Celebrity Big Brother August-September 2013 Discussion Thread

Sofabet commenters Guildo Horn Forever and Tish have already set the ball rolling on debating what Guildo calls the “uninspiring, miserable bunch of dysfunctional misfits” rumoured to be entering the Celebrity Big Brother house tonight. We’re not currently planning to be writing articles about this series of CBB, but please do use the comments thread below to share your thoughts as the series unfolds.

Daniel and I are looking forward to being back next week with our X Factor preview article, ahead of the series kicking off on August 31st.

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160 comments to Celebrity Big Brother August-September 2013 Discussion Thread

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    1st!

    Further to previous comments, my three bets on CBB have been:

    Louie at 5/1
    Carol at 14/1
    and I’ve added Abz at 14/1

    I notice Louie is already nearer my suggested price of 7/4, than the 5/1 he was initially chalked up at 🙂 .

  • Tish

    Without the outrageous campness and constant jazz hands, Louie is actually quite funny! I didn’t manage to catch Carol at 14/1 (grrrrrr) so took the 6/1 that was on offer. Betting on CBB is a lot harder than BB. Mmmmm, will have to watch religiously I think to get a better perspective of the people in there.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    I have to mention that a couple of days in and one bookie is offering Louie at odds of 7/4. Ha!

    Got stuck into the evens available about Louie and couldn’t resist the charms of Lauren at 33s. She’s the value outsider; certainly when you compared her price to those offered for Vicky or Sophie. Yesterday, I think at one point Vicky was about 4th (favourite) in the betting!! Wtf!

  • Tish

    How long does CBB run for? Is it enough time to get to know the housemates properly to make a more defined decision on the potential winner? I always find CBB a lot harder to bet on than normal BB

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Tish, think CBBs usually last between 3 to 4 weeks – that kind of time frame.

      Took some of the 14s to go with the 33s (both EW) about Lauren. Come on, babe!

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Probably top up again on Louie, at 10/11.

  • Andy

    Guildo, Tish.
    On holiday at moment but did place a few bets on launch night.
    Looking for a bit of value I placed money down on Lauren, Vicky and Mario.
    I thought Mario looked absolutely petrified on launch night.
    Can only keep updated by websites but would appreciate any info/tips from you guys.
    Back home next monday and will be hoping to get more involved if any value is still around.

    • Tish

      I have absolutley no tips at all for CBB. Normal BB is more my expertise lol. There has been a lot of very detailed intimate talk about Lauren Harries sex change which is uncomfortable to watch. Charlotte Crosby talks about what she gets up to in Geordie Shore (mostly about having sex and giving her boyfriend oral pleasure on camera!), she also farts and burps alot, both of which I imagine won’t do her any favours when trying to win the viewing public over. Sophie Anderton is coming across as very self absorbed. Louie Spence is actually quite funny but comes across as a bit bitchy. Courtney Stodden seems lovely but her voice is proper annoying. Danielle Marr just isn’t worth talking about (who is she? Ha!). Carol McGiffen is straight talking and to the point and funny when shes pissed. The rest I don’t have much of an opinion for at the moment. Ive placed a small outright bet on Carol for now, purely a stab in the dark and based on last years winner and the fact that they may share the same fan base.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Andy,

    I can only mostly echo Tish’s astute round-up of the impressions the cast members have made.

    Most revealing moment of the series for me was provided by Danielle, with her self-pitying rant in the diary room moments after learning she was up for eviction this week. Translated, it went something like this: ‘I’m a mother, so calling all mother’s: vote for me to stay’. She’s crazy-desperate for fame.

    As always, I’m worried about the power of the fan followings of the contestants from other reality shows. I am uncertain how to gauge Charlotte and Mario.

    Charlotte seems like she has a good heart. That and her Geordie accent remind me of Cheryl Cole (in her early XF appearances). But that potty mouth goes too far. She has a successful character to promote, has her demo to delight and so is bound to continue with her strange mix of sex talk and pissing and shitting. Personally, I like to keep those activities separate.

    Mario seems to be making a good fist of promoting a Mr Nice Guy persona. He’s had a lot of negative press for cheating on a (previous?) girlfriend and I think his arrival at the house was greeted with a chorus of boos. Maybe he believes he has repair work to be carried out.

    Given that, it was strange to watch him immediately hit on Carol, remarking that if her engagement (to another younger man) hit the rocks, then he would v happily hook up with her. If someone is engaged to be married then they should be off-limits, yes? I found him calculating and sleazy. Perhaps I am cynical and I underestimate the immediate appeal of Carol when she’s sozzled.

    Perhaps I’m just nervous that he is a threat to my Louie in the top male market. Making a move on a middle-aged woman is a v interesting tactic.

    I forgive Louie his bitchiness because he makes me laugh, but I’m praying there’s not a nasty streak lurking.

    Abz should never have shaven his hair. He looks like a inked-up, thuggish druggie. He’s cute as a button with hair. A funny and eccentric guy at his best; he merely conveying the impression of someone whose mental functioning went up in smoke years ago.

    If Abz was on the weed for too long, then Sophie was on the coke for too long. Paranoid, no listening skills, envious and pushy. Listening to her rationalising her need to nominate Courtney for eviction was laughable; a transparent green eyed monster.
    Courtney’s a sweetie pie and a romantic.

    Lauren has cult status written all over her. I can imagine the University student crowd printing the t shirts as we speak. I love the prices I’ve taken on her and am hopeful of her shortening further. God! she is magnetic to the eyes. Fascinating. The way she speaks, moves, the incredible costume changes.

    Don’t like Vicky or Bruce. Of the two, marginally prefer Vicky.
    She has a couple of redeeming qualities.

    Dustin has a people-magnet face and smile but has been disappointingly quiet for a stand-up comedian. He looks like someone who is in a good, happy place in his life – and that contentment has slightly dulled his extrovert side.

    I can see Ron appealing to a section of popular public opinion. I don’t see him winning or even placing, and the eviction format is crucial, but he could be around a while longer.

    • Tish

      Agree with you 100% apart from Lauren! I just find her really awkward to watch, I don’t know why because shes really nice. Can she win? How appealing is she to the viewing publc? Nadia and Luke A were both transgenders and BB winners so does this give her a possible podium place?. I’m ruling out American housemates as winners as we’ve never had an American CBB winner, ever. Im confident it won’t be Danielle, Sophie, Ron, Abz, Bruce, Vikki, Courtney or Dustin. So, all thats left is – Louie, Charlotte, Carol, Mario and Lauren. Looking forward to seeing how this pans out.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Yes, Tish, I agree that it does seem to narrow down to those 5.

    Of those 5, I have –

    Louie at 5/1 (now trading as low as 5/2 in places -yet drifting)
    Carol at 14/1 (now as low as 3s)
    Lauren at 33/1 and 14s (now as low as 10/1)

    And yet I don’t feel like I have the winner 🙁
    Instead I feel like I have a clutch of losing, value bets.
    You know that feeling?

    My (middle-aged) female friends are commenting to me that that Mario ‘is a nice lad’ etc, which suggests to me that he is playing a successful game and means I am probably underestimating him. They also seemed to be very impressed by the fact that he can cook. I think I can follow the drift of their imagination.

    Charlotte is a tricky one. She’s unbelievably crude yet remains v likeable and funny. I wonder if she is pulling off the trick of the Big Yin. Billy Connolly would swear like a trooper yet old dears wouldn’t hear a bad word said about him and adored him. But it’s harder for Charl being a girl in a society where crudity is less accepted from a girl than it is from a boy.

    I also like respect the fact that Charl gets along so nicely with Courtney, in revealing contrast to Sophie’s attitude to Courtney.

    Courtney might be the nicest, loveliest person there, yet I too wonder how much support will come for a rich, glamorous American teenager (who married a middle-aged man) with a waist slimmer than most women’s ankles and boobs bigger than the Jack and Joe’s heads!

    A likeable contestant from Geordie Shore and one from TOWIE (with their respective fan bases) are making this contest a tough and confusing call.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Oh! and a quick comment on Abz. I’m pleased to see his price contracting (after a period of driftage). The diary room Asperger’s reveal has probably helped stem things.

      Your earlier question about the length of CBB’s duration is key though. I think in a 2 to 3 month show he could emerge as a contender, but this 3 to 4 week series will be over too quickly for him to make serious headway.

      His appearance, and affectation of a speaking style, are tones too strong to overcome in a short space of time, imo.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        I’ve been close to backing Charl for days but am nervous that sooner or later she’ll get pissed and have a wee on the floor and a crap in a pot plant, or something.

        Mario has already blotted his copybook by coming on to Carol. It’s a short series and that’s probably confirmed his reputation as a sleazy player. He seems nice enough, but I suppose he’s got plenty to feel good about and a nice, smooth personality works very well for him, thank you kindly. Snazzy dresser, not a hair out of place, good cook, and clearly spoken – but I won’t be backing him.

        The zeitgeist suggests that Ron will be picking up massive popular support. Even just 5 years ago he would have been a hot favourite to be evicted this week, but times and moods have changed.

        Ron could become a rallying point for the anti-PC sentiment. The trouble with Ron is that he has a bit of a history with comments about muslims, blacks, Chinese etc. Backing Ron is like banking on Prince Philip to be discrete and diplomatic. And if Ron does manage to stop himself expressing how he feels, the side-effect is he’ll simply come across as wallpaper.

        The genuine, anti-PC, rallying point contestant will arrive one day but Ronnie doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

        Vicky comes across as a vicious little sod and she’s had the fights over the years to prove she has a temper. Charl was right to take offence on the opening night. My oh my, Vicky snarls an aggressive snarl.

        Abz price continues to contract (and is lower in places than the odds at which I backed him – which is nice to see), but he needs a great leap forward, a turning-point moment. No one seems to be making sustained inroads on the first three in the betting.

        Still have high hopes for Lauren but am bit concerned her bf price has drifted to 20s.

