will be trying to push Hannah as the alpha girl rather than Tamera. She comes across as more likeable than Tamera and provides plenty of material for the VTs (problems with her voice, insecurities etc). I also thought her bit hearing she got through was quite telling with Nicole saying she would look after her and they were doing this together. Tamera is definitely more comercially viable though, so perhaps TBTB will wait and see how the public react to both of them after the first live show.

    • Daniel

      Hi lolhart, I think your points are very valid. Among myself, Andrew and Dug, we are having this Tamera / Hannah debate in anticipation of our speculative finishing order 1-12 list, which to answer Dan, will be posted later this week.

      • Dan

        Look forward to it Daniel. I’m with lolhart on Hannah being the alpha girl. Tamera is too much of a risk if the bullying/drugs stories surface again and the current 11/4 odds to win are poor and don’t reflect this risk. There’s still some value in a punt on Hannah IMO though…

  • Nissl

    American reader and first time commenter; love the analysis and for some odd reason have been plowing through back seasons the past few weeks. I think you’re right that they may be floating all three groups at this point. In the US, Simon has for the second time in a row given himself the groups and started pushing both a boy and a girl group (according to spoilers, although neither had 1D tier audition editing). Why this focus on groups? Given the last three years’ experience with 1D, LM, 5H, E3, and UJ, it seems like a group that hits the top 4 is one of the surer commercial bets for Syco, even if some of those are fairly modest successes.

    Turning to your groups, it seems like each has a different demo and a few weaknesses to go alongside their strengths. And group chemistry and public appeal have often proven fairly tricky for producers to predict. So, why not give all three groups significant backing for a few weeks behind the alpha boy and girl, then take action on the hits and misses? It sounds like there is plenty of cannon fodder in the other categories to go around until then.

  • Highlighted

    Well it’s going to be interesting at the least. They kept the leaks to a minimum for once. I am only thinking of Nic to win this at the moment.

  • Alen

    All I could think about last night was: wow they are really trying to push the girls this year. Nicole repeated several times that this is the toughest JH ever for the girls and they even proved it to the public with sending poor Melanie home. Because the competition is soooo big this year.

    Further more Sharon has an all female category too with all being good belters.

    The groups are not important imo. As viewers we haven’t made any connection to them. Only Miss Dyanmix might had a chance but with the pregnancy all chances are gone.

    This leaves us with the boys. Luke and Sam are both very mediocare. Only saving grace is Nicholas. If everything falls down he will win.

    Otherwise they will finally get a female winner again. Mission accomplished.

    I had the feeling they really are pushing Tamera for a win but yesterday showed us they also have a big interest in Hannah. She was the last to be called into the top12, many many tears and hugs with Nicole and even with Mary J. Blige. Nicole mentioning voice problems will also lead to a bad week where they will make it through as already promised by Nicole.

    In the end I don’t think they care which girl wins, as long as A girl wins.

  • The groups are a mess. Rough Copy can’t do anything internationally, Miss Dynamix are pregnant and Kingsland Road are mediocre and not particularly attractive for a boyband, but may have some management backing behind them.

  • Henry VIII

    I can’t see why they’d now prefer Hannah over Tamera but two things surprised me. Hannah’s segment was 1 minute and 6 seconds longer than Tamera’s. Nichole said “I didn’t believe it” about Tamera’s performance, and Mary J.B. repeated the same, meaning that Tamera had no emotional connection.

    May not mean anything but worth noting.

  • Dan

    The pecking order isn’t quite as obvious with the groups. All three acts in the live shows have varying degrees of commercial potential.

    I’m fairly confident that none of the groups have a chance of winning this year. X-Factor seems to have a real problem attracting group talent for whatever reason leading to the creation of what often feels like acts just to make up numbers. 2011 was a particularly bad year for this despite one actually winning.

