BGT 2013: Semi-finals post mortem

Attraction sailed through tonight’s final semi with a performance that had the judges on their feet, tissues being reached for across the nation’s living rooms, and punters rushing to back them down to 4/9 favourites for the victory next Saturday night.

Which means we have to address again the question Boki asked earlier in the week, imagining this eventuality: are they unstoppable?

Nobody’s unstoppable in BGT; the question is how strong is producers’ appetite to do so. As Kevin puts it in the comments:

Attraction may be an act that familiarity undermines somewhat. Simon did mention the “not British” angle also… there is a long week there and Attraction could be nobbled yet. The gushing praise was worrying alright but with a big audience perhaps it was for tonight’s show as opposed to the Final itself. The performances on the night will be critical.

We shouldn’t forget that Attraction will perform either their audition routine again, in which case it’ll be the first time they lack the surprise factor; or a new routine, in which case they run the risk of failing to reach the heights we’ve got used to. In either eventuality, an early slot and a subtle dialling down of judge gushing could conceivably be enough to put the brakes on.

But it would clearly be foolish to discount the possibility that we’re heading for an Attraction pimp slot. We’ve always struggled to see a convincing counterargument to the idea that having a non-British act win the show would undermine the longevity of the format. But tonight, with Simon’s speech about being honoured to welcome Attraction, a possible counterargument presented itself:

Might the thinking be that the longevity of the format could be served by bringing in more and more foreign acts, which would widen the pool of talent, if only the public could be persuaded to accept it? And is Attraction the act with which producers are planning to run the not-insignificant risk of crossing that particular Rubicon? Could Britain’s Got Talent evolve into Britain’s Got The Ability To Attract Talent From All Over The World?

Or will we, next week, see a judgely banging of the patriotic drum on behalf of Jack Carroll or Richard & Adam?

We described the singing Welsh sandwich-makers as variety show catnip after their semi, which featured a couple of references to patriotic pride from the judges. But as the week has progressed, we’ve been getting a sneaking sense of deja vu all over again – a shift of momentum from a popera duo to an act representing a genre box we suspect the show would quite like to tick in its list of winners.

Popera acts will always be a relatively easy sell on this show; less so dancing dogs or comedians. Just as Pudsey last year provided a perfect storm, will producers decide they’ll never have a better opportunity to get a comedian over the line? Stoney, who deserves credit for a series of good calls in the comments this week, notes that “my flag is firmly pinned to jacky boy”.

Elsewhere, The Luminites got an extraordinary amount of pimping when winning their Thursday semi, but are arguably the kind of act that – like last year’s Loveable Rogues – don’t need to be pushed for the win in order to launch their career. And it’s not immediately obvious why Friday’s winner, Francine Lewis, should fare significantly better than the fifth place secured by fellow impressionist Paul Burling in 2010.

It’s not unprecedented for a semi-final loser to turn the tables in the final – Diversity did so on Susan Boyle; might any of this year’s runners-up conceivably sneak a podium at a fancy price? We’re also yet to have the wildcard confirmed.

We’ll be back next weekend with a preview of the grand final, before which Dug will be summarising the runners and riders as The Voice starts its own live shows on Friday. In the meantime, do please use the space below to let us know how you’re thinking as the dust settles on the semi-finals.

125 comments to BGT 2013: Semi-finals post mortem

  • Haha, those suggesting Jack can beat Attraction are deluded. They are unstoppable now and the market is correct.

  • Tish

    Without Attraction in the mix I personally feel top 3 should be Jack, Richard & Adam and The Luminites. Each showcases British talent. Jack – A great fearless comedian, Richard & Adam – a classic popera act loved by most and The Luminites – Fresh and current talent in the British mucis industry right now. I do think Attraction are unstoppable, however, if Jack is given the pimp slot then i’m hoping he will be in for the win with Attraction along with R&A second and 3rd which, would push The Luminites out at 4th. I just hope the British public votes for their own. I also hope the theory based on pervious 1st semi final wins comes into effect this year also

    • Kevin

      A week is a long time, especially when there will be more mainstream media attention as the final approaches. It would take little to undermine Attraction I believe especially in the face of such an admirable opponent in Jack. You get a lot of clap trap regarding performers overcoming hardship but Jack is pretty inspiring to be doing what he is doing at 14 years old I think. Head says should have laid off on Attraction pre-show tonight but too late now it looks. Come on Jack

  • I’ve been informed that Winner Without Attraction markets are opening tomorrow. Down to 1.37 on Betfair.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Another shout out to stoney – stone-cold, deadly tipping all week. You’re clear top of the naps table!

    Syco waste no opportunities in undermining an act they wish to bin, so I was surprised they showered Attraction with advantages and love tonight. One opportunity ignored; just the one left.
    Unless, as Kevin alludes, there is a media sh**storm in the pipeline for them. I’m thinking along the lines of that Sunday Mirror front page piece on Chris Maloney.
    Otherwise it looks like Britain’s Got Talent can be renamed Britain Hosts Talent.

