Eurovision 2013: The result

The full scoreboards for the grand final and two semi-finals have been published. You can find the one for the final here. In the first heat – which you can access here – Denmark won, beating Russia by 11 points with Ukraine in third. Estonia crept through in tenth place, six points ahead of Serbia. Slovenia were last.

In the second heat – the results are here – Azerbaijan beat Greece into second with Norway third. Georgia were the surprise tenth placers with 63 points, and San Marino 11th with 47 points. Latvia were last.

Finally, a big thank you to all the Sofabet commenters for being so insightful and encouraging to me and each other over the Eurovision season. I’m already looking forward to it kicking off again. In the meantime, Sofabet will be covering the later stages of Britain’s Got Talent and The Voice, before we return from a summer break for the usual X Factor shenanigans.

90 comments to Eurovision 2013: The result

  • Mrs Shrewd

    Cheers Daniel, a thoroughly enjoyable and challenging year. Thanks for all your hard work and input. Will there be a lessons learnt article or something to reflect on the impact of the new rule changes and process for deciding the running order?

  • Mrs Shrewd

    Also meant to say, I hope you came out of it okay result wise?

  • Daniel

    Hi Mrs Shrewd and I appreciate your kind words. I didn’t hit the profit levels of 2010-12 but beat those of 2006-9. I’ll settle for that. There will definitely be some analysis of the results. I’ll wait till the televote / jury split results are published, which is usually about a month from now.

  • Justin

    Dan, well done and superb effort this year. Enjoyed every word of your excellent articles and wise words. Look forward to the analysis in due course.

  • Missed most of the show last evening but caught a few of the performances. The Russian effort. How did that manage 5th? Utterly DAF (pardon my French) and sung by a fat princess Fiona. I guffawed at one point near the song climax when the male backing whatever to Dina’s left kissed the cheek of his fellow Heal-the Worlder, with whom he was linking hands.
    More amazing was Belarus scoring 50 points. I think the choreographer must have been Austin Powers – was disappointed he didn’t make a cameo.
    I think the ESC still likes to keep one foot in the past (which I adore to laugh at and is part of its appeal).

  • Hey Daniel. It’s always wunderful following your blog. But what we’re your personal favourites in yesterday’s final. Actually, ALL my favourites managed to enter the TOP 10: Norway, Italy, Malta, Netherlands and Hungary. Beautiful gems. Eurovision in Netherlands suddenly got very popular again :-).

  • tpfkar

    Thanks to Daniel and everyone who’s contributed; my first proper green year and clearly even the experts found it harder than usual, so not bad for this rank amateur. Hope everyone is happy with their results. Signing off for a while but hope to be back around X Factor time – take care everyone.

  • Thanks to Daniel for his insighteful posts throughout the whole Eurovision buildup.
    I’d like to echo his words too, thanking all of my fellow contributors on this site, many of you have swayed me one way or another during my bets, the knowledge on display is second to none on the Internet.

    Personally, my profits are down this year. If this voting system is kept, then my analysis thought train is going to need tweaking, I look forward to seeing the splits

  • clarkee

    Cheers for the info this year daniel, was a tricky year for sure, i was sure Netherlands had a chance of winning with right draw but semis show that was indeed not the case, i did have Netherlands top 10 though which turned out to be a saviour. I decided to go against the Denmark party with Norway even although it didn’t sound like a winner. Always knew beating Denmark was going to be tough anyway

    I came out a little bit down, but Netherlands top 10 meant that i came out pretty much unscathed. I am hoping that next year is a bit more open in the winner market, the last 2 years now a massive favourite has gone onto win.

    See ya next year guys and hope you all had a profitable year!

  • Thanks for all your blogs Daniel, Very helpful as always.

    I found myself betting a sizeable chunk on Netherlands top 10 @:1.73 and then started taking pop shots on all kinds of things on betfair (all of which didn’t win). Even looking back in hindsight I really do struggle to see anything I would realistically of bet on which was actually a good price…

    After my reminiscing over last night, i have 3 questions for you people,

    1. Did anyone see Malta getting top 10, and if so what price was it? (and for that matter Hungary too????)

    2.I still can’t believe Ireland came last with “the pimp slot” and i would really like to know the price on that 1 (seriously how did UK beat this with Bonnie Tylers terrible croaky voice)

    3. Though I never rated it myself, how did Georgia bamboozle people so much and manage to sneak it through to the final (in 10th) but nobody picked up that it was basically the soviet version of San Marino (in that everybody raved about how great it was, despite not having a clue what the hell was going on in it) I still wish I layed this for top 10 at the ridiculous prices it was getting backed at.

    All in all, even though i managed a slight profit, I find myself extremely perplexed at the new voting system and the producer choosing what order they get to go out. They really are making it alot less of a crapshoot thesedays.

    Cheers for wasting your time to read these hungover thoughts…

    • john kef

      1. I don’t remember the price for Malta, but for Hungary was 4.50 at bwin yesterday

      2. Ireland had the pimp slot but with a series of 7-8 very good songs i guess that after the first minute of the Georgian song, many people got borred and started wondering who’s gonna win it and nobody paid attention at the last 2 songs. That was the case at my party yesterday.

      I also have another theory and please don’t call me racist or anything but the Irish song obviously was after the gay votes, so obviously that made it almost prohibited for all the others to vote. That was also the case for Finland. Eurovision stopped being a close gay club and has a broader audience

      3. I have to admit that my 2 failures this year was Georgia’s and Germany’s top10 and i have to admit that i was carried away from many people here. Lesson learned.