    Having a look through the various showbiz sections of the papers and online forums, there seemed to be quite a bit of love for Rough Copy, which surprised me. They will be hindered by the visa issue which will not just be limited to entry to the US. Multiple convictions are involved which will cause problems.

    Miss Dynamix were higher up on my list until I read the pregnancy story this morning. Whilst great news for SeSe, this more likely then not rules them out of the later stages of the competition and the tour next year. Probably best to dispatch them sooner rather than later.

    As for Kingsland Road, I can’t decide between them and Rough Copy which one is the alpha. I’m erring on the former but there’s not much in it. Expect a lot of noise on Twitter for them but like Union J and District 3, this won’t translate into votes and they will only get so far in the competition.

    We’re back to the voting lines opening after all acts have sung, so with the Strictly overlap, the Opening Slot of Doom has returned – first act singing will be eliminated.

    • Nissl

      Despite my comments above, I agree with you that none of the groups looks likely to win, especially not given the pregnancy knocking out MD. I think there’s a good chance they will try work KR or perhaps RC to the final four if the teens show a decent response to them in the first few weeks, though.

      The way I see it, there are good reasons that groups are so tough in general. To be good (as opposed to final four pushable) all of the members need to be at least near bootcamp soloist caliber. That’s going to be extremely rare in premades, as most kids think solo before group and there’s not exactly a burgeoning indie pop vocal group scene where interested parties could meet. I’m pretty sure this is why the few somewhat successful premades have formed in big cities and are perhaps a few years older than would be commercially ideal.

      Conversely, if you make a group out of rejected soloists, you still generally don’t have the best voices in the competition, you have no idea how they’ll get on, and you give them just a few months to gel vocally and emotionally which is asking a ton considering how long it typically takes successful rock bands.

      If they want to start getting groups to win, they should reserve some of the best talent from a crop, go in a half year early, and whittle down a field through at least a few weeks of group performances to assess chemistry and suitability for group acts before sending them off for several months of intensive training. Heck most K-Pop groups train for 3+ years as a unit before being unveiled.

      • Re the rejected soloist problem, when I heard about the new format of giving judges their categories at bootcamp, I wondered if this might be part of the thinking – you could imagine three or four really good and high-profile soloists being rejected by the mentor of their category, with cutaways to the groups mentor incredulously raising an eyebrow each time. Then we’d see the groups judge going behind the scenes and, mock-outraged, inviting the rejected acts to form a group.

        Wouldn’t solve the other problems you mention, of course, but it might get a manufactured group off to a more credible start than the traditional format of all four judges ostensibly having had a hand in choosing which soloists to reject. Would also create a nice narrative for the group of wanting to prove the soloist mentor wrong.

        • Nissl

          i want to wait until I see the second half of the challenge round next week, but I think they may be partially heading in the direction of pumping in more talent this year on USXF. My early impression from auditions is that the #3-4 girls and boys, who would probably otherwise have been rejected to clear the field, may have been grouped up. But they didn’t build the narrative you’re suggesting. (They handled the whole bootcamp rejection terribly, actually.)

          From the series I’ve watched so far, I tend to see good group members having a slightly different profile than soloists. I think you want a straight ahead, clear voice and strong kid next door likability compared to soloists who need to be more impressive/interesting vocally and have more individual star power of whatever flavor (whether “authentic” folk guy or diva belter). I’m not sure whether the producers are all the way there though. 5H from the US version, for example, came across like a clump of low beta-tier soloists with one or two demo-targeted fillers.

      • Dan

        It’s worth looking back to the 2011 series to see just how problematic the groups can be. At Bootcamp, they were slinging together rejected soloists, seemingly at random in the hope that something worked. This eventually led to Little Mix being formed out of two rejected groups that had been formed from rejected soloists. The joke here was that they were picked because they were all the same height! We didn’t hear them singing together until Judge’s Houses and they were never plan A. They won by default, simply because the other acts weren’t up to much or got thrown under a bus in spectacular fashion.

