Eurovision 2013: Grand Final Dress Rehearsal 1

I love France’s ‘L’Enfer et Moi’ as much as anybody but it strikes an odd tone as the show opener. Amandine Bourgeois threatening bad things on whomever has crossed her jars with the ‘We Are One’ stuff that precedes it. The number two slot is oft considered the worst of the lot, but Lithuania’s ‘Something’ does introduce viewers to a strong beat and Andrius was actually in great form this afternoon. On this evidence, it’s not propping up the scoreboard.

Moldova doesn’t stack up so badly in third either. It’s our first big Eurovision ballad of the evening, and that along with the staging may help it stick in viewers’ minds longer than plenty of others following it. I’m not sure how healthy it is for Finland’s ‘Marry Me’ to be on so early, but the camera angles and staging for this looked great once more. It’s definitely not good for Spain, though. Pleasant though the song is, it’s the polar opposite of Finland in terms of impact.

Qualifying for the final seems to have given Belgium’s Roberto Bellarosa’s confidence a tremendous boost. He was far better at putting across ‘Love Kills’ than earlier in the week. Estonia’s composition seems very old-fashioned next to it but Birgit sold it as well as she always does. Belarus offers a welcome change of pace though it still seems like we’re stuck in a previous Eurovision era. To be fair, Alyona Lanskaya was in good form this afternoon.

Coming after the slightly forced nature of Belarus emphasises the contrasting charm and warmth of Malta’s ‘Tomorrow’. Gianluca had no problems vocally, though his schtick works best with the arena full for some glad-handling during his catwalk moment. Russia too needs the crowd to help life the final chorus by waving illuminated bracelets, although the overall effect of ‘What If’ is always going to be cheesy but immediate.

Fans of ‘Glorious’ will be pleased to hear that Natalie Horler was back in top form for this rehearsal. Germany have added some extra pyros for the instrumental after the first chorus. Not all the camera angles were right here, but this was far more encouraging. Armenia suffers from coming afterwards as much as Spain isn’t helped by following Finland.

What comes next is a skit from comedy character Lynda Woodruff, which means Netherlands’ Anouk is first on after the big break. I’m not sure it’s ideal for her, but she sounded great this afternnon. She’s now followed by Romania’s Cezar who had the last laugh in the second semi-final. I’m once bitten and twice shy concerning the fate of ‘It’s My Life’.

Many UK fans were unhappy about the 15 slot, but Bonnie Tyler’s ‘Believe In Me’ works very well here as a return to sanity. The staging continues to be effective. It’s actually got better for Sweden’s ‘You’ too, I think because the camera angles are more polished.

After the pyros of the Swedish finale, Hungary’s more low-key approach is incredibly refreshing. The problem for ByeAlex is that it’s followed by the winner’s staging of Denmark’s ‘Only Teardrops’. Emmelie is looking increasingly confident on the Malmo stage.

Iceland’s Eythor is not overawed though. He’s doing his shaggy-haired, sensitive Viking thing to great effect, and ‘Eg a Lif’ offers a welcome and natural performance. Azerbaijan’s ‘Hold Me’ comes across as rather contrived in comparison, but its impact on the scoreboard shouldn’t be underestimated.

‘Alcohol Is Free’ really needs the outifts and a full arena to lift it; but the Koza Mostra boys were in fine voice. I have to admit readers, that the poorly-structured ‘Gravity’ from Ukraine has grown on me over the past week. It’s still a mess of a song, but Zlata is captivating, especially given the testosterone that surrounds her this late in the running order.

Italy’s Marco Mengoni accidentally caught the camera’s eye once as he scanned the arena. But his heartfelt performance of ‘L’essenziale’ with catwalk use for the finale does have an impact. I can’t rule out a decent finish for this either given the way the draw has helped it. Norway’s Margaret Berger was in good form; it’s becoming clear just how strong this run of songs is.

Georgia’s ‘Waterfall’ can seem more formulaic in comparison and the final minute still sounds a little shouty, but don’t discount the fact it’s the best love story viewers will get out of this Saturday night. Talking of love, Ireland has a tough set of songs to follow but it’s an entirely fitting closing number.

Initial conclusion? The producer-decided draw has created an unprecedented finale with very few duds in the last third of the running order. That makes life more difficult for punters. Let me know your thoughts below.

96 comments to Eurovision 2013: Grand Final Dress Rehearsal 1

  • Nick D.

