The Voice UK 2013 – Post Mortem

Another big shout-out to our commenters for nailing their colours to Andrea Begley tonight and winning big. I doff my hat to stoney, Dan, Guildo Horn Forever and Andy. Boki and gwri78 both laid the heavy odds-on favourite Leah McFall and were rewarded.

The latter was given a full-on pimping, most notably with a huge production for her duet with will.i.am and the obvious support of Jessie J as well as her mentor. But like last year, the BBC didn’t get their intended winner.

It would be fascinating to see the voting percentages in the semis and final. Alas, the BBC is pretty myopic on this issue, though we live in hope given the decision earlier this week to release their Eurovision jury rankings.

Let us know your thoughts on the final below.

106 comments to The Voice UK 2013 – Post Mortem

  • EM

    I would have thought a Freedom of Information request would be the way to get voting figs out of the BBC

  • gwri78

    Check your each way bets, sporting no prob but 365 settled as loser, just getting them to resettle now

  • Steven

    Between this result and last year’s, I’m thinking more and more about what audience size means for the success of pimping in general. I think that casual viewers are much more likely to be swayed by the shows machinations, and of course those casual viewers are the first ones to stop watching and thus stop voting. One offsetting factor to this is that they’re probably quite a bit less likely to vote than more serious viewers, but on balance casual viewers seem to me to be quite helpful to show producers.

    It’s something I’ll keep in mind if X Factor’s viewing figures continue to slip, though for demographic reasons as well as producer experience I think their manipulation is a bit less susceptible to viewer desertion than the BBC’s are.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    I’ve noticed how I find it much easier nowadays not to be influenced by the market. I didn’t have a penny on Leah and wasn’t interested in backing her. If I think a price is (the right side of) wrong, I don’t hesitate in jumping on. I’m finding a strongly thought-through approach gives me the confidence to take on the majority opinions and wagers.

    On this site, though, the consensus opinion is often very different from that signalled by the market, anyway! Bravo, everyone!

    On reflection, the first two in the betting were absolutely ridiculous prices and Leah might qualify as one of the worst value long odds-on pokes in recent memory.

    If the voting figures are released I wouldn’t be surprised to see that Andrea won by a distance and that 2nd, 3rd and 4th finished in a heap.

    In fact, I think the Beeb should cut out this nonsense of the mentors deciding who goes through the rounds. The mentors
    aren’t fit for purpose. I mean: where ANY of the four finalists really in the top four best singers in the series? I honestly would say not.

    How ridiculous were the circumstances that led to this travesty of a decision:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=PEOCJEZgeHM

    Yes, Jessie – ‘Wow’ indeed. Now that’s a real superstar voice. No hype required. The voice speaks for itself.

    Even if she had picked her (will.i.am, he subsequently revealed, was waiting for the last auditionee), she doubtless would have chosen another of her acts over her in the battle rounds. One who can reach a higher note than her.

    On a lighter note, please, please, please watch this video. Jordan Lee Davies pulls some of the funniest facial expressions EVER 🙂 (22-23 seconds in is my personal highlight, and includes Jessie J’s reaction. Cracks me every time).

  • Andy

    I think I need to stop being influenced by the polls Guildo, as of yesterday Leah was top with 46% whilst Andrea was bottom with 13% and even though I knew Andrea was in with a chance, it still plants the seed of doubt, I honestly believe it was online polls that dictated this years prices and influenced many punters to place large sums of money down, on betfair last night a 68k bet was taken within seconds of being placed on Leah at odds of 1/4, whoever placed the lay will wake up with a huge smile this morning.
    I do not know if it was my half a dozen votes or the angel wings that won it for Andrea but she now goes into my Hall of Fame as my 3rd largest win ever, after Melanie Amaro and a certain Dancing Dog.

    • stoney

      the only poll that needs serious respect is the youguv poll, all the rest mean very little, especially on shows such as the voice which obviously attract a higher age audience than x factor.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I love the idea of a win bet ‘Hall of Fame’, Andy! Has my mind ticking back over my betting history. The ‘Hall of Shame’ contenders far outweigh the ‘Famers’! 🙁 Lol.

  • Andy

    The over the top pimping helped Andrea cause.
    not sure people want to be told who to vote for.

    • stoney

      some times it works sometimes it doesnt, i suppose it depends on whos doing it, it paid off for james arthur in the x factor, the fact of the matter is leah just isnt that good, and older viewers do not like her messing about with the songs, my old man can not stand her, he said from the get go he thinks she is a terrible singer (hes 68)

  • cfc2000

    Thanks all you tipsters. I wasn’t going to bet, as the prices seemed haywire to me. but after Andrea’s first performance I put money on her. She seemed likeable and more or less in tune, unlike the previous act. Nice little sum, but I wish I’d put much more on. After Eurovision, where the market was more or less right, I was worried that with those odds she was bound to win. A clue might be found in the female reaction in my household to Leah – they really wanted to “smack her cocky little face”. With the benefit of hindsight, an awful lot of people probably felt that way.

  • Dan

    This is a disaster for The Voice; for the second year running TPTB have failed to convince the voting public to pick their “chosen one”, the act with the most commercial potential. I feel that there is a huge disconnect between this and what the BBC One viewer is going to vote for. And that’s why I picked Andrea to win.

    My view is the the public are likely to vote for an underdog – an act that hasn’t been pimped to high heaven like Leah, who has a heartwarming back story – a triumph against adversity. Of course they still have to be able to sing, but let’s be honest, Andrea won in spite of the “duet” with The Script rather than because of it.

    Overall, tricky market for the punter – roll on X-Factor in two months!

