BGT 2013 discussion continuation thread: Semi-final 3

With a break tonight for the footy, BGT’s semi finals resume on Thursday with a heat comprising The Luminites (best-price 13/8 at the time of writing), Robbie Kennedy (9/4), Rosie O’Sullivan (9/2), Pre-Skool (12/1), Freelusion (25/1), Joseph Hall (33/1), Stevie Pink (40/1), MC Boy (40/1) and Thomas Bounce (66/1).

The first two heats have reinforced the point Bruce makes in the comments, that in the BGT semis: “Who is going to be favoured by Syco is a dangerous game to pay betting wise.” Unlike X Factor, we don’t have the intermediate stages of boot camp and judges’ houses to help us guess which way the wind has been blowing between the filming of the auditions and the start of the live shows. While both Richard and Adam and Jack Carroll enjoyed the smooth progress that was anticipated by the consensus in the Sofabet commenter community, there were also surprises in both heats.

In the first semi, the pre-show market had Band Of Voices vying for the win, but they were mercilessly lobbed under a bus. Last night, the pre-show favourite Alice Fredenham got ostensibly better treatment – a late-ish slot, a doubling-down on the nerves story in her VT, and highly positive comments – but turned in a performance that seemed designed primarily to dispel any doubts about the genuineness of her stage-fright.

Meanwhile, not many would have predicted that the pimp slot would be bestowed on neither Alice nor Jack but on Gabz Gardiner, hailed by Amanda as the new Adele. Gabz duly qualified behind Jack, meaning our winners have performed 9th and 8th in the running order and the other qualifiers 7th and 9th. Plus ca change.

A couple of things are worth bearing in mind ahead of the remainder of the semis. First, on the all-important running order, while on Monday the acts were announced at the start of the show in the order they would go on to perform, on Tuesday they weren’t.

Second, producers will surely be looking to avoid a lopsided show on Saturday week – so far they’ve got three singers and a comedian. Having said that, last year they had seven vocal acts out of eleven finalists, a record – in previous years it was 4/10, 4/10, 5/10 and 4/10.

They’ve got the option of a wildcard to even things out a bit if needed – and, interestingly, if you read the terms and conditions, it seems like technically they could look beyond the acts rejected out of the 2nd and 3rd placed finishers:

The judges may also in their sole discretion nominate a semi-final act to appear in the final as a ‘wildcard’ act. The nominated wildcard act may be any act that previously performed across the semi finals.

This presumably explains why there is still some money looking to back Alice Fredenham on Betfair at low three-figure prices, even after her elimination last night. Would they dare?

Commenters have already been speculating about the third semi-final – at this stage JScouser fancies Robbie, Bruce is on Pre-Skool, Tish makes the case for the Luminites, and Guildo is tempted by qualification odds on Freelusion. As ever, at this stage you’re betting largely on who you suspect will get the better treatment in the show itself.

Do keep the discussion going below.

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70 comments to BGT 2013 discussion continuation thread: Semi-final 3

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Yeah, a collection of good points from Bruce. Has helped me realise the EW bet I placed on the Luminites for the comp outright was a touch optimistic. Am still happy with the odds of 25/1 I took – couldn’t see them drifting to any further than that.

    Also prompted me to think about why certain acts are less likely to prosper on BGT rather than XF, both shows being (primarily) broadcast on Saturday evenings on ITV.

    I suppose I consider this upcoming semi a weakish one because neither Spellbound nor Aliki feature.

    I think Bruce mentioned about a tv poll that registered support for Rosie. Would be interested in looking at that.

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    BTW, I disagree with the new reading of Alice/Fred.
    I could elaborate but don’t expect to see her on the show again – so from a BOV it doesn’t merit the time commitment.

  • Boki

    Anyway, Alice is a second favorite in the wildcard winner market.

  • AlisonR

    I favour Robbie. I know it’s another singer, but I think they may use the wildcard for a dance act.

  • Boki

    According to wiki Attraction is on Saturday!?

  • Tish

    So they are! Along with Jordan O’Keefe.

  • DB

    I’ve sided with Luminites for tonight’s semi final – a polished group who have a number of songs on youtube already. Their cover of Rita Ora looks good enough to be performed in either the semi or the final. Does anyone know what songs they’re looking to do?

  • Ben Gray

    I’ve been having a go at BGT. I did very well on Monday scoring £130 out of a free bet. Tuesday was a bit of a scrap but still managed to profit £37.50.

    For SF3 I have put a small amount on Freelusion to qualify at odds of 13.0 just for the sheer value of it. Their act is impressive but it’s a big question mark whether them being foreign or not and up against Attraction will make them favoured or opposed by producers. After all there was dance crew rivalry in the final between Flawless and Diversity… why are all the good ones this year not British? Argh! 😛

    I also have money on Luminites to win because the bookies haven’t got the winner wrong so far this week so wanted to get in on that while the odds were still over evens. I also put a bit on PreSkool to qualify because a big troupe of kids has to come from somewhere and PreSkool are easily the cutest so far.