    Struggling for safe propositions in this lot. Opposing Spain seems sensible, but otherwise… I’m going to have a nibble at Iceland top 10 (5.0 still available as I write) as I think it could slipstream Denmark very nicely, bank a healthy profit from yesterday, and pack up my tent for the year. 🙂

  • Justin

    Daniel I have had the same feelings about Ukraine too over the last week. Zlata is spectacular both on the ear and the eye – she pulls the song through. From what you say, this draw is to her advantage. I won’t be opposing Ukraine in any markets. I have completely flip-flopped with Russia. Dina comes across as dated, dumpy and uncharismatic.

    Do you think the top 10 could take 4 or even 5 ex-USSR entries? For obvious reasons I think the voting rule change will be helping this particular block.

  • Ben Cook

    There are probably about 8 to 10 songs which could potentially go top 4 which makes picking the right ones really difficult (I went for Germany, Finland, Azerbaijan and Georgia last week) though Ukraine and Norway could easily be in there too.

    Denmark does seem unbeatable for the win, even though the last third as Daniel says is extremely strong. It could be very tight for positions 2-6 or so.

  • chewy wesker

    Zlata I think has got the staging all wrong, with a 22nd place draw and her beautiful looks she needs no gimmick of a giant that’s hardly on screen for a few seconds to keep her fresh in viewers minds. Maybe she should of staged it much more simply, like Birgit. Now here’s a girl that may be one for the top ten at double digit odds. I’m already matched on betfair, and with her bun in the oven well this can only help with her televote. Azerbaijan has Farid sliding of a glass box to great affect but a top ten is maybe all he can Hope for here. Georgia has a great ballad the little lean on Nodi as the wind machine blows the dress and they look like they are sailing on a sea of dreams, although the vocals maybe a little like swimming with the shrimp (sin plus). But all I can see in the win market is Denmark. The question is Daniel are you going to give it the nod?

  • I hope I’m not pointing out the obvious here, so for those that do not know, I did a little research into iTunes chart/digital downloads chart.
    The number of sales to propel Emmelie de Forest to the number 2 slot in Sweden is not in the thousands, so bear this in mind before thinking,itunes chart show Denmark are having a great time in so many countries. This is more likely to be “true” eurovision fans buying songs and not a good reflection on the demographic of the Saturday night voters.

    I am not suggesting Denmark won’t win, nor denying that it appears to be the most popular song on the digital downloads, I am just trying to put a warning about the figures. Check here http://www.digitalsalesdata.com/diydsd.php?Region=143456 for instance shows in 24 hours, its sold just over 100 tracks on digital downloads. The level of accuracy is debatable, but it shows Daft Punk in the UK as shifting 14,000 which would be about right as its averaging 100k sales a week

    • Donald

      Catching up here but that is all valid observation re downloads. Favourites there to be beaten, wonder is Daniel thinking fire rain again. With the new running order the audience may increase towards the end of the show.

      So will be Denmark be the peak all expect it to be? Chance it may not be at the minute. We took on the favourite two years ago and got it right but only once in three years. I am late to the game this year but not 100% convinced.

      Georgia is a good ballad but Spain result last year worries me and it is not the Azerbaijan vibe from two years go either. Ireland won in Sweden before. Back to Daniel..

    • eurovicious

      This is great information and a wise warning Dash, thanks 🙂

  • Okay, I have finished my TOP 15 prediction. 11th place to 15th place are outsiders. But in a contest with 39 participating countries, mentioning the TOP 15 is more fair if you ask me:

    01) NORWAY:
    Unique from every starting grid, contemporary, hit material, best camerawork, perfect draw
    02) DENMARK:
    Certainly not a +300 points victory for Denmark. If it wins, max. 250 points
    03) GREECE:
    Televoting material, but juries will love this contemporary band too (Turkey 2010)
    04) FINLAND:
    The ‘Marie N’, the ‘Making Your Mind Up’ of 2013. Underestimated by many
    05) UKRAINE:
    M People-like song, vocals are stunning, it does matter among juries, weird act
    06) AZERBAIJAN:
    New version of ballad is more modern, fantastic staging, handsome singer
    07) ITALY:
    Wunderfully crafted Italo-ballad, singer with charisma, but the Azeri slightly better
    08) RUSSIA:
    Nice ballad, but I’m afraid Dina will not do a ‘Jade Ewen’ from that starting grid
    09) THE NETHERLANDS:
    The ‘Albania 2012’, ‘France 2009’ of this year, sadly after commercial break
    10) GEORGIA:
    Typical Eurovision stuff, composed by Thomas G:son, vocally not strong
    —————————————————–
    11) SWEDEN:
    Could still surprise us. If I will make a mistake in TOP 10, it’ll be this one
    12) ICELAND:
    Exquisit performance, normal bloke, nice close-ups, but ballad is old fashioned
    13) MALTA:
    Typical Maltese charm, singer is too cute to be true, but contender, an ‘Iceland 2011’?
    14) MOLDOVA:
    Nice ballad, modern, but bit difficult and not so good starting grid
    15) BELGIUM:
    Underestimated, composed by guy who did ‘Azerbaijan 2011’, great sound setting