        Dustin and Courtney continue to impress as relaxed, well-adjusted individuals.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          On the question of whether we can draw a line through all American contestants, Tish, I’m drawn to thinking to CBB from the start of the year.
          Americans, Speidi, finished 2nd, with Australian Ryan 3rd.

          Rylan (with XF loving momentum) won, but a host of Brits trailed behind Speidi and Toady come the final vote count.
          So we know that Americans, and controversial ones at that, can come second, so is it impossible for the two best-adjusted, most contented-looking people in the house, Dustin and Courtney, to finish on the podium, perhaps even sneak a win? They’re likeable souls.

          Is there a sense that we feel closer to our American cousins, nowadays. If so, why? Was that CBB an aberration? Where the Brits, save Rylan, just such a motley crew?

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    See that the 1st eviction odds are finally up. Was hoping that Danielle might be offered at a tempting price.

    Humph.

  • Tish

    We won’t ever see eviction odds at tempting prices (apart from the outsiders). All through BB they got worse. I managed to get Sallies first eviction odds at 14/1 and she was the first evictee. Then I got Jemimas evictions adds at 4/1 and the week after that there was no value to be had on betting on the evictions so i gave up. With regards to the above, Mario has also been hitting on Sophie so he will be shown for the sleazebag he is so is a no hoper. I noticed you didnt comment on Carol. Her odds keep shortening and I feel tempted to top up my bet on her for the outright win. I was really tempted to take odds on Abz at 25/1 yesterday as i read up that he was going to be shown in the diary room saying he has aspergers syndrome but I didn’t based purely on the fact of what you said, which, I believe to be true. Had it been a longer show, he would have more time to come out of his shell and ditch the ‘wigger’ lingo!!

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    14/1 for Sallie – that was awesome, Tish! Well done.

    Mario – ha! I knew it – he is a sleazey geezer! I was listening to him explain to Ron the other night about how he didn’t go knocking for fame, it came knocking for him (that kind of line) and I thought then he was too smooth by half. Anyway, that nonsense he spouted about fancying Carol was clearly tactical. But yuck – he’s hit on Sophie! I don’t see how anyone who has known Sophie for longer than 15 minutes could fancy her.

    ‘…but I didn’t based purely on the fact of what you said,…’
    Yeesh! If he wins I’ll feel responsible for steering you away from a winner 🙁
    I backed himself at series start at 14/1. I remember him being offered at 5/1 second favourite, in a very early pre-series rumour list betting show. I thought 5s was too short but couldn’t resist 14s.

    I don’t know what to make of Carol. I sort of like her, always have sort of liked her. Brash without being nasty; doesn’t wear much make-up, which is an attractive quality in a woman; has a nice laugh.
    She is a bit of a lush, though. But then a lot of them seem to be addicts, virtual addicts or recovering addicts.
    Charlotte’s another big drinker, but funnier and younger than Carol. But Carol seems more normal, with more normal flaws and is a little less attention-seeking than Charl.
    I’d imagine going the pub with Carol, and going on clubbing with Charl.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      The thing with Carol is that Lauren has been and is being offered at three to four times the odds of Carol.

      Over the last day I’ve been back in for Lauren three times: with EW bets on her at 16/1, 14/1 and 14/1 again, with ever increasing stakes.

      Now hold EW bets on her at 33s, 16s and 14s (x3) (and oh yes: I have a win bet at 14s as well).

      Strongly fancy Lauren to win and have backed accordingly.

      Have high hopes. Am hoping for the best.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Btw: is Danielle really a 1/7 to 1/10 favourite to be evicted tonight? Is it that level of a certainty? I fancy her to go, but…

    That 9/1 for Vicky looks a shade of value. Will have a small bet on that.

  • Tish

    Wow, thats quite a few bets on Lauren you have!! I personally think she looks really freaky and I have heard a lot of other people say that or something similar so definatly not a winner (as Louie stated in yesterdays HL show she ‘is a certain taste’ or something along those lines ) but a 2nd or 3rd I’d imagine. I dont know how Charlottes bed wetting will go down, can she continue with these antics and still win???? She’s funny and a lovely person but can that side of her overshadow the drunken mess? I’m not financially attatched to her so am hoping not!! I’m still on Carol for the win and have topped up 3 times on her! I can’t see anyone low down on the betting market take the win. BTW CBB 2013 runs for 23 days so I make that a Saturday finish, poss the 14st Sep

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    14th September – blimey, that’s not far away is it?

    Yep, I’ve piled into betting on Lauren. She’s the one for me. Firmly in Team Lauren. I’ve as much staked on Lauren as all my other CBB selections and bets put together.

    I currently have the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th in the betting. I too have took a stand against Charlotte. If at any time she’d hit 9/2 or 5/1 I would have backed her each way but she didn’t, is the clear favourite now, and so I don’t have anything down on her.

    I said above in this thread,on early Tuesday evening, the following:

    ‘I’ve been close to backing Charl for days but am nervous that sooner or later she’ll get pissed and have a wee on the floor and a crap in a pot plant, or something.’

    Blow me down if later that night she didn’t piss in the bed!

    Yet her price shortens as a response!!

    As that behaviour delights her demo, then it seems any publicity is good publicity for Charlotte. This GS fan base is a big, big worry.

    I’m banking on the notion that all the mothers and grandmothers watching the show might find her beyond the pale. I (like to) suppose they are imagining Charlotte’s behaviour in their houses and flats, imagining her as a guest in their home, imagining what they would feel if she was their daughter. I think there must be a significant section of the public repelled by her habits and excesses. The disgust response in the brain is primal and deeply embedded. It developed as part of our survival mechanisms. Now, possibly I’m talking shit here myself (haha!) but I’m certain there’s something in my line of thinking. Even viewers of C5 must still be able to feel a (little) bit disgusted!

    Ah well – we’ll see.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Dear Daniel, Andrew and Dug.

    I’ve just realised the quantity of analysis and opinion I publish on your site.

    Am I now a pro bono, unofficial, guest columnist on this website?!

    And is the continuation of my role dependent on Lauren finishing in the top three?!

    Yours sincerely,
    GHF.

    • We’re all pro bono here Guildo, alas 🙂

      Haven’t been able to watch CBB, but enjoying keeping tabs on it through the conversation here. Fingers crossed for Lauren for you!

  • Tish

    What happened to your Louie?! We all make mistakes lol. Tellymix have a favourites poll up and Charlotte is leading by 31% with Courtney 2nd with 15%. Tellymix is never usually wrong and with just over 2 weeks to the final it isn’t a lot of time to change. Before the ‘pissed the bed’ incident Charlotte did actually drift to 4/1, i’m sure I saw it because I was going to take it. Ok, so, who has more public appeal (assuming these 3 are in the final) Charlotte, Lauren or Carol? Who has the biggest fan base? I’m going to risk it and see if Charlottes odds drift and then then go in for the kill. I’m not as confident as I was with betting on Sam so I really am hedging!!

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    My Louie turned out to my loo, where I wipe my arse with my cash and flush it away. However, I still have him at evens and 4/5 in the top male market (returns for which would cover my outright bet on him) though I’m beginning to wonder if he’s bitching his way into screwing up that too.

    I tend to not take some notice of the polls, but not too much. But I take your point about that massive percentage share and enormous lead for Charl.
    If she does ‘shit in a pot plant’ that would probably be the equivalent for her of a slam dunk (or slam dump). It seems she pisses and shits Teflon. Un-fucking-believable. The girl is bullet-proof..

    I might follow your future betting strategy on Charlotte, but for now I’m a fully paid-up member of Team Lauren.

    I’ll hold fire for a bit.

  • Tish

    Louie’s up for eviction this week but won’t know who with until tonights HL show. To be fair, out of all the polls, tellymix seems to be the most accurate. Digital Spy is the by far the worst and is totally unreliable!! Eventhough Courtney is a hot contender, the fact that she’s American rules her out as CBB has never had a non British winner. Yes, Charlotte does seem to be bullet proof and if she makes the final 3 with Lauren in the mix, I think that Charlotte would get more votes. Firstly from Geordie Shore Fans, and young fans both male and female whereas Lauren would attract votes from the older generation who understand her more. Im in the below 30 catergory so I’ve only just been introduced to Lauren and don’t fully understand where she has come from or what she has achieved and visually I find her her a bit uncomfortable. Do we know who Denise was up against last year in the final?

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Tish,

      Delayed backing Charlotte once, waiting for a juicier price. Not again. Luckily she’s been nominated, which means her price has held up. Have backed her in two places: EW 1/3 odds first 2, and EW 1/5 odds first 3.
      1 from 3 of the next 4 in the betting could very possibly be evicted, so her price is only going to shorten post-eviction.

      I already have excellent prices on the next 3 in the betting (after Charl). Out of that trio, I only have confidence in Lauren. I have a solid base on which to hedge, I wanted to, and it felt now is the time to act. That’s my reasoning.

      The traumas of multiple surgical operations to transmogrify from man to woman obviously took their toll on James-Lauren. You might be surprised to know that Lauren is 34 years old! (You talk about her as though she is in her 50s – though tbf she dresses as though from that era!).

      I imagine the tide turning amongst her standing with the younger generation. In general, and naturally, they have been quick to judge and ridicule. The open abuse on social media has been of someone who is a wildly eccentric and vulnerable person. She’s matured into a fairly nice person. It’s natural that the snap-judgement based ridicule will turn to guilt. That guilt will open peoples’ eyes to the fact that she, writ super size, epitomises that very human struggle for identity and acceptance. Soon it will become trendy to champion her extreme counter-cultural personality, habits and choices. She has the dry humour, vulnerabilities and stubborn eccentricities of a future, minor national treasure.

      Plus those same, lovely Welsh folk who voted for Sam may well be doubling up for Lauren. Further, she was raised in Cardiff, the tenth largest city in the UK.

      Now, If she’s out on her bony arse this eviction, it will be me eating the ridicule!