    It’s the two singers, Robbie and Rosie that make me nervous. Their odds aren’t that great and they are both good, but are they going to be that favoured alongside Luminites and with Freelusion and Pre-Skool to compete with, I wonder?

    I just want to cover myself as much as I can for tonight since I’m really needing the money at the moment but don’t want to throw too much into the ring since the money takes 10 seconds to leave my account and a week for the winnings to return. ¬_¬

    Any advice on those singers greatly appreciated. Might have to be in-play decisions.

  • Andy

    Not sure we are going to get that kind of information DB before they take to the stage.
    As ever, at this stage you’re betting largely on who you suspect will get the better treatment in the show itself.
    Simon should favour Luminites tonight.
    Rosie is not going to sell records if Leanne Mitchell couldn’t, both have big voices but I don’t think Simon will have plans for her.
    Same goes for Robbie (not another guy with a guitar) Kennedy, the music industry is flooded with male guitar players so I don’t think he will get much pimping.
    Luminites could well find a future in the industry and Simon sure to know this, I’m expecting Luminites to get a leg up tonight.
    and I think they might well win even without any favourable treatment.
    The girl fluttering her eyelashes alone will bring in thousands of votes.

  • Chatterbox5200

    The Luminites cover of Rita Ora sounds great, and although I love the beatboxing in it (something that does set them apart from others), it may not appeal to the full BGT audience.

    I did find a cover of “Streets of London” that is much more stripped back – considering that the judges made particular reference to their harmonies, Steph’s voice (Simon stating that it was “Amazing”) and that their song choice was “Absolutely genius” (Simon). I think this would go down really well.

  • Snickster

    I’ve just taken 12/1 on Stevie Pink reaching the final. Its an outside chance, but I can’t see them putting through 2 more singers tonight, with 3 already in the final. Luminites provide more variety so I think they’ll go through as winners, then another act aside from Robbie and Rosie will be pushed. This is likely to be either Pre-Skool or Stevie Pink. He provides the fun, camp slightly ridiculous side which BGT loves (I think they usually manage to get 1 Stavros Flatley act through), whilst also being very talented and a great illusionist. I also remember Simon saying in a very early interview that even though he hates them he’d like to see a magician in the finals this year. 12/1 seems like good odds to me.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      After reading your thoughts, had a little dabble on Mr Pink myself. Win or lose, it’s still excellent thinking.

      A few problems for me with the much,much shorter odds on Pre-Skool qualifying.

      a) They’re not as good as Youth Creation (at least not this year). Plus the public only saw YC three evenings ago. A fresh comparison between the two is inevitable.
      b) YC could only finish third in their semi (and that’s in the public vote).
      c) There’s 3 dance acts in this semi.
      d) There might be a few mums who prefer to vote for Joseph, who find Joseph catnip in another way.
      e) The final is already crammed with kids (and if they now see Jack as plan A (the prime anti-Attraction candidate) then maybe enough vote-splitting is enough).

      Of course Pre-skool can qualify, but at the odds I much prefer your selection.

      Only thing is: who will vote for Mr Pink? .

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        P.S.

        Another way to look at point a) is that despite the vote spliting for YC and Aris they still filled 2nd and 3rd places in a 9 runner field behind an outstanding and outstandingly pimped winner, R&A.
        Still think that PS’s Qualif odds are horribly cramped. Though it’s likely that in a judge’s vote for who finishes 2nd Alesha Dixon will give them the nod over any other act.

  • Dont have a strong fancy here tonight, tried to get a strong view on the odds, but cant.

    Just want to put this thought out there…

    Stevie Pink at 16/1 to qualify.

    Perhaps Robbie & Stevie go through, leaving Luminites the wildcard favourite?
    Or Luminites & Stevie go through leaving Robbie the wildcard favourite?

    Tricky one tonight. But dont want to forget about that wild card angle.

  • Snickster

    JScouser – Great minds! I think 16/1 is a great price for Stevie Pink, was happy with 12’s

    • Got take into account how quickly Simon reacted to to Amanda & Alesha, buzzing him in the audition, questioning why they had buzzed his act.

      Perhaps he knew how good Stevie is in advance, he does say at beginning he has performed in 30 different countrys before.

  • Kevin

    I think Rosie is a strong candidate tonight. She may just possess that touch of quality to pick up votes.

  • Kevin

    After Rosie’s audition Simon said: ‘Absolutely bloody fantastic! You have a really throwback authentic soul voice. Amazing.’ The 11/2 might be value over the 11/10 on The Luminites but I do agree they look the most likely winner. With limited evidence though the short odds on them are not that tempting. I think the Robbie audition was dramatic but not convinced his actual quality is anywhere near that of Rosie. On at 11/2 to win (small bet) and 13/10 to qualify. Hoping the running order will be kind and indicate positivity. Best of luck to all.

    • Guildo Horn Forever

      Just re-watched her audition. Wondered why her voice was so breathy and that’s down to her mic technique: For such a ‘big voice’ she (out of nerves) clutches the mic too close to her lips. Am sure they, in the meantime, will have coached her to flex her elbow a little. Can expect improved vocal.
      Quite a pretty face but, imo, she has little sex appeal.