    Wildcard) HUNGARY! What do you guys think of my TOP 15?

  • I think Finland has a very contemporary song, Lily Allen-esque, Pink-esque, Katy Perry-esque. On top of it, Krista is an excellent performer, sings wunderful, catches the camera fantastically. Maybe juries will rate this lower, but if juries rate Russia 2012 11th, then this will surely be TOP 10 among juries.

  • Keith

    Moldova to finish in the top 10 is my best bet. Hoping it will drift in the betting as I don’t think UK viewers will like it. Just praying you don’t tip it!

    • hansenus

      I agree with you it is a very good value.
      I already put my euros on it.
      I wouldnt expect it to drift to higher odds live.

      Particularly you can check the market and see that is the candidate with higher probabilities to top 10 spot until russia performs in number 10.

  • Keith

    The best thing about Finland is the draw. It Germany and Moldova have the best draws of the lot. Don’t like the song, think it looks cheap and she’s poor vocally, and Norway and Denmark should dominate the Scandic Bloc vote to boot. Pretty sure its going to shorten in the top 10 market as it feels typical of the trash we like and will get a big crowd reaction. I would lay it for the top 10 but given the draw and the memorable nature of the singer and female kiss there maybe some mileage. If it gets silly short I’ll lay it.

  • Any that think Denmark will win with an emphatic margin, bet365 have a handicap market, with Denmark at scratch 9/1.If it gets over 350,then a good chance there isn’t a Russia like last year and you might have a the rest between 100-250 points (I’m not taking a chance on this market, but thought I’d mention it)

  • Hercc

    I have a Question to Daniel:
    Does the break (Lynda Woodruff…) do something to Anouk? Is it more difficult, because the audience needs to focus again, or anything like that? Or does she have enough presence to catch everyone as if there never has been a break at all?

  • eurovicious

    Starting to think I may have been wrong about this year’s likely vote spread in my last article. In 2011, there was huge disparity between televoters and juries, with the result that under the old system, points were more evenly distributed among the acts. Hence we got countries like Slovenia and Austria picking up a reasonable amount of points despite coming near-bottom of the televote. This can’t happen this year. With the two rankings combined at individual country level, we’re going to be looking at the same select entries that boast both high jury-friendliness and high viewer-friendliness getting points from most countries. We could see a new pie chart altogether – a group of 10-15 countries getting a lot of points and all being quite close, while the rest fight over scraps and come away with little. And with Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Ukraine, and even Moldova and Estonia all providing entries that tick both boxes, the former USSR has brought a much stronger A-game than western Europe. It’s going to be the battle of the former Soviet republics.

    Counting Israel and former Yugoslavia as “eastern”, we have 20 eastern European and 19 western European countries voting and competing. What wins will depends on what translates best (sorry, obvious statement, I know, but it needs reiterating in light of the new system – a low televote in country X can’t be pulled up by a high jury vote). The four “surprise” NQs from Tuesday and Thursday – Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria and Israel – were songs that failed to translate. Under the old system I suspect all but Bulgaria would have qualified, with Israel and Croatia getting through on predominantly on jury and Serbia predominantly on televote.

    I remain unconvinced of Norway’s international appeal. The Verfremdungseffekt of the opening technothrob (to borrow a phrase from @chrispoppe that I wish I’d come up with myself) and Margaret’s chilling delivery will be alienating to many and are to me; unlike Euphoria, the song’s darkness is never resolved or transformed either visually or musically, and it lacks either a hook or a strong visual or musical narrative. Basically, people want something nice.