    Attraction’s performance tonight felt like a reworking of their audition debut. Similar story, same themes. A bit samey. But the compelling magic of their medium and professionalism still shone through and there were just enough new touches in the presentation to keep it surprising.
    Spellbound got away with presenting virtually the same spectacle all three times, so if Attraction do repeat their audition show for the final, I think the public will be understanding. Even more so now they’ve been given an insight into the long hours, hard work and dedication that they pour into their art. In this sense, no-one would have that expectation of them; the way it is expected of a singer to have dozens of songs ready to perform at the drop of a hat.

    It’s easiest for Syco to stop singing acts from progressing. What they did to Band of Voices in their semi they can’t do to Attraction. Attraction fill your screen, own your screen and exercise total creative control over the presentation. They own the foreground, background, lighting, music, props – the lot. They are the experts in the building at what they do.

    Still: wouldn’t want to get involved at the 4/11 to 2/7 at which they’re currently trading. They’re horrible prices. A week of crappy media exposes about them, a glut of stories centred on projections of the levels of Eastern European arrivals to this country, an Aliki no.2 spot in the running order of the final, underwhelmed judgery etc: and they could be vulnerable to a Jack.attack.

    • Very good points here about Attraction owning all of their performance, creative control, background, lighting, music, props etc.

      Vital yet obvious information that myself and probably others have probably overlooked.

      The only way the producers can de-ramp them is by giving them a bad slot and average comments. Yet they cant give them too bad of a slot, early, because they are one of, if not the biggest, draw of the competition. So wouldnt be ideal for ratings.

      Has to be between Jack and Attraction for me. Only way Jack stands a chance if Attraction are on say 4th from last and he is on last or second to last.

  • The lastest polls show Attraction walking it: 3-times the support of their closest rival.

  • Tish

    Are odds for Jack likely to shorten again during the week or drift like R&A’s?

  • Shoulders

    Hi, I bet with Sporting Bet on Jordon to reach the final, the bet was placed at 7.15 and they gave odds of 2.75, it was only a small bet this time £10, but when i checked back after the results show they had cancelled and void it. I called today and they stated it was a book that the traders had mistakenly left open, they told me on the phone that the cancellation of the bet would stand, it seems a bit harsh as it is only a small bet and relatively low odds, I know it’s not a large amount of money but does anyone have any experience/ advice??
    Thanks

    • Rob

      Happy to chip in & help the sofabet guys answer this one, Shoulders. Sadly, sportingbet can use the smallprint of its ts&cs to justify voiding your bet, courtesy of these clauses:

      5.13 All prices are subject to variation and become fixed at the time a bet is placed. Sportingbet cannot be held responsible for any typing, human or palpable error which leads to any errors or omissions, including the announcing, publishing or marking of prices or results, other than those intended, or bets being accepted that contravene Sportingbet rules. In cases where a bet has been accepted at an incorrect price Sportingbet reserves the right to void the bet.
      5.14 Sportingbet cannot be held responsible for any typing, human, software or palpable error in relation to any product or information provided either on the Sportingbet website or on the relevant third party website to which a client is directed from the Sportingbet website in order to place his relevant bet. Sportingbet reserves the right to void any bet where such bet has been placed in circumstances where it considers, at its sole discretion, that such an error has occurred.

      The thing is, in-running odds on tv markets are subject to rapid change, and you legitimately pounced on a value price as you saw it before they had cut the odds. Is this palpable error? They are claiming yes, they left the market open by mistake, but it is incredibly miserly of them to void bets rather than pay-out as ‘a gesture of goodwill’. You might want to try & take it up with IBAS: http://www.ibas-uk.com/
      A few years back, I placed a bet on Debussy to win the Arlington Million with bet365. It was returned at US tote odds. They made a ‘palpable error’ by paying out at much bigger odds than the correct return. What did they do? They stood by their mistake & allowed the incorrect pay-out to stand – the error on my bet alone costing them over £800 more.

    • Luke

      Thanks for posting this. I placed the same bet on SportingBet, for slightly more money, and they also voided (I didn’t realise until now). I am going to IBAS them and expect to win – it wasn’t a palpable error but a poor trading decision to not change the price based on the running order.

      • Shoulders

        Hi Luke, did you have any joy with Sportingbet, I sent them an email this morning saying I wanted to start their dispute resolution service but so far no response

    • stoney

      i use sporting bet quite often actually, i dodged a bullet on this one, i would have been absolutely smashing my flat up if they did that too me, i put a bit more than a tenner on though

    • Boki

      If you push them they will limit or close your account I guess.

  • Danny

    “Attraction sailed through tonight’s final semi…”

    should probably read something like:

    TPTB served up a show that looks like Attraction sailed through tonight’s final semi …

    I’m in on Attraction for the win, but best not to lose sight of the evidence that we know they won their semi, but we don’t know the margin.

  • Andy

    The power’s that be.

  • Tish

    Cheers Andy. I’ve been looking on various websites and at the polls they have in place for who the public want to win and Attraction are winning by a huge margin, with Francine 2nd and Jack 3rd. Do we really think TPTB want a non British winner? Do we really think they can turn it and make one of our own win? Are we heading for disaster from a betting point of view (not backing Attraction for the win) or we will see another Subo/Diversity moment (fingers crossed lol) ? Will the first semi winner bear significance on their placing in the final?