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        N.B. It was an inaccurate stereotype of mine to imply that the twitter and fb user-bases are the preserve of the young. I know people of all ages operate in these arenas; and that there will be swathes of conservative, older people who may shake their heads at the sight of Lauren.

        Ron Atkinson, for example.

  • Tish

    WOW!! A few of the hot favourites are up for eviction!!! (Apart from Carol – yay!) Its Louie, Charlotte, Lauren, Courtney and Ron! Charlotte currently leading in the ‘who stays’ poll

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Tish,

      Your opinions please.

      I hold two bets at (now) crappy prices on Louis for top male. His current price in this market is also poo.

      Bruce isn’t even at the starting gate for this 7 furlong race at the moment. I think Abz reached his summit with the Asperger’s reveal. And then there’s the other three:

      Mario – the young, good-looking one, with TOWIE power.
      But I just think he’s flawed and can’t bring myself to like him.

      Ron – who I think will attract a legion of hardcore multi-voters.

      Dustin – lovely, contented, normal and who does great smile.

      There’s a bloody great value bet amongst this little lot.

      But in the words of Michael Jackson:

      Who is it?

  • Tish

    I personally only like to bet on one person for the outright (a large amount) but to do that I have to be sure they can and will do it. But, as CBB isn’t long enough to get to know someone properly or for them to fully reveal themselves and build a better picture, then vi’m finding it hard myself. If you’re looking for another EW bet with a bit of value then I would say courtney. She is very nice to look at and slightly mesmerising even for me, and im a 29 year old female! She has so far been unoffensive, is cutley vulnerable and seems to have a lot of support. As I have said before I can’t see her winning but definatly worthy of a second or 3rd place.

    Apologies, I honestly didn’t realise she was only 34. Wow. I wasn’t being rude earlier with my comments regarding her looks, I was giving my opinion and have heard people saying the same thing both online and whilst chattin to friends etc.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Oh, take no notice of me, Tish! There I was, indulgently on the stump, for no better reason than I have a lot of money tied up in Lauren’s fortunes in this popularity contest!

      Sorry if I took a strange, political turn.

      Yep, it’s amazing to think she’s 34, isn’t it?

  • Tish

    When you’re financially attatched to a certain person it always difficult to hear what people are saying on the other side of the fence. Thats why I stopped going on Digital Spy because a lot of people on there were saying some really nasty things about Sam and how they can’t let him win! I am amazed actually, I really thought she was in her 40’s 50’s!! She has a lot of support in the house doesn’t she? Both Courtney and Charlotte said they want her to win. Charl is still leading by far on the ‘who stays’ poll on Tellymix and also the ‘Favourite’ poll. I’m growing to really like Charl. When she talks about things (just now about her friend egg socks for example) she comes across as so sweet and innocent and she doesn’t come across as nasty or bitchy and an all round lovely person. When shes drunk she isn’t nasty or rude which makes me forgive her for everything else!

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      ‘When you’re financially attatched to a certain person it always difficult to hear what people are saying on the other side of the fence.’

      Thanks for being insightful as to the reasons for my spokesperson-like rant!

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Wow! Just grabbed 10/1 for Louis to be evicted!

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I am noticing PP’s 10s for Louis has suddenly disappeared. I wonder what price he will reappear at?

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        He’s reappeared at…10s!!
        Am yet more astounded at this development than the initial one!!!

        Though it’s no stranger than Courtney being offered at 9/4.

        Feel disorientated looking at this market.
        Am even more confused than Lauren trying to value the hm’s possessions.

  • Tish

    Ha ha, was that you on Boylesprots? Well done!! You have to be really really quick to get the best odds because as soon as someone takes the bait the price shortens dramatically

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I looked at Lad’s 5/1 for Loo to go, and thought that was plenty juicy. Was considering whether to Dutch him and Big Ron – next thing: PP introduce Loo at 10s! Nearly fell off my chair, pissed the bed, shat in a pot plant etc at that price. I think some of the prices chalked up for evicts are a reflection/conversion of odds offered in the outright.

      Also, what’s going on with Lauren’s evict odds. Most firms, including bf, seem to be offering no price. Am a bit nervy-jumpy about this.

      Double also: didn’t post a comment at the time, but during BB, in the moments before what proved to be the announcement that Sophie was the next evictee, Sophie’s price disappeared from bf (only her price, no-one else’s). Simultaneously, her price with Corals plummeted from 2/1, through the range of inbetween prices, down to 5/4 (or 11/10) in what seemed an instant (before it was suspended).
      Still wondering about that…

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Here we are…

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Video’s been removed (???).

      Carol incites Lauren into confronting Sophie. Lauren is on excellent form and delivers Sophie the home truths she’s had coming. Carol wanders in post-confrontation, and distances herself from earlier remarks she had just made to Lauren where she had agreed with and added to Lauren’s opinion of Sophie.

      CBB gold: a fantastic scene to watch. Probably a series highlight, right there. CBB must have decided to withdraw the vid, to save it for full impact tomorrow.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    I’ve watched the (subsequently withdrawn) video above. I’ve also watched well over an hour of the live feed.

    If TPTB at C5 CBB, in tonights highlights-and-eviction episode broadcast the original, unedited, unaltered original video clip above and show the subsequent fall out from the confrontation then in overall probability Lauren will win the series.

    Carol is a drunken, unhappy, revolting bitch of a person.

    Mario is a rotten sleazebag.
    Charlotte could have done better for herself.
    Bruce has a scary temper.

    And Sophie Anderton is a sickening influence upon anyone who listens to her poison, anyone who lets their ears and minds become infected by her bile. She has no humanity, no compassion and is the worst kind of vicious, manipulative narcissist.
    Vile, vile, vile.

    Yet the worst moment was Louie redeeming himself with his ‘be strong’ speech to a tearful Lauren.
    Bang goes my 10/1 eviction winner!
    My strongest feelings are, as ever, reserved for the prospects of my betting slips. Lol.

    I bet C5 show Louie’s noble pep talk to Lauren, but edit out most everything else!
    Why else would they have withdrawn the video?

    Predict I am going to feel gutted watching the content of tonight’s CBB. I’ve watched the game-changing moments of the series. They happened tonight. They guarantee Lauren a top three finish, at the very, very least.

    But they will remain seen only by the small, late-night CBB live-feed hardcore.

    🙁

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Gone in again on the outright for Charlotte and Lauren; plus Dustin in the top male.

    So annoyed with CBB for obviously briefing Louie, providing him with a ‘good guy’ role, last night. However, I can’t know what will or will not be shown in tonight’s package, so am sticking with my evict bet.
    It could be Ron to go tonight but I’m not going close to the near odds-on prices for him.
    It could be a very, very tight result tonight. A blanket finish. The only safe one of the 5 is Charlotte.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Just been reading that last night Lauren was given a warning for stuffing tablets in Courtney’s mouth.

    *Sighs drowned out by groans*

  • Tish

    Yes I read that too, I also read that Cortney feels suffocated by her!! Lauren just got a bad edit too which sort of shows this, did you see? I was thinking back to who was in the final 3 when Denise won and it’s quite funny really because these people are really similar to those who I think will be in the final 3. Denise welsh/Carol McGiffen (Loose Women), Charlotte/Frankie Cocozza (young, dumb, fuck nuts), Gareth Thomas/Lauren (the only resemblence is the welsh thing).

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Tish,

    Had a win bet at 16/1 on Courtney earlier.

    I see Lauren is safe – which is a small mercy, I suppose.

    Between Courtney, Louis and Ron for eviction now.

    Courtney 6/5 to go now.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Louis bet down.

    Lauren given worst possible spin of an edit.

    Awful.

  • Tish

    The crowd reactions last night somewhat confused me!! Lauren getting really loud boos whilst Ron almost the loudest cheers!! Emma last night confirmed 2 weeks till the final. Something doesn’t seem right about Lauren, the edit she got last night was showing her to be kind of obsessed with Courtney and she came across as mentally unstable and it really was uncomfortable to watch and I can not see her her finishing first. I also can not see a male housemate coming first. I think the winner will be Charlotte or Carol and i’m undecided as to which one to invest a couple hundred of quid on. No matter what Charl does, her fans will stand by her and already she has mega support. Carol seems like the big shit stirrer but is also completley upfront and speaks her mind. She’s cool for her age and is quite funny. The same qualities as her fellow loose lady. I’ll be watching closely over the next few days! Oh, bring on X Facrtor later 🙂

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Agree about Lauren 🙁 The victim in the house is now Courtney, with Lauren the Single White Female / Baby Jane / Annie Wilkes / Norma(n) Bates / character. The finishing touch would be Lauren pronouncing to Courtney that she’s ‘her number 1 fan’.

      I had a nearish miss with a 33/1 shot, with Gina in BB; but was much more hopeful of Lauren doing the business for me here.

      Lauren was always a high risk bet and it looks as though the slow-motion car crash has happened.

      The only way I could imagine Lauren turning things around is by her self-consciously singing Baloo’s ‘I Wanna Be Like You’ to Courtney, by way of sending up her clinginess to Courtney.

      That or CBB actually bloody show Sophie etc verbally ripping Lauren apart (should it happen again).

      If Lauren scrambles a place finish, I will be surprised and delighted. As it stands, I feel gutted.

      I think, Tish, you have a better handle than me on the likely winner of this show, so I’ll be reading your comments even more closely from now on.

      Have been trying to research the demographics of the viewers and voters of CBB but have had only very limited success in this respect. The default position remains reviewing the characteristics of the procession of winners over the years, then inferring the make-up of the voters from this information.

      Also been having a think about and a look at polling biases, and been considering how the switch to C5 may have slightly changed matters.

      The single most inexplicable “reality” result I recall is Ulrika winning CBB . I was also amazed by Denise Welch’s win. I remember her taking a walk in the betting (I seem to recall her being rated as a 25/1 chance at one point) before the show began to turn her way.