    Denmark is the epitome of nice, including all the reasons I hate that word. Does it stand out? Yes. Does it have a good draw. Yes, suspiciously so. Does it have trans-European appeal? Within the context of Eurovision, possibly, as Fairytale and Running Scared before it. It’s not going to do a Sognu or a Rockefeller. But other songs from the former USSR have much trans-European appeal. Is it the kind of music people actually listen to? No, but neither was Fairytale. Is it too short in the odds? Absurdly so. Do I want it to win? No, I can’t stick it. Do I want to come to Copenhagen next year because it’s near and I’ll barely have time to see it this year? Yes. Do I hope Emmelie slips on the glitter and breaks her pelvis? Not really, but the Sara Jovanovic-shaped devil on my shoulder TOTALLY DOES while I stare innocently into the middle distance. Am I touching it betting-wise? No. If anything a speculative value lay at this stage.

    Anouk performs Birds with tremendous warmth and radiance; despite the Netherland’s low voting power and recent track record, I havefar fewer concerns about its appeal than I did before rehearsals began. I don’t think it will win but I think it’s pretty nailed on for top 10, as a standout jury favourite and a performance that will pick up televotes for similar reasons Magdi Ruzsa did in 2007 and Tom Dice did to a lesser extent in 2010. Under the new system though, it may only be in the lower reaches of the top 10 if there is high televoter-jury disparity.

    End of thoughts.

    • I know I lack your depth of Eurovision analysis: I always learn something new or a different angle from reading your posts.
      But I disagree when it comes to your reaction to Norway (but then I would – given the number of times I’ve backed it!).
      It could be ‘chilling’ with lyrics such as ‘you put a knife against my back, you dare me to face the attack’. I see what you mean.
      But it’s not: and the key to this is the performer, Margaret Berger. To me, she’s a gorgeous, smiley, charismatic, twinkly eyed, blonde cutie pie, dressed in a figure-hugging virginal white dress.
      Specific examples of the cuteness factor on the Youtube vid I’ve watched (a few times!):

      1:02 – 1:05,’I can’t touch the feeling’ – delightful,playful expression and bonus wrinkling of of nose.
      1:34 – 1:44 – wonderful fun-loving warmth and breaks out into as much joyous join-the-party dancing as her outfit allows. Shades of Lena, for me.
      1:51 – 1:53 – ‘Give me a kiss’- palm on hip and playfully demanding (in a come-her-lover way).
      2:26 – 2:29 – ‘…for cowards’ – what could and should be intimidating, she converts into something deliberately melodramatic and thus non-threatening.
      Plus, there is the interplay of a strong,powerful, confident large breasted woman singing those lyrics and spending much of the song (sexily) looking over her shoulder exposing her unguarded back to the camera and viewer.
      Plenty for men and women to vote for.

      Last year’s winner was so dark it almost gothic. I couldn’t see Loreen’s face for most of the performance, let alone what she was wearing, what with the spotlights aiming from behind the stage. She looked like a ghost. She have been euphoric but she was a euphoric ghost.

      When you say I Feed You My Love ‘lacks either a hook or a strong visual or musical narrative’ I don’t follow. We must be watching different performances.

      However, I got stuck into Bulgaria to qualify, so what do I know?!

      .

  • eurovicious

    One more thing (there always is): I’m not sure how juries will respond to Greece. I think it will get a huge televote. Juries? Not sure. It’s so slapstick – it’s fun but not sophisticated. Juries have a lot of great voices to choose from. I don’t honestly think it’ll do the “jury drop” and I think juries will like it more – quite a lot more – than Turkey last year. But I don’t honestly want to risk backing it for top 10 at the current odds when middling jury scores Europe-wide could bring it right down to the borderline. I don’t think it’s value. Georgia top 10 at almost the same odds is back of the net.

    • chewy wesker

      Georgia back of the net, here here. I love it ev, you put so much time an effort into your break down of it all. I think Greece won’t make the top ten myself and match bet between Greece v Georgia Nodi & Sophy back of the net 1-0

  • eurovicious

    My top 10 call (before having seen the rehearsal of the final which I will be doing tomorrow afternoon) in running order:

    Russia
    Germany
    Armenia
    Netherlands
    Hungary (but aha)
    Denmark
    Azerbaijan
    Ukraine
    Norway
    Georgia

    • Alex

      Is that your top ten best value countries? Presumably you think Greece are more likely than Hungary in pure % likelihood terms, but don’t want to back 1/2. I have assumed as if you make Hungary more likely than Greece you should have your house on some big priced matchbet between the two

      • eurovicious

        I don’t have a house 😉 I’m not touching Greece for top 10 as I don’t think it represents value at present. There’s too much risk of it failing with juries

  • Stop please. I am Dutch. I am used to bad scoring. That makes it easier for me to judge the entries dispassionately and objectively. But now with the above reviews. Aaaargh :-/. My nails are gone already. I will watch Eurovision 1983 now.