        Nu Vibe were a classic example of what happens when you cobble together a bunch of blokes at random. They had no chemistry and the viewers knew it. They were voted off as soon as the public had the chance.

        The Risk were the ultimate Frankenband, again formed from rejected soloists, mixed up with another group at Judge’s Houses, and finally had a member replaced with one from the eliminated Nu Vibe before the viewers could take no more.

        All of these sort of shenanigans just make me want to stay well away from the groups from a punting perspective at this early a stage, unless it’s the eliminations market.

        • stoney

          i wouldnt have touched this market either, but as soon as the producers bought the 3rd member back it was obvious they have plans for them to go far in the show, otherwise they wouldnt have put them through as a 2piece and then made it happen so that they are now back to a solid 3 piece just in time for the lives, if that isnt a big hint that they are the favoured group, then im losing my touch

        • Nissl

          LM worked well enough by group standards, I thought. They wouldn’t have won in a stronger year but I doubt 1D, for example, would have even gotten over the top against Marcus. And they’ve grown into perhaps the strongest girl group going vocally (not massive praise considering the alternatives, but still.)

          I look at that 2011 process and wonder whether the quick group audition round, though awful for narrative, resulted in them picking out the best group pieces. Did they do that any other year?

  • Jay

    Maybe tptb have realized in a 12 week race it doesn’t really matter who they pimp first and that it’s near impossible to get someone over the line this early. Little mix and James Arthur both came from behind with a late push. May be worth to lay the early runners

    • Natasha

      It’s 9 weeks and i think they will see how the public responds in the first couple of lives with regards to voting and then look at whether to go with plan A or not. Last year Ella was plan A but she didnt pull in the votes they expected so chucked her under an almighty double decker and went with their plan B.

  • Boki

    After watching (finally) the JHs in whole I conclude that Hanna looks like this year’s Jahmene – someone they will push all the way and abandon in the final if there is someone “cooler” available. She doesn’t have the looks but likeable with a sob story, good voice and strong emotional card to play. I regret not backing her much more but glad to have some green and looking forward to see her in the final, she deserves it.

    Tamera looks great, she can sing for sure but really likeable is she indeed not. If she gets into the final with no more than one bot2 save she’s walking it but it’s a long road to there. I have a feeling everything is carefully staged around her since they don’t want to make a mistake (like with overpimping of Ella) and will do everything to support her. However if the public don’t like her they will switch to someone else like before so first couple of shows will tell more (just noticed Natasha wrote the same, sry for repeat). I traded my stake and have a nice free-run at the moment, really pleased about the odds.

    Abi is trading on the edge of double figure and glad to skip that one, that doesn’t mean the public will not support her but at the moment she looks like 1st girl out to me.

    Boys weak this year except Nic, couldn’t get him at big odds so will keep it until the final – yes, he looks like the most probable finalist at the moment out of all 12 contestants. Took some top boy today.

    Groups I’m skipping at the moment since I have no clue lol. Sam B looks like free money for top over and Lorna righteous favorite for the 1st elimination but what about Shelly? Tim was probably right she will take the joke act burden but will they try to save her when she ends in bottom two as that will happen more sooner than later.

    Any thoughts about 1st elimination value btw? Can we predict who will get the honour to open the show in the Strictly overlap, a pregnant group maybe?

    • stoney

      funny you should say that, when i found out about the pregnancy story i backed them to be first eliminated, 10/1 there sure to get thrown under the bus

      • Boki

        Wow you already pulled a trigger on someone, I’m hesitating in a 1st round since anything can happen, the bus has to hit them properly and not like District3 last year.