      To me, Denise Welch’s victory is Exhibit A through to Z that the majority of viewers of and voters for CBB are women.
      As I can’t imagine many younger people wishing that Denise was their mum, nor imagine many of the elderly generation wishing her as their daughter, it follows that there must have been (and still will be) a massive voting block of (tabloid-reading) middle-aged women who identified with her and her drunken antics.

      Paddy’s win (CBB 8) also confirms the King/Queen making power of this voting block.

      The last two winners, Julian and then Rylan (both self-identified, camp homosexual males) also confirm the prevalence of female voting in general.

      I think, Tish, you’ve alluded to and directly mentioned Denise’s victory already and have referred to the Gold Standard of polls, the Tellymix.

      Here’s a couple of interesting poll snapshots I’ve dug up:

      Tellymix final poll. 8th September 2011. CBB 8.

      Who do you want to win Celebrity Big Brother?

      Jedward (34%, 962 Votes)
      Kerry Katona (23%, 645 Votes)
      Paddy Doherty (21%, 583 Votes)
      Amy Childs (12%, 332 Votes)
      Lucien Laviscount (7%, 202 Votes)
      Bobby Sabel (2%, 52 Votes)
      Darryn Lyons (1%, 48 Votes)

      Total Voters: 2,824

      Tellymix final poll result. 27th January 2012. CBB 9.

      Who do you want to win Celebrity Big Brother?

      Frankie Cocozza (32%, 2,168 Votes)
      Denise Welch (22%, 1,486 Votes)
      Gareth Thomas (22%, 1,475 Votes)
      Karissa and Kristina (13%, 891 Votes)
      Michael Madsen (11%, 792 Votes)

      Total Voters: 6,814

      ————————

      The 8th September 2011 and 27th January 2012 were the days of the respective finals.

      Jedward were 19 at the time of CBB 8.
      Frankie was 19 at the time of CBB 9.

      Paddy was 51 at the time of CBB 8.
      Denise was 54 at the time of CBB 9.

      Yes, time to consider poll bias.

      It’s obvious what’s happening: the voters for the teenagers are teenagers themselves, who are the demographic that is most likely to be internet literate; more internet literate than the middle-aged people, the more likely voters for middle-aged contenders.

      The Tellymix voting is conducted on the internet, and this internet polling does not accurately reflect the actual telephone voting.
      Two different mediums.
      Not everybody is computer / internet literate.
      Everybody is telephone literate.

      So the Tellymix internet polling results are substantially skewed.

      As the population, throughout the age range become more internet literate, internet polling should become increasingly accurate.

      In further relation to this year’s CBB, should it become a showdown between 22 year old Charlotte and 53 year old Carol, as you seem to think it may do, Tish, is that middle aged voters would have already known Jedward and Frankie, as they were still riding the wave from their prime time ITV 1 X Factor series journeys.

      Whereas Charlotte stars on a show broadcast on MTV that is hardly family viewing.

      Another consideration is that if Carol’s prospective voting block look at Carol and feel as though they are looking in a mirror, will they look at Charlotte and be looking into a mirror on their youth?

      Carol’s labelling of Charlotte as a ‘Geordie slag’ was perhaps unwise in more ways than one.

      Anyway, the more I think about it, the dafter my bet on Courtney was yesterday! I was figuring she may be starting to build “princess” appeal, heightened by contrast to the characters of the other ladies in the house.

      However, the princess type doesn’t win CBB, does she?

  • Natasha

    http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/big-brother/158517-celebrity-big-brother-2013-housemates-disgusted-by-poo-gate.html GUILDO. I never thought it would happen but it seems it has ha ha. No doubt it was Charlotte!!

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I don’t know. When Louis and a number of others went to ‘investigate’ Charlotte was part of that posse and she seemed surprised. I think she said at one point something like ‘I may piss the bed, but this is…etc’.

      If Sohpie thinks she knows who, then I guess she figures dyspraxic Lauren was drugged up at that time and Lauren’s movement skill level and bowel movement skills combined to make a bit of a whoopsie.

  • Natasha

    Ooooo, is there a clip? You could be right about Lauren. I can kind of understand why Sophie would think that I just completley disregarded her because I couldn’t bring myself to believe that maybe she really does need some sort of help? If it is true, then any hope of her gaining acceptance from the viewing public would sadly be flushed away (so to speak!)

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    I don’t know if there’s a clip but I remember watching as someone entered the bedroom area to drop the bombshell. I think Carol headed up the intrepid group of explorers, with Lois having a whale of a time likening the foray to detectives investigating a mystery.

    They discovered the stray poo wasn’t just in one place, as I recall!

  • Natasha

    It was on live feed last night then I take it. And it wasn’t in just one place?That is really disgusting!! To think ‘celebrities’ are more ill mannaered than your ordinary housemates is horrendous!! I am actually shocked. Do you think they will show it in tonights HL show and reveal who it was??

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Bit confused as I feel like I saw the aftermath of the mystery poo incident at least a couple of days ago. Am unsure if I saw it on live feed or on a clip.

    CBB must know who it was. They’ve enough cameras to know the timings and comings and goings of loo users.

  • Natasha

    It was published on Tellymix earlier today so assumed it was last night/early this morning. We’ll have to wait and see what tonight highlights show brings!!

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Feel a little less bruised for having watched Simona Halep absolutely dominate Kirilenko earlier. If she keeps on winning I can stop feeling so antsy about my CBB bets.

    • Natasha

      Tumble weed moment……………………..lol

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        I think I need to switch off my random thought generator!

        • Natasha

          Is that a little tip there you have for me? Ha

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Bit late for a tip on her, probably. I’ve been watching her progress for most of the season. She’s only won her opening three matches so far (our own Heather Watson was darn close to putting her out in the opener) – and I have no returns off her – yet.

            But if she wins her next two I’m in clover and should she win her next three I’ll be due at the very least part the place part of my EW bet on her at 100/1.

            As I say, there’s a long way to go yet, but she played some lovely stuff today in what theoretically should have been a tough match.

            Also Natasha, thanks for pointing me in the direction of Carol for this CBB. That bet is my best looking one I have running in this series, currently.

            I missed tonight’s highlight’s package.
            Any news about the identity of the inaccurate pooer?

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Tough opponent for her – Pennetta next up. She has a losing record against Pennetta – not that the match odds seem to be reflect this.

  • Natasha

    What sport are you on about? Still haven’t got a clue! I didn’t watch last nights highlights properly but know the poo incident didn’t get shown!! I remember seeing Carol drunk (again) and spitting her usual poisoned opinions! Its nominations day today and Lauren will 100% be up along with Carol I think. Charlotte has redeemed herself and we haven’t seen any stupid drunkeness since the bedwetting incident so think she’ll be relativley safe. Joining Lauren and Carol I think could be Sophie and possibly Bruce, maybe even Courtney aswell as she desperatley wants to go home and that featured quite a bit in last nights show

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Oh! Tennis.
      Love the tennis!

      Exciting match this evening. S. Stephens vs Serena. There’s only two players in the world who can seem to give Serena a match on a hard court. Stephens and Azarenka. I think Azarenka is unbeaten all year on hard courts and only she knows how she didn’t beat Serena last year in the final here. I think the New York crowd finally were of a help to Serena.
      Stephen’s match odds tonight (8/1) are not representative of her chances, imo.

      Halep’s price seems to constantly shorten :).

      Also think the EW terms of 300/1 for qualifier Giorgi are unrepresentative of her chances. She’s a fierce, fearless hitter. If she can keep the winner count high and unforced error count under control, she is very, very difficult to contain.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Natasha,

    Have read that this next eviction will be a double. Apparently, the eviction night show in question (Wednesday, I think) is scheduled to be half an hour longer than usual. Plus, The previous CBB (CBB 11), was also a 23 day event, featured a double eviction and yet that series began with a pool of 11 contenders, whereas this CBB started with 13 and so is well behind schedule in the getting-rid stakes.

    Could be a couple more gruesome twosome torpedoings back into relative obscurity.

    Am pleased that if this is a double dump, as there are the horrid Sophie and the grub variety of caveman, Basher Bruce, to be got shut of. Difficult to see who would want to vote to save either of them.

    Even more difficult to predict which yuckster will attract less votes.

    Fingers crossed.

    Also, I see Lauren is top price 5/1 with trad bookies now (and is an unlikely 10/3 with SJ). Fail to understand why she has shortened to such an extent.

    Also Tash,

    Am confused as to why the “nice” ones tend to win BB; but grubby ones can do so well in CBB. It’s as though there are two substantially different viewerships-cum-voterships for the respective programmes.

    Any theories?

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Frustrating times in New York! Halep looks like she’s being knocked out but get’s the break, turns things around and is about to serve, with set point, to level the match at 1 set all. Then a downpour hits the court. Play suspended. The Gods are against her.

      Want to try to answer my own poser, as pitched in the last paragraph of the post to which this replies.

      Happened to be passing through Waitrose, by the newspaper and magazine section. I saw Carol’s unvarnished face looking out at me amongst the thicket of magazine front covers.

      The magazine was ‘Bella’ (or so it alleges!). Inside I skim read a two page spread (near the front) by Samantha Brick who was “advising” *cough* on how to prosper in the CBB house (though Samantha’s expertise would only extend to getting through to being the 4th evictee (in a situation of 13 hms)).

      There was also a section detailing the behaviour of Denise Welch and Coleen Nolan, during their times in the CBB house, form series past.

      Carol obviously represented ‘one of us’, the typical Bella reader – was the front cover “girl” representing the magazine’s expertly researched idea of who is buying their magazine.

      I wondered about the reach and influence of Bella, and other such mags.

      In the second half of 2012, Bella (a women’s weekly mag) was selling on average just under 220,000 copies each week.

      Whereas the Daily Star is regarded even by it’s readers as a tittilating, sliver of fluff and nonsense, Bella is a more in-depth, more cosy reading experience.

      Carol’s been a regular on ITV1’s Live Talk/Loose Women for 13 years and so that C2DE and 55+ viewership demographic/ will consider Carol’s trials and tribulations almost like a long-standing friend.