  • Hey Daniel,

    Would you happen to know to what extent the break after Armenia will be used as a commercial break, as opposed to just break for a skit? I guess it could differ from country to country. To me, the difference could be huge as the former might cause viewers to leave the sofa or switch channel, while the latter probably wouldn’t to such a high extent.

    Oh, and another thing – do you know about what time the voting order will be released? I seem to remember it being early afternoon last year.

    Cheers!

  • Daniel

    Hi squall, two excellent questions. I’m not sure of the answer to the first – as you say, depends on each country. Second answer: it was around 3pm that the information broke last year. As always, I’ll try and be first with the news here. 🙂

  • Boki

    Hi Daniel, can you tell us a little more about Marco’s behaviour? According Gav he’s “grabbing his crotch”, sounds really weird.

    • Daniel

      He was a little red-faced, and on two occasions a camera shot saw him putting his knees together and holding onto the bottom of his underpants like a cartoon character needing to go to the toilet.

      It did look a little strange but I wonder whether jurors will think it’s the emotion he’s putting into the song, and won’t mind at all. Hard to say.

  • I have some interesting markets some may be interested in, which I have already taken advantage of. They are with bet365
    Spain to finish last is 2.62 (sorry I bet it at 3.75 and didn’t realise it had been cut so soon)
    Spain to finish 24th-26th position is 1.72, as Daniel mentioned the vocals weren’t good in the jury rehearsal and we haven’t seen Spain perform well with televotes and this years song doesn’t seem likely to do much better.

    Match bet – Moldova v Malta, Moldova to win at 1.5 (again this has been cut tonight but still good value for me). Moldova should pick up more televotes than Malta and will surely score much better in jurys, some (including myself) see Moldova as top 10 material. History shows Malta struggle to gain much televote support and although its a quirky nice song, its likely to be forgotten.

    My personal top 10 bets are Greece (likely to benefit along with Azerbijan the most from the lack of Balkan entries and you know they’re getting 12 from Cyrpus at least!). I know some people have expressed concern about jury support, even with average 10-20 jury scores, the televote support will get it over 100 points. I have a feeling Daniel might agree with me here.
    Romania top 10, horrific staging, crazy song it may be, people will remember it and Romania do get good televote support. The mystery is what jurys make of it, vocally Cezar is very good, so I’m hoping some give him big marks! At the 4.5 price, its worth a punt.

    My other 2 I’m going back to my bets from the Semis in Estonia and Moldova. Estonia (as the good Eurovicious reminded us) have plenty of allies and will surely score high with the juries. Speculative at around 10/1, but worth the speculation….we remember Kula from last year, not many fancied that. Moldova, I’ve talked about this before, great voice, excellently staged, Pasha got 11th last year (all be it from a plum draw), this song seems to be better.

    I can pick enough holes in most of the top 10 in the betting, so a few value plays along with Greece.

    Your thoughts are welcome 🙂

    • chewy wesker

      Dash I’m with you all the way on Estonia top ten a repeat of last year. Birgit is little early on than last year, but hey that didn’t stop Albania who were drawn 3rd. Five top ten places came from the first half last year. I expect about the same this year too.

    • eurovicious

      That sounds good to me Dash. 🙂

  • I’ve not read everybody’s comments here but I’ll just say this regarding whatever people may be thinking on the running order.

    Last year, on televotes alone, the Grannies sang from position #6, and finished a mere ten points behind Sweden. Just ten. Early draws can win.

  • 100% agree with you Guildo on Norway. Margaret has a brooding, strong presence and the song is aggressive. That’s sexy. She’s the dominatrix of 2013. She also may appeal to any feminists (with Finland providing the stark contrast there!)

    I do however agree with Eurovicious that people want something nice. Denmark is nice. So is Georgia. Germany is bonafide European chart material and is also spectacularly performed. So, may the best song win.