    • Yes Tish, the judges showed last night that they were happy for Attraction to win. I think they would win even if they were shoved on second or third in the final. Last year, the main poll on Digital Spy before the final was extremely accurate, showing Ashleigh and Pudsey on 38% and Jonathan and Charlotte on 25%. It reminded me of one of those YouGov polls that comes out just before the final of The X Factor.

      This year, Attraction are on 48%, Francine on 14% and Jack on 12%. As either Amanda or Alesha said last night, that is “Game over”. However, I’m certain Richard and Adam’s support on Digital Spy is being slightly underestimated, as they’re sure to pick up a lot of nan, mum and Welsh votes.

      • Kevin

        Looks hugely likely that Attraction will win on the back of those figures. If final were tonight Jack backers would be doomed. Will anything change in a week? Just have to wait and watch.

  • Tish

    The Luminites could be ones to watch, although, it’s rumoured they are already signed to Sony and undoubtedly they will make Simon mega bucks without placing in the top 3 so my thoughts on them are that they don’t need to place to be successful as they definatly will be anyway? Lets hope that we are heavily reminded that Jack won a pride of BRITAIN award in his VT in the finals which, should guilt trip the British public to vote for their own rather than a non British act. I hope R & A place in the top 3, they are a class act and in pervious years acts of that genre have always placed and I can’t see a comedian and an imperssionist in the top 3.

  • stoney

    Morning fellow sofabet posters, First and foremost its an absolute pleasure to see people thanking me for advice that has helped them win money, its almost as enjoyable as winning money myself. Been in a bad way all day after lastnights celebrations on what has been an amazing semi final week for me, basically i have to work a 60 hour week for 6 weeks to earn what ive made this week and thats a very nice feeling. I must admit im suprised by TPTB wanting to risk the show by the foreign winners, its a shocking decision, and although they could still pull it off, im not as sure there going to anymore. If they fail to do so, for me a top 3 finish for jack will bring back what ive laid out for him in bets e/w and outright. So ill settle for that. Then id be at the level profitwise that i was at last year. But it would be a reverse way of doing it, last year it was mediocre semi finals and a perfect final, and this year it may be the other way round.
    Having said that im still holding faith that the british public when push comes to shove DO NOT want a foreign winnner how ever good they are. Especially with the feeling towards immigration and other events happening politics wise. Im a celebrity get me out of here had a big odds on favourite (ashley) to win the show and she was beaten by janine butcher who quite frankly didnt deserve to win. So those saying attraction have won this are jumping the gun.

    Looking forward to the final and may the best act win
    (apologies for any punctuation/spelling mistakes i think im still drunk)

    • Tish

      Stoney, do you think we will have a Subo moment with Jack and Attraction in the top 2 with Jack being crowned winner? As history goes, the favourite has never won, with R&A in 3rd place? Thanks again for your help in the week.

      • stoney

        Its a pleasure. Not sure sure what you mean about the favourite never winning, Spellbound were favourites from the day there audition was show til the day they won, that was the easiest call ever, my only regret was that i didnt stake everything i owned on it haha

        • Tish

          I meant j&C last year coming 2nd, Subo coming 2nd and Ronan Parkes coming 2nd. O mighty one lol Who would you see being placed in top 3?

  • stoney

    O might one lol. erm i think we have to assume the 5 semi final winners will make up the top 5. For me francine was the weakest of the 5 winners so shell be 5th luminites in 4th richard and andrew 3rd attraction 2nd jack 1st, I think its fair to say Jack and attraction will be the top 2 and having heard simon already bringing up the fact that not from britain last night we just have to hope hes getting ready to pull the trigger on them

    • Tish

      My thoughts exactly on everything you just said. Just needed someone else to think the same to give me hope for next week. Going to use my winnings from last night to lump on jack but may wait a few days to see if his odds drift a little bit more. Thanks Stoney 🙂 p.s – hair of the dog usually works for me if you feel hanging lol

  • stoney

    they may ease out a bit as the week goes on, also i remember mentioning that people should wait before backing richard and andrew after winning there first semi final at 5/1, there are available at 14’s now OUCH
    No hair of the dog for me i couldnt stomach it lol

  • stoney

    i am watching to rerun of lastnights show as i was a bit drunk lastnight, and i bloody hope arthur larger doesnt make the final as she will take a chunk of jacks votes, that act is bloody impressive, unfotunately for him there is already an impressionist and a comedian in the final, cant see anyone other than joeseph getting the spot baring that in mind, cant be bothered to bet on it though

  • Oh dear oh dear people thinking Jack will be 2nd or even 1st! Syco will be pushing the main musical acts they are signing, Richard and Adam, Luminites for the top 3. They will receive running order slots in the final 3. I don’t see Jack receiving a slot so late, and remember Francine beats Jack in the polls.

    You’re in the minority saying a foreign act can’t win the show. This is an act that has moved the entire nation to tears in both of their highly-pimped performances and got the whole country talking. Attraction are unstoppable.