  • Highlighted

    With Abi she is certainly not going to win this. I get the Janet feeling about her. She will grow a niche fan base and get a record after the show but I think TPTB will nuke her soon enough. Not sure she can even last to final 5 or so given I don’t think she’s grown a fanbase as large as Janet for instance did. My 1-12

    12. Lorna Simpso
    11. Luke Friend
    10. Miss Dynamix
    9. Shelley Smith
    8. Kings land Road
    7. Abi Alton
    6.Sam Callahan
    5. Sam Bailey
    4. Rough Copy
    3. Tamera Foster
    2. Hannah Barrett
    1. Nic McDonald

    It’s hard at this stage to know though. Things change. I didn’t connect with JA until week 2 last year. I thought like this year girls were favoured last year too but it didn’t turn out that way at all.

    • stoney

      please let this happen, id be laughing all the way to the bank

    • AlisonR

      Hi Highlighted,
      Compiled my 1-12 away from this site ready to post, then logged on this morning and have seen yours – very similar! although we differ on the groups:
      12. Luke
      11. Lorna
      10. Miss Dynamix
      9. Shelley
      8. Rough Copy
      7. Abi
      6. Sam Callaghan
      5. Sam Bailey
      4. Tamera
      3. Kingsland
      2. Hannah
      1. Nick McD

      Luke for me has no appeal with any demographic. Then I was thinking for the first few eliminees, who did they want on the tour and who didn’t they; then who is in with a shot of winning, who has cross-demographic appeal (young teen/older teen or twenties/mum/gran) and believe the first 3 have at least 2 if not three of those. The ones in between I believe appeal to one demographic but not more.

  • tpfkar

    I’m looking at Luke Friend for first elimination. He seems to hit the same buttons as Carolynne Poole last year; the producers believe in him more than any of the public do.
    Who will vote for him? If you want great vocals, pick any girl. If you want a safe cute boy, go for McNic. if you want a dangerous cute boy, Sam Callahan is your man. If you are allergic to shampoo, vote Luke Friend!

    Frankie Cocozza was bottom 2 in his first week, with many of the same traits but worse. I see some value.

    • stoney

      Not a bad shout may have a punt on this when performance orders are revealed. I just thought with the pregnancy story the value was with miss dynamix

    • Danny

      Here’s something about Luke that hasn’t got much media attention yet:

      http://www.torquayheraldexpress.co.uk/VIDEO-Teignmouth-teenager-Luke-Friend-wins/story-19490683-detail/story.html

      and what could be a very pertinent sentence: “It’s been a hectic week for the singing sensation as he’s also been to Wembley Arena performing after being scouted by BBC’s The Voice.”

      I can imagine TPTB playing this one of two ways .. either jettison him from the first show so that The Voice either can’t use him without accepting the “x-factor reject” label, or pimp him onto the x factor tour so that he can’t actually do the Voice show at all.

      • Boki

        Interesting info. Btw he’s not a “reject”, they knew about this and he got a ticket to the lives – I’m more for the pimp for the tour version.

        • Danny

          I know he’s not a reject, rather I meant that if he is first out of XF, then goes on the voice, he’ll be the guy the voters/system rejected first. Anyway, after digging a bit on tellymix.co.uk it looks like the Voice 2014 auditions were recorded last week, so simply putting Luke through to the live XF shows probably forced him to withdraw from the Voice – job done if that was indeed the motivation of the producers.

  • stoney

    12. Lorna
    11. Luke Friend
    10. Shelly
    9. Miss Dynamix
    8. Abi Alton
    7. Kingsland Road
    6. Sam Callahan
    5. Tamara
    4. Sam Bailey
    3. Rough Copy
    2. Hannah
    1. Saint Nik

  • Boki

    1. Temura or Hannah
    2. McDonalds
    3. Timera or Hannah
    4-11. clueless
    12. Lorna

  • Nissl

    So I’m reading up on the auditions now – might as well try my hand at a UK 1-12 as well as a US version since I seem to be a bit obsessed atm – and I see more to the flash voting than you all. The obvious reasons to do it are to shore up ratings at the end of the Saturday show, which I understand have been problematic, produce a few midseason shockers as you said, and bring in a bit more coin.