  • Justin

    Jury voting order doesn’t speak to me in the way it did last year. Denmark’s allies are well spread out as are the USSR block. Could be that the jury vote was won by a country without a big televote following like Netherlands?

  • Justin

    Dan, you are doing a great job – just wondered if you are going to have time to do three articles today like you did last year?

    • Daniel

      Hi Justin, it will be just the one article today. Not sure if I should watch the final dress rehearsal before writing it or not. I should warn you and readers that I don’t have any ‘magic formula’ for tonight’s result. The way the draw has piled the favourites together makes it incredibly confusing, and the voting order hasn’t exactly cleared the picture. I will be rather cautious in my bets and advice today.

  • The way the singing order pans out from #1 up to Malta/Russia, it strikes me that one between Moldova at #3 or Finland at #4 may exceed expectations and go top10, Moldova most probably if they were top5 or near the top5 with the juries last night. These two songs really stand out in that part of the competition and we can’t really have 8 out of the last 10 songs go top10.

  • eurovicious

    Hi Panos, again I totally agree with you – Moldova has the most potential out of the first 10 to go top 10, though far from certain. The makeup of the top 10 in other years:

    2009: 6 from first half, 4 from second half
    2010: 3 from first half, 7 from second half (a potential precedent for this year)
    2011: 6/4
    2012: 5/5

    So given the lesser quality of the first 10 songs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 2010-shaped result.

  • Question we have to ask ourselves is: the fact that it’s normally pretty “even” in top10 finishes between first and second half, is that due to some voting/attention-technical relation, or simply to due the laws of averages and random distribution? I’d lean towards the latter being the main reason, probably with the former playing some (minor) role as well.

  • Stevie4

    Having been at the jury final last night let me add my comments “from the hall”. Denmark feels like the winner and slotted between two slowies gives it a huge boost which is missing from the run in of the biggies performing 20-25th. With the later songs is just feels like a slew of very good songs but nothing stands out as warm as Denmark.

    Having hated and bet against Zlata for weeks, I too am doing an about turn. She sounds and looks awesome and it is far catchier a song than I gave it credit for. Marco has zero stage presence and very much did look like a wee boy who needed the toilet. Georgia have been my favourite from day one and seeing it live gave me goosebumps but……they totally over egg the pudding for the last minute. Top ten for sure and I would love a podium finish but I’d rather keep my money safe with the former bet.

    Unfortunately poor Bonnie started off like a crazy Britney Spears but recovered well for the last minute. The crowd adore her but I think the song is too pedestrian for top 10.

    It’s hard where to put Romania as the youngsters in the crowd went mental and that boy can really hold his notes. Perhaps it is worth a small nibble for top ten but not enough to get your fingers burned.

    Natalie brings the most chart friendly song but everyone around just compared it to Euphoria. With regards to vocals though Krista is far more on point.

    Spain was my toilet break and I’ve reduced my exposure on any qualifier being last by adding Spain on bet365.

    I was lucky enough to meet some of the artists as they are waiting to begin the procession on stage. Emilie was sweet charming and when I told her I had money on her for the win, she promised to give her best and make me rich. Margaret did her customary dance for me and Nodi and Sophie were very sweet. My husband is Italian and spoke to Marco who responded in a way which suggested he is too cool for school and that this is way beneath him. His arrogance transcends on stage and although the song is quite rightly a jury magnet, I just cannot get the image of him grabbing his crotch out of my head.

    Good luck tonight everyone and thanks for all your guidance over these past month, especially Daniel. Be good to hear your big bets after last night Daniel

  • Simon "le chat"

    Azerbaijan to be in top 3. My only bet. Why have any others when you have a nailed on selection.
    Why should this song flourish
    1. Memorable melody
    2. Fab mystical harmony on second verse
    3. Great draw
    4. Handsome singer

    If I was having a second bet it would be to sell the favourite all day. She may look confident like the winner elect but my forcast is it will end in “teardrops” bcause the song aint THAT good.
    8/13? Yer must be jaw-king man!

  • P

    Be careful betting your money on norway. This competition is largely decided by women, children, and feminine men. I think Norway is the best song by far, but it will not do good with the people voting in this competition. Its in most mens nature not to waste a dime on anything that does not matter and I dont see it beeing the favourite among women, children or gays. Dont believe in that “feminist vote” either. Im not saying it cant win, but dont bet your house that it will, you might be dissapointed seeing it come in 5th.