    • stoney

      lets hope so or your going to be picking egg off your face for the next few years

    • Tish

      Loveble Rogues didn’t place in the top 3 and nor did The Mend. I LOVEThe Luminites and think they are better than them both but I don’t think TPTB will help them place top 3 purely because they don’t need a podium win to launch them or to make Simon money (going on shows history)

      • The Mend haven’t made anyone any money.

        The Loveable Rogues came 4th in the final last year despite an early slot. Producers didn’t want them in the top 3 otherwise they wouldn’t have put Only Boys Aloud on so late.

        Not saying it definitely will happen, but a podium slot would be better to launch Luminites/Richard & Adam careers than a placing out of the top 3.

        • Tish

          Luminites are already signed to Sony and have been in talks with Will.I.Am so in my eyes, they’ve already made it and won’t need a top 3 win to launch themselves so a gallant 4th will do. I’d still buy their album even if they came last

    • stoney

      Is attaction as much as a dead cert to win the show as alice was to go through the other night? I think dead cert is a silly thing to say.

  • stoney

    For the record i havent said they cant win, they have been favourites since day 1, im pointing out it wont be good for the show if they win, and it wont, the show will lose credibility instantly, its not a unique act, there have been better shadow acts on americas got talent and various other talent shows in recent years. Talented they are, ill give them that, but jesus christ its also bloody depressing, they make me want to slit my wirsts more than pick up the phone and spend 50p voting for them

  • stoney

    I had to laugh when reading the digital spy forums when someone suggested they may do a rape in there next performance

    • Tish

      If they did then surely it would put people off voting? Which could only be a good thing. I also read in the paper that some bloke put £10,000 on jack to win. This bloke is obviously loaded so just think how many time he’d pick up the phone and vote for Jack

      • stoney

        Lol the poster was joking, the point he was making is how depressing the performances are. I dont care if jack carroll doesnt win, but if a foreign act wins the show ill be really annoyed

        • Tish

          Oh right lol, yeh i’ll be really annoyed too, mainly because their not British. The Britains got talent logo is of the Union Jack flag for god sake!

          • stoney

            i posted something on facebook regarding attraction winning BGT and heres what one of the people said to me

            .they came to britain because they recognize its the biggest talent competition around..they deserve to win

            my reply was

            lots of people class the premier league as the best league in the world, shall we let barcelona pop over and win a title next season while were in the mood of giving away our prizes to foreigners?

          • Tish

            LOL. If a british act were to go on Hungarys got talent, would they welcome us with open arms and let us take their crown? Taking our jobs and homes etc obviously isn’t enough.

          • stoney

            LOL i have no problem with people wanting to make a better life for themself or wanted to work hard over here for money, just to make that clear. However a foreigner winning BRITAINS GOT TALENT puts a bad feeling in my stomach,

          • eurovicious

            Judging by some of these comments, the reason Europeans are “taking our jobs” might be because they have a better grasp of English than the native populace. Christ on a moped.

            “LOL”

          • Guildo Horn Forever

            I don’t let political ideologies interfere with my betting POV (I’ve backed Attraction multiple times and championed them a couple of weeks ago as a betting proposition), although I do try to factor in others’ perceptions.
            But I do accept that a foreign act winning a show entitled ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ is a contradiction in terms.
            It could be likened to the Women’s Institute announcing that it was allowing men to join or that its new president is a man. It’s exclusively female membership might find that disagreeable or be resistant to that.
            It can be argued, and often is, that patriotism is a form of (unwanted) tribalism; it could also be argued that an organisation, the WI, whose constitution bars men from joining is sexist and that a women- only membership policy is a form of tribalism.
            In this contrasting example, the multicultural ideology seems more acceptable than the multi-genderist ideology.
            Personally, I understand the WI’s wish to maintain with it’s women-only membership constitution and I understand that it will feel a bit irrational if a foreign act does win Britain’s Got Talent.
            And this thought does nothing to diminish my admiration for Attraction’s art and their work ethic.

  • Shoulders

    Thanks to all who helped with my Sportingbet question much appreciated

  • Henry VIII

    If Tish and Stoney had backed them they’d be thinking “isn’t it flattering that a Hungarian troupe thinks so highly of BGT. We’re lucky to have them perform for us and raise the bar”.

    The philosophy will always be subconsciously rationalised to fit the finance 🙂 😉

  • stoney

    Lol not true mate, i have already said im happy for any other act to win other than attraction

  • Lozzzeeeee

    I’m going to wade in on the foreign act to win BGT debate…if attraction perform their audition piece i believe they will be unstoppable, no matter what the slot. Their audition piece felt very “British” to me, British imagery, fighting a war in a desert, highly relevant to our current society. The audition story touched every patriotic bone in my body and uses key themes reported in the British newspapers/tvs everyday – our boys dying fighting in foreign lands. That emotional connection to the story gives the performance by a foreign act a highly patriotic feel and that will see them over the line in my opinion.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Excellent point.
      Yes, the scene in which the shadow soldier ate a bullet and fell back to his death in slow motion was furnished with a camel and a palm tree.
      The “home” scene featured The Houses of Parliament, Big Ben and other London landmarks.
      The “foreign field” was a desert scene.
      There was that shot of the audience member lost deep in misty-eyed reminiscence. The burly chap with his hand to his mouth. It was difficult not to presume that he was a current or ex member of the British armed services who had seen active duty in countries where camels and palm trees are commonplace.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Anyway, a useful learning outcome from the dialogues in this comments section could be this: not only are there people who will not vote for Attraction because they are a foreign act, but there are people who will vote for Attraction because they are a foreign act.
    This information is unquantifiable,of course.