  • Boki

    I think the market was also influenced by Leah’s undeniable chart success and enormous YT hits advantage. After terrible “I will always love you” performance she drifted just a little bit, probably people thought she’s going to win based on the previous hype (so did I to some extent but the value is value).
    It also seems the more desperate they are to convince the public who is the “deserved winner” the less chance they have. Time for a article about pimping in general Daniel?

    • stoney

      by the time the phonelines closed for the last time, leah was as short as 1/10, if this had been an itv show there would have been no doubt that the market would have reflected the outcome, however the bbc voting is a lot more cloak and dagger, and although its annoying not finding out the votes afterwards, it helps in the fact that clearly no voting leaks get out during the show, unlike itv shows

      • Boki

        I also mentioned ITV’s DOI this year, Matt was enormously pimped during the whole final show and before the lines were closed he shortened to about 1.3x but at the end lost to Beth. He got only 25% of the vote…

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I think the organism that is the The Voice is still low down on the learning curve on their journey to mastery of the dark arts of manipulating the public.

      Further, I wrote this yesterday evening:

      ‘I see that The Voice audience wouldn’t vote for Matt and wouldn’t be told what to do by will.i.am. I could have termed that differently. *Cough*’

      Will and, to an extent, Jessie have made utter fools of themselves. Obviously, they will silently be blaming their public for letting them and their Leah down. I imagine after this and following on from the failure of the much trumpeted Ruth Brown from last year, manipulation of both a greater order and subtlety will be employed next year.

      Leah needed singing lessons to help her learn to control her pitch (not to be whisked by private jet on a jolly to Cannes). But the word ‘their’ highlights the major flaw in her pimping.
      Leah was theirs, not ours.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    With top-up win bets on Andrea she became my clear best result last night. Am pleased for me and her that she won. Nice girl and pleasant singer who did enough.

    But I still think that the singer and performer of the night was Matt. Explicable why he didn’t win and, to an extent, why he came last, But on that point: for him to finish behind both Mike and Leah was ridiculous.

  • Curtis

    I Will Always Love You was surely a terrible song choice for Leah. Even if she was able to do a good job on it (which she didn’t really), it’s one of those songs that I think people have heard too many renditions and covers of over the years, on talent shows and also elsewhere. I don’t think hearing another one which probably wouldn’t make most people’s “Top 5 renditions of I Will Always Love You” really helped mark her as a winner.

  • gwri78

    Betting on the Voice has been great because the market seems to overlook a key aspect of the show – the involvement of the coaches and their reputation as part of the duet.

    No matter who is on his team Tom Jones will always have a lot of voters -he might even have come second this year, despite Mike unfortunately not doing well on the night. Jessie J has no fans watching and will always be favourite to come last, even though Matt put in a great performance.

    Will.i.am will never get a better chance to win and he still couldn’t get over the line so his future singers can also be written off. Only nice guy Danny and legend Sir Tom can win, so lets hope they keep the same coaches next year.

    On a broader point, I think we’re in a golden age of betting on TV shows and we need to make the most of it. Even though I’ve only been taking it seriously this year, partly thanks to this site, I can see that some people have been doing this for years, so what I mean is that there are now constantly betting opportunities all year round with some generous odds on offer for clued-up punters.

    The bookmakers won’t let it last – do we expect them to price the Eurovision favourite in the same way next year? -and I can see a situation in a few years time when almost every viewer of these shows is also betting on them through their phone, with bookie adverts showing live in-play odds between songs, much like C4 racing now.

    Obviously this would cause problems with voting, but there’s a lot of advertising money at stake as well as lots of new, young punters that could be accessed so I expect they’ll find some way around that, but that’ll make value harder to find.

    Protecting accounts & not getting stakes retricted is important, and I think Stoney’s use of doubles with other sports is a good idea, as is Guildo’s range of big-priced outright punts. Having said that, I can’t see too many bookies unhappy with bets on Andrea this time as the odds on fav got turned over.

    So thanks to all who share ideas on here, and time to start researching Big Brother!

    • stoney

      My double bet fell flat on its arse today, not to worry though, im just thanking my lucky stars i topped up my single bet on andrea saturday night or id be a bit more pissed off today

    • cfc2000

      GWRI78
      You are absolutely right, and you echo what my brother-in-law says. As a retired bookmaker who supplements his pension with winnings from whichever event has value possibilities, he doesn’t share his insights on the internet! Certainly the glory days of Eurovision betting are over. Although don’t you think it might become like certain sports where you know they are bent, and the game is spotting where and how you can benefit from that?

  • AlisonR

    TPTB did give some mixed subliminal messages (I think through incompetence rather than deliberate – *LOL*!), for example, Angel Andrea who they didn’t want to win (note what happens on XF when such heavenly connotations are used: Angel Jahmene, Angel Marcus anyone?) vs the Bang Bang treatment for Leah, yet they did want her to win (didn’t TPTB learn anything from XFs Habibisisation?).

    Of course, it helped that Andrea could sing in tune almost all of the time, whereas none of the other three could…
    Leah did nail “Lovin you” (this time around -I did think at the time of her first rendition a few shows back that Frankella’s was better) but put too many duff ones in “I will always Love you” to be in contention. After that and “Bang Bang” (what a piece of monotonous sh*te that is) I actually thought she was at risk of being eliminated as the fourth place act.

  • cfc2000

    Alison R
    Excellent observations. Exactly why I bet on Andrea. The “heavenly connotations” idea is insightful too.

  • Henry VIII

    Andy no 68K bet was taken. Some clown put it up and then withdrew it a second later.

    Total of all bets matched in play was 60K.

  • Andy

    I am now truly gutted Henry.
    It was that lay that scared me out of adding to my Andrea stakes.
    I will be beating myself up for days now.