    However I think producers are also hoping it adds a bit of firepower back to their arsenal after a season in which the broader public seemed to catch on to their more hamfisted tactics. Most obviously, by increasing the relative volume of immediate voting, it should dramatically strengthen the recency effect (i.e. pimp and ante-pimp slots). In addition, giving the internet less time to reflect and share notes should add a bit more dampening to the graveyard slot(s).

    Contrary to popular opinion, I also think it might actually give the judges an unexpected flexibility. Now the two acts they are faced with no longer have comparable voting situations that the public can examine after the fact. I think they will try to run, at least once or twice, a narrative that the Sunday vote shows who has devoted fans or reflects a considered judgment by the audience (vs. a snap/gut judgment, which of course is also valuable blah blah blah.) While they cannot use this to overturn the Saturday vote repeatedly, I think they are feeling increasingly hamstrung anyway.

    Finally, at this point, I think they would be thrilled if the elimination market got much less interesting and some punters packed up shop. As the internet becomes more and more predominant, discussions of their tactics are seeping out of sites like this one onto general entertainment forums.

  • Phil

    I’m surprised at the lack of faith in Lorna. I think she’s really good – and a hell of a lot more marketable than Hannah.

  • Natasha

    Does anyone know or remember the thoughts on James Arthur as a potential winner at this stage last year? Like where was he generally placed by you guys in the 1-13 rankings?

    I got this horrible gut feeling Hannah may be the ‘shock exit’ and think they will do all the can to push Tamera.

    I hate to say it but she does have the whole package and know TPTB will find a way of gaining her public appeal and likeability. Leaving pocket rocket Nick and Rough copy fighting it out for 2nd and 3rd place which would be a similar outcome we had in 2009 where Alexandra came 1st and JLS 2nd

    I hope i’m wrong though!!!!!

  • Natasha

    Oh really? At this point last year I loved James but couldn’t stand Ella, her quiff, her samey samey style of singing or her samey samey singing face and shake of the head when she sang!! I honestly couldnt understand how she was favourite to win to be honest. This year, I can understand why Tamera is favourite and how a first place would be justifiable, only thing is, I dont want it to happen and want a more deserving winner like Hannah or Nick.

    I WANT

    1st Hannah
    2nd Nick
    3rd Rough Copy

    but THINK

    1st Tamera
    2nd Nick
    3rd Sam Bailey

  • Boki

    Fred has lot of markets up, top3 among others…

  • Natasha

    Thanks Boki. Stoney, bet you were gutted! Fingers crossed this will be your year! Sofabet team, when can we expect your predicaments? They are eagerly awaited 🙂

  • Dan

    Cards on the table for my finishing positions:

    12. Lorna Simpson
    11. Luke Friend
    10. Shelley Smith
    9. Miss Dynamix
    8. Tamera Foster
    7. Sam Callahan
    6. Abi Alton
    5. Rough Copy
    4. Kingsland Road
    3. Sam Bailey
    2. Nicholas McDonald
    1. Hannah Barrett

    That’s Gary to be first to lose all acts as well.

  • Highlighted

    Of the current odds there is little each way value. Maybe at a push Sam at 18/1 considering if Nic is no longer favoured by producers, Sam is probably option B. not the greatest singer but a charmer so should be liked.

  • Shraine

    Natasha I made a thread on james Arthur on 28/09/2012. I said he was the one to beat at this stage. Look

    http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=1738896&page=3

    • Natasha

      Great minds think alike hey 🙂 I remember after the lives on Xtra Factor most of the special guests they had on had said they wanted James to win which gave me confidence in my high stake bet on him. He sang with passion and put so much effort into his performance which helped. I was very happy at the result and can’t wait to see him in concert in Jauary! Hannah has a facebook fanpage but hasn’t even hit 2000 likes. Her page is never updated like the others are. Do we know who controls their fan pages, is it themselves or x factor people?