      I think I’m developing an inkling for why characters such as Denise (1st) and Colleen (2nd) prosper on CBB, and why similar (non-celebrity) characters might not do so well on BB.

      Researching Ulrika Jonsson (whose CBB win still amazes me), I notice a number of factors about her.

      Her TV career began in 1989. She’s not been an actress playing a part. She’s been Ulrika playing herself. You feel like you know her.

      She’s not been shy about making her private life public property. In 2002 there was Ulrika Jonsson: The Truth about Men; in 2007 came Ulrika: am I a Sex Addict? Both were very intimate and broadcast on C4, the then home of CBB.

      She was indirectly very much still in the public consciousness in 2009, given the rumblings and aftershocks from the John Leslie “scandal”, from the reverberations from her autobiography ‘Honest’ and from the time that Stan Collymore hit her.

      In 2008/9 she was a regular team captain on Shooting Stars, displaying her comic timing and ability to banter with ease with the blokes.

      So: she’s always played herself, been a long-standing regular on the TV screen in the corner of the room, been married three times, been the victim of men, is a strong woman and survivor and is not shy about letting the public know very intimate details of her life.
      She was 41 years old when she won CBB,in 2009.

      Yep.

      This can be contrasted with the television persona of Anthea Turner and her attitude towards the public getting to know her.

      I remember her back in CBB1.
      She spent one evening demonstrating in great detail the correct procedure for encasing a duvet in its cover.
      And more pertinently, I recall Claire Sweeney telling her cockatoo joke. Anthea looked like an assexual bunny caught in the light of a glow in the dark vibrator.

      Anthea was 41 years old at the time and finished 4th out of 6. Claire Sweeney finished a close-up second, behind Jack Dee.

    • Natasha

      Oh, I just write a really long reply to your previous post and as I just have the lamp on in my front room i cant see the buttons on the laptop properly and kept pressing something which deleted everything and took me back to my hotmail 🙁 Grrrr!!

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Grrrr!! 🙁

        Terrible when that happens. Feel for you, Natasha.
        But turn your lights on! The big light!

        Am keen to know your part of the dialogue. I know posting a summary won’t do the nuances of the lost post justice, but it would deepen the analysis.

        It’s better when a hypothesis is challenged.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          So, anyway, in conclusion, I took my own advice and backed 53 year old Carol Mcgiffin EW at 4s.

          Out of my crazy, impulsive litany of bets, I have Carol turning a profit for me and Lauren. Carol for the win and Lauren 3rd is my big hope. I’ve given up hope on Lauren even placing but you never know, she might sneak 3rd yet…

          I’m not a fan of Carol but neither was I of Ulrika, Denise or Colleen.

          Carol’s coming confrontation with Sophie should be juicy.

          A one, two, three of:

          1) Carol
          2) Charlotte
          3) Abz

          seems possible.

          Natasha, what do you figure?

          • Natasha

            Apologies for my lack of respopnse, I have started back at college so have been really busy!

          • Natasha

            Charlottes price is drifting, only slightly though whilst Carols is shortening. The reason I think that this may be is becasue is Charlottes antics have calmed down which may be making her less appealing. She hasn’t been consistent with regards to her charachter that we saw at the beginning and this may have given made some of her non geordie shore fans build an attatchment with somone else with similar traits, Carol for instance. Carol has been consistant since day one. She has stayed the same, not gotten worse nor less quiet/oppinionated. She is still moaning, still having fun and still bitcing about some of the housemates. The things she says about Sophie a lot of the viewing public would agree with and so can relate to Carol. Shes honest, upfront and really ‘cool’ for her age. She captures several audiences for several reasons. Charlotte I image captures the younger generation and geordie shore fans, but, not all geordie shore fans will watch CBB. Abz I dont think has a chance in hell of winning. He’s quiet, hasn’t had much airtime. The show doesnt run for long enough for us to get to know him properly and for him to come out of the woodwork and shine like Sam from BB did. Looking forward to Carols confrontation with Sophie!!

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Great to have you back! 🙂

            Replying to myself on this thread felt as engaging as trying to participate in a game of chess for one!

            Nearly completely agree with all what you say, Tash
            Excellent point about Carol’s consistency.

            For a time I wondered if Charlotte appearing to be a younger version of Carol, a kind of Junior Loose Woman, might eat into Carol’s vote share, but I’ve come to consider that as a more minor factor than I once weighed it.

            I also worried about Carol’s labelling of Charlotte as a ‘Geordie slag’. With her strong regional accent Charlotte was always likely to be favoured with a strong regional vote. But that remark of Carol’s was likely to not only set Charlotte fans and GS fans and perhaps younger viewers in general against Carol but was likely to unite the people of Newcastle and Sunderland in defence of Charlotte.

            Charlotte is from Sunderland and, so I believe, is technically a Mackem (in particular), more than she is a Geordie. But fierce local distinctions (Geordies, Mackems, Smoggies etc) would suddenly count for naught when a Southerner (from Kent), a middle-aged lush, Carol, turns on “one of their own”.

            I still think that was a proper gaffe by Carol, but for most of the country and viewership it seems to have faded away from memory.

            At this point, I’m imagining:

            1) Carol
            2) Charlotte

            then a gap to an order of something like this:

            3) Abz
            4) Louie
            5) Charlotte
            6) Lauren

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            One more thing, Nat.

            If you have time to further reply while continuing with your studies: what do you estimate as Lauren’s final finishing position?

            The oddsmakers have her as clear 3rd favourite and I’m praying she could manage to finish third but…

            What do you reckon?

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Love the revealing reaction shot camera work.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Ok, c&p(ing) this into YouTube search bar will catch u the vid:

    Day 11: Nomination results are revealed in a big way

  • Natasha

    With regards to Laurens finishing position, I can’t envisage a 1st place finish, nor a second. Like you, I believe this to be Carol and Charlotte but not overly confident as to which one would take which position. I think that 3rd and 4th place is between Abz and Lauren and eventhough I don’t like Lauren, think she could take 3rd position and Abz 4th. I can’t imagine anyone else filling those 4 spaces to be honest. If Abz gets a lot more air time and we see a different side to him then this could seal his fate for a podium finish. Double eviction this friday with a noms twist tonight. I think the twist will be face to face noms. and people up could be (considering Sophie goes tonight) Courtney, Bruce, Dustin, Louie and Lauren?

  • Andy

    Back home since Monday Guildo but been under the weather.
    🙁

    Missed half of the CBB series but have watched the last 2 nights, Carol, Charlotte and Louis are all Love/Hate, Lauren is freaky yet likable and I think top 3 highly likely. not seen to much of Abz and Mario but I don’t think they have made that much of a impact. Courtney’s price of 40/1 is a surprise, She is rated highly on the thisisbigbrother poll and comments on the mailonline support her as well.
    I fail to see any of others making the final.
    10 nights until the final and I am going a female 123.
    Charlotte.
    Lauren.
    Carol.
    I will probably change my mind a few times over the next week or so.

    I see Sophie as cannon fodder tonight and happily piled into the even money available on Monday, might be booking another holiday if she gets the chop later.
    🙂

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Andy,

      Do you have Carol down in third because she is continually drunk, horrible, bitchy and spiteful?

      Well done with Sophie and your extra holidays! 🙂

      Looked at the evens, but worry about taking short prices early in CBB / BB evictions.

  • Natasha

    One thing I will say is the situation happening with Carol on tonights HL show is the same situation Sam was purposley put in and may have been the decisive factor for his victory. He was ‘evicted’ (Devious Dexter the magician) but sent to a safe room to watch the other housemates, only to re enter and cause havoc!

  • Andy

    PHEW.
    Couldn’t figure out if it was brave or stupid dumping on Sophie for eviction.
    Probably a bit of both.
    Virtually blind and just trusting my instincts but could not believe she was even money.
    Very good night.
    Back in the game.

  • Andy

    You have summed Carol up nicely there Guildo.
    The loose women connection is a obvious concern but I am not sure she will pick up many neutral BB supporters.
    I honestly believed Denise Walsh deserved to win last year, She was very entertaining and came in for the sympathy vote after getting a hard time after pulling down Karissa Shannon’s pyjama bottoms.
    Coleen came 2nd in a very weak field.
    I see Carol’s price has been shortening again today but I am not going to take the bait just yet.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Andy,

      Just read your analysis of my analysis.
      My instant impression is that you are right and that I am wrong.
      You take things to a deeper and finer level of analysis.

      If Carol is underpriced does this mean that Charlotte is overpriced?

      Or is there someone else that you have a punter’s eye on?

  • Paolobow

    Hi – this is my debut comment on the site. It’s great stuff!

    I love betting on BB, CBB, X Factor, Eurovision and SPOTY.

    On reality TV though I try not to watch any of it (luckily I suppose!) – I base all my betting on studying the markets (esp. interesting market moves), polls (esp. interesting movements in the polls), Twitter and.. Sofabet. So I really enjoy the comments on here.

    I am just wondering what your guys’ knowledge of double evictions is in relation to the first eviction of the double – is it always the one with the least votes that goes first? Or is there no set rule and could theoretically it be the one with the second least amount of votes that goes first? Not knowing this has always made me nervous betting on the next eviction when it’s a double eviction – TPTB could stich me up!

  • Andy

    Hi Guildo.
    I am keeping Charlotte and Lauren both onside but Charlotte is obviously and almost embarrassingly playing up to the camera, this may go against her.
    Mario making a positive impact and a few friends saying how much they are warming to him.

    Read the best rated comments on this article, I don’t think these comments should not be ignored.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2411839/Carol-McGiffin-returns-Celebrity-Big-Brother-housemates-evicted–puts-Courtney-nomination.html

    50/1 on Courtney is almost a painless saver and its worth remembering that American Ashley Roberts came within 1 % of clinching IACGMOOH last year, Courtney is not quite as classy as Ashley though.