  • Tish

    There is no thread for this years Big Brother. Does Anyone have any thoughts or views on what sort of winner we will get? Marmite Gina (Love her or hate her) or Mr nice guy Sam for example?

  • Andy

    I am involved Tish.
    My plan A was Charlie but I now got Gina as my biggest Green.
    Gina got lots of love out there and should go close if she carries on doing what she’s doing.
    She played the race card early and I thought she may have been evicted 1st but since then she really is entertaining, as long as she doesn’t get into arguments and come across as arrogant I think she’s likely to win.
    I wouldn’t be taking 5/4 with 5 full weeks left.
    I don’t think Sam’s price should be so short, He’s spent the 1st 5 weeks flying too far under the radar to be a serious contender but this could change, Just think back to Rachel Rice.

    • Tish

      Not placed any bets yet then for the winner? I really disliked Gina at the beginning but she has changed a lot and I actually think she’s alright. I am worried that she could nail this as there is a lot of love for her, at the moment! I’ve already placed on Sam, silly I know but i’m thinking back to Andrea winning the voice, which, had she not been blind, would she have won? Hand on my heart I don’t think she would have. Sam could pick up a lot of sympathy votes. What we have seen of him in the live feeds he’s is actually quite funny and witty. He is in the safe now so will get a lot more coverage and hopefully his charachter and personality will shine through in leaps and bounds.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        As much as I’m as keen as mustard for Gina to win, Sam’s (just about) my idea of the winner, too. At the odds as they stand now, I think Sam is the value alternative to Gina, anyway.

        In regards to Sam, I am slightly put in mind of Luke A’s victory. I placed my bet on him for the outright within the opening week of that series. I became steadily more and more convinced that I’d done my money. But not so.

        Gina does have popular appeal and almost cult status and is the deserved winner of this series (fingers crossed), but Sam has aspects that could yet bring him the win.

        Damn it! I know better, but can’t keep away from this site!

        • Tish

          I think Gina is starting to play up to the cameras a bit now thats she isn’t involved in conflict. Take the Ferrero Rocher meltdown for example!! Sam is actually really funny and comes out with some corkers of one liners but for some reason they don’t show any of this in the highlights show and instead show him to be quiet and boring!. Maybe BB are saving him and will ‘pimp’ him and give him more air time showing all his funny bits towards the end of the show, thus, making the public support him even more and crown him winner? Fridays eviction. Dan or Sophie to go? I think Dan will. Eventhough people want Sophie to go, I don’t think she’s done anything out of sorts to actually make people pick up the phone and vote her out whereas as Detective Dan on the other hand, has been bitchy, very very whiney and bossy/interfering. Surely it’s about time for a man to get the boot?

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            Hi Tish,

            I think TPTB directing C5 BB have stirred the s**t in unprecedented ways, producing one of the most entertaining BB series ever, featuring two of the most watchable contestants ever in Gina and Dex.

            It could be that they are continuing to ignore Sam, and deny him air-time, as they realise if they gave him a fair shake in the editing he might gather winning momentum.

            Perhaps these C5 PTB want an iconic no-holds-barred winner like Gina; rather than the safer alternative.

            Still, Gina is an all-or-nothing girl, who’s all-in at every opportunity, and is becoming used to making things go her way. A fall could be in the offing. She makes me bite my fingernails, I know that! (Whenever I watch her, I mentally say: Be yourself, Gina – but not too much!!).

            Agree totally with your character sketch of Dan. I’ve never phone- or text-voted on any reality show ever. Never spent a penny on them. But even I feel tempted to pick up the phone to help get rid of Dan.

  • Andy

    At my peril Tish I have now ruled out Hazel, Callum and Sophie,
    I think the Jack and Joe novelty has now worn off and Dan seems a little bit too obnoxious to win over the masses.

    This show is Gina’s to lose from here on in.
    5 weeks is a long time and if for some reason Gina’s personality changes then Dexter, Sam and Charlie are the main challengers IMO

    I have money on Gina and Charlie.

    • Tish

      Yes I think Sophie is now a gonner, she’s too brashy and this will be seen a lot now she’s in the safehouse. Charlie i’m not so sure of. I think being really close to Hazel won’t do her any favours. The twins I agree and I think they will be chosen to go into the safhouse which would make them favourites to go on Friday. Love for Dexter is a bit up and down at the moment and I can’t see him being on par with Gina again. I want to jump on the bandwagon for Gina but odds on her are stupid so not worth the value, maybe if they lengthen (which I doubt they will) I might have a go but i’m quite heavily involved with Sam now so fingers crossed

  • Andy

    You could be in a good position Tish,
    Sam hasn’t really been involved as yet but his price has not drifted any higher than 7/1.
    he’s a very likable lad, doesn’t bitch, drop a few funny one liners and no one can doubt his personality,
    My biggest fear is Gina’s personality.
    I get the feeling that some of Gina’s antics are fake and that she is playing up to the camera.
    If she is faking it then can she keep it up for another 5 weeks ?
    she now suspects that she favourite due to a tennis ball and must have heard the cheers last night.
    I hope that doesn’t go to her head.
    Like I said this show is Gina’s to lose.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    This reply (eleven or so posts above – at this point) from cfc 2000 to GRW 178 caught my eye:

    ‘…As a retired bookmaker who supplements his pension with winnings from whichever event has value possibilities, he doesn’t share his insights on the internet!’

    This is it!

    Now,re BB betting.

    I ‘ve had six EW bets on BB this series: Gina at 33/1 and 8/1; Dexter at 20/1; Jack and Joe at 5/1; Sam at 5/1; and Charlie at 12/1.