  • TommySauce

    Sure everyone saw this on the front page of the Sun today:

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/5189212/x-factor-rough-copy-sterling-ramsey-has-two-cousins-in-jail-for-murder.html

    Interesting the angle is very much the Tamara style “learnt from my mistakes, music helped me put it all behind me. Not like that now…*cough* JOURNEY *cough*.”

    Very similar tale in the X-Factor special in Now magazine this week which pimps all the groups heavily, relegating everyone else to the sidebar .

    Rough Copy gets a lot of the “used to mix with a bad crowd, music saved us” type (I assume, TPTB approved) copy plus what seems to be a nod in the direction of musical credibility “spent time in studios, done it from an early age, we’re authentic etc”.

    Kingsland Road a very predictable these-are-the-one’s-we-want-you-to-fancy “we’re all single, we don’t have much luck with girls”.

    Miss Dynorod article working hard to overcome the frankenband label plus, again interestingly, a direct hint at the demo TPTB see them appealing to: “We’re not like [that other manufactured girl band from last year whose name I can’t remember], we’re a trio and we’re all black.”

    • stoney

      This story seems looks good in my opinion, if these guys get a push in the opening show they could make the top 3, they have now gone odds on with sky bet for top group 🙂

  • Ben Cook

    I’m getting serious Alexandra Burke vibes off Hannah. People will fall in love with her, even though the producers will want Tamera to win. Nicholas will probably be one of those that tops the early weeks but they manage to “de-ramp” (I’m sure that’s not a real word) towards the end.

    1. Hannah Barrett
    2. Nicholas McDonald
    3. Tamera Foster
    4. Kingsland Road
    5. Sam Bailey
    6. Sam Callaghan
    7. Abi Alton
    8. Rough Copy
    9. Lorna Simpson
    10. Luke Friend
    11. Shelley Smith
    12. Miss Dynamix

  • Andy

    Sam Bailey being under estimated IMO, 6 teenagers splitting the votes and 3 average groups may mean Sam can stand out in the crowd, but still think Nick will prevail.

    http://www.spinsouthwest.com/page/487.504.528/477/1/

    1 Nick.
    2 Sam B.
    3 Hannah.
    4 Rough C.
    5 Sam C.
    6 Tamera
    7 Abi.
    8 Kingsland.
    9 Miss D
    10 Luke.
    11 Shelley.
    12 Lorna.

    Laying the girls category at 11/10 currently available on BetFair is unbelievably tempting, huge question marks over all 3 girls for 1 reason or the other.

  • stoney

    Really looking forward to the first live show, i dont really get excited until this stage of the competition, with high stakes in place, and nice pre live odds already secured im hoping this opening weekend goes the way i anticipate it too. This is the weekend that gives a lot of clues as to what TPTB are hoping for. Although we have some idea from the pre recorded footage we have seen over the last few months a lot could have changed in there hopes and ideas. I particularly remember the first episode from last year and smiling as district 3 were handed the death slot even though it took longer to get rid of them that i thought it would. This year with the new flash vote coming, it will no doubt revert back to the opening slot being a pretty much dead cert bottom 2 in the early stages of the competition. As viewers wont have access to you tube and re-runs of performance before making there vote in time for the sunday show.

  • Natasha

    According to the song spoilers on DS, theres no sign of Whitney!! Tamera apparently has Diana Ross ‘I’m coming out’ and in comparison to Hannah,that will not gain her connection with the public! Hannah apparently has ‘There’ll be sad songs’ by Billy Ocean which is an empotional song and one in which Hannah can, and will most probably deliver connection and be felt by the viewing public.As it is DS, we oibviously can not rely on it but I am hoping these too are right as this would be very telling and informative

  • Natasha

    Apparently next weeks theme is ‘Movies’. Who will get the almighty Celine treatment if this were to be true……………………………….

  • Tim B

    Has anyone else noticed that none of the three boys seem to have any kind of narrative/back story? Not that you need a sob story when you’re Scottish, but still.

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