    I’m reminded again of the old Big Brother voting system when you were asked to ‘vote to evict’.
    If this system was in operation in BGT then Attraction would be one of the favourites in the eviction market?
    The poser for those who wanted Attraction to stay: from all of the other contestants who do I select to vote to evict?

    So, those who want Attraction to lose have the strategic dilemma of whom to vote for. Do you vote for Jack? Do you vote for R&A? Do you vote for Francine? Do you vote for the Luminites? An unusual kind of vote splitting would be in operation: with the anti-Attraction vote not knowing for whom to vote.
    This dilemma would not be shared with those with a more, say, multiculturalist point of view. They would vote for Attraction to win.

    I suppose this highlights one of the differences between BGT and the X Factor. On the day of the final of an X Factor those people who didn’t want a particular act, act A, to win, simply need to vote for acts B and C to win. In probability there would likely be just the one act to need to vote for.

    Another factor to consider is that word I’ve read in many comments discussing Eurovision: diaspora.
    What volume of votes will Attraction accumulate from people of Central European heritage in this country? Possibly people of Eastern European heritage may also feel a tug to vote for Attraction?

    • Danny

      “..Attraction to lose have the strategic dilemma of whom to vote for.”

      Good question. With the odds on attraction so short right now, there must be a lot of value for acts who have the ability to step up their performance from the audition/semis.
      Diversity were worthy winners (imo) as they really upped their performance for the final and included new (and importantly crowd pleasing) elements.

      Who has the potential to improve for Saturday? For me it’s Jack, Luminites, Francine and Steve Hewlett (if wildcard). I see all the other acts as only likely to bring a small improvement to their previous performances and in general, the singing acts have a tough job to raise their own bar as they had to give their best to get into the final in the first place. The one act I’m most puzzling about right now is Jordan as, with the aid of a good slot and nice comments, he’s the only finalist who got through with a performance noticably worse than his audition. If he comes with a song that he can better sing, there must be a lot of trading value on his betfair odds right now (219/1 as I write).

  • Danny

    Oh, while I think about it, I reckon that the correct translation of Simon saying he’s OK with a foreign act winning the show is:

    “Don’t bother planning an anti-Simon protest vote on this one, because you’d just be giving me what I want.”

    Whether it is what he wants, or it’s actually just trying to avoid the pesky public derailing his de-ramping plans, I am undecided about.

  • AlisonR

    These are the numbers watching the semifinals (source: Tellymix). Make of these what you will:
    .
    Semi 1 (R&A) 10.3 million viewers ave
    Semi 2 (Jack) 9 million
    Semi 3 (Luminites) 8.8 million
    Semi 4 (Francine) 8.9 million
    Semi 5 (Attraction) 8.13 million

    So Attraction had the least viewed semi (though could still have had more votes if they beat Jordan by a greater margin than some of the others beat their closest rival). R&A have the most viewed semi but is that enough to carry them to victory? I don’t think so.

    R&A have been shoved down memory plughole already imho. By semi 3 BGMT, it was all Luminites and Jack and their only references were as “sandwich makers” not anything to do with their performance (this was repeated in s5BGMT). By semi 5’s BGMT it was all Attraction with some Jack/Luminites namechecking.

    I still think Attraction will win. My predicted finishing order is:
    1. Attraction
    2. Jack
    3. Luminites
    4. Francine
    5. R&A
    6. Alix
    7. Preskool
    8. Gabz
    9. Jordan
    10. Asanda
    11. Wildcard

  • AlisonR

    Obviously #6 should read Arisx.

  • Tish

    Apologies to anyone that felt offended by my previous comment. I think Attraction are brilliant and I think if the show was not called Britains Got Talent but The World Has Talent then i’d be behind them all the way. I think next year, TPTB should re consider the name of the show as it is no longer restriced to the British public. Anyway, really looking forward to Saturdays show, I just wish we didn’t have to wait almost a week to see it!

  • Dizzy

    Why is everyone neglecting to mention the power of semi 1? Never out of the first two in the final the pimp slot on Bank Holiday Monday is always used to prime the chosen ones, or in this case the ones most likely to challenge Attraction.

    The viewing figures above reinforce my view that Richard & Adam will be the biggest challengers, with Jack’s vote perhaps diluted somewhat by Francine. A comedian won’t get the pimp on Saturday, nor will Attraction (probably on 7th or 8th after Jack). Pure guesswork but based on previous finals R&A could well be on last.