      The new system has changed many things. The allies still exist, especially in the ex-soviet block, but you can see these countries vote also western countries with high scores.

      See also the scores of the 1st semi. I was expecting Croatia-Serbia-Montenegro-Slovenia vote for each other, but that was not the case.

      I hope i didn’t bore you with such a long answer

    • I recall reading on this site somewhere about the EBU or ESC president or some such big-wig using an algorithm on the order of nations declaring their scores. I remember thinking to myself ‘equalising effect…to-the-wire finish…minimise dead-wood declarations…etc’ then reading on, becoming a little confused and so then nipping onto Youtube to watch Margaret and Farid again…

      I wish I’d thought further.

      You look at the final standings table and it’s proof that the best tips for this year’s ESC were there for everyone to see, when you first saw the running order for the second half entrants for the final. And obviously proof that the semi-final standings were scrutinised under an electron microscope.

      The three bets were:

      Azerbaijan EW.
      Georgia not to finish in the top ten
      Ireland to finish in the bottom three; EW for last place.

      It’s also of interest where Russia was placed in the running order compared to Norway (especially when you check the finishing positions in their respective semi finals).

      That the first four home were drawn in the sequence 18-20-22-24 now seems very amusing.

      I’m not sure I want to know what the price of Ireland was to come last!!

      Of course, if this non-random entrant running order is still in the place for next year, the value in it will be snapped up in a heartbeat. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if the bookies suspend betting and re-jig their prices subsequently when that information is due.

      If I hadn’t have posted the above you can bet your bottom dollar someone else would have (tourism destroys tourism, as they say) so no red arrows for this post, thank you!!

      • Yes, there were insider trading opportunities for everyone, made public and staring us all in the face.

      • john kef

        If i remember correctly Ireland’s price to finish last was 11.00 or 12.00 at bet365

      • Chatterbox5200

        I managed to take 4.7 for Malta and 7.2 for Hungary to make the Top 10, after the semi-finals. In my mind they stood out from most other songs and therefore were memorable.

        My best bet of the night was to take 9/1 with PaddyPower for the straight forecast of Denmark/Azerbaijan.

        I waited for Denmark’s odds to drift from 1.7 to 2.5 after the first three jury results were announced, knowing that neithe San Marino (0 pts) or Albania (1 pt) were likely to score it highly, before lumping on to top up the 11/1 taken a while ago (many thanks to Daniel for the recommendation).

        Overall, with Greece backed for Top 10 and Germany laid for Top 10, it was a very pleasing and profitable year for me.

    • I took a screenshot of Betfairs prices for top 10 and top 5 an hour or so before the final started.
      Malta were 4.9 top 10 finish

  • stoney

    Always interesting reading the views of others on this site, even if i dont agree with them, as i said yesterday i made my money on ukraine top 4 and netherlands top 10, The one bet i went with on the views of others from this site was spain for last postion which was out by a whisker so cant grumble too much at that one, i missed out on finland for top 10 and germany for top 5 big country, but thankfully the bets i missed out on were not as big stakes as the 2 that came in, at the start of the night i said id settle for ukraine top 4 and netherlands top 10, and neither were in any doubt past the 10th country voting point, so all in all another good eurovision song contest for me, this competition is proving to be my most successful gambling source in recent years!

  • Unfortunately I came away from Eurovision 2013 rather bruised and battered with a financial loss. I might give it another go next year, I might not. I will keep one eye on this site to see if I can pick up anything rock solid and safe just to claw my losses back.

  • Not that I really want to start betting on thoroughly uninteresting shows like Got Talent and X Factor as I don’t know nearly as much about them as I do Eurovision. I’m certainly not developing a gambling problem either, hah!

  • An observation on last night – the songs that had lyrics floating across the backing screens (Malta, Hungary and Belgium) all significantly outperformed what was generally expected of them at the start of the week.

    I remember there was some negative comment about this beforehand, but could it be that it might actually help voters to connect with a song? Or is it just a coincidence? Would love to hear others’ thoughts.

    • I think these songs were just simply underestimated. Hungary I should have seen coming, it was #2 on the download charts prior to the final.
      Malta was dimissed (probably) due to it not performing well for televoters in the past, but it shows with a good song it will pick up votes.
      Belgium is more of a mystery

  • Daniel

    Ireland was matched on Betfair at 70-1 to be last.

    • Ahhhrrr! I thought that would be the kind of enormous price offered at some point. I looked at oddschecker just before the first results were due to be reported back to Malmo, and I’m sure Ireland were into 50-1 to 66-1 in the WIN market!! I also remember feeling concerned that Azer had drifted out to (I think) 25-1 to 28-1.

      That calculated second-half running order was the ultimate tipster.

  • chewy wesker

    Thanks Daniel for sharing so much info with us all, eurovision wouldn’t be half the fun without you or the sofabet site. I had backed Denmark for the win at 1.99 on betfair, was a little on edge after the first few rounds of the scoring, when Denmark drifted to 2.77. But I felt it was always in the bag. Had also Azerbaijan for top 5 + Russia for top 10. Shock of the night was Georgia I went in big for top 10, alarm bells should of really sounded for me in the second semi, when they were 1.1 to back to qualify!!! Maybe a jury score had been leaked!!! Or perhaps it was just that they went on too late with the draw at 25. Anyway we live and learn. I’ll be back next year for more tips from you and the rest of the guys on here,
    All the very best.

  • Daisy

    So is everybody already have there e/w money on Azerbaijan for next year. They have been the only reliable bet for me in the last few contests. Come on 2014

  • john kef

    My analysis about Eurovision 2013 and my bets.