    Back to tomorrow and I have already pumped some of last nights hard earned money on to Dustin for the CBB BIN @ 7/4.
    I get almost the same feeling with Dustin that I had with Sophie last night and it is simply, Who is going to vote for him

  • Andy

    Hi Paolobow.
    Have no fear, the person with the least votes will always get evicted 1st.

  • Paolobow

    Thanks Andy – I trust you.. But also how do you know??

  • Andy.

    The host Emma Willis always say’s,
    The person with the least votes and 1st evicted is ????

  • Paolobow

    Looking forward to getting stuck in!

  • Andy

    Best of luck Paolobow.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Thinking on some more about the poll biases I think I identified and bearing in mind, Andy, your insightful critique of my points, I am wondering upon whom the older female vote will cluster, if not Carol?

    Louie is her number one partner in sour-faced bitchiness, so the middle-aged supercharged-campity of Louie will probably not be enough to overcome his sometimes vicious attitude and attract the votes that up-for-grabs,

    Lauren is as low as 9/4 for the outright now.
    9/4 second favourite with Hills for the whole shebang.
    This astounds me. She had drifted out to 10s last week and there is no reason whatsoever, imo, why she shouldn’t still be at that mark, or have drifted a little further even.
    I’ve followed her progress v closely (live feed, highlights show, eviction shows, media articles etc), have a silly amount of money on her at a raft of silly prices, would srceam myself horse with delight if she finishes top three, but I just can’t help feel that 9/4 is an absolute nonsense of a price.

    I speculate that high profile press splashes, such as the Russell Brand affair, have given her name-check fame and rocketed her profile. People are plunging on her across the board on the basis of this, perhaps?
    Or is there CBB voting information available to people, who are acting upon it?

    I’m looking at “nice-guy” Abz as someone who may transpire to have hidden support.
    On live feed, Mario has revealed himself a number of times to be a bit of a s**t. However, as this is always whitewashed from existence in the evening highlights show,perhaps this doesn’t matter.

    As a younger, nicer Loose Woman, is it Charlotte who may be the one to benefit?

  • Travis Baines

    If you place a bet on BB do you get to win if your pick places 1st/2nd/3rd?! Sorry, new to this betting milarcky.

    • Hi Travis, and welcome to Sofabet! (Welcome, too, Paolobow – great to have you on board).

      In the outright winner market, you can bet to win or each-way. In a simple win bet, you get nothing for 2nd/3rd. An each-way bet consists of two parts – one simple win bet, and one bet to “place”, which usually means 1st/2nd/3rd. This place part of the bet is settled at a fraction of the odds of the win bet – usually either 1/4 or 1/5, you need to check with the individual bookmaker what fraction of the odds and how many places (and also if they offer each-way terms at all, not all do).

      You also often also have the option of betting just to place. Look out for the “top 3 finish” market.

  • Andy

    IMO Guildo I now believe that Lauren is now in pole position and her short price is justified, I have her top of my trio of females (males?) I commented on a couple of days ago with Charlotte slipping into 2nd. I watched launch night and placed a small amount on her at 31/1 with betfair simply because she was unique. It is very difficult to pick a winner just on appearance without even getting to know the personality yet after watching a few more shows I now sense a weakness & vulnerability that will appeal to many viewers given that the other housemates that are all secure, self-assured & confident.
    She seems solitary whereas the other housemates have gelled and connected and this makes her standout.
    She hasn’t exactly set the house on fire but then again neither did Sam and he pulled it off against much bigger characters.
    She’s just different.

    I have gone out on a limb tonight.
    When I got home Monday and saw Sophie up for eviction and even money available, the 1st thought came to my head was (who is going to vote for her ?) after seeing the 7 up for eviction tonight I had exactly the same thought about Dustin.
    Bruce Favourite and rightly so after his tantrums this week but I genuinely believe that a famous British soap star should be able to pull in more votes than a lifeless American who the vast majority of the voting public have never heard of.
    I have bet the maximum I was allowed with 6 high street bookmakers at prices varying from 7/4 down to 11/8.
    best of luck if you are involved in tonight’s eviction.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Andy, that’s an orchestra of angels to my ears!
      Bless you! And bless your 31/1 bet! 🙂
      I remember you mentioning you’d backed Lauren at the outset. 🙂

      There’s a million different ways of assessing Lauren, just as there seems to be a million different people and creatures that she proves a visual likeness to.
      They all seem to have a validity or degree of truth.

      I seem to be too involved punting-wise in her to be subjective. My opinion is either exaggeratedly swinging one way or the other.

      The most revealing clip I’ve seen on her yet is this one:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lOlkH4sL8g

      It is a funny and ludicrous scene but I’m back to feeling very sorry for her. (She’s 35 but seems to still be a child, with areas of trauma, severe learning difficulties and (sometimes understandable, sometimes not) extreme bloody selfishness.)

      On tonight’s eviction, I surprised myself by jumping on that 2/5 that both Dustin and Bruce are goners in this double eviction. Don’t back many 2/5 pokes.

      Here’s hoping, Andy, that that’s the order in which they go.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Am back in and showing the above video to a few friends.
        We’ve watched it a few times, now.
        They love it and think Lauren is hysterically funny.
        Though I am surprised that they find Courtney’s laugh really irritating.

  • Andy

    ”I love it when a plan comes together”
    Well done Guild.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I tip my baseball cat to you, Hannibal – fortune favours the shrewd and bold.
      You sussed out the vote-to-save contest v nicely.

      Only sadness for me tonight was watching the hatchet job on Courtney 🙁

      On BBBOTS, Sophie Anderton reaching new heights of manipulative hypocrisy.
      Especially with her big up of Lauren to be crowned the winner. Lol.

      Was also pleased to see an old girl in the audience screaming for a Lauren win! Rylan reacted with delight to this, as well.
      And this was followed by a BBBOTS stutter-rap-styley video with Lauren as the star turn!

      🙂

  • Travis Baines

    Obviously she’s the favourite to win but I can’t see any other winner aside from Charlotte. She’s got twice as many twitter followers as the other house mates and the similarities between Geordie Shore and BigB mean that most of her fans will be watching/voting for her. If I’m missing something here I’d love someone to talk me out of betting the bank on Charlotte @ 7/4…

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      A question you could ask yourself is: as I am new to this betting milarcky, why do I want to bet the bank with my first bet?

      I hope I don’t sound like a representative of GamCare!

      • Travis Baines

        LOL I suppose when you put it like that :p I should probably make it clear that compared to my normal betting range ‘the bank’ is in the region of £20 haha. Charlotte just seems too popular to not back. I dunno how her fans sync in with the BB voting demographic though – quite a few of her fanatics on twitter are worryingly young…

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Ah!
          Was a bit worried you were ready to remortage the house!

          I agree that Charlotte is at the very least a top two lock, and that her price to win looks a super juicy tempter to hook up with.
          I’m thinking along similar fishing lines myself.

          If you are actively seeking counter-arguments and awareness of potential pitfalls, then I can try to suggest some to mull over – before dismissing them?! Lol 🙂

          1) Lack of producer love – reality in reality TV can be defined by the edit. What is shown and perceived in CBB is largely defined by the edit. Luckily for Charlotte she has producer love in spades from the CBB executive level.

          Early on in the series, on the late night-shift live feed, Sophie was holding poisonous court in the bedroom, calling Lauren for having ‘gungy eyes’ likening her to a monster out of ‘The Exorcist’. Charlotte and Mario were laughing along and beginning to chip in. Bruce was woken and stormed to the bedroom to bawl at Lauren.

          Luckily for Sophie only a skilfully edited was shown on nest day’s main highlights programme. The comments never made the edit. Luckily for Sophie, Charlotte and Mario were involved. As has become gradually more and more apparent, Charlotte and Mario have big-time producer love. Protecting Charlotte and Mario meant protecting Sophie.

          Tonight on late-night live feed, Charlotte was demonstrating fanny farts. Will this episode make the light of highlights? Not a chance.
          But without producer love, that episode, if aired, could make that 7/4 look less generous.

          So, yes Charlotte has producer love; she and Mario represent the opportunity to increase the number of younger viewers who watch the programme. This is an advertising-led Channel 5 CBB trend, possibly.

          2) Game changing moments / winning moments.

          There’s many examples of these. Alex Reid sending himself up singing “Especially for You” with Dane Bowers (I think) and seemed to have his kit off and be prancing around in skimpy feminine attire at every opportunity, subverting his image as Jordan’s thuggish cage-fighting grunt.

          I still remember watching Anthony Hutton’s winning moment / episode from CBB 6.
          “Loveable” Cockney Maxwell was the early hot favourite. He and boob-heavy Saskia were a kind of power couple in the house for a while. Anthony, a lad of few words, used to hang around with them. Maxwell and Saskia slowly turned into a kind of nasty gang / clique, with Saskia and Makosi at war with each other. Anthony was starting to look bad by association.

          One evening episode, Anthony was called to the Diary Room. The entire episode was given over to a playful, flirty and fun dialogue between Anthony and the disembodied BB voice. It was the Anthony Show that evening. Also helpful was the verging-on sexual harassment that Craig subjected him Anthony to. Very uncomfortable to watch and yet Anthony always kept his patience with him.

          (You might take heart that Anthony had a broad Geordie twang. He was born in County Durham. As was Denise Welch, as it happens).

          That Anthony Show episode was un-foreseeable, un-forecastable.

          Although so far Abz is virtually frozen out from footage in the CBB programmes, he’s a likeable, popular lad who is probably building up a bigger following than is realised. He’s the nearest the series has to a (BB) Sam figure. Watch out if CBB suddenly decide to focus in on him, especially iagainst the backdrop of a house full of drunken, bitchy shits.

          3) Social media.

          Be careful when translating popularity on twitter to vote share projecting in TV contests. There are a lot of people who lost a lot of money on Leah McFall to win The Voice (Season 2), blindly (and deafly!) thinking they understood the currency conversion rate.

          None of them on this site, mind you! 🙂

          Have a look at the ages of the past winners of CBB.