    I still fully expect Atrraction to win, but it may well be R&A that gives them a run for their money by attracting the traditional Brit vote (bolstered by grey appeal and regional support). They’re my bet for the forecast.

    • Kevin

      Good reasoning there sir

    • I completely agree but I’m half expecting Luminites in the pimp slot. An Attraction pimp slot can’t be ruled out either.

    • Tish

      I haven’t neglected this thought at all and going by previous years semi final 1 winners placing in the top 3, it should happen again this year. But, this year has been really different. the length of time from the first semi to the final is a really long time and I think perhaps unfortunalty, R&A are a distant memory? I hope I am wrong because they are a brilliant british act loved by many. It all comes down to who is given the almighty pimp slot and maybe, just maybe they will give it to R&A because they would need it? I don’t know, it’s really hard to second guess!

  • Boki

    Don’t laugh at me but I see Gabz as a top3 value bet. Anyone else thoughts about a top3 upset? I also don’t believe R&A will finish so high…

  • stoney

    I am finding it hard to resist having one last wedge on Richard and Adam for top 3. Evens money at bet 365, the welsh manged to get only boys allowed into the top 3 last year, while vote splitting with jonathon and charlotte, so im pretty certain they could do the same for the sarnie makers, the welsh are a loyal patriotic mob, they wont let there boys down

    • Tish

      Could possible vote splits make way for R & A to go up against Attraction for 1st and 2nd?

      If you think about it, we have Francine V Jack, Asanda V Arixsandra, Gabz V Luminites. I know that leaves Pre-Skool and Jordan but I dont see them as a threat.

  • stoney

    Its possible, but that theory didnt stop diversity beating subo who was a shorter favourite than attraction. I can see R & A getting a huge slice of the granny vote, they are competing with no one else for that, unless joeseph hall gets the wildcard, if he doesnt get the wildcard, will know why!!!

  • Tish

    I think Steve Hewlett should get the wildcard, he really worried me in the last semis as thought he’d get Jordans place. If TPTB want Jack to place top 3 then they wouldn’t put him through right? I laughed more at Steves act than I did Jacks.

    • stoney

      if tptb wanted him through they wouldnt have stick him on so early in the show, there keeping him well out of the way of the final

  • Andy

    The welsh lads have done nothing at all wrong.
    2 flawless performances with rave comments from the judges, I have resigned myself to a Attraction win now and will have to take a loss on the outright market, yet even money for a top 3 finish has to be a way of recouping a few pounds.

  • gwri78

    Interesting to see how bookies have changed their each way terms throughout the week, started with sportingbet offering 1/4 first 3, then 1/5, now only a couple of bookies each way and its 1/3 first 2, have we seen the end of favourable EW bets on tv shows? I hope not

  • Andy.

    Off topic but anybody think Andrea Begley in with a chance on The Voice.
    definitely my favourite out of the final 12.
    Price 12/1 available.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      I’m still in mourning over some of the judge’s decisions during the battle rounds.
      I’m still convinced the would-have-been winner of the series was sent home in the first round.
      An expensive and painful lesson for me. Ow!

      Will have a gander at the runners and might have a small-stakes dabble.

      From what I recall,Andrea would be the ultimate symbolic winner.

      On the subject of politics and reality tv shows, the sublime Abi Sampa is this year’s best example of a singer who was never going to win this year.

      I’ve re-watched her audition maybe 12 to 15 times and I still get goosebumbs from it. But even when she was 80/1 I still couldn’t bring myself to put even so little as a small EW bet on my favourite act.

    • Andy.

      The early prices were tempting during the episodes and battle rounds but with the judges only able to take 3 acts each through to the live shows there was always going to be many acts fly under the radar, I placed £90 on Andrea and £10 on Ragsy at 20/1 and 50/1 respectively.
      Many of the acts this year seen a little over confident and big headed, I remember very clearly how this behaviour did Matt no favours on Dancing on Ice a few months ago, Andrea has a beautiful voice which could become boring if we had 6 live shows like last year, but with only 3 live shows she might well get away with it. Her personality and smile likely to shine through and the show is about The Voice afterall. Mike Ward my other choice, I prefer singers over high pitched wailers.

      • AlisonR

        She has improved. I didn’t rate her first audition but the other night she was streets ahead of the other two in her battle.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    To stoney and Andy:

    If you fancy R&A for a top 3 finish, have you considered the current Winner w/o Attraction market odds and terms?

    R&A are currently on offer at 9/2 at one third the odds first two places. They’re 9/2 and on the drift.

    • Tish

      But thats still not top 3 finish, thats top 2?

    • Tish

      Hows does it work then? Betting w/o Attraction and other acts placing?

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        If Attraction win, and R&A finish second or third, the winner of this w/o Attraction market would be whoever finished second behind Attraction; whoever finished third behind Attraction would be second in the w/o Attraction market.

        This is my understanding. I imagine you just cross out, draw a line through Attraction’s finishing position. They are not part of the equation. (In this sense.)

        If they finish in the first three, the other acts in that first three must be first and second in the w/o Attraction market.