    The clear favourite won for 2nd straight year and the Top4 included the top4 favourites. The 2 biggest surprises of the year were Georgia and Germany being left out of the top10 probably because of the over-estimation of their recent history.

    Another fact is that Western Europe is coming back to the contest under the new system and my prediction is that a winner way arise from that block very soon (2014? 2015? Malta starts building a good momentum…)

    Ex soviet block cannot help more than 3 countries to be in the top10 and the nordic block no more than 2. The favourites of the future must have a pan-european appeal to do well with the juries and the televoting,

    Originallity is also an issue. Being honest will reward you. Hungary-Lithuania-Estonia-Netherlands proved that.

    Regarding to my bets

    I got a 36.69% profit of almost 500 euros. I backed Denmark @3.00 and 2.85 in early April

    I won a decent amount of money backing Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Norway top4
    Greece 5-10, Netherlands-Italy top10

    I lost a significant amount on Germany’s and Georgia’s top10 finishing and some covers for the winner. That’ll make me wiser for next year

  • I invite you to analyze the results of this year’s competition with the interactive map Eurovisualizer.

    Among other things, you might find it interesting to look at the very localized distribution of points to Italy and the very scattered distribution of points to Malta. Both Denmark and Azerbaijan received points from most countries, but Azerbaijan notably missed out on points from most of the Nordic countries.

    Here it is: eurovisualizer.com.

  • Boki

    This was a relatively strange year and comparing to 2012 my profit halved but still it’s my second best year so I can’t complain. I just felt mentally drained (again) and had to spend the whole next day in the nature (don’t lough please). Many things I presumed this year about several entries before the rehearsals changed drastically after seeing them and the semis on tv (including general buzz). So I felt that all that effort beforehand was pointless and next year will try to start fresh as late as possible.

    My highlights from the final were high placement of Azer, NL top10, some top10 on Hungary (which actually made-up for losses of Hungary NQ – big mistake).

    Biggest change of stance was rg. ex-rus. I rated Georgia as best, Russia bland but decent and Ukraine worst. After rehearsals/semis Ukraine came best out while shouty Georgia came last in my rankings, while Azer above all because of amazing staging. Since Russia was still bland with worst draw couldn’t decide which one to lay so layed both Russia and Georgia for top4 and top10. Three out those 4 landed, can’t complain.

    Another impression is that market was really clueless. Finland dropped in-play for top10, Moldova drifted badly, nobody saw Malta there, but the biggest winner in top10 battle was Ireland who shortened to 2.2 end ended last :). I’m glad I got that one as a borderline semi qualifier but unfortunately didn’t believe it anymore later on.

    Biggest loser (not mine I mean but in the competition) was Germany I would say, didn’t pick any votes from anyone despite radio friendly hit. Seasoned performer maybe? I remember Gert and I thought she could never win because of that but I lost my H2H against UK as everyone else.

    Looking forward for the split results to see the effect of the famous new rule…

  • Montell

    I agree that analyzing Eurovision sometimes is really exhausting but it’s a pleasant job anyway.

    I also wanted to as all of you what songs are your favorite this year? Are you listening to Eurovision songs after Eurovision? I mean would you have those songs on your mp3 player?

    My personal favorite this year are:
    Netherlands
    Greece
    Italy
    Romania
    Ukraine
    Hungary

    I was betting for Hungary NQ in the semifinal but yesterday I realized that it’s a very original, sincere, simple and outstanding song (at least in this year contest) and I love it.

    • stoney

      funnily enough i actually found myself singing tear drops to myself earlier, and i think it was a worthy winner although i wasnt touching them odds! Kitty Brucknell from X factor is gonna try and represent the uk for the next eurovision, and judging by her x factor performances she is just what we need to make people take notice of us again. The last 2 entrants have been a joke to be honest, absolute has beens

  • I found the voting last night to be surreal, frankly. I felt like I was having an out of body experience. Might have been all the money at stake.

    I kind of felt my heart sink into my stomach when my Mum texted me after Denmark and said “that’s the winner.” I figured there’s no point dashing for some in-play, I’m covered with a German top 10, Natalie smashed it.

    Oh. Oh dear.

    So, what I will definitely take away from this year is to mainly stick by my theories that I’ve written above, since four of the top five were countries I had described as having some extent of radio friendliness. (Ukraine… just baffles me. How the hell did that come 3rd?) but no matter how much I narrow down what clearly appear to be the best, strongest packages of song, staging, vocal and to some extent country’s voting power. I have to pay more attention to first instincts and bear in mind that the voting, even with the tweaked 50/50 system, is still going to appear disproportionately friendly.

    Next year I might as well just jump right on an Azerbaijani top 10 so long as they pick something even half-decent. Until then, I’ll be licking my £560 wounds.

  • Excellent Eurovision coverage again Daniel, EV, Ben, Chewy etc. Enjoyed reading your analysis. Germany ended up swinging me just into the red – just small though so still eating this month 🙂

    One question. How are Azerbaijan allowed props when they have no musical input at all. The last thing i want to see is a stage full of gimmicks such as acrobats, unicyclists, break dancers or fire-eaters littering the stage. So why were Azerbaijan allowed to support a generally week song with a very effective and visually outstanding gimmick.

  • Boki

    Btw, out of first 12 in the final there were only 4 from semi2 and one big5 – that makes 7 from ‘weaker’ semi1.