    • Norway is one of my top 3 favourite songs. I like almost everything about it, I (foolishly) backed it for outright win a couple of weeks ago.
      I see it as the mostly likely shorty to bounce out the top 10 though

      • P

        I bet on it too but I traded in a small amount of it, but I will leave some in mostly for fun. Prolly Denmark will win, but its not for sure, they might get some “denmark tears drop” headlines after the night 🙂 I’ve hedged my bets on the outright market..

    • My lack of knowledge re voting demographics could prove my undoing.
      It seems I’m pinning my hopes on last year’s winner having set a precedent, and my reading of I Feed You My Love as the heir to that precedent.
      I’m thinking that if a ghost-gypsy freestyling martial arts forms in the dark, before performing a finishing move on a large black man draws a winning total of 372 points then there is cause for hope that a tigress-kitten, Scandinavian blonde beauty in spectral, virginal, figure-hugging white unleashing a similarly edgy, dominant and broodingly lit performance (to a terrific song that reminds of chart tracks of 10 to 15 years ago) will similarly attract big voting support.

      Solely working off 2013’s last year’s top 4 of:
      Sweden
      Russia
      Serbia
      Azerbaijan

      – would suggest to me a top 4 this year of:
      Norway – for some of the reasons stated.
      Ukraine – the staging successor to the ridiculous grannies.
      Georgia – picture-postcard balladeering.
      Moldova – that dress and the powerful singing.

      All very cushion-memory and subjective of me, I know!

      Also, I wonder if the minimalist staging of the Netherland’s entry appeals more in these hard, austere times then it would 5 years ago.
      The opposite to this: I wonder if the expensive-looking, OTT, triumphant staging for Denmark (in combination with it being a “favoured” favourite might, in these times, slightly work against it?

  • Kelly Ann

    I’ve just put a tentative bet on Hungary being top 10 following its surprisingly strong showing (the best of any semi 2 entry) on iTunes charts around Europe.

  • Ben Cook

    Feminine men?! Well if you mean gay men, Norway is a big favourite with the (predominantly) gay ESC fans. It’s the general public that won’t get it. It’s another “Taken By A Stranger” I think.

  • P

    Is it? Why? I just saw a poll that had romania and some other songs in the top.

  • Tish

    Looking to be Denmark then after all the analysis?

  • P

    Anyone seen any good promotions from bookmakers on eurovision except betvictor and ladbrokes?

    • Roach

      Just do bear in mind that Victors will promptly close your account, should you have any kind of decent win…

      • P

        They actually had closed my old account, but I think I only played poker on that account, not sure why they closed it. I opened a account today. Sucks with bookmakers not willing to take the risk of loosing. Thanx for the heads up!

        Better stick to betfair 🙂

  • Chatterbox5200

    Daniel – Does the announcement of the jury voting order give any big hints as to who might be fighting it out for the win? I read that “The voting order has been determined by the results from last night’s Jury Final. An algorithm has been created to try and make the voting as exciting as possible.”

  • Ben Cook

    It doesn’t look as obvious from the voting order as it did last year. There are 4 ex-Yugos voting in the last 8, but they’ve got no one to vote for except possibly Greece, but you wouldn’t have expected a big jury vote for them.

    I did a quick look at who voted for Denmark in 2011 (last time they were top 5), and the first 20 countries to vote tonight gave them a total of 55, and the second 19 gave them 70. Not a massive increase and the song is of course quite different, so this is not as helpful as last year comparing Eric Saade with Loreen.

    • john kef

      My estimation of the Greek votes from the balkan region
      Cyprus 12
      Albania 10-12
      Serbia 8-10
      Macedonia 3-5
      Bulgaria 7-10
      Romania 7-10
      Croatia 3-5

      a total of 50-60 points. Keep in mind that in the balkan region even with the juries, politics are always involved

      • Thanks john kef. Are you also from the region?

      • Boki

        While the rest seems ok they will get guaranteed 0 from Macedonia due to their conflict.

        • john kef

          Boki, despite the conflict Greece almost always gets some small points from Macedonia and with this year’s absence of the rest of the neigbours, i’m confident that Macedonia ‘ll certainly award Greece with some points

          • Boki

            Last 4 years got 0 so I don’t expect much.