          I do agree, though, that twitter is but one marker,of a body of evidence, with which to measure the popularity of Charlotte.

          The GS carry-over is difficult to dispute.

          4) Poll biases.

          Polls can be misleading and thinking about why and how they could be misleading can be a fruitful subject area.

          5) Vote Transfer.

          For instance: CBB (and Courtney herself) seem intent on sending Courtney to the exit. If she is out of the equation, whom will her voters choose to support?

          6) Vote splitting.

          Will Towie’s Mario eat into GS’s Charlotte’s vote share? The youth reality TV share will be split?

          Actually, I think slimy, hypocritical Mario can’t hold a candle to funny, good-hearted, clever Charlotte. It’s Mario’s vote that will suffer.

          (Abz in the top male market is looking v strong.)

          7) Underestimating the competition.

          Lauren and/or Abz could make a late surge.

          Lauren definitely has some producer love. She has crazy TV Gold moments all the time. Rylan loves her on BBBOTS (That was crystal obvious tonight.) She is being featured on the front pages of the nationals; is a publicity magnet for the show, at least on a par with Charlotte.

          Then there is the incremental power of recommendation. Nearly all the evicted house-mates are picking Lauren for the win. Whatever their true feelings about her, they are all saying all the right things about her character. They all mention how it would change her life for the better above everyone else left in that house.

          Abz: again, watch for him if he starts receiving favourable airtime / tasks.

          Not a comprehensive list, but factors and variables to consider.

          And there’s your counter you requested.

          • Travis Baines

            Wow, thanks for taking the time to help me out with that highly illuminating reply! Definitely made me question my certainty over Charlotte’s potential victory. I’ve started to worry that she might be a Frankie Cocozza type figure – well known, highly controverisal and appealling to younger viewers. Maybe she’s more likeable than Frankie?! She’s also a lot more vulger. I’d be interested to know if Frankie was the book maker’s favourite at this stage in his CBB run. I’m thinking about leaving it now as the odds are getting closer and closer to even money.

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            This series champ is revealed on the 13th (a Friday!!), so time for standings and rankings to change is nearly up.

            Charl’s still available at 13/8, which is just one eighth of a point lower than 7/4.

            Whatever you decide – good luck 🙂

  • Andy

    Thanks for posting the youtube link Guildo.
    I must have watched it 5 times and it still makes me laugh.
    Bruce’s face is a picture.
    She really is just blank inside, Classic.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Talked myself into a bet on Abz, EW at 20s.
    The twos for top male also spoke to me.

    Have him to win outright at 14s from ages ago; there’s not long left for him to spark, but you never know…

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Had and am having the same ‘overpriced outsider’ vibe about Abz that I had with Lauren.
      Took more of the 2s and then 7/4 for him and thought, sod it, I’ll do a straight win bet at 16s.

  • Andy

    Followed your lead guildo and had a flutter on abz for top male.
    7/4

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Wow!

    Missed tonight’s show, just got back in, and so took a look at the odds.

    Lauren is in to 9/4 with SJ; and Abs is in to 6/1 with Hills 🙂

    Holy cow, what happened on tonight’s show? 🙂

    Got stuck into the 20s and 16s on Abs and the 2s and 7/4. (Plus I’ve my 14/1 at the series start.)
    And in the wink of one highlight’s programme he’s hot to trot.

    Two factors led to my ‘same overpriced outsider vibe’.

    1) My lengthy response to Travis (above) revealed to me that I strongly fancied Abs as someone who could make a late surge.

    2) In continuing to try to ascertain the viewer demographics I considered a new method.
    How about keeping note of the type of adverts running through the commercial breaks, during the highlights show?
    Who will know the exact demographic breakdown of a show?
    The advertisers.

    During the ad breaks of CBB I noted:

    Richmond sausages.
    ee.
    Nivea black and white.
    Very.co.uk
    New! magazine.
    Aldi.
    Domino’s.
    Stay Matte Foundation.
    Snickers.
    Plus Net Broadband.
    Talk Talk Tv.
    Huggies pull-ups.
    The Daily Star.
    Asda.
    Nivea in-body shower moisturiser.
    Warbuton’s Half and Half loaf.
    Disney Cakes & Sweets.
    DFS.

    Aside from the obvious:-
    I further noticed that the majority of the adverts featured women as the central protagonists.
    And that the Richmond, Warbuton’s and Disney ads featured mothers preparing food for their family, for their children. In the case of the Richmond and Warbuton’s ads: for their teenage children.
    The ee advert was an exception. This featured Kevin Bacon talking to camera. Kevin Bacon is 55 years old, and so will appeal in particular to women of what age?
    The snicker’s advert was the one that features 80 year old Joan Collins in the guise of Alexis, who was an eighties icon for the strong, no-shit woman.

    This demographic – who will they vote for?

    Carol – representative – but far too bitchy, sour and drunk.
    Louis – dancing, camp gay male – but too bitchy and nasty.
    Lauren – who knows?
    Charlotte – that pissing the bed incident etc would have been beyond the pale.
    Mario – sleazebag, ingrate and hypocrite.
    Abs – quiet, nice inoffensive lad [read son or grandson] who waters the plants rather than indulge in the verbal shit storms.

    20/1 was a freaking stupendous price for Sam, erm sorry, Abz!, this late in the game.
    But whereas I never really liked Sam, I’ve always liked Abs.

  • Travis Baines

    Lauren sweeps into poll position. Time to [finally] have my flutter on Charlotte I think 🙂

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Am ecstatic that my two ‘late surge’ predictions are now 2/1 (a few firms) and 9/2 (BF) 🙂
      These were my two ‘value outsider’ predictions, with the 2/1 tipped up at 33/1 and the 9/2 tipped up at 20/1 🙂

      Of the two, I actually favour Abz (at 9/2) over Lauren (the 2/1 shot).

      I see there’s 5/2 available for your Charl. Your read is that the two shorteners in the market are but shooting stars, bringing ever greater value to your fancy? You could be right.

      I don’t think Abz’s plummeting price has stopped shortening yet.
      Personally, I think Abz is going to win and in a few days time he might be the new favourite.

      But we’ll see.

      • Travis Baines

        Yeah, I get the impression that people who will vote for Charlotte were always going to do so, regardless of what she did in the house.

        From what I’ve seen on the forums most people who like either Lauren or Abz tend to like both of them; I feel like they may be in a position where they split the votes while Charlotte keeps her devote base of supporters. Admittedly the likelihood is that I am coming to this conclusion just to self-affirm that I’ve made the right decision to back Char.

        Either way I’m very excited for the finale. I’ve got a lot more ‘into’ this then I had planned to 😛

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        Abz became the ‘new favourite’ even quicker than I forecast.
        Now as low as 15/8
        🙂 🙂 🙂

  • Andy

    Here’s to your early warning siren regarding Abz.
    I managed to get on at 14/1 and 12/1 before the price crashed last night.
    Abz is now my best result.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hopefully, Abz will repay for your fab early championing of Andrea for The Voice!

      Or even, as we know, hedging nearer the end-game is always easier when you have big prices for the then near-favourites).

      I think realising that the ‘quiet American’ (or ‘lifeless’ as you memorably put it!) Dustin was about to exit got me thinking that Abz would then be the undisputed quiet, cool person.

      And of the two remaining young males, Abz would be the nice and normal one you could imagine inviting round for tea, while Mario would remain the slimy,lounge lizard tool he always has been. CBB has reaffirmed and sealed Mario’s image, imo.

      I still want and would prefer a Lauren win, but certainly wouldn’t mind Abz doing the business.

      Fingers crossed.

      • stoney

        I haven’t seen much of this series at all but I’m off work this week so have caught a few episodes and All I’ve seen abz do is build a tower out of pillows!

  • Travis Baines

    I wish I followed the advice on this thread and took Abz as top male. The days of that giving off a good payout are long gone. Now as low as 1/2 🙁

  • Andy

    Who’s going to vote for Vicky ?????????

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Andy,

    Normally, I would agree.

    The ‘ex-Corrie vote’ must be the most over-rated voting bloc.

    But a number of small things in her favour might add up to just enough.

    1) She is just like her character from Corrie.

    2) That character is a middle-aged female in a contest where the other middle-aged female, Carol, is coming across as a mean, bitchy lush; in a contest watched (and presumably voted upon) by a large section of middle-aged females.

    3) Vicky and Charlotte have had a furious row in which young Charl calls older Vicky ‘thick’.

    4) Vicky expresses opinions of Charlotte which had gone unsaid, but a lot of people (non GS fans) will wholeheartedly agree with and believe long oversaid (But, as usual, who knows what will be broadcast.) Perhaps C5 are happy now that they’ve got Charl safely through to the final and got their money’s worth of the hundreds of thousands of pounds of appearance money they spent on securing her participation. They might, now, let her take her chances, drop the editing ring of protection.

    I too think the 7/4 for Vicky looks great, and it looks like that value price is available because Charlotte and Mario are too short.

    But I’m also wondering who will vote for Louie?

    I’ve lost on an earlier eviction with him but he’s been a huge nasty disappointment throughout, and his wonderful “drunken diva” performance from the other night might have actually confirmed that that is who he really is – in vote winning or losing terms that could go either way.

    He often has an unpleasant look on his face (a semi scowl) and he’s so nasty that even his speech impediment (his lisp). which could have drawn sympathy and been a real cute factor, instead tends to annoy. You have to listen harder to hear what the latest bile is he’s pouring out of his mouth!

    Worse, I would say, he repeatedly dismisses the whole CBB experience as a game and claims not to care if he is voted out. People are spending their time watching, and their money voting. His attitude may reflect reality, but it is disrespectful to the viewer and voter.

    Plus, one last thing: in the eviction I backed him in: he was in the bottom three (of 5).
    Who knows how close (or otherwise) the rankings were that night?

    I think 9/1 looks too big.

    Mind you, I did repeatedly say that about the 10/1 I took last time!! 🙁

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Earlier today, I had a piece of the 9/2 for Abz for the outright.