    Now should I have shared my bets and the ideas behind them by publicising them on this site or any other of a similar ilk? Now, I daresay I probably try to win sums that many of this site’s regulars would regard as typical staking amounts! Add to this that I’ve built up a bit of a winning run lately with Eurovision, BGT, The Voice etc (including going back to a very lengthy piece on another popular site that tipped up Beth Tweddle to the rooftops to win Dancing on Ice) so perhaps my ideas might attract a bit of attention and carry a bit of influence, with big hitters in the reality markets?

    I was tempted to highlight Gina a month ago, out of thanks to the bettors on this forum who shared their insights as to why Andrea was a likely winner of The Voice. But I decided not to. I have a love-hate relationship with this site.

    I recall reading a comment on another popular site a few months ago, to the effect that it is getting harder and harder to obtain value in reality markets nowadays and that there is no time to hang about once you have identified a value bet as nowadays there is a stampede to “get on”.

    And what’s influencing that change of affairs?!

    ‘Tourism destroys tourism’ – you discover an idyllic, unspoilt beauty spot. You tell your friends about this place, they tell their friends, and so on… Soon the place is over-run and all the charm of the place erodes away as it becomes over-commercialised, thereby losing what was its original USP.

    ‘Publicising value betting areas and value bets destroys value betting areas and value bets’ – it’s inevitable. Then there’s the thought of how many of the traders and oddsmakers have these sites bookmarked.

    So, I have a love-hate relationship with this site. I love the crack, the insights, the range and differences of opinion(s) on this site. And the quality of the advice from both the site owners and the fora regulars is superb and profitable.

    Imo, it’s the best site of it’s kind (and thus the worst site!).

    But, yes: the spread and popularity of these sites is inevitably only going to increase.

    *Conflicted feelings*

  • cfc2000

    You sum it up well Guildo. My brother-in-law the retired bookie worked race-courses up and down the country for decades. He can calculate incredibly complicated odds in his head, because of many years of trying to make money out of punters. The smaller meetings are generally bent in this country, and a bookmaker has to work within this framework. That’s why he learned to keep his betting tactics to himself. Of course, if you regulars wanted to influence the market, this site would be an excellent choice, as it has a good reputation. IE instead of advising people to lay Leah McFall, recommend her and get even better odds when the market responds accordingly. I think that might be illegal though – didn’t Piers Morgan get in trouble for something like that when he was editor of the Daily Mirror?

  • Andy

    Sam got no air time at all tonight, 35 min into the show before he spoke his 1st words when he had a little chat with Dan regarding careers yet his price has been shortening all day, I am guessing that they will have to show more of him once more housemates are voted out, but I am really tempted to lay Sam at these prices.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Andy,

      I talked myself into steaming into Sam’s price the other day, though the airtime issue’s a valid concern.

      I see his price has shrunk during that time but guess this is more because the others’ gittiness (bar Gina) has become even more apparent – rather than because of anything vote-worthy that Sam has done, and been shown doing.

      Am looking at the fraction above evens for Gina and am wondering if that is a good bet. She’s a very popular girl.

      I’m wondering if it should have been Gina’s price shrinking rather than Sam’s.

      I don’t need to back her again but feel like I want to.

  • Andy

    Hi Guildo, My BB betting track record over the last 2 years is abysmal so this year stakes are smaller than usual, I placed a little on Charlie in the 1st week at 20/1 and I placed money on Gina at 5/2, I think I am going to sit back now and let it ride, Sam does seem to be a danger simply because he seems to be a likable lad and Tish pointed out he might get the sympathy vote, however I haven’t known anyone win reality shows by simply turning up, He spends a lot of his time in bed and bring very little entertainment to the house, He’s going to stay till the final but I fail to see him gathering enough support to get him over the finish line unless he wakes up.

    I have taken short prices on Dan getting the boot tonight.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      My worst BB series result came earlier this year with Celebrity BB. Not abysmal – but pretty bloody awful.

      My first bet went immediately on Rylan, as soon as his HM status was confirmed. If only I’d stopped there!

      I continued with an ongoing (never-ending!) series of EW bets on Frankie, Razor, Clare and Tricia.

      Was flabbergasted at the 2nd and 3rd finishers – Speidi, followed by Toadfish. Argghhh!

      Realised that there may have been a sea-change in voting preferences and came up with a rationale for this pattern-change.

      To a degree, I’ve ignored my analysis by, last week, putting myself into a position where I’m nearly (well, sort of) as interested in Sam as I am in Gina.

      Rylan beating Speidi suggests to me a 1-2 finish of Gina followed by Dexter.

      Am worried I overestimated Sam’s finishing position with old, outdated BB-think.

      I see Sam is currently as short as 9/4 for the outright – which is a bonkers, tiny price.

      I’m left hoping that someone, other than Gina, bullies him (a bit) and soon.

      The things punting makes one wish for!

  • Andy

    Very well done taking 33/1 on Gina, great hindsight.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Ha! I’m still annoyed I hesitated a day. The price change over that one day was enormous.
      I should have backed her at twelves as well, but was still annoyed at myself back at that initial hesitation. Bit the bullet, eventually, and took eights.
      Same pattern
      And yet again: I meant to take the 11/10, hesitated, and I find now she is being offered at odds on.

  • Andy.

    I think a few of us got sucked into placing bets on Tricia, Won’t fall for that again.
    I missed the value on Rylan because I was abroad, ended up taking 11/10.
    Had a very nice return off Frankie’s eviction.
    Hazel the obvious choice for the boot Friday but Jack and Joe beginning to annoy
    Might avoid getting involved.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Having an eviction bet, taking on the odds-on fave, Hazel, with a wager on Callum.
    Fingers crossed for tomorrow evening.

    Going way, way, way back here: but there’s something about Hazel this week that reminds me of the week Orlaith survived against Kemal. As I recall, Orlaith was about 1/5 on to be evicted with Corals as late as that Thursday, but it was Kemal who had rapidly lost momentum in that series and it was he who got the boot.