  • eurovicious

    Updated semifinal qualification statistics here: http://blog.prinz.de/grand-prix/die-ewige-halbfinalbilanz-des-eurovision-song-contest-kaum-erfolg-fur-underdogs/ (scroll down)

    Transcript of secretly-filmed Azeri vote-rigging video: http://eurovisiontimes.wordpress.com/2012/05/31/eurovision-voting-2012-did-azerbaijan-cheat/ Key takeaway quote: “We’ve done this before, in different countries. […] We’ve sent out our people to about fifteen countries. […] We have the entire Baltics covered.” Note how Jon Ola Sand immediately dismisses the allegations out of hand.

    With Turkey, Bosnia, Portugal and the luckless Central European triumvirate of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia already having left, I think (in fact I hope) we’re going to be looking at more withdrawals next year, especially given the failure of the entire Balkan peninsula to qualify apart from Romania and Greece. What reason do Austria, Switzerland, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Cyprus etc. have to continue entering, when whatever they send is pretty much doomed? With rumours of jury corruption and vote-buying swirling, as well as “fix” theories regarding SVT and Denmark, the EBU needs to take action to stop even more countries dropping out. Eurovision has become a PR platform for and plaything of a small handful of post-Soviet regimes – Azerbaijan, Russia, Belarus, now Ukraine too. (I obviously exclude the democratic Baltic states, Moldova, Armenia and Georgia from this.)

    As of this year, to my dismay, the 50%-jury system is no longer working. A member of the Moldovan jury even told the domestic press yesterday that she gave her maximum to Romania even though she didn’t like the song. And that’s just a drop in the ocean symptomatic of a wider tendency. There have long been points-swapping rumours surrounding Azerbaijan, Malta, San Marino, Albania, Bulgaria, Montenegro and other countries, many of which often don’t reach the televote threshold so submit a 100%-jury result, a fact the EBU apparently tries to keep quiet. No way should Georgia, Germany and Ireland have been so low if the juries were doing their job correctly. No way should Monetta have been three places above Moran, boobs or no boobs. And no way should Ukraine and Azerbaijan have been so high. Ryan wasn’t a Tooji, he really sang that song. When effing Jedward, who can’t even sing, are Ireland’s best scoring entry and best jury result in a decade, something is wrong with the contest. When as quality a production as Waterfall is 2 points above Solayoh and below Belgium, something is wrong.

    The EBU did nothing about Azerbaijan’s behaviour in 2009 (when the regime traced the fifty-something people who voted for Armenia and brought them in for questioning) and did nothing in 2012 despite Azerbaijan locking up activists, destroying people’s homes, bulldozing the offices of a human rights organisation with no warning, etc etc. During contest week, German bloggers in Azerbaijan were detained and interrogated on suspicion of industrial espionage (http://blog.prinz.de/grand-prix/verhaftet-und-verhort-was-prinz-bloggern-in-aserbaidschan-widerfuhr/). Another German journalist who’d written critical coverage of the regime was singled out and deliberately humiliated when passing through airport security on the way back and forced to publicly strip. The EBU also did nothing about the situation in Cyprus last year, where Azerbaijan mysteriously received 3500 text votes but not a single phone call (http://eurovisiontimes.wordpress.com/2012/05/31/eurovision-voting-2012-did-azerbaijan-cheat/). All of this is public knowledge.

    On a different tack, someone tweeted me during the SF1 press conference (which I didn’t watch) to say the way Emmelie chose her ballot seemed suspicious – apparently taking quite a while and requiring consultation with the HOD. Then there’s this, which was outside the arena after the final: twitpic.com/crlg5b. The glitter rain and “winner” packaging not given to any other song, which would likely have been turned down in previous years as it would have been seen as giving the entry in question an unfair advantage. The break after Denmark in the semi to clear it all up again. The choice of Malmö in the first place, resulting in most fans staying in the Danish capital. And the rumours circulating since early May that Denmark had already started preparing hosting duties. Knowing that Azerbaijan was trying to win again by rigging the televote and bribing juries, did SVT/DR on behalf of the EBU – unable or unwilling to counteract this through formal means – decide the best way to prevent Azerbaijan winning and keep the contest in the west, thereby precluding another storm of terrible media coverage, was to fix it for Copenhagen instead?

    Take it or leave it, but there’s a growing pile of evidence that our beloved contest is rotten to the core and that the EBU knows but doesn’t care. None of the above will have escaped their attention. The EBU will continue to do nothing now because it is institutionally corrupt (in no small part due to being publicly funded).

    • This feels to me like a mix of everything from very relevant criticism and suspicions, to slightly out-there theories (Malmö chosen as host city to fix the competition for Denmark – really?) and complaints about results for some songs not being what one might wish for. It’s definitely a discussion that needs to be had, but I think it would benefit from some weeding among the theories least supported by hard facts.

      Oh and regarding the list of countries that are doomed regardless of what they send: had it been written before 2010, Germany would definitely have been in that list. Last year, the Netherlands would have been there. I personally think most of those countries’ biggest problems is that they keep sending embarrassingly poor songs.

      • DashBerlin

        It was a controversial decision to choose Malmo, instead of Stockholm.
        The lack of accomodation in Malmo, seems an obvious thing to point out, given how many people had to stay in Copenhagen.
        For instance, for a city in the USA to host the Superbowl, one of the criteria is to have x amount of hotel rooms

        • It was controversial, yes, and nobody was more angry about it than me (having been looking forward to staying two weeks with family and friends in Stockholm, going to rehearsals). But it was also very logical: the SVT budget simply didn’t allow for the much more expensive Friends Arena (which seemed like the obvious choice at first). The Swedish budget was a fraction of that of Azerbaijan’s.