      If CBB show the argument between Vicky and Charlotte, unedited, it just might put the skids under Charlotte. It’s difficult to call, but I think it was an argument that won’t do her any favours.

      In a number of ways, I would see Abz as the indirect and main beneficiary.

  • Andy

    Excellent points as always Guildo. I did look at Louie price and thought it was generous but I thought the ”drunken diva” performance actually worked in Louie’s favour, the cheers on eviction night and his price shortening considerably seemed to confirm appreciation for his efforts. Louie, Carol and Vicky are my 3 worst results in the outright market so I wouldn’t mind too much if Louie went home which is highly likely considering its a double. maybe a double eviction market might be up soon.
    I managed to get 3 bets on Abz in the Top Male markets with 3 firms, not massive amounts but it would be a nice little earner if you called it correct and judging by the price today I have no doubt you won the call. Very early in xfactor but I would advise you keep a very close eye on Melanie, the price is awful and not worth touching at the moment but I will be looking for any market weakness as I really like this girl.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Thanks Andy,

    Like you (it feels), I try to think hard and fully about my betting and what I write. I always believe (maybe naively) it’s all their to be figured out!! You know what I mean?
    I hope Abz’s support keeps building.

    Still feel a bit guilty, though. Ages ago Natasha (as was: Tish) mentioned that she had been put off backing Abz at (I think) 25/1, after reading something I said. I did say: take no notice of me. Hope she listened to that bit.
    I’m praying she got on him at some stage since.
    Natasha/Tish also flagged up the 14/1 for Carol at the very outset of the show.

    I’d tread cautiously when evaluating the crowd reaction at eviction nights.I mean: who are those people?!! Yikes!! They seem more like a baying mob, sometimes. I half expect at any moment for one of them to scream that they’ve seen the monster (like in a Frankenstein movie) and for the whole throbbing mass to go haring off into the night!

    Unless you mean their reaction changed before and after the explanatory (it was a CBB secret task) VT?

    As much as I like Courtney, I would like for her, from a punting point of view, to be evicted.

    Yes, I found Melanie very likeable too. She seems to have really grown into her face, grown up nicely.

    Natural and open eyed.

  • Andy

    I was not aware of the Charlotte/Vicky bust up Guildo. Looks like Vicky may win a few votes because of this.
    I am overdue a loser and maybe this is the week, I am trying to lay the stake I placed on Vicky off on Betfair just in case.
    Will reevaluate later.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Wasn’t it lovely to get to meet the real Charlotte? 🙂

      On the plus side for her, her GS support and her regional support is reinforced.

      As for her popular, broad appeal…
      Oops! 🙂
      *evil chuckle*

      On this upcoming eviction, Andy:
      figuring things backwards in a process of elimination, I still sort of end up back at Louis.

      How do you see it?

      If not Louis, then who?
      Who are the two most likely to go?

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Just watched a couple of clips were Louis has maybe/probably saved his arse from eviction, yet a-bleeding again 🙁

    I hate him! Grrrrr!

  • Andy

    Courtney is the new betfair favourite but I wouldn’t think she would be near the bottom 2.
    Louie or Vicky just not sure in which order.

  • Andy

    I am sticking with Vicky to be next evicted Guildo with a saver on Louie just in case, I swear Vicky is looking more like Chucky with every episode.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Lol.

      Tonight’s eviction market confuses me a bit; an I’m unsure of where the value is.

      I wouldn’t be too surprised by any of them going.

      Think the support for Mario may be being overestimated and the 9/2 for him to go might be a touch generous. Think I might have a little bet on that, to accompany the 9s I took for Louis (but on whose exit I have subsequently lost some confidence).

      But if I want anyone to go tonight, it’s the lovely Courtney.
      Unfortunately she probably won’t and although the 5/4 being offered for her to be first evicted is f**king ridiculously unrepresentative, I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed.

      My main feeling for tonight: I think there will be a groundswell of anti-Charlotte feeling that will temporarily manifest as a anti-Charlotte protest vote centring on trying to save ‘Chucky’ (The anti-Charlotte).

      But we’ll see.

  • Andy

    I am not at all confident but I am going for a oldie for eviction.
    Its unlikely but I have now turned Carol green now to add to Louie and Vicky. You have to wait another 24 hours till you find out Guildo, The eviction is tomorrow night.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      *Embarrassed*

      Yes, I think I catch your thinking re Carol. It did occur to me that a sudden (and brief!) surge of support for Vicky might eat into votes for Carol, but mistakenly thinking the eviction night was tonight (*squirms*) I considered that Carol’s reaction to receiving her letter might swing things her way a little.

      But, yes, there’s more time for that image to have faded than I realised, Carol can be relied upon to soon be as pissed as a sour, squelchy fart again, and that 28/1 is a price I’m also happy to take a nibble at.

      Reviewing my bets for this market, I seem to be, in a slow way, accumulatively backing in a match bet: The field vs Vicky (!).

  • Andy

    No shame in getting the eviction date wrong Guildo.
    I’ve been singing Adele songs to a photo of my cat all day 🙂

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Charlotte-watch update:

    Not only carried on digging, but used the soil to build a nice platform on which Lauren stood to take the high moral ground.

    A punting wet-dream of an episode 🙂

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Downside of the night was that CBB did indeed show Louis absolutely serving that Danielle idiot.

    He could well have saved his arse there 🙁

    Am eyeing a nice top-up on the 28/1 with the 25/1 still on offer for Carol.

    She was her usual pathetic self.

    Carol is a trusty banker to indulge her drunken, bitchy, sour nastiness at every turn and both 28/1 and 25/1 are beginning to look enormous, imo. She doesn’t seem to have the capacity to redeem herself.

    Tomorrow’s show will no doubt feature more of her perma pained blurry-eyed face and her gob and forked-tongue spitting poison behind backs, as she vents her unhappy inner life. She does seem to be performing an endless and brilliant audition for a part in the opening scene of MacBeth. Beyond method acting, I would say!

    In saying all that (and just an extra thought/commentary) I think if tomorrow’s (!) eviction night was a ‘vote to evict’ and Charlotte was added to the mix, I’d make Charlotte the favourite.

  • Andy

    Whoever is jumping on the bandwagon and driving Courtney’s price down to 5/4 from 7/2 yesterday is likely to be very disappointed tomorrow, I do not see Courtney anywhere near the bottom 2.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I guess it must be people exclusively watching the highlights show and/or B(iased)B(ullshit)BOTS.

      Courtney is always given an unfavourable edit (I guess the only reason they broadcast a great bit for her tonight was that they couldn’t bring themselves to edit out what was also a fab moment for Lauren).

      Also, Emma consistently bigs up the younger contestants, namely Mario and Courtney (she must identify with that age group the strongest. The same phenomenon was even more blatant throughout BB with her irrational aren’t-they-loveable-and-hilarious championing of those odious pair of snides, the 19 year olds Jack and Joe).

      Plus I think the viewers (as is also evident with the subsequent actions of the hms) are sometimes swayed by the crowd reaction, by that instant noisy mass of feedback. Understandable (especially in the case of the hms), but an information source I’ve (with certain, very particular exceptions) come to ignore.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Random rant:

    The botox injections must have sunk through to Danielle Marr’s brain. It seems to have been wiped clean.

  • Paolobow

    Fascinating eviction market. I’m thinking the indicators are pointing to Louie.

  • Andy

    Even though the markets tell me otherwise. I am still not convinced that Courtney will be 1st out tonight. I am sticking with one of the golden oldies to go 1st but wouldn’t like to say which one.

  • Andy

    Ouch.
    I should have listened to the markets.
    🙁

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    A ditto ouch 🙁

    Three selections in a field of five yet I still can’t pick the winner. Poo.

    About the only thing I got right was that Vicky wasn’t going anywhere tonight.

    Would never have picked Courtney at the odds of reward to be evicted.

    On positive notes, in terms of the outright, I was happy to see the back of Courtney.

    Hopefully the “Lourtney” vote will transfer to Lauren and the “nice” vote will transfer to Abz.

    Abz for top male now is a two runner race.

    Plus, Vicky surviving in a double eviction tonight hints/suggests that there probably was an anti-Charlotte vote in operation.

  • Andy

    Not too much pain tonight, uncertainty kept stakes smaller than normal. I ignored the markets, I overestimated Courtney’s support and underestimated Vicky’s and Louie’s. lessons will be learnt. I am looking forward to Friday, Abz, Charlotte and Lauren all green so hopefully profits. Is Abz your best result Guildo ?

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Lauren is my best result, but I’m still simply praying she can manage to hold on for third, finish in the places. Abz is my second best result.

    Imo, Abz is my best shot at the win (plus of course that guarantees he’s top male), and if, in addition, Lauren can finish top three I will also have some lovely EW bets on her to pick up.

    If have some bets down on Charlotte, so if she wins, and Abz and Lauren fill the places, the win and EW winning bets combined will probably add up to me at the very, very least breaking even; BUT, again, an Abz victory with Lauren placing wins me a lot of money.

    I’m wondering if I should be having a bet on Charlotte to make things a little more spread out. I can afford to.
    I have little faith in a Lauren win and so feel the short final stretch of CBB is a shoot-out between Abz’s niceness and Charlotte’s enormous reality and social media fan base.

    Just as Vicky’s staying put tonight signalled to me that there was indeed an anti-Charlotte vote in evidence tonight, Mario staying tonight has also got me wondering if I am underestimating Charlotte’s voting base strength.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Yeah, just jumped on the best price for Charl as Lauren’s only going to drift while Charl contracts.
      Not too heavily as I have faith in Mr. Abz to bring home the bacon.

      But seemed a sensible, value-seeker’s thing to do.

  • Travis Baines

    Charlotte was as high as 4/1 today. Didn’t realise these odds moved so erratically.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Andrew, Daniel and Dug,
    If you’re looking in – I’ve sent you that email.
    Thanks,
    GHF.

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