    Anyway, we’ll see…

  • Andy

    Ditto.
    I couldn’t resist the 3/1 this morning.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Andy,

    I see our Callum is into 5/4 at places now.
    I estimated Hazel as an even money chance, and she’s still not quite hit that mark yet so I won’t be backing her, in any kind of cover action.

    Did though have a small bet on the twins when they hit 25s. I figured that that was a stratospheric price for that pair. Dexter was on the money in his nomination analysis of the power dynamic in operation in J & J’s relationship.

    I’d love it if the twins went tonight. Can’t stand them.

  • Andy

    I am all in on Callum, Having taken 15/8 AND 7/4 today, Best of luck.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Back of the net!

    Get out there, Callum!

    Yesssss!

    Nothing sweeter than taking a stand against the odds-on pokes and coming up trumps.

    Took the 3/1 and 11/4 on him yesterday.

    We’re not bad at this reality lark are we, Andy? 😀

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Just placed a small, wildly speculative win bet on the outright winner market. Am amazed at whom I have just backed but those flamboyant odds offer a touch of value, I do believe.

    Even so I think I can see who winner of the series is now. The mists have cleared and the final stretch is in clear sight.

    I’ve already backed the heck out of him, in particular ‘steaming’ into his price a week ago, so I’ll leave my bets on him at that, but I reckon the outright winner will be…

    Sam.

    …currently available top price of 9/4.

    I think the (current) odds-on favourite Gina will be another odds-on losing favourite.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      And although we’re days away from the next round of nominations, and although he must have survived 7 or 8 eviction evenings by now, I can imagine the third in betting, Dex, biting the dust at the next eviction.

  • Andy

    That was a good nights work Guildo, Well worth a punt after Callum went all crunchy nut on Wednesday.
    I now have Dexter and Sam green but Gina still my best result.
    Callum talking about Sam in the eviction interview was touching. I might put a few more pounds on Sam just in case.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    As it stands Gina wins, but I can see (and think likely) things taking a wrong turn for her, which leaves Sam as yet another default winner.

    Gina’s my best result, with Sam about 3/4 as good as that result.

    My ‘wild speculative’ bet last night was on Hazel for the outright!!!!!! Thought there was a (slight!) touch of value in the 66/1 on offer.

    Love your description of Callum as having gone ‘all crunchy nut’! Lol.

  • Andy

    Guildo, The turnaround you envisaged may have started this week, When Sam confronted Dexter over the weekend Gina was jumping up and down with joy.
    When Hazel laid into Charlie last night she sat there with a smirk on her face, She quite obviously gets a kick out of other peoples misery and general public are picking up on this.
    Comments online making me think her support is waning with the words manipulative and devious being commonly used.
    I am going to start turning my book around to favour Sam and Dexter
    Hazel going to struggle to wiggle her way out of eviction this week and I have already taken short odds.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Yeah, on the live feed, Gina, J&J, Sophie etc can come across as horrors, each one of them. The twins in particular are revealed as a pair of vicious, mean-spirited, ego-enthralled s***s.

      Dex is smarmy, a skilled s**t, and a game player but so brazenly a game player that his smarmy charm is repellent and amusing and even sometimes cute. Irl, with no holds barred, I think the situ with Callum would have concluded differently.

      Charlie tries not to, but takes after her mum, the despicable crone, Jackie – thus she is conflicted, with inevitable and intermittent leakages where the clumsy, gobby (Jackie-learnt) comments fly out. With no self-awareness of her process, she then is left genuinely bewildered as she finds herself under siege from all angles. She is one of the very few people I’ve felt sorry for, over this series.

      Hazel has yet again dug a bloody deep hole for herself. The 66s on her was probably generous! 🙁

      Sam. I’m not sure I even like Sam, but he’s been less of a s**t than anyone else. He doesn’t have the opportunities to be one – perhaps those impediments have been his saving grace.

      About the only nice bits have been the funny, little chats Gina and Sam have sometimes shared. But BB aren’t interested in non-conflict narratives, so they don’t merit inclusion in the highlights package they fashion for evening time broadcast.

      The biggest s***s of all are the BB PTB.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Andy, the last comment posted on this site that hasn’t been from either you or me was Tish’s on 23rd July! We’re on an unbroken roll of 20 comments, now!

    Do we get a prize?! )-D

  • Andy

    Not everyone keen on BB Guildo, Very difficult to call due to the amount of twists and turns over the 2 1/2 months, I am a self confessed addicted reality TV gambler so tune in every night then watch bots the next day, although I do prefer talent shows I think I would get the shakes if I didn’t get involved. 🙂
    Glad I didn’t delay 2/5 and 1/3 for Hazel should pay dividends Friday.

  • Andy

    I have just watched last nights BB again Guildo and housemates really did dump on Charlie almost bordering bulling, I am thinking back to CBB 2007 when Shilpa Shetty got 63% of the votes for racism/bullying, if this continues for a few more days there is a possibility Charlie’s support could take off.
    Everyone feels sorry for a victim.
    Topping up just in case.

  • stoney

    Not long now til x factor kicks off, cant wait to get the comments section alive and kicking again on this site, i won bootcamp tickets from talk talk for tomorrow at wembley but aint going, as i didnt want to spoil the auditions on tele.

    • Dan

      Yeah, I think that it starts on 24th this year (thought it was next week but Harry Potter is on instead). Should be an interesting one given the tenth anniversary and that three of the judges are outgoing. Looking forward to the coverage here.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Andy,
    Nibbled at the 7/2 for Dex earlier in the week and at the 5/2 earlier tonight. Bit concerned at flashes of arrogance from Sam and what may be in today’s Star about him.
    Wish he’d keep his mouth shut.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Haven’t enjoyed reading the Star this morning. V interesting timing.