        It only falls down if Attraction finish 4th or worse. Then if R&A finished 3rd in the competition proper, then they would be unplaced in the w/o Attraction market.

        If my understanding of this is faulty, then wiser heads than mine will correct me, I trust and hope.

    • Tish

      Yes I get it now, thanks! And sorry for being a bit slow on the uptake!

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        It’s my boo-boo, Tish: not yours.

        I just realised (half an hour too late!) that there was a much more straight-forward way of explaining!

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          To Henry VIII:

          Oops! I couldn’t resist and jumped on.

          But if you think that’s a bit rash then consider my wildcard bets:

          James More
          Aliki
          Aaron Crow

          Haha! Rushes of blood to the head or what?!

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    It’s a w/o market.
    W/o stands for without, which is why Attraction are not priced in that market.

    So, if Attraction win the show outright, you then look to see who finished 2nd in the real-life BGT competition. If Jack finished 2nd then he would be the winner of the without-Attraction market. He is 1st behind Attraction. But as Attraction are, by definition, not a runner in the w/o Attraction market, then Jack, who has finished 1st behind Attraction (so to speak) is the winner of the best of the rest. He would have finished ahead of all other acts bar Attraction. Yes?

    If in the real-life BGT competition, Attraction won, Jack finished 2nd, and R&A finished 3rd: then R&A would have only been beaten by Jack in the without Attraction market. Therefore,Jack would be top and R&A would be second behind Jack.

    If Attraction finish second, then the winner of the competition proper is the winner of the without Attraction market; and the third placed finisher moves up to second in the without Attraction market.

    If Attraction finish third then the first two places in the competition proper mirror exactly the placings of the without Attraction market. You don’t need to eliminate the finishing position of Attraction because doing so does not bump up another act into the first two.

    If they finish fourth or worse, then a winning top three bet could become a losing EW without Attraction bet. Imagine your fancy finishes third in the competition proper, and Attraction finish 4th or worse, then your fancy would finish outside the top two (3rd) in the without Attraction market. You cannot bump your fancy up a place because Attraction did not finish ahead of your fancy.

    If this is wrong I think I will die of shame!!

    I can only pass on my understanding.
    Hope this helps, Tish.

  • Andy

    That sounds interesting Guildo, If the lads turn out another impressive performance from a late slot and a little bit of praise from the judges about being the best of British, The support is sure to come and they would likely to be there or thereabouts.

  • gwri78

    Guildo is right about that w/o market on r&a, if it were to touch 5/1 and you bet each way then it effectively pays 3.33/1 if they finish 2nd, or 1/3 if they get 3rd (thats real return on your entire ew stake, and as long as attraction beat them). Also worth remembering that anyone who took 12/1 ew 1/4 odds 3 places on the day of their semi effectively already has a bet that will pay evens if they finish 2nd or 3rd to anyone. Im grateful to whoever suggested betting at that point – probably stoney!

  • gwri78

    Re the voice – wiki says the shows just aired were recorded in Feb, if so a bet on an individual looks risky. Instead, a female winner is 5/4 but Will has all female team – think there’s value there somewhere…

  • Tish

    Apparently we’ll be surprised as to who gets the wildcard, it’s between Joseph Hall and Steve Hewlett. The majority of people want Steve so i’m guessing it’ll be Joseph? I don’t think he’ll pose much of a threat to the favourites, what do everyone else think?

  • stoney

    ok, after pondering it all week, and keeping a close eye on the top 3 market, i have decided to lump on richard and adam, the bookies are obviously worried about me as i have had to use 3 seperate bookmakers to get my full stake on, and all of them were changing the odds literally as i was trying to place the bet. But to me this is easy money, we already know the sarnie makers topped the vote on the biggest watched show of the semis (possibly series???) So cowell will not be silly as to not recognise there is money to be made from them, also i think back to holdens comment YOUS MAKE ME PROUD TO BE BRITISH. Maybe just maybe this will be the act they push to knock attraction of the gold spot. And for these reasons ive also had a punt on the 22/1 outright market. If this blows up in my face i will have given the bookies back almost half my winnings should attraction win and jack carrol fail to place, but as they say you win some you lose some 🙂

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      My pertinent worry here is that Aliki is unveiled as the wildcard (despite my having backed her to be so).
      I thought her performance in Saturday’s semi was one of the highlights of the entire series.
      Simon Cowell mentioning her in the same breath as Katherine Jenkins was, I thought, fair comment. Aliki was sensational.
      I hope his subsequent public apology to KJ might have provided another obstacle to Aliki’s reappearance.
      My choice would be Steve Hewlett. He’s earned another shot.

      • Tish

        It won’t be Steve, he’d take a chunk of Jacks vote. I read somewhere this morning its rumoured to be between Jack and Cormac and Joseph. I think it’ll be joseph. I can’t see another singing act being in the final, let alone of the child variety!

        • Tim B

          Tish, you keep assuming that Jack is the preferred comedy act, but we don’t yet know if this is the case. Francine may be of more interest to ITV. It’s likely that they’ll give her her own show, whereas I don’t think they’d give Jack one at this stage of his career.