          Most of the time, the simplest explanation is also the more likely one. That they would have chosen Malmö to fix the competition in favor of Denmark (months before anyone even knew they’d be sending a killer song) seems… implausible. To put it diplomatically.

          • sonovox

            Sweden was hosting the world hockey championships in Stockholm. It would have been a direct clash. Malmö’s proximity to Copenhagen airport therefore made it the obviously sensible choice.

            I didn’t see anything suggestive of Danish victory outside the arena beforehand. And, guys, do get over the Ukraine-bashing. It wasn’t nearly as bad as the comments on here suggested (which were pretty much just an echo chamber of assertions, anyhow), and was extremely well sung into the bargain.

            That’s not to say that there aren’t some very serious concerns in this thread. Especially those relating to Azerbaijan.

        • Martin F.

          Nobody “had to” stay in Copenhagen though, just like nobody “had to” stay in Cologne in 2011. Both cities had tons of perfectly affordable apartments and rooms on sites like airbnb, for example – this year we stayed in two gorgeous places by Triangeln station/Folkets Park (Euro Fan Café) for about €30 per person per night.

          In fact, I liked Malmö (and specifically Möllevången) so much that I’d even consider commuting from there *to* Copenhagen next year. 😀

          • Martin F.

            (Watch them choose Herning or Aalborg now I’ve said that, obviously.)

          • DashBerlin

            Well I looked at Hotel Rooms in January and was left with just £250+ a night options in a couple of hotels not in the centre.
            the appartments you speak of may be fine for some fans going to visit, but I needed the functionality of a hotel

          • Martin F.

            Ah, OK. Well, I’d kind of expect that in any comparable situation – the more specific or restricted your requirements, the less there’ll be available.

    • Btw, couldn’t seem to find the Azeri vote-buying transcript – is the link perhaps to the wrong text, or am I just missing it? Would be really interesting to read.

  • eurovicious

    And now there’s this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22600892

    Russia has received points from Azerbaijan every year and it makes sense the Azeri voters and jury would have also supported Russia this year, as the article indicates. Azerbaijan also certainly wouldn’t want to snub Russia in this way, so I doubt it’s a double-bluff. As Azerbaijan gave its 12 to Ukraine, it’s also not a case of tactically avoiding giving points to the competition.

  • http://escxtra.com/2013/05/full-televote-results-announced/

    The Italian televotes results have been published and if you compare just the numbers of Ukraine and Moldova in semi-final with those in the final it strongly suggests that Ukraine also bought televotes, in the semi at least.
    If you consider that Ukraine had a much better draw in the final than Moldova, while in the semi it was Moldova who had the better draw, yet the numbers are opposite, it looks really really suspicious.

    Btw. We knew this before, and I’m stating the obvious here but the new voting system is absolutely ridiculous. Denmark receives 3% of Italian televotes which is the 6th most but Italy gives the full 12 to Denmark in the final.
    Only teardrops must have really grown on the Italian jury considering they weren’t nearly as generous in the semi….

    • john kef

      My friend you don’t read the numbers in the right way. Here we see percentages not the actual numbers. Since Italy was not participating in the Semi the total amount of votes could be a number of lets say 10.000-20.000.
      Who’s going to vote in a semi final for a country that’s not participating or have a particular interest? -Diaspora.So the numbers of Ukraine haven’t dropped, probably they ‘re stable in total amount of votes but in the final i suppose the votes were 40.000-50.000. The same 5.000-6.000 people that voted for Ukraine in the semi-voted also in the final but Italy has a big Romanian-Moldovan community that did support their home-country.

    • eurovicious

      Well whaddaya know.

      You’re both right. Ukraine blatantly mass-bought votes in both the semi and the final; this just had a smaller effect in the final due to the larger number of people voting.

      And Italy gives its 12 to Denmark in the final despite the Danish entry only receiving THREE PERCENT of the Italian televote – and despite Italy having only awarded Denmark six points in the semi.

      Everything about this year’s results stinks to high heaven. My worst suspicions/instincts from Saturday night are being confirmed. I’m apoplectic and I’m through with Eurovision until this is sorted. The contest is now in more danger than it has been for decades.

      Regarding Slovenia’s terrible semifinal placing (yet again), Hannah Mancini posted on Facebook: “Those who know me and what i’m capable of might agree i wasn’t up to my full potential, but i truly worked hard and gave it my all and i honestly believe that didn’t affect much the final result for reasons not worth getting into.” Even the artists know the whole thing is corrupt.

      • john kef

        My friend every year you can find statements of artists that didn’t do well and they blame the system, the allies etc. My personal opinion is that we are talking about bad loosers. Slovenia didn’t even have the support of their neighbours that traditionally has.

    • I’ve run some numbers and the Italian jury vote could potentially look like the one below to produce those overall results.

      1 – NOR
      2 – DEN
      3 – ESP
      4 – MAL
      5 – LIT
      6 – ISL/SWE
      7 – FRA/BEL
      8 – NED
      9 – HUN
      10 – GRE
      11 – GEO
      12 – AZE
      13 – UKR
      14 – ARM
      15 – MOL
      16 – RUS


      19 – ROMANIA

      • eurovicious

        Just checked this out, it adds up. Ergo the Italian result is legitimate.

        They have to change back to the 2010-2012 system. Before, any song high in the televote or high in the jury was guaranteed points. Now the televote and jury vote cancel each other out. It can’t be the case that a song that gets 3% of the televote and comes second in the jury vote gets 12 just because of the level of agreement, while a song that gets 23% of the televote gets just 1 point. What’s the incentive to vote? They’ve royally fucked up.