  • stoney

    looking at the odds, the running order may well be favouring pre skool to go through in seond place

  • stoney

    they just threw out a red herring on the running order at the start of the show, i was about to lump on stevie pink going through until i realised it wasnt the running order as freelusion were named about 4th

  • Kevin

    Bad news for Mister Kennedy

  • Tish

    At least Robbie hasn’t got pimp slot, just need rosie after and then i think it’ll be safe to say its gone to the Luminites 🙂

  • stoney

    ive topped up at evens following robbies early slot, should be another easy night

  • stoney

    pre skool will not challenge luminites with a midway slot

  • Andy

    Major gamble on pre skool all evening.
    Put the frighteners up me.
    I’ve had a saver on them just in case.
    can safely rule Robbie out.
    What has Rosie got ?

  • stoney

    oh dear simon was the early buzzer tonight!

  • stoney

    i must say im glad i didnt follow the gamble on pre skool, much happier putting all my eggs in the luminites to win basket

    • Tish

      They weren’t that good but they are so adorable and i’m still confident they will be top 3 and that the judges will pick them to qualify. Waheey!!!! Luminites must had pimp slot as rosie up next 🙂 🙂

  • stoney

    yep luminites now around 1/3 to win the heat, this is like taking candy from a baby

  • stoney

    thank you mr cowell for taking a cheap shot at rosie there lol

    • Tish

      Ha ha, all praise from the judges and then to make sure she doesn’t go through, chuck in a little negativity at the end from Simon (aka God who everyone listens too). Really excited to see what Luminites are going to do, its obviously going to be ‘pimping’ awsome

  • Andy.

    Very true Stoney.
    Attraction are next up for the cheap shot.

  • stoney

    DAM just missed out on 20/1 on joeseph hall going through, but took 13/2 in the end 🙁

  • Andy

    Was that the leg up I mentioned.
    I think so.

  • stoney

    they were actually brilliant, not just saying that cos i got a stack load riding on them lol

  • DB

    Luminites = Average. Cowell talking them up + pimp slot BIG boost. What a crap semi final all round! Not in top 3 outright 100%

  • Tish

    Result!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  • stoney

    another great night, almost landed a double, but cant grumble

  • stoney

    bloody hell saturday nights semi (which ive got priority tickets for) is a strong one, aliki, jordan okeefe and attraction, looks like there definately out to nobble the favourites

  • Tish

    I agree, saturday is going to be interesting! Tomorrow is looking extremley weak and I think Francine will win outright and AJ and Chloe with that magician in the last 2. I want to now lump on jack for the win but odds are shortening. Do you think after saturdays semi results, jacks odds will creep up a little? I want value so nis it worth waiting?

  • Andy.

    Healthy profit here also.
    Good night had by all.
    looks like attraction on Saturday which is a worry.
    Jack hot in the outright markets.
    My favourites R&A on the drift.
    Having loads of fun never the less.
    Stoney your bookie going to be putting limits on your account very shortly.

    • stoney

      i shop around so it shouldnt be a problem for me i wouldnt think. I made 3 grand last year, im well on track to beat that this year, and thats not including my stakes ive laid out for the final, i could potentially double last years figure. I did warn about the richard and andrew drift. i expect jack to be favourite come the night of the final

  • DB

    What annoys me is I just read an article about how Ladbrokes took a £10,000 bet for Jack @ 9/2. Well they wouldn’t let me get more than £250 e/w on @ 8s before his semi, and funnily enough the same maximum figure applied when I got my friend to put on the same amount via his account!
    I was limited to £500 on Luminites @ 11/8 to win tonight’s semi. Unfortunately there’s no liquidity on betfair so what’s one to do apart from go shop to shop with cash?

  • Andy

    Yes that possible.
    Cannot call the outright market yet again.
    one minute I think its clear the next its back up in the air again. It will probably come down to what happens on the night.

  • DB

    I can’t have Attraction at the current prices. Difficult semi-final against Aliki (who I half expected to be put in tomorrow’s spot)….I can easily see her going favourite for the outright with a good performance on Saturday evening with maybe Jordan being put through & Attraction winning the wildcard?

  • Boki

    Simon said he has an idea for the wildcard but other judges won’t like it. Omg not Alice again 🙁

  • DB

    Haha – let’s hope not. Surely everyone’s bored of her staged nerves, fake panic attack and mediocre voice by now?

  • Guildo Horn Forever

    Missed watching tonight’s semi, so got back in and jumped straight onto checking the BGT outright betting. Super pleased to see my four EW bets for the final are the first four in the betting now!!!! Early days though…

    Crikey, that Illuminate win was as obvious as it seemed. It felt a little too easy to be true – which was my only doubt.

    I think the problem with Rosie was that she wasn’t sexy. In her own way, Leanne M was.

    Was Robbie as dull and earnest as in his audition?

    I think that’s three favourites on the trot, now.

    Must check the runners and riders for tomorrow’s semi!

    Also: had EW wagers on Banoffee for the Oaks and Chopin for the Derby. Feels quaint having a bet on horse racing! Anyone else had a dabble on the middle distance classics?

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