      BB markets make truly extraordinary reading. I’ve never seen the likes:
      Sam has been trimmed into 4/5 to win BB outright while simultaneously he has been smashed into down to 2/1 to be evicted tonight.
      If he’s 2/1 (vying for favouritism) to lose in a subset contest vote against his three least popular rival contestants, then how can he be odds-on (as low as 4/5) to win in a contest vote involving his two most popular rival contestants?
      And entrance in the latter contest depends on qualifying from the former contest!
      WTF!

      Think that Sophie might be the one to go tonight, though conceivably, it seems, any one of the four could go.
      Have took the 9/4 on her.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        My thinking on the eviction tonight.

        I don’t believe in the drives fuelling this unprecedented, monster gamble on Sam to be evicted tonight. I figure that it is being calculated that Sam’s visible disdain/arrogance/entitlement and the DS story (combined with the DOND news), and potential block voting (in a last-chance vote to evict) from the GInxster legions will see him fall tonight. People are looking to strike while the iron is hot. Imo he is sustaining wounds that will slowly eat at his popularity. I don’t sense he has been “unmasked” etc and don’t believe he is leaving tonight.

        The twins are as yucky as ever but another contestant always seems to stick their head above the parapet more so than them every week. Or that’s what the editing seems to demonstrate.

        Charlie. As painful as she is, I think there is a begrudging and small level of sympathy for her.

        Sophie. She’s been introduced into the mix and I think that gives her a strange kind of negative momentum. Plus I can’t stand the expressions she twists. She should be a pretty girl, but her manner makes her unattractive.

        I suppose it’s all down to today’s developments and tonight’s edit.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Have realised that I should probably be backing Gina again: that 9/2 looks on the large side.

          Have also realised, after analysing my own comments, that, if the markets are to be believed, and Sam (now 7/4 favourite to go tonight) does indeed go, there is a corking bet to be had.

  • Andy

    Hi Guildo.
    BB proving yet again to be an absolute minefield, 3 days till the final and I’m still not sure which way to turn in the outright market.
    I dumped on J&J to be evicted on Monday with PP and Lad at 5/2 and 9/4, when the twist took place on Wednesday, (New Book) Lad to there credit returned stakes due to Dexter being taken out and Sophie replacing him, PP say bet stands because J&J still involved in the eviction. Unfair I feel.
    I actually think Sophie will get the boot tonight, It didn’t go unnoticed that she wrote Dexter’s name onto her board at the last second during the live face to face nominations.
    Many comments online calling her a cheat and saying she should have been automatically placed up for eviction.
    She’s well ahead in the online polls as well, I am happy taking anything over 2/1.
    I don’t see Sam or Charlie going.

  • Andy

    X Factor start date Saturday, August 31.
    Its also on Sunday 1st Sept.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Yes!
    Back of the net!
    Wish I’d put more on now, but I arrived at Sophie by process of elimination so I didn’t have as much on her as I did Callum.
    But a 9/4 eviction winner is a good winner.
    And got the favourite beaten again!
    Hope and trust you got on too.
    I’m 2 out of 2 for evictions now.
    🙂

  • Andy

    Made a profit Guildo. would have been better if PP had voided the bet I placed on J&J like they should have done when the runners and riders were swapped around.
    Dexter is now my biggest green followed by Sam, I really don’t see any of the others winning and if the Twins win I am getting on the 1st flight to Cairo.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      That’s shoddy from PP. We accept non-runners, and even accept supplemented runners – but one runner being switched for another? That’s a new field and a new race.

      The unbridled producer love for the twins is beginning to worry me. I’m reminded of Syco’s desire for a group to win XF. Can a Little Mix parallel be made here? Do TPTB at C5BB have their collective heart set on a having a unique winner, a pair of identical twins? There were more votes to evict Sam tonight than the twins.

      If they make a silk purse out of this pair of cow’s arses then I’ll be left with an empty wallet. 🙁

  • Andy

    Neck on the block time.

    Dexter to win. 9/4 bet365.

    Gina 2nd.

    Sam 3rd.

    Jack and Joe 4th.

    Charlie 5th.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Btw, I didn’t realise the final is on Monday! Is this right?

      Ok, neck on block time.

      Sam 1st.

      Gina 2nd.

      Dexter 3rd.

      JJ 4th.

      Charlie 5th.

      • Tish

        Yes it’s monday! I agree with you there, although, i possibly think Dexter 2nd and Gina 3rd. Sam has a lot of support and hope in my heart of heart he takes the crown

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Hi Tish,

    Yeah, they were the rankings I hesitated about. The others felt more straightforward.

    I think Charlie will attract virtually no female support and so that edged me to ranking Gina higher in 2nd, rather than 3rd.

    For a brief moment I considered ranking J&J in third! I have to say that I still feel that is a possibility. I base that on nothing more than a hunch as I know absolutely no-one who likes them, and I can’t for the life of me conceive of who would want to vote for them to win.

    But as I have EW bets galore on Gina, Dexter and Sam, I am very keen for those three to fill the podium.

    From a punting point of view a Sam win is fine and dandy by me, but I actually don’t positively like any of the people in the final.

    Imo, given another week (or so) and I think Sam might have seriously damaged his chances.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      But anyway, I haven’t caught any of the live feed recently so everything can still change. 24 hours is a long time in BB politics.

      I think Andy has mentioned the word ‘minefield’ in relation to BB betting, and my word, X Factor, for example, requires less blooming time investment than Big Brother.

      I’ll be glad when Monday’s come and gone, so I never have to watch any of those bloody people any more!!