  • Montell

    Hi Daniel. Do you follow or watch each country’s national song selection for Eurovision? I only watch my country’s national selection but I’d be very interested in watching what other countries are preparing for Eurovision. I think it’s a good way to rate songs. It’s useful to know televoters support for the winner song and so on. What sources of information do you use?

  • DashBerlin

    re: the Azer vote buying story. If you check esctracker.com (which isn’t my site I promise despite linking it often!!!) look how the following looks suspicous.
    Malta gave 12, Cyrpus gave 8, in neither countries does the song even show up in the digital download charts….at all. No isn’t that suspicious? All those people voting for it on the night, none of them wanted to buy the song

    • eurovicious

      Exactly.

      • trollgirl

        I can very well believe that they bought votes, but i dont thinkl iTunes is the proof for this. After eu vision all the senior citizens in my family were agreeing that: oh, that azerbaidjani boy, that was the best. Because he was a clean cut, nicely dressed up, well combed boy, singing a good melody with great notes… for them. I said sometime ago that I dont think he will go down well, because he seems old fashioned to me. yet it seems this was exactly why it went down well for some. Now these people wont ever click YT, or buy on iTunes, but might very well pop one vote, just to be part of it.
        Another thing: in many eastern european countries illegal downloads are still very much the thing, people wont pay money, it wont show up on iTunes even if there is interest in the song.

        • eurovicious

          This is all true, fair point. Azerbaijan still blatantly bought votes though.

        • Montell

          In not so rich countries like Lithuania for example illegal downloading is very popular. 99% of the people just can’t afford to buy music or movies. So this iTunes thing sounds kinda funny to me 😀

          • DashBerlin

            Lets not be naive, illegal downloading is popular in every country (I’m from UK, I know more people that illegal download than buy with a ratio of about 6:1), its why record shops around the world are closing down.
            However, if other songs from the contest appear in Malta/Cyprus digital download chart, why would the song that got 12 points and presumably was popular with televotes does not even register at all

    • john kef

      Guys, i don’t mean to say that everything is ok with the voting system, but this story is based on what? some things a guy says to another guy? In the same way someone can accuse me of trying to persuade my friends to vote for a country that i had a bet on. He just might be a heavy better that bets on huge amounts of money for a country to win or be in the top4. If he’s betting in hundreds of thousands, some free phones and cards are just a small amount of money.

      The fact is that Eurovision involves also politics. Either because some countries have a common culture-language UK-Ireland, Greece-Cyprus, Ex-Yugoslavia, Ex Soviet Union, Nordic countries, Netherlands-Belgium either because they have common political views (regimes in Belarus-Azerbaijan and other ex-soviet countries where democracy is not exactly like we know it in the west)

      That affects the way people and mostly juries vote. The moment that Greece and Cyprus won’t award 12 points each other is likely improbable for the next 20-25 years. The same way Turkey and Azerbaijan exchange 12’s etc. For instance it was a shocker here in Greece that we didn’t get any points from Serbia this year.

      With the new 50-50 system some of these countries lost a little bit of their power that had to do with the diaspora votes, that was the reason Turkey withdrew this year.

      • eurovicious

        The nature of the Azeri regime being what it is, the prestige and importance they place on Eurovision (to the extent their official culture now revolves heavily around it), and the vast oil wealth at their disposal and in the hands of a despotic ruling family, do you honestly think they wouldn’t buy votes? That’s the question we need to be asking.

        To suggest the undercover video filmed in Lithuania is anything other than exactly what it appears to be is to wilfully pull the wool over one’s eyes. I’m critical of Eurovision because I love Eurovision.

        “He just might be a heavy better that bets on huge amounts of money for a country to win or be in the top4.” <- really? Including the part where he says "I’m only in charge of Lithuania" and "We’ve sent out our people to about fifteen countries", and the fact that he knows in detail how to do it without the multiple votes being detected as such? It's organised.

  • zoomraker

    Azerbaijan, was a good song with a good melody, the staging was great and the singer made a good strong connection with the camera. Like Ukraine it just came together really well on the night.

    Think a few “experts” egos have been a little bit bruised.

    • eurovicious

      All of that is true and no-one’s denying it. I like Farid, I liked the artistic staging and the song is OK. Does not change the fact that Azerbaijan bought votes, and that there is widespread jury corruption among certain countries. There is more than enough proof. I’m not going to ignore it because the entry was good (which, as you say, it was).

  • Chatterbox5200

    Azerbaijan also proved popular with my female friends, primarily due to Farid, and the effective staging. They wouldn’t download the song itself, as they don’t think much of the songs themselves, but watch the show for the entertainment value.

    I also assume that the streaming of songs through Spotify (or similar) would not register as a purchase. For those that want to listen to the song a few times after the contest, but will probably not listen to it again in a few weeks, this is quite a plausible option.

  • Montell

    Well it’s obviuos that if you want to win Eurovision, buying votes is not enaugh. You have to send something strong. Anyway, I feel very disappointed because of such things happening.

  • Me and many others have made a profit of Azerbaijan’s wrongdoings for three years in a row now, so there are no bruised egos that I’m aware of.
    Ukraine weren’t on the radar of suspicious results yet, but they certainly are now (especially if they send an artist with strong ties to Ukrainian military again)
    In hindsight, it might also worth to give the televote numbers from Ukrainian National Final another look…

    On a personal note, I’m not biased towards anything. I am simply interested in betting on Eurovision. I don’t care if it is a fair contest or if it’s completely rigged. I bet on WWE wrestling events also, and the angle there is to figure out what has been decided behind closed doors and my impression is that Eurovision will require the same approach in the future.