          • john kef

            Final ’08- 3 pts
            Semi ’10- 3pts
            Final 11- 3pts

            No Albania-Bosnia-Serbia-Turkey present, i’m expecting 3-5 points for Greece

          • john kef

            From the 2004 era with the Semi finals, Macedonia voted for Greece 8-11 times with an average of 3.64 pts

          • Boki

            You won 🙂

          • john kef

            john kef
            May 18, 2013 at 1:55 pm · Reply

            My estimation of the Greek votes from the balkan region
            Cyprus 12/check 12
            Albania 10-12/ check 10
            Serbia 8-10/ 0 i believe televoting didn’t work and used jury only
            Macedonia 3-5/ check 4
            Bulgaria 7-10/ check 7
            Romania 7-10/ check 7
            Croatia 3-5/ check 5

            i’m on fire!

  • Chatterbox5200

    Last year, only four countries gave the clear competition favourite (Sweden) a score of 5 points or less. One of these was Portugal who are not taking part this year. Of the remaining three countries, two of them – San Marino and Albania – are within the first three countries to vote this year. If they once again do not give high scores to the favourite, could they have been selected to vote early, to hide how popular Denmark is at the start?

    • Tim B

      Good spot, Chatterbox5200. Also, San Marino and Albania sometimes use jury votes only, so their votes may be way out of sync with everywhere else.

  • Donald

    Voting order not revealing much, except maybe some friendly voting for Georgia or Greece.

    Maybe it close between Greece, Denmark, Ireland and Georgia?

    Possibly France hold a key to voting, Might be worth a closer look at historic voting for France and Switzerland and good old Cyprus in their late also.

    Waiting for Daniel post but I do not think Denmark as strong as it made out be especially with so many strong songs on the outro of the show.

    Greece is tempting that the public vote might do the trick for them this year as opposed to Russia last year. Georgia I like but Pastora result last year putting me off a bit but I do like the song. As said waiting for Daniel for outright win bet.

    Good luck to all.

  • Donald

    This might be worth a read, see the section regional block voting, especially Cyprus and Greece and Lithuania and Georgia, That three of last six voting countries tonight indicators.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_at_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest

  • Nick D.

    A very rough breakdown of where the votes for jury winners Italy 2011 and Sweden 2012 fell in the voting order:

    2011: 1-10: 11, 11-21: 45, 22-32: 62, 33-43: 71
    2012: 1-10: 74, 11-21: 87, 22-32: 109, 33-42: 102

    I reckon the jury winner has absolutely got to be the Balkan favourite, and if not for reports of a questionable jury final performance I’d assume obviously Italy. But Italy’s also getting the first 12 of the night… Moldova? Surely it’s not bloody Romania with his vocals, originality and overall impression??????? 😮 #fuddled

  • CB29

    someone should ask Paddy Power to add Greece to their UK 12 points market.

  • CB29

    seeing as PP quote

    Denmark 4/6
    Ukraine 4/1
    Norway 9/2
    Ireland 5/1
    Italy 14/1
    Russia 14/1
    others on request

    and that already adds up to a 128% book I’d be hoping for a bit more. Chance of a juicy price if you are lucky.

  • CB29

    They obviously didn’t consider them in the first 6 in the betting, unless they deliberately left them out, so by rights they should offer at least 14/1 if you ask. Often doesn’t work out that way but worth a try for the right account.

  • CB29

    you are just relying on the jury imo. which admittedly could be anything…they gave Switzerland 12 points 2 years ago and Switzerland came last, so I reckon the UK jury could be a bit clueless 🙂 I reckon the GBP put them top of the televote

  • CB29

    I have a question for Dan if he spots this and doesn’t mind answering? Last year France came bottom of the televote with zero points. Their performance in the final was beyond bad and clearly out of tune, yet somehow the jury gave them 80 points. Do you remember how they did in the jury dress rehearsal because it takes some digesting that they got 80 points?

    • Daniel

      Hi CB, I watched the French jury rehearsal last year. I can honestly say it was even worse than the performance on the Saturday night.

  • trollgirl

    I have a feeling either azerbaijan or georgia will be the preference of balkan juries…

  • P

    I think the first countries in the voting list will give more points to Norway and the later half to Denmark. I think this is what the list tells us. Norways a little more urban sounding will do well with the first half and northern countries while Denmark have a little east/south folk music touch to it and might have gone better with the countries on the second half.

  • P

    So there u have it. Denmark wins 😛

  • CB29

    Thanks for the reply Dan. Quite staggering then!

  • CB29

    Maybe there was some sympathy scoring for the French fave. bombing the year before and I mean that in all seriousness

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