    • Tish

      I agree with your point about Charlie and I haven’t seen much support for the Twins either so it’s just the top 3 to worry about. Gina and Dexter share a lot of fans so I think that due a vote split between the 2, Sams support will shine through and see him crowed the winner. Not only that, he’d have the welsh vote, the sympathy vote, the ‘he is fit i love him’ vote from the girls and also votes from people that don’t like the fakeness of Gina and Dexter. I have bet quite a lot on Sam (E/W) so I think it’s somewhat difficult for me to make an unbiased opinion on who will win. I can’t work Dexter out, I can’t love him and I can’t hate him. I quite like Gina and her fun loving side but detest the snobby, fake and potty mouth bitchy side, They equally have plenty of money (apparently) so don’t really need it. There is a very positive article in Star Magazine about Sam which I think was out a few days ago so could really help his chances too 🙂

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    I think I can see where you’re coming from, Andy, with Dexter for the win.

    It’s whether the public view Dexter more as a victim of bullying; or as a snake who should suffer his just deserts. Imo, both of these perspectives ring true. I love and hate Dexter. He is divisive.

    But he’s guaranteed to continue to be the go-to for having a pop at, so maybe you’re right, Andy.

    And any more front page “yob” portraits of Sam between now and Monday evening will finish Sam and boost Dex’s standing.

    Confirmation bias, and all that.

  • Andy

    This is a comment from the mail on line added last night and it kind of echo’s my thoughts,

    Dexter to win! Big Brother is not a charity, it’s an entertainment show and the housemate who has provided the most entertainment should be rewarded. Not only that, but he’s been nothing but polite and respectful towards housemates who have been completely rude and nasty to him. Sorry Sam, you can’t sleep for 9 weeks, make a few crude comments and expect 100 grand, whether you’re deaf or not.

    It was one of the top rated comments.
    I am thinking back to Aaron Morgan’s 2011 win.
    he wasn’t the most likable housemate yet provided the most entertainment.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Andy,

      Hmmm.

      BB 2011 passed me by – didn’t see any of that. But v interesting point.

      The ‘nothing but polite and respectful’ part amuses me…but if this is what a majority perceive then that’s all that matters.

      To me: he’s a wind-up merchant. I know this, because I can sometimes be one myself. And he does it in ways I recognise. For instance, I remember that scene wherein he visited “psychologist” Callum (!). I loved that episode because I hate people like Callum; and identify (to a degree) with Dex,

      I can see now I’m probably wrong to have Gina placed 2nd. She has bullied and also, possibly, doesn’t need the money. People don’t like spending money to give £100,000 to a rich person. The Daily Star regularly refers to her as ‘rich’ or ‘spoilt’ so whether she is or isn’t I suppose the doubt is set in stone. I agree: you’re right – she’s third.

      I had my first major doubts about Sam when watching him confront Dexter. I wasn’t sure if he had sub-consciously modelled Callum’s attitude towards Dexter. But It was the disdain and confidence, the practised, bodily confidence, with which he tackled Dexter that bothered me. It looked worse than it was because Sam is tall and was standing up and Dex was sitting on his bed, but even so.

      To me, Dex is too manipulative to be crowned the winner. Yet he does have that incredible vulnerability, which at times can make him very, very appealing (possibly and especially to female voters). There is something cute about Dexter.

      Sam was an archetypal winner up to a few days ago, and I think had it in the bag, but his copybook is a bit blotted and his image, generally, a bit shaken. No one has denied the Daily Star front page, I notice.

      Sam hasn’t been on a journey; Dexter has, but remains exactly the same person! I think the BB setting has allowed him to nudge people more than he could irl.

      You’re hot at picking the reality winners, Andy, so that provokes me to examine my opinions.

      I think it’s a close call. And tonight’s show could be critical.

  • Andy

    Hi Guildo.

    The prediction that went down this morning went down with very little confidence behind it.
    but with 2 nights till the final I thought it was time to make a call.

    Charlie & J&J haven’t a prayer of winning over the masses and their prices reflect this.

    I said on the 20th July that I thought the show was Gina’s to lose and I now believe she has blown her chances after turning on Hazel then Charlie, the arrogance I feared was visibly on display and her popularity has been dwindling and IMO there isn’t enough wind in her sails to get her past the post, I am so glad I layed her when she was odds on with Betfair.

    Sam for me hasn’t quite done enough. I don’t believe that real BB fanatics will vote for him, They want and demand entertainment and Sam even though he seems to be a good kid has fallen short at this hurdle. He may get the younger Vote.

    The reason I am edging my bets on Dexter,

    I have slowly warmed to him after writing him off very early.
    He has been consistently in the limelight for good and bad reasons, never once losing his temper even though he has come in for almighty stick from fellow housemates.
    He has been calm, composed and dignified throughout and he has added most to the proceedings.
    I could listen to him all night when he gets going.
    He has played a big game but I honestly think he has played it very well and I am happily taking anything around 11/4 that’s floating around on Betfair.

    Editing over the next 2 night could sway this show either way.

    As I type Dexter, Sam and Gina have 30% each of the votes on tellymix poll.
    Dexter streets ahead on thisisbigbrother poll.
    Gina in control of Digital spy poll.

    Its a minefield.

  • Andy

    Ignore previous comment.
    Pendulum swings back over to Sam’s side after last nights embarrassment.
    I love you Charlie Travers.
    OH CRAP.