  • zoomraker

    wished I’d cottoned on to the potential for Azerbaijan profits 3 years ago. The 3rd time tends to be when the market catches on or things change.

    Well done to all those who were ahead of the curve.

  • DashBerlin

    I have no bruised ego over Azerbijan at all, if they were DQ now and everyone moved up 1, it would make no difference to how any of my bets turned out.
    I have no problem with Farid, it was a decent song (his vocals weren’t great*) and had very unusual memorable staging.

    The problem myself and Eurovicious (and others I’m sure) have is the dishonesty of the competition. Look at Azerbijan, it isn’t a huge country, it has no diapora to speak of, it has few countries on its borders. Therefore, it shouldn’t pick up so many votes and 12s (more than the winner) unless its a standout song. The pattern of every year, where Azerbijan scores big points from the same nations is suspicious. When you look at other information gathered, its a case of vote buying without concrete evidence.

    Its clear that Azerbijan bought votes this year, the song would still probably have finished top 5, almost certain top 10 without them.

    As for Ukraine, I’m not so sure, apart from the terrible open, it had a much broader appeal in its Disney style song. Ukraine, tends to do worse on Televote than Jury too (look at 2012 for clear example)

  • stephen marriott

    i know im going to sound like ive been living in a hole in the ground for my naivety, but why the obviousness in irelands appauling result, is it really that rigged…..a: the song was in the charts of 17 different countries last weekend, are we to believe that fans who got it into those charts mysteriously ‘cold shouldered’ ryan dolan in his hour of need . b: ryan dolan had the (apparent) luxury of northern ireland voters, and believe me, we are talking thousands of voters(each voting maybe up to 50 times with people complaining the line was constantly engaged) yet uk mustered up 1 lousy point, the song was appealing to EVERYBODY, and i mean everybody, that made reference to it before during and even more so after the final………. paddy powers refunded all bets on him.
    i am of the opinion(wrongly no doubt) that there was a conspiracy against him as it just seems so improbable that a song with that much going for it could be virtually whitewashed out of the final.
    on a final note, i am not complaining on behalf of ryan dolan as he will be successful anyway, this is more about my annoyance at being stupid enough to have £250 on him top ten at 5’s, seeing it contract into 13/8 generally, then the big drift on saturday back out to 11/4….. i got rid of 100 at 5/2 thankfully………… but being duped, naive, mug punter, call it what you will, that is what really hurts!!!!
    any feedback would be appreciated

  • cfahrenbach

    Dear Daniel, dear Team,
    thanks again for another year of great ESC-insights and many new thoughts about Planet Eurovision (a place where genuine thoughts most of the time are not a very fancy commodity)…
    I have one question though about your method of betting. From what I understood, you do hedge your bets a lot, so that you more or less bet on the expected future development of bets. I got it that you think for example that the UK is overrated at the beginning of an ESC-betting-circle most of the time (which makes a lay-bet the right thing to do) and that later, once there is more money in the market and the UK-odds are drifting you bet money on the UK winning. With the UK usually having overrated odds in the beginning this makes sense to me.
    Then again, I would have thought the same thing for Denmark this year: Right after the national final in Denmark Emmelie started with very short odds (let’s say around 3/1). I then would have expected drifting odds, because everybody thought there would be more serious contenders. At that point, a lay bet did seem to me as the right thing to do, because I was nearly 100 % sure, she would end up with at least 7/1 or 8/1. Thing is, as we all know: This didn’t happen, in the end Denmark was around 1.80/1. So there was never a moment to hedge the lay-bets I would’ve placed in the first place. I would’ve completely misjudged the upcoming odds-development (or let’s say the odd development in this case, haha) of the Danish song.

    Do you have any advice on how to avoid this trap? Or did I get something wrong about your system?

    Thanks in advance,
    Christian

  • Daniel

    Hi Christian, thanks for the kind words. Those who are looking to hedge did have a hard time this year. Denmark looked layable at various points but kept coming in, as you say.

    It’s not a tactic I use, however. I’d rather ‘back-to-win’ than ‘back-to-lay’. Every bet I make I’m looking to be a winning bet rather than one I’m just looking to hedge.

    Of course, the beauty of doing this at the best moment is that should you change your mind, you can get out without making a loss.

    But ultimately I’d rather have my profit depend on predicting the event itself rather than predicting the market.

  • Panos

    Split results out guys.

  • Boki

    Was typing some initial remarks about split vote for myself…

    Semi1:
    Moldova didn’t connect to the public as much as predicted, failed staging?
    Lithuania very high in the televote.
    Serbia didn’t reach the top10 even on televote while Montenegro 4th tele(!) and better on juries still ends up below Serbia!?
    Croatia did worse on the juries while we thought the other way around.
    Austria mad high on the jury list.
    Slovenia precisely where it belongs hehe 🙂

    Conclusion: countries with very high jury-tele absolute difference (Montenegro, Austria) suffered the lower overall placement under the new system than it should be before.

    Semi2:
    Both Greece and Azer were not punished by the juries.
    Malta got Tom Dice jury treatment while Hungary did not.
    Romania smashed the tele so juries couldn’t do anything there.
    Iceland and Israel worse on the jury list than Finland and Armenia!?
    Georgia very poor on televote with absence of friends indeed but the song didn’t connect.
    Both Swiss and Bulgaria (Salvation Army voted ?) great on tele but burried by the juries.
    Poor San Marino didn’t receive much jury support, otherwise would probably sneak in, fans could push it only to 12th tele.

    Conclusion: assumptions we make about jury votes could be very wrong.