  • Digital Spy poll results are out today, last year it was almost 100% spot on with the top 2 and their percentages.

    Attraction 47%
    Francine Lewis 13.66%
    Jack Carroll 12.6%
    Luminites 10%

    http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s107/britains-got-talent/news/a487833/britains-got-talent-digital-spy-readers-back-attraction.html

    These results seem to correlate with YouTube views also. Jonathan and Charlotte did well in polls and YouTube views before the final last year, so I’m worried about the chances of Richard and Adam. Is it possible that they could finish outside of the top 3?

    • stoney

      Of course its possible, id say its very close between positions 2-6 at the moment, it will all boil down to slot position and judges reactions/comments that decides this one. Id be absoutely astounded if francine finishes 2nd, she had twice as long as everyone else in the semi for performance time and was given every bit of help in order to win the semi, now shes up against the other winners she will come short, lets not forget she needs to tell everyone the name of her impressions before she actually does them, in truth she isnt actually top 3 material. I cant see R&A going anywhere near the start of the running order, as already said, they got pimp spot on the bank holiday show the biggest draw, and they topped the vote, i see no reason why they wont get continued support from tptb now

      • Tish

        I too don’t think Francine will place top 3. Not sure who said it before on here but her looks might hinder her chances a bit. In the semi final she repeated some of what she did in her audition and theres only so much she can do. In the real world, I don’t think she can progress much further like a singer/dancer can. When she was on VIP, she did a lot of what she did in her audition and she is already at her peak. R&A, Luminites and Jack Carrol each need the platform to progress. I don’t think a comedian can close the show in the same dramatic way that singers can such as R & A or Luminites.

        • Guildo Horn Forever

          Agree about Francine. In a match bet, I would take Attraction, Jack, R&A, Luminites or Gabz to beat Francine in the final.I’d be surprised if she finishes top 5.

          • Tim B

            I too would be surprised if Francine placed in the top 2, but mostly because I think producers will be pushing their marketable musical acts, Luminites and Richard and Adam, for top 3 instead. The stats show that Francine is marginally more popular than Jack. The top comedy act will almost certainly be the one placed later in the running order, and in the interest of variety they’ll have to be fairly apart.

  • stoney

    plus it is worth me adding that only boys aloud polled miserably in the same poll your talking about, scoring 5% yet they still finished 3rd

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      That’s a relief to hear, stoney. I also strongly fancy and want R&A to finish in the top three. I did expect them to register a low percentage on the poll ratings, but was hoping they would feature at least a little higher than they did.

  • stoney

    The year before that razi was digital spys favourite act scoring around 19% of the votes, in the final he received around 8, praying a similar fate awaits attraction, digital spy is not quite as reliable as your making out, especially with britains got talent, last years top 2 was an exception

  • Tish

    Theres been a fair bit of press on Attraction since they won their semi. Today I have read on quite a few that they failed to win Hungarys got talent and Germany got talent. A week is a long time for BGT to hold the final and the more press they get, the more i’m reading comments about the fact that they aren’t british and how wrong it would be for a non british act to come to Britain, win the prize money and bugger off back to their country. Maybe the week long break has given people time to talk it over and be swayed into backing their own.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      A week is a long time in politics, but it’s now Friday and the final’s tomorrow. I don’t think I’ve read any game-changing press stories yet. Also, it doesn’t feel as though public support has coalesced around one of their home-grown rivals (although I sense there is a lot of love and respect for Jack).

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Arrhhh! They sound like a dating loser, doing the rounds of (ultimate) rejection. The group version of Alice Fredenham!

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Call out to Andrew, Daniel or Dug – will you be sharing your predictions/tips/suggestions/thoughts for/on the BGT final?

    I feel a bit entrenched in my views (and bets) and am wondering if I should be engaged in any last-minute hedging and covering.

    • Tish

      I eagerly await a post from Andrew prior to tomorrows final too!

      • Good morning Guildo, Tish, we’ll have a preview post up tonight or tomorrow, though I apologise in advance that it’s unlikely to offer any dramatically fresh perspectives for readers who’ve been following this comments thread.

        This is the only downside of you guys conducting such a comprehensive analysis in the comments, it leaves us with very little chance to say anything that’ll surprise you! 🙂

  • Danny

    Wildcard leak in the Times?

    Or just dodgy journalism? A piece published today claims that Aliki is “..one of the frontrunners in Britain’s Got Talent..”

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/life/celebrity/celebritywatch/article3784487.ece [paywall, but you get a small preview]

  • Kevin

    I was thinking Luminites & Richard + Adam are pretty much guaranteed to perform to a reasonable level and are also likely to get decent slots. With Jack there is a chance that his act may not quite work out perfectly, with comedy there is no guarantee the way there might be for the singing acts. 9/2 and 5/1 respectively w/o Attraction look decent enough odds.

  • Tim B

    The guys at William Hill very kindly invited me onto their podcast for the BGT final. Here’s the link, if anyone’s interested: http://news.williamhill.com/a/radio/specials-podcast-britains-got-talent-final/

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