  • Tish

    Tonights show should also go in Sams favour. Check out the ‘why i should win’ speeches. Out of the Dexters, Ginas and Sams, Sams is by the far the most natural, lighthearted and ‘awwwwww’ makes me want to vote for him even more! Also, check out the grilling questions they got. Sam has Vanessa Feltz ask him a question, Dexter got proper grilled by John McCririck and I mean, proper grilled which clearly touched a nerve with Dexter. Aad Ginas, Oh, my, gosh, makes her look even more like a spoilt, stuck up brat!! Can’t remember who asked her a question but totally didn’t do her any favours

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Think the 3/1 for Dexter offers a bit of value, so had a nibble.

    Of Gina, Dexter and Sam, I’m not sure who the best result is for me!

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Done my calculations and Sam is the best result for me.

      Have had another bet on him to be top male at 4/7 – which may be my first odds-on bet of the series.

      Also will be taking the 8/13 for J&J to finish 4th.

      Best of luck Andy, Tish and everyone.

      You too, Daniel!
      (Where are you?! Waiting for X Factor?)

      • Daniel

        Thanks Guildo, just away on holiday at the moment. It makes BB impractical for me but congrats to you, Tish and Andy on another profitable TV contest.

        X Factor is most definitely in our sights. It’s not long before the series – and our coverage – gets into gear.

  • Andy

    Best of luck to anyone involved.
    Not confident but I stayed with Dexter.
    Small profits for me with a Charlie, Gina or Sam win.
    Big profit with a Dexter win.
    Painful loss if J&J pull it off.
    Fingers crossed.

  • Tish

    Best of luck to you too! Big profit if Sam wins, he’s the only one I placed a big bet on, I just couldn’t bring myself to bet on anyone else. I did this 5 weeks ago and got odds of 5/1 so I will be very very very very very happy if it pays off! Oh, and bring on X Factor!

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Hi Tish, when I ‘steamed into’ his price last month I was taking 9/2 and 4/1 EW. Props to you for not wavering and not hedging.

      • Tish

        Ive done that before and regretted it. You always seem to regret the things you don’t do rather than the things you do do. I had another top up outright bet for him a few weeks after and got 5/2.

  • Andy

    Well done Guildo on your EW trio.
    I’ve done a little in play betting and now get around about the same if Sam or Dexter wins.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I do have a losing win bet on Gina at about 9/2 and I have win bets on Sam at 9/4 and 4/7 (top male), and on Dex at 3/1. But yes, I do have some nice EW bets to pick up. Thanks.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Am chuffed with my 8/13 for J&J to be fourth. I spotted a touch of value there.

    As the result nears I perversely find myself sort of preferring a win for Dexter.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Well done Tish, for not hedging 🙂
    Well done Andy, for last minute hedging 🙂

    I feel a sense of anti-climax, about the result.

    I’m strangely v pleased that my two odds-on bets won tonight.

    Well done, Tish, for calling the winner ages ago.

  • Andy

    looking forward to seeing the stats.
    eviction vote.

  • Andy

    Sam was only 2% behind Sophie in Fridays eviction vote.

  • Andy

    Just done the sums and am happy to say that was my most successful BB so far.
    A cracking little run on the evictions followed by some great guidance from Tish and Guido after I went a little astray on the outright market.
    Must say a big thank you to you both for putting me straight.
    I’m still not sure how Sam won but it was nice to see him get out of bed to collect his 100k.
    Hats off to you both.

  • Tish

    The vote to evict this year helped a lot. Sam stayed under the radar for a while as he was overshadowed by all the big personalities. Once they started leaving, he started coming into himself a bit more and grew more confident. He won because he wasn’t fake like Dexter and Gina. He was himself 100% and didn’t bitch behind anyones back. He stuck up for himself, didn’t get involved in group rants. He was funny, kind of cute, welsh and hard of hearing, which, to many, he would be seen as a role model. That is why I placed big on him 5 weeks ago. There were time when I though shit, I better put a smaller bet on someone else as a back plan but couldn’t bring myself to do it. I just didn’t get the same feeling for anyone else so topped up a few weeks later on Sam again 🙂

  • Andy

    The crowd reaction last night gave the game away.
    I turned things around quite early into the show.
    I had 2 text messages from friends on the day Sam went into the house that said he would win, he was the most obvious winner from day 1, I guess I just wouldn’t listen.
    He who doesn’t listen, cannot hear.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Having a look at the rumoured runners for the CBB market, with Louie Spence pirouetting out at me, handstands and shoulders above the rest. If I was formulating the prices for that market (based on the current, unconfirmed list of entrants), I’d have Louie chalked up at about 7/4.

    He’s currently the 2nd favourite at 5/1.

    And what an uninspiring, miserable bunch of dysfunctional misfits the rest of the field are.

    If and as soon as he appears on screen in the house, I think his price will plummet, no matter the calibre of any surprise hms.

    I hope he does enter.

    All will soon be revealed.

  • Tish

    Louie Spence is this years Marmite. He certainly is an aquired taste and one that I do not like. IMO I don’t think he would have a chance of winning. I’m going to take an early punt at Carol McGiffen, Denise Welsh’s (last years winner) fellow loose lady. And possibly Mr Motivator. What a guy he is. Surely everyone remembers him from back in the day. Legend! The others (apart from Sophie Anderton) I have never heard of.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Thanks for the perspective, Tish. I love Louie and naively imagine everyone else does.

      Considered Carol and she does bring a fan base. Also considered Mr M, but wondered if I should be backing two dancers. But come to think of it, why not?

    • Hello chaps, have created a new thread for continuation of CBB discussions. Good luck all!

  • Dan

    Nice early start for The Voice in 2014; it’s back on 11th January! Hopefully this year it can be given a chance to shine as there will be no BGT clash.

  • Chris Bellis

    Looking forward to this one, having won big time on the last one, thanks to carefully sifting remarks here and mixing them with my own gut feelings. The Voice is less manipulative than BGT, X Factor or Eurovision, so I like it better. Good luck all you punters for the New Year.

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