    Final:
    Azer still not punished by the juries but Greece dropped a lot.
    Ukraine second on tele – Zlata did it somehow.
    Norway not as high some of us hoped to be.
    Russia also not so great on the jury list but televote is always there.
    I would expect Italy and Malta positions to be swapped since Malta looks more consistent but probably it wasn’t.
    Decent result for the NL on both although jury didn’t buy it as high as some hoped.
    Those borderline top10 positions are really tight.
    The rest below is a mixed bag where crazy things can happen like Ireland who took out Spain bet out.
    Cascada’s dance hit, despite the airplay and well known performer, finished only 16th on televote.

    Conclusion: clear victory for the favorite Denmark

  • My main first impressions:

    – AZE less jury/tele split than I expected (I expected jury 6th-10th).
    – SWE jury 3rd!!! REALLY???
    – MOL shockingly low with tele. why???
    – Juries didn’t really buy into GEO either.
    – GRE got exactly the ‘watch my dance’ jury/tele split expected.
    – GER bombed with both jury (expected) & tele.
    – NEVER UNDERESTIMATE ROMANIAN TELEVOTE!!

    I cannot say I have been shocked by anything though. Glad norway was so high on the televote, I was expecting a nina zilli split.

  • eurovicious

    Looking at my personal favourites this year, there’s an interesting pattern – they mostly did really well in the televote, in many cases contrary to expectations, but were heavily marked down by the juries.

    Montenegro: 4th in televote, 14th in jury vote. (I think the juries just proved how relevant they are.) Would almost certainly have qualified under previous system.
    Ireland (SF1): 6th in the televote, 10th in the jury vote.
    Lithuania (SF1): 5th in the televote, 11th in the jury vote.
    Romania (SF2): WON the televote (fuck yeah!!!!!!! #TeamCezar), 13th with juries.
    Bulgaria: 6th in the televote despite only one other Slavic country in the semi – a huge achievement. But BOTTOM in the jury vote despite tremendous musicianship, instrumentalism and originality.

    Juries preferred Natalia Kelly to Anouk in SF1. This is absolutely ridiculous. Nothing against Natalia Kelly – I love her, I think she’s great and she sang well, Austria is my favourite country in Europe and I always support Americans in Eurovision – but Birds is a whole different level of art, sophistication and musicality.

    Malta won the jury vote in SF2. *raises eyebrow*

    In the final, Iceland actually did worse in the jury vote (17th) than in the televote (12th).

    Croatia was 13th in the jury vote despite tremendous vocal prowess.

    In SF2, Marry Me beat Israel, San Marino, Armenia, Romania and Bulgaria in the jury vote. When juries are plumping for only adequately sung, unoriginal, throwaway bubblegum pop with nonsense lyrics over that level of vocal talent and musicianship, we have a problem.

    As Rob said on Twitter last night, “Juries have proved themselves beyond incompetent this year. Absolute clowns not fit for purpose. After putting in months of analysis seeing some of these jury rankings makes the ESC look more like a lottery. They have rendered so much analysis of what we perceive as proven ESC variables virtually meaningless this year.” If the juries aren’t doing their job, I can’t do mine.

    Considering that part of Turkey’s reason for withdrawing was their 2012 entry – which came 4th in the televote – being heavily marked down by juries, I think we’re going to see more withdrawals. Montenegro and Bulgaria made a real credible effort this year, and European viewers really rewarded them – only for juries to overturn this and thereby scupper their qualification chances. The delegations and domestic press are not going to be happy. Ireland was a respectable 14th in the televote in the final. Lithuania and Spain both did worse than Ireland in both rankings but got more actual points. Romania was 7th in the televote and has more Youtube views than any other song, but was ranked near-bottom by juries despite Cezar’s stellar vocal and its artistic merit. The Romanian delegation and press are not going to be happy. SRF and the Swiss press won’t be either given that Takasa came 5th in the televote.

    • trollgirl

      I agree with a lot you what say (ex austria-netherlands situation), but for me the fact that romania did so well in the televote is for me THE reason we need juries. Cezars whole entry was outrageous kitsch, nothing that should be encouraged for the future. even 13th place was way too high for that whole circus. It reminds me of esc 2005-2009, a very cheap period of the contest which I am happy it is getting away from. plus im not even sure it represents the taste of european televoters as much as the patriotic pride overloaded all over europe romanian diaspora who knew just how nonsense their entry is and thought it to be in trouble so voted like mad for it.

  • Guys, I think there is an OTT reaction in relation to what juries like and what they SHOULD like. Except the odd surprise here and there, I was not really surprised by their votes. Esc punters often get lost and forget the simple distinction between GOOD, AVERAGE and BAD song.

    I like spaghetti alla bolognese. The sauce is commonly prepared from ground beef, tomato, onion, bacon, spices, possibly cream and additional vegetables such as carrots, celery, or parsnip. The dish is often topped with a sprinkling of grated Parmigiano cheese. Now lets say that I fill a plate with cream, place a tomato in the middle of the cream bath, then empty and stuff the tomato with semi-cooked beef and bacon, add a spicy foam of onion and celery, and then heat together the cheese with the parsnip/carrots until it becomes a viscous substance in which I drown my food like fries in ketchup. Still same ingredients. But no way I would eat that shit.

    • Boki

      It’s always like that Panos, each year we conclude what they SHOULD like partially based on the previous stats, the problem is that each year we get different people there. I propose they give a 5 year mandate to jury members so we punters can count on their taste for couple of seasons at least. Btw like your spaghetti example but don’t think you are allowed to say ‘shit’ in here. Fuck either 🙂

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